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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 rock physics modeling for reliable monitoring of geologic carbon storage

Monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) are crucial to ensure safe and long-term geologic carbon storage. Seismic monitoring is a key MVA technique that utilizes seismic data to infer elastic properties of CO 2 -saturated rocks. Reliable accounting of CO 2 in subsurface storage reservoirs and potential leakage zones requires an accurate rock physics model. However, the widely used CO 2 rock physics model based on the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation can substantially underestimate the influence of CO 2 saturation on seismic waves, leading to inaccurate accounting. We develop an accurate CO 2 rock physics model by accounting for both effects of the stress dependence of seismic velocities in porous rocks and CO 2 weakening on the rock framework. We validate our CO 2 rock physics model using the Kimberlina-1.2 model (a previously proposed geologic carbon storage site in California) and create time-lapse elastic property models with our new rock physics method. We compare the results with those obtained using the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation. Our innovative approach produces larger changes in elastic properties than the Biot-Gassmann results. Using our CO 2 rock physics model can replicate shear-wave speed reductions observed in the laboratory. Our rock physics model enhances the accuracy of time-lapse elastic-wave modeling and enables reliable CO 2 accounting using seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Methods to Observe Tribological Failures in Self-Mated Steel Contacts

Scuffing, a type of wear found in highly stressed or poorly lubricated contacts, is characterized by a rapid increase in friction and severe plastic deformation of the near-surface material. Scuffing has proven difficult to study because it initiates unpredictably, progresses rapidly, and typically develops within an inaccessible contact interface. Although there have been successful in-situ studies of scuffing in real-time, the transparent counter body needed for these studies changes the interactions between the surfaces and the lubricant, which affects the scuffing process in unknown ways. This paper describes the development of X-ray-compatible tribometry to study the scuffing of self-mated steels in-situ and in real-time. The method uses a crossed cylinders configuration with a thin (500 μm thick) stationary component and a small (≈200 μm) contact width to maximize X-ray interactions with atoms within the stress field generated by the contact. The resulting instrument and method are used to benchmark the scuffing response of self-mated 52,100 steel under tribologically challenging ‘oil-off’ lubrication conditions. The results demonstrate reliable scuffing in this configuration despite the relatively small contact areas and loads used. Following scuffing, gross plastic deformation was observed on both surfaces along with significant subsurface grain refinement and flow only on the stationary surface, which experienced constant contact. Interestingly, high friction initiated at specific locations of the migratory surface, which experienced intermittent contact, and then propagated across the track over time, suggesting that local conditions of the migratory surface dominated friction leading into the failure event.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A new coupled multiphase flow–finite strain deformation–fault slip framework for induced seismicity

Production of hydrocarbons and water from subsurface reservoirs are known to cause permanent deformation of the reservoir and seismicity along faults both of which are detrimental to sustainable development of natural resources. Most of the prior studies on understanding fluid flow-induced plasticity and seismicity have focused on one or the other phenomenon due to the numerical difficulty associated with simultaneous modeling of the two failure phenomena because stress and deformation evolve non-linearly in both plasticity and seismicity. However, in reservoirs undergoing long-term production, plastic failure can alter the stress paths of points on a fault such that the onset, location, and magnitude of actual seismic events can no longer be predicted by a poroelastic simulation due to inaccurate stress and deformation history. We present a computational framework for coupled multiphase flow, finite strain poroplastic deformation, and dynamic fault slip and use it to understand the impact of plastic deformation on the onset, location, and magnitude of induced fault slip events. We evaluate the impact of plasticity on reservoir pressure, deformation, induced stress, and fault slip by comparing infinitesimal strain elastic and finite strain poro-elastoplastic models. For real-world applications, we consider different scenarios where the reservoir is either mechanically weaker or stronger than the caprock. We analyze the stress evolution as a function of the change in reservoir pressure to understand the role of contrast in reservoir and caprock elastic moduli on geomechanical stability. The results show that the poroplastic reservoir exhibits larger vertical deformation and delayed slip than the poroelastic reservoir after the same amount of oil production. For the same amount of pressure drop, a reservoir with a smaller modulus than the caprock displays a larger vertical displacement and an earlier onset of both plastic failure and fault slip. For a reservoir with a larger modulus than the caprock, vertical displacement is larger on the reservoir top boundary and smaller on the ground surface, and a higher pressure drop is needed to induce plastic failure and fault slip.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

