Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Trending analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

Development of the ISS EMU SPEEDR

The Self Powered EVA EMU Data Recorder (SPEEDR) is an FPGA (Field-programmable gate array) based device designed to collect high-rate EMU (Extravehicular Mobility Unit) PLSS (Primary Life Support Subsystem) data for download at a later time. The existing EMU PLSS data down-link capability during EVA is one data packet every 2 minutes and is subject to bad packets or loss of signal. High-rate PLSS data is generated by the ECWS (Enhanced Caution and Warning System) but is not normally captured or distributed. Access to high-rate data will increase the capability of EMU anomaly resolution team to pinpoint issues remotely, saving crew time by reducing required call-down Q&A and on-orbit diagnostic activities. With no Shuttle flights post FY11, and potentially limited down-mass capability, the ISS crew and ground support personnel will have to be capable of on-orbit operations to maintain, diagnose, repair, and return to service EMU hardware, possibly through 2028. Collecting high-rate EMU PLSS data during both IVA (Intravehicular Activity) and EVA (Extravehicular Activity) operations will provide trending analysis for life extension and/or predictive performance. The SPEEDR concept has generated interest as a tool/technology that could be used for other ISS subsystems or future exploration-class space suits where hardware reliability/availability is critical and low/variable bandwidth may require "store then forward" methodology. Preliminary work in FY11 produced a functional prototype consisting of an FPGA evaluation board, custom memory/interface circuit board, and custom software. The SPEEDR concept includes a stand-alone battery that is recharged by a computer USB (Universal Serial Bus) port while data is being downloaded.

Bernard. Craig↗

Development of the Self-Powered Extravehicular Mobility Unit Extravehicular Activity Data Recorder

The Self-Powered Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Data Recorder (SPEEDR) is a field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based device designed to collect high-rate EMU Primary Life Support Subsystem (PLSS) data for download at a later time. During EVA, the existing EMU PLSS data downlink capability is one data packet every 2 minutes and is subject to bad packets or loss of signal. Higher-rate PLSS data is generated by the Enhanced Caution and Warning System but is not normally captured or distributed. Access to higher-rate data will increase the capability of EMU anomaly resolution team to pinpoint issues remotely, saving crew time by reducing required call-down Q&A and on-orbit diagnostic activities. With no Space Shuttle flights post Fiscal Year 2011 (FY11), and potentially limited down-mass capability, the ISS crew and ground support personnel will have to be capable of on-orbit operations to maintain, diagnose, repair, and return to service EMU hardware, possibly through 2028. Collecting high-rate EMU PLSS data during both intravehicular activity (IVA) and EVA operations will provide trending analysis for life extension and/or predictive performance. The SPEEDR concept has generated interest as a tool/technology that could be used for other International Space Station subsystems or future exploration-class space suits where hardware reliability/availability is critical and low/variable bandwidth may require store then forward methodology. Preliminary work in FY11 produced a functional prototype consisting of an FPGA evaluation board, custom memory/interface circuit board, and custom software. The SPEEDR concept includes a stand-alone battery that is recharged by a computer Universal Serial Bus (USB) port while data are being downloaded.

Bernard, Craig↗

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are computed versus the previous 1, previous 3, and all previous years in the MODIS record for a given 24 day interval. Other "weekly" forest change products include one computed using an adaptive length compositing method for quicker detection of disturbances, two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology (e.g., early versus late springs). This overall approach enables forest disturbance dynamics from a variety of regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances to be viewed and assessed through the calendar year. The change products are also being utilized for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. ForWarn's forest change products are used to alert forest health specialists about new forest disturbances. Such alerts are also typically based on available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances to multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn offers products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Identification of Vehicle Health Assurance Related Trends

Trend analysis in aviation as related to vehicle health management (VHM) was performed by reviewing the most current statistical and prognostics data available from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident, and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident datasets. In addition, future directions in aviation technology related to VHM research areas were assessed through the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementations (SERFIs), the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Most-Wanted List and recent open safety recommendations, the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics, and the Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) areas of change. Future research direction in the VHM research areas is evidently strong as seen from recent research solicitations from the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), and VHM-related technologies actively being developed by aviation industry leaders, including GE, Boeing, Airbus, and UTC Aerospace Systems. Given the highly complex VHM systems, modifications can be made in the future so that the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project (VSST) technical challenges address inadequate maintenance crew's trainings and skills, and the certification methods of such systems as recommended by the NTSB, NRC, and FAST areas of change.

