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Cramer-Rao efficiencies of best linear invariant estimators, using Weibull distribution in model for survival populations connected with life testing
Biomathematical model and least square estimation from time series data of discrete particle population in stochastic compartmental system
A simple resonance theory of three-body ion-atom association reactions is presented. The reaction is considered as proceeding through the formation of a long lived orbiting resonance complex between the atom and the ion. The population of these quasi-bound states is estimated assuming thermal equilibrium. A stable molecular ion may then be formed upon deactivation of the complex by collision with a third body. Various simplifying approximations to the potential curves and surfaces are employed. Furthermore, the deactivation cross sections for the relevant complexes are estimated from the corresponding atomic 'sizes.' A simple analytical formula for the three-body rate constant is thus derived. Reasonable agreement with experiment is obtained for He(+) in He and fair agreement for other light systems.
The energy contained in the highly excited vibrational and rotational states in a diatomic gas in a thermochemical nonequilibrium state during expansion is estimated. The estimation is made on the assumption that the populations of the vibrational and rotational states, when normalized by their respective equilibrium values, are describable by simple functions containing no more than four arbitrary parameters. A cubic polynomial, a logarithmic-cubic polynomial, and a bimodal step function are used for this purpose. The four parameters are determined by imposing conditions known at the ground state and the dissociation limit and the mass conservation law. The energy in excess of that accounted for by assuming a Boltzmann distribution of these states, defined here as excess excitation energy, is calculated for N2, O2, NO, CO, OH, and H2. A calculation made for a typical nozzle flow shows that the excess energy may reach 6 percent of the total enthalpy of the flow, and that the flow velocity may decrease by as much as 4 percent due to the nonequilibrium excitation phenomenon.
The earlier smaller bipolar study did not provide a high enough bin 0 population to directly observe test escapes and thereby estimate defect levels for the best bin. Results presented here indicate that the best bin can be reasonably expected to show a 2 - 5 factor improvement in defect levels over the average for the lot for moderate to high yields (the overall yield for these experiments was approximately 65%). The experiments also confirm the dependence of the best bin quality on test transparency. The defect level improvement is poorer for the case Of IDDQ escapes where the tests applied had a much higher escape rate. Overall experimental results are consistent with analytical projections for typical values of the clustering parameter in [9]. The final version of this paper will include extensive analysis to validate the analytical models based on this data.
The microbial burdens of 69 cabin air samples collected from commercial airliners were assessed via conventional culture-dependent, and molecular-based microbial enumeration assays. Cabin air samples from each of four separate flights aboard two different carriers were collected via air-impingement. Microbial enumeration techniques targeting DNA, ATP, and endotoxin were employed to estimate total microbial burden. The total viable microbial population ranged from 0 to 3.6 x10 4 cells per 100 liters of air, as assessed by the ATP-assay. When these same samples were plated on R2A minimal medium, anywhere from 2% to 80% of these viable populations were cultivable. Five of the 29 samples examined exhibited higher cultivable counts than ATP derived viable counts, perhaps a consequence of the dormant nature (and thus lower concentration of intracellular ATP) of cells inhabiting these air cabin samples. Ribosomal RNA gene sequence analysis showed these samples to consist of a moderately diverse group of bacteria, including human pathogens. Enumeration of ribosomal genes via quantitative-PCR indicated that population densities ranged from 5 x 10 1 ' to IO 7 cells per 100 liters of air. Each of the aforementioned strategies for assessing overall microbial burden has its strengths and weaknesses; this publication serves as a testament to the power of their use in concert.
The "Van Allen belts" of the trapped energetic particles in the Earth's magnetosphere were discovered by the Explorer I satellite in 1958. In addition, in 1959, it was observed that UHF radio emissions from Jupiter probably had a similar source -- the Jovian radiation belts. In this paper, the global characteristics of these two planets' trapped radiation environments and respective magnetosphere are compared and state-of-the-art models used to generate estimates of high-energy electron and proton populations - the dominate particles in these environments.
Researchers and developers of NextGen systems can use predictive human performance modeling tools as an initial approach to obtain skilled user performance times analytically, before system testing with users. This paper describes the CogTool models for a two pilot crew executing two different types of a datalink clearance acceptance tasks, and on two different simulation platforms. The CogTool time estimates for accepting and executing Required Time of Arrival and Interval Management clearances were compared to empirical data observed in video tapes and registered in simulation files. Results indicate no statistically significant difference between empirical data and the CogTool predictions. A population comparison test found no significant differences between the CogTool estimates and the empirical execution times for any of the four test conditions. We discuss modeling caveats and considerations for applying CogTool to crew performance modeling in advanced cockpit environments.