In Situ Velocity‐Strain Sensitivity Near the San Jacinto Fault Zone Analyzed Through Train Tremors

Abstract We utilize train tremors as P‐wave seismic sources to investigate velocity‐strain sensitivity near the San Jacinto Fault Zone. A dense nodal array deployed at the Piñon Flat Observatory is used to detect and identify repeating train energy emitted from a railway in the Coachella valley. We construct P‐wave correlation functions across the fault zone and estimate the spatially averaged dt / t versus strain sensitivity to be 6.25 × 10 4 . Through numerical simulations, we explore how the sensitivity decays exponentially with depth. The optimal solution reveals a subsurface sensitivity of 1.2 × 10 5 and a depth decay rate of 0.05 km −1 . This sensitivity aligns with previous findings but is toward the higher end, likely due to the fractured fault‐zone rocks. The depth decay rate, previously unreported, is notably smaller than assumed in empirical models. This raises the necessity of further investigations of this parameter, which is crucial to study stress and velocity variations at seismogenic depth.

Geology↗
NASA NTRS1988

Sampling the ancient volatile-rich areas of Mars

Viking images clearly show areas with a high density of fluidized craters that also display a significant number of wrinkle ridges. Fluidized crater ejecta morphology may indicate that the target material was rich in volatiles at the time of the impact. Therefore, these areas are of the utmost importance in deciphering both the Martian tectonic evolution and the amount of subsurface water, at times when more favorable conditions for life to evolve did exist on Mars. Although a large number of extensional features are associated with Tharsis and Elysium geologic activity, the planet-wide distribution of ridges suggests that Mars' tectonic history is far more complex than the Tharsis-dominated scenario indicates. Like on the Moon and Mercury, ridges on Mars were formed under compressive stresses, probably as a result of thrust-fault mechanism, although surface expressions and direct causes vary. Martian ridges are most easily seen on smooth plains of volcanic origin, but the majority of the 16,000 mapped and classified compressive features are located in the old terrains, far beyond Tharsis influence.

Chicarro, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2011

In Situ Guided Wave Structural Health Monitoring System

Aircraft engine rotating equipment operates at high temperatures and stresses. Noninvasive inspection of microcracks in those components poses a challenge for nondestructive evaluation. A low-cost, low-profile, high-temperature ultrasonic guided wave sensor was developed that detects cracks in situ. The transducer design provides nondestructive evaluation of structures and materials. A key feature of the sensor is that it withstands high temperatures and excites strong surface wave energy to inspect surface and subsurface cracks. The sol-gel bismuth titanate-based surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensor can generate efficient SAWs for crack inspection. The sensor is very thin (submillimeter) and can generate surface waves up to 540 C. Finite element analysis of the SAW transducer design was performed to predict the sensor behavior, and experimental studies confirmed the results. The sensor can be implemented on structures of various shapes. With a spray-coating process, the sensor can be applied to the surface of large curvatures. It has minimal effect on airflow or rotating equipment imbalance, and provides good sensitivity.

