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DOE OSTI2021

Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seroprevalence of Brucella spp. and Rift Valley fever virus among slaughterhouse workers in Isiolo County, northern Kenya

Brucella spp. and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) are classified as priority zoonotic agents in Kenya, based on their public health and socioeconomic impact on the country. Data on the pathogen-specific and co-exposure levels is scarce due to limited active surveillance. This study investigated seroprevalence and co-exposure of Brucella spp. and RVFV and associated risk factors among slaughterhouse workers in Isiolo County, northern Kenya. A cross-sectional serosurvey was done in all 19 slaughterhouses in Isiolo County, enrolling 378 participants into the study. The overall seroprevalences for Brucella spp. and RVFV were 40.2% (95% CI: 35.2–45.4) and 18.3% (95% CI: 14.5–22.5), respectively while 10.3% (95% CI 7.4%-13.8%) of individuals were positive for antibodies against both Brucella spp. and RVFV. Virus neutralisation tests (VNT) confirmed anti-RVFV antibodies in 85% of ELISA-positive samples. Our seroprevalence results were comparable to community-level seroprevalences previously reported in the area. Since most of the study participants were not from livestock-keeping households, our findings attribute most of the detected infections to occupational exposure. The high exposure levels indicate slaughterhouse workers are the most at-risk population and there is need for infection, prevention, and control programs among this high-risk group. This is the first VNT confirmation of virus-neutralising antibodies among slaughterhouse workers in Isiolo County and corroborates reports of the area being a high-risk RVFV area as occasioned by previously reported outbreaks. This necessitates sensitization campaigns to enhance awareness of the risks involved and appropriate mitigation measures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Rate calculations for the simultaneous vibrational relaxation and dissociation of nitrogen

Experimental data on vibrational relaxation and dissociation rates in highly nonequilibrium gases are scarce. Recently there have been several attempts at generating these rates by direct calculation of inelastic collision cross-sections. Some issues that need to be considered if such calculations are to be used as a basis for analysis and design are examined. In particular, the following are examined: (1) collinear vs 3D scattering models, (2) accurate intermolecular potentials, (3) closed channels and acceleration schemes, (4) thermal averaging and thermal rates, and (5) code validation. It has been necessary to confront these issues during the course of N2-N2 and N2-N inelastic cross-section calculations.

Gonzales, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Contemporaneous Formation of Chondrules in the Al-26-MG-26 System for Ordinary and CO Chondrites

Chronometer using the short-lived extinct-nuclide (26)Al has been applied to chondrules in order to obtain of their formation ages. Previous studies were mostly performed on Al-rich chondrules, which constitute only 1% of all chondrules, because of their high Al/Mg ratios. Recently, (26)Al ages of major ferromagnesian chondrules in least equilibrated ordinary chondrites (OC) have been obtained. However, (26)Al ages of ferromagnesian chondrules in least equilibrated carbonaceous chondrites (CC) are very limited. Particularly, age data of FeO-poor (Type I) chondrules in CC have been scarcely obtained, because of their fine textures and lack of phases with high Al/Mg (>100) ratios. In order to clarify the origin and formation processes of chondrules, we started systematic investigations on Type I chondrules in the most pristine CC (CO3.0 Yamato-81020), by examining textures, bulk chemical compositions, (26)Al ages and oxygen isotopic compositions. We find Type I chondrules in CC formed contemporaneously with ferromagnesian chondrules in OC.

