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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Database-wide hazard modelling of the onset of DIII-D tearing modes with field features

The rate of onset (hazard) of tearing modes is modelled probabilistically using statistical learning algorithms. Axisymmetric energy-density equilibrium fields are taken as raw high-dimensional input features which are reduced with principal component analysis. Signal processing of non-axisymmetric magnetics fluctuation array data provides the target information from which to learn. Model selection, visualization and calibration assessment procedures are detailed. Here, the analysis is deployed at large scale across the DIII-D tokamak database. Standard model selection criteria suggest that the energy-density post-processed feature is a better choice for modelling the onset rate compared to the non-processed equilibrium reconstruction solution. Two example applications of the learned rate function are demonstrated: (i) proximity-to-onset discharge monitoring and (ii) database analysis showing an (expected) observational global trend that the general hazard increases as a plasma performance metric increases. An important connection between the hazard function and its use as a conditional probability generator is reviewed in the Appendix.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamics in a stellar convective layer and at its boundary: Comparison of five 3D hydrodynamics codes

Our ability to predict the structure and evolution of stars is in part limited by complex, 3D hydrodynamic processes such as convective boundary mixing. Hydrodynamic simulations help us understand the dynamics of stellar convection and convective boundaries. However, the codes used to compute such simulations are usually tested on extremely simple problems and the reliability and reproducibility of their predictions for turbulent flows is unclear. We define a test problem involving turbulent convection in a plane-parallel box, which leads to mass entrainment from, and internal-wave generation in, a stably stratified layer. We compare the outputs from the codes FLASH, MUSIC, PPMSTAR, PROMPI, and SLH, which have been widely employed to study hydrodynamic problems in stellar interiors. The convection is dominated by the largest scales that fit into the simulation box. All time-averaged profiles of velocity components, fluctuation amplitudes, and fluxes of enthalpy and kinetic energy are within ≲3σ of the mean of all simulations on a given grid (128 3 and 256 3 grid cells), where σ describes the statistical variation due to the flow’s time dependence. They also agree well with a 512 3 reference run. The 128 3 and 256 3 simulations agree within 9% and 4%, respectively, on the total mass entrained into the convective layer. The entrainment rate appears to be set by the amount of energy that can be converted to work in our setup and details of the small-scale flows in the boundary layer seem to be largely irrelevant. Our results lend credence to hydrodynamic simulations of flows in stellar interiors. We provide in electronic form all outputs of our simulations as well as all information needed to reproduce or extend our study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theory of capillary tension and interfacial dynamics of motility-induced phases

The statistical mechanics of equilibrium interfaces has been well-established for over a half century. In the past decade, a wealth of observations have made increasingly clear that a new perspective is required to describe interfaces arbitrarily far from equilibrium. In this work, beginning from microscopic particle dynamics that break time-reversal symmetry, we derive the linear interfacial dynamics of coexisting motility-induced phases. Doing so allows us to identify the athermal energy scale that excites interfacial fluctuations and the nonequilibrium surface tension that resists these excitations. Our theory identifies that, in contrast to equilibrium fluids, this active surface tension contains contributions arising from nonconservative forces which act to suppress interfacial fluctuations and, crucially, is distinct from the mechanical surface tension of Kirkwood and Buff. Here we find that the interfacial stiffness scales linearly with the intrinsic persistence length of the constituent active particle trajectories, in agreement with simulation data. We demonstrate that at wavelengths much larger than the persistence length, the interface obeys surface-area minimizing Boltzmann statistics with our derived nonequilibrium interfacial stiffness playing a role identical to that of equilibrium systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Finite Bubble Statistics Constrain Late Cosmological Phase Transitions

We consider first order cosmological phase transitions (PTs) happening at late times below standard model temperatures T PT ≲ GeV. The inherently stochastic nature of bubble nucleation and the finite number of bubbles associated with a late-time PT lead to superhorizon fluctuations in the PT completion time. We compute how such fluctuations eventually source curvature fluctuations with universal properties, independent of the microphysics of the PT dynamics. Using cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large scale structure measurements, we constrain the energy released in a dark-sector PT. For 0.1 eV ≲ T PT ≲ keV this constraint is stronger than both the current bound from additional neutrino species Δ⁢N eff , and in some cases, even CMB-S4 projections. Future measurements of CMB spectral distortions and pulsar timing arrays will also provide competitive sensitivity for keV ≲ T PT ≲ GeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Megadrought: A Series of Unfortunate La Niña Events?

