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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

An efficient method to propagate model uncertainty when inverting seismic data for time domain seismic moment tensors

SUMMARY We present a computationally efficient method to approximately propagate uncertainty when linearly inverting seismic data for point source, time variable moment tensor components. The method is based on the assumption that the data residual, given by the difference between the observed seismic data and the data predicated by a linear inversion, contains the effects of both data and model uncertainty. Our method uses a distribution of data residuals, added directly to the data, in a pseudo-Monte Carlo scheme. Using the assumption that the data residual is a stochastic process, we use the well-known Karhunen–Loève (KL) theorem to construct a distribution of data residuals, where the required basis functions are constructed using Fourier series. The Fourier series are scaled by a product of a random variable and the real-valued spectral amplitudes of the original data residual’s spectrum. Thus, the Fourier series and spectral amplitudes are eigenfunction-eigenvalue pairs used in the KL-based construction of data residual distribution. Using tests with synthetic data, we show that our method compares closely with a Finite Difference Monte Carlo (FDMC) method that we presented previously. More importantly, the method presented here is computationally several orders of magnitude faster than our previous FDMC method, and requires no a priori assumptions of model and/or data uncertainty.

Poppeliers, Christian (ORCID:0000000159526849)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbial Community Composition in Deep‐Subsurface Reservoir Fluids Reveals Natural Interwell Connectivity

Abstract The identification of natural fractures and the wells they connect is crucial for the development of geological reservoirs because it may have an important impact on reservoir model construction and hydraulic fracture propagation. In this study we investigated the use of a novel data source, the microbial community composition in the reservoir formation fluids, for identification of interwell connectivity caused by natural fractures. We verified this concept at a newly developed mesoscale enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field testbed located 4,850 ft (1,478 m) beneath ground surface at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, SD. Fluids produced at or near the EGS testbed were sampled and subjected to high‐throughput 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to analyze the microbial community profile therein. Despite the typically substantial heterogeneity across the community profiles of samples spatially distributed (10 m to 1.9 km apart) throughout the site, samples from two wells at the EGS testbed showed highly similar microbial community composition, suggesting the two wells intersected the same natural fracture. This evidence of natural connectivity between the two wells at the EGS testbed was later corroborated by core log analysis and sewer camera surveys into the boreholes. Besides the field case described in this study, microbial community composition as a reservoir diagnostic tool would be applicable in a much broader context such as unconventional hydrocarbon exploitation, groundwater reservoir characterization, and environmental remediation, adding valuable “hard” data capable of pinpointing the origins of fluids unambiguously.

Zhang, Yuran↗
DOE OSTI2026

Terrestrial Gamma‐Ray Flash Following Intense Negative Return Stroke Observed With BIMAP‐3D

We report ground-based observations of a terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) associated with a strong negative cloud-to-ground lightning strike (-CG) which occurred near Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in New Mexico, USA. Gamma photons were detected by the Terrestrial High-energy Observations of Radiation (THOR) instrument, developed at the University of California, Santa Cruz, which has been hosted at LANL since 2022. Simultaneous measurements were also made with the 3-Dimensional Broadband Interferometric Mapping and Polarization (BIMAP-3D) system, which includes 3D lightning mapping, two fast antennas, and an additional plastic scintillator. Additional field change waveforms were obtained from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). The lightning initiated about 1 km above the ground, leading to a powerful -CG with an ENTLN peak current of −237 kA and bipolar field change matching the recently described “energetic compact stroke” (ECS) shape. The TGF was then observed ∼35 µs after the start of the return stroke. We also observe an electric field pulse likely produced by the TGF either in isolation or by coupling to the lightning channel. Based on modeling of the radiated electric field and photon propagation through the atmosphere we infer that the TGF source was on the order of 1⁢0 17 photons. This TGF and associated lightning are extremely similar to some recently reported ECS TGFs in coastal Japan in winter, but we report the first observation of this phenomenon outside of Japan in a different climate, terrain, and season.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. I. Inverse Lagrangian analysis

