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NASA NTRS1999

Mars Climate Orbiter's Investigation of the Atmosphere and Polar Caps

The Mars Climate Orbiter (MCO) is now on its way to Mars. It carries an atmospheric sounder whose observations will provide a continuous, global data set on weather and climate for a full Martian year. This paper describes the observation strategy and anticipated results from the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer (PMIRR). PMIRR will measure vertical profiles of atmospheric infrared radiance in the 7 to 50 micron wavelength region extending from the surface of Mars to 80-km altitude. The observations have a vertical resolution of 5 km, or one-half the atmospheric scale height. From these radiance profiles we will retrieve profiles of atmospheric temperature, pressure, and the amounts of dust, condensates and water vapor. In addition, PMIRR will measure the radiative balance of the polar regions of Mars in an effort to better understand the short-term climate variability of the planet. The information obtained with PMIRR on MCO will be complementary to data obtained by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Radio Science (RS) experiments on the Mars Global Surveyor. A major emphasis of our research will be the assimilation of PMIRR data into numerical models of the Martian atmosphere. Assimilation schemes, of which several are currently in development, will permit the extension of measurements to spatial and temporal scales and to phenomena (e.g. winds) not observed directly by PMIRR.

McCleese, D. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detection of local-scale changes in greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments using micrometeorological methods and comparison to a high-resolution inventory

We used the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) flux-variance relationship to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from high-precision mole fraction measurements at 3 instrumented urban communication towers over several years, demonstrating the ability of this method to detect and quantify changes in emissions. Depending on data availability, we used carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements and/or tracer ratios to estimate fluxes at 1 urban site (Site 3) and 1 suburban site (Site 7) in Indianapolis, IN, USA, and 1 urban site (COM) in Los Angeles, CA, USA. We also compared the estimated fluxes of CO 2 from fossil fuel sources (CO 2 ff) at Sites 3 and 7 and the total CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 to 20 m, hourly resolution subdomains of the high-resolution CO 2 emissions inventory, Hestia, for the year 2020, introducing a new way to evaluate emissions inventories at small spatial and temporal scales. Using the flux-variance relationship, we detected and quantified abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 and COM in April 2020, coinciding with the stay-at-home order due to COVID-19 pandemic, as well as abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 in July 2018 coinciding with a highway closure next to the site. The Hestia emissions inventory detected a decrease in emissions in April 2020 at Sites 3 and 7, but this decrease differed in magnitude from those detected in the atmospheric estimates. Seasonal trends in emissions are similar between Hestia and the atmospheric estimates at Site 7. We use differences in seasonal and spatial trends between the flux estimation methods to identify potential sources of uncertainty in both the atmospheric and inventory methods. The results from this study show that the flux-variance estimation method is a useful tool to monitor local-scale emissions and evaluate high-resolution emissions inventories.

Carbon dioxide↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unraveling plant phenotype to genotype associations with daily hyperspectral traits in Populus trichocarpa

Hyperspectral remote sensing is a powerful, high-throughput phenotyping tool that quantifies physiologically and structurally relevant wavelengths across diverse genotypes and over varying temporal scales. In this study, we combined tower-based continuous hyperspectral sensing with genome-wide association studies to analyze 1423 wavebands (400-900 nm) and derivative vegetation indices across 505 genotypes and the genetic architecture of hyperspectral phenotypes over time in Populus trichocarpa Torr. & Gray grown under field conditions. Wavelengths related to chlorophyll and carotenoid absorption spectra exhibited the strongest genetic variation resulting in 98 significant SNP associations. Notably, we found substantial overlap in genetic association between the blue and red spectral regions, indicative of carotenoids and chlorophyll, respectively, and identified more than 10 candidate genes associated with chloroplast function, underpinning photosynthetic activity. Furthermore, fluctuations in associations for vegetative indices, such as the chlorophyll:carotenoid index (CCI), across the growing season reveal a temporally dynamic genetic architecture of physiological traits associated with fall senescence of this temperate tree species. Finally, we also observed correlations (spearman rho = 0.3, p < 1x10 −8 ) between individual wavebands or vegetative indices and growth rate, assessed as the relative change of tree height over the growing season. The growth rate prediction was substantially improved by a regularization multivariate model (spearman rho>0.5, p < 1x10 −16 ), reinforcing the value of hyperspectral measurements for predicting traits linked to tree productivity. These findings highlight the potential of high-throughput, rapid, hyperspectral genome wide association studies GWAS to uncover physiologically meaningful genetic variation and offer promising insights for future acceleration for plant breeding.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2001

