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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal Analyses of Groundwater and Shoreline Cr(VI) Concentrations in the 100 Areas at Hanford

Cleanup efforts have been ongoing since the late 1990s to remediate contaminated waste sites and groundwater in the 100 Areas at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. One of the primary contaminants of concern is hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)), which was used as a corrosion inhibitor in cooling water for nuclear reactors that formerly operated along the shoreline of the Columbia River. Cleanup efforts have included 1) removal, treatment (as needed), and disposal of contaminated sediments; 2) in situ redox manipulation as a permeable reactive barrier; 3) pump-and-treat; 4) soil flushing; and 5) monitored natural attenuation. DOE’s annual groundwater monitoring reports document the significant reductions in Cr(VI) plume areas that have occurred over the past 10 years or more as a result of these cleanup efforts. The Record of Decision for the 100-HR-3 operable unit specified a cleanup level (CUL) for Cr(VI) in groundwater of 48 µg/L to protect human receptors, and a surface water CUL of 10 µg/L to protect aquatic organisms in the Columbia River. The Record of Decision did not specify point-of-compliance locations for the surface water CUL. Data for 2019 from the six groundwater operable units (OUs) in the 100 Areas indicate that the 48 μg/L groundwater CUL has been achieved in 100% of the wells in the 100-BC and 100-NR OUs, and in 89- 97% of the wells in the other OUs (100-KR, 100-HR-D, 100-HR-H, 100-FR). Data for 2019 indicate that 100% of the aquifer tubes monitored for Cr(VI) in the 100 Areas have concentrations below the 48 μg/L groundwater CUL. However, the 10 μg/L standard has not yet been consistently achieved for both inland groundwater monitoring wells and shoreline aquifer tubes. This report describes a series of data analyses performed to identify consistent relationships, if any, between inland well and shoreline Cr(VI) concentrations within the 100 Areas. To this end, select monitoring data for Cr(VI) measured in groundwater and aquifer tubes at the 100 Areas were analyzed for a 10-year period—2010 to 2019. Relationships between inland groundwater plumes and surface-water points of discharge in and along the Columbia River were examined through several analyses that included inland well and aquifer tube concentrations as a function of distance from the shoreline, evaluation of cumulative probability plots, trend analysis, correlation analysis, cluster analysis, and identification of plume trajectories for each of the 100 Areas. The analyses did not identify consistent relationships between inland groundwater Cr(VI) concentrations and shoreline concentrations within the 100 Areas due to several confounding factors influencing groundwater flow directions and Cr(VI) concentrations. The proximity of groundwater Cr(VI) plumes to the river, and the highly dynamic nature of the river, influence the transport behavior of the plumes and create challenges for quantifying attenuation of Cr(VI) between the inland monitoring wells and shoreline concentrations. Other factors contributing to temporal and spatial Cr(VI) concentrations, as supported by some of the data analyses, include the presence of vadose zone sources, variable sorption behavior, and complexities associated with Cr(VI) mass transfer between the upper and lower aquifers and their interactions with the river. Hence, monitoring to assess compliance with target CULs will need to be determined for each area individually since several factors influence Cr(VI) concentrations in the 100 Areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Groundwater characterization and monitoring at a complex industrial waste site using electrical resistivity imaging

A contaminated industrial waste site in Washington State (USA) containing buried, metallic-waste storage tanks, pipes, and wells, was evaluated to determine the feasibility of monitoring groundwater remediation activities associated with an underlying perched aquifer system using electrical resistivity tomography. The perched aquifer, located ~65 m below ground surface and ~10 m above the regional water table, contains high concentrations of nitrate, uranium, and other contaminants of concern from past tank leaks and intentional releases of wastes to surface disposal sites. The extent of the perched water aquifer is not well known, and the effectiveness of groundwater extraction for contaminant removal is uncertain, so supplemental characterization and monitoring technologies are being evaluated. Numerical simulations of subsurface flow and contaminant transport were performed with a highly resolved model of the hydrogeologic system and waste site infrastructure, and these simulations were used as the physical basis for electrical resistivity tomography modeling. The modeling explicitly accounted for metallic infrastructure at the site. The effectiveness of using surface electrodes versus surface and horizontal subsurface electrodes, for imaging groundwater extraction from the perched water aquifer, was investigated. Although directional drilling is a mature technology, its use for electrode emplacement in the deep subsurface under a complex industrial waste site via horizontal wells has not yet been demonstrated. Results from this study indicate that using horizontal subsurface electrode arrays could significantly improve the ability of electrical resistivity tomography to image deep subsurface features and monitor remediation activities under complex industrial waste sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of reservoir parameters and wellbore permeability uncertainties on CO 2 and brine leakage potential at the Shenhua CO 2 Storage Site, China

