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At least 217 records · Page 12

Data-driven Expectations for Electromagnetic Counterpart Searches Based on LIGO/Virgo Public Alerts

Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic after glow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo’s third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics ofO3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers

Polina Petrov↗

New Release Products: Combining the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration With Other Early Indicators of Solar Energetic Particle Events

The Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (“REleASE”) exploits the prompt arrival of near-relativistic electrons in the Earth/moon system to rapidly warn human explorers of the imminent arrival of hazardous energetic ions from solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Since 2008, the REleASE system has been implemented in near-real-time, initially with electron observations from SOHO, and since 2017 with additional observations from ACE as “HESPERIA REleASE”: upcoming opportunities will utilize IMAP and SWFO observations. REleASE is undergoing performance validation as part of the NASA/CCMC SEP scoreboarding process (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/scoreboards/sep/). The ongoing return of STEREO-A to the vicinity of Earth provides observations of radio waves in near-real-time and allows REleASE to be combined with the identification of type-III radio bursts, which provide additional evidence of particle escape from the Sun (the use of type-III bursts for SEP forecasting was pioneered by “ESPERTA” developed by Laurenza et al., 2009). The aim of this planned “REleASE+” system is to further reduce the rate of false alarms. Another opportunity, facilitated by the CLEAR space weather center (PI L. Zhao, Univ. Michigan) will combine REleASE with “SEPSTER” (Richardson et al., 2018) to reduce the high rate of false alarms produced by SEPSTER, which is triggered by reports of CMEs, the vast majority of which do not result in detected SEP ion events. This presentation will give a status update on these objectives.

solar particle events↗

On alert for Ebola: public health risk assessment of travellers from Uganda to the USA during the 2022 outbreak

Abstract Background On 20 September 2022, the Ugandan Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Sudan ebolavirus. Methods From 6 October 2022 to 10 January 2023, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) staff conducted public health assessments at five US ports of entry for travellers identified as having been in Uganda in the past 21 days. CDC also recommended that state, local and territorial health departments (‘health departments’) conduct post-arrival monitoring of these travellers. CDC provided traveller contact information, daily to 58 health departments, and collected health department data regarding monitoring outcomes. Results Among 11 583 travellers screened, 132 (1%) required additional assessment due to potential exposures or symptoms of concern. Fifty-three (91%) health departments reported receiving traveller data from CDC for 10 114 (87%) travellers, of whom 8499 (84%) were contacted for monitoring, 1547 (15%) could not be contacted and 68 (1%) had no reported outcomes. No travellers with high-risk exposures or Ebola disease were identified. Conclusion Entry risk assessment and post-arrival monitoring of travellers are resource-intensive activities that had low demonstrated yield during this and previous outbreaks. The efficiency of future responses could be improved by incorporating an assessment of risk of importation of disease, accounting for individual travellers’ potential for exposure, and expanded use of methods that reduce burden to federal agencies, health departments, and travellers.

General & Internal Medicine↗

Long-Term Methane Emissions Rate Quantification and Alert System for Natural Gas Storage Wells and Fields

The Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and other critical stakeholders (e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), state regulators, and industry) seek to more accurately characterize and quantify methane emissions from natural gas storage wells. These efforts will reduce uncertainties in estimates of these emissions in USEPA’s current Green House Gas Inventory (GHGI) under their Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP; EPA, 2016). Emission factors currently used to estimate methane emissions from gas storage wells are the same factors used for onshore natural gas production wells (USEPA, 2016). This study has developed a robust and representative dataset of emissions from disaggregated gas station wellhead components and related emission factors that will inform future enhancements to the GHGI and GHGRP. Extensive methane emissions measurements and meteorological data were collected from three active storage facilities representing two of the three types of storage facilities (i.e., depleted gas reservoir and salt cavern) to support development of emissions factors specifically for gas storage wells and associated components. Methane emissions were quantified from both above-ground components (e.g., pipe fittings and valves) and seepage from the ground surface in proximity to gas storage wellheads.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Winter Storm Elliott: Energy Emergency Alert Lessons Learned

Power blackouts in the United States in 2022 highlighted the need for better communication and planning among power grid stakeholders. This need was further demonstrated at a 2021 workshop held by the Grid Reliability Initiative Utilizing Data Standardization (GRIDS) Project. The GRIDS Project was established to understand and address the gaps in communication between the transmission and distribution operators. With the ongoing energy transition including electrification, distributed energy resource penetration, and so on, this project aims for improved energy emergency communications at the transmission-distribution interface. In 2022, Winter Storm Elliott affected 60% of the United States population (Weather Underground 2022), resulting in rolling blackouts in many areas of the eastern United States (Knoxville Utilities Board [KUB] 2023). Information presented here is based on the GRIDS workshop findings and subsequent research and interviews with stakeholders. After a brief summary of the effects of Winter Storm Elliott, this report covers the standard energy emergency communications processes currently in use, how the storm affected power management operations for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and its local utility companies, and related experiences in other states. The report concludes with lessons learned and recommendations for improvements and a path forward.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Prompt Searches for Very-high-energy γ -Ray Counterparts to IceCube Astrophysical Neutrino Alerts

The search for sources of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos can be significantly advanced through a multimessenger approach, which seeks to detect the γ-rays that accompany neutrinos as they are produced at their sources. Multimessenger observations have so far provided the first evidence for a neutrino source, illustrated by the joint detection of the flaring blazar TXS 0506+056 in high-energy (E > 1 GeV) and very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) γ-rays in coincidence with the high-energy neutrino IceCube-170922A, identified by IceCube. Imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs), namely FACT, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS, continue to conduct extensive neutrino target-of-opportunity follow-up programs. These programs have two components: follow-up observations of single astrophysical neutrino candidate events (such as IceCube-170922A), and observation of known γ-ray sources after the identification of a cluster of neutrino events by IceCube. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of follow-up observations of high-energy neutrino events observed by the four IACTs between 2017 September (after the IceCube-170922A event) and 2021 January. Our study found no associations between γ-ray sources and the observed neutrino events. We provide a detailed overview of each neutrino event and its potential counterparts. Furthermore, a joint analysis of all IACT data is included, yielding combined upper limits on the VHE γ-ray flux.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Satellites for distress alerting and locating: Report by Interagency Committee for Search and Rescue Ad Hoc Working Group

The background behind the congressional legislation that led to the requirement for the Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT) and the Emergency Position-Indicating Radio Beacon (EPIRB) to be installed on certain types of aircraft and inspected marine vessels respectively is discussed. The DAL problem is discussed for existing ELT and EPIRB equipped aircraft and ships. It is recognized that the DAL requirement for CONUS and Alaska and the maritime regions are not identical. In order to address the serious DAL problem which currently exists in CONUS and Alaska, a low orbiting satellite system evolves as the most viable and cost effective alternative that satisfies the overall SAR system design requirements. A satellite system designed to meet the needs of the maritime regions could be either low orbiting or geostationary. The conclusions drawn from this report support the recommendation to proceed with the implementation of a SAR orbiting satellite system.

Ehrlich, E.↗