Dust Aerosols at the Source Region During ACE-ASIA: A Surface/Satellite Perspective

ACE (Aerosol Characterization Experiment)-Asia is designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. The phase-I of ACE-Asia was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Gobi desert, East Coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian dust is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean. During ACE-Asia we have measured continuously aerosol physical/optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from surface. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of dust aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical thickness. At the time of the Terra/MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS and other satellite overpasses, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with satellite retrievals over land. Preliminary results will be presented and discussed their implications in regional climatic effects.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

NASA NTRS2002

Characterization of Dust Properties Near Source Region During ACE-Asia: A Column Satellite-Surface Perspective

Many recent field experiments are designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern/southeastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. For example, the ACE-Asia was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts, East Coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian aerosols is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean. During ACE-Asia we have measured continuously aerosol physical/optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from surface. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical depth. At the time of the Terra/MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS and other satellite overpasses, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with satellite retrievals over land. Preliminary results will be presented and discussed their implications in regional climatic effects.

Tsay, S. -C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Characterization of Dust Properties at the Source Region During ACE-Asia

ACE (Aerosol Characterization Experiment)-Asia is designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally-occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. The phase-I of ACE-Asia was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Gobi desert, east coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian dust is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean. During ACE-Asia we have measured continuously aerosol optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from surface. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of dust aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical thickness. At the time of the Terra/MODIS overpass, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with MODIS retrievals over land. Preliminary results will be presented and discussed their implications in regional climatic effects.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

NASA NTRS2017

NeMO-Net The Neural Multi-Modal Observation Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment

In the past decade, coral reefs worldwide have experienced unprecedented stresses due to climate change, ocean acidification, and anthropomorphic pressures, instigating massive bleaching and die-off of these fragile and diverse ecosystems. Furthermore, remote sensing of these shallow marine habitats is hindered by ocean wave distortion, refraction and optical attenuation, leading invariably to data products that are often of low resolution and signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio. However, recent advances in UAV and Fluid Lensing technology have allowed us to capture multispectral 3D imagery of these systems at sub-cm scales from above the water surface, giving us an unprecedented view of their growth and decay. Exploiting the fine-scaled features of these datasets, machine learning methods such as MAP, PCA, and SVM can not only accurately classify the living cover and morphology of these reef systems (below 8 error), but are also able to map the spectral space between airborne and satellite imagery, augmenting and improving the classification accuracy of previously low-resolution datasets.We are currently implementing NeMO-Net, the first open-source deep convolutional neural network (CNN) and interactive active learning and training software to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology. NeMO-Net will be built upon the QGIS platform to ingest UAV, airborne and satellite datasets from various sources and sensor capabilities, and through data-fusion determine the coral reef ecosystem makeup globally at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales. To achieve this, we will exploit virtual data augmentation, the use of semi-supervised learning, and active learning through a tablet platform allowing for users to manually train uncertain or difficult to classify datasets. The project will make use of Pythons extensive libraries for machine learning, as well as extending integration to GPU and High-End Computing Capability (HECC) on the Pleiades supercomputing cluster, located at NASA Ames. The project is being supported by NASAs Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST-16) Program.