Here, this paper describes a system-level risk assessment for the Shenhua CO 2 storage site, China, using the National Risk Assessment Partnership Integrated Assessment Model for Carbon Storage (NRAP-IAM-CS). Here, we begin by determining the optimal number of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to achieve CO 2 and brine leakage result convergence. Then, we calculate mass CO 2 and brine leakage to the atmosphere and a hypothetical shallow aquifer. Finally, we assess the geochemical impacts in the event of leakage as if there were a shallow freshwater aquifer at the Shenhua site. Simulation results show that leakage results tend to stabilize after 300 Monte Carlo simulations. When the three wells on site are assigned a permeability of 10 -11 m 2 (representing significantly leaking wells), moderate CO 2 and brine leakages occur, and the percentage of CO 2 leakage exceeds the threshold value we set based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is, however, unlikely to be the case for the Shenhua site. For all the other scenarios, the CO 2 leakage is trivial although there is still the possibility of CO 2 leakage into the groundwater aquifer exceeding the 1% threshold over 1000 years, assuming constant legacy wellbore permeability. For the significantly leaking scenario, there is a 10% probability to have a moderate (2.7 × 10 7 m 3 ) leakage-affected volume in the shallow aquifer with the pH below 6.5, and a large (1.4 × 10 8 m 3 ) volume with the total dissolved solids (TDS) above 500 ppm, hence pH and TDS may be considered for site monitoring plans. Based on the simulation results, there is a very low probability of significant CO 2 /brine leakage through the existing wells at the Shenhua CO 2 storage site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of a Geochemically Informed Leak Detection (GILD) Model to CO 2 Injection Sites on the United States Gulf Coast

The Gulf Coast region possesses great potential for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and CO 2 storage. A geochemically informed leak detection (GILD) model has been applied to CO 2 injection sites on the Gulf Coast with considerations of measurement variability. The Jasper aquifer in Montgomery County, Texas, was chosen to demonstrate the method. Based on background data from wells in the area, combinations of mineral and fluid compositions were used to create 23 scenarios for the geochemical model. The output from the geochemical model was used to identify sensitive monitoring species, and response functions were generated for these as a function of the CO 2 leakage concentration. The sources of measurement variability for background conditions were characterized from the Jasper aquifer background data, and then normalized using the coefficient of variation of each species across the monitoring wells. Bayesian belief network (BBN) models were constructed, and measurement variability of different levels were added to compare leak detection probabilities. Increasing measurement variability decreased the power to detect a leak of a given size. For a moderately high CO 2 concentration of 0.2 mol/kg, the probability of detecting this leakage effect using pH as the monitoring variable in an aquifer with calcite decreases from 98% (no measurement variability) to 61% (medium variability) to 33% (high variability). The loss in power of the sampling protocol with increasing measurement variability is similar in magnitude when Ca 2+ or HCO 3 - is used as the monitoring parameter, but only for aquifers with calcite.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Underground sources of drinking water chemistry changes in response to potential CO 2 leakage

The purpose of this study was to quantify changes to underground sources of drinking water (USDW) quality in response to potential CO 2 leakage from geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) reservoirs. Here, the developed a framework of combined laboratory experiments and reactive transport simulations and used this framework to evaluate the Ogallala aquifer overlying the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), an active GCS site, as a case study. Using chemical reaction parameters obtained from laboratory experiments and numerical simulations, site-specific mechanisms of CO 2 -water-sediment interactions at the USDW aquifer were interpreted. Long-term risks of potential CO 2 leakage were then evaluated with field-scale numerical models using the regional hydrogeological characteristics and reaction parameters obtained from our experiments and simulations. Results suggest that carbonate mineral impurity and cation exchange are key mechanisms for interactions between CO 2 and the aquifer sediment. Additionally, for a large leakage rate of 0.1 % injection from one leaky well, the leakage plume might impact an area of 300 m in diameter and significantly affect the local water quality by changing pH and cation concentrations (e.g., Zn, Ba and Sr). After leakage ceases, the zone of impacted fluids would not migrate significantly in subsequent decades due to a low regional groundwater flowrate (for this case study). The relatively small area of impact might not be detected in a monitoring well given the broader spacing in a typical field scenario. Effective early leakage detection may require additional tools, e.g., borehole CO 2 movement, four-dimensional seismicity, CO 2 soil flux, samples from deeper aquifers, etc., to ensure effective leakage detection and long-term safety of GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local and Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Reactive Transport Model Simulating Floodplain Redox Cycling