Megadroughts are multidecadal periods of aridity more persistent than most droughts during the instrumental period. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that megadroughts occur in many parts of the world, including North America, Central America, western Europe, eastern Asia, and northern Africa. It remains unclear to what extent such megadroughts require external forcing or whether they can arise from internal climate variability alone. A novel statistical–dynamical approach is used to evaluate the possibility that such events arise solely as a function of interannual tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations. A statistical emulator of tropical SST variations is constructed by using an empirical moving-blocks bootstrap approach that randomly samples multiyear sequences of the observational SST record. This approach preserves the power spectrum, seasonal cycle, and spatial pattern of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but removes longer timescale fluctuations embedded in the observational record. These resampled SST anomalies are then used to force an atmospheric model (the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5). As megadroughts emerge in this run, they should, therefore, be solely a consequence of La Niña sequences combined with internal atmospheric variability and persistence driven by soil moisture storage and other land-surface processes. We indeed find that megadroughts in this simulation have an amplitude-duration rate that is generally indistinguishable from the rate documented in paleoclimate records of the western United States. Our findings support the idea that megadroughts may occur randomly when the unforced climate system evolves freely over a sufficiently long period of time, implying that an unforced unusual but statistically plausible series of La Niña events may be sufficient to generate megadrought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

What controls the interannual variation of Hadley cell extent in the Northern Hemisphere: physical mechanism and empirical model for edge variation

Abstract The Hadley circulation is the most prominent atmospheric meridional circulation, reducing the radiatively driven equator-to-pole temperature gradient. While the Hadley cell extent varies by several degrees from year to year, the detailed dynamical mechanisms behind such variations have not been well elucidated. During the expanded phase of the Hadley cell, many regions on the periphery of the subtropics experience unfavorable climatic conditions. In this study, using ERA5 reanalysis data, we examine the physical chain of events responsible for the interannual variation of the Hadley cell edge (HCE) latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. This variation is mainly caused by changing eddy activity and wave breaking from both stationary and transient waves. In particular, we show that transient waves cause the HCE to shift poleward by increasing the eddy momentum flux divergence (EMFD) and reducing the baroclinicity over 20°–40°N, shifting the region of peak baroclinicity poleward. El Niño/La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for a significant portion (60%) of the interannual fluctuation of the HCE latitude. Through the poleward displacement of eddy activity, La Niña and a positive AO state are associated with the poleward shift of the HCE. The analysis of 28 CMIP5 models reveals statistical relationships between EMFD, vertical shear, and HCE latitude similar to those observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anti-site defect-induced disorder in compensated topological magnet MnBi2-xSbxTe4

Abstract The gapped Dirac-like surface states of compensated magnetic topological insulator MnBi 2-x Sb x Te 4 (MBST) are a promising host for exotic quantum phenomena such as the quantum anomalous Hall effect and axion insulating state. However, it has become clear that atomic defects undermine the stabilization of such quantum phases as they lead to spatial variations in the surface state gap and doping levels. The large number of possible defect configurations in MBST make studying the influence of individual defects virtually impossible. Here, we present a statistical analysis of the nanoscale effect of defects in MBST with x =0.64, by scanning tunnelling microscopy/spectroscopy. We identify (Bi,Sb) Mn anti-site defects to be the main source of the observed doping fluctuations, leading towards the formation of nanoscale charge puddles and effectively closing the transport gap. Our findings will guide further optimization of this material system via defect engineering, to enable exploitation of its promising properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parametric and Nonparametric Models of U.S. Cost Overruns for Nuclear Power Plants

