Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Yield Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Lifetimes of lunar satellite orbits

The Space Exploration Initiative has generated a renewed interest in lunar mission planning. The lunar missions currently under study, unlike the Apollo missions, involve long stay times. Several lunar gravity models have been formulated, but mission planners do not have enough confidence in the proposed models to conduct detailed studies of missions with long stay times. In this report, a particular lunar gravitational model, the Ferrari 5 x 5 model, was chosen to determine the lifetimes for 100-km and 300-km perilune altitude, near-circular parking orbits. The need to analyze orbital lifetimes for a large number of initial orbital parameters was the motivation for the formulation of a simplified gravitational model from the original model. Using this model, orbital lifetimes were found to be heavily dependent on the initial conditions of the nearly circular orbits, particularly the initial inclination and argument of perilune. This selected model yielded lifetime predictions of less than 40 days for some orbits, and other orbits had lifetimes exceeding a year. Although inconsistencies and limitations are inherent in all existing lunar gravity models, primarily because of a lack of information about the far side of the moon, the methods presented in this analysis are suitable for incorporating the moon's nonspherical gravitational effects on the preliminary design level for future lunar mission planning.

Meyer, Kurt W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Sudden Radiative Braking in Colliding Hot-Star Winds

When two hot-star winds collide, their interaction centers at the point where the momentum fluxes balance. However, in WR+O systems, the imbalance in the corporeal momentum fluxes may be extreme enough to preclude a standard head-on wind/wind collision. On the other hand, an important component of the total momentum flux in radiatively driven winds is carried by photons. Thus, if the wind interaction region has sufficient scattering opacity, it can reflect stellar photons and cause important radiative terms to enter the momentum balance. This radiative input would result in additional braking of the wind. We use a radiative-hydrodynamics calculation to show that such radiative braking can be an important effect in many types of colliding hot-star winds. Characterized by sudden deceleration of the stronger wind in the vicinity of the weak-wind star, it can allow a wind ram balance that would otherwise be impossible in many WR+O systems with separations less than a few hundred solar radii. It also greatly weakens the shock strength and the encumbent X ray production. We demonstrate the significant features of this effect using V444 Cygni as a characteristic example. We also derive a general analytic theory that applies to a wide class of binaries, yielding simple predictions for when radiative braking should play an important role.

Gayley, K. G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Relative Influence of Initial Surface and Atmospheric Conditions on Seasonal Water and Energy Balances

We constructed and analyzed wet and dry soil moisture composites for the mid-latitude GCIP region of the central US using long climate model simulations made with the NCAR CCM3 and reanalysis products from NCEP. Using the diagnostic composites as a guide, we have completed a series of predictability experiments in which we imposed soil water initial conditions in CCM3 for the GCIP region for June 1 from anomalously wet and dry years, with atmospheric initial conditions taken from June 1 of a year with 'near-normal' soil water, and initial soil water from the near-normal year and atmospheric initial conditions from the wet and dry years. Preliminary results indicate that the initial state of the atmosphere is more important than the initial state of soil water determining the subsequent late spring and summer evolution of sod water over the GCIP region. Surprisingly, neither the composites or the predictability experiments yielded a strong influence of soil moisture on the atmosphere. To explore this further, we have made runs with extreme dry soil moisture initial anomalies imposed over the GCIP region (the soil close to being completely dry). These runs did yield a very strong effect on the atmosphere that persisted for at least three months. We conclude that the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly is crucial, at least in CCM3, and are currently investigating whether a threshold exists, below which little impact is seen. In a complementary study, we compared the impact of the initial condition of snow cover versus the initial atmospheric state over the western US (corresponding to the westward extension of the GAPP program follow-on to GCIP). In this case, the initial prescription of snow cover is far more important than the initial atmospheric state in determining the subsequent evolution of snow cover. We are currently working to understand the very different soil water and snow cover results.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Probabilistic and Possibilistic Analyses of the Strength of a Bonded Joint

The effects of uncertainties on the strength of a single lap shear joint are explained. Probabilistic and possibilistic methods are used to account for uncertainties. Linear and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses are used in the studies. To evaluate the strength of the joint, fracture in the adhesive and material strength failure in the strap are considered. The study shows that linear analyses yield conservative predictions for failure loads. The possibilistic approach for treating uncertainties appears to be viable for preliminary design, but with several qualifications.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗
NASA NTRS2001