Zhao, George↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soft interface instability and gas flow channeling in low-permeability deformable media

Understanding gas percolation through a clay layer or a shale formation is of great importance for the development of a geologic repository for nuclear waste disposal, a subsurface system for gas storage, and an engineering approach for hydrocarbon extraction from unconventional reservoirs. Gas injection experiments have revealed complex dynamic behaviours of gas percolation through water saturated compacted bentonite, characterized by a high breakthrough pressure, rapid breakthrough, a pressure/stress decay after the breakthrough, a relatively high migration rate, high-frequency periodic/nonperiodic variations in flow rate, stepwise rate reductions during relaxation, and low gas saturation over the whole process, all indicating channelling nature of the processes. Using linear stability analyses, we show that this channelling can autonomously emerge from the instability of the deformable interface between the injected gas and the compacted bentonite matrix driven by local stress concentration, pore dilation, and hydrologic gradient. Channel patterns formed would possess a fractal geometry. We further show that, once a percolating channel is established, the gas injected would percolate through the channel in a chain of gas bubbles, also due to the interface instability, resulting in periodic/chaotic variations in gas flow rate. Our work provides a unified explanation for key features observed for gas percolation in low-permeability deformable media. The work also suggests a possibility of designing an engineered barrier system for a nuclear waste repository that can have controllable gas release while limit water transport.

Bentonite↗
NASA NTRS2014

Estimating Major Ion and Nutrient Concentrations in Mangrove Estuaries in Everglades National Park Using Leaf and Satellite Reflectance

Coastal mangrove ecosystems are under duress worldwide because of urban development, sea-level rise, and climate change, processes that are capable of changing the salinity and nutrient concentration of the water utilized by the mangroves. This study correlates long-term water chemistry in mangrove environments, located in Everglades National Park,with mangrove spectral reflectance measurements made at both the leaf and canopy scales. Spectral reflectance measurements were collected using a handheld spectrometer for leaf-level measurements and Landsat 5TMdata for regional coverage. Leaf-level reflectance data were collected from three mangrove species (i.e., red, black and white mangroves) across two regions; a tall mangrove (approximately 18m) and dwarf mangrove (1- 2 m) region. The reflectance data were then used to calculate a wide variety of biophysical reflectance indices (e.g., NDVI, EVI, SAVI) to determine signs of stress. Discrete, quarterly water samples from the surface water, groundwater, and pore water (20 and 85 cm depths) and daily autonomous surface water samples were collected at each site and analyzed for major anions (Cl(−) and SO(2(-)/4)), cations (Na(+), K(+), Mg(sup 2(+)), and Ca(sup 2(+)), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP).Mangrove sites that exhibited the highest salinity and ionic concentrations in the surface and subsurface water also had the lowest near-infrared reflectance at both the leaf and satellite levels. Seasonal reflectance responses were measured in the near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths at both the leaf and canopy scales and were strongly correlated with nutrient and ionic concentrations in the surface and subsurface water, even though there was no significant separability between the three mangrove species. Study sites that experienced the greatest variability in surface and subsurface water ionic concentrations also exhibited the greatest fluctuations in NIR spectral reflectance. Landsat 5TM images were able to detect tall and dwarf mangroves by the differences in spectral indices (e.g., NDVI, NDWI, and EVI) because of the variability in the background conditions amongst the environments. In addition, Landsat 5TM images spanning 16 years (1993- 2009) were successfully used to estimate the seasonal variability in ionic concentrations in the surface water across the Florida Coastal mangrove ecotone. This study has shown that water chemistry can be estimated indirectly by measuring the change in spectral response at the leaf- or satellite-scale. Furthermore, the results of this research may be extrapolated to similar coastal mangrove systems throughout the Caribbean and world-wide wherever red, black, and white mangroves occur.

Mangroves↗
DOE OSTI2023

Material Property Determinations for Rock Valley Legacy Samples in Support of Source Physics Experiment

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The overarching goals of the SPE program are to improve understanding of prompt signals and physical signatures that develop from underground chemical explosions and associated modeling capabilities. Our work focuses on a primary factor controlling chemical explosion induced signals and signatures: the material properties of the rocks in which the chemical explosion takes place. This document reports on material property determinations of legacy core USGS Test Well F and outcrop analogs for the subsurface stratigraphy for the third phase of SPE in the Rock Valley (RV) area of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The objective of this work is to establish a baseline set of lithologic descriptions and material properties expected prior to observatory borehole drilling in support of the SPE-RVDC (Rock Valley Direct Comparison) experiment. We determine for each rock type the compressional failure envelope, elastic properties as a function of stress (bulk modulus versus mean stress, shear modulus versus shear stress, Young’s modulus versus axial stress and Poisson’s ratio versus axial stress), indirect tensile strength, and porosity. Geologic characterization, both at the core-scale and microscale, provides context for using the data in modeling efforts and to inform interpretations for the material properties testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Approaches to Predicting Induced Seismicity and Imaging Geothermal Reservoir Properties

