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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Electric Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock TM and ComStock TM models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—boiler replacement by air-source heat pump boiler. This measure replaces space heating natural gas boilers by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and helps quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 2.9. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 20%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 2.5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Pacific Coast Workshop Report on Preconstruction Research Recommendations (U.S. Offshore Wind Synthesis of Environmental Effects Research (SEER) Project)

In May 2022, the U.S. Offshore Wind Synthesis of Environmental Effects Research (SEER) project team hosted a stakeholder workshop focused on preconstruction (baseline) research needs for potential floating offshore wind (OSW) energy development on the U.S. Pacific Coast, including California, Oregon, and Washington. Prior to the workshop, the SEER team developed a set of initial synthesized research recommendations that were identified based on a review of relevant, publicly available resources and with advisory group input. The workshop covered three marine life breakout groups on subsequent days to discuss research recommendations related to 1) marine mammals and sea turtles, 2) fish and invertebrates, and 3) birds and bats. As part of the workshop, over a hundred participants from the public and private sectors provided feedback on various aspects of the initial research recommendations, including associated data and knowledge gaps, benefits/limitations of available methods and technologies, and technological advancements or infrastructure needed to address the recommendation. Approximately 1,000 total comments were received on the workshop MURAL boards and were synthesized in this report. Based on workshop feedback, SEER developed a final database of over 500 specific research recommendations based on more than 40 resources. In Fall 2022, the full database and a tool with updated synthesized research recommendations were disseminated on Tethys (https://tethys.pnnl.gov) to assist with informing future funding opportunities and research programming. There is a continued need to improve awareness of the potential environmental effects, monitoring technologies, and management strategies for floating OSW energy development on the U.S. Pacific Coast. Coordination of these activities will require the sustained involvement of multiple stakeholders from across sectors. Beyond the baseline considerations discussed in this workshop, future state-of-the-science activities should be planned to consider research needs across wind energy life cycle phases for all relevant wildlife taxa and associated habitat and ecosystem processes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Lobe Power Calculator and Indication System with Physics and Cycle Based Models

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL measures reactor power through two methods, thermal and Nitrogen-16 (N-16) activity. Water power calculator (WPC) is a thermal power system that measures flow and temperature to determine the thermal quadrant powers. The N-16 system utilizes a beta chamber detector that outputs reactivity levels to calculate lobe power through an algorithm called lobe power calculation and indication system (LPCIS). The LPCIS utilizes the N-16 system and the WPC system to determine reactor core power levels. The WPC provides accurate calculations of quadrant and total reactor thermal power. With the use of WPC measurements, thermal-to-N-16 (T2N) power ratios are produced to determine if the two indication systems agree on core power. Relative magnitude equations are used to utilize N-16 coefficients and multipliers to improve the indications of the LPCIS. This is crucial for maintaining safety limits. Currently, the LPCIS system uses linear equations and matrices to calculate lobe power through multipliers and coefficients. Advancements in technology and system upgrades have assisted system engineers at INL with the objective to reach a more dynamic system. In return the system demonstrates an increase in the accuracy of power reading while maintaining safety margins. The new proposed coefficient and multiple method implements a cycle specific, and a physics-based model intended for changing coefficients during operation. This calibration experiment focuses on power splitting, outer shim and neck shim, as well as fuel burning into the RDAS weighting factors. Results show that the Physics learning method yields a smaller error margin inside of the desired power range for the data set 166-A. This proved true for both constrained and unconstrained testing. This is most likely due to the physics data fitting approach that resulted in favorable coefficients and multipliers for 166-A. Continuing to improve the physics-based model will help improve the power accuracy of the LPCIS system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Critical Review of the Circular Economy for Lithium-Ion Batteries and Photovoltaic Modules: Status, Challenges, and Opportunities

