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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Can Simple Metrics Identify the Process(es) Driving Extreme Precipitation?

This work seeks an automatic algorithm to determine the primary meteorological cause(s) of individual extreme precipitation events. Such determinations have been made before, but required a by-hand analysis of each separate event. This is very time-consuming and the field would benefit from an automatic process. This is especially relevant when comparing different datasets to determine which ones most closely hew towards reality. This paper tests three simple metrics over the continental United States using the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). The metrics tested measure and compare the strength of three meteorological processes associated with extreme precipitation: fronts, convection, and cyclones. A multivariate statistical technique as well as individual case studies show evidence that the three meteorological processes of interest cannot be isolated from one another using these simple physical metrics. This shows the difficulty in finding “pure” cases of these precipitation-generating processes and suggests approaching these processes with an eye toward mixed-type events.

Swenson, Leif M. (ORCID:0000000199708735)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Research Trends and Applications of PMUs

This work is a survey of current trends in applications of PMUs. PMUs have the potential to solve major problems in the areas of power system estimation, protection, and stability. A variety of methods are being used for these purposes, including statistical techniques, mathematical transformations, probability, and AI. The results produced by the techniques reviewed in this work are promising, but there is work to be performed in the context of implementation and standardization. As the smart grid initiative continues to advance, the number of intelligent devices monitoring the power grid continues to increase. PMUs are at the center of this initiative, and as a result, each year more PMUs are deployed across the grid. Since their introduction, myriad solutions based on PMU-technology have been suggested. The high sampling rates and synchronized measurements provided by PMUs are expected to drive significant advancements across multiple fields, such as the protection, estimation, and control of the power grid. This work offers a review of contemporary research trends and applications of PMU technology. Most solutions presented in this work were published in the last five years, and techniques showing potential for significant impact are highlighted in greater detail. Being a relatively new technology, there are several issues that must be addressed before PMU-based solutions can be successfully implemented. This survey found that key areas where improvements are needed include the establishment of PMU-observability, data processing algorithms, the handling of heterogeneous sampling rates, and the minimization of the investment in infrastructure for PMU communication. Solutions based on Bayesian estimation, as well as those having a distributed architectures, show great promise. The material presented in this document is tailored to both new researchers entering this field and experienced researchers wishing to become acquainted with emerging trends.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Decade of Sporadic Meteoroid Mass Distribution Indices in the Southern Hemisphere Derived from SAAMER’s Meteor Observations

We present determinations of the meteoroid differential mass index, s, using over a decade of meteor observations from the Southern Argentina Agile MEteor Radar (SAAMER). For this, we employ an autonomous statistical technique to determine this parameter from the measured radar echo amplitudes. Unlike previous studies, we examine the role of the system noise in the determination of this parameter and found that if not taken into account appropriately, the results can yield significant over estimations of the mass index. In general we found that a value of s = 2.0 represents SAAMER’s results in general agreement with recent studies performed in the northern hemisphere. We explore both the index interannual and seasonal variability and, unlike previous studies, we found them to be constant, except during the presence of the Southern δ Aquariids meteor shower which is so strong that it dominates the meteor counts when present. Our study suggests that using the maximum echo amplitude for these studies is not ideal as it can be biased by many factors which make the inaccuracies larger than the precision estimated by the fitting routine. A method that results in a more direct estimate of the electron line density would be required which takes into account range, gain pattern, system noise, etc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hubble WFC3 Spectroscopy of the Habitable-zone Super-Earth LHS 1140 b

Atmospheric characterization of temperate, rocky planets is the holy grail of exoplanet studies. These worlds are at the limits of our capabilities with current instrumentation in transmission spectroscopy and challenge our state-of-the-art statistical techniques. Here we present the transmission spectrum of the temperate super-Earth LHS 1140b using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) G141 grism data of this habitable-zone (T {sub eq} = 235 K) super-Earth (R = 1.7 R {sub ⊕}) shows tentative evidence of water. However, the signal-to-noise ratio, and thus the significance of the detection, is low and stellar contamination models can cause modulation over the spectral band probed. We attempt to correct for contamination using these models and find that, while many still lead to evidence for water, some could provide reasonable fits to the data without the need for molecular absorption although most of these cause features in the visible ground-based data which are nonphysical. Future observations with the James Webb Space Telescope would be capable of confirming, or refuting, this atmospheric detection.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Red Noise–based False Alarm Thresholds for Astrophysical Periodograms via Whittle’s Approximation to the Likelihood