This project developed machine learning (ML) methods, lab data sets, and field data to advance geothermal exploration and geothermal energy production. The work had three focus areas. One involved the development of ML methods to use microearthquakes (MEQs) for imaging geothermal reservoir properties and improving subsurface characterization – most importantly the evolution of permeability within the evolving reservoir. This part of the work included development of ML approaches for automated MEQ location, focal mechanism determination and identification of earthquake precursors. The second area focused on using MEQ signals generated by geothermal exploration and production to predict the relationship between fluid injection and seismicity. Here, we extended to reservoir scale our success in using ML to predict laboratory earthquakes and fault zone stress state. The third focus area was on lab experiments. Here, we developed new ML models for lab earthquake prediction and identification of precursors to failure to improve earthquake forecasting and early warning in geothermal settings. Major outcomes of our work include ML models that learn from MEQ signals during geothermal exploration and production to predict induced seismicity. MEQs occur naturally in connection with drilling and energy production. We developed ML methods to use the seismic waves from these events to characterize the elastic, hydraulic and poromechanical properties of reservoirs. Our work illuminated fracture geometry and the evolution of fracture permeability by incorporating seismic coda wave analysis and ML methods to relate fluid injection and seismicity. We significantly expanded laboratory earthquake prediction to include methods that use both passive measurements of microearthquakes within the lab fault zones and also active source acoustic measurements of fault zone elastic properties. These methods can now predict fault zone stress state, time to failure and the magnitude of lab earthquakes. Our work showed that repetitive stick- slip failure events during frictional sliding (the lab equivalent of earthquakes) are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate energy in a manner that foretells unstable failure – manifest as laboratory MEQs. We documented a mapping between fracture properties and statistical attributes of elastic radiation. We extended existing works to geothermal reservoir scale and developed ML methods to determine reservoir permeability, fracture properties, and their evolution during geothermal energy production. An attractive feature of ML algorithms is their ability to handle big datasets and reveal patterns and correlations that may remain invisible to conventional analyses. Our work connected data from field, laboratory and intermediate scales to study permeability, stress, strength, fracture stiffness and geometry. At the field scale we used data from the Newberry Volcano field site, UtahFORGE, EGS Collab, and also the Bedretto underground research lab in Switzerland. These data sets are bridging the gap between the lab scale, theory, and reservoir scale. Our work produced plain language summaries to improve public understanding of DOE research. We also developed openly distributed ML and seismicity datasets for use by all researchers and we published connections between induced seismicity in geothermal areas and reservoir properties including permeability, fracture properties, and stress state. Our models are designed for the large data sets of induced seismicity typically associated with geothermal sites. We produced labeled event catalogs and used them on geothermal data to assess how ML can facilitate geothermal production and exploration. All datasets are available on the GDR Productivity: The project produced 32 publications in peer reviewed journals (two are in review). It supported the work of 6 PhD students, 40 conference presentations, 6 keynote talks at national meetings, and mentoring and professional development for 4 postdoctoral fellows.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of time-dependent deformation of shale on the integrity of a geological nuclear waste repository

