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At least 217 records · Page 12

The European wood pellets for heating market - Price developments, trade and market efficiency

Competitive international markets imply adjustments towards competitive spatial equilibrium in which excess from one market is transferred to another and prices are equilibrated except for remaining differences that can be assigned to transfer costs. The European market for wood pellets used in small-scale heating systems has been expanding significantly over the past decade. Small scale pellet heating is arguably a mature technology, but whether the market is mature is another question. In this paper we analyse recent data on trade flows and price developments between Italy, Austria, Germany and France to understand the developments of wood pellet market efficiency and to draw conclusions about market function. The objective of this study is to establish a framework to test the European residential wood pellet market for competitive spatial equilibrium using modern trade theory. We find mainly inefficiently integrated markets with remaining positive marginal profits and detectable arbitrageurs’ activity. Based on a thorough discussion of these findings and the underlying data we outline possible methodology advancements and list policy recommendations to secure access and affordability of this renewable heating commodity in the long run.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Optimization under uncertainty of a hybrid waste tire and natural gas feedstock flexible polygeneration system using a decomposition algorithm

Market uncertainties motivate the development of flexible polygeneration systems that are able to adjust operating conditions to favor production of the most profitable product portfolio. However, this operational flexibility comes at the cost of higher capital expenditure. A scenario-based two-stage stochastic nonconvex Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) approach lends itself naturally to optimizing these trade-offs. This work studies the optimal design and operation under uncertainty of a hybrid feedstock flexible polygeneration system producing electricity, methanol, dimethyl ether, olefins or liquefied (synthetic) natural gas. A recently developed C++ based software framework (named GOSSIP) is used for modeling the optimization problem as well as its efficient solution using the Nonconvex Generalized Benders Decomposition (NGBD) algorithm. Two different cases are studied: The first uses estimates of the means and variances of the uncertain parameters from historical data, whereas the second assesses the impact of increased uncertain parameter volatility. The value of implementing flexible designs characterized by the value of the stochastic solution (VSS) is in the range of 260–405 M$ for a scale of approximately 893 MW of thermal input. Increased price volatility around the same mean results in higher expected net present value and VSS as operational flexibility allows for asymmetric exploitation of price peaks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Design and optimization of a modular hydrogen-based integrated energy system to maximize revenue via nuclear-renewable sources

Here, this paper demonstrates a novel modular distributed framework that uses optimal energy-dispatching strategies to enable greater flexibility and profitability in nuclear-renewable integrated energy systems (NR-IES). Hydrogen is used as a commodity in this framework since its production can improve grid stability and system operational flexibility, decarbonize heavy industry, and create an additional revenue stream for electricity generators, particularly nuclear power plants with high operational expenses. The proposed solution addresses the challenges associated with merging multiple software and services from various domains by using functional mock-up units (FMU) to co-simulate diverse subsystems designed in various platforms. The tightly coupled integrated energy system (IES) is optimized to maximize revenue by utilizing the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) technique to make smart dispatching decisions based on variable electricity prices and the availability of renewable energy. Proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm is used in training and testing the DRL agent. Over a period of 120 days, the proposed hydrogen-based IES framework showed about 10% revenue boost compared to a non-hydrogen generating baseline IES while also providing an easily-adoptable framework which can help to improve the flexibility of future generation nuclear power plants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Upcycling Mixed Spent Ni-Lean Cathodes into Ni-Rich Polycrystalline Cathodes

Sustainable battery recycling is vital for conserving resources and reducing environmental impacts. Current open- and closed-loop recycling strategies often focus on recovering individual components, making the reuse of mixed cathode materials a complex challenge. Meanwhile, the research on upcycling has been limited to using pristine cathode feedstocks and virgin materials for synthesis. Here, to address this issue, we present an upcycling approach for spent Ni-lean mixed cathode materials that integrate an upcycling hydrometallurgical recycling process with traditional hydrometallurgical methods. This strategy achieves a utilization of 92.31 mol % of recycled materials, enabling the regeneration of Ni-rich cathode materials while significantly reducing the reliance on virgin resources. The regenerated 83Ni cathode materials demonstrate physical properties comparable to those produced from virgin materials. Electrochemical evaluations using single-layer pouch cells show that both recycled and virgin cathodes exhibit initial specific capacity close to 201.1 mAh/g and maintain approximately 88 % capacity retention after 500 cycles. Additionally, 2Ah cells confirmed these findings, delivering 85 % capacity retention after about 900 cycles. Techno-economic analysis demonstrates notable environmental benefits, including reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption, achieving 232.75 MJ/kg of product, which is 8.6 % lower than traditional methods and comparable to direct upcycling. Furthermore, the upcycling hydrometallurgical recycling process generates the highest profit, proving its economic viability. This scalable and versatile process is adaptable to varying transition metal compositions, facilitating a closed-loop recycling system that bridges mixed spent cathodes with next-generation cathode materials, and offers a sustainable solution for managing waste battery materials.