Soot Formation in Laminar Premixed Ethylene/Air Flames at Atmospheric Pressure

Soot formation was studied within laminar premixed ethylene/air flames (C/O ratios of 0.78-0.98) stabilized on a flat-flame burner operating at atmospheric pressure. Measurements included soot volume fractions by both laser extinction and gravimetric methods, temperatures by multiline emission, soot structure by thermophoretic sampling and transmission electron microscopy, major gas species concentrations by sampling and gas chromatography, concentrations of condensable hydrocarbons by gravimetric sampling. and velocities by laser velocimetry. These data were used to find soot surface growth rates and primary soot particle nucleation rates along the axes of the flames. Present measurements of soot surface growth rates were correlated successfully by predictions based on typical hydrogen-abstraction/carbon-addition (HACA) mechanisms of Frenklach and co-workers and Colket and Hall. These results suavest that reduced soot surface growth rates with increasing residence time seen in the present and other similar flames were mainly caused by reduced rates of surface activation due to reduced H atom concentrations as temperatures decrease as a result of radiative heat losses. Primary soot particle nucleation rates exhibited variations with temperature and acetylene concentrations that were similar to recent observations for diffusion flames; however, nucleation rates in the premixed flames were significantly lower than in, the diffusion flames for reasons that still must be explained. Finally, predictions of yields of major gas species based on mechanisms from both Frenklach and co-workers and Leung and Lindstedt were in good agreement with present measurements and suggest that H atom concentrations (relevant to HACA mechanisms) approximate estimates based on local thermodynamic equilibrium in the present flames.

Xu, F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Modeling human vestibular responses during eccentric rotation and off vertical axis rotation

A mathematical model has been developed to help explain human multi-sensory interactions. The most important constituent of the model is the hypothesis that the nervous system incorporates knowledge of sensory dynamics into an "internal model" of these dynamics. This internal model allows the nervous system to integrate the sensory information from many different sensors into a coherent estimate of self-motion. The essence of the model is unchanged from a previously published model of monkey eye movement responses; only a few variables have been adjusted to yield the prediction of human responses. During eccentric rotation, the model predicts that the axis of eye rotation shifts slightly toward alignment with gravito-inertial force. The model also predicts that the time course of the perception of tilt following the acceleration phase of eccentric rotation is much slower than that during deceleration. During off vertical axis rotation (OVAR) the model predicts a small horizontal bias along with small horizontal, vertical, and torsional oscillations. Following OVAR stimulation, when stopped right- or left-side down, a small vertical component is predicted that decays with the horizontal post-rotatory response. All of the predictions are consistent with measurements of human responses.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Optimization of Trained and Untrained Image Classification Algorithms for Use on Large Spatial Datasets

The HARVIST project seeks to automatically provide an accurate, interactive interface to predict crop yield over the entire United States. In order to accomplish this goal, large images must be quickly and automatically classified by crop type. Current trained and untrained classification algorithms, while accurate, are highly inefficient when operating on large datasets. This project sought to develop new variants of two standard trained and untrained classification algorithms that are optimized to take advantage of the spatial nature of image data. The first algorithm, harvist-cluster, utilizes divide-and-conquer techniques to precluster an image in the hopes of increasing overall clustering speed. The second algorithm, harvistSVM, utilizes support vector machines (SVMs), a type of trained classifier. It seeks to increase classification speed by applying a "meta-SVM" to a quick (but inaccurate) SVM to approximate a slower, yet more accurate, SVM. Speedups were achieved by tuning the algorithm to quickly identify when the quick SVM was incorrect, and then reclassifying low-confidence pixels as necessary. Comparing the classification speeds of both algorithms to known baselines showed a slight speedup for large values of k (the number of clusters) for harvist-cluster, and a significant speedup for harvistSVM. Future work aims to automate the parameter tuning process required for harvistSVM, and further improve classification accuracy and speed. Additionally, this research will move documents created in Canvas into ArcGIS. The launch of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) will provide a wealth of image data such as global maps of Martian weather and high resolution global images of Mars. The ability to store this new data in a georeferenced format will support future Mars missions by providing data for landing site selection and the search for water on Mars.

Kocurek, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Mergers of Non-spinning Black-hole Binaries: Gravitational Radiation Characteristics

We present a detailed descriptive analysis of the gravitational radiation from black-hole binary mergers of non-spinning black holes, based on numerical simulations of systems varying from equal-mass to a 6:1 mass ratio. Our primary goal is to present relatively complete information about the waveforms, including all the leading multipolar components, to interested researchers. In our analysis, we pursue the simplest physical description of the dominant features in the radiation, providing an interpretation of the waveforms in terms of an implicit rotating source. This interpretation applies uniformly to the full wavetrain, from inspiral through ringdown. We emphasize strong relationships among the l = m modes that persist through the full wavetrain. Exploring the structure of the waveforms in more detail, we conduct detailed analytic fitting of the late-time frequency evolution, identifying a key quantitative feature shared by the l = m modes among all mass-ratios. We identify relationships, with a simple interpretation in terms of the implicit rotating source, among the evolution of frequency and amplitude, which hold for the late-time radiation. These detailed relationships provide sufficient information about the late-time radiation to yield a predictive model for the late-time waveforms, an alternative to the common practice of modeling by a sum of quasinormal mode overtones. We demonstrate an application of this in a new effective-one-body-based analytic waveform model.