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa↗

The Evolution of Software and Its Impact on Complex System Design in Robotic Spacecraft Embedded Systems

The growth in computer hardware performance, coupled with reduced energy requirements, has led to a rapid expansion of the resources available to software systems, driving them towards greater logical abstraction, flexibility, and complexity. This shift in focus from compacting functionality into a limited field towards developing layered, multi-state architectures in a grand field has both driven and been driven by the history of embedded processor design in the robotic spacecraft industry.The combinatorial growth of interprocess conditions is accompanied by benefits (concurrent development, situational autonomy, and evolution of goals) and drawbacks (late integration, non-deterministic interactions, and multifaceted anomalies) in achieving mission success, as illustrated by the case of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Approaches to optimizing the benefits while mitigating the drawbacks have taken the form of the formalization of requirements, modular design practices, extensive system simulation, and spacecraft data trend analysis. The growth of hardware capability and software complexity can be expected to continue, with future directions including stackable commodity subsystems, computer-generated algorithms, runtime reconfigurable processors, and greater autonomy.

software↗

International Space Station Acoustics - A Status Report

It is important to control acoustic noise aboard the International Space Station (ISS) to provide a satisfactory environment for voice communications, crew productivity, alarm audibility, and restful sleep, and to minimize the risk for temporary and permanent hearing loss. Acoustic monitoring is an important part of the noise control process on ISS, providing critical data for trend analysis, noise exposure analysis, validation of acoustic analyses and predictions, and to provide strong evidence for ensuring crew health and safety, thus allowing Flight Certification. To this purpose, sound level meter (SLM) measurements and acoustic noise dosimetry are routinely performed. And since the primary noise sources on ISS include the environmental control and life support system (fans and airflow) and active thermal control system (pumps and water flow), acoustic monitoring will reveal changes in hardware noise emissions that may indicate system degradation or performance issues. This paper provides the current acoustic levels in the ISS modules and sleep stations and is an update to the status presented in 2011. Since this last status report, many payloads (science experiment hardware) have been added and a significant number of quiet ventilation fans have replaced noisier fans in the Russian Segment. Also, noise mitigation efforts are planned to reduce the noise levels of the T2 treadmill and levels in Node 3, in general. As a result, the acoustic levels on the ISS continue to improve.

Allen, Christopher S.↗

Development of a Relay Performance Web Tool for the Mars Network

Modern Mars surface missions rely upon orbiting spacecraft to relay communications to and from Earth systems. An important component of this multi-mission relay process is the collection of relay performance statistics supporting strategic trend analysis and tactical anomaly identification and tracking.

data accountability↗

Midlatitude Cloud Shifts, Their Primary Link to the Hadley Cell, and Their Diverse Radiative Effects

We investigate the interannual relationship among clouds, their radiative effects, and two key indices of the atmospheric circulation: the latitudinal positions of the Hadley cell edge and the midlatitude jet. From reanalysis data and satellite observations, we find a clear and consistent relationship between the width of the Hadley cell and the high cloud field, statistically significant in nearly all regions and seasons. In contrast, shifts of the midlatitude jet correlate significantly with high cloud shifts only in the North Atlantic region during the winter season. While in that region and season poleward high cloud shifts are associated with shortwave radiative warming, over the Southern Oceans during all seasons they are associated with shortwave radiative cooling. Finally, a trend analysis reveals that poleward high cloud shifts observed over the 1983-2009 period are more likely related to Hadley cell expansion, rather than poleward shifts of the midlatitude jets.

