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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Tuning Process for the Modified Magnussen Combustion Model

In the application of CFD to turbulent reacting flows, one of the main limitations to predictive accuracy is the chemistry model. Using a full or skeletal kinetics model may provide good predictive ability, however, at considerable computational cost. Adding the ability to account for the interaction between turbulence and chemistry improves the overall fidelity of a simulation but adds to this cost. An alternative is the use of simple models, such as the Magnussen model, which has negligible computational overhead, but lacks general predictive ability except for cases that can be tuned to the flow being solved. In this paper, a technique will be described that allows the tuning of the Magnussen model for an arbitrary fuel and flow geometry without the need to have experimental data for a particular case. The tuning is based on comparing the results of the Magnussen model and full finite-rate chemistry when applied to perfectly and partially stirred reactor sim- ulations. In addition, a modification to the Magnussen model is proposed that allows the upper kinetic limit for the reaction rate to be set, giving better physical agreement with full kinetic mechanisms. In order to improve the agreement with flame temperatures, the thermal properties of the product species is adjusted to better match the mixture proper- ties of the full mechanism. The combustion model is then applied to the simulation of a representative scramjet flowpath, and the results compared to experimental data and other kinetic models. This procedure allows a simple reacting model to be used in a predictive manner, and affords significant savings in computational costs for CFD simulations.

Norris, A. T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Event-Based Energy Impact Tracking and Forecasting with Limited Measurements for Rooftop Units

Packaged air conditioning units and heat pumps, also known as rooftop units (RTUs), are responsible for almost 133 billion kWh of electricity usage annually on site for space cooling U.S. commercial buildings. In addition, the use of heat pumps is a trend we expect to accelerate as buildings transition from fossil fuel-based heating to electricity as a key step for decarbonizing the U.S. commercial buildings sector. However, the operation conditions and energy use of RTUs and heat pumps are usually not well monitored as they are not commonly integrated with building automation systems and lack exposed sensing and control points. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a framework for tracking and forecasting energy impacts resulting from degradation of performance and improved performance for unit servicing using limited data. The proposed framework makes use of a constrained dataset, specifically measurements of the outdoor air temperature and the power demand of individual RTUs, to track and forecast changes in energy use associated with changes in performance over various temporal horizons ranging from days to weeks. Following the detection of an RTU fault, performance degradation, or performance improvement, the framework employs a prediction model to assess the cumulative energy impact. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with field-collected data for servicing and degradation examples and compare the predicting accuracy of Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) Regression models to Support Vector Regression and Linear Regression models. The results show that GBDT achieved the best accuracy for time-series validation datasets for the servicing and degradation cases, and the prediction model was able to track the cumulative energy impacts of events. The proposed framework can inform building owners of the cumulative change in energy usage of RTUs associated with performance degradation, performance improvement, or a fault.

packaged air conditioners, packaged heat pumps, ro↗
DOE OSTI2022

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling direct from indirect relationships in association networks

Networks are vital tools for understanding and modeling interactions in complex systems in science and engineering, and direct and indirect interactions are pervasive in all types of networks. However, quantitatively disentangling direct and indirect relationships in networks remains a formidable task. Here, we present a framework, called iDIRECT (Inference of Direct and Indirect Relationships with Effective Copula-based Transitivity), for quantitatively inferring direct dependencies in association networks. Using copula-based transitivity, iDIRECT eliminates/ameliorates several challenging mathematical problems, including ill-conditioning, self-looping, and interaction strength overflow. With simulation data as benchmark examples, iDIRECT showed high prediction accuracies. Application of iDIRECT to reconstruct gene regulatory networks in Escherichia coli also revealed considerably higher prediction power than the best-performing approaches in the DREAM5 (Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods project, #5) Network Inference Challenge. In addition, applying iDIRECT to highly diverse grassland soil microbial communities in response to climate warming showed that the iDIRECT-processed networks were significantly different from the original networks, with considerably fewer nodes, links, and connectivity, but higher relative modularity. Further analysis revealed that the iDIRECT-processed network was more complex under warming than the control and more robust to both random and target species removal ( P < 0.001). As a general approach, iDIRECT has great advantages for network inference, and it should be widely applicable to infer direct relationships in association networks across diverse disciplines in science and engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning the Temporal Effect in Infrared Thermal Videos With Long Short-Term Memory for Quality Prediction in Resistance Spot Welding

With the advances of sensing technology, in-situ infrared thermal videos can be collected from Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) processes. Each video records the formulation process of a weld nugget. The nugget evolution creates a “temporal effect” across the frames, which can be leveraged for real-time, nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld quality. Currently, quality prediction with imaging data mainly focuses on optical feature extraction with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) but does not make the most of such temporal effect. In this study, pixels corresponding to critical locations on the weld nugget surface are extracted from a video to form multivariate time series (MTS). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used in MTS processing to remove noisy signals related to uninformative frames. A Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is developed to learn from the processed MTS and then predicts weld nugget size and thickness in real-time NDE. Results from a case study on RSW of Boron steel demonstrates the improvement in prediction accuracy and computational time with the proposed method, as compared to CNN-based weld quality prediction.

