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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Online Multi-Modal Learning and Adaptive Information Trajectory Planning for Autonomous Exploration

In robotic information gathering missions, scientists are typically interested in understanding variables which require proxy measurements from specialized sensor suites to estimate. However, energy and time constraints limit how often these sensors can be used in a mission. Robots are also equipped with cheaper to use navigation sensors such as cameras. In this paper, we explore a challenging planning problem in which a robot is required to learn about a scientific variable of interest in an initially unknown environment by planning informative paths and deciding when and where to use its sensors. To tackle this we present two innovations: a Bayesian generative model framework to automatically learn correlations between expensive science sensors and cheaper to use navigation sensors online, and a sampling based approach to plan for multiple sensors while handling long horizons and budget constraints. Our approach does not grow in complexity with data and is anytime making it highly applicable to field robotics. We tested our approach extensively in simulation and validated it with real data collected during the 2014 Mojave Volatiles Prospector Mission. Our planning algorithm performs statistically significantly better than myopic approaches and at least as well as a coverage-based algorithm in an initially unknown environment while having added advantages of being able to exploit prior knowledge and handle other intricacies of the real world without further algorithmic modifications.

learning↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Gaseous Content of the Universe at Zeta less than 1.6

Together with graduate student Hsiao-Wen Chen, I have measured and analyzed structural and morphological parameters of 38 galaxies in eight fields for which sensitive measurements of corresponding Ly(alpha) absorption toward background QSOs are available. These measurements are based on Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) observations obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and provide a first look at how the incidence and extent of tenuous gas around galaxies depends on galaxy luminosity, size, and morphological type and on geometry of the impact. The primary result of the analysis is that the amount of gas encountered along the line of sight depends on the galaxy impact parameter and B-band luminosity but does not depend strongly on the galaxy average surface brightness, disk-to-bulge ratio, or redshift. This result confirms and improves upon an anti-correlation between Ly(alpha) absorption equivalent width and galaxy impact parameter found previously. More importantly, this result provides the first quantitative means of relating statistics of faint galaxies to statistics of Ly(alpha) absorption systems. which we plan to exploit to constrain the luminosity function of galaxies beyond the realm of current surveys. Results have been submitted for publication and will greatly improve our statistical conclusions . Together with graduate student Noriaki Yahata. I have measured and classified spectral properties of over 1000 faint galaxies and stars obtained in our low-resolution spectroscopic survey. The goal of this project is two-fold: (1) to exhaustively characterize the spectral properties of all faint galaxies that comprise our current survey, and (2) to gain experience with our measurement and classification code. which ultimately will be used on a data base of 20,000 galaxies to be obtained with the Two-Degree Field (2df) spectrograph at the Anglo-Australian Telescope (AAT). The results will ultimately be used for many goals, but so far we have concentrated on using the results to make a binary classification of the galaxies (i.e. early type versus late type) and to then exploit the density-morphology relationship to obtain a crude density indicator. The primary result of the analysis is that the incidence and extent of tenuous gas around galaxies shows no strong preference for local galaxy environment, at least over the range of densities spanned by the current observations. Along similar lines, two instances of Ly(alpha) absorption lines that arise in groups or clusters were examined. Analysis demonstrates that some can produce corresponding absorption lines and that LY(alpha) absorption lines do not avoid a high-density environment. A new measure of the galaxy-absorber cross-correlation function defines the statistical criterion by which galaxies and absorber pairs are to be matched. I have identified a damped Ly(alpha) absorption system at redshift z equals approximately 0.16, the lowest redshift confirmed to date. The most important results of the analysis are learning that the metal abundances of the absorption system are less than 10 percent of the solar metal abundance and that the absorbing gas is not rotating with the galaxy disk.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

Exploring Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 diversity for Flood inundation mapping using deep learning