This study presents new data-driven models to estimate the effect of capacity on the percentage of cost overruns in the United States for nuclear power plant construction projects before and after the Three Mile Island accident. Parametric and nonparametric models have been developed that describe the significant shifts in nuclear energy costs during the dynamic environment. Employing a contemporary descriptive methodology and a quantitative analysis, we furnish a comprehensive overview of the alterations in cost overrun distribution and show the changes observed in other pivotal metrics alongside cost overruns. Our emphasis lies in documenting the fluctuations in cost overruns alongside nuclear reactor capacity levels and the increase of the overnight capital costs to build nuclear reactors. Our results show that increasing the size of nuclear reactors is not a factor statistically significant to decrease the percentage of cost overruns, and the probit model results provide evidence that an increase in size increases the probability of having cost overruns larger than 100% (double the estimated cost). We also compare our findings to two other regions: Asia and Europe.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel methodology for gamma-ray spectra dataset procurement over varying standoff distances and source activities

The adoption of machine learning approaches for gamma-ray spectroscopy has received considerable attention in the literature. Many studies have investigated the deployment of various algorithm architectures to a specific task. However, little attention has been afforded to the development of the datasets leveraged to train the models. Such training datasets typically span a set of environmental or detector parameters to encompass a problem space of interest to a user. Variations in these measurement parameters will also induce fluctuations in the detector response, including expected pile-up and ground scatter effects. Fundamental to this work is the understanding that 1) the underlying spectral shape varies as the measurement parameters change and 2) the statistical uncertainties associated with two spectra impact their level of similarity. While previous studies attribute some arbitrary discretization to the measurement parameters for the generation of their synthetic training data, this work introduces a principled methodology for efficient spectral-based discretization of a problem space. A signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) respective spectral comparison measure and a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model are used to predict the spectral similarity across a range of measurement parameters. This innovative approach effectively showcased its capability by dividing a problem space, ranging from 5 cm to 100 cm standoff distances and 5 μCi–100 μCi of 137 Cs, into three unique combinations of measurement parameters. The findings from this work will aid in creating more robust datasets, which incorporate many possible measurement scenarios, reduce the number of required experimental test set measurements, and possibly enable experimental training data collection for gamma-ray spectroscopy.

data science↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lagrangian conditional statistics and flow topology in edge plasma turbulence

Lagrangian statistics and particle transport in edge plasma turbulence are investigated using the Hasegawa–Wakatani model and its modified version. The latter shows the emergence of pronounced zonal flows. Different values of the adiabaticity parameter are considered. The main goal is to characterize the role of coherent structures, i.e., vortices and zonal flows, and their impact on the Lagrangian statistics of particles. Computationally intensive long time simulations following ensembles of test particles over hundreds of eddy turnover times are considered in statistically stationary turbulent flows. The flow topology is characterized using the Lagrangian Okubo–Weiss criterion in order to split the flow into topologically different domains. In elliptic and hyperbolic regions, the probability density functions (PDFs) of the residence time have self-similar algebraic decaying tails. However, in the intermediate regions, the PDFs exhibit exponentially decaying tails. Topologically conditioned PDFs of the Lagrangian velocity, and acceleration and density fluctuations are likewise computed. The differences between the classical Hasegawa–Wakatani system and its modified version are assessed, and the role of zonal flows is highlighted. Here, the density flux spectrum, which characterizes the contributions of different length scales, is studied, and its inertial scaling is found to be in agreement with predictions based on dimensional arguments. Analyzing the angular change of particle tracers at different time scales, corresponding to coarse grained curvature, completes the study, and these multiscale geometric statistics quantify the directional properties of the particle motion in different flow regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamically consistent incorporation of the Langmuir adsorption model into compressible fluctuating hydrodynamics