Guo, Shenghan↗
NASA NTRS1999

Fractal analysis of heart rate dynamics as a predictor of mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction. TRACE Investigators. TRAndolapril Cardiac Evaluation

A number of new methods have been recently developed to quantify complex heart rate (HR) dynamics based on nonlinear and fractal analysis, but their value in risk stratification has not been evaluated. This study was designed to determine whether selected new dynamic analysis methods of HR variability predict mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular (LV) function after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Traditional time- and frequency-domain HR variability indexes along with short-term fractal-like correlation properties of RR intervals (exponent alpha) and power-law scaling (exponent beta) were studied in 159 patients with depressed LV function (ejection fraction <35%) after an AMI. By the end of 4-year follow-up, 72 patients (45%) had died and 87 (55%) were still alive. Short-term scaling exponent alpha (1.07 +/- 0.26 vs 0.90 +/- 0.26, p <0.001) and power-law slope beta (-1.35 +/- 0.23 vs -1.44 +/- 0.25, p <0.05) differed between survivors and those who died, but none of the traditional HR variability measures differed between these groups. Among all analyzed variables, reduced scaling exponent alpha (<0.85) was the best univariable predictor of mortality (relative risk 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.96 to 5.15, p <0.0001), with positive and negative predictive accuracies of 65% and 86%, respectively. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, mortality was independently predicted by the reduced exponent alpha (p <0.001) after adjustment for several clinical variables and LV function. A short-term fractal-like scaling exponent was the most powerful HR variability index in predicting mortality in patients with depressed LV function. Reduction in fractal correlation properties implies more random short-term HR dynamics in patients with increased risk of death after AMI.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A review of coal heating value correlations with application to coal char, tar, and other fuels

Accurately measuring a fuel’s heating value is one of the first steps in the classification of a new fuel. Heating values are widely used in coal combustion research and are becoming more useful in other fuel types as well. Many different empirical correlations to predict heating values based on primary organic (CHONS) elemental composition are found in the literature, many of which were originally created to predict heating values of parent coal, and some of which have been extended for biomass. However, no correlations exist for heating values of coal chars and tars. Thirteen literature heating value correlations (10 model forms with 13 unique sets of coefficients) were evaluated for their predictive accuracy of a wide variety of fuel types, including 353 coals. This comparative analysis showed that the predictive capabilities of many of these literature models are very similar for coal-based fuels, with good correlation of coal char heating values. Correlation of coal tar heating values was hampered by the lack of heating value data. The choice of which model to use becomes more important for biomass fuels as well as for more unique fuel types like propellants and explosives, municipal solid waste, etc. Finally, the best model forms for each fuel type are suggested based on several statistical measures of fit.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Subseasonal Forecasting of Extreme Polar Vortices Using Machine Learning

Our research was focused on forecasting the position and shape of the winter stratospheric polar vortex at a subseasonal timescale of 15 days in advance. To achieve this, we employed both statistical and neural network machine learning techniques. The analysis was performed on 42 winter seasons of reanalysis data provided by NASA giving us a total of 6,342 days of data. The state of the polar vortex for determined by using geometric moments to calculate the centroid latitude and the aspect ratio of an ellipse fit onto the vortex. Timeseries for thirty additional precursors were calculated to help improve the predictive capabilities of the algorithm. Feature importance of these precursors was performed using random forest to measure the predictive importance and the ideal number of precursors. Then, using the precursors identified as important, various statistical methods were tested for predictive accuracy with random forest and nearest neighbor performing the best. An echo state network, a type of recurrent neural network that features sparsely connected hidden layer and a reduced number of trainable parameters that allows for rapid training and testing, was also implemented for the forecasting problem. Hyperparameter tuning was performed for each methods using a subset of the training data. The algorithms were trained and tuned on the first 41 years of data, then tested for accuracy on the final year. In general, the centroid latitude of the polar vortex proved easier to predict than the aspect ratio across all algorithms. Random forest outperformed other statistical forecasting algorithms overall but struggled to predict extreme values. Forecasting from echo state network suggested a strong predictive capability past 15 days, but further work is required to fully realize the potential of recurrent neural network approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-scale Multiphysics Simulations of Small Modular Reactors Operating in Natural Circulation