Safety assessment of geological nuclear waste repositories is essential for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive waste. The long-term integrity of the host rock as well as the engineered barrier system (e.g., bentonite buffer) surrounding nuclear waste canisters is of particular importance as decay heat from nuclear waste canisters, which will last over thousands of years, significantly disturbs the thermo-hydromechanical (THM) state of the repository. In this study, THM coupled simulations were carried out to investigate the effect of time-dependent deformation (i.e., creep) of shale on the long-term integrity of a generic subsurface nuclear waste repository. The Norton-Bailey creep model, which is also known as the Lemaitre-Menzel-Schreiner model, was employed to simulate the power-law type creep that is observed in shales. The TOUGH-FLAC simulator was employed for the THM coupled modeling of the repository. The objective of this study is to assess the effect of creep in different shales (i.e., high creep shale vs. low creep shale) on long-term stress and permeability changes in the repository. Results show potential advantages of constructing repositories in the high creep shale, as deviatoric stress levels in the formation decreased to zero in 100 years since the emplacement of nuclear waste canisters and the permeability also decreased to the undamaged, intrinsic levels in 10,000 years. Also, mean effective stress levels in the bentonite buffer increased by 100% in the high creep shale case relative to the low creep shale case at 10,000 years due to creep-induced contraction of the nuclear waste disposal tunnel. However, in earlier periods (e.g., 1000 years), the stress levels in the bentonite buffer were twice smaller in the high creep shale case than in the low creep shale case, which shows a tradeoff between the intermediate- (~1000 years) and long-term (>10,000 years) compaction levels in the bentonite buffer depending on the creep characteristics of the host shale.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Intersections in Fracture Connectivity

Networks of intersecting fractures often provide the flow paths through subsurface reservoirs. Assessing network connectivity is challenging because fracture intersections compose a vanishingly small fraction of the network void volume. In this paper, motivated by 3D X-ray imaging of the simplest element of fracture network, that is, two orthogonal fractures, we perform a percolation and finite-size scaling analysis to study the connectivity provided by fracture intersections. The conditions when an intersection enhances connectivity across a sample depend on spatial correlations in the fracture aperture distributions, on the stress state, and on the direction of flow. Here we consider three flow directions: (a) across intersections, (b) parallel to intersections and (c) around corners. For (a), intersections provide minimal enhancement of connectivity because they contribute little additional void area. For (b), intersections increase the probability of a connected path near threshold by enabling 3D connected pathways that are not possible in parallel fractures. Flow around corners, (c), is fundamentally the result of the intersection connecting two fractures in series and spatial correlations are broken around corners, suppressing the connectivity relative to (a). When the connected fractures are stressed equally, a joint percolation threshold emerges that continues to have scale invariance. However, when the fractures are stressed unequally, the system has mixed percolation without clearly defined percolation thresholds. In all cases, percolation probabilities are found to be scale dependent which has important consequences for the connectivity of larger fracture networks composed of the fundamental element studied here.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deciphering atomistic mechanisms of the gas-solid interfacial reaction during alloy oxidation

Gas-solid interfacial reaction is critical to many technological applications from heterogeneous catalysis to stress corrosion cracking. A prominent question that remains unclear is how gas and solid interact beyond chemisorption to form a stable interphase for bridging subsequent gas-solid reactions. Here, we report real-time atomic-scale observations of Ni-Al alloy oxidation reaction from initial surface adsorption to interfacial reaction into the bulk. We found distinct atomistic mechanisms for oxide growth in O 2 and H 2 O vapor, featuring a “step-edge” mechanism with severe interfacial strain in O 2 , and a “subsurface” one in H 2 O. Ab initio density functional theory simulations rationalize the H 2 O dissociation to favor the formation of a disordered oxide, which promotes ion diffusion to the oxide-metal interface and leads to an eased interfacial strain, therefore enhancing inward oxidation. Our findings depict a complete pathway for the Ni-Al surface oxidation reaction and delineate the delicate coupling of chemomechanical effect on gas-solid interactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional Subsidence Analysis Through a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework Based on Breakage Mechanics

