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hls4ml: A Flexible, Open-Source Platform for Deep Learning Acceleration on Reconfigurable Hardware

We present hls4ml, a free and open-source platform that translates machine learning (ML) models from modern deep learning frameworks into high-level synthesis (HLS) code that can be integrated into full designs for field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) or application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). With its flexible and modular design, hls4ml supports a large number of deep learning frameworks and can target HLS compilers from several vendors, including Vitis HLS, Intel oneAPI and Catapult HLS. Together with a wider eco-system for software-hardware co-design, hls4ml has enabled the acceleration of ML inference in a wide range of commercial and scientific applications where low latency, resource usage, and power consumption are critical. In this paper, we describe the structure and functionality of the hls4ml platform. The overarching design considerations for the generated HLS code are discussed, together with selected performance results.

Schulte, Jan-Frederik [Purdue U.] (ORCID:000000034↗

Flexoelectricity and New Phenomena

It is easy to miss the scientific implications of our recent work on Triboelectricity. Everyone knows that rubbing and contact can produce static electricity; less appreciated is that the thermodynamic driver has been an open question since static electricity was first observed by Thales of Miletus around 585 BC. People think they understand it, for instance one common explanation that can still be found in the current literature is that differences in the work function drives charge transfer, often called the Volta-Helmholtz hypothesis. As summarized in 1967 by Harper, this fails to explain many experimental observations, for instance that charging can occur when two pieces of the same material are rubbed against each other. We are the first to place triboelectricity on a solid foundation rooted in quantum mechanics – the flexoelectric effect. We were able to explain a significant number of previously unexplained phenomena: 1) Bipolar tribocurrents associated with stick-slip, due to the change in sign of the strain gradients. 2) A one-third power scaling of tribocurrents with indentation force. 3) Tribocharging when two identical materials are used, these being due to local variations in the asperities so there are usually local potential differences. 4) Inhomogeneous charging of insulators, related to the statistical nature of asperities. 5) An experimentally observed reversal in the sign of charge transfer for negative and positive curvature, which is related to a change in the sign of the strain gradient. Exploiting our DOE prior funded work on flexoelectricity, we obtained semi-quantitative matching to existing experimental measurements of the surface charge in triboelectric experiments. The work has been well received in the literature. The work has been the focus of a number of popular science press articles, and also formed the basis for a Podcast for children 6-10 “The Rise and Fall of Static Man” posted in December 2019 by NPR as part of their “Wow in the World” series. I was also briefly interviewed by the Chicago PBS station in January 2020. This work are significant for a wide range of energy applications; to quote from an independent source: "Triboelectric power has plenty of potential, says Wenzhuo Wu, an assistant professor of engineering at Purdue. If the basics of static electricity are better understood, we could maximize the efficiency of wind or wave power generators, Wu says. The body's own movement could be used to power internal medical devices. Imagine being able to create a roof shaped to harness the power of a raindrop — the friction of the rain passing over the surface — to generate triboelectricity, powering the building below it." This is the start of new science, some of which we already partially understand such as the role of band bending in charge transfer. We need to understand charge transfer combining elasticity, quantum mechanics, band bending and defect states. These directly involve several of the DOE Grand Challenges: "How do we control material processes at the level of electrons? How do remarkable properties of matter emerge from complex correlations of the atomic or electronic constituents and how can we control these properties? How do we characterize and control matter away—especially very far away— from equilibrium?" I will argue that this work truly falls into the class of disruptive science; it is not just a simple extension, linear science. Not everyone will accept the approach. Since we explain far more about triboelectricity than anyone before, the preponderance of evidence supports the model. The feedback I have received is that many agree with the work, to quote: "The model makes sense, says Michael McAlpine, a professor of engineering at the University of Minnesota. "It's such a simple explanation, I was surprised I didn't put my finger on that," McAlpine says." The proposal received strong reviews. It was also publicized on the Department of Energy Web Site.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

HamLib: A library of Hamiltonians for benchmarking quantum algorithms and hardware

