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In the teaching and learning events of our life, there are characters who play key roles. Teachers, mentors, relatives, novels, songs, newspaper columns, often help us understand the questions in our heads. However, we often reject them because they are messages or attitudes from older people and the generation gap does not allow us to understand them well. The times of covid-19 have us locked up at home. They alert us that precisely “elderly people” are a vulnerable group. Also, we have been asked to take care of grandparents. If we are lucky enough to have an internet connection, it seems that we can learn anything we want with just one click. This could lead us to explore only what we find attractive, easy and comfortable. With this testimony, I invite you to acknowledge on the role of the elderly in the learning of entire generations. I call for openness towards diverse voices and for the understanding that we all play a role in moving towards a more mature society.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Warning Signs of Potential Black Swan Outbreaks in Infectious Disease

Black swan events in infectious disease describe rare but devastatingly large outbreaks. While experts are skeptical that such events are predictable, it might be possible to identify the warning signs of a black swan event. Specifically, following the initiation of an outbreak, key differentiating features could serve as alerts. Such features could be derived from meta-analyses of large outbreaks for multiple infectious diseases. We hypothesized there may be common features among the pathogen, environment, and host epidemiological triad that characterize an infectious disease black swan event. Using Los Alamos National Laboratory’s tool, Analytics for Investigation of Disease Outbreaks, we investigated historical disease outbreak information and anomalous events for several infectious diseases. By studying 32 different infectious diseases and global outbreaks, we observed that in the past 20–30 years, there have been potential black swan events in the majority of infectious diseases analyzed. Importantly, these potential black swan events cannot be attributed to the first introduction of the disease to a susceptible host population. This paper describes our observations and perspectives and illustrates the value of broad analysis of data across the infectious disease realm, providing insights that may not be possible when we focus on singular infectious agents or diseases. Data analytics could be developed to warn health authorities at the beginning of an outbreak of an impending black swan event. Such tools could complement traditional epidemiological modeling to help forecast future large outbreaks and facilitate timely warning and effective, targeted resource allocation for mitigation efforts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of Novel Small-Molecule Activators of Pyruvate Kinase Muscle Isozyme 2, PKM2, to Reduce Photoreceptor Apoptosis

Treatment options are lacking to prevent photoreceptor death and subsequent vision loss. Previously, we demonstrated that reprogramming metabolism via the pharmacologic activation of PKM2 is a novel photoreceptor neuroprotective strategy. However, the features of the tool compound used in those studies, ML-265, preclude its advancement as an intraocular, clinical candidate. This study sought to develop the next generation of small-molecule PKM2 activators, aimed specifically for delivery into the eye. Compounds were developed that replaced the thienopyrrolopyridazinone core of ML-265 and modified the aniline and methyl sulfoxide functional groups. Compound 2 demonstrated that structural changes to the ML-265 scaffold are tolerated from a potency and efficacy standpoint, allow for a similar binding mode to the target, and circumvent apoptosis in models of outer retinal stress. To overcome the low solubility and problematic functional groups of ML-265, compound 2’s efficacious and versatile core structure for the incorporation of diverse functional groups was then utilized to develop novel PKM2 activators with improved solubility, lack of structural alerts, and retained potency. No other molecules are in the pharmaceutical pipeline for the metabolic reprogramming of photoreceptors. Thus, this study is the first to cultivate the next generation of novel, structurally diverse, small-molecule PKM2 activators for delivery into the eye.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Optical Studies of Eight AM Herculis–type Cataclysmic Variable Stars

