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At least 217 records · Page 12

Quantifying Long-Term Changes in Carbon Stocks and Forest Structure from Amazon Forest Degradation

Despite sustained declines in Amazon deforestation, forest degradation from logging and firecontinues to threaten carbon stocks, habitat, and biodiversity in frontier forests along the Amazon arcof deforestation. Limited data on the magnitude of carbon losses and rates of carbon recoveryfollowing forest degradation have hindered carbon accounting efforts and contributed to incompletenational reporting to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Wecombined annual time series of Landsat imagery and high-density airborne lidar data to characterizethe variability, magnitude, and persistence of Amazon forest degradation impacts on abovegroundcarbon density (ACD) and canopy structure. On average, degraded forests contained 45.1% of thecarbon stocks in intact forests, and differences persisted even after 15 years of regrowth. Incomparison to logging, understory fires resulted in the largest and longest-lasting differences in ACD.Heterogeneity in burned forest structure varied by fire severity and frequency. Forests with a historyof one, two, and three or more fires retained only 54.4%, 25.2%, and 7.6% of intact ACD,respectively, when measured after a year of regrowth. Unlike the additive impact of successive fires,selective logging before burning did not explain additional variability in modeled ACD loss andrecovery of burned forests. Airborne lidar also provides quantitative measures of habitat structure thatcan aid the estimation of co-benefits of avoided degradation. Notably, forest carbon stocks recoveredfaster than attributes of canopy structure that are critical for biodiversity in tropical forests, includingthe abundance of tall trees. We provide the first comprehensive look-up table of emissions factors forspecific degradation pathways at standard reporting intervals in the Amazon. Estimated carbon lossand recovery trajectories provide an important foundation for assessing the long-term contributionsfrom forest degradation to regional carbon cycling and advance our understanding of the currentstate of frontier forests.

Rappaport, Danielle I.↗

Role of heating and turbulent heat transfer in HE burning and detonation

Enhanced heat transfer model has been developed due to the turbulence in the cracks and pores in the burning fractured HE. This turbulence then serves in the initialization of the turbulence in the product gas. Enhanced heat transfer is also modeled in the turbulent product gas. Numerical simulations of the onset of HE burning and transition to detonation have been performed with and without the turbulent heat transfer model. Computational results indicate that onset of chemical reactions and transition to detonation is induced by the shockwave formed by the pressure rise caused by the heating. In other words, processes similar to shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) could become the driving mechanism for HE explosion and detonation in the case of heating rather than the temperature alone.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Asian Outflow and Trans-Pacific Transport of Carbon Monoxide and Ozone Pollution: An Integrated Satellite, Aircraft, and Model Perspective

Satellite observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument are combined with measurements from the Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission over the northwest Pacific and with a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) to quantify Asian pollution outflow and its trans-Pacific transport during spring 2001. Global CO column distributions in MOPITT and GEOS-CHEM are highly correlated (R(exp 2) = 0.87), with no significant model bias. The largest regional bias is over Southeast Asia, where the model is 18% too high. A 60% decrease of regional biomass burning emissions in the model (to 39 Tg/yr) would correct the discrepancy; this result is consistent with TRACE-P observations. MOPITT and TRACE-P also give consistent constraints on the Chinese source of CO from fuel combustion (181 Tg CO/yr). Four major events of trans-Pacific transport of Asian pollution in spring 2001 were seen by MOPITT, in situ platforms, and GEOS-CHEM. One of them was sampled by TRACE-P (26-27 February) as a succession of pollution layers over the northeast Pacific. These layers all originated from one single event of Asian outflow that split into northern and southern plumes over the central Pacific. The northern plume (sampled at 6-8 km off California) had no ozone enhancement. The southern subsiding plume (sampled at 2-4 km west of Hawaii) contained a 8 - 17 ppbv ozone enhancement, driven by decomposition of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) to nitrogen oxides (NOx). This result suggests that PAN decomposition in trans-Pacific pollution plumes subsiding over the United States could lead to significant enhancements of surface ozone.