Thanks to the advancements in high-performance computing, advanced modeling and simulation have become crucial in driving the development and deployment of next-generation nuclear reactors, such as small modular reactors (SMRs). SMRs offer the promise of cost-effective baseload electricity production and improved safety, while addressing some of the challenges associated with large reactor designs, such as high capital costs and extended construction timelines. As part of the Exascale Computing Project, the large-scale multiphysics simulation of an entire SMR primary system has been achieved by combining computational fluid dynamics and neutronics. In addition to the successful demonstration of full-core SMR simulations, the current study integrated the impact of natural circulation into the system. Natural circulation is the primary mechanism driving coolant circulation in SMRs. The mass flow rate in the core depends on the core power, and a numerical model has been developed to predict it. The pressure drop caused by the helical coil steam generator was also accounted for by developing a pressure drop correlation based on high-fidelity large eddy simulation results, further improving prediction accuracy. In conclusion, the results of the study demonstrate that the implemented natural circulation model is effective in predicting the responses of SMR full-core multiphysics simulations.

ECP↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulation of Channel Flow with Square Ribs for Blanket First-Wall Cooling: Geometry-Specific Tuning of k-ω Model Using Adjoint Method

Cooling of the plasma-facing first wall is challenging in the design of blanket components because of the high heat flux (on the order of 𝑀𝑊/𝑚2) from the plasma, especially when a low thermal mass medium like helium is chosen as the coolant. Therefore, heat transfer enhancement in which the convective heat transfer rate is augmented by the addition of turbulence-promoting structures becomes a key initiative for providing sufficient cooling capability with helium. Previously, computational fluid dynamics simulations had been performed on pipe flows with different transverse and longitudinal ribbed geometries at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to compare the enhancement performance among different ribbed geometries. Rib shape morphing had been conducted to obtain an optimized rib profile. In the work presented here, the adjoint method is adopted in the ANSYS Fluent solver for turbulence model augmentation, and the Generalized k-ω (GEKO) turbulence model is employed because of its ability of tuning the turbulence model. The Nusselt number and pressure drop obtained from the channel flow with bottom ribbed wall experiments are used as the targets. Sensitivity analysis provides information as guidance to improve the turbulence model accuracy. The augmented GEKO model is tuned for the studied ribbed channel geometry and flow conditions, providing improved predictive accuracy within this context. Extension to other configurations offers potential but may require additional tuning and validation.

Xu, Tracy [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000193700887)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of transport in the JET DTE2 discharges with TGLF and NEO models using the TGYRO transport code

Abstract The JET Deuterium-Tritium-Experiment Campaign 2 (DTE2) has demonstrated the highest-ever fusion energy production. To forecast the transport dynamics within these discharges, the TGLF and NEO models within the TGYRO transport code were employed. A critical development in this study is the new quasilinear transport model, TGLF-SAT2, specifically designed to resolve discrepancies identified in JET deuterium discharges. This model accurately describes the saturated three-dimensional (3D) fluctuation spectrum, aligning closely with a database of nonlinear CGYRO turbulence simulations, thereby enhancing the predictive accuracy of TGYRO simulations. In validating against the JET DTE2 discharges across two primary operating scenarios, TGYRO effectively predicted the temperature profiles within a broad radial window ( ρ ∼ 0.2–0.85), though with minor ion temperature discrepancies near the core. However, a consistent underprediction of electron density profiles by 20% across the simulation domain was noted, indicating areas for future refinement. To achieve a self-consistent steady-state solution based on the JET DTE2 discharges, an integrated modeling workflow TGYRO-STEP within the OMFIT framework was introduced. This workflow iterates among the core transport, the pedestal pressure and the MHD equilibrium, ultimately yielding a converged solution that significantly reduces dependence on experimental boundary conditions for temperature and density profiles. The integrated simulation results show negligible differences in electron density and temperature profiles compared to standalone TGYRO modeling, while the ion temperature profile is lower due to the updated boundary condition in TGYRO-STEP. The application of the TGYRO-STEP workflow to JET DTE2 discharges serves as a crucial test to validate its robustness and highlights its limitations, providing valuable insights for its potential future application in ITER and Fusion Power Plant deuterium and tritium prediction modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Services Load Shift Baseline Degradation Analysis Methodology v1

As demand flexibility becomes more common, the mix and frequency of a range of demand flexibility strategies will introduce potential biases into baselines, i.e., the time period immediately prior to a LS event may include other LS or DF events. Baseline degradation assessment provides an approach to quantify how these biases begin to compromise predictive accuracy. Heatmaps, based on each month of the year provides a granular view of a given model's predictive capability. However, for comparing multiple algorithms, separately for weekdays and weekends, aggregating results to seasons provides a simpler means of comparison while still allowing for review of variations by time of day and time of year

