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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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1,197 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Construction of Time-Dependent Hamiltonians for Microwave-Driven Josephson Circuits

Time-dependent electromagnetic drives are fundamental for controlling complex quantum systems, including superconducting Josephson circuits. In these devices, accurate time-dependent Hamiltonian models are imperative for predicting their dynamics and designing high-fidelity quantum operations. Existing numerical methods, such as black-box quantization (BBQ) and energy-participation ratio (EPR), excel at modeling the static Hamiltonians of Josephson circuits. However, these techniques do not fully capture the behavior of driven circuits stimulated by external microwave drives, nor do they include a generalized approach to account for the inevitable noise and dissipation that enter through microwave ports. Here, we introduce numerical techniques that leverage classical microwave simulations, efficiently executable in finite-element solvers, to obtain the time-dependent Hamiltonian of microwave-driven superconducting circuits with arbitrary geometries under charge, flux, or mixed electromagnetic modulation. Importantly, our techniques do not rely on a lumped-element description of the superconducting circuit, in contrast to previous approaches to tackling this problem. We demonstrate the versatility of our approach by characterizing the driven properties of realistic circuit devices in complex electromagnetic environments, including coherent dynamics due to charge and flux modulation, as well as drive-induced relaxation and dephasing. Our techniques offer a powerful toolbox for optimizing circuit designs and advancing practical applications in superconducting quantum computing.

Lu, Yao [Yale U.; Yale U. (main); Fermilab] (ORCID↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamic Analysis of Reynolds Number Effects on Trailing Edge Transonic Vortex Shedding and Its Impact on Turbine Blade Aerodynamic Performance

In this work, we will discuss observations from images acquired from a time-resolved, high-speed self-aligned focusing Schlieren campaign that was performed at the CW-22 facility at NASA Glenn Research Center to understand the dynamic behavior of thick trailing-edge high-pressure turbine blades simulating a ceramic matrix composite (CMC) construction at high inlet turbulence conditions. For the CMC-9 blade, which has a trailing edge thickness of 9% of the axial chord, we identified a regime where an excessive total pressure loss (loss anomaly) is observed only for a narrow range of Reynolds numbers at a fixed exit Mach number of 0.74. The loss anomaly is qualitatively explained by our images, which were taken at 10 distinct blade Reynolds numbers spanning a factor of 6. The images show a significant increase in energy related to the oscillations due to transonic vortex shedding at the Reynolds numbers related to the high loss conditions. This increased energy leads to the formation of strong acoustic waves that turn into shock waves at the highest loss conditions. From our observations stemming from Spectral POD analysis of the high-speed images, we see the acoustic waves produced by the trailing edge vortex shedding exist in all conditions tested; but the shedding frequency has a very slight trend upwards as the Reynolds number is increased, varying about 6% in the range tested. Considering this variation of shedding frequency as a function of Reynolds number, which is well-established for other bluff-body flows, we stipulate there may be a potential feedback mechanism involving an acoustic information transfer path across neighboring blades that may explain why only a narrow range of Reynolds numbers displays strong, shock-forming vortex shedding. We consider a few feedback paths and examine the timing based on the mean flow field from a high-resolution LES simulation. It appears that all feedback mechanisms are viable, presenting an integer number of delay cycles with respect to disturbances generated at the trailing edge. Most noteworthy, however, is the acoustic/shock-boundary layer interaction mechanism at the blade geometric throat. Based on our analysis, this mechanism likely plays an important role in realistic, curved turbine blade passages.