Reactive transport models (RTMs) are essential tools that simulate the coupling of advective, diffusive, and reactive processes in the subsurface, but their complexity makes them difficult to understand, develop and improve without accompanying statistical analyses. Although global sensitivity analysis (SA) can address these issues, the computational cost associated with most global SA techniques limits their use with RTMs. In this study, we apply distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA), a novel and computationally efficient method of global SA, to a floodplain-scale RTM and compare DGSA results to those from local SA. Our test case focuses on the impact of 17 uncertain environmental parameters on spatially and temporally variable redox conditions within a floodplain aquifer. The input parameters considered include flow and diffusion rates, geochemical reaction rates, and the spatial distribution of sediment facies. Sensitivity was evaluated for three distinct components of the model response, encompassing both multidimensional and categorical output. Parameter rankings differ between local SA and DGSA, due to nonlinear effects of individual parameters and interaction effects between parameters. DGSA results show that fluid residence time, which is controlled by aquifer permeability, generally exerts a stronger control on redox conditions than do geochemical reaction rates. Sensitivity indices also demonstrate that sulfate reduction is key for establishing and maintaining reducing conditions throughout the aquifer. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the key drivers of heterogeneous redox processes within floodplain aquifers, as well as the main sources of uncertainty when modeling complex subsurface systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Impact of Lagged Hydrological Responses on the Effectiveness of Groundwater Conservation

Many irrigated agricultural areas seek to prolong the lifetime of their groundwater resources by reducing pumping. However, it is unclear how lagged responses, such as reduced groundwater recharge caused by more efficient irrigation, may impact the long-term effectiveness of conservation initiatives. Here, we use a variably saturated, simplified surrogate groundwater model to: 1) analyze aquifer responses to pumping reductions, 2) quantify time lags between reductions and groundwater level responses, and 3) identify the physical controls on lagged responses. We explore a range of plausible model parameters for an area of the High Plains Aquifer (USA) where stakeholder-driven conservation has slowed groundwater depletion. We identify two types of lagged responses that reduce the long-term effectiveness of groundwater conservation, recharge-dominated and lateral-flow-dominated, with vertical hydraulic conductivity (K Z ) the major controlling variable. When high K z allows percolation to reach the aquifer, more efficient irrigation reduces groundwater recharge. By contrast, when low K z impedes vertical flow, short term changes in recharge are negligible, but pumping reductions alter the lateral flow between the groundwater conservation area and the surrounding regions (lateral-flow-dominated response). For the modeled area, we found that a pumping reduction of 30% resulted in median usable lifetime extensions of 20 or 25 years, depending on the dominant lagged response mechanism (recharge- vs. lateral-flow-dominated). These estimates are far shorter than estimates that do not account for lagged responses. To conclude, results indicate that conservation-based pumping reductions can extend aquifer lifetimes, but lagged responses can create a sizable difference between the initially perceived and actual long-term effectiveness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sedimentary Geothermal Resources in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Texas

