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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO 2 doubling. In this study, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m -2 K -1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into the failure mode of the Chelyabinsk meteor from high-fidelity simulation

In 2013, an asteroid with a diameter of approximate 20 m broke up in the atmosphere above the Russian city of Chelyabinsk producing what is known as an airburst event. The event was recorded on video from multiple angles and a 500-kg fragment was recovered from Lake Chebarkul shortly thereafter. These aspects, coupled with the asteroid’s large size, distinguish the Chelyabinsk event as unique. In this study, we use the smoothed particle hydrodynamics method to examine the breakup mode of a Chelyabinsk-sized monolithic asteroid and probe whether a monolithic structure is consistent with observations from the Chelyabinsk event. We model the object as a homogeneous sphere with properties consistent with Chelyabinsk meteorites. We use planar-2D simulations to test the sensitivity of results to variations in the material model and to qualitatively inspect the cause of crack nucleation and fragmentation. We then compare results from a 3D simulation to observations from the event. Our 3D simulation predicts a burst height within 3 km of the observed peak luminosity suggesting the responsible asteroid may have been monolithic.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the National Off-Cycle Benefits of 2-Layer HVAC Technology Using Dynamometer Testing and a National Simulation Framework

Some CO2-reducing technologies have real-world benefits not captured by regulatory testing methods. This paper documents a two-layer heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system that facilitates faster engine warmup through strategic increased air recirculation. The performance of this technology was assessed on a 2020 Hyundai Sonata. Empirical performance of the technology was obtained through dynamometer tests at Argonne National Laboratory. Performance of the vehicle across multiple cycles and cell ambient temperatures with the two-layer technology active and inactive indicated fuel consumption reduction in nearly all cases. A thermally sensitive powertrain model, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's FASTSim Hot, was calibrated and validated against vehicle testing data. The developed model included the engine, cabin, and HVAC system controls. Validation of component thermal models and engine efficiency ensured accurate thermal dynamics, fuel consumption, and two-layer benefit. The real-world benefit of the two-layer technology was calculated by simulating the validated powertrain model across a representative test matrix comparing performance with and without the two-layer system. Simulation across the test matrix revealed a real-world representative benefit of 0.0835%. Analysis of test matrix results at the regional level revealed the most benefit in cold climates and rural regions. Mean results across cycle length sensitivity simulations revealed a larger real-world benefit of 0.0872%. These benefit values can be considered a more accurate assessment of real-world technology performance. Future work is planned to explore the requisite number of drive cycles to ensure the full technology benefit is captured.

2-layer↗
DOE OSTI2022

Relative Controls of Vapor Pressure Deficit and Soil Water Stress on Canopy Conductance in Global Simulations by an Earth System Model

Climate change impacts drought and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) that critically influence land-atmosphere water vapor and CO 2 exchange. There is a lack of model-based global evaluation of the relative roles of the two types of water stresses in limiting canopy conductance (G c ). Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we conducted four land-atmosphere coupled simulations for the historical period with and without a plant hydraulics scheme (PHS) and under present-day and quadrupling of CO 2 concentrations. By fitting an empirical model of G c to the E3SM simulations, we evaluated the sensitivity of G c to water stresses caused by VPD and soil water (SW) in the growing season. The empirical model is based on a multiplicative algorithm that adjusts G c according to VPD, soil water saturation, and their interaction. Our results show positive trends of VPD over land during the historical period, with large differences between simulations with and without PHS. Despite the differences, a majority of land pixels that experience both SW and VPD stresses are in semi-arid and tropical savanna ecosystems. G c is more sensitive to VPD than SW in less than 20% of land pixels where the empirical model provides a good fit for the simulated G c . Ignoring SW and VPD interaction may underestimate the relative role of VPD on G c by as much as 28%. Including PHS accentuates SW stress limitation on G c by simulating wetter soil and higher ET that lower VPD. Elevated CO 2 reduces G c by increasing water use efficiency and ameliorates SW stress on G c .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DECADE cosmic shear project III: validation of analysis pipeline using spatially inhomogeneous data

We present the pipeline for the cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog consisting of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. The catalog derives from a large number of disparate observing programs and is therefore more inhomogeneous across the sky compared to existing lensing surveys. First, we use simulated data-vectors to show the sensitivity of our constraints to different analysis choices in our inference pipeline, including sensitivity to residual systematics. Next we use simulations to validate our covariance modeling for inhomogeneous datasets. Finally, we show that our choices in the end-to-end cosmic shear pipeline are robust against inhomogeneities in the survey, by extracting relative shifts in the cosmology constraints across different subsets of the footprint/catalog and showing they are all consistent within 1σ to 2σ. This is done for forty-six subsets of the data and is carried out in a fully consistent manner: for each subset of the data, we re-derive the photometric redshift estimates, shear calibrations, survey transfer functions, the data vector, measurement covariance, and finally, the cosmological constraints. Our results show that existing analysis methods for weak lensing cosmology can be fairly resilient towards inhomogeneous datasets. This also motivates exploring a wider range of image data for pursuing such cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal PMU design based on sampling model and sensitivity analysis