To meet net-zero emissions and cost targets for power production, recent analysis indicates that photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the United States could exceed 1 TW by 2050 alongside comparable levels of energy storage capacity, mostly from batteries. For comparison, the total U.S. utility-scale power capacity from all energy sources in 2020 was 1.2 TW (EIA 2022), of which solar satisfied approximately 3% (DOE 2021). With such massive scales of deployment, questions have arisen regarding issues of material supply for manufacturing, end-of-life management of technologies, environmental impacts across the life cycle, and economic costs to both individual consumers and society at large. A set of solutions to address these issues center on the development of a circular economy - shifting from a take-make-waste linear economic model to one that retains the value of materials and products as long as possible, recovering materials at end of life to recirculate back into the economy. With limited global experience, scholars and practitioners have begun to investigate circular economy pathways, focusing on applying novel technologies and analytical methods to fast-growing sectors like renewable energy. This critical review aims to synthesize the growing literature to identify key insights, gaps, and opportunities for research and implementation of a circular economy for two of the leading technologies that enable the transition to a renewable energy economy: solar PV and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). We apply state-of-the-science systematic literature review procedures to critically analyze over 3,000 publications on the circular economy of solar PV and LIBs, categorizing those that pass a series of objective screens in ways that can illuminate the current state of the art, highlight existing impediments to a circular economy, and recommend future technological and analytical research. We conclude that while neither PV nor LIB industries have reached a circular economy, they are both on a path towards increased circularity. Based on our assessment of the state of current literature and scientific understanding, we recommend research move beyond its prior emphasis on recycling technology development to more comprehensively investigate other CE strategies, more holistically consider economic, environmental and policy aspects of CE strategies, increase leveraging of digital information systems that can support acceleration towards a CE, and to continue to study CE-related aspects of LIB and PV markets.

circular economy↗
NASA NTRS2012

Principles to Products: Toward Realizing MOS 2.0

This is a report on the Operations Revitalization Initiative, part of the ongoing NASA-funded Advanced Multi-Mission Operations Systems (AMMOS) program. We are implementing products that significantly improve efficiency and effectiveness of Mission Operations Systems (MOS) for deep-space missions. We take a multi-mission approach, in keeping with our organization's charter to "provide multi-mission tools and services that enable mission customers to operate at a lower total cost to NASA." Focusing first on architectural fundamentals of the MOS, we review the effort's progress. In particular, we note the use of stakeholder interactions and consideration of past lessons learned to motivate a set of Principles that guide the evolution of the AMMOS. Thus guided, we have created essential patterns and connections (detailed in companion papers) that are explicitly modeled and support elaboration at multiple levels of detail (system, sub-system, element...) throughout a MOS. This architecture is realized in design and implementation products that provide lifecycle support to a Mission at the system and subsystem level. The products include adaptable multi-mission engineering documentation that describes essentials such as operational concepts and scenarios, requirements, interfaces and agreements, information models, and mission operations processes. Because we have adopted a model-based system engineering method, these documents and their contents are meaningfully related to one another and to the system model. This means they are both more rigorous and reusable (from mission to mission) than standard system engineering products. The use of models also enables detailed, early (e.g., formulation phase) insight into the impact of changes (e.g., to interfaces or to software) that is rigorous and complete, allowing better decisions on cost or technical trades. Finally, our work provides clear and rigorous specification of operations needs to software developers, further enabling significant gains in productivity.

AMMOS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search Method for Strategic Deconfliction of Package Delivery UAS

This research focuses on the strategic deconfliction of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in an urban package delivery environment with two depots and multiple drop-off locations. Since the formulated mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem is non-deterministic polynomial-time (NP) hard, a heuristic algorithm called "rolling horizon with k-position search (KPS)" is used to compute the departure sequence and scheduled time of departure (STD) of each UAS at a depot, considering temporal constraints at en-route crossing waypoints and depots for strategic deconfliction. The simulation studies show that an increase in the value of k (local neighborhood search) in the KPS reduces the average ground delay at the cost of an increase in the computation time for a given number of UAS, size of the rolling horizon window, and number of depots involved in the local neighborhood search. The studies also show that for a given rolling horizon window, the computation time increases exponentially with an increase in the total number of UAS flights when serial processing the local neighborhood search of KPS (with k > 1) and drops by an order of magnitude upon performing the local neighborhood search of KPS using parallel processing instead of serial processing. The computation time drops with the reduction in air traffic complexity of a scenario for a given number of flights, k (local neighborhood search), and rolling horizon window.