In order to characterize and benchmark computational hardware, software, and algorithms, it is essential to have many problem instances on-hand. This is no less true for quantum computation, where a large collection of real-world problem instances would allow for benchmarking studies that in turn help to improve both algorithms and hardware designs. To this end, here we present a large dataset of qubit-based quantum Hamiltonians. The dataset, called HamLib (for Hamiltonian Library), is freely available online and contains problem sizes ranging from 2 to 1000 qubits. HamLib includes problem instances of the Heisenberg model, Fermi-Hubbard model, Bose-Hubbard model, molecular electronic structure, molecular vibrational structure, MaxCut, Max- k -SAT, Max- k -Cut, QMaxCut, and the traveling salesperson problem. The goals of this effort are (a) to save researchers time by eliminating the need to prepare problem instances and map them to qubit representations, (b) to allow for more thorough tests of new algorithms and hardware, and (c) to allow for reproducibility and standardization across research studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Heterogeneous and Framework-Bound Copper Species Contribute to Catalytic Partial Methane Oxidation in Cu–Chabazite Zeolites

The relationship between continuous partial methane oxidation (PMO) rates and Cu site speciation in Cu-CHA zeolite catalysts is explored through differential rate measurements across a series of samples of varying compositions combined with density functional theory, first-principles thermodynamics, and statistical models that characterize Cu speciation. Under continuous PMO conditions (573 K, 0.07 kPa O 2 , 3 kPa H 2 O), Cu ions are shown to anchor to the CHA framework in both monomeric (Z 2 Cu and Z 2 CuH 2 O) and dimeric (O- and OH-bridged Cu) forms that are sensitive to the identity of the local framework anchoring site. Consequently, across the studied compositional range, Cu-CHA catalysts are predicted to contain a mixture of monomeric and dimeric Cu sites. Cu-normalized CH 3 OH formation rates extrapolated to zero conversion reflect contributions from multiple site types. Predicted CH 3 OH formation rates indicate that the Cu site reactivity toward CH 4 is influenced by zeolite composition and is likely limited by the reduction half-cycle.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Coefficient-to-Basis Network: a fine-tunable operator learning framework for inverse problems with adaptive discretizations and theoretical guarantees

We propose a Coefficient-to-Basis Network (C2BNet), a novel framework for solving inverse problems within the operator learning paradigm. C2BNet efficiently adapts to different discretizations through fine-tuning, using a pre-trained model to significantly reduce computational cost while maintaining high accuracy. Unlike traditional approaches that require retraining from scratch for new discretizations, our method enables seamless adaptation without sacrificing predictive performance. Furthermore, we establish theoretical approximation and generalization error bounds for C2BNet by exploiting low-dimensional structures in the underlying datasets. Our analysis demonstrates that C2BNet adapts to low-dimensional structures without relying on explicit encoding mechanisms, highlighting its robustness and efficiency. To validate our theoretical findings, we conducted extensive numerical experiments that showcase the superior performance of C2BNet on several inverse problems. The results confirm that C2BNet effectively balances computational efficiency and accuracy, making it a promising tool to solve inverse problems in scientific computing and engineering applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Powers of magnetic graph matrix: Fourier spectrum, walk compression, and applications

Magnetic graphs, originally developed to model quantum systems under magnetic fields, have recently emerged as a powerful framework for analyzing complex directed networks. Existing research has primarily used the spectral properties of the magnetic graph matrix to study global and stationary network features. However, their capacity to model local, nonequilibrium behaviors, often described by matrix powers, remains largely unexplored. We present a combinatorial interpretation of the magnetic graph matrix powers through directed walk profiles—counts of graph walks indexed by the number of edge reversals. Crucially, we establish that walk profiles correspond to a Fourier transform of magnetic matrix powers. The connection allows exact reconstruction of walk profiles from magnetic matrix powers at multiple discrete potentials, and more importantly, an even smaller number of potentials often suffices for accurate approximate reconstruction in real networks. This shows the empirical compressibility of the information captured by the magnetic matrix. This fresh perspective suggests further applications; for example, we illustrate how powers of the magnetic matrix can identify frustrated directed cycles (e.g., feedforward loops) and can be effectively employed for link prediction by encoding local structural details in directed graphs.