The precise measurements of the synchrophasor and frequency from phasor measurement units (PMUs) are widely used in power grid applications. With the improvement of the technique, applications always require stable dynamic performance and higher accuracy for the synchrophasor and frequency measurements, which is challenging for PMU development. To evaluate the contribution of PMU hardware to measurement accuracy, this paper proposes a general-purpose sampling model to analyze the measurement error. In the proposed sampling model, a strict mathematical derivation is derived, where its error is purely determined by the parameters of the PMU hardware. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by three methods, including mathematical analysis, computer simulation, and variance-based sensitivity analysis. Through the sensitivity analysis, this paper establishes the systematic formulation and the inclusion of synchrophasor, frequency, and ROCOF. Experimental results based on the real-world testbench involving distribution-level PMUs match the mathematical analysis conclusion, which verifies the correctness of the general-purpose sampling model. Furthermore, a strategy for the optimal PMU design is proposed, which could guide PMU design in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large-Eddy Simulations of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Associated with Cold-Air Outbreaks during the ACTIVATE Campaign. Part I: Case Setup and Sensitivities to Large-Scale Forcings

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is able to capture key boundary layer (BL) turbulence and cloud processes. Yet, large-scale forcing and surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat are often poorly prescribed for LESs. We derive these quantities from measurements and reanalysis obtained for two cold-air outbreak (CAO) events during Phase I of the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) in February–March 2020. We study the two contrasting CAO cases by performing LES and test the sensitivity of BL structure and clouds to large-scale forcings and turbulent heat fluxes. Profiles of atmospheric state and large-scale divergence and surface turbulent heat fluxes obtained from ERA5 data agree reasonably well with those derived from ACTIVATE field measurements for both cases at the sampling time and location. Therefore, we adopt the time-evolving heat fluxes, wind, and advective tendencies profiles from ERA5 data to drive the LES. We find that large-scale thermodynamic advective tendencies and wind relaxations are important for the LES to capture the evolving observed BL meteorological states characterized by the hourly ERA5 data and validated by the observations. We show that the divergence (or vertical velocity) is important in regulating the BL growth driven by surface heat fluxes in LESs. The evolution of liquid water path is largely affected by the evolution of surface heat fluxes. The liquid water path simulated in LES agrees reasonably well with the ACTIVATE measurements. This study paves the path to investigate aerosol–cloud–meteorology interactions using LES informed and evaluated by ACTIVATE field measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations

The major goals for the Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) were to develop detailed numerical simulations of disruptive transients in tokamak experiments and to use them in theoretical studies of the thermal-quench (TQ) and current-quench (CQ) phases of disruption. The University of Wisconsin-Madison component of CTTS contributed relevant development for the NIMROD code (https://nimrodteam.org) and applied it to disruptions that involve global vertical displacement. Code-development contributions include boundary conditions that represent sheath effects which occur when tokamak plasma is in contact with the surrounding vessel wall during vertical displacement events (VDEs). We also implemented a reduced model of energetic runaway electrons (REs) to simulate the effect of these energetic electrons on the CQ phase of tokamak disruptions. Our computations of VDEs include 2D and 3D verification through benchmarks with two other widely used macroscale plasma simulation codes, M3D-C1 and JOREK. Over nonlinear evolution to the final termination of plasma current, the 2D simulation results on magnetic axis location, toroidal current, and halo current track each other well. With the 3D benchmark computation, all three codes found the same qualitative behavior of the asymmetric instabilities having increasing growth rate after contact with the wall, followed by nonlinear excitation of other toroidal harmonics. Our NIMROD computations for an idealized configuration show agreement with an analytical assessment by V. D. Pustovitov [Nucl. Fusion 55, 113032 (2015)] that the plasma and non-ideal wall remain in force-balance such that net forces only result from magnetic stresses over the outer surface of the wall. Our study of the influence of boundary conditions on VDEs shows that extended-MHD simulations of VDEs are sensitive to electron energy transport to the wall and that boundary conditions on flow are only significant to the extent that they influence the electron energy transport. Resistive-MHD NIMROD simulations of the tokamak discharges in the Madison Symmetric Torus show that magnetic perturbations of poloidal wavenumber m=3 lead to chaotic magnetic topology over the edge region, which helps deconfine energetic electrons. A second area of RE study shows that the coupled resistive MHD/reduced RE model reproduces the resistive-hose particle-beam instability. With respect to educational opportunities, this effort involved and supported four graduate students at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and one postdoctoral associate. The results of this study have been disseminated through journal publications, conference presentations, technical reports, and PhD dissertations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Propagating neutronic uncertainties for FFTF LOFWOS Test #13