Fernandes, Samuel↗
NASA NTRS1984

Modeling to predict pilot performance during CDTI-based in-trail following experiments

A mathematical model was developed of the flight system with the pilot using a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) to establish and maintain in-trail spacing behind a lead aircraft during approach. Both in-trail and vertical dynamics were included. The nominal spacing was based on one of three criteria (Constant Time Predictor; Constant Time Delay; or Acceleration Cue). This model was used to simulate digitally the dynamics of a string of multiple following aircraft, including response to initial position errors. The simulation was used to predict the outcome of a series of in-trail following experiments, including pilot performance in maintaining correct longitudinal spacing and vertical position. The experiments were run in the NASA Ames Research Center multi-cab cockpit simulator facility. The experimental results were then used to evaluate the model and its prediction accuracy. Model parameters were adjusted, so that modeled performance matched experimental results. Lessons learned in this modeling and prediction study are summarized.

Sorensen, J. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent equilibrium and transport simulations for NSTX-U plasmas enhanced via machine learning surrogate models

The Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) is an advanced equilibrium and transport code designed for simulating tokamak discharges at computational speeds suitable for control applications. COTSIM’s modular framework enables users to select models that balance accuracy with speed according to specific needs, allowing the code to operate from fast to faster-than-real-time performance levels. This work presents recent enhancements to COTSIM’s predictive accuracy for NSTX-U scenarios, achieved by integrating neural-network-based surrogate models and self-consistent equilibrium calculations. To improve source deposition predictions, a surrogate model for NUBEAM has been incorporated. Additionally, a surrogate model for the Multi-Mode Module (MMM) now supports predictions of anomalous thermal, momentum, and particle diffusivities—key factors for modeling the evolution of temperature and rotation. Each surrogate model was specifically trained for the NSTX-U operational regime to enhance COTSIM’s accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, COTSIM now couples fixed-boundary equilibrium solvers with its transport solvers, enabling self-consistent predictions of plasma profiles and equilibrium evolution over the discharge. Simulation results demonstrate strong agreement between COTSIM and TRANSP predictions for NSTX-U discharges. These substantial advancements expand COTSIM’s utility in model-based control applications for NSTX-U. Potential applications include simultaneous optimization of equilibrium and transport scenarios, integration into digital twins, real-time profile estimation (e.g., temperature and rotation) from limited or noisy measurements, and advanced feedback-based scenario control.

Equilibrium and transport modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

On Building Predictive Digital Twin Incorporating Wave Predicting Capabilities: Case Study on UMaine Experimental Campaign - FOCAL

The response of floating wind turbines (FWT) are susceptible to stochastic wave variations. For the optimal operation of FWT, a comprehensive understanding of the phaseresolved wave dynamics and the consequential system response is crucial for real-time monitoring and control. A multi-variate, multi-step, long short term memory (MLSTM), a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) is used to capture complex system dynamics for real-time application. Results indicate that the integration of a wave prediction-reconstruction (WRP) model substantially enhances prediction accuracy by 50% on average relative to the baseline model. The improvement is consistent across various wave extremity and prediction horizons, thereby significantly broadening the scope for timely and precise predictive capabilities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1974

Boundary layers in centrifugal compressors

The utility of boundary-layer theory in the design of centrifugal compressors is demonstrated. Boundary-layer development in the diffuser entry region is shown to be important to stage efficiency. The result of an earnest attempt to analyze this boundary layer with the best tools available is displayed. Acceptable prediction accuracy was not achieved. The inaccuracy of boundary-layer analysis in this case would result in stage efficiency prediction as much as four points low. Fluid dynamic reasons for analysis failure are discussed with support from flow data. Empirical correlations used today to circumnavigate the weakness of the theory are illustrated.

Dean, R. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A comparison of computational methods for three-dimensional, turbulent turbomachinery flow fields

A space-marching method and a time-marching method have been used to compute the three-dimensional turbulent flow in an end wall cascade of airfoils. Using an identical grid and turbulence model, the two codes were used to predict a variety of flow quantities. Predictions by the two methods are compared to each other and to experimental data. In general both methods predict measured quantities well, with a small edge in prediction accuracy going to the space-marching method. Secondary flow comparisons show the time-marching solution more accurately predicting the underturning of the flow in the outer portion of the end wall boundary layer while the space-marching method more accurately predicted the overturning of the flow very near the end wall. The prediction comparisons are discussed along with computational details and other attributes of the two methods.

Kirtley, K. R.↗