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Defining and applying an electricity demand flexibility benchmarking metrics framework for grid-interactive efficient commercial buildings

Building demand flexibility (DF) research has recently gained attention. To unlock building DF as a predictable grid resource, we must establish a quantitative understanding of the resource size, performance variability, and predictability based on large empirical datasets. Researchers have proposed various sets of theoretical metrics to measure this performance. Some metrics have been applied to simulation results, but most fall short of exploring the complexities in real building applications. There are practical metrics used in individual demand response field studies but they alone cannot fulfil the job of DF benchmarking across a diverse group of buildings. The electrical grid's geographically diverse and changing nature presents challenges to comparing building DF performance measured under different conditions (i.e., benchmarking DF). To address this challenge, a novel DF benchmarking framework focused on load shedding and shifting is presented; the foundation is a set of simple, proven single-event metrics with attributes describing event conditions. These enable benchmarking and visualization in different dimensions for identifying trends that represent how these attributes influence DF. To test its feasibility and scalability, the DF framework was applied to two case studies of 11 office buildings and 121 big-box retail buildings with demand response participation data. Furthermore, these examples provided a pathway for using both building level benchmarking and aggregation to extract insights into building DF about magnitude, consistency, and influential factors. Potential applications of the framework and real-world values have been identified for grid and building stakeholders.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Background Information on ARPA-E's REUSE Program (White Paper)

Under the REUSE Topic, ARPA-E seeks to fund the development of technologies to convert high-energy materials currently going to landfills to a high-energy content liquid product capable of displacing energy imports used for fuel or chemical production. The high-energy materials include plastics (#1-7 polymers, rubber, and composites) and paper. As discussed below, we estimate 30-34 MM ton plastic, 2-6 MM ton rubber, 18 MM ton of paper, and up to 0.1 MM ton composites are potentially available annually for this purpose. These numbers may be conservative based on changes in the plastic and paper export markets. ARPA-E anticipates deployment of multiple low-cost, simple, flexible, small-scale (100-500 ton per day) regional facilities using modular plants. This scale is consistent with the sources for high-energy materials, which include ~300 Material Recovery Facilities and industrial waste sources. The assumption is that such facilities can be more economical than the paradigm of large-scale facilities making purity products, due to cost for transporting and aggregating waste and the high operating costs (OPEX) and capital cost (CAPEX) for product purification. This document gives a brief technical review for multiple potential process technologies. The review is not intended to be comprehensive or limiting, only to provide an introduction to potential Applicants.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

White Paper: Background Information on ARPA-E's Reuse Program

This document provides supplemental information for ARPA-E’s exploratory research program, “Recycle Underutilized Solids to Energy” (REUSE). The goal is to provide additional technical information to prospective Applicants. Further information is available in a blog interview and webinar at https://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=news-item/trash-treasure-reuse-creates-feedstock-plastic-waste. Award information, submission requirements, evaluation criteria, and other applicable information is provided in Funding Opportunity Announcements DE-FOA-0001953 and DE-FOA-0001954 (SBIR/STTR). REUSE-specific requirements are provided in Topic K of those FOAs, and is available at https://arpa-e-foa.energy.gov/Default.aspx?Search=0001953&SearchType=#FoaIde8647d89-1cac-4b58-8622-1b04de8958c4. Under the REUSE Topic, ARPA-E seeks to fund the development of technologies to convert high-energy materials currently going to landfills to a high-energy content liquid product capable of displacing energy imports used for fuel or chemical production. The high-energy materials include plastics (#1-7 polymers, rubber, and composites) and paper. As discussed below, we estimate 30-34 MM ton plastic, 2-6 MM ton rubber, 18 MM ton of paper, and up to 0.1 MM ton composites are potentially available annually for this purpose. These numbers may be conservative based on changes in the plastic and paper export markets. ARPA-E anticipates deployment of multiple low-cost, simple, flexible, small-scale (100-500 ton per day) regional facilities using modular plants. This scale is consistent with the sources for high-energy materials, which include ~300 Material Recovery Facilities and industrial waste sources. The assumption is that such facilities can be more economical than the paradigm of large-scale facilities making purity products, due to cost for transporting and aggregating waste and the high operating costs (OPEX) and capital cost (CAPEX) for product purification. This document gives a brief technical review for multiple potential process technologies. The review is not intended to be comprehensive or limiting, only to provide an introduction to potential Applicants.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Overcoming the Technical Challenges of Coordinating Distributed Load Resources at Scale (Final Report)

