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NASA NTRS2009

Trends in MODIS Geolocation Error Analysis

Data from the two MODIS instruments have been accurately geolocated (Earth located) to enable retrieval of global geophysical parameters. The authors describe the approach used to geolocate with sub-pixel accuracy over nine years of data from M0DIS on NASA's E0S Terra spacecraft and seven years of data from MODIS on the Aqua spacecraft. The approach uses a geometric model of the MODIS instruments, accurate navigation (orbit and attitude) data and an accurate Earth terrain model to compute the location of each MODIS pixel. The error analysis approach automatically matches MODIS imagery with a global set of over 1,000 ground control points from the finer-resolution Landsat satellite to measure static biases and trends in the MO0lS geometric model parameters. Both within orbit and yearly thermally induced cyclic variations in the pointing have been found as well as a general long-term trend.

Wolfe, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Estimating Uncertainties in the Multi-Instrument SBUV Profile Ozone Merged Data Set

The MOD data set is uniquely qualified for use in long-term ozone analysis because of its long record, high spatial coverage, and consistent instrument design and algorithm. The estimated MOD uncertainty term significantly increases the uncertainty over the statistical error alone. Trends in the post-2000 period are generally positive in the upper stratosphere, but only significant at 1-1.6 hPa. Remaining uncertainties not yet included in the Monte Carlo model are Smoothing Error ( 1 from 10 to 1 hPa) Relative calibration uncertainty between N11 and N17Seasonal cycle differences between SBUV records.

Uncertainties↗

NASA NTRS1988

Toward an improved global network for determination of tropospheric ozone climatology and trends

Current data on ozone variability on daily, monthly, annual, and interannual time scales were used for a standard trend-prediction analysis. Using the results of this analysis, together with a quantitative theory that defines the 'effectively sampled region' for an observing station, a definition was developed for a global network capable of determining ozone climatology and ozone trends with uncertainties not above 1 percent per year at the 95 percent confidence level. The definition indicates a need for at least a doubling of the present number of stations; the areas where more stations are most needed include the oceans, most of Asia, Africa, and South America. It is pointed out that differential absorption lidar ozone instruments have the potential for far more frequent measurements of ozone vertical profiles and, hence, potentially more accurate climatology and trend determinations than the ozonesondes; however, the differential-absorption lidar ozone measurements may produce a biased data set above the cloud base.

Prinn, Ronald G.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends, 1979-2006

Analysis of Arctic sea ice extents derived from satellite passive-microwave data for the 28 years, 1979-2006 yields an overall negative trend of -45,100 +/- 4,600 km2/yr (-3.7 +/- 0.4%/decade) in the yearly averages, with negative ice-extent trends also occurring for each of the four seasons and each of the 12 months. For the yearly averages the largest decreases occur in the Kara and Barents Seas and the Arctic Ocean, with linear least squares slopes of -10,600 +/- 2,800 km2/yr (-7.4 +/- 2.0%/decade) and -10,100 +/- 2,200 km2/yr (-1.5 +/- 0.3%/decade), respectively, followed by Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, with a slope of -8,000 +/- 2,000 km2/yr) -9.0 +/- 2.3%/decade), the Greenland Sea, with a slope of -7,000 +/- 1,400 km2/yr (-9.3 +/- 1.9%/decade), and Hudson Bay, with a slope of -4,500 +/- 900 km2/yr (-5.3 +/- 1.1%/decade). These are all statistically significant decreases at a 99% confidence level. The Seas of Okhotsk and Japan also have a statistically significant ice decrease, although at a 95% confidence level, and the three remaining regions, the Bering Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Gulf of St. Lawrence, have negative slopes that are not statistically significant. The 28-year trends in ice areas for the Northern Hemisphere total are also statistically significant and negative in each season, each month, and for the yearly averages.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Using Maximal Isometric Force to Determine the Optimal Load for Measuring Dynamic Muscle Power