UTM↗
NASA NTRS1993

Enhanced mixing of a rectangular supersonic jet by natural and induced screech

The influence of shear layer excitation on the mixing of supersonic rectangular jets was studied experimentally. Two methods of excitation were used to control the jet mixing. The first used the natural screech of an underexpanded supersonic jet from a converging nozzle. The level of the screech excitation was controlled by the use of a pair of baffles located to block the acoustic feedback path between the downstream shock structure and the nozzle lip. A screech level variation of over 30 decibels was achieved and the mixing was completely determined by the level of screech attained at the nozzle lip. The second form of self-excitation used the induced screech caused by obstacles or paddles located in the shear layers on either long side of the rectangular jet. With sufficient immersion of the paddles intense jet mixing occurred and large flapping wave motion was observed using a strobed focused Schlieren system. Each paddle was instrumented with a total pressure tap and strain gages to determine the pressure and drag force on the square cross-section paddle. Considerable drag was observed in this initial exploratory study. Future studies using alternate paddle geometries will be conducted to maximize jet mixing with minimum drag.

Rice, Edward J.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Characterizing the Aging of Alphasense NO2 Sensors in Long-term Field Deployments

Low-cost NO2 sensors have been widely deployed for atmospheric sampling. While their initial performance has been characterized, few studies have examined their long-term degradation. This study focused on the performance of Alphasense low-cost NO2 sensors (NO2-B42F and NO2-B43F) over 4 years (2016–2020). A total of 29 NO2 sensors from 10 batches were collocated 78 times at two sites with reference instruments. Raw signals from “functional” NO2 sensors correlated linearly with reference NO2 concentrations. After long-term deployment, sensor raw signals started to deviate from reference NO2 concentrations due to sensor aging, an accumulated effect after sensor unpacking. Several sensors eventually became “non-functional” as sensor raw signals showed no correlation with reference NO2 concentrations. Sensor aging and non-functionality may be primarily caused by expiration of the ozone (O3) scrubber built into these sensors so that sensors responded to both ambient NO2 and O3. The influence of O3 on sensor response is quantified through the permutation importance method. Most of the sensors are non-functional after approximately 200–400 days of deployment, and no sensor was functional after 400 days of deployment. This result agrees well with the estimated lifetime of the built-in ozone scrubbers considering the ambient ozone concentration in the Pittsburgh area where these sensors were deployed. To ensure reliable data quality in long-term field deployments, we recommend collocating NO2 sensors with reference instruments regularly after 200–400 days of deployment to identify and replace non-functional sensors in a timely manner.

NO2sensors↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Model for Ice Accretion Roughness Evolution and Spatial Variations

Over the past decade, multiple investigations of ice accretion roughness and spatial variations have been performed in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The early investigations used models of NACA 0012 airfoils with different chord sizes and focused on temporal scaling and primary cloud scaling parameters such as stagnation point collection efficiency. Subsequent investigations included the effects of model sweep, airfoil shape, airfoil lifting condition, and freestream static temperature. To develop a predictive model for roughness evolution in generalized icing situations, the maximum roughness values for the airfoils and conditions used in the angle of attack and freestream temperature investigations were scaled to eliminate the temporal variations. LEWICE simulations were employed to identify the local collection efficiency at the locations of maximum roughness, and a two-dimensional panel-method code was used to identify the local static pressure at the location of the maximum roughness. Because of the stochastic nature of ice accretion roughness, a physics-directed approach was employed to develop a multi-dimensional correlation based on the local pressure coefficient, the local total temperature, the cloud properties, and the cloud exposure time. The resulting correlation predictions are compared to ice shapes measured in the IRT for both a 21-in. NACA 0012 airfoil model and a 60-in. HAARP-II model. The resulting predictions indicate that the local freezing fraction must be included in the roughness predictive model. Implications regarding icing heat transfer predictions using the resulting roughness model are also discussed.

