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DOE OSTI2021

Bulk entropy is crucial to validate the second law of the extended black hole thermodynamics

The extended black hole thermodynamics in which the cosmological constant plays the role of pressure significantly enriches the phase structure of the theory. In order to understand the extended black hole thermodynamics more precisely, we let the value of the cosmological constant vary dynamically via tunneling from one vacuum to another in a black hole induced vacuum decay. In this process, entropy of the matter/energy released by a black hole is crucial to validate the second law of thermodynamics. In other words, without taking this bulk entropy into account, entropy associated with the black hole and cosmological horizons may not always increase. Since the bulk entropy is not represented by the black hole and the cosmological horizons, this result calls for a more careful interpretation of the holographic principle in which environmental effects are taken into account.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying contributions of ozone changes to global and arctic warming during the second half of the twentieth century

Ozone is the third most important greenhouse gas in driving global warming, mainly due to increased tropospheric ozone. About 50% of the growth of global tropospheric ozone since preindustrial time occurred during 1955–2005, with continued growth since then. Furthermore, this study quantifies the relative contributions of ozone changes during 1955–2005 to total observed global and Arctic climate changes by comparing CESM1 historical simulations with all anthropogenic and natural radiative forcings including realistic ozone changes, and with the same forcings except with constant ozone or well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHG). Results indicate that ozone changes during 1955–2005 have strongly enhanced the downwelling longwave flux and increased net shortwave flux at the surface, and thus significantly contributed about 0.15 °C of global mean surface warming, roughly 21%, 26% and 16% of the observed, all-forcing and WMGHG-driven trends, respectively. In the Arctic in the same period, corresponding ozone-driven warming was about 0.63 °C, roughly 48%, 40% and 25% of the same three trends. During 1979–2005, these ozone changes have markedly added about 0.25 × 10 6 km 2 to the decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), or roughly 25%, 48%, and 40% of the same three trends. Considering that the ozone-driven radiative forcing of about 0.22 (0.06) W·m –2 in 1955–2005 (1979–2005) was about 12% (6%) of the corresponding WMGHG forcing, ozone changes had contributed disproportionately to global and Arctic warming and Arctic sea ice decline during the second half of the twentieth century. Tropospheric ozone has shown relatively steady growth since 2006 and might have significantly contributed recent observed warming over the global and the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Observations and Predictions of Daytime Planetary-Boundary-Layer Heights and Surface Meteorological Variables in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the deployment of a large suite of in situ and remote sensing instrumentation, including eight 915-MHz wind-profiling radars, and surface meteorological stations. The evolution and annual variability of the daytime convective planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) height is investigated using the wind-profiling radars. Three models with different horizontal grid spacing are evaluated: the Rapid Refresh, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, and its nested version. The results are used to assess errors in the prediction of PBL height within the experimental and control versions of the models, with the experimental versions including changes and additions to the model parametrizations developed during the field campaign, and the control version using the parametrizations present in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational version of the models at the start of the project. Results show that the high-resolution models outperform the low-resolution versions, the experimental versions perform better compared with the control versions, model PBL height estimations are more accurate on cloud-free days, and model estimates of the PBL height growth rate are more accurate than model estimates of the rate of decay. Finally, using surface sensors, we assess surface meteorological variables, finding improved surface irradiance and, to a lesser extent, improved 2-m temperature in the experimental version of the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Daily grass reference evapotranspiration with Meteosat Second Generation shortwave radiation and reference ET products

