Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Risk detection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

Firmware Tampering Detection in Heavy-Duty Vehicles through J1939 CAN Analysis

Modern heavy-duty vehicles rely on complex networks of Electronic Control Units (ECUs) that communicate using the J1939 protocol. While this system makes it easier to update and configure vehicle components, it also opens the door to serious cybersecurity risks if not properly secured. This work investigates the potential for firmware tampering through the J1939 communication protocol, which enables ECU configuration and reprogramming over the Controller Area Network (CAN) bus. By monitoring CAN traffic during legitimate maintenance operations and reverse-engineering OEM diagnostic software, we identified common and proprietary J1939 message identifiers, authentication patterns, and vulnerabilities within Unified Diagnostic Services (UDS). These findings demonstrate that inadequate authentication mechanisms can allow malicious actors to alter ECU firmware or disable safety functions, posing severe operational and safety risks. Our analysis contributes to the development of vehicle intrusion detection systems capable of recognizing abnormal reprogramming activity and future firmware fingerprinting methods to verify software integrity across ECUs. This work highlights the importance of standardizing secure firmware authentication across manufacturers to strengthen cyber resilience in heavy-duty vehicle systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Setting the Bar for the Replacement of the Probability of Collision Metric

To date, satellite conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis has largely embraced the probability of collision (Pc) as the omnibus metric to evaluate collision likelihood, and its use in such assessments has mostly been straightforward: at the point at which a conjunction mitigation decision is required, the calculated Pc is compared to a threshold; and if the calculated Pc exceeds that threshold, then a mitigation action is warranted. With only minor variation, this approach is employed by major CA risk assessment centers (e.g., NASA, EUSST, CNES, JAXA) and is advanced as the preferred method in the published CA best practices handbooks. Despite this near unanimity of operational practice, there is a major strain of secondary literature critical of the Pc and willing to propose alternatives. Alfano (2005) pointed out the ability of the Pc to underrepresent the risk in certain situations and counselled a maximum Pc construct. Carpenter (2017, 2019) reiterated this criticism and proposed using instead a confidence interval on the miss distance. Balch et al. (2019) identified what they argued was a defect in the entire Bayesian Pc construct and believed that the use of a more conservative methodology based on covariance ellipsoid overlap was necessary. Delande (2022) introduced the framework of collision “plausibility” to the risk assessment process and sketched out how this might be used operationally. Elkantassi (2022) published a full development of the miss distance confidence interval approach and applied it to several worked examples. While these different approaches to collision risk assessment do differ in their details, they all converge on two central points: first, the Pc’s failure to give an adequate expression of the risk in dilution region situations is a fatal flaw; and second, a conjunction should be presumed risky and in need of mitigation until the evidence of the situation can establish otherwise. These criticisms, if correct, would counsel a number of modifications to current CA operational practice; as such, they force a re-examination of fundamental aspects of the CA problem, including the following: 1. Is the CA risk assessment a probability problem, a statistics problem, or something else? 2. If it is a statistics problem, does it lend itself naturally to a hypothesis test construction? 3. If it can be construed as a hypothesis test, what form should the null hypothesis take, to wit: what constraints exist on the choice of the null hypothesis, what selections are in best alignment with all of the attendant parameters of the problem, and what is implied philosophically by different choices? 4. What are the implications of using the different proposed risk assessment parameters for CA? This question should be answered both in determining how frequently the dilution region situation cited by the critics of the Pc actually appears in an operationally significant manner and the missed detection and false alarm rates of all of the proposed risk assessment metrics, compared both to the Pc and to each other. This paper explores and offers preliminary answers to the above questions, presenting a researched treatment of the philosophical nature of the CA problem and the null hypothesis choice that achieves the greatest consistency with all of the different aspects of operational CA conduct. It then profiles all of the different proposed risk assessment metrics enumerated in the earlier paragraph against an extremely large database of conjunction events at both the 550km and 700km altitudes. The combination of the philosophical exploration of the CA problem and the results of the profiling activity articulates what a risk assessment metric will need to demonstrate, in terms of both innate construction and performance, in order to be a true competitor to the Pc.

conjunction assessment↗

EHS Health Assessment & Health Action Plan Report (CY 2020)