Kurahashi, E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Experimental Constraints on the Chemical Differentiation of Mercurys Mantle

Mercury is known as being the most reduced terrestrial planet with the highest core/mantle ratio. Results from MESSENGER spacecraft have shown that its surface is FeO-poor (2-4 wt%) and S-rich (up to 6-7 wt%), which confirms the reducing nature of its silicate mantle. In addition several features suggest important melting stages of the Mercurian mantle: widespread volcanic deposits on its surface, a high crustal thickness (approximately 10% of the planet's volume) and chemical compositions of its surface suggesting several stages of differentiation and remelting processes. Therefore it is likely that igneous processes like magma ocean crystallization and continuous melting have induced chemical and mineralogical heterogeneities in the Mercurian mantle. The extent and nature of compositional variations produced by partial melting remains poorly constrained for the particular compositions of Mercury (very reducing conditions, low FeO-contents and high sulfur-contents). Melting experiments with bulk Mercury-analogue compositions are scarce and with poorly con-trolled starting compositions. Therefore additional experimental data are needed to better understand the differentiation processes that lead to the observed chemical compositions of Mercury's surface.

Boujibar, A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Physics and Chemistry of Te and HgTe-based Ternary Melts

Historically, the theoretical treatment of the liquid phases has always been more difficult and complicated than that for solid and gas phases. A liquid has no lattice structure as crystalline solids and the atoms/molecules in the liquid can migrate through it relatively rapidly. On the other hand, it is also interacting with many other atoms/molecules so that the simplifications of the kinetic theory of gases cannot be employed. For more complicated liquids, such as the liquids of high ionicity and those containing hydrogen bonds and electric dipoles, the understanding is far from complete. At the same time, accurate information on the physics and chemistry of semiconductor melts is needed for the quantitative descriptions of the process of crystal growth from melt. The pre-crystallization phenomena in the liquid phase are critical because the properties of the grown crystals depend on the state and structure of the melt as well as the thermal history of the melt during solidification process. However, the data on the liquid phase, such as thermophysical properties of semiconductor melts are scarce, especially for the HgTe-based II-VI ternary compound semiconductors because of their high vapor pressure and extreme toxicity. Analysis of the thermophysical properties of the melt can provide information about structural transitions of the melt during the solidification process. From a broader point of view, the structure of liquids is much more complicated than the crystalline solids, especially the relaxation behavior through different thermal histories. The theory of hetero-phase fluctuations of liquids is applicable to any many-body systems including condensed-matter physics, field theory, physics of nuclear-matter, cosmology, biology and even sociology. This book summarizes the physics and chemistry from the experimental measurements and theoretical analyses of phase diagram, thermodynamic properties, density, thermal conductivity, viscosity, and electrical conductivity on the binary, pseudo-binary and ternary melts of the most advanced IR-detector material systems of HgCdTe and HgZnTe as well as the analyses of these results. The main objectives of this study are: (1) to provide the phase diagrams and thermodynamic properties of Hg-Cd-Te and Hg-Zn-Te systems through quantitatively fitting the experimental data by assuming an associated solution model for the liquid phase, (2) to experimentally measure the thermophysical properties of the Hg-Cd-Te and Hg-Zn-Te melts, including density, viscosity, electrical conductivity and thermal conductivity as functions of temperature and composition and (3) to enhance the fundamental knowledge of hetero-phase fluctuations and relaxation phenomena in the melts and extend our understanding of the solidification process in order to interpret the experimental results of crystal growth so as to improve the melt growth processes of the compound semiconductor. The physics and chemistry of Te and HgTe-based ternary melts were explored through the studies of the structural transformation during melting, the supercooling during solidification, the relaxation phenomena after rapid cooling of the melts and the metal-semiconductor transition in the melts through the analyses of electrical conductivity and Lorenz number. An in-depth study on the thermophysical properties and their time-dependent structural dynamic processes taking place in the vicinity of the solid-liquid phase transition of the narrow homogeneity range HgTe-based ternary semiconductors as well as the analysis of the homogenization process in the melt will also be presented.