Aerodynamics↗
NASA NTRS2024

Performance of Two Battery Prognostic Applications used by Two Octocopters for Safe Low Altitude Autonomous Flight Operations

This paper addresses the problem of building trust in online predictions of the remaining available flying time for two different electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (eUAVs) powered by lithium-ion-polymer batteries. Flight tests for various automation research missions for the two vehicles were monitored using two on-board battery health management applications to make predictions of the remaining flying time (RFT) for each eUAV and to predict the state of the battery. Playback of the voltage, current and temperature profiles of the battery discharge were used to assess the accuracy of the estimation of the voltage and the charge states of the models as well as the estimate of the RFT. The reference ground truth values were the observed landing time and the measured battery pack resting pack voltage 20 minutes after the flight. The predicted RFT, state of charge (SoC), and state of energy (SoE) were compared with the observed results. Noise values of one standard deviation from the mean values of the internal charge states of the battery model during a reference run were used to vary the states during simulation. One application used an equivalent circuit model of the electrical dynamics of the battery pack, and the other application used a reduced-order electrochemistry model. The variation of the model state components was compared to the variation in the estimate of the RFT and the variation in the SoE to estimate a confidence factor. Variation in the estimates caused by factors affecting the off-line laboratory parameter identification experiments is considered. Variation in the estimates due to environmental factors are discussed.

Assurance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Analysis of an Open Rotor Stage: Part 1

Successful design of open rotor propulsors requires effective analysis across multiple disciplines, including aerodynamics, acoustics, and structures. A viable design must not only be efficient but must also produce an acceptable level of noise and meet all static and dynamic structural requirements. For design and optimization, this is especially challenging because running high fidelity analyses is resource-intensive, and optimizing a design may require many thousands of cases to be analyzed. For this reason, the NASA team has applied design methodology that utilizes low-cost aerodynamic methods, machine learning models, and high-fidelity analyses when necessary. This includes standard two-dimensional methods such as throughflow analysis and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD, as well as some newly developed methods. Optimization using 3D CFD is necessary to maximize performance, and this is considered as well. All optimizations are carried out subject to structural constraints evaluated using finite element analysis. Doing this accurately requires a robust trunnion design, capable of pitching the blade between cruise and takeoff conditions while maintaining acceptable factor of safety. Hot to cold analysis must also be applied in order to correctly determine the as-manufactured shape. For acoustics, the unsteady pressures on the blade surfaces must be predicted, and this can be done either through full-annulus unsteady CFD or through a nonlinear harmonic method (NLH). NLH can run much faster, allowing some acoustic considerations to be made earlier in the design process. The design process is ongoing, and this presentation will review the current status and planned next steps. This part of the talk will focus on aerodynamic performance and be followed by a talk on structures and acoustics.

Design↗
NASA NTRS1991

Preparation of the Ice Certification of the Dornier 328 Regional Airliner By Numerical Simulation and By Ground Test

The Dornier 328, a new regional airliner, is to be qualified to FAR25/JAR25 requirements for operation into known icing conditions. All lifting surfaces are pneumatically deiced. Impingement limits were determined using a validated computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code. Wind tunnel tests with a model of the whole aircraft and the isolated empennage equipped with artificial ice shapes showed a degradation of handling characteristics due to ice accretion. Extensive two and three dimensional CFD calculations evaluated ice accretion at the deflection elevator horn. Icing tunnel tests were performed with a model of the horizontal tail with icing similitude fulfilled. The Dornier Do328 powerplant air induction system has successfully completed a program of icing tests in support of aircraft certification for operation into known icing conditions. Potential flight icing conditions were extensively analyzed using a CFD potential flow code and 3-D particle tracking routine to identify critical flight icing conditions. The tunnel test program verified the analytically predicted critical ice accretion surfaces of the air induction system, the adequacy of the ice protection provisions and demonstrated compliance with the applicable (JAR25) regulatory material.