Maximal power output occurs when subjects perform ballistic exercises using loads of ~30-50% of one-repetition maximum (1-RM). However, performing 1-RM testing prior to power measurement requires considerable time, especially when testing involves multiple exercises. Maximal isometric force (MIF), which requires substantially less time to measure than 1-RM, might be an acceptable alternative for determining the optimal load for power testing. PURPOSE: To determine the optimal load based on MIF for maximizing dynamic power output during leg press and bench press exercises. METHODS: Twenty healthy volunteers (12 men and 8 women; mean +/- SD age: 31+/-6 y; body mass: 72 +/- 15 kg) performed isometric leg press and bench press movements, during which MIF was measured using force plates. Subsequently, subjects performed ballistic leg press and bench press exercises using loads corresponding to 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, and 60% of MIF presented in randomized order. Maximal instantaneous power was calculated during the ballistic exercise tests using force plates and position transducers. Repeated-measures ANOVA and Fisher LSD post hoc tests were used to determine the load(s) that elicited maximal power output. RESULTS: For the leg press power test, six subjects were unable to be tested at 20% and 30% MIF because these loads were less than the lightest possible load (i.e., the weight of the unloaded leg press sled assembly [31.4 kg]). For the bench press power test, five subjects were unable to be tested at 20% MIF because these loads were less than the weight of the unloaded aluminum bar (i.e., 11.4 kg). Therefore, these loads were excluded from analysis. A trend (p = 0.07) for a main effect of load existed for the leg press exercise, indicating that the 40% MIF load tended to elicit greater power output than the 60% MIF load (effect size = 0.38). A significant (p . 0.05) main effect of load existed for the bench press exercise; post hoc analysis indicated that the effect of load on power output was: 30% > 40% > 50% = 60%. CONCLUSION: Loads of 40% and 30% of MIF elicit maximal power output during dynamic leg presses and bench presses, respectively. These findings are similar to those obtained when loading is based on 1-RM.

Spiering, Barry A.↗

NASA NTRS1974

An analysis of fracture trace patterns in areas of flat-lying sedimentary rocks for the detection of buried geologic structure

Two study areas in a cratonic platform underlain by flat-lying sedimentary rocks were analyzed to determine if a quantitative relationship exists between fracture trace patterns and their frequency distributions and subsurface structural closures which might contain petroleum. Fracture trace lengths and frequency (number of fracture traces per unit area) were analyzed by trend surface analysis and length frequency distributions also were compared to a standard Gaussian distribution. Composite rose diagrams of fracture traces were analyzed using a multivariate analysis method which grouped or clustered the rose diagrams and their respective areas on the basis of the behavior of the rays of the rose diagram. Analysis indicates that the lengths of fracture traces are log-normally distributed according to the mapping technique used. Fracture trace frequency appeared higher on the flanks of active structures and lower around passive reef structures. Fracture trace log-mean lengths were shorter over several types of structures, perhaps due to increased fracturing and subsequent erosion. Analysis of rose diagrams using a multivariate technique indicated lithology as the primary control for the lower grouping levels. Groupings at higher levels indicated that areas overlying active structures may be isolated from their neighbors by this technique while passive structures showed no differences which could be isolated.

Podwysocki, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Risk reduction methodologies and technologies for the Earth Observing System (EOS) Operations Center (EOC)

This paper will discuss proposed Flight Operations methodologies and technologies for the Earth Observing System (EOS) Operations Center (EOC), to reduce risks associated with the operation of complex multi-instrument spacecraft in a multi-spacecraft environment. The EOC goals are to obtain 100 percent science data capture and maintain 100 percent spacecraft health, for each EOS spacecraft. Operations risks to the spacecraft and data loss due to operator command error, mission degradation due to mis-identification of an anomalous trend in component performance or mis-management of resources, and total mission loss due to improper subsystem configuration or mis-identification of an anomalous condition. This paper discusses automation of routine Flight Operations Team (FOT) responsibilities, Expert systems for real-time non-nominal condition decision support, and Telemetry analysis systems for in-depth playback data analysis and trending.