complex networks↗

Outflow Boundary Conditions for Turbine-Integrated Rotating Detonation Combustors

This study examines outflow boundary conditions (BCs) in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of a transition duct with and without guide vanes that converts supersonic flow exiting a rotating detonation combustor (RDC) to subsonic flow to drive a turbine. Since the flow exiting the transition duct has swirling shock waves with significant spatial and temporal variations in pressure, temperature, and Mach number, imposing proper BCs poses a challenge. To ensure all swirling shock waves exit the transition duct without creating non-physical reflected waves at its outlet, this study examined three outflow BCs: (1) the average pressure imposed at the duct’s outlet, (2) a nonreflecting BC (NRBC) with a specified average pressure imposed at the duct’s outlet, (3) the average pressure imposed at the outlet of an extension duct made up of a buffer layer and a sponge layer. This study is based on the three-dimensional, unsteady density-weighted-ensemble-averaged continuity, Navier–Stokes, and energy equations for a thermally perfect gas closed by the realizable k–ε model and “enhanced” wall functions. The results obtained show that imposing an average pressure at the transition duct’s outlet produces spurious waves that degrade the physical meaningfulness of the solution. When the NRBC was applied, swirling shock waves exited the duct’s outlet without creating spurious waves. However, its usage requires the gas to be thermally, as well as calorically, perfect, which this study shows could be a concern. By imposing the average pressure at the outlet of an extension duct, the gas does not need to be calorically perfect. The results obtained show the effects of the sponge layer’s length and coarsening ratio on damping nonuniformities in non-physical reflected waves to ensure the flow exiting the transition duct’s outlet can do so as if there are no boundaries present and has the desired average pressure—even though the BC is applied at the extension duct’s outlet.

gas turbines↗

Measurement of fifth- and sixth-order fluctuations of (net-)proton number in Au + Au collisions from phase II of the beam energy scan program at RHIC

We report high-statistics measurements of fifth- and sixth-order factorial cumulants and cumulant ratios of (net-)proton multiplicity distributions in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 7.7–27GeV, using data from the STAR experiment collected during the Beam Energy Scan Phase II at RHIC. Protons and antiprotons are identified at midrapidity (|𝑦| < 0.5) with transverse momentum 0.4 < 𝑝 𝑇 < 2.0GeV/𝑐. The proton factorial cumulants 𝜅 4 , 𝜅 5 , and 𝜅 6 increase with order but exhibit no sign alternation within current uncertainties, offering no evidence for a two-component structure in the proton multiplicity distribution, as might be expected near a first-order phase transition. The cumulant ratios 𝐶 5 /𝐶 1 and 𝐶 6 /𝐶 2 fluctuate around zero in collisions at 0–40% centrality. The results are consistent with both the negative predictions from lattice QCD and the positive trends obtained from the ultrarelativistic quantum molecular dynamics (UrQMD) model. At $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ ≳ 27GeV, the 𝐶 4 /𝐶 2 and 𝐶 5 /𝐶 1 results are compatible with predictions from lattice QCD, functional renormalization group (FRG), and hadron resonance gas (HRG) models, while UrQMD describes the data better at lower energies. Here, these measurements place constraints on baryon number fluctuations and offer valuable insights into the QCD phase structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Molecular Structures of Liquid and Glassy Nifedipine and Felodipine and Their Incorporation into PVP

