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At least 217 records · Page 12

Minimum Hamiltonian ascent trajectory evaluation (MASTRE) program (update to automatic flight trajectory design, performance prediction, and vehicle sizing for support of shuttle and shuttle derived vehicles) users manual

Documentation for the User Interface Program for the Minimum Hamiltonian Ascent Trajectory Evaluation (MASTRE) is provided. The User Interface Program is a separate software package designed to ease the user input requirements when using the MASTRE Trajectory Program. This document supplements documentation on the MASTRE Program that consists of the MASTRE Engineering Manual and the MASTRE Programmers Guide. The User Interface Program provides a series of menus and tables using the VAX Screen Management Guideline (SMG) software. These menus and tables allow the user to modify the MASTRE Program input without the need for learning the various program dependent mnemonics. In addition, the User Interface Program allows the user to modify and/or review additional input Namelist and data files, to build and review command files, to formulate and calculate mass properties related data, and to have a plotting capability.

Lyons, J. T.↗

Human-Vehicle Interface for Semi-Autonomous Operation of Uninhabited Aero Vehicles

The robustness of autonomous robotic systems to unanticipated circumstances is typically insufficient for use in the field. The many skills of human user often fill this gap in robotic capability. To incorporate the human into the system, a useful interaction between man and machine must exist. This interaction should enable useful communication to be exchanged in a natural way between human and robot on a variety of levels. This report describes the current human-robot interaction for the Stanford HUMMINGBIRD autonomous helicopter. In particular, the report discusses the elements of the system that enable multiple levels of communication. An intelligent system agent manages the different inputs given to the helicopter. An advanced user interface gives the user and helicopter a method for exchanging useful information. Using this human-robot interaction, the HUMMINGBIRD has carried out various autonomous search, tracking, and retrieval missions.

Jones, Henry L.↗

Ceramic material suitable for repair of a space vehicle component in a microgravity and vacuum environment, method of making same, and method of repairing a space vehicle component

A precursor of a ceramic adhesive suitable for use in a vacuum, thermal, and microgravity environment. The precursor of the ceramic adhesive includes a silicon-based, preceramic polymer and at least one ceramic powder selected from the group consisting of aluminum oxide, aluminum nitride, boron carbide, boron oxide, boron nitride, hafnium boride, hafnium carbide, hafnium oxide, lithium aluminate, molybdenum silicide, niobium carbide, niobium nitride, silicon boride, silicon carbide, silicon oxide, silicon nitride, tin oxide, tantalum boride, tantalum carbide, tantalum oxide, tantalum nitride, titanium boride, titanium carbide, titanium oxide, titanium nitride, yttrium oxide, zirconium diboride, zirconium carbide, zirconium oxide, and zirconium silicate. Methods of forming the ceramic adhesive and of repairing a substrate in a vacuum and microgravity environment are also disclosed, as is a substrate repaired with the ceramic adhesive.

Riedell, James A.↗

Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Quantification for Vehicles with Different Size Classes and Powertrains