Astronomers who search for periodic signals using Lomb–Scargle periodograms rely on false alarm level (FAL) estimates to identify statistically significant peaks. Although FALs are often calculated from white noise models, many astronomical time series suffer from red noise. Prewhitening is a statistical technique in which a continuum model is subtracted from the log power spectrum estimate, after which the observer can proceed with a white-noise treatment. Here we present a prewhitening-based method of calculating frequency-dependent FALs. We fit power laws and autoregressive models of order 1 to each Lomb–Scargle periodogram by minimizing the Whittle approximation to the negative log-likelihood (NLL), then calculate FALs based on the best-fit model power spectrum. Our technique is a novel extension of the Whittle NLL to datasets with uneven time sampling. We demonstrate FAL calculations using observations of α Cen B, GJ 581, HD 192310, synthetic data from the radial velocity (RV) fitting challenge, and Kepler observations of a differential rotator. The Kepler data analysis shows that only true rotation signals are detected by red noise FALs, while white noise FALs suggest all spurious peaks in the low-frequency range are significant. A high-frequency sinusoid injected into α Cen B logR$'$ HK observations exceeds the 1% red noise FAL despite having only 8.9% of the power of the dominant rotation signal. In a periodogram of HD 192310 RVs, peaks associated with differential rotation and planets are detected against the 5% red noise FAL without iterative model fitting or subtraction. The software for calculating red noise–based FALs is available on GitHub.

Astrostatistics (1882)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Insights on the Spectral Signatures of Stellar Activity and Planets from PCA

Photospheric velocities and stellar activity features such as spots and faculae produce measurable radial velocity signals that currently obscure the detection of sub-meter-per-second planetary signals. However, photospheric velocities are imprinted differently in a high-resolution spectrum than are Keplerian Doppler shifts. Photospheric activity produces subtle differences in the shapes of absorption lines due to differences in how temperature or pressure affects the atomic transitions. In contrast, Keplerian Doppler shifts affect every spectral line in the same way. With a high enough signal-to-noise (S/N) and resolution, statistical techniques can exploit differences in spectra to disentangle the photospheric velocities and detect lower-amplitude exoplanet signals. We use simulated disk-integrated time-series spectra and principal component analysis (PCA) to show that photospheric signals introduce spectral line variability that is distinct from that of Doppler shifts. We quantify the impact of instrumental resolution and S/N for this work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SDSS J1058+5443: A Blue Quasar without Optical/NUV Broad Emission Lines

In this paper, the blue quasar SDSS J105816.19+544310.2 (=SDSS J1058+5443) at redshift 0.479 has been reported as the best true type 2 quasar candidate with the disappearance of central broad-line regions. There are no definite conclusions on the very existence of true type 2 active galactic nuclei (AGN), mainly due to detected optical broad emission lines in high-quality spectra of some previously classified true type 2 AGN candidates. Here, unlike previously reported true type 2 AGN candidates among narrow emission-line galaxies with weak AGN activities but strong stellar lights, the definitely blue quasar SDSS J1058+5443 can be well confirmed as a true type 2 quasar due to apparent quasar-shape blue continuum emissions but an apparent loss of both the optical broad Balmer emission lines and the near-UV (NUV) broad Mg II emission line. Based on different model functions and the F-test statistical technique, after considering blueshifted optical and UV Fe II emissions, there are no apparent broad optical Balmer emission lines and/or broad NUV Mg II lines, and the confidence level is smaller than 1σ in support of broad optical and NUV emission lines. Moreover, assuming the virialization assumption to broad-line emission clouds, the reconstructed broad emission lines strongly indicate that the probable intrinsic broad emission lines, if they exist, cannot be hidden or overwhelmed in the noise of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectrum of SDSS J1058+5443. Therefore, SDSS J1058+5443 is so far the best and most robust true type 2 quasar candidate, leading to the clear conclusion of the very existence of true type 2 AGN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Improved identification of primary biological aerosol particles using single-particle mass spectrometry

