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At least 217 records · Page 12

A Framework for Addressing Hydropower Modeling Gaps in Electric Grid Planning and Operational Studies [Slides]

Realistic representation of hydropower in power system planning and operation studies is extremely important as it helps in avoiding under/over-estimation of the services the hydro power units can provide. A framework and tools have been developed to account for hydrological conditions and modify power system models accordingly. For example, HyDat – data and AI driven platform, that provides that data required for editing the power system model files Collaborative effort with V&R Energy. Also, development of POM based tools have been performed, a) Tool1: editing .raw files with realistic current and maximum hydrogeneration and redispatch of other units, and b) Tool2: Editing .dyr files to represent water head, current and maximum generation. Finally the framework, HASP framework combines HyDat and V&R energy tools to produce modified power system model files. Key Take-away points from contingency analysis studies include a) the number of critical contingencies increases as the water levels are reduced (70%>75%>80%), and b) both the extent and the quality of dynamic response of the Hydropower unit is different with varying water head levels.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Water Recovery From Cooling Tower Plumes

According to studies by the UN and the US State Department, we are on the path to an extreme freshwater shortage by 2030. The US’s largest water withdrawal source is power plants, which account for 39% of total US freshwater withdrawals, mostly for cooling. Cooling towers are the most common cooling system. To solve these problems and enable efficient water- based cooling – Infinite Cooling’s novel technology uses electric fields to ionize the air, charge the escaping water leaving cooling towers and direct the water toward mesh collectors where it collects and gets recycled for use in the cooling system. This technology was developed at MIT and was reduced to practice on a lab-scale prototype, and a prototype at the MIT Cogeneration Power Plant. This DOE award funded taking this technology from a lab-scale prototype to TRL 5 on an operating cooling tower in the field at the MIT Nuclear Research Laboratory. The funding helped to design and optimize an electrostatic plume collection system and test it in high-fidelity lab setting and in actual field conditions on a cooling tower. Throughout the award, Infinite Cooling investigated the formation of plumes on cooling towers, used that information to optimize the design, material and electrical properties of the collection device and quantified the collection yield via flow rate and water quality.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantum-Based Molecular Dynamics Simulations Using Tensor Cores

Tensor cores, along with tensor processing units, represent a new form of hardware acceleration specifically designed for deep neural network calculations in artificial intelligence applications. Tensor cores provide extraordinary computational speed and energy efficiency but with the caveat that they were designed for tensor contractions (matrix–matrix multiplications) using only low-precision floating-point operations. Despite this perceived limitation, we demonstrate how tensor cores can be applied with high efficiency to the challenging and numerically sensitive problem of quantum-based Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, which requires highly accurate electronic structure optimizations and conservative force evaluations. The interatomic forces are calculated on-the-fly from an electronic structure that is obtained from a generalized deep neural network, where the computational structure naturally takes advantage of the exceptional processing power of the tensor cores and allows for high performance in excess of 100 Tflops on a single Nvidia A100 GPU. Stable molecular dynamics trajectories are generated using the framework of extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, which combines computational efficiency with long-term stability, even when using approximate charge relaxations and force evaluations that are limited in accuracy by the numerically noisy conditions caused by the low-precision tensor core floating-point operations. A canonical ensemble simulation scheme is also presented, where the additional numerical noise in the calculated forces is absorbed into a Langevin-like dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Gravitational wave probes of massive gauge bosons at the cosmological collider

We extend the reach of the "cosmological collider" for massive gauge boson production during inflation from the CMB scales to the interferometer scales. Considering a Chern-Simons coupling between the gauge bosons and the pseudoscalar inflaton, one of the transverse gauge modes is efficiently produced and its inverse decay leaves an imprint in the primordial scalar and tensor perturbations. We study the correlation functions of these perturbations and derive the updated constraints on the parameter space from CMB observables. We then extrapolate the tensor power spectrum to smaller scales consistently taking into account the impact of the gauge field on inflationary dynamics. Our results show that the presence of massive gauge fields during inflation can be detected from characteristic gravitational wave signals encompassing the whole range of current and planned interferometers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CyRRL (Cyber Resilient Reinforcement Learning for grid voltage control) [SWR-24-115]