In order to accurately compare the costs of two vehicles, the total cost of ownership (TCO) should consist of all costs related to both purchasing and operating the vehicle. This TCO analysis builds on previous work to provide a comprehensive perspective of all relevant vehicle costs of ownership. In this report, we present what we believe to be the most comprehensive explicit financial analysis of the costs that will be incurred by a vehicle owner. This study considers vehicle cost and depreciation, financing, fuel costs, insurance costs, maintenance and repair costs, taxes and fees, and other operational costs to formulate a holistic total cost of ownership and operation of multiple different vehicles. For each of these cost parameters that together constitute a comprehensive TCO, extensive literature review and data analysis were performed to find representative values in order to build a holistic TCO for vehicles of all size classes. The light- and heavy-duty vehicles selected for analysis in this report are representative of those that are on the road today and expected to be available in the future. Important additive analyses in this study include systematic analysis of vehicle depreciation, in-depth examination of insurance premium costs, comprehensive maintenance and repair estimates, analysis of all relevant taxes and fees, and considerations of specific costs applicable to commercial vehicles. We find that cars depreciate faster than light trucks and that older plug-in electric vehicles have a greater depreciation rate than newer electric vehicles. Light-duty vehicle (LDV) insurance costs show comparable costs for different powertrains, and lower costs for larger size classes. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) insurance costs vary significantly by vocation. Electric and electrified powertrains have lower maintenance and repair costs than internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrains for all vehicle sizes, relative to vehicle price. MHDV maintenance and repair costs depend heavily on vocation and duty cycle. LDV taxes and fees are comparable across powertrain types and size classes, though marginally higher registration fees exist for alternative fuel vehicles. MHDV fees depend on the vocation, weight rating, and state. Many electric tractor trailers would be affected by additional battery weight, reducing the available payload capacity, and this cost can be substantial. Electric vehicle charging for commercial vehicles can be time-consuming; labor rates can cause this cost to dominate TCO. With improved knowledge of each of the cost components, we calculate a lifetime TCO for comparison across vehicles of different types and attributes. For a simulated small sport utility vehicle in 2025, modeled using Autonomie, the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) has the lowest cost, followed by the conventional ICE vehicle. For MHDV, TCO can be drastically different depending on the vocation. Long-haul vehicles typically have the lowest per-mile costs. Excluding labor costs, the class 4 delivery has a comparable TCO to the day cab. Vocational trucks, refuse trucks, and transit buses have a high per-mile cost of ownership due to maintenance and insurance. For all of these vehicles, the cost of operating the vehicle is heavily weighted by the labor of the driver, followed by the fuel costs. While the HEV begins as the lowest cost powertrain for passenger vehicles, fuel cells are forecast to reach cost parity by 2030 when hydrogen prices reach $\$ 5$/kg while battery electric vehicles (BEV) reach cost parity by 2035 at a battery cost of $\$ 98$ per usable kWh of capacity, with these two technologies being the lowest cost in 2050. For the class 8 day cab tractor, the HEV and ICE vehicle begin as the lowest cost powertrains, and the 250-mile BEV reduces in cost from the most expensive to the least expensive by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE EV Data Collection - Vehicle Data

Vehicle data consist of electric vehicle performance data collected directly from the vehicle during standard operations. Data were collected using onboard data loggers that were either installed by the project team or preinstalled by the original equipment manufacturer. Data recorded by the data loggers were made accessible via an online web portal or an application programming interface. Different data loggers were used (HEM, ViriCiti, and Geotab), and the method for each vehicle is defined in the vehicle attributes file. Some systems collected data on a “trip-level” basis, in which each row of a table represents a single trip (the period between a key-on and key-off event), whereas other data were collected on a per-day basis, in which each row represents a single day of operation. Data were collected over a range of data collection periods, depending on the project. Data have been anonymized by removing information or decreasing information resolution as necessary so that fleets are not identifiable. Due to the wide range of vehicle types represented and variation in data collection, data parameters and frequencies differ between vehicles and fleets The **Performance Data Daily/Trip Data Dictionaries** contain definitions for each available parameter associated with a vehicle’s operations, aggregated at either a daily or trip level. The parameters available will vary from vehicle to vehicle, but every possible parameter will be defined. The **Vehicle Attributes Data Dictionary** contains definitions for each available parameter associated with a vehicle’s physical and functional attributes and fleet context. The **Vehicle Attributes** table contains specific vehicle characteristics, coded to an anonymous Vehicle ID. This Vehicle ID can be used as a key between vehicle data and vehicle attribute tables. The **Vehicle Data** tables contain the data from each vehicle’s operations, aggregated at either a daily or trip level, coded to an anonymous Vehicle ID. This Vehicle ID can be used as a key between vehicle data and vehicle attribute tables. Data is being uploaded quarterly through 2023 and subject to change until the conclusion of the project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Collaborative Analysis Tool for Integrated Hypersonic Aerodynamics, Thermal Protection Systems, and RBCC Engine Performance for Single Stage to Orbit Vehicles