Absolute measurements of solid-material compressibility by magnetically driven shockless dynamic compression experiments to multi-megabar pressures have the potential to greatly improve the accuracy and precision of pressure calibration standards for use in diamond anvil cell experiments. Here, to this end, we apply characteristics-based inverse Lagrangian analysis (ILA) to 11 sets of ramp-compression data on pure platinum (Pt) metal and then reduce the resulting weighted-mean stress–strain curve to the principal isentrope and room-temperature isotherm using simple models for yield stress and Grüneisen parameter. We introduce several improvements to methods for ILA and quasi-isentrope reduction, the latter including calculation of corrections in wave speed instead of stress and pressure to render results largely independent of initial yield stress while enforcing thermodynamic consistency near zero pressure. More importantly, we quantify in detail the propagation of experimental uncertainty through ILA and model uncertainty through quasi-isentrope reduction, considering all potential sources of error except the electrode and window material models used in ILA. Compared to previous approaches, we find larger uncertainty in longitudinal stress. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates that uncertainty in the yield-stress model constitutes by far the largest contribution to uncertainty in quasi-isentrope reduction corrections. We present a new room-temperature isotherm for Pt up to 444 GPa, with 1-sigma uncertainty at that pressure of just under ±1.2%; the latter is about a factor of three smaller than uncertainty previously reported for multi-megabar ramp-compression experiments on Pt. The result is well represented by a Vinet-form compression curve with (isothermal) bulk modulus K 0 = 270.3 ± 3.8 GPa, pressure derivative K$^{'}_{0}$= 5.66 ± 0.10, and correlation coefficient $R_{K_{0},K^{'}_{0}}$= –0.843.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Uncertainty Impacts on Emissions and Fuel Economy Evaluation for Chassis Dynamometer Testing

This study illustrates a methodology for quantifying the uncertainties encountered in the measurement of tailpipe emissions and in the fuel consumption measurements for light-duty conventional vehicles tested on a four-wheel drive chassis dynamometer. The study leverages high-fidelity experimental data collected over three standard drive cycles, UDDS, HWY and US06, intended to simulate a wide range of operating conditions. Here, a method is developed to estimate the measurement uncertainties in fuel consumption for a test cycle, which occur due to the accumulation of measurement uncertainties propagated through the system. The uncertainty determination model uses statistical analysis and standard propagation techniques to evaluate and combine the uncertainties introduced from various sources (including the vehicle, chassis dynamometer, driver, and instrumentation). The analysis also examines three different experimental methods for determining the fuel consumption: 1) carbon mass balance, 2) volumetric fuel scale and 3) gravimetric fuel scale, and takes into consideration the properties of the instrumentation used. The results show that the most significant influence on the determination of the emissions comes from the concentration measurement, and similarly the biggest impact on the total fuel consumption uncertainty comes from the uncertainty in the determination of the carbon dioxide mass, due to the large presence of this pollutant in the overall emissions. It was found that the fuel consumption uncertainties are in the range of ±1-2% for all three methods analyzed, with the lowest values being obtained for measurements performed using the gravimetric method for all three drive cycles considered.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1974

Normal-mode approach to wave propagation in the turbulent atmosphere

Recent studies have used the superposition principle (extended Huygens-Fresnel principle) to characterize completely the statistics of a field that has propagated through a thick slab of turbulent air in terms of the statistics for spherical-wave sources. In this paper, we consider the normal-mode decomposition associated with this linear system propagation model. In particular, we use the statistics of the atmospheric impulse response (Green's function) to show that the atmospheric mode decomposition exhibits far-field and near-field regimes very similar to those of free-space propagation. The significance of these results for optical communication through the atmosphere is briefly discussed.

Shapiro, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Improved Estimation Of Delays In Radio Interferometry

Report describes status of mathematical model of delays in propagation of radio signals that originate at extra-galactic or other distant sources and received at widely separated terrestrial antennas engaged in very-long-baseline interferometry. Implemented in multiparameter estimation computer program MODEST. Needed, in applications as geodynamics and astronomy, to extract significant parameters from observed signal delays. Program and present report are updated versions of MASTERFIT program and accompanying report.