Remote Sensin↗

NASA NTRS2017

NeMO-Net: The Neural Multi-Modal Observation and Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment

In the past decade, coral reefs worldwide have experienced unprecedented stresses due to climate change, ocean acidification, and anthropomorphic pressures, instigating massive bleaching and die-off of these fragile and diverse ecosystems. Furthermore, remote sensing of these shallow marine habitats is hindered by ocean wave distortion, refraction and optical attenuation, leading invariably to data products that are often of low resolution and signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio. However, recent advances in UAV and Fluid Lensing technology have allowed us to capture multispectral 3D imagery of these systems at sub-cm scales from above the water surface, giving us an unprecedented view of their growth and decay. Exploiting the fine-scaled features of these datasets, machine learning methods such as MAP, PCA, and SVM can not only accurately classify the living cover and morphology of these reef systems (below 8 percent error), but are also able to map the spectral space between airborne and satellite imagery, augmenting and improving the classification accuracy of previously low-resolution datasets. We are currently implementing NeMO-Net, the first open-source deep convolutional neural network (CNN) and interactive active learning and training software to accurately assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems through determination of percent living cover and morphology. NeMO-Net will be built upon the QGIS platform to ingest UAV, airborne and satellite datasets from various sources and sensor capabilities, and through data-fusion determine the coral reef ecosystem makeup globally at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales. To achieve this, we will exploit virtual data augmentation, the use of semi-supervised learning, and active learning through a tablet platform allowing for users to manually train uncertain or difficult to classify datasets. The project will make use of Pythons extensive libraries for machine learning, as well as extending integration to GPU and High-End Computing Capability (HECC) on the Pleiades supercomputing cluster, located at NASA Ames. The project is being supported by NASAs Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST-16) Program.

NeMO-Net↗

NASA NTRS2012

Recent Progress on Deep Blue Aerosol Algorithm as Applied TO MODIS, SEA WIFS, and VIIRS, and Their Intercomparisons with Ground Based and Other Satellite Measurements

The impact of natural and anthropogenic sources of aerosols has gained increasing attention from scientific communities in recent years. Indeed, tropospheric aerosols not only perturb radiative energy balance by interacting with solar and terrestrial radiation, but also by changing cloud properties and lifetime. Furthermore, these anthropogenic and natural air particles, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across oceans and continents resulting in important biogeochemical impacts on the ecosystem. With the launch of SeaWiFS in 1997, Terra/MODIS in 1999, and Aqua/MODIS in 2002, high quality comprehensive aerosol climatology is becoming feasible for the first time. As a result of these unprecedented data records, studies of the radiative and biogeochemical effects due to tropospheric aerosols are now possible. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this newly available SeaWiFS/MODIS aerosol climatology can provide an important piece of puzzles in reducing the uncertainty of estimated climatic forcing due to aerosols. We will start with the global distribution of aerosol loading and their variabilities over both land and ocean on short- and long-term temporal scales observed over the last decade. The recent progress made in Deep Blue aerosol algorithm on improving accuracy of these Sea WiFS / MODIS aerosol products in particular over land will be discussed. The impacts on quantifying physical and optical processes of aerosols over source regions of adding the Deep Blue products of aerosol properties over bright-reflecting surfaces into Sea WiFS / MODIS as well as VIIRS data suite will also be addressed. We will also show the intercomparison results of SeaWiFS/MODIS retrieved aerosol optical thickness with data from ground based AERONET sunphotometers over land and ocean as well as with other satellite measurements. The trends observed in global aerosol loadings of both natural and anthropogenic sources based upon more than a decade of combined MODIS/SeaWiFS data (1997-2011) will be discussed. We will also address the importance of various key issues such as differences in spatial-temporal sampling rates and observation time between different satellite measurements could potentially impact these intercomparisons results, especially for using the monthly mean data, and thus on estimates of long-term aerosol trends.

Hsu, N. Christina↗

NASA NTRS2002

Dust, Pollution, and Biomass Burning Aerosols in Asian Pacific: A Column Surface/Satellite Perspective

Many recent field experiments are designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern/southeastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. For example, the phase-I of ACE-Asia was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Gobi desert, East Coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Springtime is also the peak season for biomass burning in southeastern Asia. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian aerosols is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean. During ACE-Asia we have measured continuously aerosol physical/optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from surface. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical depth. At the time of the Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor), TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) and other satellite overpasses, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with satellite retrievals over land. A column satellite-surface perspective of Asian aerosols will be presented and will discuss their implications in regional-to-global effects on climate, fresh water redistribution, and health issues. (to be presented in Hawaii, April 28 - May 3, and Beijing, China, May 6 - 10, 2002)