This codebase contains a multi-agent, actor-critic reinforcement learning implementation for cyber-resilient grid voltage control. It uses a 123-bus OpenDSS system as the environment, with three-phase power flow translating nodal power injections into solved nodal voltages. The reward function penalizes deviations from nominal voltage as well as reactive power dispatch, while encouraging agents to take actions that result in fast convergence to nominal conditions. The codebase models false data injection attacks and includes functionality for training, testing, hyper-parameter tuning, and visualization.

Murphy, Sinnott [National Renewable Energy Laborat↗

Cosmogenic background rejection for the sterile neutrino search with the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program Far Detector

As the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program Far Detector, the ICARUS liquid argon time-projection chamber will operate at shallow depth and therefore be exposed to the full surface flux of cosmic rays. This poses a problematic background to the sterile neutrino search. A direct way to reject this background is to surround the cryostat with a detector capable of tagging incident cosmic muons with high efficiency, the Cosmic Ray Tagging System (CRT). I have worked to develop the CRT detector hardware and the simulation and reconstruction software. This system, currently undergoing installation, is approximately 25% commissioned and taking data. I have developed a powerful method for cosmogenic background rejection utilizing the CRT and Photon Detection System. Results from a simulation based study, informed by CRT data, demonstrate the power of the technique in rejecting cosmogenic events with little adverse impact on the neutrino sample.

Hilgenberg, Christopher Michael↗

A Method for Estimating Time-Series PV Production Loss From Solar Tracking Failures

Solar tracking system failures can dramatically reduce photovoltaic (PV) system energy output through suboptimal irradiance capture and self-shading loss. Detecting tracker failures is not always straightforward; unlike other common PV system failures like inverter outages and blown fuses which take portions of a system completely offline, tracker failures only partially reduce output power and can go unnoticed as a result. Additionally, tracker failures can take one of several forms, each with their own loss characteristics. Here we present two methods of detecting tracker failure events from time-series production data and a method for estimating the associated production loss. Compared with existing detection methods, the proposed power-based detection method showed 0-17% reductions in Type I error rate depending on weather conditions. Here, the loss model estimated production loss with low error (mean bias error = -2.3 %, root-mean-squared error = 6%) in a rudimentary validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Early Alarm: Robust Event Analysis for Power Systems using 1-D Fully Convolutional Network

This work presents a novel deep learning model for early, accurate, and robust detection, recognition, and temporal localization of multi-type events in large-scale power systems. The proposed method develops a unified 1-D fully convolutional network (FCN) model that takes time series of raw frequency signals measured from a power system as input, extracts distinguishing features, and predicts at every temporal point in the time series if an event is happening and what the type of the event is. Compared to existing methods, the proposed model eliminates the necessity for hand-crafted feature extraction or complicated data pre-processing, can flexibly handle input signals of arbitrary length, and precisely infer the event occurrence time. Most importantly, the model is intentionally trained with incomplete patterns, such that it is more robust to partial features of an event which is common in real-world online recognition, resulting in early alarm for power system failures. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance to the state-of-the-art, and also shows strong robustness to noise and system oscillations.

Li, Chengcheng↗

Multifunctional Chiral Chemically‐Powered Micropropellers for Cargo Transport and Manipulation

Practical applications of synthetic self-propelled nano and microparticles for microrobotics, targeted drug delivery, and manipulation at the nanoscale are rapidly expanding. However, fabrication limitations often hinder progress, resulting in relatively simple shapes and limited functionality. Here, taking advantage of 3D nanoscale printing, chiral micropropellers powered by the hydrogen peroxide reduction reaction are fabricated. Due to their chirality, the propellers exhibit multifunctional behavior controlled by an applied magnetic field: spinning in place (loitering), directed migration in the prescribed direction, capture, and transport of polymer cargo particles. Design parameters of the propellers are optimized by computation modeling based on mesoscale molecular dynamics. It is predicted by computer simulations, and confirmed experimentally, that clockwise rotating propellers attract each other and counterclockwise repel. These results shed light on how chirality and shape optimization enhance the functionality of synthetic autonomous micromachines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Neutrino transport in general relativistic neutron star merger simulations

