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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in Four Decades of Near‐CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40‐year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6‐hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture‐related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short‐term intensity variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Species Energy‐Banded Ions in the Ionosphere During the 21 January 2005 Magnetic Storm: Low‐Altitude Edge of the Warm Plasma Cloak

During the 21–22 January 2005 magnetic storm, the FAST satellite observed warm (< few keV) ions in discrete energy bands on the dayside at ∼3,000 km altitude for more than 6.5 hr. We suggest that the ionospheric energy-banded ions represent the low-altitude edge of the warm plasma cloak observed simultaneously by magnetospheric satellites. This is a clear example of the multi-species ion energy bands (10 eV to several keV) observed during strong magnetic storms by the FAST satellite, stretching from the diffuse auroral region to the plasmapause with lifetimes up to 12 hr. The close association of these energy-banded ions with magnetic storms, their broad latitudinal extent, and the presence of multiple ion species in the same energy band, rather than at the same velocity, indicate that this is a distinct phenomenon from other types of energy-banded ions. During the 21–22 January 2005 magnetic storm, the dayside ion energy band structures, centered at 10 eV (H + ), 40 eV (H + and He + ), and 160 eV (H + , He + , and O + ), were consistent with a “time-of-flight and velocity filter” formation process acting on a near-cusp, impulsive outflow of a <200 eV multi-species ion-source population, poleward and in the same hemisphere as FAST. Understanding the sources and dynamics of warm energy-banded ions and their linkage to the warm plasma cloak is important because during superstorms these ions are transported to L values as low as L ∼ 1.2 in the dawn sector, significantly altering the energetics of the mid-latitude ionosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Plant‐Induced Changes Mediate Belowground Carbon Cycling in an Experimentally Warmed Peatland

Warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 profoundly impact peatland ecosystems, particularly through changes in plant species composition. Plants regulate the initial input of organic compounds to peatland belowground systems, controlling the availability of electron donors and electron acceptors that fuel microbially mediated organic matter decomposition to CO 2 and CH 4 . However, explicit links between porewater CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics and plant-derived chemical compounds remain relatively undefined. In a whole ecosystem warming experiment, we investigated how warming affects plant leaf chemical composition and species assemblages, and how the alteration of leaf-derived organic compounds supplied to the subsurface impacts belowground CO 2 and CH 4 production. While earlier studies at our site found no temperature-dependent changes in CH 4 production pathways, our extended timeseries has revealed increased acetoclastic methanogenesis at higher temperatures in certain peat depths, correlated with elevated porewater phenolics. These changes appear driven by the observed increased plant productivity and altered vegetation inputs, which accelerate decomposition and fuel CH 4 production through enhanced substrate availability. In conclusion, we observed warming-induced changes in molecular composition both between and within plant species, suggesting that plant-mediated controls on belowground carbon processing are more complex than previously recognized.

Wilson, Rachel M. [Florida State Univ., Tallahasse↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interconnection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions and Cloud Feedback Through Warm Rain Process

Recent research has revealed a correlation within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations: models exhibiting more pronounced warming due to positive cloud feedback simultaneously show enhanced cooling from aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI). However, the interplay between ACI and cloud feedback is not well understood in these models. Our study addresses this gap by modifying the autoconversion rate in two Earth system models (ESMs), elucidating how ACI could connect with cloud feedback through the warm rain process. We find that higher autoconversion rates, which are associated with stronger ACI, suppress the increase in cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud optical depth with warming by enhancing the precipitation efficiency over the extratropical regions, leading to a larger positive cloud feedback. This study offers new insights into the compensatory mechanism between ACI and cloud feedback through the warm rain process and highlights the importance of constraining the autoconversion parameterization in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metabolic capabilities mute positive response to direct and indirect impacts of warming throughout the soil profile

