SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Prediction Accuracy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2015

SSI-ARC Flight Test 3 Data Review

The "Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Integration into the National Airspace System (NAS)" Project conducted flight test program, referred to as Flight Test 3, at Armstrong Flight Research Center from June - August 2015. Four flight test days were dedicated to the NASA Ames-developed Detect and Avoid (DAA) System referred to as Autoresolver. The encounter scenarios, which involved NASA's Ikhana UAS and a manned intruder aircraft, were designed to collect data on DAA system performance in real-world conditions and uncertainties with four different surveillance sensor systems. Resulting flight test data and analysis results will be used to evaluate the DAA system performance (e.g., trajectory prediction accuracy, threat detection) and to add fidelity to simulation models used to inform Minimum Operating Performance Standards (MOPS) for integrating UAS into routine NAS operations.

detect and avoid↗

NASA NTRS2016

UAS Integration in the NAS Project: Flight Test 3 Data Analysis of JADEM-Autoresolver Detect and Avoid System

The Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the National Airspace System project, or UAS Integration in the NAS, aims to reduce technical barriers related to safety and operational challenges associated with enabling routine UAS access to the NAS. The UAS Integration in the NAS Project conducted a flight test activity, referred to as Flight Test 3 (FT3), involving several Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) research prototype systems between June 15, 2015 and August 12, 2015 at the Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This report documents the flight testing and analysis results for the NASA Ames-developed JADEM-Autoresolver DAA system, referred to as 'Autoresolver' herein. Four flight test days (June 17, 18, 22, and July 22) were dedicated to Autoresolver testing. The objectives of this test were as follows: 1. Validate CPA prediction accuracy and detect-and-avoid (DAA, formerly known as self-separation) alerting logic in realistic flight conditions. 2. Validate DAA trajectory model including maneuvers. 3. Evaluate TCAS/DAA interoperability. 4. Inform final Minimum Operating Performance Standards (MOPS). Flight test scenarios were designed to collect data to directly address the objectives 1-3. Objective 4, inform final MOPS, was a general objective applicable to the UAS in the NAS project as a whole, of which flight test is a subset. This report presents analysis results completed in support of the UAS in the NAS project FT3 data review conducted on October 20, 2015. Due to time constraints and, to a lesser extent, TCAS data collection issues, objective 3 was not evaluated in this analysis.

flight test↗

NASA NTRS2018

Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Models Comparison to TMP17 and Next Steps

A set of empirical jet-surface interaction noise models, developed for single-stream round nozzles exhausting over a simple surface in a static ambient, are evaluated for use in more realistic applications that include multi-stream nozzle systems with chevrons and dihedral surface geometries. The simple-single-stream models have several advantages when used in system-level noise studies: they are robust, they are quickly computed, and they are generally applicable to a wide range of configurations. However, these models rely on a fixed noise source distribution that does not account for the presence of chevrons at the nozzle exit. The effect of this omission on the prediction accuracy is shown by this comparison to experimental data. This motivates discussion of future work to develop a more robust modeling framework that can account for generalized source distributions and more complex airframe geometries. Re: Top-Mounted Propulsion (TMP17) Test Plans.

Propulsion Noise↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular perceived inequity that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based scheduling of internal departures by the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) (now operationally superseded by the FAA's the Time-Based Flow Management system). Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot easily fit into the arrival flow at the runway. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. TMA scheduling delays are found to be generally higher than TMA airborne metering delays, regardless of prior GDP delays. Depending on how the double delay is defined, between 42 and 62 of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling experienced double delays in this period. A deep dive into the data reveals that contributors to double delays include upstream flights departing before their Expect Departure Clearance Times (EDCTs); differences in the rates used for setting EDCTs and TMA Scheduled Times of Arrival; differences in the arrival demand expected based on EDCTs and the arrival demand entering TMA; and shorter en route times between takeoff and entry into TMA than assumed in the calculation of flight EDCTs, all of which undermine the sequencing and spacing underlying flight EDCTs. Double delays are also found to coincide with periods in which the virtual runway arrival queue being served by a TMA is large, there are periods of high demand relative to capacity, and there are high airborne metering delays. Data mining techniques are used to confirm that each of these factors contribute to the occurrence of double delay andor high internal departure scheduling delay across three months of data from June to August 2010. Predictors of the occurrence of double delay and high TMA scheduling delay are built using logistic regression, providing prediction accuracies of 69 and 73, respectively.