Measurements of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP), especially at altitudes relevant to cloud formation, are scarce. Single-particle mass spectrometry (SPMS) has been used to probe aerosol chemical composition from ground and aircraft for over 20 years. Here we develop a method for identifying bioaerosols (PBAP and particles containing fragments of PBAP as part of an internal mixture) using SPMS. We show that identification of bioaerosol using SPMS is complicated because phosphorus-bearing mineral dust and phosphorus-rich combustion by-products such as fly ash produce mass spectra with peaks similar to those typically used as markers for bioaerosol. We have developed a methodology to differentiate and identify bioaerosol using machine learning statistical techniques applied to mass spectra of known particle types. This improved method provides far fewer false positives compared to approaches reported in the literature. The new method was then applied to two sets of ambient data collected at Storm Peak Laboratory and a forested site in Central Valley, California to show that 0.04–2 % of particles in the 200–3000 nm aerodynamic diameter range were identified as bioaerosol. In addition, 36–56 % of particles identified as biological also contained spectral features consistent with mineral dust, suggesting internal dust–biological mixtures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1968

Study of optimum discrete estimators in measurement analysis

Study of statistical techniques for obtaining estimates of true data parameters uses discrete measured quantities containing random error. These techniques develop estimation procedures as an iterative algorithm for digital computation in real time.

Hung, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Estimating trajectory correction requirements for multiple outer planet missions.

General approach to the problem of estimating trajectory correction requirements for multiple outer planet flyby missions when the navigation system uses onboard optical measurements made during approach to each target planet to complement the ground-based radio measurements. The accuracy and reliability of the onboard measurement system plays a critical role in sizing the trajectory correction capability required. An illustration of the combined use of radio and optical measurements is provided for the particular case of a Jupiter-Uranus-Neptune mission. Use of the statistical technique developed for computing the trajectory correction margin required to account for uncertainties in subsystem performance, permits trajectory correction savings of 100 to 20 m/sec over 'worst case' designs. This represents weight savings of about 50% of the science payload. For the example case trajectory correction requirements are estimated for two candidate optical systems and the radio alone case. The use of onboard measurements allows a trajectory correction savings of approximately 140 m/sec.

Friedman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition, volume 1

The performance requirements, preliminary designs, and development program plans for an airborne recovery system for the space shuttle solid rocket booster are discussed. The analyses performed during the study phase of the program are presented. The basic considerations which established the system configuration are defined. A Monte Carlo statistical technique using random sampling of the probability distribution for the critical water impact parameters was used to determine the failure probability of each solid rocket booster component as functions of impact velocity and component strength capability.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1974

Fore and aft elastic response characteristics of 34 x 9.9, type 7, 14 ply-rating aircraft tires of bias-ply, bias-belted, and radial-belted design

An investigation was conducted to determine the fore-and-aft elastic response characteristics of 34 x 9.9, type VII, 14 ply-rating aircraft tires of bias-ply, bias-belted, and radial-belted design. The investigation consisted of static and rolling tests on dry concrete pavements at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility; statistical techniques which related the measured tire elastic characteristics to variations in the vertical load, inflation pressure, braking force and/or tire vertical deflection; and a semiempirical analysis which related the tire elastic behavior to measured wheel slippage during steady-state braking. The bias-belted tire developed the largest spring constant value for most loading conditions; the radial-belted tire, the smallest. The elastic response of the tire free periphery to static braking included both tread stretch and carcass torsional wind-up about the axle for the bias-ply and bias-belted tires and carcass wind-up alone for the radial-belted tire.

Tanner, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1974

On evaluating compliance with air pollution levels 'not to be exceeded more than once per year'

The point of view taken is that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality Standards (AQS) represent conditions which must be made to exist in the ambient environment. The statistical techniques developed should serve as tools for measuring the closeness to achieving the desired quality of air. It is shown that the sampling frequency recommended by EPA is inadequate to meet these objectives when the standard is expressed as a level not to be exceeded more than once per year and sampling frequency is once every three days or less frequent.

Neustadter, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Cosmic ray composition measurements and high energy ionization spectrometers

Element abundances of cosmic rays Li through Si with energy above 0.8 GeV/amu were measured on a balloon borne instrument containing a total absorption ionization spectrometer. Statistical techniques were used to analyze the five measurements of each particle to determine its charge and energy. The technique allows a determination of systematic errors to be made. Corrections for Landau fluctuations, spark chamber inefficiency, and background particles were included. Comparison with other published results is made. Differences in the shape of the spectrum determined from measurements of different workers indicate that the absolute intensity is still known to only plus or minus 15% between 2 and 10 GV/c rigidity.

Arens, J. F.↗