We report detailed follow-up observations of eight cataclysmic variable stars (CVs) that are apparently AM Her stars, also called polars. For all, we either determine orbital periods for the first time or improve on existing determinations. The seven for which we have spectra show the high-amplitude radial-velocity curves and prominent He ii λ4686 emission lines characteristic of strongly magnetic CVs, and their periods, which range from 81 to 219 minutes, are also typical for AM Her stars. Two objects from the Gaia-alerts index, Gaia18aot and Gaia18aya, are newly identified as CVs. Another, RX J0636.3+6554, eclipses deeply, while CSS 080228:081210+040352 shows a sharp dip that is apparently a partial eclipse. The spectrum of Gaia18aya has a cyclotron harmonic near λ5500 Å that constrains the surface field to ∼49 MG or greater.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Systematic Search for Outbursting AM CVn Systems with the Zwicky Transient Facility

AM CVn systems are a rare type of accreting binary that consists of a white dwarf and a helium-rich, degenerate donor star. Using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), we searched for new AM CVn systems by focusing on blue, outbursting stars. We first selected outbursting stars using the ZTF alerts. We cross matched the candidates with Gaia and Pan-STARRS catalogs. The initial selection of candidates based on the Gaia BP-RP contains 1751 unknown objects. We used the Pan-STARRS g-r and r-i color in combination with the Gaia color to identify 59 strong AM CVn candidates. We obtained identification spectra of 35 sources, of which 18 are high-priority candidates, and discovered nine new AM CVn systems and one magnetic CV that shows only He-ii lines. Using the outburst recurrence time, we estimate the orbital periods of the nine new AM CVn systems that are in the range of 29–50 minutes. We conclude that targeted follow up of blue, outbursting sources is an efficient method to find new AM CVn systems and we plan to follow up all candidates we identified to systematically study the population of outbursting AM CVn systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photometric Classification of Early-time Supernova Light Curves with SCONE

Abstract In this work, we present classification results on early supernova light curves from SCONE, a photometric classifier that uses convolutional neural networks to categorize supernovae (SNe) by type using light-curve data. SCONE is able to identify SN types from light curves at any stage, from the night of initial alert to the end of their lifetimes. Simulated LSST SNe light curves were truncated at 0, 5, 15, 25, and 50 days after the trigger date and used to train Gaussian processes in wavelength and time space to produce wavelength–time heatmaps. SCONE uses these heatmaps to perform six-way classification between SN types Ia, II, Ibc, Ia-91bg, Iax, and SLSN-I. SCONE is able to perform classification with or without redshift, but we show that incorporating redshift information improves performance at each epoch. SCONE achieved 75% overall accuracy at the date of trigger (60% without redshift), and 89% accuracy 50 days after trigger (82% without redshift). SCONE was also tested on bright subsets of SNe ( r < 20 mag) and produced 91% accuracy at the date of trigger (83% without redshift) and 95% five days after trigger (94.7% without redshift). SCONE is the first application of convolutional neural networks to the early-time photometric transient classification problem. All of the data processing and model code developed for this paper can be found in the SCONE software package 1 1 github.com/helenqu/scone located at github.com/helenqu/scone (Qu 2021).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fermi and Swift Observations of GRB 190114C: Tracing the Evolution of High-energy Emission from Prompt to Afterglow

We report on the observations of gamma-ray burst (GRB) 190114C by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory . The prompt gamma-ray emission was detected by the Fermi GRB Monitor (GBM), the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), and the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) and the long-lived afterglow emission was subsequently observed by the GBM, LAT, Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT), and Swift UV Optical Telescope. The early-time observations reveal multiple emission components that evolve independently, with a delayed power-law component that exhibits significant spectral attenuation above 40 MeV in the first few seconds of the burst. This power-law component transitions to a harder spectrum that is consistent with the afterglow emission observed by the XRT at later times. This afterglow component is clearly identifiable in the GBM and BAT light curves as a slowly fading emission component on which the rest of the prompt emission is superimposed. As a result, we are able to observe the transition from internal-shock- to external-shock-dominated emission. We find that the temporal and spectral evolution of the broadband afterglow emission can be well modeled as synchrotron emission from a forward shock propagating into a wind-like circumstellar environment. We estimate the initial bulk Lorentz factor using the observed high-energy spectral cutoff. Considering the onset of the afterglow component, we constrain the deceleration radius at which this forward shock begins to radiate in order to estimate the maximum synchrotron energy as a function of time. We find that even in the LAT energy range, there exist high-energy photons that are in tension with the theoretical maximum energy that can be achieved through synchrotron emission from a shock. These violations of the maximum synchrotron energy are further compounded by the detection of very high-energy (VHE) emission above 300 GeV by MAGIC concurrent with our observations. We conclude that the observations of VHE photons from GRB 190114C necessitates either an additional emission mechanism at very high energies that is hidden in the synchrotron component in the LAT energy range, an acceleration mechanism that imparts energy to the particles at a rate that is faster than the electron synchrotron energy-loss rate, or revisions of the fundamental assumptions used in estimating the maximum photon energy attainable through the synchrotron process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey. XVIII. Searching for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in X-Rays