traffic flow management↗

NASA NTRS2015

Taxi Time Prediction at Charlotte Airport Using Fast-Time Simulation and Machine Learning Techniques

Accurate taxi time prediction can be used for more efficient runway scheduling to increase runway throughput and reduce taxi times and fuel consumptions on the airport surface. This paper describes two different approaches to predicting taxi times, which are a data-driven analytical method using machine learning techniques and a fast-time simulation-based approach. These two taxi time prediction methods are applied to realistic flight data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) and assessed with actual taxi time data from the human-in-the-loop simulation for CLT airport operations using various performance measurement metrics. Based on the preliminary results, we discuss how the taxi time prediction accuracy can be affected by the operational complexity at this airport and how we can improve the fast-time simulation model for implementing it with an airport scheduling algorithm in real-time operational environment.

Lee, Hanbong↗

NASA NTRS2020

Revisiting OSIRIS-REx Touch-And-Go (TAG) Performance Given the Realities of Asteroid Bennu

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission is a NASA New Frontiers mission that launched in 2016 and rendezvoused with the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu in late 2018. Upon arrival, the surface of Bennu was found to be much rockier than expected. The original Touch-and-Go (TAG) requirement for sample collection was to deliver the spacecraft to a site with a 25-meter radius; however, the largest hazard-free sites are no larger than 8 meters in radius. To accommodate the dearth of safe sample collection sites, the project reevaluated all aspects of flight system performance pertaining to TAG in order to account for the demonstrated performance of the spacecraft and navigation prediction accuracies. More-over, the project has base lined on board natural feature tracking instead of lidar for providing the on board navigation state update during the TAG sequence. This paper summarizes the improvements in error source estimation, enhancements in on board trajectory correction, and results of recent Monte Carlo simulation to en-able sample collection with the given constraints. TAG delivery and on board navigation performance are presented for the final four candidate TAG sites.

Berry, Kevin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System-Wide Benefit Metrics

The presentation discusses goals for real-time metrics, new fields available in the ATD-2 System for displaying metrics to users, and analyses on delay prediction accuracy and delay savings.

Jeremy Coupe↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transonic Lift and Drag Predictions using Wall Modelled Large Eddy Simulations

Wall-modelled Large Eddy Simulations (WMLES) of the NASA Common Research Model (CRM) at transonic conditions and various angles of attacks leading up to and including shock-induced flow separation are performed using the LAVA computational framework. The simulations are shown to accurately predict the lift curve slope and the onset of separation characterized by the break in the pitching moment. Furthermore, careful assessment of skin-friction drag at cruise condition and its subsequent decrease with increasing angles of attack are shown to be in agreement with viscous sublayer resolving Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes(RANS) simulations. The small differences between WMLES and RANS appear to be of the same order as differences seen between two RANS models at the cruise-point. Some sensitivity is observed to the coefficient used in the subgrid scale model, although this can be reconciled by noting the low chord- and shock-incidence Reynolds numbers (Rex≈106) seen in the outboard regions of the wing, along with the uncertainties associated with tripping and the numerical transition that occurs near the leading edge. Among the primary drawbacks seen in the WMLES predictions is the subdued increase in wave-drag with increasing angle-of-attack and the shock intensity when compared with experimental data. Preliminary assessment suggests that additional span- and stream-wise grid resolution is likely needed in mid- and out-board portions of the wing to better resolve the shock-induced separated flow and to further investigate prediction accuracy of unsteady temporal characteristics of the problem.

ARMD↗

NASA NTRS2021

Raman Temperature and Density Measurements in Supersonic Jets

Prediction of flow-field properties in supersonic jets using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code predictions has become routine; however, obtaining accurate solutions becomes more challenging when there is a significant temperature difference between the jet core and the ambient air and/or compressibility effects are significant. Benchmark sets of flow field property data are required in order to assess current CFD capabilities and develop better modeling approaches for these turbulent flow fields where accurate calculation of temperatures and turbulent heat flux is important. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), spontaneous rotational Raman scattering (SRS) spectroscopy and Background Oriented Schlieren (BOS) have been previously used to acquire measurements of the mean and root mean square (rms) velocities, the mean and rms gas temperatures and density gradients in subsonic jet flows and film cooling flows. In this work, the ability to measure density is added to the list of measurands available using the acquired Raman spectra. The suite of measurement techniques are now applied to supersonic jet flows. The computation of the local gas pressure in the potential core of an over-expanded jet is demonstrated using the Raman measured gas temperature and density. Additionally, a unique density feature in temperature matched, perfectly expanded jet flow shear layers identified using BOS was verified using the Raman measurement technique. These non-intrusive flow measurements are compared against RANS predictions of the supersonic jet flow properties as a means of assessing their prediction accuracy.