Thermophysical properties↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigating the role of strangeness in baryon–antibaryon annihilation at the LHC

Annihilation dynamics plays a fundamental role in the baryon–antibaryon interaction ($B–\bar{B}$) at low-energy and its strength and range are crucial in the assessment of possible baryonic bound states. Experimental data on annihilation cross sections are available for the $p–\bar{p}$ system but not in the low relative momentum region. Data regarding the $B–\bar{B}$ interaction with strange degrees of freedom are extremely scarce, hence the modeling of the annihilation contributions is mainly based on nucleon–antinucleon ($N–\bar{N}$) results, when available. In this letter we present a measurement of the $p–\bar{p}$, $p–\bar{Λ}$⊕$p–{Λ}$ and $Λ–\bar{Λ}$ interaction using correlation functions in the relative momentum space in high-multiplicity triggered pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$=13 TeV recorded by ALICE at the LHC. In the $p–\bar{p}$ system the couplings to the mesonic channels in different partial waves are extracted by adopting a coupled-channel approach with recent χEFT potentials. The inclusion of these inelastic channels provides good agreement with the data, showing a significant presence of the annihilation term down to zero momentum. Predictions obtained using the Lednický–Lyuboshits formula and scattering parameters obtained from heavy-ion collisions, hence mainly sensitive to elastic processes, are compared with the experimental $p–\bar{Λ}$⊕$p–{Λ}$ and $Λ–\bar{Λ}$ correlations. The model describes the $Λ–\bar{Λ}$ data and underestimates the $p–\bar{Λ}$⊕$p–{Λ}$ data in the region of momenta below 200 MeV/c. The observed deviation indicates a different contribution of annihilation channels to the two systems containing strange hadrons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cross sections for neutron-induced reactions from surrogate data: Reexamining the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation for ( n , n ' ) and ( n , 2 n ) reactions

Background: Modeling nuclear reaction networks for nuclear science applications and for simulations of astrophysical environments relies on cross section data for a vast number of reactions, many of which have never been measured. Cross sections for neutron-induced reactions on unstable nuclei are particularly scarce, since they are the most difficult to measure. Consequently, we must rely on theoretical predictions or indirect measurements to obtain the requisite reaction data. For compound nuclear reactions, the surrogate reaction method can be used to determine many cross sections of interest. Purpose: Earlier work has demonstrated that cross sections for neutron-induced fission and radiative neutron capture can be determined from a combination of surrogate reaction data and theory. For the fission case, it was shown that the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation, which significantly simplifies the implementation of the surrogate method, can be employed. Capture cross sections cannot be obtained, and require a detailed description of the surrogate reaction process. Here, we examine the validity of the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation for determining unknown (n, n') and (n, 2n) cross sections from surrogate data. Methods: Using statistical reaction calculations with realistic parametrizations, we investigate first whether the assumptions underlying the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation are valid for (n, n') and (n, 2n) reactions on representative target nuclei. We then produce simulated surrogate reaction data and assess the impact of applying the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation when extracting (n, n') and (n, 2n) cross sections in situations where the approximation is not strictly justified. Results: We find that peak cross sections can be estimated using the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation, but the shape of the (n, n') and (n, 2n) cross sections, especially for low neutron energies, cannot be reliably determined without accounting for the angular-momentum differences between the neutron-induced and surrogate reaction. Conclusions: To obtain reliable (n, n') and (n, 2n) cross sections from surrogate reaction data, a detailed description of the surrogate reaction mechanisms is required. To do so for the compound-nucleus energies and decay channels relevant to these reactions, it becomes necessary to extend current modeling capabilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ab-initio molecular dynamics study of eutectic chloride salt: MgCl2–NaCl–KCl