Increasing global temperatures are predicted to stimulate soil microbial respiration. The direct and indirect impacts of warming on soil microbes, nevertheless, remain unclear. This is particularly true for understudied subsoil microbes. Here, we show that 4.5 years of whole-profile soil warming in a temperate mixed forest results in altered microbial community composition and metabolism in surface soils, partly due to carbon limitation. However, microbial communities in the subsoil responded differently to warming than in the surface. Throughout the soil profile—but to a greater extent in the subsoil—physiologic and genomic measurements show that phylogenetically different microbes could utilize complex organic compounds, dampening the effect of altered resource availability induced by warming. We find subsoil microbes had 20% lower carbon use efficiencies and 47% lower growth rates compared to surface soils, which constrain microbial communities. Collectively, our results show that unlike in surface soils, elevated microbial respiration in subsoils may continue without microbial community change in the near-term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proton stopping measurements at low velocity in warm dense carbon

Abstract Ion stopping in warm dense matter is a process of fundamental importance for the understanding of the properties of dense plasmas, the realization and the interpretation of experiments involving ion-beam-heated warm dense matter samples, and for inertial confinement fusion research. The theoretical description of the ion stopping power in warm dense matter is difficult notably due to electron coupling and degeneracy, and measurements are still largely missing. In particular, the low-velocity stopping range, that features the largest modelling uncertainties, remains virtually unexplored. Here, we report proton energy-loss measurements in warm dense plasma at unprecedented low projectile velocities. Our energy-loss data, combined with a precise target characterization based on plasma-emission measurements using two independent spectroscopy diagnostics, demonstrate a significant deviation of the stopping power from classical models in this regime. In particular, we show that our results are in closest agreement with recent first-principles simulations based on time-dependent density functional theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbially mediated mechanisms underlie soil carbon accrual by conservation agriculture under decade-long warming

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands by switching from conventional to conservation management may be hampered by stimulated microbial decomposition under warming. Here, we test the interactive effects of agricultural management and warming on SOC persistence and underlying microbial mechanisms in a decade-long controlled experiment on a wheat-maize cropping system. Warming increased SOC content and accelerated fungal community temporal turnover under conservation agriculture (no tillage, chopped crop residue), but not under conventional agriculture (annual tillage, crop residue removed). Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) and growth increased linearly over time, with stronger positive warming effects after 5 years under conservation agriculture. According to structural equation models, these increases arose from greater carbon inputs from the crops, which indirectly controlled microbial CUE via changes in fungal communities. As a result, fungal necromass increased from 28 to 53%, emerging as the strongest predictor of SOC content. Collectively, our results demonstrate how management and climatic factors can interact to alter microbial community composition, physiology and functions and, in turn, SOC formation and accrual in croplands.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R. [Lawrence Berkeley Nati↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dataset about Warming Effects on Carbon Cycling and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Permafrost Ecosystems

Field observations provide direct evidence of how does carbon cycling in permafrost ecosystems respond to climate change. This study provides a comprehensive dataset on the impact of warming on carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in permafrost ecosystems. The dataset is extracted and integrated from 132 peer-reviewed studies with 1430 paired observations across eight major permafrost ecosystems, including Arctic and subarctic tundra and wetland, and alpine meadow, steppe, tundra and wetland. This dataset includes 17 variables from experiments conducted during the growing season, covering the plant and soil carbon pools, soil nitrogen pool, and GHG (i.e., CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) fluxes, among others. Background information on site climate conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics, and details of the warming experiments, including timing, methods, and warming magnitude, are also contained in the dataset. This dataset facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the impact of warming on carbon cycling and GHG fluxes in permafrost ecosystems, and provides supports for meta-analyses and literature reviews, remote sensing data validation, and land model development and parameterization.