Background: Amorphous drug formulations are commonly used to improve the solubility and bioavailability of poorly soluble molecular pharmaceuticals, yet less is known about their molecular conformations and local bonding interactions than their crystalline phases. Methods: High-energy X-ray diffraction structure factor measurements have been made on liquid and glassy nifedipine (NIF), felodipine (FEL), NIF 1:3 polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP), and FEL 1:3 PVP wt.% mixtures. The corresponding X-ray pair distribution functions have been interpreted using empirical potential structure refinement using different models and density functional theory conformer calculations. Results: In both NIF and FEL, the NH···O inter-molecular hydrogen bonds between the pyridyl nitrogen and ester carbonyls are found to be considerably weaker than those observed in the crystalline polymorphs. For nifedipine, it is proposed that either inter-molecular NH…ON nitro bonds are present and/or a fraction (<20%) of conformational changes, with the aryl ring flipped, occur in the liquid state. For felodipine, the models indicate significant disorder associated with the methyl and ethyl side chains in the liquid state, with the main peak intensity at 3.0 Å arising from intra-molecular Cl-Cl atom pairs. When nifedipine molecules are incorporated into PVP, our models show they possess stronger NH···O bonds to the PVP polymer than felodipine molecules, which have stronger affinity for bonding to the polymer than to other felodipine molecules. Conclusions: The amorphous forms of both NIF and FEL show much weaker hydrogen bonding than found in their crystalline phases. Liquid NIF also exhibits configurations which are not observed in the crystal phases.

Amorphous Solid Dispersion↗

A Twin Circuit Theory-Based Framework for Oscillation Event Analysis in Inverter-Dominated Power Systems With Case Study for Kaua‘i System

Here, this paper proposes a real-world oscillation event analysis framework for power systems that include inverter-based resources together with synchronous generators. Specifically, the proposed framework combines both measurement-and model-based techniques to readily identify potential oscillation sources, replay the oscillation event with numerical simulation, unveil the underlying oscillation mechanism, and suggest mitigation methods for a wide range of oscillation events. To strengthen the theoretical foundation of our analysis framework, this paper proposes a twin circuit theory that provides theoretical support for one key utilized but not well-proven measurement-based oscillation source identification method-Dissipating Energy Flow. Our twin circuit theory also shows that adopting well-tuned grid-forming inverters can be a potential mitigation method for oscillation events. Finally, the effectiveness of our proposed oscillation event analysis framework is demonstrated by addressing a real-world 18-20 Hz oscillation event in Kaua‘i's power system on November 21, 2021.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Beam Non-Uniformity Characterization at the SpinQuest and DarkQuest Experiments

The SpinQuest experiment, including upgrades to SpinQuest designed to increase sensitivity to dark sector searches (commonly known as DarkQuest), utilizes the high-intensity 120 GeV proton beam delivered by the Fermilab Accelerator Complex to probe the inner structure of nucleons and search for new physics beyond the Standard Model. The SpinQuest beam is extracted from the Main Injector synchrotron at Fermilab in what is known as a slow spill . The slow spill involves a complex non-linear half-integer extraction method, which results in non-uniform beam behavior. SpinQuest observes spikes of very high intensity beam which can saturate detectors and reduce trigger efficiency, significantly impacting the experiment's sensitivity. In this project we address this challenge by developing an analysis framework to characterize the beam delivered to SpinQuest. By discovering trends within each spill and by comparing thousands of spills, we can better inform the Accelerator Division and improve the slow spill extraction. We have also begun a collaboration with the Accelerator Division in order to simulate the slow spill and improve the magnet ramp process controls which will improve the uniformity of the beam. These improvements will directly enhance the physics reach of SpinQuest/DarkQuest, increasing their sensitivity to key measurements such as the Sivers function and searches for new physics.

Dolen, James William [Purdue U., Calumet] (ORCID:0↗

Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

Studies warning of the potential negative effects of climate mitigation on food security through the competing use of land for bioenergy and afforestation have overlooked the impact of reduced ozone and its potential enhancement of crop yields. Here we use six global agro-economic models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy and ozone reduction on agriculture. We find that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global reduction. Our findings indicate that the negative effects of climate mitigation on global hunger could be partially offset by the ozone reduction impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unveiling in-gap states and Majorana zero modes in superconductor-topological insulator bilayer model