Significant recent research has investigated the potential for loads to provide balancing services to the grid. However, this research has not addressed key issues that may arise when such schemes are applied at scale including: 1. Distribution Network Issues. Coordination of large numbers of loads could result in power flows that violate distribution network constraints; 2. Stability Issues. Certain strategies to control loads can exhibit nonlinearity in the form of period-adding bifurcations and chaos. Other control strategies can potentially synchronize the behavior of large numbers of loads. In both cases, the outcome can be power oscillations and instability; 3. Communication Network Issues. Bidirectional low-latency communication channels between a central controller (or several distributed controllers) and each resource are expensive and likely not necessary for effective coordination. Our research questions were: What network, stability, and communication issues might arise in practice when we coordinate large aggregations of loads? How can we coordinate loads to achieve performance objectives in a cost effective manner while avoiding these issues? The ultimate technical goal of the project was the development of network-aware, communication-constrained, non-disruptive load control strategies with stability guarantees that achieve the performance requirements of typical balancing services at a sufficiently low cost to enable the load aggregator and customer to profit. The overall goal was to establish credibility for load control at scale and contribute to U.S. energy security and environmental goals. The team succeeded in answering these research questions and developing these control strategies. The overall approach was based on the development of three testing environments: a simulation testbed, an experimental testbed (20 physical model houses with window-box air conditioners) coupled with the simulation testbed, and a field testbed (100 actual homes in Austin, TX) coupled with the simulation testbed, which enabled controller testing, identification of issues, controller development, and controller validation. The resulting controller was used to demonstrate fast timescale grid balancing (frequency regulation) by aggregations of physical and virtual air conditioners, with sufficient quality to participate in the electricity market. Cost benefit analysis showed overall benefits to the participating households, load aggregators, and the grid, especially if the control technology was integrated directly into existing programmable communicating thermostats. The project provides a variety of wider benefits. Our technology transfer and outreach activities lead us to choose an open-source licensing commercialization pathway, enabling the project results to be available to researchers, industry, and the public. Furthermore, new grid balancing technologies will increase grid flexibility and will enable higher penetrations of intermittent renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to be connected to the grid, reducing its environmental impact, and mitigating climate change to the benefit of society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Residential Demand Flexibility: Modeling Occupant Behavior using Sociodemographic Predictors

Demand flexibility (DF) has the potential to increase the saturation of renewables in the grid and reduce operating costs for both utilities and customers. However, less than 8% of U.S. residential electric customers are enrolled in DF programs. A major research gap on this topic is an uneven understanding of behavioral drivers of electricity use and DF program participation at the household level. In this study, we employ machine learning models to predict residential occupant behavior in activities relevant to DF. We model occupants' extensive decisions (i.e., choice of action) and intensive behaviors (i.e., amount of time spent) during peak and off-peak time periods using the publicly available American Time Use Survey, which includes activities data for approximately 200,000 respondents. In our machine learning models, predictions for both extensive and intensive behavior fell within a +/-20% error margin at the aggregate level. We identify 13 key sociodemographic predictors of DF-related intensive behavior using LASSO inference and beta coefficient ranking. However, these top predictors differ by activity, suggesting potential scope for differential user targeting for DF events and technologies during program design. This work also contributes to understanding when and who might adopt these DF technologies based on their daily routine activities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

HPC resources for CMS offline computing: An integration and scalability challenge for the Submission Infrastructure

The computing resource needs of LHC experiments are expected to continue growing significantly during the Run 3 and into the HL-LHC era. The landscape of available resources will also evolve, as High Performance Computing (HPC) and Cloud resources will provide a comparable, or even dominant, fraction of the total compute capacity. The future years present a challenge for the experiments’ resource provisioning models, both in terms of scalability and increasing complexity. The CMS Submission Infrastructure (SI) provisions computing resources for CMS workflows. This infrastructure is built on a set of federated HTCondor pools, currently aggregating 400k CPU cores distributed worldwide and supporting the simultaneous execution of over 200k computing tasks. Incorporating HPC resources into CMS computing represents firstly an integration challenge, as HPC centers are much more diverse compared to Grid sites. Secondly, evolving the present SI, dimensioned to harness the current CMS computing capacity, to reach the resource scales required for the HLLHC phase, while maintaining global flexibility and efficiency, will represent an additional challenge for the SI. To preventively address future potential scalability limits, the SI team regularly runs tests to explore the maximum reach of our infrastructure. In this note, the integration of HPC resources into CMS offline computing is summarized, the potential concerns for the SI derived from the increased scale of operations are described, and the most recent results of scalability test on the CMS SI are reported.

Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, Antonio↗

Demand Response in Residential Energy Code: Technical Brief

As buildings account for over 75% of U.S. electricity use, effectively managing their loads can greatly facilitate the transition towards a clean, reliable grid. Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) combine efficiency and demand flexibility with smart technologies and communication to provide occupant comfort and productivity while serving the grid as a distributed energy resource (DER). In turn, GEBs can play a key role in ensuring access to an affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern U.S. electric power system. Their national adoption could provide $\$$100-200 billion in U.S. electric power system cost savings over the next two decades. The associated reduction in CO 2 emissions is estimated at 6% per year by 2030 (DOE 2021). Building codes represent standard design practice in the construction industry and continually evolve to include advanced technologies and innovative practices. Historically, national model energy codes establish minimum efficiency requirements for new construction (ICC 2020). Expanding codes to support GEB capabilities is a pivotal step towards realizing demand flexibility in support of a clean grid by addressing capabilities to improve interoperability between smart building systems, the grid, and renewable energy resources. Realizing GEBs requires buildings with automated demand response (DR) capabilities that enable standardized communication with or control of, subject to explicit consumer consent, energy smart appliances or home energy management systems. This is achieved through direct or indirect (i.e., via an aggregator) communication between appliances and the electric grid. Energy codes can also support DR communication standardization and advance the deployment of building-integrated DERs such as energy storage, generation, and electric vehicles (EVs). Incorporating automated DR capabilities in energy codes provides many benefits to the consumers. Specifically, it aligns building electric load demand with intermittent renewable energy source availability, decreases peak load on the electric grid, allows buildings to respond to utility price signals, supports electrical network reliability and market growth of products and processes aligned with clean economic growth. The incorporation of DR into the model residential energy codes was considered for both the 2021 and 2024 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) code development cycles. The approved DR measures in the 2021 cycle were removed in response to appeals (ICC 2020). Updated language was presented for consideration again for the 2024 IECC, where it was negotiated and again approved, and again removed in response to appeals (ICC 2024). This resulted in many sections, including sections on demand responsive controls, being moved to the credits options or an appendix as a voluntary application. This technical brief updates the proposed DR components such that they can be considered by states and local governments for direct incorporation into their codes, as well as for future IECC energy code development. The proposal refinements are intended to support consistency in approach and provide a degree of certainty for building owners, designers, contractors, manufacturers, and building and fire safety professionals. The scope of this technical brief includes three strategies for DR in residential buildings: 1) smart thermostats with demand-responsive control, 2) electric water heating incorporating demand-responsive controls and communication and 3) grid Integrated solar and energy storage systems.

2021 IECC↗

Aero-Propulsive Modeling for eVTOL Aircraft Using Wind Tunnel Testing with Multisine Inputs

A novel approach for modeling the aero-propulsive characteristics of an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft was developed and demonstrated in wind tunnel testing. The approach was applied to the NASA LA-8 tandem tilt-wing eVTOL aircraft, using an efficient, hybrid experiment design composed of a static I-optimal response surface design for slowly-varying test variables, and dynamic orthogonal phase-optimized multisine excitations for the control surfaces and electric propulsors. Both the static and dynamic experiment designs were executed simultaneously to collect informative data for model identification. Statistically-weighted multivariate orthogonal function modeling was used to combine local modeling results computed in the frequency domain using data collected with dynamic excitations operating on the control effectors to form an aggregate aero-propulsive model. The final identified model exhibited good predictive capability when compared to validation data acquired separately from the data used to develop the model. The required test time using these new techniques was reduced by at least a factor of five compared to previous static wind tunnel testing for the LA-8 aircraft, while providing more informative data, greater parameterization flexibility, and high-quality models.

system identification↗

The Role of the NASA Global Hawk Link Module as an Information Nexus For Atmospheric Mapping Missions

The Link Module described in this paper was developed for the NASA Uninhabited Aerial System (UAS) Global Hawk Pacific Mission (GloPAC) Airborne Science Campaign; four flights of 30 hour duration, supporting the Aura Validation Experiment (AVE). It was used again during the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, a NASA Earth Science field experiment to better understand how tropical storms form and develop into major hurricanes. In these missions, the Link Module negotiated all communication over the high bandwidth Ku satellite link, archived all the science data from onboard experiments in a spatially enabled database, routed command and control of the instruments from the Global Hawk Operations Center, and re-transmitted select data sets directly to experimenters control and analysis systems. The availability of aggregated information from collections of sensors, and remote control capabilities, in real-time, is revolutionizing the way Airborne Science is being conducted. The Link Module NG now being flown in support of the NASA Earth Venture missions, the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission, and Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (A TTREX) mission, has advanced data fusion technologies that are further advancing the Scientific productivity, flexibility and robustness of these systems. On-the-fly traffic shaping has been developed to allow the high definition video, used for critical flight control segments, to dynamically allocate variable bandwidth on demand. Historically, the Link Module evolved from the instrument and communication interface controller used by NASA's Pathfinder and Pathfinder plus solar powered UAS's in the late 1990' s. It later was expanded for use in the AIRDAS four channel scanner flown on the NASA Altus UAS, and then again to a module in the AMS twelve channel multispectral scanner flying on the NASA (Predator-b) Ikhana UAS. The current system is the answer to the challenges imposed by extremely long duration UASs, with on-board multi-instrument (>= 12) Sensor Webs.