Raman Spectroscopy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Scaling Methodology for Buckling of Composite Conical Shells in Axial Compression

Conical shells are commonly used as structural components for launch vehicles. The axial compression experienced during launch is one of the sizing load cases, because it can lead to loss of stability. As Because experimentally testing these large full-scale structures is cumbersome and expensive, it is studied how reduced-scale shells can be designed such that their buckling behavior is representative of the full-scale scale shell behavior. An analytical, sequential scaling procedure methodology is developed based on the nondimensional governing equations for composite conical shells with a symmetric, balanced layup and negligible flexural anisotropy. The buckling behavior of the shells of different size is compared using linear and nonlinear finite element analyses, and good comparisons . Accurate results are obtained for the considered shells in terms of buckling load, displacement, and mode. The inclusion of a geometric imperfections affects reduces the prediction accuracy, but it does not to the extent that the methodology is no longer valid cause the methodology to fail.

Buckling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Experimental, Computational, Theoretical and Analytical Investigation of Flow Boiling in Reduced Gravity

Two-phase thermal management systems are far superior to their single-phase counterparts because of their ability to capitalize on the coolant’s both sensible and latent heats, thereby yielding orders of magnitude higher heat transfer coefficients and smaller system footprints. A vital knowledge necessary for their implementation in future space systems is performance in microgravity. Long-duration microgravity experiments are necessary to obtain reliable databases, which would then be used to build reliable predictive tools. To achieve this goal, investigators at the Purdue University Boiling and Two-Phase Flow Laboratory (PU-BTPFL) and the NASA Glenn Research Center (NASA-GRC) have been collaborating towards the development of the Flow Boiling and Condensation Experiment (FBCE) and eventual execution onboard the International Space Station (ISS). FBCE has now matured to a point where it is ready for transport to the ISS, where first tests will be conducted using the Flow Boiling Module (FBM). In preparation for the ISS tests, a series of pre-launch Mission Sequence Tests (MSTs) was performed at GRC in Earth gravity with FBM mounted in a vertical upflow orientation using n-perfluorohexane as working fluid. The pre-launch tests included variations of flow rate, surface heat flux, inlet conditions, and both single-sided and double-sided wall heating. This presentation will summarize experimental results from these tests as well as both analytic and theoretical tools for prediction of two-phase heat transfer coefficient and critical heat flux (CHF). Also discussed will be an assessment of predictive accuracy of these tools against the experimental data.

Mission Sequence tests↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design of a Lunar Plume-Surface Interaction Measurement System

Plume-surface interactions between a rocket plume and the lunar surface will be studied in-situ during two of NASA’s upcoming Commercial Lunar Payload Services Program missions. The payload, Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume-Surface Studies (SCALPSS), will employ a multiple-camera photogrammetry system to obtain stereo images of the lunar regolith before, during, and after significant erosion and subsequent crater formation. The evaluation of measurement system capabilities and design process of the payload is informed by computational fluid dynamics predictions, accuracy modeling based on experimental data, camera simulation, and lander design, all of which are combined in the Virtual Diagnostic Interface. The second SCALPSS mission, traveling to the moon on Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost lander in early 2023, aims to build on the design and complexity of the first payload, which is launching in early 2022 on Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C lander. The Blue Ghost SCALPSS mission will include two additional cameras and a total of three different lens focal lengths which will target specific points in the vehicle’s descent to obtain quantitative and accurate 3D reconstruction of the lunar surface both prior to and after crater formation.

photogrammetry↗

NASA NTRS2022

Flow Visualization, Heat Transfer, and Critical Heat Flux of Flow Boiling in Earth Gravity with Saturated Liquid-Vapor Mixture Inlet Conditions – In Preparation for Experiments Onboard the International Space Station