Interfaces between topological insulators and superconductors (SCs) are promising platforms for realizing Majorana zero modes (MZMs) via the superconducting proximity effect. We introduce a bilayer model consisting of the surface states of a three-dimensional topological insulator (3DTI) coupled to an 𝑠-wave superconductor and systematically study the role of interlayer tunneling strength (𝑡⊥) motivated by the recent growth of the Fe⁡(Te,Se)/Bi 2 ⁢Te 3 heterostructure. We find that increasing 𝑡⊥ shifts the proximity-induced (PrI) gap minimum away from the Γ point, giving rise to momentum-selective interference patterns that manifest as spatial oscillations in the in-gap states. We introduce an antidot with a magnetic vortex in the model and investigate the resulting in-gap states, including MZMs and Caroli–de Gennes–Matricon (CdGM) modes. With increasing hybridization strength, the energy separation between MZMs and CdGM states increases, enhancing the isolation of MZMs. Importantly, in the strong hybridization limit, the leading CdGM separation remains large in spite of the decrease in the PrI gap. Spin- and spatially resolved wavefunction analysis reveals angular momentum asymmetries absent in conventional 𝑠-wave systems. A direct comparison with a standalone 𝑠-wave superconductor confirms the emergence of distinct 𝑝-wave-like features in the bilayer geometry. Our results provide experimentally relevant predictions for tuning the stability of MZMs and their differentiation from the CdGM modes in SC-3DTI heterostructures and offer a theoretical framework for probing unconventional superconductivity in engineered topological systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Energy Impact of Radiative Cooling Paints in Warehouses Under Various United States Climates

Although radiative cooling research is widely found in the literature, no comprehensive study has yet been conducted on the impact of novel radiant cooling (>0.91 reflectance) on the energy efficiency of warehouses. Here, in this work, we develop three building models based on a Department of Energy prototype warehouse model using trnsys, representing a typical warehouse with a black roof, a typical warehouse with a white roof, and a warehouse with novel radiative cooling (RC) paint on its roof. These models are run for 15 different cities, each representative of a different ASHRAE climate zone, to better understand the impact of RC in many different climates. It was found that an RC-coated roof in a warehouse could reduce the building's annual heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads by up to 14.11 kWh/m 2 of the roof area compared to a black roof, resulting in a maximum reduction in energy costs of 0.55 $\$$/m 2 or $\$$2646/year for a large 4835 m 2 warehouse. Similarly, replacing the typical white roof coating with an RC coating could reduce the warehouse's energy consumption by up to 8.17 kWh/ m 2 of roof area, thus reducing energy costs by as much as 0.29 $\$$/m 2 or $\$$1386/year for a 4835 m 2 warehouse. In addition, applying RC paint to an unconditioned warehouse could reduce the building's ASHRAE Standard 55 indoor temperature exceedance by up to 1330 h/year compared to a black roof and up to 532 h/year compared to a white roof.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Explosive Soot Challenge (Final Report)

This project assembled a broad ensemble of modeling and experimentation tools to study the morphological and optical properties of detonation soots in explosive fireballs. A gram-scale hemispherical high explosive was studied in a low-pressure controlled environment using in-situ experimentation with diffusely illuminated visible absorption spectroscopy, particle sizing through light scattering techniques, and post-test collections with subsequent morphological analysis. Hydrocode modeling was performed to replicate the detonation flow observations, and subsequent aerosol kinetics models provided particle size distributions and extinction coefficients from the hydrocode results. Experimentally observed soot morphologies agreed with expectation from the literature - a bimodal distribution was found, brought upon by the particles growing to a size where their inertia and fluid wakes are non-negligible. The aerosol kinetics model did not replicate the observed bimodal size distribution for lack of a coagulation kernel to represent the behavior. To recover particulate optical properties, a spectrally resolved absorption spectroscopy method termed Spectral diffuse back-illuminated extinction imaging (SBI-EI) was developed and implemented on two explosive types. Inverting the absorption spectra using a Kramers-Kronig consistent method yielded the complex index of refraction for the soots produced by the explosives. This method resulted in an unrealistic index of refraction for one of the two explosives, and this is suspected to be due to the model neglecting scattering brought upon by the large particle sizes observed. In addition to the core work, three additional studies were performed in parallel. These investigated the impact of scattering on diffuse absorption spectroscopy, studied how soots oxidate and sublimate in a well-controlled shock tube, and laid the theoretical groundwork for a new collision kernel to replicate the bimodal size distribution from the observations. Summaries of these efforts are included at the end of this report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Multi-Scale Modeling of the Evolution of Structure and Properties in Materials for Nuclear Energy Applications [Slides]

