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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Compilation and Analysis of 20- and 30-GHz Rain Fade Events at the ACTS NASA Ground Station: Statistics and Model Assessment

Since the beginning of the operational phase of the NASA Research Center's Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS), signal-fade measurements have been recorded at the NASA Ground Station located in Cleveland, Ohio, with the use of the 20- and 30-GHz beacon signals. Compilations of the daily data have been statistically analyzed on a monthly and yearly basis. Such analyses have yielded relevant parameters as (1) cumulative monthly and yearly probability distributions of signal attenuation by rain, (2) attenuation duration versus attenuation threshold probabilities, and (3) rate-of-fade probabilities. Not only are such data needed for a realistic data base to support the design and performance analysis of future satellite systems, but they are necessary to assess predictions made with the ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model.

Manning, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Statistical Treatment of Bioassay Pour Fractions

The binomial probability distribution is used to treat the statistics of a microbiological sample that is split into two parts, with only one part evaluated for spore count. One wishes to estimate the total number of spores in the sample based on the counts obtained from the part that is evaluated (pour fraction). Formally, the binomial distribution is recharacterized as a function of the observed counts (successes), with the total number (trials) an unknown. The pour fraction is the probability of success per spore (trial). This distribution must be renormalized in terms of the total number. Finally, the new renormalized distribution is integrated and mathematically inverted to yield the maximum estimate of the total number as a function of a desired level of confidence ( P(<n)=LOC ). Selected results of the indicated numerical calculations are presented. For LOC=0.5, or the likely value, the estimates differ little from the usual calculation: the number of spores counted divided by the pour fraction. The extension to recovery efficiency corrections is also presented. Now the product of recovery efficiency and pour fraction may be small enough that the likely value may be much larger than the usual calculation: the number of spores divided by that product. The use of this analysis would not be limited to microbiological data.

000000↗
NASA NTRS1973

Space shuttle solid rocket booster recovery system definition, volume 1

The performance requirements, preliminary designs, and development program plans for an airborne recovery system for the space shuttle solid rocket booster are discussed. The analyses performed during the study phase of the program are presented. The basic considerations which established the system configuration are defined. A Monte Carlo statistical technique using random sampling of the probability distribution for the critical water impact parameters was used to determine the failure probability of each solid rocket booster component as functions of impact velocity and component strength capability.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1985

On the application of a hairpin vortex model of wall turbulence to trailing edge noise prediction

The goal is to develop a technique via a hairpin vortex model of the turbulent boundary layer, which would lead to the estimation of the aerodynamic input for use in trailing edge noise prediction theories. The work described represents an initial step in reaching this goal. The hairpin vortex is considered as the underlying structure of the wall turbulence and the turbulent boundary layer is viewed as an ensemble of typical hairpin vortices of different sizes. A synthesis technique is examined which links the mean flow and various turbulence quantities via these typical vortices. The distribution of turbulence quantities among vortices of different scales follows directly from the probability distribution needed to give the measured mean flow vorticity. The main features of individual representative hairpin vortices are discussed in detail and a preliminary assessment of the synthesis approach is made.

Liu, N. S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian retrieval of optically relevant properties from hyperspectral water-leaving reflectances

Current methods to retrieve optically relevant properties from ocean color observations do not explicitly make use of prior knowledge about property distributions. Here we implement a simplified Bayesian approach that takes into account prior probability distributions on two sets of five optically relevant parameters, and conduct a retrieval of these parameters using hyperspectral simulated water-leaving reflectances. We focus specifically on the ability of the model to distinguish between two optically similar phytoplankton taxa, diatoms and Noctiluca scintillans. The inversion retrieval gives most-likely concentrations and uncertainty estimates, and we find that the model is able to probabilistically predict the occurrence of Noctiluca scintillans blooms using these metrics. We discuss how this method can be expanded to include a priori covariances between different parameters, and show the effect of varying measurement uncertainty and spectral resolution on Noctiluca scintillans bloom predictions.

Zachary K Erickson↗
NASA NTRS1974

The definition and specification of the near earth environmental criteria for spacecraft thermal design

The variation of the earth's thermal and albedo radiation received by a near-earth orbiting space vehicle or space payload as a result of temporal variation of the earth atmosphere is discussed. A statistical study of current satellite data for determining probability distributions is proposed. With these distributions the thermal designer can define confidence levels on predicted temperature ranges which are compatible with engineering models for use in design, failure probabilities, and spacecraft cost estimates. Use of the distributions in environmental criteria guidelines is also considered.