Theory predicts that a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) could be observed as a luminous active galactic nucleus (AGN) that periodically varies on the order of its orbital timescale. In X-rays, periodic variations could be caused by mechanisms including relativistic Doppler boosting and shocks. In this paper we present the first systematic search for periodic AGNs using 941 hard X-ray light curves (14–195 keV) from the first 105 months of the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) survey (2004–2013). We do not find evidence for periodic AGNs in Swift-BAT, including the previously reported SMBHB candidate MCG+11–11–032. We find that the null detection is consistent with the combination of the upper-limit binary population in AGNs in our adopted model, their expected periodic variability amplitudes, and the BAT survey characteristics. We have also investigated the detectability of SMBHBs against normal AGN X-ray variability in the context of the extended ROentgen Survey with an Imaging Telescope Array (eROSITA) survey. Under our assumptions of a binary population and the periodic signals they produce, which have long periods of hundreds of days, up to 13% true periodic binaries can be robustly distinguished from normal variable AGNs with the ideal uniform sampling. However, we demonstrate that realistic eROSITA sampling is likely to be insensitive to long-period binaries because longer observing gaps reduce their detectability. In contrast, large observing gaps do not diminish the prospect of detecting binaries of short, few-day periods, as 19% can be successfully recovered, the vast majority of which can be identified by the first half of the survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

I Spy Transits and Pulsations: Empirical Variability in White Dwarfs Using Gaia and the Zwicky Transient Facility

We present a novel method to detect variable astrophysical objects and transient phenomena using anomalous excess scatter in repeated measurements from public catalogs of Gaia DR2 and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) DR3 photometry. We first provide a generalized, all-sky proxy for variability using only Gaia DR2 photometry, calibrated to white dwarf stars. To ensure more robust candidate detection, we further employ a method combining Gaia with ZTF photometry and alerts. To demonstrate its efficacy, we apply this latter technique to a sample of roughly 12,100 white dwarfs within 200 pc centered on the ZZ Ceti instability strip, where hydrogen-atmosphere white dwarfs are known to pulsate. Here, by inspecting the top 1% of the samples ranked by these methods, we demonstrate that both the Gaia-only and ZTF-informed techniques are highly effective at identifying known and new variable white dwarfs, which we verify using follow-up, high-speed photometry. We confirm variability in all 33 out of 33 (100%) observed white dwarfs within our top 1% highest-ranked candidates, both inside and outside the ZZ Ceti instability strip. In addition to dozens of new pulsating white dwarfs, we also identify five white dwarfs highly likely to show transiting planetary debris; if confirmed, these systems would more than triple the number of white dwarfs known to host transiting debris.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BASS. XXXIII. Swift-BAT Blazars and Their Jets through Cosmic Time