This study investigates flow boiling of n-Perfluorohexane with saturated two-phase mixture inlet in a rectangular channel of dimensions 114.6-mm heated length, 2.5-mm width, and 5 mm-height. The experiments were performed as part of the Mission Sequence Testing of the Flow Boiling and Condensation Experiment’s (FBCE) Flow Boiling Module (FBM) in the vertical upflow configuration in Earth gravity using the same experimental system that was launched to the International Space Station (ISS) in August 2021. The operating parameters varied are heating configuration (single- and double-sided), mass velocity (380 – 2400 kg/m2s), inlet quality (0.011 – 0.519), and inlet pressure (120 – 179 kPa). High-speed video photographs are presented to explain the two-phase flow patterns within the channel’s heated length. Flow patterns are constituted by low-density and high-density fronts moving along the channel, with the high-density fronts gradually reducing in length due to evaporation. Heat transfer results in terms of flow boiling curves, streamwise wall temperature profiles, streamwise heat transfer coefficient profiles, and average heat transfer coefficients are presented and trends discussed. CHF data from the present experiments are combined with prior databases to compile a consolidated FBCE-CHF database for saturated inlet to expand the ranges of operating conditions and include other flow orientations in Earth gravity. Experimental CHF trends are also discussed. The interfacial lift-off model shows a good CHF predictive accuracy evidenced by a mean absolute error of 11.97% for this consolidated database after constraining it to mass velocities greater than or equal to 500 kg/m2s. Finally, this study confirmed reliability of the upcoming ISS experiments for saturated inlet conditions and the collected Earth-gravity data will be compared to ISS microgravity data.

Flow boiling↗

NASA NTRS2022

NASA Engineering and Safety Center Technical Bulletin No. 22-04: Uncertainty Quantification of Reduced Order Structural Dynamic Models

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on finite element model (FEM) uncertainty. An alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) combines a parametric variation of the Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method. This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating Solar Radiation Pressure Modeling for Operations in Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit

NASA’s Gateway program will build a crew-tended station in an Earth-Moon Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO). Deep space operations differ considerably from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) operations in the environmental modeling, orbit geometry, and propagation timespans in operations. The cislunar environment, as opposed to the LEO environment, lacks atmospheric drag and is simultaneously affected by the gravity of both the Earth and the Moon, and solar radiation pressure (SRP) has a significant effect. This paper investigates the impacts of various SRP models on prediction accuracy, attitude control accuracy, orbit determination performance, and computational burden.

Guidance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Process Model Results to Fracture Model Initial Conditions for Adhesive Bonding

A systematic approach is proposed for mapping adhesive bonding process outcomes to initial conditions for progressive damage analysis (PDA). Herein, two mapping procedures are developed: 1) direct mapping for residual stresses, strains, and deformations obtained from a process model; and 2) functional mapping for quantities such as bondline thickness, degree of cure, and porosity that are assumed to have a functional relationship with fracture toughness but are not discretely modeled in the PDA. The spatial distribution of functionally mapped quantities may be determined by process modeling or inspection. The functional maps between the quantity of interest and fracture toughness may be obtained from independent lower-scale numerical simulations or empirical test campaigns. The proposed mapping procedure links the adhesive bonding process to the structural performance. Therefore, by accounting for the effects of bondline nonuniformities in structural analysis, analytical predictive accuracy can be improved, and off-nominal conditions can be evaluated. The mapping procedures are demonstrated and verified with example problems.

Andrew C Bergan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Process Model Results to Fracture Model Initial Conditions for Adhesive Bonding

Andrew Bergan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On Generalizably Improving RANS Predictions of Flow Separation and Reattachment

This work presents progress in an ongoing data-driven turbulence modeling effort at NASA Langley Research Center to improve predictions for separated flows. Two augmentation strategies are presented – one to improve predictions for the point of reattachment after smooth-body separation, and another to improve predictions for flow separation due to prolonged adverse pressure gradients. The reattachment augmentation was inspired from lessons learned during attempts at using field inversion and machine learning (FIML); however, it is prescribed as a conventional analytic closed-form expression. Results show that, when introduced into the SST k-w model, it shortens the otherwise overpredicted separation bubble length for three cases characterized by different Reynolds numbers and flow geometries. The second augmentation, which addresses flow separation under prolonged adverse pressure gradients, is inferred via FIML and applied as a neural network within the Spalart-Allmaras model. It uses features that are chosen such that the presented results show an improved predictive accuracy for the training case without affecting other cases where the augmentation is not needed. Further testing is required to establish the generalizability of this augmentation. The rationale behind the chosen features that serve as inputs to both these augmentations is also presented for the benefit of the reader.

machine learning↗