The safety evaluation conducted for licensing a Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) may require modeling transients with best-estimate calculation tools that must first be validated against real-world measurements. To provide the community with a valuable benchmarking opportunity for validating SFR analysis tools and methods, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13. The impact of nuclear data uncertainties on neutronics parameters was previously investigated based on the COMMARA-2.0 covariance matrix. Since the transient simulation results are very sensitive to certain reactivity coefficients, it was decided to employ rigorous uncertainty propagation methods to quantify the impact of nuclear data uncertainties on the best-estimate predication of FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. The DAKOTA code is used to propagate neutronic uncertainties through SAS4A/SASSYS-1 transient simulations, while taking into account spatial and reaction-wise correlations within these uncertainties. This study shows that the remaining discrepancies observed between the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) best-estimate results and the experimental measurements can be partly explained by the uncertainty associated with Gas Expansion Module (GEM) worth, which contributes the majority of the overall nuclear data uncertainty on the output from the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13 transient simulation. This study also confirmed the importance of including spatial and reaction-wise correlations of nuclear data uncertainties on feedback coefficients in the uncertainty propagation to avoid under-estimating their impact during the transient simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase-field modeling of aging-induced microstructure evolution in pentaerythritol tetranitrate thin films and ramifications for shock initiation

Aging of energetic materials may change performance and affect their safety and reliability, but the relationship between microstructure changes induced by aging and consequent performance changes has not been fully established. This work presents results of phase-field method simulations used to model microstructure evolution of vapor-deposited pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) thin films. Simulated aging is shown to induce grain coarsening and substantial changes of the configuration of porosity in the film: Specifically, we show that porosity tends to concentrate in large pores to a greater degree in aged films, a state that is arrived at by closure or consolidation of small pores. To evaluate the performance of the as-deposited and aged films, we perform two-dimensional hydrocode flyer-film impact simulations that incorporate the phase-field output microstructures directly, permitting us to connect features therein to changes in reactivity, a key metric of energy output for shock initiation. The results demonstrate that declining sensitivity obtained for the simulated aged films can be correlated with the loss of fine-structured pores relatively early in the aging process, while long-term microstructure evolution that gradually alters the shape of large, branching pores is less impactful. Finally, we discuss commonalities and discrepancies between our simulation results and high-throughput initiation experiments on shock initiation of aged PETN thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Studies, Gap Analysis, and Benchmark Experiment Optimization for Reactor Physics and Criticality Safety Applications

Many new reactor designs, such as advanced reactors and micro reactors, have materials that lack nuclear data validation. This is also true for many other applications in criticality safety and global security. Both differential and integral experiments are needed to validate cross-section data. Without this, a user cannot have confidence in the predicted results of a radiation-transport code. This work describes an approach called ARCHIMEDES (Application Relevant Critical/Subcritical HEU/Pu-based Integral Measurements for Enhancing Data and Evaluating Sensitivities) to design new criticality experiments that have similar k eff cross-section sensitivities to an application of interest. This process involves simulations to generate cross-section sensitivities to a parameter of interest (such as k eff ), a gap analysis to determine which existing benchmarks are most similar to the application, and an experiment optimization. Recently, there has been a great deal of interest in the reactor physics community on advanced reactors, micro reactors, and accelerator driven systems (ADS). This work will apply the described method to specific examples in this area. The focus of this work will be on the sensitivity study and gap analysis, while future work will include experiment design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Studies, Gap Analysis, and Benchmark Experiment Optimization for Reactor Applications

In regards to nuclear data, some reactor applications may lack validation experiments, which reduces confidence in predicted results. This is especially true for emerging advanced reactor, micro reactor, and Accelerator Driven System (ADS) designs. This work presents an approach to design new criticality experiments that have similar k eff cross section sensitivities to an application of interest. This process involves simulations to generate cross-section sensitivities to a parameter of interest (such as k eff ), a gap analysis to determine which existing benchmarks are most similar to the application, and an experiment optimization. This work focuses on cross-section sensitives and gap analysis for three examples relevant to the reactor physics community including a Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) type-design, Kilopower (a space reactor design), and a lead-bismuth eutectic cooled accelerator-driven system (ADS) to transmute minor actinides.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Alpha Particles Incident on MKID Chips for Quantum Sensitivity Analysis

• Background noise from ionizing decay poses challenges for MKIDs due to their sensitivity to small energy depositions. • Our group bakes the MKID housing lid in radon to study effects of alphas from daughter isotopes in the decay chain. • The impact of alpha particles on the chip depends on their energy, making their distribution key to characterizing and reducing noise in superconducting quantum devices.