Sovers, Ojars J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Improving Rain/No-Rain Detection Skill by Merging Precipitation Estimates from Different Sources

Rain/no-rain detection error is a key source of uncertainty in regional and global precipitation products that propagates into offline hydrological and land surface modeling simulations. Such detection error is difficult to evaluate and/or filter without access to high-quality reference precipitation datasets. For cases where such access is not available, this study proposes a novel approach for improved rain/no-rain detection. Based on categorical triple collocation (CTC) and a probabilistic framework, a weighted merging algorithm (CTC-M) is developed to combine noisy, but independent, precipitation products into an optimal binary rain/no-rain time series. Compared with commonly used approaches that directly apply the best parent product for rain/no-rain detection, the superiority of CTC-M is demonstrated analytically and numerically using spatially dense precipitation measurements over Europe. Our analysis also suggests that CTC-M is tolerant to a range of cross-correlated rain/no-rain detection errors and detection biases of the parent products. As a result, CTC-M will benefit global precipitation estimation by improving the representation of precipitation occurrence in gauge-based and multisource merged precipitation products.

Jianzhi Dong↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of an Uninhabited Aircraft System (UAS) for Atmospheric Observations During an Acoustic Flight Test

A jet noise test was performed at Niagara Falls International Airport using a Calspan Learjet 25 by acoustics researchers at NASA Glenn Research Center in partnership with Calspan personnel and Uninhabited Aircraft Systems (UAS) pilots and sensor operators from NASA Langley Research Center. To account for atmospheric attenuation in the de-propagation of jet noise from a ground-based microphone array to the source for comparison with model data collected in a facility at NASA GRC, a vertical profile of atmospheric conditions was required. To that end, a sUAS was flown with a weather sensor package measuring atmospheric pressure, humidity, and temperature in a range of altitudes from ground level to 304.8 m (1,000 ft) above ground level (AGL). The sUAS flights were performed concurrently with and adjacent to the Learjet flight path. Data from these UAS flights are presented herein; additionally, comparisons with conventional balloon-borne instrumentation are made with a particular focus on the quality and capability of UAS-based observations for acoustic flight test applications. Furthermore, a ground-based light detection and ranging (LiDAR) system was deployed for collecting wind magnitude and direction for discrete altitudes up to 304.8 m (1,000 ft) AGL. Data from the LiDAR unit will be presented and discussed in the context of aircraft acoustic flight testing. This effort was supported by NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology project.

UAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The research into the propagation law of the shock wave of a gas explosion inside a building

Based on the dissipation rate conservation equations of turbulent kinetic energy in the k‐ ε turbulence model, a complicated three‐dimensional finite element model of a kitchen filled with gas mixture is developed by using the open source field operation and manipulation (OpenFOAM). Two representative kitchens were used to investigate the propagation law of the shock wave of a gas explosion inside a building by considering the key characteristics of the blast shock wave. The influence of some crucial parameters, such as initial conditions and kitchen parameters, on the properties of the blast shock wave is investigated. The basic steps to predict the peak pressure of the blast shock wave are given in consideration of the initial condition and the kitchen whilst the injury effect of the blast shock wave on the humans and animals is evaluated. The research results indicate that the pressure time history and the peak pressure space distribution are greatly influenced by the kitchen design layout. The coupled interaction between the initial temperature and gas volume concentration, especially at the upper and lower explosion limits of the gas, significantly affects the peak pressure. The peak pressure varies significantly with the opening and the buffer; however, it has little relation with the width, length, and height of the kitchen. The proposed method can accurately and effectively predict the peak pressure of the blast shock wave inside buildings. In terms of the peak pressure space distribution of the explosion shock wave, the peak pressure is much higher than the threshold of the killing pressure, which is unsafe for the humans and animals in the building.