Nuclear energy is an important component of an overall strategy to address climate change. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is the U.S. Department of Energy’s primary facility for research and development in nuclear science and technology for energy generation, supporting the improvement and life extension of the existing reactor fleet and the development and licensing of new reactor designs. Computational modeling is an important component of these activities, particularly in the area of materials for nuclear applications, where experimental data can be very challenging and expensive to acquire, and where data is especially scarce for new reactor designs. INL has used multi-scale modeling – linking atomistic, mesoscale, and engineering scales – to improve the ability to predict the performance of materials for nuclear energy applications. In this talk, I will give an overview of the approach and tools used, and several examples of application, including performance of nuclear fuels, understanding radiation-driven formation of nanoscale void and gas bubble superlattices, and powder densification through electric field assisted sintering.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Equilibrium Fe isotope fractionation between olivine, pyroxene, spinel and MORB glass: Implications for mantle partial melting to generate MORBs

Primitive mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORBs) exhibit Fe isotopic compositions heavier than the upper mantle by +0.074 ± 0.028 ‰ for δ 56 Fe. The processes responsible for this isotopic difference remain unclear. Modeling of Fe isotope fractionation during mantle partial melting requires reliable equilibrium Fe isotope fractionation factors between minerals and melts, for which consistent data are still lacking. Here, in this study, we used Nuclear Resonant Inelastic X-ray Scattering (NRIXS) technique to measure Fe force constants for a MORB glass (ALV 519-4-1) and natural mantle minerals (olivine, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and spinel) to determine the equilibrium Fe isotope fractionation factors between them. The force constants determined in this study, in increasing order, are 167 ± 26 N/m for spinel, 175 ± 17 N/m for olivine, 176 ± 20 N/m for MORB glass, 205 ± 26 N/m for clinopyroxene, and 219 ± 36 N/m for orthopyroxene. We evaluated the previously proposed mechanisms for the heavy Fe isotopic composition of MORBs, including (i) mantle partial melting, (ii) mantle lithological heterogeneity, with pyroxenite in the source, (iii) mantle metasomatism by low-degree melts, and (iv) fractional crystallization of olivine from melts. For (i), we used the pMELTS program to simulate adiabatic decompression melting of mantle peridotites, and calculated Fe isotope fractionation based on Fe 3+ –Fe 2+ equilibrium-controlled fractionation, where Fe 3+ forms stronger bonds and is more incompatible than Fe 2+ . At 10 wt% peridotite melting, corresponding to MORB generation, only +0.03 ‰ Fe isotope fractionation between the melt and the original bulk composition (Δ 56 Fe = δ 56 Fe melt - δ 56 Fe 0 ) was produced, insufficient to account for the observed MORB-upper mantle difference. For (ii), melting of pyroxenites yields smaller Fe isotope fractionation than melting of peridotites, making it unlikely the cause for the MORB-upper mantle isotopic difference. For (iii), both the Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratio and the δ 56 Fe of melts increase with the degree of partial melting, indicating that low-degree melts are not isotopically heavy enough to significantly alter the isotopic composition of lithospheric mantle through metasomatism. For (iv), equilibrium isotope fractionation between olivine and melt is near zero. These results suggest that equilibrium Fe isotope fractionation alone cannot explain the MORB isotopic signature, highlighting the potential role of kinetic isotope fractionation. Using a diffusion model, we calculated kinetic Fe and Mg isotope fractionations associated with (iv) olivine crystallization from a melt, and found that the predicted Fe and Mg isotope fractionations were inconsistent with observations in MORBs. Qualitatively, two processes could have induced kinetic Fe isotope fractionation during MORB generation: (a) Fe-Mg interdiffusion between melt and solid during melt migration and (b) reactive melt-rock interactions during melt focusing. However, a quantitative understanding of their role in modifying the melt isotopic composition remains limited and requires further investigation.

Fe isotopes↗

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