Ionic liquid materials are viable candidates as a heat transfer fluid (HTF) in a wide range of applications, notably within concentrated solar power (CSP) technology and molten salt reactors (MSRs). For next-generation CSP and MSR technologies that strive for higher power generation efficiency, a HTF with wide liquid phase range and energy storage capabilities is crucial. Studies have shown that eutectic chloride salts exhibit thermal stability at high temperatures, high heat storage capacity, and are less expensive than nitrate and carbonate salts. However, the experimental data needed to fully evaluate the potential of eutectic chloride salts as a HTF contender are scarce and entail large uncertainties. Considering the high cost and potential hazards associated with the experimental methods used to determine the properties of ionic liquids, molecular modeling can be used as a viable alternative resource. In this study, the eutectic ternary chloride salt MgCl 2 –NaCl–KCl is modeled using ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations (AIMDs) in the liquid phase. Using the simulated data, the thermophysical and transport properties of eutectic chloride salt can be calculated: density, viscosity, heat capacity, diffusion coefficient, and ionic conductivity. For an initial model validation, experimental pair-distribution function data were obtained from X-ray total scattering techniques and compared to the theoretical pair-distribution function. Additionally, theoretical viscosity values are compared to experimental viscosity values for a similar system. The results provide a starting foundation for a MgCl 2 –NaCl–KCl model that can be extended to predict other fundamental properties.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

NASA NTRS2006

Estimating Temperature Retrieval Accuracy Associated With Thermal Band Spatial Resolution Requirements for Center Pivot Irrigation Monitoring and Management

This study explores the use of synthetic thermal center pivot irrigation scenes to estimate temperature retrieval accuracy for thermal remote sensed data, such as data acquired from current and proposed Landsat-like thermal systems. Center pivot irrigation is a common practice in the western United States and in other parts of the world where water resources are scarce. Wide-area ET (evapotranspiration) estimates and reliable water management decisions depend on accurate temperature information retrieval from remotely sensed data. Spatial resolution, sensor noise, and the temperature step between a field and its surrounding area impose limits on the ability to retrieve temperature information. Spatial resolution is an interrelationship between GSD (ground sample distance) and a measure of image sharpness, such as edge response or edge slope. Edge response and edge slope are intuitive, and direct measures of spatial resolution are easier to visualize and estimate than the more common Modulation Transfer Function or Point Spread Function. For these reasons, recent data specifications, such as those for the LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission), have used GSD and edge response to specify spatial resolution. For this study, we have defined a 400-800 m diameter center pivot irrigation area with a large 25 K temperature step associated with a 300 K well-watered field surrounded by an infinite 325 K dry area. In this context, we defined the benchmark problem as an easily modeled, highly common stressing case. By parametrically varying GSD (30-240 m) and edge slope, we determined the number of pixels and field area fraction that meet a given temperature accuracy estimate for 400-m, 600-m, and 800-m diameter field sizes. Results of this project will help assess the utility of proposed specifications for the LDCM and other future thermal remote sensing missions and for water resource management.

Ryan, Robert E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Foliar elemental distribution in Blepharidium guatemalense assessed by synchrotron X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy and colorimetric optical microscopy

The hyperaccumulation phenomenon holds significant potential for Ni agromining in ultramafic areas; however, data on tropical hyperaccumulator species, particularly regarding metal distribution and tolerance mechanisms, remain scarce. Here, this study characterized the foliar elemental distribution of Blepharidium guatemalense, analyzed its metal localization at both tissue and cellular levels, and quantified its Ni accumulation when grown in Brazilian ultramafic soil. Plants were grown in pots for 90 days, and Ni concentrations in the aerial biomass and bio-ore were determined. Synchrotron-based micro-X-ray fluorescence (S-µXRF) was used to assess metal distribution in tissues, supplemented by microscopic examination with dimethylglyoxime (DMG) to visualize Ni accumulation in specific cell types. B. guatemalense reached 19,000 mg kg −1 Ni in leaves. Processing leaf biomass produced ash containing 24 wt% Ni, indicating promising metal-recovery potential for the species. S-µXRF revealed that Ni was predominantly localized in the central and secondary veins of the leaves, suggesting efficient vascular transport. Microscopic analysis using the colorimetric reagent DMG further showed that Ni accumulation occurs near the epidermis and phloem, suggesting that B. guatemalense employs specific physiological mechanisms for Ni translocation, potentially supporting both defense and growth functions. These results establish B. guatemalense as a promising candidate for large-scale Ni agromining in tropical regions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