The objectives of this project were to (1) perform a literature review of sedimentary geothermal resources, (2) identify data sources and develop data-collection methodologies that characterize selected resources, (3) screen sedimentary basins and formations for sedimentary geothermal potential, and (4) evaluate the technical feasibility of one or more selected locations. Numerous publications have characterized geothermal resources within sedimentary basins. A literature search reviewed publications describing resources located in Colorado, Louisiana, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. The most attractive resources have high temperature gradients, low drilling costs, and reservoir permeabilities greater than 10 millidarcies (mD). Prospects in Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Utah exhibit attractive characteristics and were chosen for further analysis. Sedimentary resources in Nevada and Utah are most attractive, followed by tested resources in Texas and untested resources in Colorado. The identified resources in Wyoming and Louisiana had lower geothermal gradients and were not evaluated. Reservoir modeling and techno-economic analysis were performed at Marys River Basin–North in Nevada. Geothermal energy production at this location is expected to have a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranging between 10 and 20 cents/kWh. Additional work may result in lower LCOE estimates at this location and at other attractive prospects in these three regions. The Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system of eastern Nevada and western Utah includes a lower carbonate aquifer unit, which has the potential for hosting both conduction- and convection-dominated geothermal systems. Mapping has identified lateral thickness variability expressed as a roughly 120–150-km-wide central corridor, which hosts the thickest and most continuous formations and extends from near Las Vegas north to the Idaho border. Purchase and analysis of privately held legacy seismic data could potentially compensate for the lack of sufficient data documenting measured depth to the lower carbonate aquifer unit. Multiple orogenies, extension episodes, and intrusive events have deformed and displaced the target formations of the lower carbonate aquifer unit. This structural complexity and potential for dipping reservoirs emphasizes the need for detailed geological, geophysical, and reservoir modeling. Heat flow within three Colorado sedimentary basins reviewed as part of this study was calculated in targeted studies by the Colorado Geologic Survey and Colorado School of Mines. These calculations are based on bottom-hole temperature data sets with significant limitations and some variability but produce values consistently higher than the global continental average of 65 mW/m2 for all three basins. Heat flow in the Raton Basin is the highest; however, permeability measurements from specific sedimentary formations with high heat flow have not been obtained. Promising formations for sedimentary geothermal systems were found in all three regions studied—Nevada-Utah, Colorado, and Texas. The next steps for developing sedimentary geothermal resources vary due to differences in available data and resource uncertainties. Additional scopes of work are recommended for identified basins in these three regions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model for Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (Rev. 0)

A new, revised three-dimensional (3-D) hydrostratigraphic framework model (HFM) for the Central and Western Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units 101 and 102 was completed in 2019. The initial (Phase I) model was completed in 2002 and was documented in A Hydrostratigraphic Model and Alternatives for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (BN, 2002). Subsequent flow and transport modeling revealed the need to collect additional data to reduce uncertainties. The Phase II data collection and characterization effort included extensive well drilling and testing activities, and rebuilding of the Phase I 3-D HFM, resulting in the Phase II HFM (NSTec, 2014). Further drilling (Well ER-20-12), data collection, and interpretive work (e.g., Thirsty Canyon Lineament [Wurtz and Day, 2018]) were incorporated into the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (PM-OV) HFM. The PM-OV HFM incorporates the area of interest from the Phase II HFM and adds additional areas, primarily to the north and west with minor additions to the south and east. The new, expanded area matches the PM-OV groundwater basin as defined in Fenelon et al. (2016) and includes Pahute Mesa, a former nuclear testing area at the Nevada National Security Site; and Oasis Valley, a groundwater discharge area downgradient from contaminant source areas on Pahute Mesa. The data and information necessary to build the PM-OV HFM are provided in Navarro (2019). The PM-OV HFM will be used by hydrologic modelers who are tasked with developing a model to determine how contaminants are transported by groundwater flow in an area of complex geology. The model area is large (more than 6,250 square kilometers) and geologically complex, including Paleozoic- to Mesozoic-age structures (e.g., thrust faults, Thirsty Canyon Lineament), at least seven Tertiary-age calderas, several intrusive bodies, and many relatively recent basin-and-range normal faults. Investigators from the U.S. Geological Survey; National Security Technologies, LLC; National Laboratories; and U.S. Department of Energy contractors have organized the more than 300 volcanic units and other rocks in the model area into 77 hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs). The volcanic rocks are subdivided into 42 aquifers, 11 confining units, and 9 composite units (containing both aquifer and confining unit rocks). The underlying pre-Tertiary rocks were divided into 5 HSUs, comprising 2 aquifers and 3 confining units. The model also includes 1 alluvial aquifer unit, 8 intrusive confining units, and 1 granite confining unit. The model depicts the thickness, extent, and geometric relationships of these HSUs (“layers” in the model) along with all the major structural features that control them, including calderas and faults. The most substantive differences between the Phase II HFM and the PM-OVHFM include (1) addition of the new data and resulting revised interpretations from the additional area encompassed by the PM-OV groundwater basin; (2) incorporation of 16 new faults; (3) 12 boreholes from the northern extension; (4) 2 additional caldera-collapse collars; and (5) correlation of the simulated faulting and hydrostratigraphy in the eastern part of the model domain with the delineations represented in the neighboring Rainier Mesa-Shoshone Mountain HFM-Prime and Yucca Flat-Climax Mine HFM. All PM-OV HFM delineations were based on published and unpublished data from geophysical investigations, surface geologic maps, and drill-hole records. Phase II approached model uncertainty using the model-building software to test model configurations and hydrologic consequences using a range of values for parameters such as fault offset amounts and HSU elevations. The PM-OV HFM expands on this approach to encompass the entire PM-OV groundwater basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated GW Farm ABM