Baker, John G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Salience Assignment for Multiple-Instance Regression

We present a Multiple-Instance Learning (MIL) algorithm for determining the salience of each item in each bag with respect to the bag's real-valued label. We use an alternating-projections constrained optimization approach to simultaneously learn a regression model and estimate all salience values. We evaluate this algorithm on a significant real-world problem, crop yield modeling, and demonstrate that it provides more extensive, intuitive, and stable salience models than Primary-Instance Regression, which selects a single relevant item from each bag.

regression↗
NASA NTRS2008

Multiple Instance Regression with Structured Data

This slide presentation reviews the use of multiple instance regression with structured data from multiple and related data sets. It applies the concept to a practical problem, that of estimating crop yield using remote sensed country wide weekly observations.

multiple instance regression↗
NASA NTRS2013

Recalibration of the Shear Stress Transport Model to Improve Calculation of Shock Separated Flows

The Menter Shear Stress Transport (SST) k . turbulence model is one of the most widely used two-equation Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulence models for aerodynamic analyses. The model extends Menter s baseline (BSL) model to include a limiter that prevents the calculated turbulent shear stress from exceeding a prescribed fraction of the turbulent kinetic energy via a proportionality constant, a1, set to 0.31. Compared to other turbulence models, the SST model yields superior predictions of mild adverse pressure gradient flows including those with small separations. In shock - boundary layer interaction regions, the SST model produces separations that are too large while the BSL model is on the other extreme, predicting separations that are too small. In this paper, changing a1 to a value near 0.355 is shown to significantly improve predictions of shock separated flows. Several cases are examined computationally and experimental data is also considered to justify raising the value of a1 used for shock separated flows.

Georgiadis, Nicholas J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Effect of Distributed Patch of Smooth Roughness Elements on Transition in a High-Speed Boundary Layer

Surface roughness is known to have a substantial impact on the aerothermodynamic loading of hypersonic vehicles, particularly via its influence on the laminar-turbulent transition process within the boundary layer. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effects of a distributed region of densely packed, smooth-shaped roughness elements on the laminar boundary layer over a 7-degree half-angle, circular cone for flow conditions corresponding to a selected trajectory point from the ascent phase of the HIFiRE-1 flight experiment. For peak-to-valley roughness heights of 50 percent or less in comparison with the thickness of the unperturbed boundary layer, the computations converge to a stationary flow, suggesting that the flow is globally stable. Analysis of convective instabilities in the wake of the roughness patch indicates two dominant families of unstable disturbances, namely, a high frequency mode that corresponds to Mack mode waves modified by the wake and a lower frequency mode that corresponds to shear layer instabilities associated with the streaks in the roughness wake. Even though the peak growth rate of the later mode is more than 35 percent greater than the peak growth rates of the Mack modes, the latter modes achieve higher amplification ratios, and hence, are likely to dominate the onset of transition, which is estimated to occur slightly later than that in the unperturbed, i.e., smooth surface boundary layer. Additional computations are performed to investigate the effects of various roughness patch configurations on a Mach 3.5 flat plate boundary layer, to help guide an upcoming experiment in the Mach 3.5 Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. In this case, the cumulative reinforcement of basic state distortion over the length of the roughness patch is predicted to yield a significantly earlier transition than that over a smooth plate or a plate with a shorter length roughness patch.

Meelan Choudhari↗
NASA NTRS2020

High Angular Resolution ALMA Images of Dust and Molecules in the SN 1987A Ejecta

We present high angular resolution (∼80 mas) ALMA continuum images of the SN1987A system, together with CO J = 21, J = 65, and SiO J = 54 to J = 76 images, which clearly resolve the ejecta (dust continuum and molecules) and ring (synchrotron continuum) components. Dust in the ejecta is asymmetric and clumpy, and overall the dust fills the spatial void seen in Hα images, filling that region with material from heavier elements. The dust clumps generally fill the space where CO J = 6 5 is fainter, tentatively indicating that these dust clumps and CO are locationally and chemically linked. In these regions, carbonaceous dust grains might have formed after dissociation of CO. The dust grains would have cooled by radiation, and subsequent collisions of grains with gas would also cool the gas, suppressing the CO J = 6 5 intensity. The data show a dust peak spatially coincident with the molecular hole seen in previous ALMA CO J = 2 1 and SiO J = 5 4 images. That dust peak, combined with CO and SiO line spectra, suggests that the dust and gas could be at higher temperatures than the surrounding material, though higher density cannot be totally excluded. One of the possibilities is that a compact source provides additional heat at that location. Fits to the far-infrared–millimeter spectral energy distribution give ejecta dust temperatures of 18–23 K. We revise the ejecta dust mass to Mdust = 0.2–0.4 Mfor carbon or silicate grains, or a maximum of <0.7 Mfor a mixture of grain species, using the predicted nucleosynthesis yields as an upper limit.

