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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatological analysis of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological extremes in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Abstract Research efforts related to landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) and their hydrological impacts have focused mostly on the continental or regional scales, whereas many coastal management and infrastructure decisions are made at much finer spatial scales. In this context, this study aims to provide local-scale understandings of the climatological characteristics and hydrological impacts of TCs (from 1950 to 2019) over the Mid-Atlantic region defined as the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and Susquehanna River Basin (SRB). The climatological analysis is based on analyzing long-term, spatially distributed observational datasets of hurricane tracks, precipitation, and streamflows. Results suggest that, despite limited contribution of TCs to regional precipitation (<9%), TC is the dominant driver for extreme floods in the southern part of DRB (e.g. tributaries of the Christina River and lower Schuylkill River) and the southwestern portions of SRB (e.g. tributaries of the Lower Susquehanna and Junita River), where TC’s effect on drought alleviation is also comparatively higher. At the basin level, SRB is more susceptible to flooding associated with TCs and prone to drought relative to DRB; however, strong spatial variability of TC’s impact on hydrological extremes is observed within and across the basins. While the TC effect on flood/drought is negligible for the high-elevation, northern part of the region, TC increases the magnitude of the 100 year flood by up to 19.6% in DRB and 53.0% in SRB; the duration of short-term extreme hydrological drought is reduced by TC by up to 25.0% in SRB and 24.7% in DRB, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Response to Surface Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations With Uniform Thermal Forcing

While many modeling studies have attempted to estimate how tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is impacted by climate change, the multitude of analysis techniques and methodologies have resulted in varying conclusions. Simplified models may be able to help overcome this problem. Radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) model simulations have been used in various configurations to study fundamental aspects of Earth's climate. While many RCE modeling studies have focused on TC genesis, intensification, and size, limited work has been done using RCE to study TC precipitation. Here, in this study, the response of TC precipitation to sea surface temperature (SST) change is analyzed in global Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) aquaplanet simulations run with Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project protocols, with the addition of planetary rotation. We expect that the insight gained about how TC precipitation responds to SST warming will help predict how TCs in the real world respond to climate change. In the CAM RCE simulations, the warmer SST simulations have less TCs on average, but the TCs tend to be larger in outer size and more intense. As simulation SST increases, more extreme precipitation rates occur within TCs, and more of the TC precipitation comes from these extreme rates. For extreme (99th percentile) TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity increases dominate the 8.6% per K increase, while TC outer size changes have little impact. For accumulated TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity contributions are still the majority, but TC outer size changes also contribute to the 6.6% per K increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

The first measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within and around tropical cyclones were made with the Desert Research Institute (DRI) CCN spectrometer (Hudson 1909) from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft throughout the 2001 season. Two penetrations of the closed eye of Hurricane Erin off the northeast US coast on Sept. 10 showed concentrations consistently well in excess of 1000 per cubic cm at approximately 1.4% supersaturation. Simultaneous condensation nuclei (CN--total particle) concentrations were consistently well in excess of 2000 per cubic cm throughout these closed eye penetrations. These within eye measurements at 4 km altitude for exceeded CCN and CN measurements just outside of the storm at similar altitudes--300 and 600 per cubic cm respectively. These CCN and CN concentrations within this closed eye were far above concentrations in maritime air masses; they are characteristic of continental or polluted air masses. Although there was a possibility that Saharan duct may have gotten into this storm these sub tenth micrometer particles are much too small and much too numerous to be dust. Such high concentrations may have originated from European air pollution, which may have been transported by similar airflow patterns to those that carry Saharan dust across the Atlantic. These high concentrations may be a manifestation of descending air that brings higher concentrations that are often characteristic of the upper troposphere (Clarke and Kapustin 2002). Later in the month measurements in Humberto showed highly variable CCN and CN concentrations that ranged from lots than 5 per cubic cm to more than 1000 per Cubic cm over km scale distances within and around the open eye of this tropical storm/hurricane. These very low concentrations suggest strong cloud scavenging.

Hudson, J. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

An oceanic pathway for Madden–Julian Oscillation influence on Maritime Continent Tropical Cyclones

While the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been shown to affect tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide through its modulation of large-scale circulation in the atmosphere, little or no role for the ocean has been identified to date in this influence of MJO on TCs. Using observations and numerical model simulations, we demonstrate that MJO events substantially impact TCs over the Maritime Continent (MC) region through an oceanic pathway. While propagating across the MC region, MJO events cause significant sea surface cooling with an area-averaged value of about 0.35 ± 0.12 °C. Hence, TCs over the MC region immediately following the passage of MJO events encounter considerably cooler sea surface temperatures. Consequently, the enthalpy fluxes under the storms are reduced and the intensification rates decrease by more than 50% on average. These results highlight an important role played by the ocean in facilitating MJO-induced sub-seasonal variability in TC activity over the MC region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Estimating tropical cyclone outer surface winds from satellite microwave data

Warm temperature anomalies over tropical cyclones are sensed by the 55.45 GHz channel of the Nimbus 6 Scanning Microwave Spectrometer. Radial brightness temperature gradients are related to radial surface pressure gradients through the hydrostatic and radiative transfer equations. Surface wind speeds outside of the radius of maximum wind are calculated from the pressure gradients and compared with observations.