Identification of flood water extent from satellite images has historically relied on either synthetic aperture radar (SAR) or multi-spectral (MS) imagery. MS sensors are limited to cloud free conditions, whereas SAR imagery is plagued by noise-like speckle. Prior studies that use combinations of MS and SAR data to overcome individual limitations of these sensors have not fully examined sensitivity of flood mapping performance to different combinations of SAR and MS derived spectral indices or band transformations in color space. This study explores the use of diverse bands of Sentinel 2 (S2) through well-established water indices and Sentinel 1 (S1) derived SAR imagery along with their combinations to assess their capability for generating accurate flood inundation maps. The robustness in performance of S-1 and S-2 band combinations was evaluated using 446 hand labeled flood inundation images spanning across 11 flood events from Sen1Floods11 dataset which are highly diverse in terms of land cover as well as location. A modified K-fold cross validation approach is used to evaluate the performance of 32 combinations of S1 and S2 bands using a fully connected deep convolutional neural network known as U-Net. Our results indicated that usage of elevation information has improved the capability of S1 imagery to produce more accurate flood inundation maps. Compared to a median F1 score of 0.62 when using only S1 bands, the combined use of S1 and elevation information led to an improved median F1 score of 0.73. Water extraction indices based on S2 bands have a statistically significant superior performance in comparison to S1. Among all the band combinations, HSV (Hue, Saturation, Value) transformation of S2 bands provides a median F1 score of 0.9, outperforming the commonly used water spectral indices owing to HSV’s transformation’s superior contrast distinguishing abilities. Additionally, U-Net algorithm was able to learn the relationship between raw S2 based water extraction indices and their corresponding raw S2 bands, but not of HSV owing to relatively complex computation involved in the latter. Results of the paper establishes important benchmarks for the extension of S1 and S2 data-based flood inundation mapping efforts over large spatial extents.

Goutam Konapala↗
NASA NTRS1989

Optimal selection of space transportation fleet to meet multi-mission space program needs

A space program that spans several decades will be comprised of a collection of missions such as low earth orbital space station, a polar platform, geosynchronous space station, lunar base, Mars astronaut mission, and Mars base. The optimal selection of a fleet of several recoverable and expendable launch vehicles, upper stages, and interplanetary spacecraft necessary to logistically establish and support these space missions can be examined by means of a linear integer programming optimization model. Such a selection must be made because the economies of scale which comes from producing large quantities of a few standard vehicle types, rather than many, will be needed to provide learning curve effects to reduce the overall cost of space transportation if these future missions are to be affordable. Optimization model inputs come from data and from vehicle designs. Each launch vehicle currently in existence has a launch history, giving rise to statistical estimates of launch reliability. For future, not-yet-developed launch vehicles, theoretical reliabilities corresponding to the maturity of the launch vehicles' technology and the degree of design redundancy must be estimated. Also, each such launch vehicle has a certain historical or estimated development cost, tooling cost, and a variable cost. The cost of a launch used in this paper includes the variable cost plus an amortized portion of the fixed and development costs. The integer linear programming model will have several constraint equations based on assumptions of mission mass requirements, volume requirements, and number of astronauts needed. The model will minimize launch vehicle logistic support cost and will select the most desirable launch vehicle fleet.

Morgenthaler, George W.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Attitude determination using an adaptive multiple model filtering Scheme