Icing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Land-use analysis using infrastructure representations and high-resolution flood inundation mapping techniques

In the face of climate change and population growth in coastal regions, land-use analysis efforts are more challenging than ever. Land-use decision-makers in coastal communities are burdened with the difficult choices of where to place new homes versus other assets. While there has been an increased focus on hazard mitigation and disaster resilience in the field of planning, evidence points towards continued development in risk-prone areas including flood zones. Residential development within flood zones specifically continues to be a major issue. To help counter this trend, this study introduces a novel land-use analysis method, coupling topographic flood inundation mapping techniques with digital elevation model (DEM) adaptations. This Topographic Model Scenario Generation workflow can be used by planners early in the land-use decision making process and provides an alternative to high-computational hydraulic models. The analysis also includes the identification of strengths and weaknesses of topographic models' recognition of built infrastructure assets, adding to a limited body of knowledge addressing recommended uses of such models. Levees and canals prove particularly functional in this context while detention ponds less so, likely due to a lack of total water mass accountability. Lastly, we provide a functional demonstration in Southeast Texas to illustrate the workflow's ability to create multiple infrastructure scenarios and visualize their effects across different flood events.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum/AI Topology-Aware Latency-Adaptive HPC Workflow Scheduling Optimization

The growing demand for more powerful high-performance computing (HPC) systems has led to a steady rise in energy consumption by supercomputing worldwide. This study is focused on comparing our Application-Topology Mapper (ATMapper) to the popular Simple Linux Utility for Resource Management (SLURM) for the purpose of exploring methods that can further optimize job-scheduling within HPC systems. ATMapper is an Artificial-Intelligence based approach to job-scheduling that is currently being enhanced with quantum annealing (QA) to generate optimal schedules faster. We are applying QA to speedup our ATMapper process to achieve higher computing efficiency, thereby reducing HPC energy consumption. Here, we examine how four job-scheduling approaches perform in processor node assignment when using an example network architecture of 4 interconnected nodes. Using a specialized script, we are assessing the schedule of a computation flow with 11 interdependent tasks. The data movements among nodes were tracked to count for the number of interactions (network hops) between nodes needed to complete the tasks. The total number of hops and the job completion time were then used to quantify the efficiency of the different mapping approaches. In addition to SLURM, we also compare our ATMapper to the QA-enabled LBNL TIGER and the D-Wave Distributed Computing processor assignment approaches. The preliminary results showed that our topology-aware, latency-adaptive ATMapper is significantly more efficient when compared to the other scheduling approaches due to its load-imbalance network allocation. The scheduler displayed a computing efficiency of 53% by performing significantly fewer network hops than its alternatives. By reducing the number of hops, ATMapper was able to perform all 11 tasks by using only 3 nodes out of given 4. This research indicates the potential to use QA/AI for HPC job-scheduling. Later, we will test a SLURM simulator program to draw further comparisons on the effectiveness of ATMapper's scheduling approach. The results of this comparison will serve as a baseline for later improving SLURM's performance using a QA-enhanced ATMapper approach.

Caraveo, Braulio [University of Huston - Clear Lak↗
NASA NTRS2016

Numerical Evaluation of an Ejector-Enhanced Resonant Pulse Combustor with a Poppet Inlet Valve and a Converging Exhaust Nozzle