Here we assess the accuracy of estimating daily grass reference evapotranspiration (PM-ET o ) using daily shortwave radiation (R s ) and reference evapotranspiration (ET REF ) products provided by the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite delivered by the Satellite Applications Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) framework. The accuracy of using reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data (R s ERA5 ) provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also evaluated. The assessments were performed using observed weather variables at 37 weather stations distributed across continental Portugal, where climate conditions range from semi-arid to humid, and 12 weather stations located in Azores islands, characterized by humid, windy and often cloudy conditions. This study's use of data from a variety of climate conditions contributed to a unique and innovative assessment of the usability of LSA-SAF and ERA5 products for ET o estimation. The first assessment focused on comparing LSA-SAF estimates of R s (R s LSA-SAF ) against ground stations (R s ground ). The results showed a good matching between the two R s data sets for continental Portugal but a tendency for R s LSA-SAF to under-estimate R s ground in the cloudy islands of Azores. ET o values computed using R s LSA-SAF data and observed temperature, humidity and wind speed (ET o LSA-SAF ) were then compared with PM-ET o estimates with ground-based data, which were used as benchmark; input data of temperature and humidity needed for PM-ET o were quality checked for surface aridity effects. It was observed that ET o LSA-SAF is strongly correlated with PM-ET o (R 2 > 0.97) for most locations in continental Portugal, with regression coefficient of a linear regression forced to the origin ranging between 0.95 and 1.05, mean root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 mm d –1 , and Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of modeling (EF) above 0.95. For most Azores locations, ET o LSA-SAF over-estimated PM-ET o . This is likely a consequence of the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of weather conditions that occur in these oceanic islands together with the different footprints of satellite (averaged over the pixel) and station observations. Reanalysis ERA5 shortwave radiation data presented similar behavior to the LSA-SAF products, however with slightly lower accuracy. The daily LSA-SAF ET REF product (ET REF LSA-SAF ) was assessed and results have shown a good accuracy of this product, with acceptable RMSE and high EF values, for continental Portugal but a low accuracy for the Azores islands. A simplified bias correction approach was shown to improve both ET o derived from the LSA-SAF products, namely for Azores stations, which seem to be representative of smaller areas. The use of the FAO-PM temperature approach (PMT) was also assessed using the R s LSA-SAF and R s ERA5 data, which showed a superiority of the LSA-SAF product for ET o estimations (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ). No significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed in terms of the median value of the RMSE when adopting ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Differently, results showed that using the R s LSA-SAF in the PMT approach (ET o PMT LSA-SAF ) produces significantly better RMSE results than ET o PMT and ET REF LSA-SAF . Overall, the performed assessment allows concluding that the use of R s LSA-SAF, and to a lesser extent the use of the R s ERA5 , highly improves the accuracy of computation of ET o when R s observations are not available, including when only temperature data are accessible. The use of the ET REF LSA-SAF product is a good alternative when observed weather data are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development and validation of a second-order thermal network model for residential buildings

Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems can maintain the space air temperature of residential buildings, either directly by heating/cooling the air, or indirectly via heat transfer to and from the building structure that acts as a thermal mass. Hence, HVAC systems can help achieve load shifting, peak load reduction, and/or energy cost saving, thus enabling grid-interactive HVAC operation. A home thermal model that can accurately reflect the dynamics of the space air and interior wall surface temperatures, is therefore valuable. This paper develops such a model using the standard RC (resistance-capacitance) approach. The model contains a virtual envelope node and an internal space node and is thus second-order. A hybrid parameter identification scheme, made up of the least-squares and optimal search methods, is also developed. The proposed model and scheme were validated using data collected from a test home. It was found that a modest amount of training data was sufficient to yield reliable parameter estimates and accurate prediction. It was also found that when making 24-hour-ahead prediction of the space air temperature, both methods had comparable performances when the training data began in a transition season. However, when they began in an HVAC season, the optimal search method performed better. Furthermore, the least-squares method is recommended during a transition season due to its lower computational burden, while the optimal search method is recommended during an HVAC season due to its better estimation performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems

For decades, uncertainty quantification techniques based on the spectral approach have been demonstrated to be computationally more efficient than the Monte Carlo method for a wide variety of problems, particularly when the dimensionality of the probability space is relatively low. The time-dependent generalized polynomial chaos (TD-gPC) is one such technique that uses an evolving orthogonal basis to better represent the stochastic part of the solution space in time. Here in this paper, we present a new numerical method that uses the concept of enriched stochastic flow maps to track the evolution of the stochastic part of the solution space in time. The computational cost of this proposed flow-driven stochastic chaos (FSC) method is an order of magnitude lower than TD-gPC for comparable solution accuracy. This gain in computational cost is realized because, unlike most existing methods, the number of basis vectors required to track the stochastic part of the solution space does not depend upon the dimensionality of the probability space. Four representative numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the FSC method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems in the context of stochastic dynamics of structures.