Attitude determination has been considered as a permanent topic of active research and perhaps remaining as a forever-lasting interest for spacecraft system designers. Its role is to provide a reference for controls such as pointing the directional antennas or solar panels, stabilizing the spacecraft or maneuvering the spacecraft to a new orbit. Least Square Estimation (LSE) technique was utilized to provide attitude determination for the Nimbus 6 and G. Despite its poor performance (estimation accuracy consideration), LSE was considered as an effective and practical approach to meet the urgent need and requirement back in the 70's. One reason for this poor performance associated with the LSE scheme is the lack of dynamic filtering or 'compensation'. In other words, the scheme is based totally on the measurements and no attempts were made to model the dynamic equations of motion of the spacecraft. We propose an adaptive filtering approach which employs a bank of Kalman filters to perform robust attitude estimation. The proposed approach, whose architecture is depicted, is essentially based on the latest proof on the interactive multiple model design framework to handle the unknown of the system noise characteristics or statistics. The concept fundamentally employs a bank of Kalman filter or submodel, instead of using fixed values for the system noise statistics for each submodel (per operating condition) as the traditional multiple model approach does, we use an on-line dynamic system noise identifier to 'identify' the system noise level (statistics) and update the filter noise statistics using 'live' information from the sensor model. The advanced noise identifier, whose architecture is also shown, is implemented using an advanced system identifier. To insure the robust performance for the proposed advanced system identifier, it is also further reinforced by a learning system which is implemented (in the outer loop) using neural networks to identify other unknown quantities such as spacecraft dynamics parameters, gyro biases, dynamic disturbances, or environment variations.

Lam, Quang↗
NASA NTRS1997

Performance Data Gathering and Representation from Fixed-Size Statistical Data

The two commonly-used performance data types in the super-computing community, statistics and event traces, are discussed and compared. Statistical data are much more compact but lack the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, are unbounded and can easily fill up the entire file system during program execution. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. Two basic ideas are employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and 'formulae' to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. The user can trade off tracing overhead, trace data size with data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace data collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using space-time views. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected with event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, indeed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution, and that the quality of the space-time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at runtime to learn longer sequences.

Yan, Jerry C.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Combining Machine Learning and Numerical Simulation for High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentration Forecast

Forecasting ambient PM2.5 concentrations with spatiotemporal coverage is key to alerting decision-makers of pollution episodes and preventing detrimental public exposure, especially in regions with limited ground air monitoring stations. The existing methods either rely on chemical transport models (CTMs) to forecast spatial distribution of PM2.5 with nontrivial uncertainty or statistical algorithms to forecast PM2.5 concentration time-series at air monitoring locations without continuous spatial coverage. In this study, we developed a PM2.5 forecast framework by combining the robust Random Forest algorithm with a publicly accessible global CTM forecast product – NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System “Composition Forecasting” (GEOS-CF), providing spatiotemporally continuous PM2.5 concentration forecasts for the next five days at a 1-km spatial resolution. Our forecast experiment was conducted for a region in Central China including the populous and polluted Fenwei Plain. The forecast for the next two days had overall validation R2 of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively; the R2 was around 0.5 for the following three forecast days. Spatial cross-validation showed similar validation metrics. Our forecast model, with validation normalized mean bias close to zero, substantially reduced the large biases in GEOS-CF. The proposed framework requires minimal computational resources compared to running CTMs at urban scales, enabling near-real-time PM2.5 forecast in resource-restricted environments.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS2003

Software Reliability 2002

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

Wallace, Dolores R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantitative Approach for the Accurate CFD Simulation of Hover in Turbulent Flow

Time-dependent Navier-Stokes simulations have been carried out for a V22 rotor in hover using an improved, low-diffusion, HLLE++ upwind algorithm in the OVERFLOW code. Emphasis is placed on lessons learned over the past decade regarding the effects of high-order spatial accuracy, grid resolution, and the use of detached eddy simulation in predicting the rotor performance, i.e., figure-of-merit (FM). A quick-start procedure is described together with a statistical measure of FM convergence that reduces hover computations by 5 times, similar in computational work for forward flight. Furthermore, Cartesian adaptive mesh refinement in the rotor wake revealed a complex turbulent flow with worm-like structures of various scales. These turbulent worms, found computationally more than a decade ago, have recently been observed in a separate German Aerospace Center (DLR) experiment. Moreover, adaptive mesh refinement has been used to resolve the tip-vortex to its correct physical size.