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Employee Health Services (EHS) program believes that good health is essential to getting the most out of life, which is why we offer a variety of worksite wellness programs that put employees in control of their own health. These programs are based on current research and strategies that are proven to minimize risk and decrease the impact of illness through early detection and treatment. Services includes Health Assessments, the Virgin Pulse (VP) online wellness platform, and Health Action Plans (HAP) which include one-on-one education, organizational health initiatives, a video library, an events calendar, onsite fitness facilities, and group fitness classes. Participation in these programs help employees and their spouses earn funding for their Health Reimbursement Accounts (HRAs). The EHS Health Action Plan (HAP) initiative targets the key health risks identified through the 8-15-80 model by engaging employees to change their own healthcare story. EHS identified the most prevalent of the health risks amongst our population through Health Risk Assessment (HRA) and used that data to build Health Action Plans (HAPs). The 2020 Health Action Plans addressed improving upon inadequate sleep, lack of energy, stress, weight, physical inactivity, cardiometabolic issues (hypertension, high cholesterol, diabetes), low back pain, allergies, asthma, digestive health, tobacco use, and living well to maintaining low risk for those individuals who do not have a chronic condition to manage. These plans connect employees with our onsite registered dietitians, fitness professionals, health coaches, physical therapists, and physicians as appropriate. In addition to addressing the physical aspects of health, the plans also emphasized pre/post-assessments to encourage building behavioral and emotional skills that promote health and facilitate lifestyle changes over a minimum of three months. Just one risk reduction or behavior change can make an impact on the health of the participant’s Division as well as Sandia’s overall risk levels and ultimately its healthcare costs. Sandia employees achieved an Overall Wellness Score of 69 based on the WellSource Health Assessment (the same as last year). A score of 70-100 is considered “Doing Well”, and a score of 40-69 is in the “Caution” category. Overall in CY 2019, Sandia saw a 34% participation rate in Health Action Plan (HAP) programs (up from 33% in CY 2019) with an 89% completion rate (4% lower than CY 2019). Overall, 5,039 (347 more than CY 2019) individuals participated in 8,329 HAPs, which is 1,005 more than the last calendar year (7,324).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Mortality of older construction and craft workers employed at Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear sites: Follow‐up through 2021

Background To determine if construction and trades workers formerly employed at US Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons sites are at significant risk for occupational diseases, we studied the mortality experience of participants in the Building Trades National Medical Screening Program (BTMed). Methods The cohort included 26,922 participants enrolled between 1998 and 2021 and 8367 deaths. Standardized mortality ratios were calculated based on US death rates. Cox models compared construction workers (n = 22,747; 7487 deaths) to two nonconstruction subpopulations: administrative, scientific and security workers (n = 1894; 330 deaths), and all other nonconstruction workers (n = 2218; 550 deaths). Results Mortality was elevated for all causes, all cancers, cancers of the trachea, bronchus, lung, kidneys, and lymphatic and hematopoietic system, mesothelioma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asbestosis, transportation injuries, and other injuries, particularly accidental poisonings. There were 167 deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which was lower than expected using US death rates. Overall cause-specific mortality was significantly higher among construction workers than for internal comparison groups. Conclusions Construction workers employed at DOE sites have a significantly increased risk for occupational illnesses. Apart from COVID-19 deaths, this update: (1) found that mortality among construction workers is significantly elevated compared to the US population and significantly higher than in the internal comparison populations, and (2) confirmed excess risk for these workers for first employment after 1990. Cancer mortality risks are similar to the cancers identified for DOE compensation from radiation exposures. In conclusion, the high lung cancer risk supports the value of early lung cancer detection. Continued medical surveillance is important.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Machine learning prediction of incidence of Alzheimer’s disease using large-scale administrative health data

Nationwide population-based cohort provides a new opportunity to build an automated risk prediction model based on individuals’ history of health and healthcare beyond existing risk prediction models. We tested the possibility of machine learning models to predict future incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using large-scale administrative health data. From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database between 2002 and 2010, we obtained de-identified health data in elders above 65 years (N = 40,736) containing 4,894 unique clinical features including ICD-10 codes, medication codes, laboratory values, history of personal and family illness and socio-demographics. To define incident AD we considered two operational definitions: “definite AD” with diagnostic codes and dementia medication (n = 614) and “probable AD” with only diagnosis (n = 2026). We trained and validated random forest, support vector machine and logistic regression to predict incident AD in 1, 2, 3, and 4 subsequent years. For predicting future incidence of AD in balanced samples (bootstrapping), the machine learning models showed reasonable performance in 1-year prediction with AUC of 0.775 and 0.759, based on “definite AD” and “probable AD” outcomes, respectively; in 2-year, 0.730 and 0.693; in 3-year, 0.677 and 0.644; in 4-year, 0.725 and 0.683. The results were similar when the entire (unbalanced) samples were used. Important clinical features selected in logistic regression included hemoglobin level, age and urine protein level. This study may shed a light on the utility of the data-driven machine learning model based on large-scale administrative health data in AD risk prediction, which may enable better selection of individuals at risk for AD in clinical trials or early detection in clinical settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PRISTINE: An Emulation Platform for PCB-Level Hardware Trojans