Lin, Shu-Chao↗
NASA NTRS2006

Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are confined to equatorial latitudes. Hemispherical asymmetries also appear in both the model results and the observations. The temperature amplitudes outside the equatorial region however tend to occur at lower latitudes in the model results. While there is qualitative agreement between the TIMED measurements and the model prediction, there are some areas of significant disagreement that require us to reexamine the present version of the NSM. The numerical results critically depend on the chosen parameters that determine the wave forcing, and there are a number of avenues to improve the performance of the model that had not been tuned to fit the observations. The GW spectrum and its latitude dependence in the troposphere are not well known, and numerical experiments are discussed that describe the related model response. While it appears that eastward propagating Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby gravity waves are not the primary source to generate the QBO, the GW forcing can seed the oscillation and act as a catalyst to enhance effectiveness of these planetary waves.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local Explosion Detection and Infrasound Localization by Reverse Time Migration Using 3-D Finite-Difference Wave Propagation

Infrasound data are routinely used to detect and locate volcanic and other explosions, using both arrays and single sensor networks. However, at local distances (< km) topography often complicates acoustic propagation, resulting in inaccurate acoustic travel times leading to biased source locations when assuming straight-line propagation. Here we present a new method, termed Reverse Time Migration-Finite-Difference Time Domain (RTM-FDTD), that integrates numerical modeling into the standard RTM back-projection process. Travel time information is computed across the entire potential source grid via FDTD modeling to incorporate the effects of topography. The waveforms are then back-projected and stacked at each grid point, with the stack maximum corresponding to the likely source. We apply our method to three volcanoes with different network configurations, source-receiver distances, and topography. At Yasur Volcano, Vanuatu, RTM-FDTD locates explosions within ~20 m of the source and differentiates between multiple vents. RTM-FDTD produces a more accurate location for the two Yasur subcraters than standard RTM and doubles the number of detected events. At Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, RTM-FDTD locates the source within 50 m of the active vent despite notable topographic blocking. The RTM-FDTD location is similar to that from the Time Reversal Mirror method, but is more computationally efficient. Lastly, at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska, RTM and RTM-FDTD both produce realistic source locations (<50 m) for ground-coupled airwaves recorded on a four-station seismic network. We show that RTM is an effective method to detect and locate infrasonic sources across a variety of scenarios, and by integrating numerical modeling, RTM-FDTD produces more accurate source locations and increases the detection capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Improving Fidelity of Launch Vehicle Liftoff Acoustic Simulations

Launch vehicles experience high acoustic loads during ignition and liftoff affected by the interaction of rocket plume generated acoustic waves with launch pad structures. Application of highly parallelized Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis tools optimized for application on the NAS computer systems such as the Loci/CHEM program now enable simulation of time-accurate, turbulent, multi-species plume formation and interaction with launch pad geometry and capture the generation of acoustic noise at the source regions in the plume shear layers and impingement regions. These CFD solvers are robust in capturing the acoustic fluctuations, but they are too dissipative to accurately resolve the propagation of the acoustic waves throughout the launch environment domain along the vehicle. A hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics and Computational Aero-Acoustics (CFD/CAA) modeling framework has been developed to improve such liftoff acoustic environment predictions. The framework combines the existing highly-scalable NASA production CFD code, Loci/CHEM, with a high-order accurate discontinuous Galerkin (DG) solver, Loci/THRUST, developed in the same computational framework. Loci/THRUST employs a low dissipation, high-order, unstructured DG method to accurately propagate acoustic waves away from the source regions across large distances. The DG solver is currently capable of solving up to 4th order solutions for non-linear, conservative acoustic field propagation. Higher order boundary conditions are implemented to accurately model the reflection and refraction of acoustic waves on launch pad components. The DG solver accepts generalized unstructured meshes, enabling efficient application of common mesh generation tools for CHEM and THRUST simulations. The DG solution is coupled with the CFD solution at interface boundaries placed near the CFD acoustic source regions. Both simulations are executed simultaneously with coordinated boundary condition data exchange.