D Welte↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Radiolysis and Chemical Reactions during Dry Storage of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel

After aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) is removed from the reactor, it is initially stored in spent fuel pools, which are specially designed water-filled basins that provide temporary cooling to reduce the temperature of the fuel assemblies and provide radiation shielding. ASNF continues to generate heat due to the radioactive decay of elements within the fuel, which persists for many years post-shutdown as the residual radioactive products decay into more stable elements. During the wet storage period, an oxyhydroxide layer composed of boehmite/bayerite forms on the surfaces of the aluminum cladding from exposure to water in the pools. Road-ready packaging for long-term disposition of the ASNF involves dry storage in helium backfilled DOE standard canisters (DSCs). When the ASNF is removed from water storage and dried, most of the water is removed, but some physisorbed and chemisorbed water remains in the oxyhydroxide layers. This residual water can produce hydrogen when exposed to radiation from the ASNF during dry storage. Predicting hydrogen accumulation over time in the DSCs is critical for long-term storage considerations. Previous modeling efforts have developed coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-chemical models to simulate temperature, pressure, and gas phase concentrations within the DSCs. These models use the thermal field predicted by CFD as input to a radiolysis model for the gas phase and the surface oxyhydroxide layer chemistry. Given the long storage period of the DSCs and the impracticality of long-term experiments, a simulation-based approach is necessary to assess chemical evolution within the canisters. This study advances the development of a modeling framework designed to simulate the chemical evolution of spent fuel canisters. Both thermal and radiation-driven reactions are considered, with radiation kinetics quantified using G-values. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters influencing species composition. Reaction pathway diagrams offer insight into dominant species formation routes, enabling more effective comparisons between model predictions and experimental observations, particularly regarding the production of hydrogen. Results show that the model predicts significant hydrogen gas production with minimal oxygen generation, primarily due to hydrogen formation via boehmite pathways. These findings underscore the importance of accurately characterizing surface-bound species and radiolysis kinetics. A deeper understanding of these mechanisms is critical for evaluating the long-term safety of nuclear waste storage.

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ionic Interdiffusion at Cathode|Solid-Electrolyte Interface: A Machine Learning–Assisted Multiscale Investigation and Mitigation Strategies

Future lithium batteries are expected to use solid electrolytes to achieve higher energy density and fast charge capabilities. However, most solid electrolytes are thermodynamically unstable against layered oxide cathodes. In this study, the stability of LiCoO2 (LCO) cathode with Li10GeP2S12 (LGPS) solid electrolyte is investigated using ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) and machine learning molecular dynamics (MLMD). The propensity of ionic interdiffusion, formation of a passivating interphase layer, and corresponding decay in cell performance is addressed using a continuum model. Large-scale MLMD simulations confirm that the LCO|LGPS interface permits interdiffusion of cobalt (Co) and other ionic species, leading to the formation and growth of a resistive interphase and to dramatic capacity fade even in the first cycle. We examine the literature evidence that incorporating a thin layer of LiNb0.5Ta0.5O3 (LNTO) between LCO and LGPS prevents the interdiffusion of ions. Atomistic simulations suggest that substituting lithium (Li) in LNTO with Co is thermodynamically unfavorable, thereby inhibiting ionic interdiffusion. The stable Nb5+/Ta5+ states form a rigid metal-oxide framework, which consequently also prevents the substitution of niobium (Nb) or tantalum (Ta). However, continuum-level analysis suggests that the higher mechanical stiffness of LNTO can lead to interfacial delamination between the LCO and LNTO. This phenomenon reduces the effectiveness of the protective layer. This paper, therefore, highlights the need to develop novel interlayers that balance low ionic interdiffusion with low mechanical stiffness.

Ncube, Musawenkosi K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Atomistic Simulation of Glasses and Amorphous Materials: Challenges and Opportunities for the Next Decade

Atomistic simulations have become indispensable tools for understanding glass structure, dynamics, and properties, yet persistent challenges limit their predictive power. This perspective examines three interconnected issues, namely glass formation procedures, interatomic potential development, and machine learning applications, which emerged from the 5th International Workshop on Challenges of Atomistic Simulations of Glasses and Amorphous Materials. We identify convergent community priorities for (i) standardized validation protocols, (ii) curated benchmark datasets with complete metadata, and (iii) open repositories for glasses. A systematic was forward is provided by a hierarchical validation framework for assessing the structural fidelity, property prediction, and behavioral realism of simulation techniques. Looking ahead, transformative advances are promised by the fusion of classical techniques with machine learning based approaches, for instance, by integrating swap Monte Carlo with machine-learning (ML) potentials, leveraging foundation models through transfer learning, and finetuning ML potentials with experimental data. Progress depends on the community committing to validated models, reproducible protocols, and sustained data sharing.