Hudson, Richard K.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Human influence on climate↗

NASA NTRS1976

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 2: Identification of issues affecting intercity transportation

Papers on major issues and trends that affect the future of intercity transportation are presented. Specific areas covered include: political, social, technological, institutional, and economic mechanisms, the workings of which determine how future intercity transporation technologies will evolve and be put into service; the major issues of intercity transportation from the point of view of reform, including candidate transporation technologies; and technical analysis of trends affecting the evolution of intercity transportation technologies.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

Aerial wildfire operations are high risk and account for a large number of firefighter deaths. Increasing intensity of wildfires is driving a surge in aerial operations, while simultaneously there is growing interest in improving system safety and performance. In this work, wildfire aviation mishaps documented using the SAFECOM system are analyzed using a previously developed framework for hazard extraction and analysis of trends (HEAT). Hazards and specific failure modes are extracted from the narrative data in SAFECOM forms using natural language processing techniques. Metrics for each hazard are calculated, including frequency, rate, and severity. We examine whether these metrics change over time, and whether they are related to metadata, such as region and aircraft type. The results of the hazard analysis are presented in a risk matrix, identifying the highest and lowest risk hazards based on rate of occurrence and average severity. Results identify jumper operations hazards as high-risk, in addition to bucket drop failures, cargo let down failures, and severe weather as medium risk.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

machine learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing A Continuous Ozone Record Through the SAGE and Aura Missions With NASA Reanalysis Products

During the last quarter of the 20th century, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions were crucial in monitoring the loss and the subsequent recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Due to the employed solar occultation and self-calibration method, the SAGE monitors have produced stable data throughout the lifetime of each instrument. However, over ten years passed between the end of the SAGE II and SAGE III/M3M missions in 2005 and the launch of SAGE III/ISS instrument in 2017, leaving a gap in the data that much be bridged in order to assess the trends in the ozone record. Reanalysis products, such as the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are attractive candidates for trend analysis due to the statistically optimized combination of multiple observing systems and the regular temporal and spatial coverage. In this study, we explore using the SAGE records to develop a stable reanalysis data product, suitable for trend analysis, from the start of the SAGE II record in 1984 through the present. Changes in the assimilated observation systems can introduce discontinuities within the MERRA-2 ozone record, such as in 2004 when the MERRA-2 system shifted from assimilating ozone retrievals collected by SBUV instruments to those collected by instruments onboard the Aura satellite. We follow the radiative transfer procedure outlined by Wargan et al. (2018) to address discontinuities in the MERRA-2 ozone dataset at the 2004 transition and during the Aura record. SAGE II ozone profiles are used to address discontinuities in upper stratospheric ozone associated with changes in the MERRA-2 meteorological observing system in 1998 and 1995. Lastly, we will use the resulting bias-corrected MERRA-2 ozone fields to assess the relative performance of the data from different SAGE sensors.

SAGE↗

NASA NTRS1984

Active controls: A look at analytical methods and associated tools

A review of analytical methods and associated tools for active controls analysis and design problems is presented. Approaches employed to develop mathematical models suitable for control system analysis and/or design are discussed. Significant efforts have been expended to develop tools to generate the models from the standpoint of control system designers' needs and develop the tools necessary to analyze and design active control systems. Representative examples of these tools are discussed. Examples where results from the methods and tools have been compared with experimental data are also presented. Finally, a perspective on future trends in analysis and design methods is presented.

Newsom, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Active control - A look at analytical methods and associated tools

A review of analytical methods and associated tools for active controls analysis and design problems is presented. Approaches employed to develop mathematical models suitable for control system analysis and/or design are discussed. Significant efforts have been expended to develop tools to generate the models from the standpoint of control system designers' needs and to develop the tools necessary to analyze and design active control systems. Representative examples of these tools are discussed. Examples where results from the methods and tools have been compared with experimental data are also presented. Finally, a perspective on future trends in analysis and design methods is presented.

Newsom, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Wintertime losses of ozone in high northern latitudes

Total column ozone data over the past 22 to 30 years from ground-based Dobson and filter ozonometer stations between 30 N and 80 N are analyzed for residual trends remaining after allowance for the known geophysical variations corresponding to: (1) the change of seasons; (2) the quasi-biennial oscillation; and (3) the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Examination of the data from several ground stations between 45 and 55 N indicated a seasonal difference in the long-term ozone series, with statistically significant losses in several winter months. Accordingly, the data from individual stations were analyzed with multiple regression analysis, seeking trends on a monthly basis after allowance for the known geophysical cycles. Previous statistical analyses were conducted as tests of 1-D model calculations which do not show any differences with the seasons, and any trend toward change in ozone concentrations is expressed in a yearly trend without seasonal variation. Such a model is inappropriate for calculations with a data set which exhibits a pronounced tendency toward seasonal differences in the trends. Comparisons with model calculations then require 2-D models into which seasonal and latitudinal differences can easily be programmed.