Interstellar dust↗
NASA NTRS2020

Continued Discussion of Failure Mode Modeling and Overall Component Reliability: Are the Data Missing or Censored?

This paper is the continuation of a paper presented at the 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, in which a methodology of modeling failure modes of complex components was presented; see Paulos and Smith (2016). This methodology is not particularly helpful in the space industry where there is a lack of failure data, but is more helpful in industries that see a lot of component repairs and improvements, such as in the aircraft or automotive industries. The previous paper demonstrated how the typical approach of treating failure modes as being exponential in nature may yield optimistic predictions when estimating how improvements to components will perform in the future. It is more accurate to model the failure modes as a race in time; unfortunately, this does not give a closed-form solution. This paper uses simulation to solve for the model of the world, and the results compared to the standard methodology of treating the failure modes as being exponential random failures. The standard method is shown to have optimistic predictions, which will lead to prediction errors when failure modes are removed or “fixed.” The failure mode methodology presented in the first paper treated the data as being censored when the test stopped. In this paper, we will compare the results from treating the data as both censored and missing.

Smith, Curtis↗
NASA NTRS1996

Development of a Land Use Mapping and Monitoring Protocol for the High Plains Region: A Multitemporal Remote Sensing Application

The purpose of this project was to develop a practical protocol that employs multitemporal remotely sensed imagery, integrated with environmental parameters to model and monitor agricultural and natural resources in the High Plains Region of the United States. The value of this project would be extended throughout the region via workshops targeted at carefully selected audiences and designed to transfer remote sensing technology and the methods and applications developed. Implementation of such a protocol using remotely sensed satellite imagery is critical for addressing many issues of regional importance, including: (1) Prediction of rural land use/land cover (LULC) categories within a region; (2) Use of rural LULC maps for successive years to monitor change; (3) Crop types derived from LULC maps as important inputs to water consumption models; (4) Early prediction of crop yields; (5) Multi-date maps of crop types to monitor patterns related to crop change; (6) Knowledge of crop types to monitor condition and improve prediction of crop yield; (7) More precise models of crop types and conditions to improve agricultural economic forecasts; (8;) Prediction of biomass for estimating vegetation production, soil protection from erosion forces, nonpoint source pollution, wildlife habitat quality and other related factors; (9) Crop type and condition information to more accurately predict production of biogeochemicals such as CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases that are inputs to global climate models; (10) Provide information regarding limiting factors (i.e., economic constraints of pumping, fertilizing, etc.) used in conjunction with other factors, such as changes in climate for predicting changes in rural LULC; (11) Accurate prediction of rural LULC used to assess the effectiveness of government programs such as the U.S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Conservation Reserve Program; and (12) Prediction of water demand based on rural LULC that can be related to rates of draw-down of underground water supplies.

Price, Kevin P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

Analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, and the surface vibration was used as input to the BEM to predict the sound intensity and sound power. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis. Noise predicted by the BEM was validated by sound intensity measurements. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: (1) sound power predicted by the BEM modeling using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; (2) sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and (3) sound power measured by a sound intensity scan. The sound power predicted from the BEM model using measured vibration data yields an excellent prediction of radiated noise. The sound power predicted by the combined FEM/BEM model also gives a good prediction of radiated noise except for a shift of the natural frequencies that are due to limitations in the FEM model.

Seybert, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Interval Predictor Models with a Formal Characterization of Uncertainty and Reliability

This paper develops techniques for constructing empirical predictor models based on observations. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single predicted output at each value of the model's inputs, Interval Predictors Models (IPM) yield an interval into which the unobserved output is predicted to fall. The IPMs proposed prescribe the output as an interval valued function of the model's inputs, render a formal description of both the uncertainty in the model's parameters and of the spread in the predicted output. Uncertainty is prescribed as a hyper-rectangular set in the space of model's parameters. The propagation of this set through the empirical model yields a range of outputs of minimal spread containing all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs and eliminating the effects of outliers are proposed. Outliers are identified by evaluating the extent by which they degrade the tightness of the prediction. This evaluation can be carried out while the IPM is calculated. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization program used for calculating the IPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex program), the model's reliability (that is, the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted range of outputs) can be bounded rigorously by a non-asymptotic formula.

Crespo, Luis G.↗