A computational investigation of a pressure-gain combustor system for gas turbine applications is presented. The system consists of a valved pulse combustor and an ejector, housed within a shroud. The study focuses on two enhancements to previous models, related to the valve and ejector components. First, a new poppet inlet valve system is investigated, replacing the previously used reed valve configuration. Secondly, a new computational approach to approximating the effects of choked turbine inlet guide vanes present immediately downstream of the Ejector-Enhanced Resonant Pulse Combustor (EERPC) is investigated. Instead of specifying a back pressure at the EERPC exit boundary (as was done in previous studies) the new model adds a converging-diverging (CD) nozzle at the exit of the EERPC. The throat area of the CD nozzle can be adjusted to obtain the desired back pressure level and total mass flow rate. The results presented indicate that the new poppet valve configuration performs nearly as well as the original reed valve system, and that the addition of the CD nozzle is an effective method to approximate the exit boundary effects of a turbine present downstream of the EERPC. Furthermore, it is shown that the more acoustically reflective boundary imposed by a nozzle as compared to a constant pressure surface does not significantly affect operation or performance.

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD↗
DOE OSTI2026

Local convection characteristics of inline arrangement of Kagome-shaped unit cells in a square duct

Transient liquid crystal thermography experiments have been conducted to determine detailed convective heat transfer coefficients at the endwalls of lattice-frame configurations based on Kagome-shaped unit cells. Kagome unit cells with porosity of 0.88 were arranged in an inline manner, where two such arrangements were studied. In the first arrangement, a total of ten unit cells were placed next to each other along the streamwise direction resulting in a continuous configuration. In the 2nd arrangement, alternate unit cells from the continuous configuration were dropped, resulting in a discrete configuration which featured a total of 5 Kagome unit cells. Due to the asymmetric nature of the strut connections within the unit cell, the convective heat transfer coefficient maps were determined for the two opposite walls where the struts meet the endwalls. Transient liquid crystal experiments were conducted for Reynolds number ranging between 10,000 and 30,000. Here, the study was focused on the developing nature of flow along the streamwise direction and the local convection characteristics for continuous and discrete arrangement of unit cells. For the continuous configuration, the Nusselt number ratios (N u /Nu 0 ) varied between 3.15–3.46 and 2.75–2.89 for the two walls A and B, respectively. For the discrete configuration, convective heat transfer coefficients varied between 2.56–2.71 and 2.09–2.40 for the two walls. Kagome unit cells have the potential to be fabricated through inexpensive manufacturing routes such as wire-woven method and these unit cells find their applications in the areas which require different heat transfer levels on opposite walls.

Kagome↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical Simulation Studies of Ultrasonic De-Icing for Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Structures

Ice accumulation on heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVACR) structures presents significant operational challenges. These challenges include reduced efficiency, increased energy consumption, and potential damage to equipment. Traditional de-icing methods, such as chemical treatments, mechanical scraping, or heating-based techniques, are often labor-intensive, costly, and environmentally harmful. Here, this study uniquely investigates ultrasonic de-icing as an energy-efficient alternative for HVACR applications, focusing on the specific structural geometries found in these systems. A comprehensive numerical simulation framework was developed using finite element analysis to explore ultrasonic wave propagation across four distinct HVACR structures. Key parameters such as ultrasonic frequency, power levels, and the number and placement of actuators were examined for their impact on ice detachment efficiency. Results from simulations on a plate structure reveal that ultrasonic excitation can propagate effectively across large areas (at least 150 × 150 mm), enhancing the de-icing coverage. Lower frequency (e.g., 30 to 45 kHz) excitation results in greater displacement, improving de-icing performance, while increased actuator numbers with the same total power input also enhance effectiveness. Two actuators seem sufficient for the de-icing of a 300 × 300 mm plate. For tube-and-fin structures, specific high-power ultrasonic frequencies selectively excite the fin plates, demonstrating efficient ice removal when actuated on the tube. However, optimal performance requires careful design of actuator placement and vibration modes to accommodate the irregular shapes of these structures.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Magnetic pair distribution function and half polarized neutron powder diffraction at the HB-2A powder diffractometer