Although poroelastic models are often used to explain the delay between subsurface fluid depletion and ground subsidence, inelastic compaction involving permanent changes of rock microstructure may exacerbate hydro-mechanical coupling, thus influencing the interpretation of measurements and long-term forecasts. Here, a multi-scale modeling approach is discussed, which accounts for the inherent connection between rock microstructure, hydraulic conductivity, and pore compaction. A constitutive model built within the framework of breakage mechanics is proposed to link the hydraulic conductivity of granular rocks with inelastic deformations and changes in grading caused by injection-depletion cycles at stress levels far from yielding. The proposed model has been incorporated into large-scale simulation frameworks, thus enabling the spatiotemporal mapping of regional subsidence through a hybrid, semi-analytical approach. Numerical results based on this strategy show that the model allows isolating near-field and far-field effects into the computation of land subsidence and can generate forecasts for different modeling scenarios (e.g., elastic and inelastic compaction, constant permeability, and concurrent change of compressibility and permeability). In particular, examples of simulations for the case of the Groningen gas field are discussed, showing the model capabilities to use both field measurements and laboratory tests for the generation of reasonable subsidence maps, without expensive computational costs. Results indicate that ignoring coupled inelastic effects has major consequences on the predicted timescale of subsidence. Specifically, while all the model scenarios produced similar long-term ground settlements, those ignoring breakage-dependent permeability changes result in a variation of the temporal window of residual subsidence of the order of several decades.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards machine-learning a fully-coupled constitutive model for thermal-hydraulic fracture in geothermal systems: phase I (Final Report)

This project, entitled “Towards machine-learning a fully-coupled constitutive model for thermal-hydraulic fracture in geothermal systems: phase I,” addresses challenges in understanding and controlling subsurface fracture networks, which are crucial for applications like deep geothermal heat mining and deep-crustal minerals/metals/hydrogen extraction. The research focuses on advancing the understanding of coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geologic materials, particularly under the high temperature and pressure conditions found in the deep crust. This seed grant focused specifically on thermal cracking and the development of new constitutive models. Significant progress was made in both experimental and theoretical domains. To study micro-scale fracture formation, the project demonstrated the ability to create thermal cracking under stress in granite samples using a Paterson Gas-medium Deformation Apparatus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Creep fronts and complexity in laboratory earthquake sequences illuminate delayed earthquake triggering

Earthquakes occur in clusters or sequences that arise from complex triggering mechanisms, but direct measurement of the slow subsurface slip responsible for delayed triggering is rarely possible. We investigate the origins of complexity and its relationship to heterogeneity using an experimental fault with two dominant seismic asperities. The fault is composed of quartz powder, a material common to natural faults, sandwiched between 760 mm long polymer blocks that deform the way 10 meters of rock would behave. We observe periodic repeating earthquakes that transition into aperiodic and complex sequences of fast and slow events. Neighboring earthquakes communicate via migrating slow slip, which resembles creep fronts observed in numerical simulations and on tectonic faults. Utilizing both local stress measurements and numerical simulations, we observe that the speed and strength of creep fronts are highly sensitive to fault stress levels left behind by previous earthquakes, and may serve as on-fault stress meters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Synchrotron/crystal sample preparation

The Center for Applied Optics (CAO) of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) prepared this final report entitled 'Synchrotron/Crystal Sample Preparation' in completion of contract NAS8-38609, Delivery Order No. 53. Hughes Danbury Optical Systems (HDOS) is manufacturing the Advanced X-ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF) mirrors. These thin-walled, grazing incidence, Wolter Type-1 mirrors, varying in diameter from 1.2 to 0.68 meters, must be ground and polished using state-of-the-art techniques in order to prevent undue stress due to damage or the presence of crystals and inclusions. The effect of crystals on the polishing and grinding process must also be understood. This involves coating special samples of Zerodur and measuring the reflectivity of the coatings in a synchrotron system. In order to gain the understanding needed on the effect of the Zerodur crystals by the grinding and polishing process, UAH prepared glass samples by cutting, grinding, etching, and polishing as required to meet specifications for witness bars for synchrotron measurements and for investigations of crystals embedded in Zerodur. UAH then characterized these samples for subsurface damage and surface roughness and figure.

Johnson, R. Barry↗