Gary, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Physical Invariants of Intelligence

A program of research is dedicated to development of a mathematical formalism that could provide, among other things, means by which living systems could be distinguished from non-living ones. A major issue that arises in this research is the following question: What invariants of mathematical models of the physics of systems are (1) characteristic of the behaviors of intelligent living systems and (2) do not depend on specific features of material compositions heretofore considered to be characteristic of life? This research at earlier stages has been reported, albeit from different perspectives, in numerous previous NASA Tech Briefs articles. To recapitulate: One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Mathematical models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable physical behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. At the time of reporting the information for this article, the focus of this research was upon the following aspects of the formalism: Intelligence is considered to be a means by which a living system preserves itself and improves its ability to survive and is further considered to manifest itself in feedback from the mental dynamics to the motor dynamics. Because of the feedback from the mental dynamics, the motor dynamics attains quantum-like properties: The trajectory of the physical aspect of the system in the space of dynamical variables splits into a family of different trajectories, and each of those trajectories can be chosen with a probability prescribed by the mental dynamics. From a slightly different perspective, the mechanism of decision-making is feedback from the mental dynamics to the motor dynamics, and this mechanism provides a quantum-like collapse of a random motion into an appropriate deterministic state, such that entropy undergoes a pronounced decrease. The existence of this mechanism is considered to be an invariant of intelligent behavior of living systems, regardless of the origins and material compositions of the systems.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS1987

Pitch angle distributions of low-energy ions in the near-earth magnetosphere

Energetic ion composition data acquired by satellite have been used to study the characteristics of ion pitch angle distributions in the near-earth magnetosphere. Both H(+) and O(+) ions below 1 keV were most frequently observed to have bidirectional field-aligned or conical pitch angle distributions inside L of about 6, with the exception of highly trapped H(+) very near the magnetic equator. The occurrence probability distributions of counterstreaming ions (CSI) and bidirectional conics in magnetic local time and L shell space suggest that the observed CSI were formed near the postmidnight sector and subsequently drifted eastward, and that ions close to the field-aligned direction were probably lost due to charge exchange with atmospheric hydrogen in the course of their eastward drift. In the prenoon sector, conical distributions dominated. Bidirectional ions were vary rarely observed in the afternoon sector, presumably because their drift paths crossed the magnetopause into the dayside magnetosheath.

Sagawa, E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Weibull Distribution From Interval Inspection Data

Most likely failure sequence assumed. Memorandum discusses application of Weibull distribution to statistics of failures of turbopump blades. Is generalization of well known exponential random probability distribution and useful in describing component-failure modes including aging effects. Parameters found from experimental data by method of maximum likelihood.

Rheinfurth, Mario H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Gravitational microlensing of high-redshift supernovae by compact objects

An analysis of the effect of microlensing by a cosmologically dominant density of compact objects is performed, using high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia's) as probes. The compact objects are modeled as a three-dimensional distribution of point masses, and Monte Carlo simulations are done to calculate the resulting amplification probability distributions for several column densities and cosmologies. By combining these distributions with the intrinsic SN Ia luminosity function and comparing with the results for a perfectly smooth universe, estimates are made of the number of supernovae that would need to be observed to confirm or rule out this lensing scenario. It is found that about 1000 SN Ia's with redshifts of z = 1 would be needed to perform this test, which is beyond what current searches can hope to accomplish. Observations of many fewer high-redshift supernovae, used merely as standard candles, appears a promising way of distinguishing between different cosmological models.

Rauch, Kevin P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Iterative Focusing - Part 1

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights from the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Alternative Lagrangians and Uncountable Move Spaces - Part 2

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights &om the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Solar microclimatology

It has become apparent in recent years that solar energy can be used for electric power production by several methods. Because of the diffuse nature of the solar insolation, the area involved in any central power plant design can encompass several square miles. A detailed design of these large area collection systems will require precise knowledge of the local solar insolation. Detailed information will also be needed concerning the temporal nature of the insolation and the local spatial distribution. Therefore, insolation data was collected and analyzed for a network of sensors distributed over an area of several square kilometers in Arizona. The analyses of this data yielded probability distributions of cloud size, velocity, and direction of motion which were compared with data obtained from the National Weather Service. Microclimatological analyses were also performed for suitable modeling parameters pertinent to large scale electric power plant design. Instrumentation used to collect the data is described.