Local magnetic order and anisotropy are often central for understanding fundamental behavior and emergent functional properties in quantum materials and beyond. Advances in neutron powder diffraction experiments and analysis tools now allow for quantitative determination. Here, we demonstrate this here with complementary total neutron scattering and polarized neutron measurements on the HB-2A neutron powder diffractometer at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). In recent years, magnetic pair distribution function (mPDF) analysis has emerged as a powerful technique for probing local magnetic spin ordering of magnetic materials. This method can be broadly applied to any magnetic material but is particularly effective for studying systems with short-range magnetic order, such as materials with reduced dimensionality, geometrically frustrated magnets, thermoelectrics, multiferroics, and correlated paramagnets. Magnetic anisotropy often underpins the short-range order adopted. Half-polarized neutron powder diffraction (pNPD) can be used to determine the local susceptibility tensor on the magnetic sites to quantify the magnetic anisotropy. Combining the techniques of mPDF and pNPD can therefore provide valuable insights into local magnetic behavior. A series of measurements optimized for these techniques are presented as exemplar cases focused on frustrated materials where short-range order dominates, these include measurements to ultra-low temperature (<100 mK) not typically accessible for such experiments.

Half polarized neutron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analytical Tools to Assess Polymer Biodegradation: A Critical Review and Recommendations

Many petroleum-derived plastic materials are highly recalcitrant and persistent in the environment, posing significant threats to human and ecological receptors due to their accumulation in ecosystems. In recent years, research efforts have focused on advancing biological methods for polymer degradation. Enzymatic depolymerization has emerged as particularly relevant for biobased plastic recycling, potentially scalable for industrial use. Biodegradation involves adsorption to the plastic solid surface, followed by an interfacial reaction, resulting in cleavage of bonds of polymer chains exposed on the surface. Here, widely varying substrate-specific kinetics are observed, with the polymer’s properties possessing a significant impact on the rate of this interfacial catalysis. Thus, there is a critical need for sensitive and accurate characterization of the material surface during and after interfacial depolymerization to fully understand the reaction mechanisms. Here, we provide a critical review of a range of techniques used in the analysis of material surfaces to characterize the chemical, topological, and morphological features relevant to the study of enzymatic biocatalysis, including microscopy techniques, spectroscopic techniques (e.g., X-ray diffraction analysis, Fourier transform infrared attenuated total reflectance spectroscopy, and mass spectrometry detection of analytes associated with degradation). Techniques for evaluation of surface energy and topology in their relevancy for sensitive detection of biological surface modifications are also discussed. In addition, this paper provides an overview of the strengths of these techniques and compares their performance in both sensitivity and throughput, including emerging techniques, which can be useful, particularly for the rapid analysis of the surface properties of polymeric materials in high-throughput screening of candidate biocatalysts. This research serves as a starting point in selecting and applying appropriate methodologies that provide direct evidence to the ongoing biotic degradation of polymeric materials.

Colachis, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2016

Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMM v4.0.

medical equipment↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistics of base polytopes in F-theory

We propose a new statistical ensemble of toric bases for elliptic Calabi-Yaus used in F-theory models, by focusing on only the convex hull of the base, i.e., the base polytope. This physically motivated coarse-graining greatly simplifies the combinatorial complexity of the part of the 4d F-theory landscape with toric bases. We develop a Monte Carlo approach that randomly samples the base polytopes within fixed boxes, with proper statistical weights. We first apply the algorithm to the set of 2d base polytopes, generating an enlarged set of toric 2d bases that include certain types of codimension-two (4,6) points, and we validate our approach against exact numbers. We then explore the set of 3d base polytopes which fit in a set of “maximal” 3d boxes, and estimate the total number of inequivalent 3d base polytopes to be 10 85 –10 90 . We provide statistical data such as the distribution of non-Higgsable gauge groups on these bases. Amusingly, a similar method can also be applied to generate reflexive polytopes in various dimensions. In both the reflexive and base polytope cases, the number of relevant polytopes obeys a Gaussian distribution as a function of the number of vertices, which can be understood in terms of other results on random polytopes in the math literature.

Differential and algebraic geometry↗