Neal M. Chaderjian↗
NASA NTRS1978

Data analysis of the LPSP experiment on OSO-8

The first and statistically most reliable step in the data analysis - the computation of the vertical phase lag between photospheric and chromospheric oscillations - was completed. Unfortunately, the error associated with this calculated phase lag is so great that the result has no physical significance. Since the subsequent data analysis that was originally planned would have much larger associated errors, it was concluded that the data available is insufficient to allow any meaningful results to be derived. Accordingly, the project was terminated. The reasons for the failure of the data are discussed. There are two basic reasons for this failure; (1) the very low signal to noise ratio of the raw data, and (1) the small statistical sample that resulted from the very small number of usable orbits. The final phase of data analysis is described. Finally, some comments and recommendations of a general nature are made concerning this entire contract effort. It is hoped that at least some lessons can be learned from this particular Guest Investigator project, so that future Guest Investigator programs can be pursued more effectively, and with less risk.

Frazier, E. N.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Tutoring electronic troubleshooting in a simulated maintenance work environment

A series of intelligent tutoring systems, or intelligent maintenance simulators, is being developed based on expert and novice problem solving data. A graded series of authentic troubleshooting problems provides the curriculum, and adaptive instructional treatments foster active learning in trainees who engage in extensive fault isolation practice and thus in conditionalizing what they know. A proof of concept training study involving human tutoring was conducted as a precursor to the computer tutors to assess this integrated, problem based approach to task analysis and instruction. Statistically significant improvements in apprentice technicians' troubleshooting efficiency were achieved after approximately six hours of training.

Gott, Sherrie P.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Constructing Space-Time Views from Fixed Size Statistical Data: Getting the Best of Both Worlds

Many performance monitoring tools are currently available to the super-computing community. The performance data gathered and analyzed by these tools fall under two categories: statistics and event traces. Statistical data is much more compact but lacks the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, can easily fill up the entire file system during execution such that the instrumented execution may have to be terminated half way through. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. The user can trade-off tracing overhead, trace data size vs. data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using spacetime views for the entire execution. Two basic ideas are employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and "formulae" to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected vs. event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, in deed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution and that the quality of the space time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture 100% of all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at run-time to learn longer sequences.

Schmidt, Melisa↗
NASA NTRS1997

Constructing Space-Time Views from Fixed Size Statistical Data: Getting the Best of both Worlds

Many performance monitoring tools are currently available to the super-computing community. The performance data gathered and analyzed by these tools fall under two categories: statistics and event traces. Statistical data is much more compact but lacks the probative power event traces offer. Event traces, on the other hand, can easily fill up the entire file system during execution such that the instrumented execution may have to be terminated half way through. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for performance data gathering and representation that offers a middle ground. The user can trade-off tracing overhead, trace data size vs. data quality incrementally. In other words, the user will be able to limit the amount of trace collected and, at the same time, carry out some of the analysis event traces offer using space-time views for the entire execution. Two basic ideas arc employed: the use of averages to replace recording data for each instance and formulae to represent sequences associated with communication and control flow. With the help of a few simple examples, we illustrate the use of these techniques in performance tuning and compare the quality of the traces we collected vs. event traces. We found that the trace files thus obtained are, in deed, small, bounded and predictable before program execution and that the quality of the space time views generated from these statistical data are excellent. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the formulae proposed were able to capture 100% of all the sequences associated with 11 of the 15 applications tested. The performance of the formulae can be incrementally improved by allocating more memory at run-time to learn longer sequences.