FSC↗

DOE OSTI2020

The second-generation Shifted Boundary Method and its numerical analysis

Recently, the Shifted Boundary Method (SBM) was proposed within the class of unfitted (or immersed, or embedded) finite element methods. By reformulating the original boundary value problem over a surrogate (approximate) computational domain, the SBM avoids integration over cut cells and the associated problematic issues regarding numerical stability and matrix conditioning. Accuracy is maintained by modifying the original boundary conditions using Taylor expansions. Hence the name of the method, that shifts the location and values of the boundary conditions. In this article, we present enhanced variational SBM formulations for the Poisson and Stokes problems with improved flexibility and robustness. These simplified variational forms allow to relax some of the assumptions required by the mathematical proofs of stability and convergence of earlier implementations. First, we show that these new SBM implementations can be proved asymptotically stable and convergent even without the rather restrictive assumption that the inner product between the normals to the true and surrogate boundaries is positive. Second, we show that it is not necessary to introduce a stabilization term involving the tangential derivatives of the solution at Dirichlet boundaries, therefore avoiding the calibration of an additional stabilization parameter. Finally, we prove enhanced L 2 -estimates without the cumbersome assumption – of earlier proofs – that the surrogate domain is convex. Instead we rely on a conventional assumption that the boundary of the true domain is smooth, which can also be replaced by requiring convexity of the true domain. The aforementioned improvements open the way to a more general and efficient implementation of the Shifted Boundary Method, particularly in complex three-dimensional geometries. We complement these theoretical developments with numerical experiments in two and three dimensions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Second-order invariant domain preserving approximation of the compressible Navier–Stokes equations

Here, we present a fully discrete approximation technique for the compressible Navier–Stokes equations that is second-order accurate in time and space, semi-implicit, and guaranteed to be invariant domain preserving. The restriction on the time step is the standard hyperbolic CFL condition, i.e. τ ≲ O ( h ) / V where V is some reference velocity scale and h the typical meshsize.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A first and second law analysis of a thermoresponsive polymer desiccant dehumidification and cooling cycle

Herein, we present a theoretical description for a new desiccant air conditioning cycle that uses thermoresponsive polymers instead of traditional desiccants. We use a combined first and second law analysis to demonstrate that this new cycle has three major advantages relative to the traditional case: (i) it can regenerate at lower temperatures, (ii) it can harvest liquid water and (iii) it has significantly higher coefficients of performance (COPs). For example, this new cycle can achieve a COP of 5.1 when regenerated at 95 degrees C, whereas the traditional desiccant cycle is limited to a COP of ~ 1. The fundamental origins of these advantages can be traced to the method of regeneration. The traditional desiccant cycle regenerates by flowing hot air over the desiccant, which provides a medium for gaseous water desorption. However, this also generates entropy and places a minimum temperature constraint on the hot air. In contrast, the thermoresponsive polymer cycle regenerates through a polymer phase transition. The polymer absorbs water vapor in humid air, and then it expels liquid water when raised above its transition temperature. This regeneration method generates liquid water that can be harvested and relaxes constraints on entropy generation and minimum temperature. The minimum regeneration temperature of the thermoresponsive cycle is only limited by the transition temperature of the polymer, which can be tuned through materials science. Due to its liquid water harvesting capability, the new cycle potentially eliminates water consumption when used with evaporative cooling, or it can be directly used for atmospheric water harvesting.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Aerodynamic effects on outer ash deposition rates in second generation atmospheric pressure oxy-coal combustion systems

Recent measurements in scenarios representative of second generation atmospheric pressure oxy-coal combustion systems have shown a significant increase in ash deposition rates in comparison to combustion in air. However, the causative mechanisms behind this increase have not been well understood. To fill this void, well-characterized experiments including fuel and deposit particle size distributions (PSDs) were coupled with highly resolved numerical simulations to isolate the aerodynamic effects impacting the deposition process such that mechanisms could be hypothesized. Three combustion scenarios (AIR, OXY27, OXY70) spanning a factor of three variation in flue gas volumetric flow rates were simulated and the deposition characteristics (impaction rates, deposit PSD, temperature, residence times, capture rates) tracked/predicted using a customized deposition module. The measured deposit PSD was significantly different from the PSD of the parent fuel indicating significant physio-chemical transformations (coalescence and particle growth in particular) at play. The use of simplistic modeling approaches (swelling parameter variations) to model particle growth led to inaccurate deposit ash PSD and rate predictions. A more satisfactory agreement between the measurements and simulations was obtained when the functional form of the parent fuel PSD (spread parameter) was modified to conform closely to the deposit PSD while still ensuring the fidelity of temperature and velocity predictions. Based on the measured ash compositions, identical capture criteria were employed across all three scenarios. Here this study further supports the theory that the ash deposition rates in these systems are dominated by aerodynamic effects with the ash PSD playing a dominant role.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Human cytochrome P450 17A1 structures with metabolites of prostate cancer drug abiraterone reveal substrate-binding plasticity and a second binding site