Satellite observatioin↗

Topic Modeling of NASA Space System Problem Reports: Research in Practice

Problem reports at NASA are similar to bug reports: they capture defects found during test, post-launch operational anomalies, and document the investigation and corrective action of the issue. These artifacts are a rich source of lessons learned for NASA, but are expensive to analyze since problem reports are comprised primarily of natural language text. We apply topic modeling to a corpus of NASA problem reports to extract trends in testing and operational failures. We collected 16,669 problem reports from six NASA space flight missions and applied Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic modeling to the document corpus. We analyze the most popular topics within and across missions, and how popular topics changed over the lifetime of a mission. We find that hardware material and flight software issues are common during the integration and testing phase, while ground station software and equipment issues are more common during the operations phase. We identify a number of challenges in topic modeling for trend analysis: 1) that the process of selecting the topic modeling parameters lacks definitive guidance, 2) defining semantically-meaningful topic labels requires nontrivial effort and domain expertise, 3) topic models derived from the combined corpus of the six missions were biased toward the larger missions, and 4) topics must be semantically distinct as well as cohesive to be useful. Nonetheless,topic modeling can identify problem themes within missions and across mission lifetimes, providing useful feedback to engineers and project managers.

Data Mining↗

Achieving Fast Operational Intelligence in NASA's Deep Space Network Through Complex Event Processing

NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) is a complex, global project, in which the expertise of human operators remain crucial for its successful operation. To find ways to save costs in operations and to improve its services, a number of modernization efforts are underway in the DSN. One such effort is a research and technology development task at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory that is investigating the use of complex event processing (CEP) for intelligent assessment of situations, trend analysis, and advanced automation. The technology leverages the significant business intelligence (BI) and data science advancements made in the enterprise industries over the last several years. The open source big data processing engine Apache SparkTM and the high-throughput, distributed messaging system Apache Kafka form the core of the DSN Complex Event Processing (DCEP) framework. This paper discusses the system engineering perspective of why achieving efficient, lower-cost operations in the DSN is a challenging problem, how the DCEP system handles the use cases that help realize intelligent operations, and how this solution fits into the overall model of the planned DSN Follow-the- Sun Operations (FtSO).

Choi, Joshua S.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-35847-DND

Aerosols, especially particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters smaller than 2.5 ?m (PM2.5), contribute to air pollution and negatively impact human health. Past studies have estimated PM2.5 concentrations through the use of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) datasets from passive satellite sensors like MODIS and MISR. However, a major limitation of using passive AOTs for PM2.5 applications is that they are column-integrated, while PM2.5 is a surface measurement. In this study, we employ a bulk-mass-modeling-based method to directly derive PM2.5 concentrations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two years (2008-2009) of daytime and nighttime near-surface aerosol extinction retrievals from the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument, bulk mass extinction efficiencies, and model-based hygroscopicity. Results reveal that CALIOP-derived PM2.5 agrees reasonably well with ground-based PM2.5 observations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), implying this method exhibits some merit in monitoring PM2.5 concentrations from CALIOP data. The newly developed method is then applied to CALIOP aerosol extinction retrievals using nearly the entire CALIOP data record (2007-2018), and an initial trend analysis is conducted. Results from various sensitivity studies are also shown, including those of surface layer height and assumed aerosol type.

Travis D Toth↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-18322-DND

MetOp-A satellite was launched on 19 October 2006 and MetOp-B was launched on 17 September 2013. Two satellites fly in complementary orbits and in a sun synchronous morning orbit passing over the Equator at the same local time 9:30 am. MetOp-B phased 50 minutes apart from MetOp-A. Presented here are the global surface IR emissivity spectra retrieved from IASI measurements observed from both MetOp-A and MetOp-B satellites. Inter-comparison of the emissivities obtained from MetOp-A and MetOp-B is performed to ensure the continuity of emissivity monitoring and its trend analysis. Effort on emissivity validation continues with available ground in-situ measurements and retrieval consistency check through radiative transfer model simulations. The spatial resolution of emissivity climatology atlas is now increased from 0.5 to 0.25 degrees latitude-longitude, and available to the community.