Schmidt, Melisa↗
NASA NTRS2014

Renewable Energy at NASA's Johnson Space Center

NASA's Johnson Space Center has implemented a great number of renewable energy systems. Renewable energy systems are necessary to research and implement if we humans are expected to continue to grow and thrive on this planet. These systems generate energy using renewable sources - water, wind, sun - things that we will not run out of. Johnson Space Center is helping to pave the way by installing and studying various renewable energy systems. The objective of this report will be to examine the completed renewable energy projects at NASA's Johnson Space Center for a time span of ten years, beginning in 2003 and ending in early 2014. This report will analyze the success of each project based on actual vs. projected savings and actual vs. projected efficiency. Additionally, both positive and negative experiences are documented so that lessons may be learned from past experiences. NASA is incorporating renewable energy wherever it can, including into buildings. According to the 2012 JSC Annual Sustainability Report, there are 321,660 square feet of green building space on JSC's campus. The two projects discussed here are major contributors to that statistic. These buildings were designed to meet various Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Certification criteria. LEED Certified buildings use 30 to 50 percent less energy and water compared to non-LEED buildings. The objectives of this project were to examine data from the renewable energy systems in two of the green buildings onsite - Building 12 and Building 20. In Building 12, data was examined from the solar photovoltaic arrays. In Building 20, data was examined from the solar water heater system. By examining the data from the two buildings, it could be determined if the renewable energy systems are operating efficiently. Objectives In Building 12, the data from the solar photovoltaic arrays shows that the system is continuously collecting energy from the sun, as shown by the graph below. Building 12 has two solar inverters, located on the second floor, that collected the data from the solar photovoltaic arrays. The data displayed here is the total energy produced by the system. These are cumulative amounts, so the last point on the graph shows all of the energy collected from the system since the start of its operation. The data shown here was manually collected from the solar inverters. However, the data is also automatically recorded through EBI. Through analysis of both sets of data it was determined that the EBI data was faulty. For example, from the manually collected data it can be determined that a total of 73 kWh of energy was collected between the dates of 1/16/2014 – 1/22/2014. The EBI data reports that approximately 17800 kWh of energy was collected during the same time frame. Not only does this exceed the time frame examined, but it also exceeds the total energy collected from the start of collection as recorded from the inverters. This leads to the belief that there is a malfunction with the automatic recording of the energy. In Building 20, data was examined from the solar water heater dating back many months and found that the pump for the solar water heater system was not operating properly, as exhibited in the graph shown below. The pump operates on a solar energy system, meaning that it collects energy throughout the day from the sun. Because of this, the system would stop operating shortly after the sun set because of a lack of sunlight. At that point, the graph should show a zero flow rate, but as exhibited in the graph below, that is not the case. It is clearly shown that the pump is continuously operating, even during the night. It was also observed that the majority of the time the pump would not turn on at all, despite good weather conditions. This led to the conclusion that the pump is malfunctioning, and needs to be examined and fixed.

McDowall, Lindsay↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

U.S. GPM Status

The joint U.S.-Japan Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, now in its tenth year of operations, continues to pursue research on scientific and operational shortcomings in algorithms for retrieving global precipitation from satellite observations. A summary of operations, including the orbit boost, processing, science, and applications is provided. This includes key improvements to the GPM products for which NASA has lead responsibility. This includes refinements to ensure continuity for each product across the boundary in 2014 between the predecessor Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the GPM Core Observatory. Early evaluations of the U.S. Science Team’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) in V07 show interesting behavior across the TRMM orbit boost that is highly relevant to the planned orbit boost for the GPM Core observatory. We will present summary statistics that illustrate the tremendous demand that exists in the user community for GPM precipitation products, which on the U.S. side is primarily focused on IMERG, and end by considering major issues that might be addressed in up-coming versions. These include the use of machine learning algorithms, the operational challenge of swarms of “small”, perhaps short-lived satellites, and continuation of precessing calibration satellites after GPM.

GPM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NESC GN&C TDT Workshop on 2D Image Motion Optical Transfer Functions, Pointing Performance Analysis, and Requirements