This Data Repository includes data used for the integrated groundwater- farm ABM model, raw model output from scenario ensemble, and processed outputs that isolate the groundwater storage depletion outcomes for the 35,000 farm cells. Model Inputs: Farm ABM Inputs: This folder contains the input data used by the integrated groundwater - farm ABM modelling script (Python file) used for the high performance computing (HPC) experiments. The sub-folder "data inputs" contains all of the farm attribute data, while the three files in the folder have the hydrogeological data lookup table (NLDAS Cost Curve Attributes.csv), a lookup table (Theis well function table.csv) for the groundwater cost curve function, and the farm indexes and corresponding NLDAS ids for all of the cells run in this experiment (nldas farms subset final.csv). NLDAS Cost curve hydrogeological data: Hydrogeological data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution and aligned with the NLDAS grid. Parameters include: water depth below ground surface [meters], subsurface porosity [unitless], aquifer depth from ground surface to aquifer bottom [meters], annual average recharge (USGS: mm, Doll: meters), and three different hydraulic conductivity (K) values (meters/day). The three K values represent the mean value from Gleeson et al. (2018), one standard deviation above the mean from Gleeson et al. (2018), and the de Graaf et al. 2020 modifications to certain lithologies. Additional information about these datasets and their processing are documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). Output: Raw outputs: This folder contains a .zip file that has model outputs for the entire scenario ensemble. There is one csv for each farm id, using the format "farm farmid cases.csv". The relationship between the farm id and NLDAS id is defined by the "nldas farms subset final.csv" located in the Farm ABM Inputs folder. Each csv has 625 rows, corresponding to 625 combinations of different scenario parameter values. Each row (scenario) represents the outcome of a 100 year simulation. Columns define scenario settings and summary statistics for each scenario. The first four columns define the scenario settings: "hydro ratio," "econ ratio," "K scenario," and "gamma scenario." The hydro and econ ratios are values passed to the modeling script that influence multipliers for other model parameters, as documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). The gamma multiplier is a coefficient multiplier applied to the baseline gamma values (values below 1 represent lower unobserved costs compared to baseline, values above 1 represent higher costs). The K scenario names represent K values of: "low": 0.5 m/d, "int 1": 2.5 m/d, "int 2": 10 m/d, "high": 50 m/d, and "gleeson": mean Gleeson K value. "Perc vol depleted" is the fraction of groundwater depleted at the end of the 100 simulation. Processed Output: Derived depletion outcomes from raw outputs: All of the individual csv files from the Raw outputs were aggregated into a single file that has the scenario settings and fraction depletion "Perc vol depleted" for every farm cell, for every scenario. The other two files define relationships between the farm id, NLDAS id, and local and major aquifer units, used for aquifer-level depletion analysis.

Agent based modeling↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lithospheric Dynamics of Mars: Water, Flow, and Failure

Some of the largest Martian erosive features were influenced by groundwater, and include valley networks, outflow channels, and possibly landslides. We argue that hydrothermal systems attending crustal formation processes were able to drive sufficient groundwater to the surface to form the Noachian southern highlands valley networks, which show a spatial correlation to crustal magnetic anomalies, also results of crustal formation. Hydrothermal activity is quantified through numerical simulations of convection in a porous medium due to the presence of a hot intruded magma chamber. The parameter space includes magma chamber depth, volume, aspect ratio, and host rock permeability and porosity. For permeabilities as low as l0(exp -17) sq m and intrusion volumes as low as 50 km , the total discharge due to intrusions building that part of the southern highlands crust associated with magnetic anomalies spans a comparable range as the inferred discharge from the overlying valley networks. The Hesperian circum-Chryse outflow channels are further manifestations of groundwater discharge and Clifford and Parker (2001) suggest that the large volumes of water required for their formation flows beneath a confining cryosphere from the South Pole where meltwater beneath an ice cap recharges a global aquifer. We argue that recharge occurs instead over the nearby Tharsis aquifer at high obliquity, assisted by cryosphere melting due to volcanic activity. Numerical simulations quantify the strength and duration of outflow discharge given either South Polar or Tharsis recharge. The contribution of South Pole recharge given Clifford and Parker aquifer properties is negligible compared to that of the initial Tharsis inventory. Tharsis recharge, despite the restrictions of improved aquifer properties, makes a significant contribution and, unlike South Pole recharge under the same conditions, fulfills discharge requirements. Groundwater may have influenced long run-out landslide formation in the Valles Marineris. We present simulations of Martian, terrestrial, and lunar landslides that gauge the role of pore fluid pressure in reproducing accurate geometries and run-out with frictional, Bingham, and fluidization rheologies. The results indicate that pore fluid is a necessary component of Martian landslide formation and we suggest scenarios that might explain its presence.