Abiraterone acetate is a first-line therapy for castration-resistant prostate cancer. This prodrug is deacetylated in vivo to abiraterone, which is a potent and specific inhibitor of cytochrome P450 17A1 (CYP17A1). CYP17A1 performs two sequential steps that are required for the biosynthesis of androgens that drive prostate cancer proliferation, analogous to estrogens in breast cancer. Abiraterone can be further metabolized in vivo on the steroid A ring to multiple metabolites that also inhibit CYP17A1. Despite its design as an active-site-directed substrate analog, abiraterone and its metabolites demonstrate mixed competitive/noncompetitive inhibition. To understand their binding, we solved the X-ray structures of CYP17A1 with three primary abiraterone metabolites. Despite different conformations of the steroid A ring and substituents, all three bound in the CYP17A1 active site with the steroid core packed against the I helix and the A ring C3 keto or hydroxyl oxygen forming a hydrogen bond with N202 similar to abiraterone itself. The structure of CYP17A1 with 3-keto, 5α-abiraterone was solved to 2.0 Å, the highest resolution to date for a CYP17A1 complex. This structure had additional electron density near the F/G loop, which is likely a second molecule of the inhibitor and which may explain the noncompetitive inhibition. Mutation of the adjacent Asn52 to Tyr positions its side chain in this space, maintains enzyme activity, and prevents binding of the peripheral ligand. Collectively, our findings provide further insight into abiraterone metabolite binding and CYP17A1 function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A second-order-in-time, explicit approach addressing the redundancy in the low-Mach, variable-density Navier-Stokes equations

A novel algorithm for explicit temporal discretization of the variable-density, low-Mach Navier-Stokes equations is presented here in this study. Recognizing there is a redundancy between the mass conservation equation, the equation of state, and the transport equation(s) for the scalar(s) which characterize the thermochemical state, and that it destabilizes explicit methods, we demonstrate how to analytically eliminate the redundancy and propose an iterative scheme to solve the resulting transformed scalar equations. The method obtains second-order accuracy in time regardless of the number of iterations, so one can terminate this subproblem once stability is achieved. Hence, flows with larger density ratios can be simulated while still retaining the efficiency, low cost, and parallelizability of an explicit scheme. The temporal discretization algorithm is used within a pseudospectral direct numerical simulation which extends the method of Kim, Moin, and Moser for incompressible flow to the variable-density, low-Mach setting, where we demonstrate stability for density ratios up to ~25.7.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A realistic guide misalignment model for the Second Target Station instruments at the Spallation Neutron Source

The Second Target Station (STS) at the Spallation Neutron Source, including a suite of initial instrument concepts, are being designed in Oak Ridge. The moderator size at STS is significantly smaller than that of the First Target Station, making the guide misalignment a more prominent concern. Here a realistic misalignment model based on Monte Carlo neutron ray tracing simulation was developed to evaluate the impacts of both the random misalignment and floor settlement on the performance of a toy model of 150 m straight guide system, and MENUS, an STS instrument concept with a typical guide design of two opposing Montel mirrors. The study shows that longer instruments, and instruments with complex curved mirrors/guides are sensitive to significant performance penalties due to misalignments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of the Second Target Station cold source moderators using an automated workflow