169 Tm ( n , γ ) cross section and statistical decay properties from measurements at the DANCE facility

Background: Radiative neutron capture on thulium, which is a monoisotopic element, plays a role in different applications such as nuclear astrophysics or nuclear burning environments. Considerable discrepancies—reaching 20%—exist between evaluations in the unresolved-resonance region. Furthermore, experimental data on statistical 𝛾 decay in odd-odd rare-earth nuclei is scarce. There are still open questions about the systematics of the so-called scissors mode in the 𝑀⁢1 photon strength function, especially in odd-odd nuclei. Purpose: This work is focused on two main topics—deriving experimental 169 Tm ⁢(𝑛,𝛾) cross section and studying statistical 𝛾 decay of 170 Tm, in particular properties of the scissors mode. Methods: The capture experiments to obtain experimental cross section were performed at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center using the time-of-flight technique and employing the Detector for Advanced Neutron Capture Experiments. Measured coincident 𝛾-ray spectra were also compared with statistical simulations using the dicebox code to test different models of level density and photon strength functions. Results: The capture cross section was determined from 1.8 eV to 0.97 MeV, the broadest neutron-energy range ever measured for this isotope. Several new resonances have been observed. The statistical 𝛾 decay of 170 Tm cannot be reproduced without a scissors mode resonance centered at ≈ 3.3MeV. Conclusions: The measured cross section in the unresolved-resonance region is generally lower than the latest evaluations. The derived 169 Tm 𝑠-process abundance is expected to increase by a factor of 1.26, while the changes of the abundances of elements heavier than 169 Tm are in the order of 0.2%. The scissors mode properties in 170 Tm are similar to those deduced in previous analyses of neighboring nuclei 168 Er and 166 Ho .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Hydroxide-Assisted Bonding of Ultra-Low-Expansion Glass

A process for hydroxide-assisted bonding has been developed as a means of joining optical components made of ultra-low-expansion (ULE) glass, while maintaining sufficiently precise alignment between. The process is intended mainly for use in applications in which (1) bonding of glass optical components by use of epoxy does not enable attainment of the required accuracy and dimensional stability and (2) conventional optical contacting (which affords the required accuracy and stability) does not afford adequate bond strength. The basic concept of hydroxide-assisted bonding is not new. The development of the present process was prompted by two considerations: (1) The expertise in hydroxide-assisted bonding has resided in very few places and the experts have not been willing to reveal the details of their processes and (2) data on the reliability and strength attainable by hydroxide-assisted bonding have been scarce.

Abramovici, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2020

Propanal, an Interstellar Aldehyde - First Infrared Band Strengths and Other Properties of the Amorphous and Crystalline Forms

Chemical evolution in molecular clouds in the interstellar medium is well established, with the identification of over 200 molecules and molecular ions. Among the classes of interstellar organic compounds found are the aldehydes. However, laboratory work on the aldehydes has scarcely kept pace with astronomical discoveries as little quantitative solid-phase infrared (IR) data has been published on any of the aldehydes, and the same is true for important properties such as density, refractive indices, and vapor pressures. In this paper we examine the IR spectra of solid propanal (HC(O)CH2CH3, propionaldehyde), along with several physical properties, for both the amorphous and crystalline forms of the compound. The quantitative measurements we report, such as infrared intensities and optical constants, will be useful in laboratory investigations of the formation and evolution of propanal-containing ices, will serve as benchmark data for theoretical investigations, and will inform observational studies.