Krishnan, N. M. Anoop↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Three-Dimensional, Multi-Phase Unsteady Flow of Water Undergoing Multiple Flow Regimes (Free Surface, Droplet, and Fluid Film)

Upgrades to the Mobile Launcher Rainbird nozzles were implemented for the Artemis II launch to increase water flow rates and improve the mobile launcher deck water coverage while minimizing the water throw distance to avoid impacting the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket nozzles. This analysis describes the use of a three-dimensional, multi-phase, free surface transient computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to simulate the water flowing out through the Rainbird nozzle and ensure compliance with current Artemis requirements. Flow rates, pressures, velocities, nozzle throw distances and coverage areas were analyzed to ensure that system requirements are met. The completed results were used to make necessary modifications to the Ignition Overpressure Protection and Sound Suppression (IOP/SS) system Rainbird design by reshaping the nozzle used in the system.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2026

Imaging a terahertz superfluid plasmon in a two-dimensional superconductor

The superconducting gap defines the fundamental energy scale for the emergence of dissipationless transport and collective phenomena in a superconductor. In layered high-temperature cuprate superconductors, in which the Cooper pairs are confined to weakly coupled two-dimensional (2D) copper–oxygen (CuO 2 ) planes, terahertz (THz) spectroscopy at subgap millielectronvolt (meV) energies has provided crucial insights into the collective superfluid response perpendicular to the superconducting layers. However, within the CuO 2 planes, the collective superfluid response manifests as plasmonic charge oscillations at energies far exceeding the superconducting gap, obscured by strong dissipation. Here, in this study, we present spectroscopic evidence of a below-gap, 2D superfluid plasmon in few-layer Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+x and spatially resolve its deeply subdiffractive THz electrodynamics. By placing the superconductor in the near field of a spintronic THz emitter, we reveal this distinct resonance—absent in bulk samples and observed only in the superconducting phase—and determine its plasmonic nature by mapping the geometric anisotropy and dispersion. Crucially, these measurements offer a direct view of the momentum-dependent and frequency-dependent superconducting transition in two dimensions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transition from Vehicular to Structural Ionic Transport in Electrified Alkali Aqueous Solutions

A molecular understanding of the solvation and dynamics of ions under static electric fields is crucial for modelling a wide range of natural and technological processes. Yet, traditional simulation methods suffer from a trade-off that has to be made between accuracy and statistical convergence. To bridge this gap, herein we extend our recently introduced Perturbed Neural Network Potential Molecular Dynamics (PNNP MD) approach to investigate the solvation structures and ionic transport mechanisms of electrified alkali cationic solutions. We obtain ionic conductivities for Li+, Na+ and Cs+ from the field dependence of the ionic current density in good agreement with experiment. Surprisingly, the migration mechanism is found to be strikingly different for the three ions despite their similar ionic conductivities. While Li+ conducts predominantly through vehicular migration of a stable 4-fold coordinated ion at all field strengths, Cs+ conducts strictly through a structural diffusion mechanism, where 9-12 transient first shell water coordination bonds are broken and renewed. Notably, aqueous Na+ emerges as a “Goldilocks” ion: its ion-water interactions are strong enough to maintain distinct 5-6 fold coordination shells at zero field (unlike Cs+) yet labile enough to be strongly perturbed by electric fields (unlike Li+). As a consequence, we observe an electric field-induced transition from vehicular to structural ionic transport for Na+ that is accompanied by a marked increase in the ionic current density. Our results imply that the conductance mechanism of ions with moderate ion-solvent interactions can be effectively tuned by external electric fields.