Grimm, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Impact of Water Withdrawals from Groundwater and Surface Water on Continental Water Storage Variations

Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 cubic km/yr of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/yr of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.

Doell, Petra↗
NASA NTRS2022

Groundwater Variability Across India, Under Contrasting Human and Natural Conditions

Characterizing local to regional scale water cycles and water resources will be crucial for achieving the United Nations' water-related Sustainable Developmental Goals. However, quantification and understanding of groundwater extraction across scales have been hampered by inadequate water usage reporting and limited information on irrigation practices. Here we analyze observations from ∼15,000 groundwater monitoring wells and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites together with irrigation, agricultural, and meteorological datasets to show how drought-induced coupling between natural and anthropogenic groundwater storage variations has caused sustainability challenges in India, the world's biggest consumer of groundwater for irrigation. Notably, the mechanisms and consequences of such coupling differ significantly depending on aquifer types. In Andhra Pradesh's hard rock aquifer, groundwater declines have been limited, despite the nearly constant water scarcity that its farmers face. Moreover, its free farm power policy involves an annual irrigation energy consumption of 26 billion kWh that costs US$ 2.5 billion, possibly unparalleled compared to any other part of the world of similar size (0.27 million km2). In West Bengal's highly permeable alluvial aquifer, the water table is declining rapidly (15 cm/yr) due to a policy that encourages irrigation. Situated between these two states, Odisha's aquifer shows substantial resilience to drought, owing to the state's relatively natural landscape and forest restoration policy. The findings of this study provide new insights to understand the divergent aspects of groundwater irrigation in north versus south India, which can enable development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to avert the looming water crisis.

Dileep K Panda↗
DOE OSTI2023

A VOI Web Application for Distinct Geothermal Domains: Statistical Evaluation of Different Data Types within the Great Basin

The Great Basin region contains different domains that have different structural and hydrothermal flow patterns. Depending on the characteristics of these patterns, certain data types may be more successful at detecting hidden geothermal resources. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate if certain data types are more successful in certain domains. Given different aquifer, strain and structural conditions, we explore which data types statistically reveal positively labeled geothermal sites. We utilize value of information (VOI) metrics to help quantify the reliability of data types to discriminate against "positive" and "negative" labeled geothermal sites. We also evaluate how kernel density estimation can help generalize the statistics that inform VOI, which is necessary given the limited data in geothermal exploration. Except for the Carbonate Aquifer, the highest ranking of the Vimperfect is the Local Structural Setting. Next, the slip and dilation tendency is first for Carbonate Aquifer and second for Central Nevada Seismic Belt and Western Great Basin. For the Carbonate Aquifer, heat flow is has the lowest Vimperfect value compared to the other three domains, which is consistent with the understanding of how heat flow measurements are masked by regional groundwater flow.

Bayesian analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Selecting representative geological realizations to model subsurface CO 2 storage under uncertainty

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the quickest and most effective solutions for reducing carbon emissions. The majority of subsurface storage occurs in saline aquifers, for which geological information is lacking which in turn results in geological uncertainty. To evaluate uncertainty in CO 2 injection projections, the use of multiple geological realizations (GRs) has been practiced very commonly. In this approach, hundreds or thousands of high-resolution GRs is used that quickly becomes computationally expensive. This issue can be addressed with representative geological realizations (RGRs) that preserve the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. Here, in this study, we propose the use of unsupervised machine learning (UML) frameworks, including dissimilarity measurement, dimensionality reduction, clustering and sampling algorithms ta select a predetermined number of RGRs. We compare the simulation outputs of the RGR sets and the ensemble using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to select the best UML. The UML frameworks and their associated selection processes are evaluated using a saline aquifer with a single CO 2 injection well and 200 GRs with varying uncertain petrophysical characteristics. The best UML framework is selected to use only 5% of the GRs while maintaining the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. In addition, the best UML framework is tested using a saline aquifer with three CO 2 injection wells and varied GRs. The results show that our proposed UML framework can be used to choose RGRs, capturing the whole uncertainty domain. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the computational cost associated with scenario testing, decision-making, and development planning for CO 2 storage sites under geological uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