Bao, Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beiji↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing ab initio and quantum-kinetic approaches to electron transport in warm dense matter

Accurate knowledge of the electronic transport properties of warm dense matter is one of the main concerns of research in high-energy-density physics. Three modern approaches with vastly different levels of fidelity are reviewed and compared: the Kubo–Greenwood (KG) approach based on density-functional-theory molecular dynamics simulations (QMD), quantum kinetic theory based on average-atom models, and time-dependent density functional theory. Throughout, emphasis is placed on the connection between static properties of the electrons (e.g., density of states) and transport properties. Overall, it is found that whenever the conduction electrons can be modeled as being nearly free, fair to excellent agreement is found between QMD and kinetic theory approaches. Such a circumstance is required for modeling warm dense matter as a plasma of ions and free electrons, which is assumed in most kinetic theory approaches. The sensitivity of transport properties to the electronic structure is further highlighted by comparing different exchange–correlation approximations in QMD and KG calculations. It is found that the inclusion of exact exchange via thermal hybrid functionals can make a pronounced impact on electrical and thermal conduction in warm dense matter. We also investigate dynamic screening physics via kinetic theory and time-dependent density functional theory calculations of the mean free path of an electron in a hot dense plasma. In sum, we identify three axes along which to make progress in predicting electron transport in warm dense matter.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Internal variability and forcing influence model–satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming

Climate-model simulations exhibit approximately two times more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite observations since 1979. The causes of this difference are not fully understood and are poorly quantified. Here, we apply machine learning to relate the patterns of surface-temperature change to the forced and unforced components of tropical tropospheric warming. This approach allows us to disentangle the forced and unforced change in the model-simulated temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT). In applying the climate-model-trained machine-learning framework to observations, we estimate that external forcing has produced a tropical TMT trend of 0.25 ± 0.08 K⋅decade −1 between 1979 and 2014, but internal variability has offset this warming by 0.07 ± 0.07 K⋅decade −1 . Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble, we also find that a discontinuity in the variability of prescribed biomass-burning aerosol emissions artificially enhances simulated tropical TMT change by 0.04 K⋅decade −1 . The magnitude of this aerosol-forcing bias will vary across climate models, but since the latest generation of climate models all use the same emissions dataset, the bias may systematically enhance climate-model trends over the satellite era. Our results indicate that internal variability and forcing uncertainties largely explain differences in satellite-versus-model warming and are important considerations when evaluating climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Defying eternal inflation in warm inflation with a negative running

It was pointed out previously [1] that a sufficiently negative running of the spectral index of curvature perturbations from (ordinary i.e. cold) inflation is able to prevent eternal inflation from ever occurring. Here, we reevaluate those original results, but in the context of warm inflation, in which a substantial radiation component (produced by the inflation) exists throughout the inflationary period. We demonstrate that the same general requirements found in the context of ordinary (cold) inflation also hold true in warm inflation; indeed an even tinier amount of negative running is sufficient to prevent eternal inflation. This is particularly pertinent, as models featuring negative running are more generic in warm inflation scenarios. Finally, the condition for the existence of eternal inflation in cold inflation — that the curvature perturbation amplitude exceed unity on superhorizon scales — becomes more restrictive in the case of warm inflation. The curvature perturbations must be even larger, i.e. even farther out on the potential, away from the part of the potential where observables, e.g. in the Cosmic Microwave Background, are produced.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Warming and disturbance alter soil microbiome diversity and function in a northern forest ecotone

ABSTRACT The response to global change by soil microbes is set to affect important ecosystem processes. These impacts could be most immediate in transitional zones, such as the temperate-boreal forest ecotone, yet previous work in these forests has primarily focused on specific subsets of microbial taxa. Here, we examined how bacterial and fungal communities respond to simulated above- and below-ground warming under realistic field conditions in closed and open canopy treatments in Minnesota, USA. Our results show that warming and canopy disturbance shifted bacterial and fungal community structure as dominant bacterial and fungal groups differed in the direction and intensity of their responses. Ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic fungal communities with greater connectivity (higher prevalence of strongly interconnected taxa based on pairwise co-occurrence relationships) were more resistant to compositional change. Warming effects on soil enzymes involved in the hydrolytic and oxidative liberation of carbon from plant cell walls and nutrients from organic matter were most strongly linked to fungal community responses, although community structure–function relationships differed between fungal guilds. Collectively, these findings indicate that warming and disturbance will influence the composition and function of microbial communities in the temperate-boreal ecotone, and fungal responses are particularly important to understand for predicting future ecosystem functioning.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on the scalar-field potential in warm inflation