Hydrometallurgical recycling↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Recycling Strategies for Catalyst and Acid During Catalytic Graphitization

With the aim of meeting the urgent demand for active anode materials (AAM) in energy storage systems, bio-based graphite (biographite) emerges as an affordable solution to de-risk the turbulent supply chain of critical minerals. Anode grade biographite requires high crystallinity and purity, which can be achieved by catalytic graphitization with iron, followed by acid washing. Therefore, a well-conceived process integration that recycles catalyst can be the starting point to commercialization. This study evaluates closed-loop catalyst recovery, and byproducts valorization scenarios through a technoeconomic framework to help understand the scale-up potential of biographite. For the acid washing, three reactors in series meet the required biographite purity at 99.95%. Iron and acid recovery can reduce material consumption and waste generation by ~95%, albeit at the expense of ~80% increase in capital costs. Recovery scenarios present similar capital and operational expenses, yielding minimum selling prices (MSP) near $6 kg-1 of biographite. Monte Carlo methodology reveals that feedstock price accounts for ~60% of MSP variance, followed by plant capacity ~20%. The likelihood of reaching a competitive profit margin of 30% in the U.S. AAM market sits at 85% average for recovery scenarios, and 103% when iron oxide is sold as byproduct. Additionally, an IRR >= 15% can be achieved for half of Monte Carlo simulations, representing promising early-stage results. Biographite production offers a strategic pathway to stabilize the anode market beyond China by integrating established technologies for a scalable, economically viable, and sustainable process. The role of catalyst recovery and byproducts utilization is critical for advancing the biomaterials industry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Proactive demand-side participation: Centralized versus transactive demand-Supply coordination

The active participation of demand-side flexible resources in the wholesale market price formation and load dispatch process is crucial to encouraging demand-side participation. This calls for a joint supply-demand coordination mechanism to fully take advantage of the flexible resources in distribution systems, including distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive loads (RLs). Here this paper aims at comparing and evaluating the centralized and transactive distribution-level market coordination mechanisms. We introduce the centralized and transactive demand-supply coordination mechanisms for the distribution-level market and elaborate on the structural difference between the two frameworks. Relevant metrics and test scenarios are proposed for a meaningful comparison. The key observations of the comparative study are generalized from the perspective of different entities in the market: fixed loads, flexible loads, DERs, and conventional generators. It is observed that while the centralized approach leads to socially optimum solutions, the transactive approach by allowing for competitive bidding at the distribution-level, results in clearing higher flexible demand, and thus higher electricity cost at the transmission-level. As a result, DERs and fixed loads receive a higher surplus in the centralized approach, while conventional generators and flexible loads are more profitable in the transactive approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Robust bidding strategy for aggregation of distributed prosumers in flexiramp market

Distributed prosumers (DPs) are the grid customers that own energy production/storage assets. Due to the flexibility and fast response of their assets, they can procure ancillary service products (ASP) in the wholesale market. An appealing ASP offered by California ISO in the real-time market (RTM) is flexiramp for which market participants do not submit direct offers, and the compensation is based on their energy opportunity costs. Here in this report, we propose a bidding strategy model for DP aggregator participation in the RTM considering energy and flexiramp. First, we develop a risk-averse optimization to determine the optimal energy and reserve product to trade in day-ahead market while considering proper amounts of flexiramp to trade in the RTM. In the RTM, to obtain optimal amounts of energy and flexiramp, the aggregator must submit hourly multi-level price-quantity energy bids for multiple RTM intervals with 15 min time-steps. On this basis, we propose a robust hourly economic bidding strategy model that determines the optimal energy bids in the RTM. We develop an adjustable robust counterpart of the model to address the RTM energy and flexiramp price uncertainties. The simulation results justify the efficacy of our proposed framework in gaining profits from the wholesale market.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Economic dispatch for electricity merchant with energy storage and wind plant: State of charge based decision making considering market impact and uncertainties