Hall, Matthew [Southern California U.]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Timescale Dependence of the Precipitation Response to CO 2 ‐Induced Warming in Millennial‐Length Climate Simulations

Abstract Previous work has shown that estimates of climate sensitivity vary over time in response to abrupt CO 2 forcing in climate model simulations. The energy fluxes that drive warming in response to increasing CO 2 also influence precipitation, which prompts the question: Does the precipitation response therefore also vary over time? We investigate by examining the response of precipitation to warming forced by greenhouse gases—the hydrological sensitivity—in a set of millennial‐length climate simulations with multiple climate models, Long Run Model Intercomparison Project (LongRunMIP). We compare hydrological sensitivity calculated from three different timescales of the simulations: years 1–20, 21–150, and 151–1000. We show that the hydrological sensitivity lacks a consistent dependence on timescale, in contrast to climate sensitivity. Decomposition of the surface energy budget reveals that the relative muting of the multi‐model mean hydrological sensitivity is driven by surface downwelling shortwave flux.

Him (Kinen) Kao, Wing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stellarator Design Exploration Using Symbolic-Regression Neutronics Surrogates

Systems codes require fast, simplified models to rapidly evaluate fusion power plant concepts, but neutronics analyses are often a computational bottleneck. Here, to address this, surrogate models for key neutronics responses have been developed using 3-D neutronics-ready models built with the open-source code ParaStell from a database of stellarator equilibria. Neutronics responses such as tritium breeding ratio (TBR), nuclear heating, and neutron-induced radiation damage displacements per atom (dpa) were simulated using OpenMC. Through sensitivity analysis and symbolic regression (SR), simple power-law formulas were derived connecting these neutronics responses to global stellarator parameters, including fusion power, plasma surface area, and plasma elongation. Validation shows these formulas can predict the simulation results with low error, enabling quick and accurate assessment of neutronics requirements in stellarator design exploration activities with systems codes.

Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nearest neighbour distributions: New statistical measures for cosmological clustering

ABSTRACT The use of summary statistics beyond the two-point correlation function to analyse the non-Gaussian clustering on small scales, and thereby, increasing the sensitivity to the underlying cosmological parameters, is an active field of research in cosmology. In this paper, we explore a set of new summary statistics – the k-Nearest Neighbour Cumulative Distribution Functions (kNN-CDF). This is the empirical cumulative distribution function of distances from a set of volume-filling, Poisson distributed random points to the k-nearest data points, and is sensitive to all connected N-point correlations in the data. The kNN-CDF can be used to measure counts in cell, void probability distributions, and higher N-point correlation functions, all using the same formalism exploiting fast searches with spatial tree data structures. We demonstrate how it can be computed efficiently from various data sets – both discrete points, and the generalization for continuous fields. We use data from a large suite of N-body simulations to explore the sensitivity of this new statistic to various cosmological parameters, compared to the two-point correlation function, while using the same range of scales. We demonstrate that the use of kNN-CDF improves the constraints on the cosmological parameters by more than a factor of 2 when applied to the clustering of dark matter in the range of scales between 10 and $40\, h^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}$. We also show that relative improvement is even greater when applied on the same scales to the clustering of haloes in the simulations at a fixed number density, both in real space, as well as in redshift space. Since the kNN-CDF are sensitive to all higher order connected correlation functions in the data, the gains over traditional two-point analyses are expected to grow as progressively smaller scales are included in the analysis of cosmological data, provided the higher order correlation functions are sensitive to cosmology on the scales of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elimination LArTPC Simulation Uncertainty With Modifcations to TPC Wire Waveforms

This paper introduces a novel approach to reducing systematic uncertainties in LArTPC detector simulations, which arise from known detector effects that are challenging and computationally intensive to model. The proposed method involves modifying simulated waveforms based on observed discrepancies in ionization signals from the TPC between actual data and simulations. This approach reduces the sensitivity to detailed detector modeling and decreases the computational resources required for accurate simulations.

Mktchyan, Karen↗