Presented is a computer-based tool that connects several disciplines that are needed in the complex and integrated design of high performance reusable single stage to orbit (SSTO) vehicles. Every system is linked to every other system, as is the case of SSTO vehicles with air breathing propulsion, which is currently being studied by NASA. An RBCC propulsion system integrates airbreathing and rocket propulsion into a single engine assembly enclosed within a cowl or duct. A typical RBCC propulsion system operates as a ducted rocket up to approximately Mach 3. Then there is a transition to a ramjet mode for supersonic-to-hypersonic acceleration. Around Mach 8 the engine transitions to a scramjet mode. During the ramjet and scramjet modes, the integral rockets operate as fuel injectors. Around Mach 10-12 (the actual value depends on vehicle and mission requirements), the inlet is physically closed and the engine transitions to an integral rocket mode for orbit insertion. A common feature of RBCC propelled vehicles is the high degree of integration between the propulsion system and airframe. At high speeds the vehicle forebody is fundamentally part of the engine inlet, providing a compression surface for air flowing into the engine. The compressed air is mixed with fuel and burned. The combusted mixture must be expanded to an area larger than the incoming stream to provide thrust. Since a conventional nozzle would be too large, the entire lower after body of the vehicle is used as an expansion surface. Because of the high external temperatures seen during atmospheric flight, the design of an airbreathing SSTO vehicle requires delicate tradeoffs between engine design, vehicle shape, and thermal protection system (TPS) sizing in order to produce an optimum system in terms of weight (and cost) and maximum performance. To adequately determine the performance of the engine/vehicle, the Hypersonic Flight Inlet Model (HYFIM) module was designed to interface with the RBCC engine model. HYFIM performs the aerodynamic analysis of forebodies and inlet characteristics of RBCC powered SSTO launch vehicles. HYFIM is applicable to the analysis of the ramjet/scramjet engine operations modes (Mach 3-12), and provides estimates of parameters such as air capture area, shock-on-lip Mach number, design Mach number, compression ratio, etc., based on a basic geometry routine for modeling axisymmetric cones, 2-D wedge geometries. HYFIM also estimates the variation of shock layer properties normal to the forebody surface. The thermal protection system (TPS) is directly linked to determination of the vehicle moldline and the shaping of the trajectory. Thermal protection systems to maintain the structural integrity of the vehicle must be able to mitigate the heat transfer to the structure and be lightweight. Herein lies the interdependency, in that as the vehicle's speed increases, the TPS requirements are increased. And as TPS masses increase the effect on the propulsion system and all other systems is compounded. The need to analyze vehicle forebody and engine inlet is critical to be able to design the RBCC vehicle. To adequately determine insulation masses for an RBCC vehicle, the hypersonic aerodynamic environment and aeroheating loads must be calculated and the TPS thicknesses must be calculated for the entire vehicle. To accomplish this an ascent or reentry trajectory is obtained using the computer code Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST). The trajectory is then used to calculate the convective heat rates on several locations on the vehicles using the Miniature Version of the JA70 Aerodynamic Heating Computer Program (MINIVER). Once the heat rates are defined for each body point on the vehicle, then insulation thicknesses that are required to maintain the vehicle within structural limits are calculated using Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (SINDA) models. If the TPS masses are too heavy for the performance of the vehicle the process may be repeated altering the trajectory or some other input to reduce the TPS mass. E-PSURBCC is an "engine performance" model and requires the specification of inlet air static temperature and pressure as well as Mach number (which it pulls from the HYFIM and POST trajectory files), and calculates the corresponding stagnation properties. The engine air flow path geometry includes inlet, a constant area section where the rocket is positioned, a subsonic diffuser, a constant area afterburner, and either a converging nozzle or a converging-diverging nozzle. The current capabilities of E-PSURBCC ejector and ramjet mode treatment indicated that various complex flow phenomena including multiple choking and internal shocks can occur for combinations of geometry/flow conditions. For a given input deck defining geometry/flow conditions, the program first goes through a series of checks to establish whether the input parameters are sound in terms of a solution path. If the vehicle/engine performance fails mission goals, the engineer is able to collaboratively alter the vehicle moldline to change aerodynamics, or trajectory, or some other input to achieve orbit. The problem described is an example of the need for collaborative design and analysis. RECIPE is a cross-platform application capable of hosting a number of engineers and designers across the Internet for distributed and collaborative engineering environments. Such integrated system design environments allow for collaborative team design analysis for performing individual or reduced team studies. To facilitate the larger number of potential runs that may need to be made, RECIPE connects the computer codes that calculate the trajectory data, aerodynamic data based on vehicle geometry, heat rate data, TPS masses, and vehicle and engine performance, so that the output from each tool is easily transferred to the model input files that need it.