Here this paper investigates how the market impact of electricity merchants and uncertainty of wind generation affect their co-optimized scheduling policy, specifically for merchants who have both energy storage and wind plants. In the existing literature, merchants' trading actions are usually assumed not to affect market prices; however, a large-scale energy storage merchant's actions can affect market prices. To this end, we approximate the electricity price by a linear function of the quantity of power traded by the merchant in the reward function to achieve decision-making incorporating the market impact. This paper utilizes the dynamic programming approach to analyze merchants' optimal multi-period decision-making incorporating market impact, uncertain wind generation, and energy storage constraints. First, our results demonstrate that for a merchant with co-located energy storage facilities and wind power plants, the energy storage's feasible state of charge (SOC) range can be segmented into four possible sub-ranges by three analytically developed SOC reference points. The unique optimal trading decision can be achieved by comparing the current energy inventory and the SOC references of the next period. Second, our results show that market impact and uncertainties substantially change the optimal storage scheduling policy by impacting the values of the reference points. To mitigate the negative effect of the merchant's market impact on buying and selling actions, the merchant may reduce the amount of generating or pumping electricity each period to maximize profit. Moreover, we identify and investigate the trade-off between market price and transaction quantity. Our findings provide co-optimized scheduling guidance for electricity merchants with co-located energy storage and renewable power plants systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Industrial battery operation and utilization in the presence of electrical load uncertainty using Bayesian decision theory

Behind the meter battery storage is becoming increasing popular in all sectors, though enthusiasm has recently lagged in the industrial sector. Even though there may be many factors contributing to this including lack of innovation, prohibitive costs, and undesirable rate structures, a difficulty arises in accounting for uncertainty of electrical load in industrial facilities while still attempting to utilize battery storage as much as possible all while trying to achieve fiscal profitability. Here this study utilizes Gaussian process regression and Bayesian decision theory to organize load data and quantify electrical load uncertainty to properly and effectively discharge industrial battery storage. The study employs a simulation model to set battery load setpoints for the span of the utility billing period according to the degree of risk aversion. This combination of economic analysis according to utility billing period and utilization of degree of risk aversion to make decisions on the uncertainty of the data has not before been applied to battery storage. The method resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand by 3.8 % at the lowest amount of savings and lowest risk aversion. The highest risk aversion resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand of 7.5 %. The maximum reduction of peak load in any month was 13.8 % in the month of December with a relatively high risk aversion. With a the highest amount risk aversion tested, the model reduced demand ten of the twelve months of the year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Economic analysis of the benefits to petroleum refiners for low carbon boosted spark ignition biofuels

A refinery modeling framework is developed to estimate the benefits of blending high-quality biofuels directly with refinery gasoline components for attaining a premium grade fuel (also termed as Co-Optima Boosted SI gasoline here). Our results change the paradigm of bio-blendstocks (BBs) being competitors to fossil components, by identifying opportunities for refineries to add value to their product slate, from some favorable BB properties. This potential value can be characterized by calculating the breakeven value (BEV), as defined down below. The proposed modeling framework incorporates extensive data from (1) projected product over the next few decades, (2) crude oil and refinery products pricing, and (3) fuel specifications. The complete refinery models serve as a basis for assessing the value of biofuels, assuming profitability remains the same for representative petroleum refinery configurations. Our assessment showed wide range of variation of biofuels BEV from $\$$20-$\$$120/bbl, within the considered blending level and crude prices. Further, the BEV was correlated with the fuel octane ratings such as octane numbers (research, RON and motor octane numbers, MON) and both antiknock index (AKI, average of RON and MON) and sensitivity (S, difference between RON and MON), with a slightly higher correlation with the sensitivity. However, the expected decrease in gasoline demand for the upcoming years could negatively impact biofuels demand and value, in a business-as-usual scenario. Our analysis also showed a more valuable bio-blendstocks incorporation in smaller refineries since they can enhance the capabilities for producing specialty, high-value fuels/products, and introduce high octane-barrels into otherwise constrained blending operations. Additional implications towards refiners include opportunities to rebalance operations, access to high-value fuel markets, and synchronization with broader transportation industry trends. Furthermore, results indicate the value of Co-Optima boosted spark ignition (BSI) efficiency gains can extend to refiners to incentivize decarbonization and diversified feedstock production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Experimental and numerical investigation of proppant embedment and conductivity reduction within a fracture in the Caney Shale, Southern Oklahoma, USA