We derive the most up-to-date Swift-Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) blazar luminosity function in the 14–195 keV range, making use of a clean sample of 118 blazars detected in the BAT 105 month survey catalog, with newly obtained redshifts from the BAT Active Galatic Nucleus Spectroscopic Survey. We determine the best-fit X-ray luminosity function for the whole blazar population, as well as for flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) alone. The main results are: (1) at any redshift, BAT detects the most luminous blazars, above any possible break in their luminosity distribution, which means we cannot differentiate between density and luminosity evolution; (2) the whole blazar population, dominated by FSRQs, evolves positively up to redshift z ~ 4.3, confirming earlier results and implying lower number densities of blazars at higher redshifts than previously estimated. The contribution of this source class to the cosmic X-ray background at 14–195 keV can range from 5%–18%, while possibly accounting for 100% of the MeV background. We also derived the average 14 keV–10 GeV spectral energy distribution for BAT blazars, which allows us to predict the number counts of sources in the MeV range, as well as the expected number of high-energy (>100 TeV) neutrinos. A mission like COSI will detect 40 MeV blazars, of which two may have coincident neutrino detections. Finally, taking into account beaming selection effects, the distribution and properties of the parent population of these extragalactic jets are derived. We find that the distribution of viewing angles is quite narrow, with most sources aligned within <5° of the line of sight. Moreover, the average Lorentz factor, $\langle$Γ$\rangle$ = 8–12, is lower than previously suggested for these powerful sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Orbital Decay of Double White Dwarfs: Beyond Gravitational-wave Radiation Effects

The traditional description of the orbital evolution of compact-object binaries, like double white dwarfs (DWDs), assumes that the system is driven only by gravitational-wave (GW) radiation. However, the high magnetic fields with intensities of up to gigagausses measured in WDs alert a potential role of the electromagnetic (EM) emission in the evolution of DWDs. We evaluate the orbital dynamics of DWDs under the effects of GW radiation, tidal synchronization, and EM emission by a unipolar inductor generated by the magnetic primary and the relative motion of the nonmagnetic secondary. We show that the EM emission can affect the orbital dynamics for magnetic fields larger than megagausses. We applied the model to two known DWDs, SDSS J0651+2844 and ZTF J1539+5027, for which the GW radiation alone does not fully account for the measured orbital decay rate. We obtain upper limits to the primary's magnetic field strength, over which the EM emission causes an orbital decay faster than observed. The contribution of tidal locking and the EM emission is comparable, and together they can contribute up to 20% to the measured orbital decay rate. We show that the gravitational waveform for a DWD modeled as purely driven by GWs and including tidal interactions and EM emission can have large relative dephasing detectable in the mHz regime of frequencies relevant for space-based detectors like LISA. Therefore, including physics besides GW radiation in the waveform templates is essential to calibrate the GW detectors using known sources, e.g., ZTF J1539+5027, and to infer binary parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for Gamma-Ray and Neutrino Coincidences Using HAWC and ANTARES Data

In the quest for high-energy neutrino sources, the Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network has implemented a new search by combining data from the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory and the Astronomy with a Neutrino Telescope and Abyss environmental RESearch (ANTARES) neutrino telescope. Using the same analysis strategy as in a previous detector combination of HAWC and IceCube data, we perform a search for coincidences in HAWC and ANTARES events that are below the threshold for sending public alerts in each individual detector. Data were collected between 2015 July and 2020 February with a live time of 4.39 yr. Over this time period, three coincident events with an estimated false-alarm rate of <1 coincidence per year were found. This number is consistent with background expectations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BatAnalysis - A Comprehensive Python Pipeline for Swift BAT Survey Analysis

The Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) is a coded-aperture gamma-ray instrument with a large field of view that primarily operates in survey mode when it is not triggering on transient events. The survey data consist of 80-channel detector plane histograms that accumulate photon counts over periods of at least 5 minutes. These histograms are processed on the ground and are used to produce the survey data set between 14 and 195 keV. Survey data comprise >90% of all BAT data by volume and allow for the tracking of long-term light curves and spectral properties of cataloged and uncataloged hard X-ray sources. Until now, the survey data set has not been used to its full potential due to the complexity associated with its analysis and the lack of easily usable pipelines. Here, we introduce the BatAnalysis Python package, a wrapper for HEASoftpy, which provides a modern, open-source pipeline to process and analyze BAT survey data. BatAnalysis allows members of the community to use BAT survey data in more advanced analyses of astrophysical sources, including pulsars, pulsar wind nebula, active galactic nuclei, and other known/unknown transient events that may be detected in the hard X-ray band. We outline the steps taken by the Python code and exemplify its usefulness and accuracy by analyzing survey data of the Crab Nebula, NGC 2992, and a previously uncataloged MAXI transient. The BatAnalysis package allows for ~18 yr of BAT survey data to be used in a systematic way to study a large variety of astrophysical sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Designing an Optimal Kilonova Search Using DECam for Gravitational-wave Events