Daniel K Zhou↗

The Role of Anomalous Satellite-Fixed Accelerations in TOPEX/Poseidon Orbit Maintenance

Shortly after the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon on 10 August 1992 orbit determination indicated orbital decay levels approximately 60 times larger than could be explained by atmospheric drag. Outgassing, a complex process of molecular releases from satellite non-metallic parts, was the most likely source of these early decay rates. The high decay levels steadily declined during the first six weeks while a planned sequence of six orbit adjust maneuvers placed the satellite in the operational orbit to precisely overfly a predetermined repeat ground track. At the same time, on-going orbit trend analysis revealed the presence of residual along-track forces comparable to atmospheric drag which clearly exhibited a body-fixed origin. These anomalous forces cause either orbital decay or boost, depending on the satellite attitude and solar array articulation mode. As such, these along-track forces can either add to, or oppose, the resident orbital decay due to drag...

Bhat, R.S.↗

Telemetry Anomaly Detection System using Machine Learning to Streamline Mission Operations

Spacecraft housekeeping telemetry is monitored at flight control centers by the operations engineers using tools that can perform limit checking or simple trend analysis. Recent developments in machine learning techniques for anomaly detection enables the implementation of more sophisticated systems that aim to augment current state-of-theart mission tools to provide valuable decision support for the spacecraft operators, assisting in anomaly detection and potentially saving console time for the engineers. We will show some results of the implementation of an anomaly detection tool for the NASA Mars Science Laboratory mission.

Weber, Romann↗

Delaware Ecological Forecasting: Assessing Land Cover and Soil to Identify Suitable Sites for Tidal Marsh Migration in Delaware

Tidal wetlands provide vital resources for the state of Delaware, crucial not only for maintaining important ecosystem functions, but also for providing human populations with substantial services. Healthy wetland networks offer protection from severe weather, reduce flooding, improve water quality, and provide opportunities for education and recreation. However, human activities in combination with natural events, continue to cause substantial loss of wetland cover and damage wetland health. Over the last thirty years, the state of Delaware has experienced a net loss of roughly 5,000 acres of wetland. In collaboration with the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC), the team used NASA Earth observations including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals (GPM IMERG) to develop a methodology to monitor recent changes in wetland cover and forecast landward marsh migration due to sea-level rise, changes to climate, and human development. Trend analysis of current and past climate conditions in precipitation and temperature revealed an overall increase in both metrics. Using Land Change Modeler in TerrSet and Suitability Modeler in ArcGIS Pro, the team visualized landcover shifts over the last 20 years, indicating a general pattern of net wetland loss and identified locations where marsh migration could potentially occur in the future. These observations will enable better planning for restoration activities and in form decision-making to preserve wetland health and ecosystem functions.

McKenna Brahler↗

The Impact of Drifting Orbits on the Monthly Regional TOA Flux Assuming Constant Meteorology