Joll, Kit↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Full-Induction Magnetohydrodynamics Solver for Liquid Metal Fusion Blankets in Vertex-CFD

Multiphysics modeling of liquid metal fusion blankets, which produce tritium and convert energy of neutrons created via fusion reactions into heat, is crucial for predicting performance, ensuring structural integrity, and optimizing energy production. While traditional blanket modeling of liquid metal flows during normal steady operating conditions commonly employs the inductionless approximation of the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, transient scenarios, when the plasma-confining magnetic field varies on millisecond time scales, require a full-induction MHD approach that dynamically evolves the magnetic field via the time-dependent induction equation. This paper presents the formulation, implementation, and initial verification of a full-induction MHD solver integrated within the open-source Vertex-CFD framework, which aims to achieve tight multiphysics coupling, a flexible software design enabling easy extension and addition of physics models, and performance portability across computing platforms. The solver utilizes finite element spatial discretization, implicit Runge–Kutta time integration, and an inexact Newton method to solve the resulting discrete nonlinear system, leveraging Trilinos packages for efficient computation. Verification against selected benchmark problems demonstrates accuracy and robustness of the solver. Furthermore, when the solver is applied to an idealized blanket model in 2.5D and full 3D, results obtained with Vertex-CFD are in good agreement with recently published quasi-2D simulations. These findings establish a computational foundation for future simulations of transient MHD phenomena in liquid metal blankets with Vertex-CFD, and open avenues for future extensions and performance optimizations.

Endeve, Eirik [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000312519507)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Few is different: deciphering many-body dynamics in mesoscopic quantum gases

Emergent macroscopic descriptions of matter, such as hydrodynamics, are central to our description of complex physical systems across a wide spectrum of energy scales. The conventional understanding of these many-body phenomena has recently been shaken by a number of experimental findings. Collective behavior of matter has been observed in mesoscopic systems, such as high-energy hadron–hadron collisions, or ultracold gases with only a few strongly interacting fermions. In such systems, the separation of scales between macroscopic and microscopic dynamics (at the heart of any effective theory) is inapplicable. To address the conceptual challenges that arise from these observations and explore the universality of emergent descriptions of matter, the EMMI Rapid Reaction Task Force was assembled. This document summarizes the RRTF discussions on recent theoretical and experimental advances in this rapidly developing field. Leveraging technological breakthroughs in the control of quantum systems, we can now quantitatively explore what it means for a system to exhibit behavior beyond the sum of its individual parts. In particular, the report highlights how the (in)applicability of hydrodynamics and other effective theories can be probed across three principal frontiers: the size frontier, the equilibrium frontier, and the interaction frontier.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct Observation of Elusive (DTBM‐SEGPHOS)CuH Monomer Enables Mechanistic Insights Into Hydrocupration, Aggregation, and Dynamics of Alkene Functionalization Catalysis

The bulky diphosphine DTBM-SEGPHOS is widely employed in CuH-catalyzed transformations as it provides remarkably active catalyst systems. The transient (DTBM-SEGPHOS)CuH monomer (LCuH) is the often-invoked active species. However, its instability has prevented spectroscopic characterization and mechanistic elucidation, hindering mechanistic understanding. We report low-temperature NMR spectroscopic characterization of LCuH, enabling quantitative kinetic analysis of the stoichiometric hydrocupration and catalytic hydroboration of cyclopentene, as well as the structural identification of two CuH clusters. LCuH inserts cyclopentene at −43°C, reaffirming its high reactivity toward olefins. LCuH deactivates to form L 2 Cu 3 H 3 and L 2 Cu 4 H 4 clusters, in which LCuH dimerization initiates aggregation. Kinetic analysis of reactions of unactivated alkenes indicates that competing on-cycle alkene hydrocupration and LCuH dimerization impact performance, as catalyst deactivation and turnover occur on comparable timescales. Structure–activity analysis using atomistic simulations shows that the steric profile of DTBM-SEGPHOS increases the CuH dimerization barrier by ∼7.7 kcal mol−1 compared to that of SEGPHOS, rationalizing the unique ability of DTBM-SEGPHOS to stabilize a reactive monomer for hydrocupration of broader alkene substrates. These findings illustrate the fundamental design principle that steric control of aggregation governs CuH catalyst performance, explaining both the exceptional activity of (DTBM-SEGPHOS)CuH and the limitations imposed by competing deactivation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Fidelity Building Emulator for Integrated Comfort and Energy Analysis using EnergyPlus and Radiance