We address the problem of optimally identifying all kilonovae detected via gravitational-wave emission in the upcoming LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run, O4, which is expected to be sensitive to a factor of ~7 more binary neutron star (BNS) alerts than previously. Electromagnetic follow-up of all but the brightest of these new events will require >1 m telescopes, for which limited time is available. We present an optimized observing strategy for the DECam during O4. We base our study on simulations of gravitational-wave events expected for O4 and wide-prior kilonova simulations. We derive the detectabilities of events for realistic observing conditions. We optimize our strategy for confirming a kilonova while minimizing telescope time. For a wide range of kilonova parameters, corresponding to a fainter kilonova compared to GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that, with this optimal strategy, the discovery probability for electromagnetic counterparts with the DECam is ~80% at the nominal BNS gravitational-wave detection limit for O4 (190 Mpc), which corresponds to an ~30% improvement compared to the strategy adopted during the previous observing run. For more distant events (~330 Mpc), we reach an ~60% probability of detection, a factor of ~2 increase. For a brighter kilonova model dominated by the blue component that reproduces the observations of GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that we can reach ~90% probability of detection out to 330 Mpc, representing an increase of ~20%, while also reducing the total telescope time required to follow up events by ~20%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey. III. BTSbot: Automated Identification and Follow-up of Bright Transients with Deep Learning

Abstract The Bright Transient Survey (BTS) aims to obtain a classification spectrum for all bright ( m peak ≤ 18.5 mag) extragalactic transients found in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) public survey. BTS critically relies on visual inspection (“scanning”) to select targets for spectroscopic follow-up, which, while effective, has required a significant time investment over the past ∼5 yr of ZTF operations. We present BTSbot , a multimodal convolutional neural network, which provides a bright transient score to individual ZTF detections using their image data and 25 extracted features. BTSbot is able to eliminate the need for daily human scanning by automatically identifying and requesting spectroscopic follow-up observations of new bright transient candidates. BTSbot recovers all bright transients in our test split and performs on par with scanners in terms of identification speed (on average, ∼1 hr quicker than scanners). We also find that BTSbot is not significantly impacted by any data shift by comparing performance across a concealed test split and a sample of very recent BTS candidates. BTSbot has been integrated into Fritz and Kowalski , ZTF’s first-party marshal and alert broker, and now sends automatic spectroscopic follow-up requests for the new transients it identifies. Between 2023 December and 2024 May, BTSbot selected 609 sources in real time, 96% of which were real extragalactic transients. With BTSbot and other automation tools, the BTS workflow has produced the first fully automatic end-to-end discovery and classification of a transient, representing a significant reduction in the human time needed to scan.

Rehemtulla, Nabeel (ORCID:0000000256832389)↗

Periodic Gamma-Ray Modulation of the Blazar PG 1553+113 Confirmed by Fermi-LAT and Multiwavelength Observations