Harris, Neil↗

NASA NTRS2009

Detection of Flooding Responses at the River Basin Scale Enhanced by Land use Change

The Georges Creek watershed (area 187.5 sq km) in western Maryland (United States) has experienced land use changes (>17% of area) associated with surface mining of coal. The adjacent Savage River watershed (area 127.2 sq km) is unmined. Moments of flood frequency distributions indicated that climatic variability affected both watersheds similarly. Normalizing annual maximum flows by antecedent streamflow and causative precipitation helped identify trends in flooding response. Analysis of contemporary storm events using Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) stage III precipitation data showed that Georges Creek floods are characterized by higher peak runoff and a shorter centroid lag than Savage River floods, likely attributable to differences in current land use. Interestingly, Georges Creek produces only two thirds of the storm-flow volume as Savage River, apparently because of infiltration into abandoned deep mine workings and an associated transbasin diversion constructed circa 1900. Empirical trend analysis is thus complicated by both hydroclimatic variability and the legacy of deep mining in the basin.

McCormick, Brian C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing A Continuous Ozone Record Through the SAGE and Aura Missions With NASA Reanalysis Products

During the last quarter of the 20th century, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions were crucial in monitoring the loss and subsequent recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Due to the employed solar occultation and self-calibration method, the SAGE monitors have produced stable data throughout the lifetime of each instrument. However, over ten years passed between the end of the SAGE II and SAGE III/M3M missions in 2005 and the launch of SAGE III/ISS instrument in 2017, leaving a gap in the data that must be bridged in order to assess trends in the ozone record. The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis product, with output available starting in 1980, is an attractive candidate for trend analysis due to the statistically optimized combination of multiple observing systems and the regular temporal and spatial coverage. However, changes in the assimilated observation systems can introduce discontinuities within the MERRA-2 ozone record, such as in 2004 when the MERRA-2 system shifted from assimilating ozone retrievals collected by SBUV instruments to those collected by instruments onboard the Aura satellite. In this study, we explore using the SAGE II record as a transfer function to develop a stable reanalysis data product, suitable for trend analysis, from the start of the SAGE II record in 1984 through the present. We follow the procedure outlined by Wargan et al. (2018) to address discontinuities in the MERRA-2 ozone dataset at the 2004 transition and during the Aura record. SAGE II ozone profiles are used to correct discontinuities in upper stratospheric ozone associated with changes in the MERRA-2 meteorological observing system in 1998 and 1995. We will then assess the relative performance of the data from different SAGE sensors using the resulting bias-corrected MERRA-2 ozone fields.

Pamela Wales↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Far-Infrared Polarization Spectrum of Ρ Ophiuchi A from HAWC+/SOFIA Observations

We report on polarimetric maps made with HAWC+/SOFIA toward ρ Oph A, the densest portion of the ρ Ophiuchi molecular complex. We employed HAWC+ bands C (89 μm) and D (154 μm). The slope of the polarization spectrum was investigated by deﬁning the quantity R(sub DC) = p(sub D)/p(sub C), where p(sub C) and p(sub D) represent polarization degrees in bands C and D, respectively. We ﬁnd a clear correlation between R(sub DC) and the molecular hydrogen column density across the cloud. A positive slope (R(sub DC) > 1) dominates the lower-density and well- illuminated portions of the cloud, which are heated by the high-mass star Oph S1, whereas a transition to a negative slope (R(sub DC) < 1) is observed toward the denser and less evenly illuminated cloud core. We interpret the trends as due to a combination of (1) warm grains at the cloud outskirts, which are efﬁciently aligned by the abundant exposure to radiation from Oph S1, as proposed in the radiative torques theory; and (2) cold grains deep in the cloud core, which are poorly aligned owing to shielding from external radiation. To assess this interpretation, we developed a very simple toy model using a spherically symmetric cloud core based on Herschel data and veriﬁed that the predicted variation of R(sub DC) is consistent with the observations. This result introduces a new method that can be used to probe the grain alignment efﬁciency in molecular clouds, based on the analysis of trends in the far-infrared polarization spectrum.

Santos, Fabio P.↗