Kidder, S. Q.↗
NASA NTRS2014

ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

simulation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics and trends of Atlantic tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from African easterly waves

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to develop from African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagate across North Africa and out over the Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between AEWs and TCs has been the subject of numerous previous studies. There are, however, many Atlantic TCs that do not have AEW origins. In this study, we provide a novel analysis of the characteristics and trends of Atlantic TCs both with and without AEW origins using 43 years of observational and reanalysis data. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with and without AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2022, and ran objective tracking algorithms on reanalysis data to identify the AEWs and TCs during this time period. We found statistically significant differences in the characteristics and environments of TCs with and without AEW origins. TCs with AEW origins are stronger and costlier, experience more favorable environmental conditions, and are more likely to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean when compared to TCs without AEW origins. Additionally, the 43‐year increasing trend in Atlantic TC activity is primarily driven by an increase in TCs with AEW origins that is associated with increasing AEW frequency and strength, with anthropogenic aerosols potentially driving this trend. In contrast, we found no trend in TCs without AEW origins.

Bercos‐Hickey, Emily↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering

Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in Four Decades of Near‐CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40‐year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6‐hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture‐related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short‐term intensity variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity

Abstract The eastern North Pacific (ENP) has the highest density of tropical cyclones (TCs) on earth, and yet the controls on TCs, from individual events to seasonal totals, remain poorly understood. One effect that has not been fully considered is the unique geography of the Central American mountains. Although observational studies suggest these mountains can readily fuel individual TCs through dynamical processes, here we show that these mountains indeed play the opposite role on the seasonal timescale, hindering seasonal ENP TC activity by up to 35%. We found that these mountains significantly interrupt the abundant moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea to the ENP, limiting deep convection over the open ocean area where TCs preferentially occur. This study advances our fundamental understanding of ENP TC genesis mechanisms across the weather-to-climate timescales, and also highlights the importance of topography representation in improving the ENP regional climate simulations, as well as TC seasonal predictions and future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating Lightning Behavior in Rapidly Intensifying Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Lightning is a useful tool in forecasting and understanding the behavior of tropical cyclones (TCs). The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-16 geostationary satellite measures a multitude of lightning parameters, such as flash extent density (FED), average flash area (AFA) and optical energy for most of North America, South America, and the Pacific Ocean. GLM has brought about an era of spaceborne measurements to track storms many miles off the coasts and has allowed for the study of lightning throughout a TCs entire lifespan. FED has been found to be indicative of strength and intensification in TCs, but optical energy is a relatively new parameter that has not been studied intensively. This presentation analyzes the relationship between rapid intensification (RI) and GLM optical energy, AFA, and FED in Hurricanes Florence (2018) and Laura (2020). Using a 24-hour time interval in which each storm underwent RI, optical energy was analyzed from the innermost 100 kilometers of the eye and then was averaged for each minute to determine if there was a relationship between optical energy, AFA, FED, and intensification. Optical energy, FED, and AFA spiked just before RI began and then fell as the storms intensified more rapidly. These parameters increased again as intensification slowed slightly, while the optical energy peaks much lower in Hurricane Laura and much higher in Hurricane Florence. While these results show a pattern in lightning in these two TCs, further investigation of parameters like updraft strength and charge separation from microwave imagery during these secondary peaks in which optical energy behaves differently than the first peak may provide further insight as to the behavior of these TCs during RI.

Kiahna Mollette↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Relating Lightning Flash Size and Energy to Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity Change

The number and location of lightning flashes within tropical cyclones (TCs) has proven to be a useful predictor of TC intensity change. Generally, a large number of lightning flashes located within the radius of maximum wind indicates a convective structure favorable for intensification. However, weakening TCs can also exhibit numerous lightning flashes, and rapid intensification can occur in the absence of inner-core lightning. It is thus difficult to interpret what the presence or absence of inner-core lightning might mean for a TC’s future evolution. The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) offers a new capability to observe not only the number and location of lightning flashes, but also the size and optical energy of those flashes. This presentation describes the application of these new metrics to further understand the relationship between lightning and TC structural and intensity evolution. Evidence is presented that flash size and optical energy reveal more about the convective and kinematic structures relevant to intensity change than an analysis of lightning flash count and location alone. We hypothesize that large, energetic lightning flashes are generated when the TC secondary circulation is strongest, an environment which favors increased generation of ice particles in the eyewall updraft and larger charge separation through outward advection of ice in the upper-level outflow. Conversely, smaller, lower-energy lightning flashes tend to occur in more localized turbulent updrafts, which can be forced by a variety of processes – some of which act to weaken the storm. These hypotheses are supported by numerical simulations of TC convection.

Patrick Duran↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diurnal MCSs Precede the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Mora (2017): The Role of Convectively Forced Gravity Waves

In this work, a novel high-resolution regional reanalysis is used to investigate the mesoscale processes that preceded the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Mora (2017). Both satellite observations and the regional reanalysis show early morning mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) persistently initiated and organized in the downshear quadrant of the preexisting tropical disturbance a few days prior to the genesis of TC Mora. The diurnal MCSs gradually enhanced the meso-α-scale vortex near the center of the preexisting tropical disturbance through vortex stretching, providing a vorticity-rich and moist environment for the following burst of deep convection and enhancement of the meso-β-scale vortex. The regional reanalysis shows that the gravity waves that radiated from afternoon convection over the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal might play an important role in modulating the diurnal cycle of pregenesis MCSs. The diurnal convectively forced gravity waves increased the tropospheric stability, reduced the column saturation fraction, and suppressed deep convection within the preexisting tropical disturbance from noon to evening. A similar quasi-diurnal cycle of organized deep convection prior to TC genesis has also been observed over other basins. However, modeling studies are needed to conclusively demonstrate the relationships between the gravity waves and pregenesis diurnal MCSs. Also, whether diurnal gravity waves play a similar role in modulating the pregenesis deep convection in other TCs is worth future investigations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