Printed circuit Boards (PCBs) are becoming increasingly vulnerable to malicious design alteration, also known as Trojan attacks, due to a distributed business model that often involves various untrusted parties. Such attacks can be mounted at various stages in the PCB life cycle. The relative ease of alteration of PCB hardware even after fabrication (due to physical access to surface-mounted critical components and traces) makes them attractive for an adversary to manipulate their functional/physical behavior for malicious intent. There is a growing need to explore viable Trojan attacks in a PCB, analyze their functional and physical characteristics (e.g., impact on power or delay), and study the effectiveness of countermeasures against these attacks. While simulation-based approaches for PCB Trojan insertion are effective at creating a large population of possible Trojans, they fail to provide functional feasibility analysis with a realistic workload for a trigger circuit. Also, they cannot estimate a Trojan’s side-channel footprint due to the unavailability of physical models of diverse PCB components. To address these deficiencies, in this paper, we present PRISTINE, a PCB-level emulation system for any integrity or physical tampering issues, specifically, hardware Trojan insertion. The need for building such an emulation platform to resolve PCB trust issues in the supply chain is also surveyed and discussed. Both custom Hardware Hacking (HaHa) boards and multiple commercial PCBs are then used to test the ability of the proposed system to emulate various hardware Trojans specially designed to exploit board-specific hardware characteristics. Experimental results on emulated board-level Trojans show that a wide range of Trojans can be successfully activated, thus enabling the expected payload effects on both types of boards to be studied and quantified. The resulting data are further analyzed to create PCB-level Trojan benchmarks. In particular, a comparative evaluation of the experimental results is used to propose a risk level metric that quantifies the probability of detection and degree of payload impact of each Trojan on a given commercial PCB.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Coverage modeling for dependability analysis of fault-tolerant systems

Several different models for predicting coverage in a fault-tolerant system, including models for permanent, intermittent, and transient errors, are discussed. Markov, semi-Markov, nonhomogeneous Markov, and extended stochastic Petri net models for computing coverage are developed. Two types of events that interfere with recovery are examined; and methods for modeling such events, whether they are deterministic or random, are given. The sensitivity of system reliability/availability to the coverage parameter and the sensitivity of the coverage parameter to various error-handling strategies are investigated. It is found that a policy of attempting transient recovery upon detection of an error can actually increase the unreliability of the system. This result is true if the error detectability is not nearly perfect, so that the risk of producing an undetectable error is greater than the benefit gained by not discarding the component.

Dugan, Joanne Bechta↗

Keeping a Beat on the Heart

Feel the relief of a patient suffering from heart arrhythmia, who is able to return home while having her heart monitored by health professionals 24 hours a day, without the fear that she will miss an important indicator and suffer a fatal heart attack - using technology originally developed to conduct experiments on the Space Shuttle. Approximately 400,000 Americans die every year from sudden heart attacks . Medical research revealed that patterns of electrical activity in the heart can act as predictors of these lethal cardiac events known as arrhythmias. Fortunately, certain arrhythmias such as ventricular fibrillation (loss of regular heartbeat and subsequent loss of function) and ventricular tachycardia (rapid heartbeats), can be detected and appropriately treated. Today, patients at moderate risk of arrhythmias can benefit from technology that would permit long- term continuous monitoring of electrical cardiac rhythms outside the hospital environment in the comfort of their own homes. Medical telemetry systems, also known as telemedicine, are evolving rapidly as wireless communication technology advances, evidenced by the commercial products and research prototypes for remote health monitoring that have appeared in recent years. Wireless systems allow patients to move freely in their home and work environment while being monitored remotely by health care professionals.