For a gas–solid interfacial system where chemical species undergo reversible adsorption, we develop a mesoscopic stochastic modeling method that simulates both gas-phase hydrodynamics and surface coverage dynamics by coupling the Langmuir adsorption model with compressible fluctuating hydrodynamics. To this end, we derive a thermodynamically consistent mass–energy update scheme that accounts for how the mass and energy variables in the gas and surface subsystems should be updated according to the changes in the number of molecules of each species in each subsystem due to adsorption and desorption events. By performing a stochastic analysis for the ideal Langmuir model and the full hydrodynamic system, we analytically confirm that our mass–energy update scheme captures thermodynamic equilibrium predicted by equilibrium statistical mechanics. We find that an internal energy correction term is needed, which is attributed to the difference in the mean kinetic energy of gas molecules colliding with the surface from that computed from the Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution. By performing an equilibrium simulation study for an ideal gas mixture of CO and Ar, with CO undergoing reversible adsorption, we validate our overall simulation method and implementation.

Adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results

We analyse the Planck full-mission cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and E -mode polarization maps to obtain constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (NG). We compare estimates obtained from separable template-fitting, binned, and optimal modal bispectrum estimators, finding consistent values for the local, equilateral, and orthogonal bispectrum amplitudes. Our combined temperature and polarization analysis produces the following final results: f NL local = -0.9 ± 5.1; f NL equil = -26 ± 47; and f NL ortho = -38 ± 24 (68% CL, statistical). These results include low-multipole (4 ≤ ℓ < 40) polarization data that are not included in our previous analysis. The results also pass an extensive battery of tests (with additional tests regarding foreground residuals compared to 2015), and they are stable with respect to our 2015 measurements (with small fluctuations, at the level of a fraction of a standard deviation, which is consistent with changes in data processing). Polarization-only bispectra display a significant improvement in robustness; they can now be used independently to set primordial NG constraints with a sensitivity comparable to WMAP temperature-based results and they give excellent agreement. In addition to the analysis of the standard local, equilateral, and orthogonal bispectrum shapes, we consider a large number of additional cases, such as scale-dependent feature and resonance bispectra, isocurvature primordial NG, and parity-breaking models, where we also place tight constraints but do not detect any signal. The non-primordial lensing bispectrum is, however, detected with an improved significance compared to 2015, excluding the null hypothesis at 3.5 σ . Beyond estimates of individual shape amplitudes, we also present model-independent reconstructions and analyses of the Planck CMB bispectrum. Our final constraint on the local primordial trispectrum shape is g NL local = (-5.8 ± 6.5) × 10 4 (68% CL, statistical), while constraints for other trispectrum shapes are also determined. Exploiting the tight limits on various bispectrum and trispectrum shapes, we constrain the parameter space of different early-Universe scenarios that generate primordial NG, including general single-field models of inflation, multi-field models (e.g. curvaton models), models of inflation with axion fields producing parity-violation bispectra in the tensor sector, and inflationary models involving vector-like fields with directionally-dependent bispectra. Our results provide a high-precision test for structure-formation scenarios, showing complete agreement with the basic picture of the ΛCDM cosmology regarding the statistics of the initial conditions, with cosmic structures arising from adiabatic, passive, Gaussian, and primordial seed perturbations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chain trajectories, domain shapes, and terminal boundaries in block copolymers