Hurricanes↗

A Methodology for Reliability Assessments of Arbitrary Satellite Constellations

The commercial success of small satellite development and multi-satellite missions has led to constellation missions being proposed in every sector of the market. This paradigm shift has the potential to enable more capable and cost-effective space science missions. However, these novel approaches to space missions have outstripped existing policy and analysis methods for assessing the reliability of multi-satellite missions. Mission designers and decisionmakers need new methods and standards for modeling how the reliability of constituent spacecraft elements affect the aggregate reliability of constellations across a wide range of concepts and application-specific requirements. The Space Mission Analysis Branch at NASA’s Langley Research Center has developed a methodology for simulating the on-orbit reliability of arbitrary spacecraft constellations. In this paper, the authors describe the methodology and provides examples of how it can be used to evaluate specific constellation designs. To demonstrate the flexibility of the approach, several different constellation configurations are considered, including both homogenous and heterogenous designs. Next, the authors demonstrate the ability to perform broad parameter sweeps to develop greater insight into the intrinsic reliability trends associated with constellation concepts. Finally, the authors provide tables and novel data graphics which enable decisionmakers to quickly discern the relationships between constellation sizes, topologies, replenishment strategies, and overall constellation reliability.

satellite↗

Phylogenetic Conservatism in Plant Phenology

Phenological events defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing 4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the set of included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrasting mean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of year that is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses.Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conserved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species' shared evolutionary histories.

phylogenetic conservatism↗

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Luxhoj, J. T.↗

Grid Services Load Shift Baseline Degradation Analysis Methodology v1

As demand flexibility becomes more common, the mix and frequency of a range of demand flexibility strategies will introduce potential biases into baselines, i.e., the time period immediately prior to a LS event may include other LS or DF events. Baseline degradation assessment provides an approach to quantify how these biases begin to compromise predictive accuracy. Heatmaps, based on each month of the year provides a granular view of a given model's predictive capability. However, for comparing multiple algorithms, separately for weekdays and weekends, aggregating results to seasons provides a simpler means of comparison while still allowing for review of variations by time of day and time of year

Fernandes, Samuel↗

An Information NEXUS: The NASA Global Hawk Link Module

The Link Module described in this paper was first developed for the NASA Global Hawk Pacific Mission (GloPAC), four flights of 30 hour duration, supporting the Aura Validation Experiment (AVE). Its second use was during the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, a NASA Earth Science field experiment to better understand how tropical storms form and develop into major hurricanes. In these missions, the Link module negotiated all communication over the high bandwidth Ku satellite link, archived al the science data from onboard experiments in a spatially enable database, routed command and control of the instruments from the Global Hawk Operations Center, and retransmitted select data sets directly to experimenters control and analysis systems. The availability of aggregated information from collections of sensors, and remote control capabilities, in real-time, is revolutionizing the way Airborne Science is being conducted. Also described is the next generation Link Module now being designed and tested to support the NASA Earth Venture missions, the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission, and Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) mission. Advanced data fusion technologies being developed will further advance the Scientific productivity, flexibility and robustness of these systems. Historically, the Link module evolved from the instrument and communication interface controller used by NASA's Pathfinder and Pathfinder plus solar powered UAS's in the late 1990's. It later was expanded for use in the AIRDAS four channel scanner flown on the NASA Altus UAS, and then again to a module in the AMS twelve channel multispectral scanner flying on the NASA (Predator-b) Ikhana UAS. The current system is the next step in the evolution, a multi board system packaged in a Curtiss Wright MIL-spec, flight qualified enclosure.