Stanley, Thomas Troy↗

Profile Images and Annotations for Vehicle Re-identification Algorithms (PRIMAVERA)

This dataset contains 636,246 profile images of vehicles representing 13,963 unique vehicles. The data was collected by a set of roadside sensors over the course of three years. Each time a vehicle passed by one of the sensors, a series of images was collected. The images were processed to detect and localize each vehicle, and a license plate reader collocated with the sensor was used to provide a unique ID for the vehicle. Actual license plate numbers have been obfuscated by replacing with an arbitrary numerical ID for each vehicle. After localizing the vehicle in each image, the original RGB image was rotated, scaled, and shifted to produce a new RGB image of size 234x234 pixels such that the outermost two wheels are located at predetermined pixel locations in the image. In this way, all vehicle images are aligned to one another. This registration process occasionally results in a portion of certain vehicles being cutoff at the edges of the image. The dataset has been partitioned into two sets called training and validation. The two partitions no common vehicles, i.e., a vehicle present in one partition is guaranteed not to be present in the other. In this way, an algorithm can be validated against a set of new vehicles that were not seen during the training process. The training set contains 543,926 images from 64,440 vehicle passes representing 11,918 unique vehicles, while the validation set contains 92,320 images from 10,991 vehicle passes representing 2,045 unique vehicles. Vehicle images are organized by directories corresponding to unique vehicles. The file naming scheme is as follows: veh_{vehID}_tr_{passID}_{frameID}_{elevation}_{timeofday}.jpg where {vehID} is the vehicle ID (unique across the entire dataset), {passID} is an identifier for each tracked vehicle pass (unique across the entire dataset), {frameID} is the index of the frame within the given vehicle pass starting at 0, {elevation} is a two-letter string indicating whether the sensor was elevated (el) or at ground-level (gl), and {timeofday} is a two-letter string indicating whether the image was captured during daytime (dt) or nighttime (nt).

image↗

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

CFD 2030 Grand Challenge: CFD-in-the-Loop Monte Carlo Flight Simulation for Space Vehicle Design