The Second Target Station (STS) at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory is designed to become the world’s highest peak-brightness spallation source of cold neutrons. Successful completion of the STS, which is currently in the preliminary design phase, will provide transformative new capabilities to examine novel materials for future technologies. At STS, neutrons will be generated by spallation reactions in a solid tungsten target. They will be moderated and thermalized in two cold (20 K) para-hydrogen moderators. Careful optimization of these moderators is essential to the project’s success. To find optimal moderator designs, an advanced optimization workflow integrates high-fidelity neutronics calculations using the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) transport code MCNP6.2 with state-of-the-art optimization algorithms in the Dakota optimization toolkit. For each design iteration, a parametrized solid CAD geometry is generated in Creo and automatically converted into an unstructured mesh geometry by Attila 4MC for the neutronics calculation with MCNP. Iterations repeat until optimal designs are found. Herein this paper presents the results of a sensitivity and optimization study for the cylindrical and tube moderators. Both moderators can be optimized for maximum peak brightness, maximum time-integrated brightness, or any combination between these extremes. Maximum peak brightness is achieved by using smaller optimal dimensions of the moderators, whereas maximum time-integrated brightness is achieved by using larger dimensions. A Pareto front details the designs that optimally balance both brightness metrics. The Pareto front can be found in only 40–110 iterations with 4–5 design parameters when using the efficient global and Pareto-set optimization algorithms in Dakota. Additionally, important engineering constraints can be taken into account, such as the coupling between the cylindrical moderator radius and aluminum vessel wall thicknesses required to ensure structural integrity of the vessels. This interaction has a significant impact on the resulting optimal designs. Our new, highly efficient, fully automated optimization workflow will be used to optimize additional STS components in the future and can be adopted for design and optimization studies at other experimental neutron and accelerator facilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of neutron chopper and optics for CENTAUR, the SANS/WANS diffractometer at the spallation neutron source second target station

Herein this report presents the physics design and optimization of the neutron chopper and optics systems for the CENTAUR instrument, a multifunctional small-angle and wide-angle neutron scattering diffractometer for the Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station. This instrument will offer a wide range of capabilities, including small-angle neutron scattering with wide Q coverage (e.g., 0.001–20 Å –1 ), providing a tool to investigate structures from atomic to mesoscopic scales simultaneously. To efficiently transport desired neutrons from the compact high-brightness cold source, several innovative designs are utilized: a time-zero chopper with a straight guide system for short-wavelength neutrons, octagonal guides for higher flux, and a correlation chopper to reduce inelastic scattering. The optimization process considers factors such as useable time-integrated flux, instrument resolution, brilliance transfer, divergence, and acceptance diagram uniformity. The overall design prioritizes flexibility to accommodate diverse user requirements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Second gadolinium loading to Super-Kamiokande

The first loading of gadolinium (Gd) into Super-Kamiokande in 2020 was successful, and the neutron capture efficiency on Gd reached 50%. To further increase the Gd neutron capture efficiency to 75%, 26.1 tons of Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ∙ 8H 2 O was additionally loaded into Super-Kamiokande (SK) from May 31 to July 4, 2022. As the amount of loaded Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ∙ 8H 2 O was doubled compared to the first loading, the capacity of the powder dissolving system was doubled. We also developed new batches of gadolinium sulfate with even further reduced radioactive impurities. In addition, a more efficient screening method was devised and implemented to evaluate these new batches of Gd 2 (SO 4 ) 3 ∙ 8H 2 O. Following the second loading, the Gd concentration in SK was measured to be 333.5 ± 2.5 ppm via an Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS). From the mean neutron capture time constant of neutrons from an Am/Be calibration source, the Gd concentration was independently measured to be 332.7 ± 6.8(sys.) ± 1.1(stat.) ppm, consistent with the AAS result. Furthermore, during the loading the Gd concentration was monitored continually using the capture time constant of each spallation neutron produced by cosmic-ray muons, and the final neutron capture efficiency was shown to become 1.5 times higher than that of the first loaded phase, as expected.

Gadolinium↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupled beam-target-moderator optimization for the Second Target Station

To support the design of the Second Target Station, that aims to provide the world’s highest peak brightness of cold neutrons, studies that optimize the dimensions of the target and moderators are invaluable. In this work, we investigate the influence of the target dimensions and beam profile on the performance and optimal size of the moderators. We perform optimization runs with detailed MCNP6.2 simulations using high-fidelity unstructured mesh geometries generated from parametrized CAD models. We demonstrate that small changes in target height do not influence the moderator performance if the beam dimensions are chosen adequately. We quantify the effect of beam footprint and target width on the moderator performance and show that the optimal moderator dimensions are insensitive to limited changes in target and beam profile.

Dakota↗

DOE OSTI2026

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