Abstract Numerical simulations of neutron star–neutron star and neutron star–black hole binaries play an important role in our ability to model gravitational-wave and electromagnetic signals powered by these systems. These simulations have to take into account a wide range of physical processes including general relativity, magnetohydrodynamics, and neutrino radiation transport. The latter is particularly important in order to understand the properties of the matter ejected by many mergers, the optical/infrared signals powered by nuclear reactions in the ejecta, and the contribution of that ejecta to astrophysical nucleosynthesis. However, accurate evolutions of the neutrino transport equations that include all relevant physical processes remain beyond our current reach. In this review, I will discuss the current state of neutrino modeling in general relativistic simulations of neutron star mergers and of their post-merger remnants. I will focus on the three main types of algorithms used in simulations so far: leakage, moments, and Monte-Carlo scheme. I will review the advantages and limitations of each scheme, as well as the various neutrino–matter interactions that should be included in simulations. We will see that the quality of the treatment of neutrinos in merger simulations has greatly increased over the last decade, but also that many potentially important interactions remain difficult to take into account in simulations (pair annihilation, oscillations, inelastic scattering).

Foucart, Francois (ORCID:0000000346174738)↗

Characterization of Highly Thermally Conductive Organic Substrates for a Double-Sided Cooled Power Module

Abstract Silicon-Carbide (SiC) power devices have become a promising option for traditional Silicon (Si) due to the superior material properties. To fully take advantage of the SiC devices, a high-performance power device packaging solution is necessary. This study proposes a cost-effective double-sided cooled (DSC) 1.2 kV SiC half-bridge power module using organic epoxy-resin composite dielectric (ERCD) substrates. The high mechanical and thermal performance of the power module is achieved by the low-modulus, moderate thermal conductivity, and relatively thin (120 μm) layer of ERCD material compared with traditional metal-clad ceramic approaches. This novel organic dielectric can withstand high voltage (5 kV @ 120 μm) and operate up to 250°C continuously, which is indispensable for high power applications. The thermal modeling results show that the equivalent thermal resistance junction-to-case (Rjc_eq) of the DSC power module using dual direct bonded copper (DBC) is 17% higher than the dual ERCD configuration. Furthermore, a non-insulated DSC power module concept is proposed for maximizing thermal performance by considering thermal vias in the ERCD substrate and direct-soldered heat sink. A thought process for optimization of thermal via design is demonstrated and it shows up to 24% of improvement on thermal performance compared with the insulated DSC power module.

Double-sided cooling, epoxy-resin composite dielec↗

Predictive and Cooperative Voltage Control with Probabilistic Load and Solar Generation Forecasting

This paper proposes predictive cooperative voltage control method in a power system with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) units. Cooperative distributed control of the reactive power output of PV inverters is coordinated with operation of voltage regulators (VRs) to maintain system voltages within an appropriate bandwidth. Probabilistic forecasting of the solar power generation and the loads is applied to estimate voltage changes which, in turn, are used to set the VR tap positions for preventing large voltage fluctuations with the lowest risk considering the voltage distribution estimation. The fine tuning of voltage adjustment is achieved by cooperative control of PV inverters to maintain a uniform voltage profile across the system. The proposed method is tested on the modified IEEE 123-node test feeder with high PV penetration using real insolation data and with constant loads replaced by several different load profiles. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the coordinated approach for voltage control with cooperative PV and predictive VR controls taking into account probabilistic load and solar power forecasts.