Liever, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1981

A transient MHD model applicable for the source of solar cosmic ray acceleration

A two-dimensional, time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model is used to describe the possible mechanisms for the source of solar cosmic ray acceleration following a solar flare. The hypothesis is based on the propagation of fast mode MHD shocks following a sudden release of energy. In this presentation, the effects of initial magnetic topology and strength on the formation of MHD shocks have been studied. The plasma beta (thermal pressure/magnetic pressure) is considered as a measure of the initial, relative strength of the field. During dynamic mass motion, the Alfven Mach number is the more appropriate measure of the magnetic field's ability to control the outward motion. It is suggested that this model (computed self-consistently) provides the shock waves and the disturbed mass motion behind it as likely sources for solar cosmic ray acceleration.

Dryer, M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-Based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a potential source of man-made orbital debris. The possibility that SRMs (in addition to generating dust particles in the sub-millimeter range) may generate particles up to centimeters in size has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Returned surfaces from space do not have sufficient area or exposure time to provide a clear picture of the SRM millimeter and centimeter debris population. Currently, radar observation is probably the only way to collect data showing the debris contribution from SRMs. Such observation is used to sample the debris environment, but it is difficult to obtain accurate orbital elements for the detected debris objects. NASA has developed several models to describe the different orbital debris populations, based on assumed debris production mechanisms to create clouds of debris objects that can be propagated in time. The NASA model, LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris), functions as a time-tested debris model for most debris sources. However, the current LEGEND model does not include contributions from the SRM population. An SRM model has recently been developed by NASA, based on purely theoretical details of SRM production and known SRM launches, but verification with hard data is needed. Because the detections of individual SRM objects cannot be deterministically separated from the total debris observed by radar, the validation of the SRM model can only be done by combining it with the LEGEND breakup model and comparing it with data. By applying observational constraints, the degree of SRM slag contribution to the environment may be estimated. This serves as an observationally sound method from which to calibrate a purely theoretical model into something more realistic. For this study, we use the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. For the SRM debris, we use a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tailoff to produce and propagate the SRM debris clouds. Comparisons with radar data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the populations estimated from the data. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment and estimates of the production and contribution of SRM debris to the environment.

Horstman, Matthew F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Total Measurement Uncertainty in Neutron Coincidence Multiplicity Analysis

Neutron multiplicity counting is the most commonly used nondestructive assay technique for determining the plutonium mass within containers of scrap PuO 2 or mixed oxide (MOX). In multiplicity analysis, the 240 Pu eff mass, leakage multiplication, and alpha ratio (the ratio of [α, n]-to-spontaneous fission neutron production) are the three primary unknown sample properties. They must be determined simultaneously. To solve for these three unknowns in a multiplicity assay, three measured values are needed: the singles, doubles, and triples neutron count rates. While the analysis is limited to solving for three unknowns, there are many additional factors that impact the observed count rates and contribute to the measurement uncertainty. In this study we investigate the various uncertainty contributors for the multiplicity analysis through a combination of traditional uncertainty propagation techniques supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations to address the dependences not explicitly expressed by the point source model. Uncertainties arising from counting statistics, calibration parameters, calibration method, nuclear data, and various material characteristics (isotopic abundances, chemical form, density, and impurities) are considered. A Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) estimate is then developed from these uncertainty contributors. This study is confined to multiplicity analysis of items commonly encountered in international safeguards applications. That is, the study focused on Pu oxides and MOX materials for the masses ranging up to 4000 grams total Pu. Multiplicity measurements were simulated using MCNP V6 based on the Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC), Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (ENMC), Pyrochemical Multiplicity Counter, and Large Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (LEMC) for this study; however, this report focuses on the parameterization of the uncertainties for the PSMC. The performance differences between the PSMC and the other multiplicity counting systems are relatively small, primarily manifesting in the impact on measurement precision so that the evaluation developed for the PSMC can be applied to the other multiplicity counting systems. Finally an analysis tool, the Multiplicity TMU Estimator, was developed from this study to serve as an aid for evaluation of the total measurement uncertainty of multiplicity assay results obtained from the commonly used INCC acquisition and analysis software.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