The current worldwide energy supply is insufficient to meet the rising demand. As a result, the energy prices are expected to keep soaring despite the recent increases in a variety of renewable energy resources. Although not renewable, shale oil and gas — “unconventional” hydrocarbon resources are relatively clean forms of energy resources, which still hold a vast share of the energy market. For many oil and gas companies, meeting profitable production goals from shale reservoirs is sometimes challenging, due to the loss of fracture conductivity and premature declines in the production. In this paper we investigate the stress-dependent changes in the hydraulic conductivity of proppant-filled fractures and mechanical fracture–proppant interactions in Caney Shale, a calcareous, organic-rich mudrock, through laboratory experiments and numerical modeling. American Petroleum Institute (API) fracture conductivity tests were conducted using 2% KCl on five locations within the Caney Shale that consisted of selecting three brittle (reservoir) zones and two ductile zones. Confining pressures ranged from 1,000 psi to 12,000 psi at 210 °F. Conductivity, permeability as well as embedment were measured during the test. Also, an additional, laboratory in-situ visualization test was conducted to examine the detailed proppant-shale matrix interaction under elevated stress (3,920 psi effective stress) and temperature (252 °F), with a synthetic reservoir fluid. Our experimental results have confirmed that improved fracture conductivity is attributed to proppant size, and that the increase in porosity of the proppant pack, closure pressure changes and the reduction in fracture conductivity are a function of many factors such as fracture closure stress.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Redesigning capacity market to include flexibility via ramp constraints in high-renewable penetrated system

Capacity markets can co-exist alongside the energy and ancillary markets to ensure the medium-term and long-term supply adequacy by remunerating the generation resources for their availability. With the substantially increasing deployment of renewable generation, the system needs more flexibility to quickly mitigate the variability and uncertainty caused by the renewable generation. However, the present capacity market model does not differentiate the flexibility of generating units, so it might not give appropriate pricing signals to more flexible units that are usually more expensive. This is particularly important considering the increasing penetration levels of renewable generation on the electric grid, which increases the need for flexible units. This paper proposes a novel capacity market model considering flexibility requirement (FR) under the high penetration levels of renewable generation. Therefore, the proposed model can give the market-clearing price (MCP) for not only peak load generation capacity but also flexibility requirement. Thus, flexible units will tend to receive more economic incentives than non-flexible units. In the case studies, the profitability of different generation resources under the proposed capacity market model is analyzed and compared to the present capacity market model. The results show that the proposed method can maintain system reliability with regard to both peak load and flexibility requirement efficiently.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A cash flow model of an integrated industrial CCS-EOR project in a petrochemical corridor: A case study in Louisiana

Petroleum refineries and petrochemical plants are major CO 2 sources, however, they are also significant capital and employment assets that are unlikely to be replaced in the near term. As a result, nations and states that are interested in reducing the carbon intensity of their economies will need to find ways to reduce the emissions of their existing industrial capacity. Industrial carbon capture provides one potential mechanism for reducing the carbon intensity of existing industrial facilities, however, an economically feasible capture system requires that the captured CO 2 be integrated into a system of transport and storage with income generated either through tax credits, enhanced oil recovery (EOR), or both. Here, we present a cash-flow model of an integrated system with industrial capture, pipeline transport, and EOR, and we parameterize the model with data from Louisiana. Given a 50/bbl oil price, an integrated capture, transport and EOR system that uses ethylene oxide production, ammonia production, or natural gas processing as sources is predicted to have a net present value of about $500 million; hydrogen-based capture has a cash flow of -214 given the same assumptions. Further, we find that the recent 45Q Tax Credit expansion has a positive impact on the cash flow of the system but does not change the overall profitability of the systems under the specified assumptions such that without the tax credits natural gas processing, ammonia production and ethylene oxide production-based capture systems remain cost-effective, while hydrogen-based capture remains unprofitable with or without the tax credit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cost details from front-end engineering design of piperazine with the advanced stripper

This Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to estimate the cost to capture and compress 90% of the CO 2 from an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) in Denver City, Texas, USA. The FEED used the PZAS (Piperazine with the Advanced Stripper) 2G amine scrubbing technology developed and modeled by The University of Texas at Austin. This FEED is unique in providing more public cost details than other FEEDs funded by DOE. The primary objective of the FEED was to provide a comprehensive estimate for the total installed cost of the capture plant. The estimated capital cost of NGCC at the Mustang Station is $\$727$ million for a capacity of 460 MW and 1.6 million tonnes CO 2 /yr. This includes a contingency of $\$104.6$ million and a contractor’s profit of $\$60.1$ million. The total direct field cost is $\$384.1$ million. With an optimistic fuel value of $\$3$/MMBtu, the estimated cost of capture varies from $\$85$/t at 4% IRR/85% load to $\$170$/t at 10% IRR/52% load. Air cooling is technically feasible but expensive. The air cooling systems for the water wash and pump-around intercooling account for 23.4% of the direct cost. The gas-fired boilers represent only 4% of the direct costs, but steam extraction would reduce energy cost, free up cooling water, and reduce the direct costs of processing additional flue gas and CO 2 from the boilers. The absorbers represent 9.6% of the direct cost in this FEED with no direct contact cooler and only 7.6 m of packing. Furthermore, the solvent cross exchangers are less expensive than expected (2.5% of direct costs). Doubling the number of these exchangers could reduce the heat duty from 3.0 to 2.5 GJ/t CO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment for electrochemical ammonia production using proton conducting membrane

Green ammonia production is facing increasing interest on a global scale as a hydrogen carrier for power generation as well as fertilizer for food production. The conventional Haber-Bosch method for ammonia synthesis is energy demanding, requires high purity hydrogen, and is based on fossil fuels. A preliminary techno-economic model for electrochemical ammonia synthesis at near ambient pressure using feed rates of 32 metric ton/day for hydrogen and 135 metric ton/day for nitrogen is presented in this study. Various pathways using different methods for nitrogen generation and hydrogen production were investigated to gain insight into added energy savings per metric ton of ammonia. Electrochemical synthesis using electrolysis for hydrogen and cryogenic nitrogen was found to be a potentially viable pathway for green ammonia. The profitability metrics including discounted cash flow rate of return, net present value and discounted payback period were estimated to be 8%, $40 MM, and 4–6 years respectively for this pathway. The cost of electricity, conversion rate, and conversion efficiency dominate the tonnage cost of ammonia and were used to assess the feasibility of the model. A life cycle assessment was also conducted to assess the environmental impact of a well to product ammonia process.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Screening and evaluation of biomass upgrading strategies for sustainable transportation fuel production with biomass-derived volatile fatty acids

Biomass conversion to fuels and chemicals is crucial to decarbonization, but choosing an advantageous upgrading pathway out of many options is challenging. Rigorously evaluating all candidate pathways (process simulation, product property testing) requires a prohibitive amount of research effort; even simple upgrading schemes have hundreds of possible permutations. We present a method enabling high-throughput screening by approximating upgrading unit operations and drop-in compatibility of products (e.g., fuel properties) and apply it to volatile fatty acid (VFA) conversion to liquid transportation fuels via a MATLAB script, VFA Upgrading to Liquid Transportation fUels Refinery Estimation (VULTURE). VULTURE selects upgrading configurations that maximize fuel blend bio-derived content. We validate VULTURE's approximations through surrogate fuel property testing and process simulation. Techno-economic and life cycle analyses suggest that VFA upgrading processes down-selected by VULTURE are profitable and have low carbon intensities, demonstrating the potential for the strategy to accelerate process development timelines at decreased costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Leveraging automotive fuel cells can supply zero-emission peak power in the near-term

An increasingly decarbonized yet resilient power grid requires the corresponding build-out of dispatchable zero-emission resources to supply peak power. However, there is a recognized dearth of solutions which can serve multi-day peak demand events both cost-effectively and with near-term deployability. Here, we find that pairing low-cost automotive fuel cells with hydrogen storage in salt caverns can serve as a peaker plant at less than 500 US$/kW at present, a fraction of the cost of conventional fossil fuel-fired peakers. We demonstrate the peaker’s value for long duration storage by comparing it with pumped hydro and assessing its profitability within Texas’ energy-only market region. Although deployment of these peakers is constrained by the presence of salt caverns, we show that a number of sites in the United States and Europe are endowed with suitable salt formations, while utilizing hydrogen storage in pressurized containers could form a location-agnostic peak power solution.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