Mckenney, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Canopy architecture of a walnut orchard

A detailed dataset describing the canopy geometry of a walnut orchard was acquired to support testing and comparison of the predictions of canopy microwave and optical inversion models. Measured canopy properties included the quantity, size, and orientation of stems, leaves, and fruit. Eight trees receiving 100 percent of estimated potential evapotranspiration water use and eight trees receiving 33 percent of potential water use were measured. The vertical distributions of stem, leaf, and fruit properties are presented with respect to irrigation treatment. Zenith and probability distributions for stems and leaf normals are presented. These data show that, after two years of reduced irrigation, the trees receiving only 33 percent of their potential water requirement had reduced fruit yields, lower leaf area index, and altered allocation of biomass within the canopy.

Ustin, Susan L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Measurement of the light-field amplitude-correlation function through joint photon-count distributions.

When an amplitude-stabilized He-Ne laser beam is scattered by a rotating ground glass with small surface inhomogeneities, the probability density of the instantaneous scattered-wave amplitude is Gaussian. In this paper, we suggest the use of the joint photon-count probability distribution to measure the absolute value of the electric-field amplitude-correlation function for random Gaussian light fields, and report the results of an experiment in which the Gaussian field is produced by scattering a light beam through a rotating ground glass. This procedure offers an alternative to other conventional methods, such as self-beating spectroscopy and irradiance-correlation techniques. The correlation time of the scattered-field amplitude in the present experiment has been measured with an accuracy of approximately 0.8%.

Furcinitti, P.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Optimum structural sizing for gust induced response

The present paper describes an optimization capability for sizing airframe structures that are subjected to a combination of deterministic and random loads. Design constraints are implemented to prevent structural failure in fatigue and due to a single exceedance of the allowable stress. The random load is treated as a stationary, homogeneous process with a Gaussian probability distribution, and a frequency domain method is used for the computation of dynamic response parameters. An equal-probability-of-load-combination criterion is proposed in the formulation of strength constraints. This alleviates problems associated with the incomplete phase information available when using power spectral density methods. The optimization procedure is illustrated by examples using typical built-up structures.

Hajela, P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Bayesian approach to microwave precipitation profile retrieval

A multichannel passive microwave precipitation retrieval algorithm is developed. Bayes theorem is used to combine statistical information from numerical cloud models with forward radiative transfer modeling. A multivariate lognormal prior probability distribution contains the covariance information about hydrometeor distribution that resolves the nonuniqueness inherent in the inversion process. Hydrometeor profiles are retrieved by maximizing the posterior probability density for each vector of observations. The hydrometeor profile retrieval method is tested with data from the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (10, 19, 37, and 85 GHz) of convection over ocean and land in Florida. The CP-2 multiparameter radar data are used to verify the retrieved profiles. The results show that the method can retrieve approximate hydrometeor profiles, with larger errors over land than water. There is considerably greater accuracy in the retrieval of integrated hydrometeor contents than of profiles. Many of the retrieval errors are traced to problems with the cloud model microphysical information, and future improvements to the algorithm are suggested.

Evans, K. Franklin↗
NASA NTRS1997

Applications of Bayesian Statistics to Problems in Gamma-Ray Bursts

This presentation will describe two applications of Bayesian statistics to Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBS). The first attempts to quantify the evidence for a cosmological versus galactic origin of GRBs using only the observations of the dipole and quadrupole moments of the angular distribution of bursts. The cosmological hypothesis predicts isotropy, while the galactic hypothesis is assumed to produce a uniform probability distribution over positive values for these moments. The observed isotropic distribution indicates that the Bayes factor for the cosmological hypothesis over the galactic hypothesis is about 300. Another application of Bayesian statistics is in the estimation of chance associations of optical counterparts with galaxies. The Bayesian approach is preferred to frequentist techniques here because the Bayesian approach easily accounts for galaxy mass distributions and because one can incorporate three disjoint hypotheses: (1) bursts come from galactic centers, (2) bursts come from galaxies in proportion to luminosity, and (3) bursts do not come from external galaxies. This technique was used in the analysis of the optical counterpart to GRB970228.

Meegan, Charles A.↗