Flight qualification of space vehicles is markedly different from those typically employed for aircraft. The concept of an extensive flight test campaign for a space vehicle does not exist, and vehicle designers must look to alternative techniques for demonstrating robust and reliable performance of their vehicles prior to operational flight. A space vehicle may undergo only a handful of flight tests in its development cycle, with each flight representing a drastically different flight phase or flight configuration. For instance, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle and Orion spacecraft will only see a total of four flight demonstrations before flying a crew on its first operational mission, and each flight demonstrates a unique vehicle configuration and/or set of flight conditions. The SLS will be flown only one time before it becomes operational (Artemis 1). The Orion spacecraft Crew Module (CM) will have been tested twice, once on a Delta IV launch vehicle (Exploration Flight Test 1) and once as a fully integrated system with the SLS launch vehicle (Artemis 1). The Orion Launch abort system will have been tested twice, once in a pad abort scenario (Pad Abort 1) and once in an inflight abort scenario (Ascent Abort 2) on a modified Peacekeeper booster. Both of these latter tests involve only a boiler plate CM, not a functional Orion spacecraft. Thus, unlike aircraft, there is very little opportunity for engineers to assess and evaluate their preflight predictions. Instead, space vehicle designers rely on Monte Carlo flight simulations with detailed dispersions of predicted nominal flight behavior to determine how robust their design is to errors and uncertainties in the flight conditions their vehicle may encounter. These Monte Carlo analyses entail thousands of trajectory simulations to demonstrate that the vehicle can meet design requirements at a specified level of reliability. From an aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics perspective, these trajectory simulations are fueled by an extensive aerodynamic database that covers the complete range of expected flight conditions, vehicle configurations, and flight attitudes expected in a given mission. Today, these databases amount to a table of engineering parameters that can be quickly interrogated by the trajectory simulator. The aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic databases are assembled via a series of ground tests, empirical and analytical analysis, physics-based computational analysis, applicable past flight performance data, and in some cases, engineering judgment. These databases generally take years to assemble for a new space vehicle system and in the case of SLS/Orion, over a decade of test and analysis have been expended to develop the extensive databases required to cover the myriad of configurations and potential flight conditions required for the system. Recently, it has been proposed that Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and computing capability may be reaching a point where it is foreseeable that CFD could be integrated directly into the production trajectory simulation tools used to design NASA’s space vehicles. To demonstrate this, NASA has embarked on two demonstrations of this type of capability, one where six degree of freedom flight trajectory simulation equations are embedded in an existing CFD solver and another where a production CFD solver is loosely coupled with a production trajectory simulation tool. These efforts represent an initial demonstration of a future approach to flight trajectory simulation, but they are a far cry from the capability required to perform a full-up CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation. Therefore, this represents a viable grand challenge for computational methods addressing space vehicle design and development. The final paper/presentation will discuss the many hurdles, beyond simply raw computational power, to realizing this grand challenge and how they map directly to the CFD Vision 2030 ojectives. Among these are the wide range of flight conditions, including accelerating/decelerating flight, encountered by a space vehicle during launch and/or entry. The vehicle can also encounter numerous configuration changes, some of which can be quite drastic, during the course of its flight, so robust, automated geometry modeling, grid generation, and adaptation will play a huge role in reaching this goal. Multiply this by 1000’s of trajectory simulations occurring simultaneously in a given Monte Carlo analysis, and the problem readily scales to absorb virtually any size of supercomputer envisioned today. The concept of CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation poses a formidable challenge for emerging and future computing systems, and it has the potential to shave years off the development cycle for aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance predictions as compared to today’s space vehicle design approach.

CFD 2030↗

Conceptual Design of a Tiltduct Reference Vehicle for Urban Air Mobility

NASA is establishing a fleet of conceptual air vehicle designs to support research and development for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). This fleet of vehicles will enable examination of the sensitivity of UAM vehicle designs to technology assumptions, identify key research and development needs for UAM aircraft, and provide the UAM community with reference vehicles that are publicly available and based upon known assumptions. To date, five six-passenger reference vehicles have been published: a quadrotor, a side-by-side, a lift-plus-cruise, a single-main-rotor helicopter, and a tiltwing. To increase the breadth of vehicle technologies encapsulated in the fleet of NASA UAM reference vehicles, this paper establishes a tiltduct vehicle as an addition to the fleet. The fleet will continue to evolve as future analyses and trade studies are performed. The tiltduct reference vehicle has six tilting ducted proprotors. This paper describes the initial configuration downselection; discusses ducted proprotor design rules of thumb as they applied to the conceptual design of the reference vehicle; describes the vehicle sizing, trade studies, and tuning of models performed; and finally, compares the resulting tiltduct vehicle against the other six-passenger NASA UAM reference vehicles. The high-level analyses performed for this study did not indicate significant differences in performance between the tiltduct and tiltwing reference vehicles, and so vehicle performance alone may not be a key driver in the selection of a tiltduct vehicle over a tiltwing vehicle. However, if ducts are found to have significant acoustical benefits, then acoustical priorities may provide a compelling reason to incorporate ducted proprotors. One significant limitation of the design presented in this paper is that the ducted proprotor performance was tuned based upon performance characteristics observed during historical tests with disk loadings (defined as thrust divided by proprotor disk area) of 125-250 lb/ft^2. The tiltduct vehicle designed in this study has a disk loading of 30 lb/ft^2, to be more representative of UAM vehicles; further studies to understand performance of ducted proprotors at representative disk loadings are warranted.