What You Will Learn: The focus is on payload imaging performance due to pointing motion. Some historical background on pointing performance analysis is given. The Optical Transfer Function (OTF) and Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) are defined. The imaging performance due to pointing motion is measured by image motion optical transfer functions (IM OTF). IM OTFs are defined for displacement, smear, and jitter motions, which are all rigorously defined. Deterministic and Statistical IM OTFs are briefly derived and graphically illustrated and compared. The IM OTFs are parameterized by pointing error metrics(PEM), which are means and covariances of displacement, smear, and jitter. Emphasis is on procedures and algorithms to evaluate the image motion optical transfer functions and pointing error metrics. Three procedures are covered, which depend on whether the pointing error data is from time-domain simulation, frequency-domain analysis, or stochastic modeling. A method to evaluate the relative contribution of disturbance sources and to identify the most significant contributors is presented. The presentation includes pertinent discussion of flexible structures and control-structure interaction. No single book can adequately cover this subject, so a book is not required for the course. A list of selected articles, reports, documents, and books is provided for reference and further study. Mathis kept to the minimum necessary to convey principles; lengthy derivations are left to the reference material. Graphics are used to illustrate concepts. As with any such learning endeavor, the knowledge gained will be retained and strengthened through actual practice.c©2019–2021 Mark E. Pittelkau— 5

NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC)↗
NASA NTRS2013

Downscaling Satellite Precipitation with Emphasis on Extremes: A Variational 1-Norm Regularization in the Derivative Domain

The increasing availability of precipitation observations from space, e.g., from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the forthcoming Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) Mission, has fueled renewed interest in developing frameworks for downscaling and multi-sensor data fusion that can handle large data sets in computationally efficient ways while optimally reproducing desired properties of the underlying rainfall fields. Of special interest is the reproduction of extreme precipitation intensities and gradients, as these are directly relevant to hazard prediction. In this paper, we present a new formalism for downscaling satellite precipitation observations, which explicitly allows for the preservation of some key geometrical and statistical properties of spatial precipitation. These include sharp intensity gradients (due to high-intensity regions embedded within lower-intensity areas), coherent spatial structures (due to regions of slowly varying rainfall),and thicker-than-Gaussian tails of precipitation gradients and intensities. Specifically, we pose the downscaling problem as a discrete inverse problem and solve it via a regularized variational approach (variational downscaling) where the regularization term is selected to impose the desired smoothness in the solution while allowing for some steep gradients(called 1-norm or total variation regularization). We demonstrate the duality between this geometrically inspired solution and its Bayesian statistical interpretation, which is equivalent to assuming a Laplace prior distribution for the precipitation intensities in the derivative (wavelet) space. When the observation operator is not known, we discuss the effect of its misspecification and explore a previously proposed dictionary-based sparse inverse downscaling methodology to indirectly learn the observation operator from a database of coincidental high- and low-resolution observations. The proposed method and ideas are illustrated in case studies featuring the downscaling of a hurricane precipitation field.

Hurricanes↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting Risk and Anomalies in Airplane Dynamics Through Entropic Analysis of Time Series Data

Despite recent efforts to move away from traditional threshold exceedance detection methods for aircraft state monitoring, modern aircraft still rely on safety thresholds to communicate to pilots the identification of an anomaly in the aircraft when a threshold is surpassed. Current anomaly detection methods mainly depend on uninterpretable machine learning models to learn complex patterns and relationships contained in the time series data of aircraft. Although these methods are capable of identifying known anomalies, their deficiency in interpretability presents a challenge when translating them to different aircraft. To overcome this deficiency, entropic analysis of aircraft dynamics seeks to characterize the complexity, or lack thereof, of the aircraft dynamics prior to the development of a risk scenario. This complexity characterization provides a more straightforward summary of state changes in the dynamics of flight variables. To build a foundation for entropic analysis, we analyzed the complexity of unstable approaches, an anomalous event present in many of today’s aviation accidents. The analysis revealed a statistically significant difference in the complexity distribution of flight variables under a stable approach versus an unstable approach. These differences in complexity were especially notable minutes before an approach was identified as unstable. Moreover, the multiscale entropic analysis revealed the presence of signal complexity at multiple time scales across multiple time windows before landing. By capturing state changes and corrections in the aircraft dynamics using entropy, advanced, yet still interpretable, sensor systems based on entropic frameworks from this study can be constructed in the future using classical machine learning approaches.

Risk detection↗