In this work, we quantify the degree of fine-tuning required to achieve an observationally viable period of inflation in the strongly dissipative regime of warm inflation. The “fine-tuning” parameter λ is taken to be the ratio of the change in the height of the potential Δ V to the change in the scalar field (ΔΦ) 4 , i.e., the width of the potential, and therefore measures the requisite degree of flatness in the potential. The best motivated warm inflationary scenarios involve a dissipation rate of the kind Γ ∝ T c with c ≥ 0 , and for all such cases, the bounds on λ are tighter than those for standard cold inflation by at least 3 orders of magnitude. In other words, these models require an even flatter potential than standard inflation. On the other hand for the case of warm inflation with c < 0, we find that in a strongly dissipative regime the bound on λ can significantly weaken with respect to cold inflation. Thus, if a warm inflation model can be constructed in a strongly dissipative, negatively temperature-dependent regime, it accommodates steeper potentials otherwise ruled out in standard inflation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unraveling the intrinsic atomic physics behind x-ray absorption line shifts in warm dense silicon plasmas

Here, we present a novel free-energy density functional theory (DFT)-based methodology for optical property calculations of warm dense matter to cover a wide range of thermodynamic conditions and photon energies including the entire x-ray range. It uses Mermin–Kohn–Sham density functional theory with exchange-correlation (XC) thermal effects taken into account via a fully temperature dependent generalized gradient approximation XC functional. The methodology incorporates a combination of the ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) snapshotted Kubo–Greenwood optic data with a single-atom in simulation cell calculations to close the photon energy gap between the L and K edges and extend the K-edge tail toward many-keV photon energies. This gap arises in the standard scheme due to a prohibitively large number of bands required for the Kubo–Greenwood calculations with AIMD snapshots. Kubo–Greenwood data on snapshots provide an accurate description of optic properties at low photon frequencies slightly beyond the L-edge and x-ray absorption near edges structure (XANES) spectra, while data from periodic calculations with single atoms cover the tail regions beyond the edges. To demonstrate its applicability to mid-Z materials where the standard DFT-based approach is not computationally feasible, we have applied it to opacity calculations of warm dense silicon plasmas. These first-principles calculations revealed a very interesting phenomon of red-to-blue shift in K–L (1s → 2p) and K-edge absorptions along both isotherm and isochore, which are absent in most continuum-lowering models of traditional plasma physics. This new physics phenomenon can be attributed to the underlying competition between the screening of deeply bound core electrons and the screening of outer-shell electrons caused by warm-dense-plasma conditions. We further demonstrate that the ratio of 1s → 2p to the K-edge x-ray absorptions can be used to characterize warm-dense-plasma conditions. Eventually, based on our absorption calculations, we have established a first-principles opacity table (FPOT) for silicon in a wide range of material densities and temperatures.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mixotrophic microbes create carbon tipping points under warming

Mixotrophs are ubiquitous and integral to microbial food webs, but their impacts on the dynamics and functioning of broader ecosystems are largely unresolved. Here, we show that mixotrophy produces a unique type of food web module that exhibits unusual ecological dynamics, with surprising consequences for carbon flux under warming. We develop a generalizable model of a mixotrophic food web module that incorporates dynamic switching between phototrophy and phagotrophy to assess ecological dynamics and total system CO 2 flux. We find that warming switches mixotrophic systems between alternative stable carbon states—including a phototrophy-dominant carbon sink state, a phagotrophy-dominant carbon source state and cycling between these two. Moreover, warming always shifts this mixotrophic system from a carbon sink state to a carbon source state, but a coordinated increase in nutrients can erase early warning signals of this transition and expand hysteresis. This suggests that mixotrophs can generate critical carbon tipping points under warming that will be more abrupt and less reversible when combined with increased nutrient levels, having widespread implications for ecosystem functioning in the face of rapid global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lower soil moisture and deep soil temperatures in thermokarst features increase old soil carbon loss after 10 years of experimental permafrost warming