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

DOE OSTI2021

Downscaling SSP-consistent global spatial urban land projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km resolution 2000–2100

Abstract Long-term, spatial urban land projections that simultaneously offer global coverage and local-scale empirical accuracy are rare. Recently a set of such projections was produced using data-science-based simulations and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These projections update at decadal time intervals from 2000 to 2100 with a spatial resolution of 1/8 degree, while many socio-environmental studies customarily run their analysis and modelling at finer spatial resolutions, e.g. 1-km. Here we develop and validate an algorithm to downscale the 1/8-degree spatial urban land projections to the 1-km resolution. The algorithm uses an iterative process to allocate the decadal amount of urban land expansion originally projected for each 1/8-degree grid to its constituent 1-km grids. The results are a set of global maps showing urban land fractions at the 1-km resolution, updated at decadal intervals from 2000 to 2100, under five different urban land expansion scenarios consistent with the SSPs. The data can support studies of potential interactions between future urbanization and environmental changes across spatial and temporal scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2002

Characterization of Dust Properties during ACE-Asia and PRIDE: A Column Satellite-Surface Perspective

Many recent field experiments are designed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentration over particular pathways around the globe. For example, the ACE-Asia (Aerosol Characterization Experiment-Asia) was conducted from March-May 2001 in the vicinity of the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts, East Coast of China, Yellow Sea, Korea, and Japan, along the pathway of Kosa (severe events that blanket East Asia with yellow desert dust, peaked in the Spring season). The PRIDE (Puerto RIco Dust Experiment, July 2000) was designed to measure the properties of Saharan dust transported across the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean. Dust particles typically originate in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of dust aerosols is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the ocean. During ACE-Asia and PRIDE we had measured aerosol physical/optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over homogeneous areas from ground-based remote sensing. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical depth. At the time of the Terra/MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS and other satellite overpasses, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with satellite retrievals over land. We will present the results and discuss their implications in regional climatic effects.

Lau, William K. M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying albedo susceptibility biases in shallow clouds

The evaluation of radiative forcing associated with aerosol–cloud interactions remains a significant source of uncertainty in future climate projections. The problem is confounded by the fact that aerosol particles influence clouds locally and that averaging to larger spatial and/or temporal scales carries biases that depend on the heterogeneity and spatial correlation of the interacting fields and the nonlinearity of the responses. Mimicking commonly applied satellite data analyses for calculation of albedo susceptibility S o , we quantify S o aggregation biases using an ensemble of 127 large eddy simulations of marine stratocumulus. We explore the cloud field properties that control this spatial aggregation bias and quantify the bias for a large range of shallow stratocumulus cloud conditions manifesting a variety of morphologies and ranges of cloud fractions. We show that S o spatial aggregation biases can be on the order of hundreds of percent, depending on the methodology. Key uncertainties emanate from the typically applied adiabatic drop concentration N d retrieval, the correlation between aerosol and cloud fields, and the extent to which averaging reduces the variance in cloud albedo A c and N d . So biases are more often positive than negative and are highly correlated with biases in the liquid water path adjustment. Temporal aggregation biases are shown to offset spatial aggregation biases. Both spatial and temporal biases have significant implications for observationally based assessments of aerosol indirect effects and our inferences of underlying aerosol–cloud–radiation effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climate-Driven Legacies in Simulated Microbial Communities Alter Litter Decomposition Rates