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) gridded Single Scanner Footprint (SSF1deg) product provides TOA SW and LW monthly 1° regional all-sky fluxes, which are used to monitor the Earth’s energy balance. The CERES long-term climate data record relies on Terra and Aqua satellite sun-synchronous orbits that are maintained at 10:30 and 1:30 local equator crossing times (LECT), respectively. The Terra and Aqua satellites are expected to drift outside of their respective LECT during mid 2022. Both Terra and Aqua will drift over several years towards sunrise and sunset, respectively, and eventually will be deorbited. The CERES SSF1deg product monthly regional fluxes are based on the well calibrated and stable CERES observed fluxes and are temporally interpolated assuming constant meteorology between measurements to resolve the regional diurnal flux cycle to obtain a daily averaged flux. The drifting orbits may impact the monthly regional TOA flux over regions with systematic diurnal cycles, because the observations will shift in local time. The CERES project would like to determine the maximum Terra and Aqua LECT time shift before the monthly regional fluxes are diurnally impacted and become unreliable for long-term climate monitoring. To determine the impact of the drifting orbits on the SSF1deg monthly regional fluxes,15-minute Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) broadband observed fluxes over the Meteosat geostationary satellite domain (±60° in longitude and latitude) are used as proxy CERES observations. The drifting orbit sampling pattern is achieved by simply incrementing the observation time by steps of 15 minutes from the CERES footprint time. For each 15-minute time interval, the CERES observed fluxes are replaced by the GERB observed fluxes. The-15 minute incremented monthly regional fluxes based on constant meteorology are compared to the reference 10:30 and 1:30 LECT fluxes. Regions with systematic diurnal cycles, include morning maritime stratus, where the clouds dissipate during the morning, and land afternoon convection, where clouds increase in the afternoon will impact the regional flux differences. Based on January and July 2010 GERB data, even a 15-minute LECT change caused regional monthly flux differences that would impact long term regional trend analysis. Results will be shown at the conference.

David Doelling↗

Natural Language Processing Techniques for Intelligent Knowledge Management of Safety Reports

Safety, failure, and incident reports are common artifacts across various domains, including aviation and wildfire response. These reports are often mandatory to submit, resulting in the culmination of large repositories of text-based documents. Simultaneously, these reports and corresponding repositories are often only manually analyzed and queried by users via out-of-date search engines. As a consequence, we have been developing the Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) toolkit, which uses natural language processing to improve information access and reuse. In this presentation, we discuss natural language processing techniques for knowledge discovery and apply these methods to a repository of aerial wildfire mishap reports. Two methods are used for knowledge discovery: topic modeling and named-entity recognition. We use topic modeling to identify hazards and perform a trend analysis to produce a data-driven risk matrix. A custom named-entity recognition model, build from fine tuning a pre-trained language model, is used to identify failure modes, failure causes, failure effects, control processes, and recommendations to aid in failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Throughout the presentation, we discuss and apply natural language processing techniques to better leverage the vast amount of information contained in report repositories.

Machine learning↗

GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation Beyond Aura MLS: Assimilating NASA SAGE III/ISS Profiles of Stratospheric Water Vapor and Ozone

Ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are important trace gases for atmospheric chemistry and radiative budget. The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions have been crucial in monitoring the stratospheric ozone loss and the subsequent recovery as well as the trends in water vapor linked to surface temperature trends. The SAGE III instrument aboard the International Space Station (ISS) continues the SAGE mission record, with high vertical resolution profiles of ozone and water vapor available since mid 2017. The NASA GEOS Earth system model has the new capability to assimilate multi-constituents from ground and space-based instruments using the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS). The recently released MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis with Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM) assimilates version 4.2 MLS ozone, water vapor and other chemically-reactive species with the NASA GEOS model coupled to a stratospheric-only chemistry mechanism and transport constrained to the MERRA-2 reanalysis. While the number of solar occultation observations a day from SAGE III/ISS is about 1% of the total number of profiles observed globally by MLS, the chemical timescales of ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are long enough that the SAGE III/ISS data may provide a useful constraint on the assimilated product. Using the same GEOS CoDAS configuration as M2-SCREAM, we will present a series of experiments to investigate if ozone and water vapor trends are consistent with the assimilation of SAGE observations with and without Aura retrievals, and to determine if the assimilation of SAGE observations produces a steady product for trend analysis, especially as the end of the Aura mission nears. In our experiments, assimilating only SAGE III/ISS water vapor profiles results in water vapor fields more consistent with experiments that assimilate MLS v5; however, in the polar regions SAGE III/ISS observations are not available and the values are unconstrained. We are encouraged by the positive benefit assimilating the less frequent SAGE III/ISS observations has on stratospheric composition. Sensitivity experiments such as these will allow us to assess the added value of SAGE data for continued monitoring of the stratospheric composition for climate and ozone recovery assessments.

SAGE↗