A 2.1 yr periodic oscillation of the gamma-ray flux from the blazar PG 1553+113 has previously been tentatively identified in ∼7 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. After 15 yr of Fermi sky-survey observations, doubling the total time range, we report >7 cycle gamma-ray modulation with an estimated significance of 4σ against stochastic red noise. Independent determinations of oscillation period and phase in the earlier and the new data are in close agreement (chance probability <0.01). Pulse timing over the full light curve is also consistent with a coherent periodicity. Multiwavelength new data from Swift X-Ray Telescope, Burst Alert Telescope, and UVOT, and from KAIT, Catalina Sky Survey, All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae, and Owens Valley Radio Observatory ground-based observatories as well as archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer satellite-All Sky Monitor data, published optical data of Tuorla, and optical historical Harvard plates data are included in our work. Optical and radio light curves show clear correlations with the gamma-ray modulation, possibly with a nonconstant time lag for the radio flux. We interpret the gamma-ray periodicity as possibly arising from a pulsational accretion flow in a sub-parsec binary supermassive black hole system of elevated mass ratio, with orbital modulation of the supplied material and energy in the jet. Other astrophysical scenarios introduced include instabilities, disk and jet precession, rotation or nutation, and perturbations by massive stars or intermediate-mass black holes in polar orbit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anomaly Detection and Approximate Similarity Searches of Transients in Real-time Data Streams

Abstract We present Lightcurve Anomaly Identification and Similarity Search ( LAISS ), an automated pipeline to detect anomalous astrophysical transients in real-time data streams. We deploy our anomaly detection model on the nightly Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Alert Stream via the ANTARES broker, identifying a manageable ∼1–5 candidates per night for expert vetting and coordinating follow-up observations. Our method leverages statistical light-curve and contextual host galaxy features within a random forest classifier, tagging transients of rare classes ( spectroscopic anomalies), of uncommon host galaxy environments ( contextual anomalies), and of peculiar or interaction-powered phenomena ( behavioral anomalies). Moreover, we demonstrate the power of a low-latency (∼ms) approximate similarity search method to find transient analogs with similar light-curve evolution and host galaxy environments. We use analogs for data-driven discovery, characterization, (re)classification, and imputation in retrospective and real-time searches. To date, we have identified ∼50 previously known and previously missed rare transients from real-time and retrospective searches, including but not limited to superluminous supernovae (SLSNe), tidal disruption events, SNe IIn, SNe IIb, SNe I-CSM, SNe Ia-91bg-like, SNe Ib, SNe Ic, SNe Ic-BL, and M31 novae. Lastly, we report the discovery of 325 total transients, all observed between 2018 and 2021 and absent from public catalogs (∼1% of all ZTF Astronomical Transient reports to the Transient Name Server through 2021). These methods enable a systematic approach to finding the “needle in the haystack” in large-volume data streams. Because of its integration with the ANTARES broker, LAISS is built to detect exciting transients in Rubin data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

IceCube Search for Neutrino Emission from X-Ray Bright Seyfert Galaxies

The recent IceCube detection of TeV neutrino emission from the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068 suggests that active galactic nuclei (AGNs) could make a sizable contribution to the diffuse flux of astrophysical neutrinos. The absence of TeV γ-rays from NGC 1068 indicates neutrino production in the vicinity of the supermassive black hole, where the high radiation density leads to γ-ray attenuation. Therefore, any potential neutrino emission from similar sources is not expected to correlate with high-energy γ-rays. Disk-corona models predict neutrino emission from Seyfert galaxies to correlate with keV X-rays because they are tracers of coronal activity. Using through-going track events from the Northern Sky recorded by IceCube between 2011 and 2021, we report results from a search for individual and aggregated neutrino signals from 27 additional Seyfert galaxies that are contained in the Swift's Burst Alert Telescope AGN Spectroscopic Survey. Besides the generic single power law, we evaluate the spectra predicted by the disk-corona model assuming stochastic acceleration parameters that match the measured flux from NGC 1068. Assuming all sources to be intrinsically similar to NGC 1068, our findings constrain the collective neutrino emission from X-ray bright Seyfert galaxies in the northern sky, but, at the same time, show excesses of neutrinos that could be associated with the objects NGC 4151 and CGCG 420-015. These excesses result in a 2.7σ significance with respect to background expectations.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University, Chicago, IL (United↗