Cooperative Control↗

Enhanced Co-Expression Extrapolation (COXEN) Gene Selection Method for Building Anti-Cancer Drug Response Prediction Models

The co-expression extrapolation (COXEN) method has been successfully used in multiple studies to select genes for predicting the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. Here, we enhance the COXEN method to select genes that are predictive of the efficacies of multiple drugs for building general drug response prediction models that are not specific to a particular drug. The enhanced COXEN method first ranks the genes according to their prediction power for each individual drug and then takes a union of top predictive genes of all the drugs, among which the algorithm further selects genes whose co-expression patterns are well preserved between cancer cases for building prediction models. We apply the proposed method on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets and compare the performance of prediction models built based on the genes selected by the enhanced COXEN method to that of models built on genes selected by the original COXEN method and randomly picked genes. Models built with the enhanced COXEN method always present a statistically significantly improved prediction performance (adjusted p-value ≤ 0.05). Our results demonstrate the enhanced COXEN method can dramatically increase the power of gene expression data for predicting drug response.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

CALORIE: A Constraint Language and Optimizing Runtime for Exascale Power Management (Final Report)

This final technical report summarizes the key accomplishments on the CALORIE project, a DOE Early Career award received by PI Henry Hoffmann at the University of Chicago. CALORIE’s main goal was to create principled methodologies, tools, and practices to help scientists and high-performance computing (HPC) operators maximize the performance and insights obtained from scientific computing applications in the face of exascale power constraints. The project accomplished these goals by completing the following objectives: • Designing a language for describing application goals (including constraints and objectives) and system capabilities. The application goals will include things like which simulations or simulations plus in situ analysis will be run together, what the power constraints are, and what requirements there are for in situ analysis (for example, a desired frame rate for visualization). The system capabilities include all components that can be adjusted to tradeoff power and performance. • Designing a runtime system that takes specified goals and capabilities and dynamically determines what capabilities to use to meet the goals. This runtime adapts to changes in goals, application behavior, or available capabilities to automatically maintain the goals despite unexpected disturbances. • Developing a foundational understanding of how power constraints affect the problem of scheduling applications in large-scale systems. This report provides an overview of the accomplishments related to each of these key objectives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Power Sector Transformation Pathways: Exploring Objectives, Factors, and Technology Innovations to Inform Power Sector Pathway Decisions

The power and heating sectors are responsible for around 30% of global CO2 emissions and this share is likely to grow as countries move towards electrification of the transportation and building sectors. Therefore, enabling forward-thinking, long term strategies in the power sector is a crucial area for international collaboration and support. The rapid transition of power systems toward modern, low-carbon pathways and technologies will be necessary to meet key climate goals while also enabling other critical objectives such as economic development, energy access, and energy system resiliency, among others. Many developed and developing countries are well-poised to champion power sector transformation (PST), however, further support is needed to identify pathways and implement critical near and long-term actions. To address this need, the Low Emission Development Strategies Global Partnership (LEDS GP) together with an expert team including Agora Energiewende, Energy Innovation, European Climate Foundation, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research , Prayas Energy Group and LEDS Latin America and Caribbean Platform, developed a framework identifying four key pathways that can be integrated and combined to support low-carbon PST. These four pathways are: (1) Distributed Energy Resource Revolution, (2) Bulk Power Transformation, (3) Transmission and Distribution Interactivity, and (4) Distributed Transactional Future. To support exploration of pathways, this study examines PST objectives and factors that may lead countries or jurisdictions to place a greater relative emphasis on certain pathways as well as a framework and complementary tool for considering the emphasis in a hands on manner. The report provides case studies on application of the approach to bring life to the topic. The case studies include Haiti, Kenya, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the European Union, among others. The report also presents actions to-be-taken in the near-, medium- and long-term to support the realization of pathways and long-term transformation of the power sector. The report, together with a complementary spreadsheet tool developed under the effort, can be used to enable stakeholder engagement and visioning for the power sector over the long-term, taking into account key factors and potential innovations. It can also be used to understand and inform relevant analysis tools and models based on which pathways are emphasized, and to identify key actions in the near- and medium-term to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