Liszka, Kathy J.↗

Screening EEG in Aircrew Selection: Clinical Aerospace Neurology Perspective

As clinical aerospace neurologists we do not favor using screening EEG in pilot selection on unselected and otherwise asymptomatic individuals. The role of EEG in aviation screening should be as an adjunct to diagnosis, and the decision to disqualify a pilot should never be based solely on the EEG. Although a policy of using a screening EEG in an unselected population might detect an individual with a potentially increased relative risk, it would needlessly exclude many applicants who would probably never have a seizure. A diagnostic test performed on an asymptomatic individual without clinical indications, in a population with a low prevalence of disease (seizure) may be of limited or possibly detrimental value. We feel that rather than do EEGs on all candidates, a better approach would be to perform an EEG for a specific indication, such as family history of seizure, single convulsion (seizure) , history of unexplained loss of consciousness or head injury. Routine screening EEGs in unselected aviation applications are not done without clinical indication in the U.S. Air Force, Navy, or NASA. The USAF discontinued routine screening EEGs for selection in 1978, the U.S. Navy discontinued it in 1981 , and NASA discontinued it in 1995. EEG as an aeromedical screening tool in the US Navy dates back to 1939. The US Navy routinely used EEGs to screen all aeromedical personnel from 1961 to 1981. The incidence of epileptiform activity on EEG in asymptomatic flight candidates ranges from 0.11 to 2.5%. In 3 studies of asymptomatic flight candidates with epileptiform activity on EEG followed for 2 to 15 years, 1 of 31 (3.2%), 1 of 30 (3.3%), and 0 of 14 (0%) developed a seizure, for a cumulative risk of an individual with an epileptiform EEG developing a seizure of 2.67% (2 in 75). Of 28,658 student naval aviation personnel screened 31 had spikes and/or slow waves on EEG, and only 1 later developed a seizure. Of the 28,627 who had a normal EEG, 4 later developed seizures, or .0139% (4/28627). After review of the value of the EEG as a screening tool, the US Navy now uses EEG only for certain clinical indications (head injury, unexplained loss of consciousness, family history of epilepsy, and abnormal neurological exam). Currently the US Navy does not use EEG for screening for any flight applicant without a neurologic indication. In the US Navy, an electroencephalographic pattern is determined to be epileptiform by a neurologist.

Clark, Jonathan B.↗

GLM Proxy Data Generation: Methods for Stroke/Pulse Level Inter-Comparison of Ground-Based Lightning Reference Networks

In order to produce useful proxy data for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in regions not covered by VLF lightning mapping systems, we intend to employ data produced by ground-based (regional or global) VLF/LF lightning detection networks. Before using these data in GLM Risk Reduction tasks, it is necessary to have a quantitative understanding of the performance of these networks, in terms of CG flash/stroke DE, cloud flash/pulse DE, location accuracy, and CLD/CG classification error. This information is being obtained through inter-comparison with LMAs and well-quantified VLF/LF lightning networks. One of our approaches is to compare "bulk" counting statistics on the spatial scale of convective cells, in order to both quantify relative performance and observe variations in cell-based temporal trends provided by each network. In addition, we are using microsecond-level stroke/pulse time correlation to facilitate detailed inter-comparisons at a more-fundamental level. The current development status of our ground-based inter-comparison and evaluation tools will be presented, and performance metrics will be discussed through a comparison of Vaisala s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) with the NLDN at locations within and outside the U.S.

Cummins, Kenneth L.↗

The Viability of See and Avoid for Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an emerging aviation concept that could supplement today’s ground and air transportation systems. For UAM, it is generally assumed that the private sector will manage separation and not rely on the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control system. To date, discussions of initial operations focus on using the visual abilities of the pilot to “see and avoid” (SAA) other aircraft. Decades of research on SAA has demonstrated that it is inadequate for reliable detection of aircraft that might pose a collision risk. The literature on multi-object tracking is also reviewed for findings on how well humans can visually track objects. The research shows that humans have limited resources for tracking and that this may be affected by object characteristics and cognitive skills. The conclusion is that SAA is a risky method for avoiding midair collisions. It is recommended that flight deck displays and automated collision avoidance systems be implemented for all UAM aircraft at the outset of their introduction.

urban air mobility↗

The Viability of See-and-Avoid for Midair Collision Avoidance for UAM

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an emerging aviation concept that could supplement today’s ground and air transportation systems. For UAM, it is generally assumed that the private sector will manage separation and not rely on the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control system. To date, discussions of initial operations focus on using the visual abilities of the pilot to “see and avoid” (SAA) other aircraft. Decades of research on SAA has demonstrated that it is inadequate for reliable detection of aircraft that might pose a collision risk. The literature on multi-object tracking is also reviewed for findings on how well humans can visually track objects. The research shows that humans have limited resources for tracking and that this may be affected by object characteristics and cognitive skills. The conclusion is that SAA is a risky method for avoiding midair collisions. It is recommended that flight deck displays and automated collision avoidance systems be implemented for all UAM aircraft at the outset of their introduction.