Heald, Colette L.↗

Assessing the effects of landcover and land use change on wildfire exposure and risk to communities and olive orchards in Mediterranean landscapes

A growing concern in the Mediterranean region is that recent landcover and land use change is increasing wildfire risk, or the exposure and impacts of wildfire to valued resources. However, the magnitude of these effects is not well understood given the widely diverse landscapes of communities, natural vegetation, and agricultural land. In this study, we use wildfire simulation modeling to assess how landcover and land use changes in three areas of southern Greece have affected exposure of- and fire risk to- communities and economically important permanent agriculture such as Olea europaea (European olive) orchards. We mapped agricultural and wildland fuel change from 2000 to 2020 and simulated fuel scenarios in agricultural land to assess the impacts of agricultural land practices, such as understory clearing, on fire risk. We show that wildfire exposure and risk to communities and permanent agriculture has increased in some areas due to natural fuel densification and decreased in other areas, mainly due to agricultural land expansion. These results highlight that wildfire exposure and risk are driven by local conditions including density and location of communities, spatial arrangement of natural fuels and agricultural land, and agricultural land use practices. Human settlement burn probability and modeled permanent crop loss increased with greater unmaintained agricultural area in all study areas, emphasizing the importance of agricultural land maintenance practices, such as understory clearing, to reduce fuel continuity and fire intensity. Ultimately, quantitative fire risk analyses such as this study provide a useful framework to identify areas of concern where either fuel mitigation or landowner incentives to maintain agricultural land in a less-burnable condition could be applied.

Aaron M Sparks↗

Aircraft Emission Inventories Projected in Year 2015 for a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) Universal Airline Network

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCT's) on a universal airline network.Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The objective of this work was to evaluate the changes in geographical distribution of the HSCT emissions as the fleet size grew from 500 to 1000 HSCT's. For this work, a new expanded HSCT network was used and flights projected using a market penetration analysis rather than assuming equal penetration as was done in the earlier studies. Emission inventories on this network were calculated for both Mach 2.0 and Mach 2.4 HSCT fleets with NOx cruise emission indices of approximately 5 and 15 grams NOx/kg fuel. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer attitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

Baughcum, Steven L.↗

Type Ia supernovae deflagration-to-detonation transition explosions powered by the Zel’dovich reactivity gradient mechanism

ABSTRACT Our aim in this work is to identify and explain the necessary conditions required for an energetic explosion of a Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf. We construct and analyse weakly compressible turbulence models with nuclear burning effects for carbon/oxygen plasma at a density expected for the deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) to occur. We observe the formation of carbon deflagrations and transient carbon detonations at early times. As turbulence becomes increasingly inhomogeneous, sustained carbon detonations are initiated by the Zel’dovich reactivity gradient mechanism. The fuel is suitably preconditioned by the action of compressive turbulent modes with wavelength comparable to the size of resolved turbulent eddies; no acoustic wave is involved in this process. Oxygen detonations are initiated, aided either by reactivity gradients or by collisions of carbon detonations. The observed evolutionary time-scales are found to be sufficiently short for the above process to occur in the expanding, centrally ignited massive white dwarf. The inhomogeneous conditions produced prior to the DDT might be of consequence for the chemical composition of the outer ejecta regions of Type Ia supernovae from the single degenerate channel, and offer the potential for validation of the proposed model.