Remote Sensing↗

A multi-criteria CCUS screening evaluation of the Gulf of Mexico, USA

Continued research into reservoir characterization along with offshore carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) transportation and infrastructure assets is needed to facilitate development of safe and successful carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. This paper outlines a multi-criteria evaluation methodology that incorporates disparate sets of quantitative, spatially variable data into a decision-making framework for screening the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) outer continental shelf (OCS) for potentially viable CO 2 storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) sites. Criteria categories include favorable geologic characteristics, logistics, and potential risks. Data compiled for 14 criteria from several publicly available geographic information system (GIS) layers was aggregated over 2559 spatially balanced points across the study area using the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)-developed Cumulative Spatial Impact Layers™ (CSIL) GIS tool. Criteria are weighted by qualitative expert opinion relative to their perceived importance to given scenarios— the output of combined criteria values and weights enables regional CO 2 storage suitability differentiation. The methodology considers both technical and non-technical factors impacting CCUS decision-making. The flexible methodology enables a systematic approach to regional ranking at high spatial resolution over a large study domain. Additionally, the framework enables high-grading of priority sites that warrant further characterization and follow-on analysis. Areas along the Louisiana coast and Mississippi River Delta consistently rank high for all scenarios largely a result of the favorable geology with the potential for stacked storage, as well as the density of existing pipelines and platforms, and proximity to several onshore CO 2 sources. High-graded regions for the CO 2 EOR-related scenarios are typically located further offshore towards the middle and edge of the OCS compared to higher priority regions for the geologic storage scenarios which fall closer to the Louisiana coastline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

UnifyFS: A User-level Shared File System for Unified Access to Distributed Local Storage

We introduce UnifyFS, a user-level file system that aggregates node-local storage tiers available on high performance computing (HPC) systems and makes them available to HPC applications under a unified namespace. UnifyFS employs transparent I/O interception, so it does not require changes to application code and is compatible with commonly used HPC I/O libraries. The design of UnifyFS supports the predominant HPC I/O workloads and is optimized for bulk-synchronous I/O patterns. Furthermore, UnifyFS provides customizable file system semantics to flexibly adapt its behavior for diverse I/O workloads and storage devices. In this paper, we discuss the unique design goals and architecture of UnifyFS and evaluate its performance on a leadership-class HPC system. In our experimental results, we demonstrate that UnifyFS exhibits excellent scaling performance for write operations and can improve the performance of application checkpoint operations by as much as 3× versus a tuned configuration.

Brim, Michael↗

Parametric Analysis of Life Support Systems for Future Space Exploration Missions

Having adopted a flexible path approach to space exploration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration is in a process of evaluating future targets for space exploration. In order to maintain the welfare of a crew during future missions, a suite of life support technology is responsible for oxygen and water generation, carbon dioxide control, the removal of trace concentrations of organic contaminants, processing and recovery of water, and the storage and reclamation of solid waste. For each particular life support subsystem, a variety competing technologies either exist or are under aggressive development efforts. Each individual technology has strengths and weaknesses with regard to launch mass, power and cooling requirements, volume of hardware and consumables, and crew time requirements for operation. However, from a system level perspective, the favorability of each life support architecture is better assessed when the sub-system technologies are analyzed in aggregate. In order to evaluate each specific life support system architecture, the measure of equivalent system mass (ESM) was employed to benchmark system favorability. Moreover, the results discussed herein will be from the context of loop-closure with respect to the air, water, and waste sub-systems. Specifically, closure relates to the amount of consumables mass that crosses the boundary of the vehicle over the lifetime of a mission. As will be demonstrated in this manuscript, the optimal level of loop closure is heavily dependent upon mission requirements such as duration and the level of extra- vehicular activity (EVA) performed. Sub-system level trades were also considered as a function of mission duration to assess when increased loop closure is practical. Although many additional factors will likely merit consideration in designing life support systems for future missions, the ESM results described herein provide a context for future architecture design decisions toward a flexible path program.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗

Understanding the Lunar System Architecture Design Space

Based on the flexible path strategy and the desire of the international community, the lunar surface remains a destination for future human exploration. This paper explores options within the lunar system architecture design space, identifying performance requirements placed on the propulsive system that performs Earth departure within that architecture based on existing and/or near-term capabilities. The lander crew module and ascent stage propellant mass fraction are primary drivers for feasibility in multiple lander configurations. As the aggregation location moves further out of the lunar gravity well, the lunar lander is required to perform larger burns, increasing the sensitivity to these two factors. Adding an orbit transfer stage to a two-stage lunar lander and using a large storable stage for braking with a one-stage lunar lander enable higher aggregation locations than Low Lunar Orbit. Finally, while using larger vehicles enables a larger feasible design space, there are still feasible scenarios that use three launches of smaller vehicles.

Arney, Dale C.↗