The mechanisms underlying diversity-functioning relationships have been a consistent area of inquiry in biogeochemistry since the 1950s. Though these mechanisms remain unresolved in soil microbiomes, many approaches at varying scales have pointed to the same notion—composition matters. Confronting the methodological challenge arising from the complexity of microbiomes, this study used the model DEMENTpy, a trait-based modeling framework, to explore trait-based drivers of microbiome-dependent litter decomposition. We parameterized DEMENTpy for five sites along a climate gradient in Southern California, United States, and conducted reciprocal transplant simulations analogous to a prior empirical study. The simulations demonstrated climate-dependent legacy effects of microbial communities on plant litter decomposition across the gradient. This result is consistent with the previous empirical study across the same gradient. An analysis of community-level traits further suggests that a 3-way tradeoff among resource acquisition, stress tolerance, and yield strategies influences community assembly. Simulated litter decomposition was predictable with two community traits (indicative of two of the three strategies) plus local environment, regardless of the system state (transient vs. equilibrium). Although more empirical confirmation is still needed, community traits plus local environmental factors (e.g., environment and litter chemistry) may robustly predict litter decomposition across spatial-temporal scales. In conclusion, this study offers a potential trait-based explanation for climate-dependent community effects on litter decomposition with implications for improved understanding of whole-ecosystem functioning across scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2010

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds in the central fly ways of North America. We demonstrated the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers consisting of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations using an individual based migration model driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data and biological field data. With the advent of new computing capabilities enabled hy recent GPU-GP computing paradigms and commodity hardware, it now is possible to simulate both larger ensemble populations and to incorporate more realistic mechanistic factors into migration models. Here, we take our first steps use these tools to study the impact of long-term drought variability on shorebird survival.

Smith, James A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Complex Oxides for Brain–Inspired Computing: A Review

The fields of brain-inspired computing, robotics, and, more broadly, artificial intelligence (AI) seek to implement knowledge gleaned from the natural world into human-designed electronics and machines. In this review, the opportunities presented by complex oxides, a class of electronic ceramic materials whose properties can be elegantly tuned by doping, electron interactions, and a variety of external stimuli near room temperature, are discussed. The review begins with a discussion of natural intelligence at the elementary level in the nervous system, followed by collective intelligence and learning at the animal colony level mediated by social interactions. An important aspect highlighted is the vast spatial and temporal scales involved in learning and memory. The focus then turns to collective phenomena, such as metal-to-insulator transitions (MITs), ferroelectricity, and related examples, to highlight recent demonstrations of artificial neurons, synapses, and circuits and their learning. First-principles theoretical treatments of the electronic structure, and in situ synchrotron spectroscopy of operating devices are then discussed. The implementation of the experimental characteristics into neural networks and algorithm design is then revewed. Finally, outstanding materials challenges that require a microscopic understanding of the physical mechanisms, which will be essential for advancing the frontiers of neuromorphic computing, are highlighted.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of plant‐derived fire management prescriptions on fire‐responsive bird species

Abstract In fire‐prone regions, the occurrence of some faunal species is contingent on the presence of resources that arise through post‐fire plant succession. Through planned burning, managers can alter resource availability and aim to provide the conditions required to promote biodiversity. Understanding how species occurrence changes at different spatial and temporal scales after fire is essential to achieve this goal. However, many fire prescriptions are guided primarily by the responses of fire‐sensitive plants when setting tolerable fire intervals. This approach assumes that maintaining floristic diversity will satisfy the requirements of fauna. We surveyed bird species in two semi‐arid vegetation types across an environmental gradient in south‐eastern Australia. We conducted four surveys at each of 253 sites across a 75‐year chronosequence of time since fire and used generalized additive mixed models to examine changes in the occurrence of birds in response to time since fire. Model predictions were compared to plant‐derived fire prescriptions currently guiding fire management in the region. Time since fire was a significant predictor for 18 of 28 species modeled, in at least one vegetation type, over a gradient of 1.3° of latitude. We detected considerable variation in the responses of some species, both between vegetation types and geographically within a vegetation type. Our evaluation of plant‐derived fire prescriptions suggests that the intervals considered acceptable for maintaining floristic diversity may not be sustainable for populations of birds requiring longer unburnt vegetation, with 6 of the 12 species assessed attaining a mean occurrence probability of 20.3% by the minimum tolerable fire interval, and 57.3% by the maximum tolerable fire interval, in their respective vegetation types. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of fire‐responsive bird species if fire prescriptions are applied in a manner that fails to account for the slow development of habitat resources needed by some species, and the variation detected within the responses of species. This highlights the need for species‐specific data collected at an appropriate spatial scale to inform management plans.

Makdissi, Rhys↗