Almost half of the global terrestrial soil carbon (C) is stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost region, where air temperatures are increasing two times faster than the global average. As climate warms, permafrost thaws and soil organic matter becomes vulnerable to greater microbial decomposition. Long-term soil warming of ice-rich permafrost can result in thermokarst formation that creates variability in environmental conditions. Consequently, plant and microbial proportional contributions to ecosystem respiration may change in response to long-term soil warming. Natural abundance δ 13 C and Δ 14 C of aboveground and belowground plant material, and of young and old soil respiration were used to inform a mixing model to partition the contribution of each source to ecosystem respiration fluxes. We employed a hierarchical Bayesian approach that incorporated gross primary productivity and environmental drivers to constrain source contributions. We found that long-term experimental permafrost warming introduced a soil hydrology component that interacted with temperature to affect old soil C respiration. Old soil C loss was suppressed in plots with warmer deep soil temperatures because they tended to be wetter. When soil volumetric water content significantly decreased in 2018 relative to 2016 and 2017, the dominant respiration sources shifted from plant aboveground and young soil respiration to old soil respiration. The proportion of ecosystem respiration from old soil C accounted for up to 39% of ecosystem respiration and represented a 30-fold increase compared to the wet-year average. Our findings show that thermokarst formation may act to moderate microbial decomposition of old soil C when soil is highly saturated. However, when soil moisture decreases, a higher proportion of old soil C is vulnerable to decomposition and can become a large flux to the atmosphere. Furthermore, as permafrost systems continue to change with climate, we must understand the thresholds that may propel these systems from a C sink to a source.

permafrost↗
DOE OSTI2025

Host Species–Microbiome Interactions Contribute to Sphagnum Moss Growth Acclimation to Warming

Sphagnum moss is the dominant plant genus in northern peatlands responsible for long-term carbon accumulation. Sphagnum hosts diverse microbial communities (microbiomes), and its phytobiome (plant host + constituent microbiome + environment) plays a key role in nutrient acquisition along with carbon cycling. Climate change can modify the Sphagnum -associated microbiome, resulting in enhanced host growth and thermal acclimation as previously shown in warming experiments. However, the extent of microbiome benefits to the host and the influence of host–microbe specificity on Sphagnum thermal acclimation remain unclear. Here, we extracted Sphagnum microbiomes from five donor species of four peatland warming experiments across a latitudinal gradient and applied those microbiomes to three germ-free Sphagnum species grown across a range of temperatures in the laboratory. Using this experimental system, we test if Sphagnum 's growth response to warming depends on the donor and/or recipient host species, and we determine how the microbiome's growth conditions in the field affect Sphagnum host growth across a range of temperatures in the laboratory. After 4 weeks, we found that the highest growth rate of recipient Sphagnum was observed in treatments of matched host–microbiome pairs, with rates approximately 50% and 250% higher in comparison to maximum growth rates of non-matched host–microbiome pairs and germ-free Sphagnum , respectively. We also found that the maximum growth rate of host–microbiome pairs was reached when treatment temperatures were close to the microbiome's native temperatures. Our study shows that Sphagnum's growth acclimation to temperature is partially controlled by its constituent microbiome. Strong Sphagnum host–microbiome species specificity indicates the existence of underlying, unknown physiological mechanisms that may drive Sphagnum 's ability to acclimatize to elevated temperatures. Together with rapid acclimation of the microbiome to warming, these specific microbiome–plant associations have the potential to enhance peatland resilience in the face of climate change.

acclimation↗