Tiltduct↗

Conceptual Design of a Tiltduct Reference Vehicle for Urban Air Mobility

NASA is establishing a fleet of conceptual air vehicle designs to support research and development for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). This fleet of vehicles will enable examination of the sensitivity of UAM vehicle designs to technology assumptions, identify key research and development needs for UAM aircraft, and provide the UAM community with reference vehicles that are publicly available and based upon known assumptions. To date, five six-passenger UAM reference vehicles have been published: a single-main-rotor helicopter, a side-by-side helicopter, a quadrotor, a lift-plus-cruise, and a tiltwing. To increase the breadth of vehicle technologies encapsulated in the fleet of NASA UAM reference vehicles, this paper establishes a tiltduct vehicle as an addition to the fleet. The fleet will continue to evolve as future analyses and trade studies are performed. The tiltduct UAM reference vehicle has six tilting ducted proprotors. This paper describes the initial configuration downselection; discusses ducted proprotor design rules of thumb as they applied to the conceptual design of the reference vehicle; describes the vehicle sizing, trade studies, and tuning of models performed; and finally, compares the resulting tiltduct vehicle against the other six-passenger NASA UAM reference vehicles. The high-level analyses performed for this study did not indicate significant differences in performance between the tiltduct and tiltwing reference vehicles, and so vehicle performance alone may not be a key driver in the selection of a tiltduct vehicle over a tiltwing vehicle. However, if ducts are found to have significant acoustical benefits, then acoustical priorities may provide a compelling reason to incorporate ducted proprotors. One significant limitation of the design presented in this paper is that the ducted proprotor performance was tuned based upon performance characteristics observed during historical tests with disk loadings (defined as thrust divided by proprotor disk area) of 125-250 lb/ft$^2$. The tiltduct vehicle designed in this study has a disk loading of 30 lb/ft$^2$, to be more representative of UAM vehicles; further studies to understand performance of ducted proprotors at representative disk loadings are warranted.

Tiltduct↗

Projecting California Light-Duty Vehicle Attributes (2019-2035)

In this report, we estimated a set of future vehicle attribute scenarios for new light-duty vehicles for the California market using the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT). ADOPT starts simulations with all existing vehicle makes and models and endogenously creates new vehicle models over time based on assumed technology improvements and market conditions. For this study, we simulated four scenarios with varied technology, policy, and electric vehicle infrastructure assumptions. We aggregated simulation results into up to 30 vehicle classes (covering size and price classifications) for each powertrain, for six powertrains. We simulated model years 2019 to 2035. We present results for four vehicle attributes: vehicle acceleration, fuel economy (including electric and gasoline for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs]), vehicle range, and vehicle purchase price. We also present results showing the estimated number of vehicle models available in each vehicle class over time. In the Mid scenario, which contains conditions between our most conservative and most optimistic assumptions for emerging electric and hydrogen technologies, we observe improvements in acceleration, range (for battery-electric vehicles [BEVs]), and vehicle purchase price for electric and hydrogen powertrains. In some cases, we project that consumer preferences lead to trade-offs between vehicle attributes, such as reduced fuel economy in exchange for improved acceleration. Conventional vehicles show modest improvements in fuel economy in these scenarios due to the high numbers of BEV and PHEV sales, which reduce the improvements required in conventional vehicles to meet fleet fuel economy standards. In scenarios with advanced technology assumptions (including reduced battery price and improved energy density), we observe further improvements in BEV range and price relative to the improvements in the Mid scenario.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