The growing need for smart, energy-efficient, and occupant-centric buildings has created a demand for advanced control systems that can optimize building operations to balance energy savings, demand flexibility, and comfort. However, current building energy simulation tools, such as EnergyPlus, have limitations that hinder the development and evaluation of these complex control systems. To address this challenge, we introduce a high-fidelity building emulator that dynamically couples EnergyPlus with Radiance for enhanced daylight modeling. The introduced workflow allows researchers and practitioners to rapidly develop and evaluate innovative control solutions. An example study looking at a south-facing office zone revealed up to 67% deviation in predicted light levels, which can significantly impact building assessment.

Yu, Tammie↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nonequilibrium dynamics of two-level systems directly after cryogenic alternating bias

Two-level systems (TLSs) are a dominant decoherence mechanism in superconducting qubits, microwave kinetic inductance detectors, and quantum dots. TLSs are tunneling states commonly found in amorphous materials and interfaces, which interact electromechanically, leading to energy loss. Fluctuations in the frequency of the TLSs are a significant problem for qubit operation and force recalibration every few hours. In this study, we probe the effect of alternating bias at cryogenic temperatures on TLSs in a purpose-built LC oscillator. When an in situ alternating bias is applied, the steady-state spectra of the TLSs disappear. Spectroscopy reveals transient behavior, in which the TLS frequency fluctuates on the order of minutes. Thermal cycling above 10 K reverses these effects, restoring the TLS spectrum to its original state. Importantly, the intrinsic loss tangent of the LC oscillator remains unchanged before and after the application of the alternating bias. We propose that the disappearance of the steady-state spectrum is caused by nonequilibrium energy buildup from strain in the oxide film introduced by the pulsed voltage-bias sequence. Understanding this nonequilibrium energy could shed light on TLS fluctuations and reduce the calibration requirements for qubits.

general physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Multidimensional Progenitor Perturbations on Core-collapse Supernova Explosions

Numerical studies of core-collapse supernovae have demonstrated the importance of nonradial motions in precollapse progenitors on the explosion outcome. We use the Chimera neutrino radiation hydrodynamics code running seven two-dimensional simulations of 15 M⊙ progenitors with different progenitor structures introduced by different one- and two-dimensional precollapse stellar evolution environments to examine the impacts of stellar structure and nonspherical motion in the precollapse progenitor on the development of explosions. We compare the explosion evolution of these models in terms of shock dynamics, diagnostic energy, neutrino heating, accretion, explosion geometry, nuclear abundances, and turbulent convection. We also analyze how stochastic variation impacts our simulations. Contrary to results reported in prior studies examining the impacts of multidimensional progenitors, we observe similar shock revival times and explosion development in our simulations despite differences in initial compositions and structures. We find no discernible impact from the accretion of nonradial perturbations from a multi-D progenitor onto the stalled shock in the revival and strength of explosion, as fully developed neutrino-driven convection behind the stalled shock is similar for all our models. For models with physically sourced noise in the iron core, a strong oscillation of the shock occurs after bounce and deflects infall laterally, and accelerates the saturation of the lateral turbulent kinetic energy. An examination of model stochasticity shows that any prior expected impacts on explosive outcome due to convection-related perturbations lie below the detectable threshold of numerical variation.

Chen, Chien-Hui [North Carolina State University]↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