The packing geometry of macromolecules in complex mesophases is of key importance to self-organization in synthetic and biological soft materials. While approximate or heuristic models rely on often-untested assumptions about how flexible molecules “fit in” to distinct locations of complex assemblies, physical assemblies derive from ensembles of fluctuating conformations, obscuring the connection between mesophase geometry and the underlying arrangements. Here, we present an approach to extract and analyze features of molecular packing in diblock block copolymer (BCP) melts, a prototypical soft matter system, based on the statistical description of chain conformations in self-consistent field (SCF) theory. We show how average BCP chain trajectories in ordered morphologies can be analyzed from the SCF-derived orientational order parameter of chain segments. We use these extracted trajectories to analyze the features of local packing geometry, including chain bending and tilt, as well as the terminal boundaries that delineate distinct domains in ordered BCP morphologies. In conclusion, we illustrate this analysis by focusing on measurable features of packing frustration in 2D (columnar) and 3D (spherical and bicontinuous) morphologies, notably establishing an explicit link between chain conformations in complex morphologies and their medial geometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurements of Proton High-Order Cumulants in s N N = 3 GeV Au + Au Collisions and Implications for the QCD Critical Point

We report cumulants of the proton multiplicity distribution from dedicated fixed-target Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 3.0 GeV , measured by the STAR experiment in the kinematic acceptance of rapidity ( y ) and transverse momentum ( p T ) within - 0.5 < y < 0 and 0.4 < pT < 2.0 GeV / c . In the most central 0%–5% collisions, a proton cumulant ratio is measured to be C 4 / C 2 = - 0.85 ± 0.09 ( stat ) ± 0.82 ( syst ) , which is 2 σ below the Poisson baseline with respect to both the statistical and systematic uncertainties. The hadronic transport UrQMD model reproduces our C 4 / C 2 in the measured acceptance. Compared to higher energy results and the transport model calculations, the suppression in C 4 / C 2 is consistent with fluctuations driven by baryon number conservation and indicates an energy regime dominated by hadronic interactions. These data imply that the QCD critical region, if created in heavy-ion collisions, could only exist at energies higher than 3 GeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular-gas-dynamics simulations of turbulent Couette flow over a mean-free-path-scale permeable substrate

Here we report flow statistics and visualizations from molecular-gas-dynamics simulations using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for turbulent Couette flow in a minimal domain where the lower wall is replaced by an idealized permeable fibrous substrate representative of thermal-protection-system materials for which the Knudsen number is O(10 -1 ). Comparisons are made with smooth-wall DSMC simulations and smooth-wall direct numerical simulations (DNS) of the Navier-Stokes equations for the same conditions. Roughness, permeability, and noncontinuum effects are assessed. In the range of Reynolds numbers considered herein, the scalings of the skin friction on the permeable substrate and of the mean flow within the substrate suggest that they are dominated by viscous effects. While the regenerative cycle characteristic of smooth-wall turbulence remains intact for all cases considered, we observe that the near-wall velocity fluctuations are modulated by the permeable substrate with a wavelength equal to the pore spacing. Additionally, the flow within the substrate shows significant rarefaction effects, resulting in an apparent permeability that is 13% larger than the intrinsic permeability. In contrast, the smooth-wall DSMC and DNS simulations exhibit remarkably good agreement for the statistics examined, despite the Knudsen number based on the viscous length scale being as large as O(10 -1 ). This latter result is at variance with classical estimates for the breakdown of the continuum assumption and calls for further investigations into the interaction of noncontinuum effects and turbulence.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Light-nuclei production and search for the QCD critical point

We discuss the potential of light-nuclei measurements in heavy-ion collisions at intermediate energies for the search of the hypothetical QCD critical end-point. A previous proposal based on neutron density fluctuations has brought appealing experimental evidences of a maximum in the ratio of the number of tritons times protons, divided over deuterons square, $\mathcal{O}_{tpd}$. However these results are difficult to reconcile with the state-of-the-art statistical thermal model predictions. Based on the idea that the QCD critical point can lead to a substantial attraction among nucleons, we propose new light-nuclei multiplicity ratios involving 4 He in which the maximum would be more noticeable. We argue that the experimental extraction is feasible by presenting these ratios formed from actual measurements of total and differential yields at low and high collision energies from FOPI and ALICE experiments, respectively. We also illustrate the possible behavior of these ratios at intermediate energies applying a semiclassical method based on flucton paths using the preliminary NA49 and STAR data for $\mathcal{O}_{tpd}$ as input.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