Yukiko Yagi Yarnall↗

DOE OSTI2021

The moderately defficient enzyme: Catalysis-related damage in vivo and its repair

Enzymes have in vivo lifespans. Analysis of lifespans – lifetime totals of catalytic turnovers – suggests that non-survivable collateral chemical damage from the very reactions that enzymes catalyze is a common but underdiagnosed cause of enzyme death. Analysis also implies that many enzymes are moderately deficient in that their active-site regions are not naturally as hardened against such collateral damage as they could be, leaving room for improvement by rational design or directed evolution. Enzyme lifespan might also be improved by engineering systems that repair otherwise fatal active-site damage, of which a handful are known and more are inferred to exist. Unfortunately, the data needed to design and execute such improvements is lacking: there are too few measurements of in vivo lifespan, and existing information on the extent, nature, and mechanisms of active-site damage and repair during normal enzyme operation is too scarce, anecdotal, and speculative to act on. Fortunately, advances in proteomics, metabolomics, cheminformatics, comparative genomics, and structural biochemistry now empower a systematic, data-driven approach to identify, predict, and validate instances of active-site damage and its repair. These capabilities would be practically useful in enzyme redesign and improvement of in-use stability, and could change thinking about which enzymes die young in vivo, and why.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The moderately defficient enzyme: Catalysis-related damage in vivo and its repair

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Moderately (D)efficient Enzyme: Catalysis-Related Damage In Vivo and Its Repair

Enzymes have in vivo life spans. Analysis of life spans, i.e., lifetime totals of catalytic turnovers, suggests that nonsurvivable collateral chemical damage from the very reactions that enzymes catalyze is a common but underdiagnosed cause of enzyme death. Analysis also implies that many enzymes are moderately deficient in that their active-site regions are not naturally as hardened against such collateral damage as they could be, leaving room for improvement by rational design or directed evolution. Enzyme life span might also be improved by engineering systems that repair otherwise fatal active-site damage, of which a handful are known and more are inferred to exist. Unfortunately, the data needed to design and execute such improvements are lacking: there are too few measurements of in vivo life span, and existing information about the extent, nature, and mechanisms of active-site damage and repair during normal enzyme operation is too scarce, anecdotal, and speculative to act on. Fortunately, advances in proteomics, metabolomics, cheminformatics, comparative genomics, and structural biochemistry now empower a systematic, data-driven approach for identifying, predicting, and validating instances of active-site damage and its repair. These capabilities would be practically useful in enzyme redesign and improvement of in-use stability and could change our thinking about which enzymes die young in vivo, and why.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin

The Mekong River (MR) crosses the borders and connects six countries, including China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It provides critical water resources and supports natural and agricultural ecosystems, socioeconomic development, and the livelihoods of the people living in this region. Understanding changes in the runoff of this important international river under projected climate change is critical for water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. However, research on long-term runoff dynamics for the MR and the underlying drivers of runoff variability remains scarce. Here, we analyse historical runoff variations from 1971 to 2020 based on runoff gauge data collected from eight hydrological stations along the MR. With these runoff data, we then evaluate the runoff simulation performance of five global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by four global climate models (GCMs) under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Furthermore, based on the best simulation combination, we quantify the impact of future climate change on river runoff changes in the MR. The result shows that the annual runoff in the MR has not changed significantly in the past 5 decades, while the establishment of dams and reservoirs in the basin visibly affected the annual runoff distribution. The ensemble-averaged result of the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis version 2 (WaterGAP2; i.e. GHM) forced by four GCMs has the best runoff simulation performance. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), the runoff of the MR is projected to increase significantly (p<0.05); e.g. 3.81 ± 3.47 m 3 s -1 a -1 (9 ± 8 % increase in 100 years) at the upper reach under RCP2.6 and 16.36 ± 12.44 m 3 s -1 a -1 (13 ±10 % increase in 100 years) at the lower reach under RCP6.0. In particular, under the RCP6.0 scenario, the increase in annual runoff is most pronounced in the middle and lower reaches, due to increased precipitation and snowmelt. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the runoff distribution in different seasons varies obviously, increasing the risk of flooding in the wet season and drought in the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