Brooker, E.↗

Mitigating Satellite-Based Fire Sampling Limitations in Deriving Biomass Burning Emission Rates: Application to WRF-Chem Model over the Northern sub-Saharan African Region

Largely used in several independent estimates of fire emissions, fire products based on MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting satellites have a number of inherent limitations, including (a) inability to detect fires below clouds, (b) significant decrease of detection sensitivity at the edge of scan where pixel sizes are much larger than at nadir, and (c) gaps between adjacent swaths in tropical regions. To remedy these limitations, an empirical method is developed here and applied to correct fire emission estimates based on MODIS pixel level fire radiative power measurements and emission coefficients from the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) biomass burning emission inventory. The analysis was performed for January 2010 over the northern sub-Saharan African region. Simulations from WRF-Chem model using original and adjusted emissions are compared with the aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from MODIS and AERONET as well as aerosol vertical profile from CALIOP data. The comparison confirmed an 30-50% improvement in the model simulation performance (in terms of correlation, bias, and spatial pattern of AOD with respect to observations) by the adjusted emissions that not only increases the original emission amount by a factor of two but also results in the spatially continuous estimates of instantaneous fire emissions at daily time scales. Such improvement cannot be achieved by simply scaling the original emission across the study domain. Even with this improvement, a factor of two underestimations still exists in the modeled AOD, which is within the current global fire emissions uncertainty envelope. Plain Language Summary Polar-orbiting satellites sensors, such as MODIS, have limitations in detecting fires under clouds or when viewing angles are large or in the gaps among satellites' different ground swaths. Here we developed an empirical method to mitigate the effect of these limitations in fire emission estimate. The method is applied to a fire emission inventory (FEER) based on MODIS. We show that, with our method, the adjusted emission inventory improves WRF-Chem simulation of smoke transport and distribution.

emissions properties↗

Abundances and Transients from Neutron Star–White Dwarf Mergers

Abstract We systematically investigate the mergers of neutron star–white dwarf binaries from beginning to end, with a focus on the properties of the inflows and outflows in accretion disks and their electromagnetic emissions. Using population synthesis models, we determine a subset of these binaries in which the white dwarf companion undergoes unstable mass transfer and complete tidal disruption, forming a large accretion disk around the neutron star. The material evolves according to a one-dimensional advection-dominated accretion-disk model with nuclear burning, neutrino emissions, and disk-surface wind ejection. The extreme dynamics of the entire process have proven difficult to analyze, and thus currently, the properties are poorly understood. The outflows from the mergers are iron- and nickel-rich, giving rise to optical and infrared emissions powered by the decay of the radioactive iron-type isotopes, calculated via the SuperNu light-curve code. We find these systems capable of powering bright, yet short-lived, optical transients with the potential to power gamma-ray bursts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Isotopic anomalies from neutron reactions during explosive carbon burning

The heavy isotopic anomalies observed recently in the fractionation and unknown nuclear inclusions from the Allende meteorite are explained by neutron reactions during the explosive carbon burning (ECB). This model produces heavy anomalies in the same zone where Al-26 and O-16 are produced, thus reducing the number of source zones required for the isotopic anomalies. Unlike the classical r-process, the ECB n-process avoids the problem with the Sr anomaly and may resolve the problem of conflicting time scales between Al-26 and the r-process isotopes I-129 and Pu-244. Experimental studies of Zr and Ce isotopic composition are proposed to test this model.

Lee, T.↗

Analysis of variability in the burst oscillations of the accreting millisecond pulsar XTE J1814-338

The accreting millisecond pulsar XTE J1814-338 exhibits oscillations at the known spin frequency during Type I X-ray bursts. The properties of the burst oscillations reflect the nature of the thermal asymmetry on the stellar surface. We present an analysis of the variability of the burst oscillations of this source, focusing on three characteristics: fractional amplitude, harmonic content and frequency. Fractional amplitude and harmonic content constrain the size, shape and position of the emitting region, whilst variations in frequency indicate motion of the emitting region on the neutron star surface. We examine both long-term variability over the course of the outburst, and short-term variability during the bursts. For most of the bursts, fractional amplitude is consistent with that of the accretion pulsations, implying a low degree of fuel spread. There is however a population of bursts whose fractional amplitudes are substantially lower, implying a higher degree of fuel spread, possibly forced by the explosive burning front of a precursor burst. For the first harmonic, substantial differences between the burst and accretion pulsations suggest that hotspot geometry is not the only mechanism giving rise to harmonic content in the latter. Fractional amplitude variability during the bursts is low; we can only rule out the hypothesis that the fractional amplitude remains constant at the l(sigma) level for bursts that do not exhibit photospheric radius expansion (PRE). There are no significant variations in frequency in any of the bursts except for the one burst that exhibits PRE. This burst exhibits a highly significant but small (= 0.1Hz) drop in frequency in the burst rise. The timescale of the frequency shift is slower than simple burning layer expansion models predict, suggesting that other mechanisms may be at work.