urban air mobility↗

The Viability of See-and-Avoid for Midair Collision Avoidance for Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an emerging aviation concept that could supplement today’s ground and air transportation systems. For UAM, it is generally assumed that the private sector will manage separation and not rely on the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control system. To date, discussions of initial operations focus on using the visual abilities of the pilot to “see and avoid” (SAA) other aircraft. Decades of research on SAA has demonstrated that it is inadequate for reliable detection of aircraft that might pose a collision risk. The literature on multi-object tracking is also reviewed for findings on how well humans can visually track objects. The research shows that humans have limited resources for tracking and that this may be affected by object characteristics and cognitive skills. The conclusion is that SAA is a risky method for avoiding midair collisions. It is recommended that flight deck displays and automated collision avoidance systems be implemented for all UAM aircraft at the outset of their introduction.

urban air mobility↗

The Viability of See-and-Avoid for Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an emerging aviation concept that could supplement today’s ground and air transportation systems. For UAM, it is generally assumed that the private sector will manage separation and not rely on the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control system. To date, discussions of initial operations focus on using the visual abilities of the pilot to “see and avoid” (SAA) other aircraft. Decades of research on SAA has demonstrated that it is inadequate for reliable detection of aircraft that might pose a collision risk. The literature on multi-object tracking is also reviewed for findings on how well humans can visually track objects. The research shows that humans have limited resources for tracking and that this may be affected by object characteristics and cognitive skills. The conclusion is that SAA is a risky method for avoiding midair collisions. It is recommended that flight deck displays and automated collision avoidance systems be implemented for all UAM aircraft at the outset of their introduction.

urban air mobility↗

Exploring the Potential of Hydrogen as a Lift Gas for Nasa’s Scientific Balloon Program

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Balloon Program has a rich history of conducting scientific research in the stratosphere, offering a unique platform for experiments in the near-space environment. One critical component of these high-altitude balloons is the choice of lift gas, which is pivotal to achieving the desired altitude and, thus, mission objectives. Traditionally, helium has been the preferred lift gas due to its inert properties and safety considerations. However, the increasing demand and limited global helium reserves have prompted NASA to explore alternative lift gases, with hydrogen emerging as the most logical choice. Hydrogen boasts several advantages, including its abundant availability, cost-effectiveness, and enhanced lift capability compared to helium. Moreover, it can support a wide range of scientific payloads, enabling extended mission durations and increased payload capacities, ultimately strengthening the program’s scientific potential. However, adopting hydrogen as a lift gas is not without challenges. Safety concerns, especially during the launch and recovery phases, are paramount. NASA and the other major players in the scientific ballooning community have been developing stringent safety protocols and engineering solutions to mitigate these risks. This development includes specialized support systems, leak detection mechanisms, and enhanced launch and recovery procedures. Additionally, environmental considerations must be carefully evaluated. Hydrogen release has the potential to increase concentrations of various greenhouse gases, and its usage must be balanced against the benefits it offers to scientific research and exploration. This paper delves into the ongoing research and development efforts to ensure balloon-based research’s long-term sustainability and its ability to continue pushing the boundaries of scientific discovery. This research demonstrates NASA’s commitment to innovation, safety, and environmental responsibility while maintaining its mission to advance our understanding of the Earth and the cosmos.

balloon↗

Risk estimation based on chromosomal aberrations induced by radiation

The presence of a causal association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes and the risk of cancer has been substantiated recently by epidemiological studies. Cytogenetic analyses of crew members of the Mir Space Station have shown that a significant increase in the frequency of chromosomal aberrations can be detected after flight, and that such an increase is likely to be attributed to the radiation exposure. The risk of cancer can be estimated directly from the yields of chromosomal aberrations, taking into account some aspects of individual susceptibility and other factors unrelated to radiation. However, the use of an appropriate technique for the collection and analysis of chromosomes and the choice of the structural aberrations to be measured are crucial in providing sound results. Based on the fraction of aberrant lymphocytes detected before and after flight, the relative risk after a long-term Mir mission is estimated to be about 1.2-1.3. The new technique of mFISH can provide useful insights into the quantification of risk on an individual basis.

STS Shuttle Project↗