Watts, Anna L.↗

Air Quality Modeling Using the NASA GEOS-5 Multispecies Data Assimilation System

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS) has been expanded to include chemically reactive tropospheric trace gases including ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). This system combines model analyses from the GEOS-5 model with detailed atmospheric chemistry and observations from MLS (O3), OMI (O3 and NO2), and MOPITT (CO). We show results from a variety of assimilation test experiments, highlighting the improvements in the representation of model species concentrations by up to 50% compared to an assimilation-free control experiment. Taking into account the rapid chemical cycling of NO2 when applying the assimilation increments greatly improves assimilation skills for NO2 and provides large benefits for model concentrations near the surface. Analysis of the geospatial distribution of the assimilation increments suggest that the free-running model overestimates biomass burning emissions but underestimates lightning NOx emissions by 5-20%. We discuss the capability of the chemical data assimilation system to improve atmospheric composition forecasts through improved initial value and boundary condition inputs, particularly during air pollution events. We find that the current assimilation system meaningfully improves short-term forecasts (1-3 day). For longer-term forecasts more emphasis on updating the emissions instead of initial concentration fields is needed.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

Helium-burning flashes on an accreting neutron star - A model for X-ray burst sources

Detailed numerical models of X-ray bursts resulting from thermonuclear flashes near the surface of an accreting neutron star have been constructed. The models assume a nonrotating nonmagnetized spherically accreting neutron star of 1.4 solar masses, radius 6.6 km, core temperature in the range from 250 million to 570 million K, and accretion rate in the range (0.3-3) x 10 to the 17th power g/s. Under many conditions the helium-burning shell undergoes thermonuclear flashes that result in the emission of X-ray bursts, the gross properties of which are remarkably similar to those of most observed X-ray burst sources. Neutron stars with moderately low core temperatures, low accretion rates, and weak magnetic fields are most likely to produce X-ray bursts.

Joss, P. C.↗

Methanol Droplet Combustion in Oxygen-Inert Environments in Microgravity

The Flame Extinguishment (FLEX) experiment that is currently underway in the Combustion Integrated Rack facility onboard the International Space Station is aimed at understanding the effects of inert diluents on the flammability of condensed phase fuels. To this end, droplets of various fuels, including alkanes and alcohols, are burned in a quiescent microgravity environment with varying amounts of oxygen and inert diluents to determine the limiting oxygen index (LOI) for these fuels. In this study we report experimental observations of methanol droplets burning in oxygen-nitrogen-carbon dioxide and oxygen-nitrogen-helium gas mixtures at 0.7 and 1 atmospheric pressures. The initial droplet size varied between approximately 1.5 mm and 4 mm to capture both diffusive extinction brought about by insufficient residence time at the flame and radiative extinction caused by excessive heat loss from the flame zone. The ambient oxygen concentration varied from a high value of 30% by volume to as low as 12%, approaching the limiting oxygen index for the fuel. The inert dilution by carbon dioxide and helium varied over a range of 0% to 70% by volume. In these experiments, both freely floated and tethered droplets were ignited using symmetrically opposed hot-wire igniters and the burning histories were recorded onboard using digital cameras, downlinked later to the ground for analysis. The digital images yielded droplet and flame diameters as functions of time and subsequently droplet burning rate, flame standoff ratio, and initial and extinction droplet diameters. Simplified theoretical models correlate the measured burning rate constant and the flame standoff ratio reasonably well. An activation energy asymptotic theory accounting for time-dependent water dissolution or evaporation from the droplet is shown to predict the measured diffusive extinction conditions well. The experiments also show that the limiting oxygen index for methanol in these diluent gases is around 12% to 13% oxygen by volume.

Nayagam, Vedha↗

Numerical Modeling for Combustion of Thermoplastic Materials in Microgravity

A time-dependent, three-dimensional model is under development to predict the temperature field, burning rate, and bubble bursting characteristics of burning thermoplastic materials in microgravity. Model results will be compared with experiments performed under microgravity and normal gravity conditions. The model will then be used to study the effects of variations in material properties and combustion conditions on burning rate and combustion behavior.

Butler, Kathryn M.↗

Modeling the Absorbing Aerosol Index

We propose a scheme to model the absorbing aerosol index and improve the biomass carbon inventories by optimizing the difference between TOMS aerosol index (AI) and modeled AI with an inverse model. Two absorbing aerosol types are considered, including biomass carbon and mineral dust. A priori biomass carbon source was generated by Liousse et al [1996]. Mineral dust emission is parameterized according to surface wind and soil moisture using the method developed by Ginoux [2000]. In this initial study, the coupled CCM1 and GRANTOUR model was used to determine the aerosol spatial and temporal distribution. With modeled aerosol concentrations and optical properties, we calculate the radiance at the top of the atmosphere at 340 nm and 380 nm with a radiative transfer model. The contrast of radiance at these two wavelengths will be used to calculate AI. Then we compare the modeled AI with TOMS AI. This paper reports our initial modeling for AI and its comparison with TOMS Nimbus 7 AI. For our follow-on project we will model the global AI with aerosol spatial and temporal distribution recomputed from the IMPACT model and DAO GEOS-1 meteorology fields. Then we will build an inverse model, which applies a Bayesian inverse technique to optimize the agreement of between model and observational data. The inverse model will tune the biomass burning source strength to reduce the difference between modelled AI and TOMS AI. Further simulations with a posteriori biomass carbon sources from the inverse model will be carried out. Results will be compared to available observations such as surface concentration and aerosol optical depth.

Penner, Joyce↗

Deterrent Concentration Measurement with FTIR and Subsequent Ballistic Performance in Medium Caliber Propellant

To meet ballistic requirements, medium and small caliber propellants use deterrent coatings to obtain burn rate progressivity. The required amount and distribution of deterrent varies between gun systems, propellant types, and often between lots. Micro Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy was used to measure deterrent gradients in RP36 propellants coated with methyl centralite (MC) at different deterrent levels and different processing conditions. The aromatic C-C bonds at 1496 cm(exp -1) wavenumber were used to monitor the deterrent profiles through the grain. Deterrent gradients measured with FTIR spectroscopy were then used to estimate burn rate gradients in the deterred grains. Burn rates were calculated from literature models and from closed bomb data of RP36 containing uniform deterrent concentration. Finally, the burn rate gradients were input into an IBHFG2 model of a 200 cc-closed bomb. The early flame spreading portion of the closed bomb ballistic cycle (0 to 0.2 P/Pmax) was roughly modeled by dividing the charge up into five propellant decks and igniting them at different times in the ballistic cycle. Pressure traces and vivacity curves from closed bomb shots were compared to predictions. In addition to the burn rate gradient, the closed bomb pressure trace was heavily dependent on ignition and flame spread. These two phenomena were not readily distinguishable from one another in deterred grains. The same RP-36 propellant was shot in a 25 mm M793TP round which was again modeled with IBHVG2. Peak pressure and muzzle velocity were accurately modeled when erosive burning effects were empirically factored into the model.

Furrow, Keith W.↗