An effort is made to quantitatively model the collisional environment and surface evolution of asteroid 951 Gaspra prior to the flyby of the Galileo spacecraft later this year. Gaspra's average intrinsic collisional probability is calculated to be 5.4 x 10 to the -18th/sq km per year with a root mean square impact velocity of 5.0 km/sec. The projectile population and impact strength for Gaspra are highly uncertain and a range of values is considered. Based on these models, Gaspra is unlikely to be a primordial object surviving from the beginning of the solar system. It is most likely a second or multiple generation fragment forming about 100 million yr ago. For a low impact flux, the crater size distribution directly reveals the size distribution of the impacting population. For a nonequilibrium surface, model-dependent isochrons for estimating the age of the surface are given. Lower limits are set by the model for Gaspra's age (about 1 billion yr) and flux for the case of a high impact flux producing an equilibrium surface.
Air quality monitoring across Europe is mainly based on in situ ground stations which are too sparse to accurately assess the exposure effects of air pollution for the entire continent. The demand for precise predictive modelsthat estimate gridded geophysical parameters of ambient air at high spatial resolution has rapidly grown. Here, we investigate the potential of satellite derived products to improve particulate matter (PM) estimates. Bayesiangeostatistical models addressing confounding between the spatial distribution of pollutants and remotely sensed predictors were developed to estimate yearly averages of both, fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM10) surface PM concentrations at 1 sq.km spatial resolution over 46 European countries and were compared to geostatistical, geographically weighted and land-use regression formulations. Rigorous model selection identified the Earth observation data which contribute most to pollutants' estimation. Geostatistical models outperformed the predictive ability of the frequently employed land-use regression. The resulting estimates of PM10 and PM2.5, which represent the main air quality indicators for the urban Sustainable Development Goal, indicate that in 2016, 66.2% of the European population was breathing air above the WHO Air Quality Guidelines thresholds. Our estimates are readily available to policy makers and scientists assessing the effects of long-term exposure to pollution on human and ecosystem health.
The impact cratering record on Venus consists of 919 craters covering 98 percent of the surface. These craters are remarkably well preserved, and most show pristine structures including fresh ejecta blankets. Only 35 craters (3.8 percent) have had their ejecta blankets embayed by lava and most of these occur in the Atla-Beta Regio region; an area thought to be recently active. parabolic features are associated with 66 of the 919 craters. These craters range in size from 6 to 105 km diameter. The parabolic features are thought to be the result of the deposition of fine-grained ejecta by winds in the dense venusian atmosphere. The deposits cover about 9 percent of the surface and none appear to be embayed by younger volcanic materials. However, there appears to be a paucity of these deposits in the Atla-Beta Regio region, and this may be due to the more recent volcanism in this area of Venus. Since parabolic features are probably fine-grain, wind-deposited ejecta, then all impact craters on Venus probably had these deposits at some time in the past. The older deposits have probably been either eroded or buried by eolian processes. Therefore, the present population of these features is probably associated with the most recent impact craters on the planet. Furthermore, the size/frequency distribution of craters with parabolic features is virtually identical to that of the total crater population. This suggests that there has been little loss of small parabolic features compared to large ones, otherwise there should be a significant and systematic paucity of craters with parabolic features with decreasing size compared to the total crater population. Whatever is erasing the parabolic features apparently does so uniformly regardless of the areal extent of the deposit. The lifetime of parabolic features and the eolian erosion rate on Venus can be estimated from the average age of the surface and the present population of parabolic features.
Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025,60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause- effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.
Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.
Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.
Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in d e near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. We will also present results from experiments using a regional atmospheric-land surface modeling system. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.
The metal-poor stars in the halo of the Milky Way galaxy were among the first objects formed in our Galaxy. These Population II stars are the oldest objects in the universe whose ages can be accurately determined. Age determinations for these stars allow us to set a firm lower limit, to the age of the universe and to probe the early formation history of the Milky Way. The age of the universe determined from studies of Population II stars may be compared to the expansion age of the universe and used to constrain cosmological models. The largest uncertainty in estimates for the ages of stars in our halo is due to the uncertainty in the distance scale to Population II objects. We propose to obtain accurate parallaxes to a number of Population II objects (globular clusters and field stars in the halo) resulting in a significant improvement in the Population II distance scale and greatly reducing the uncertainty in the estimated ages of the oldest stars in our galaxy. At the present time, the oldest stars are estimated to be 12.8 Gyr old, with an uncertainty of approx. 15%. The SIM observations obtained by this key project, combined with the supporting theoretical research and ground based observations outlined in this proposal will reduce the estimated uncertainty in the age estimates to 5%).
The statistical equilibrium equations that determine the population densities of the energy levels in cometary C2 molecules due to fluorescent excitation are examined in detail. The adopted model and molecular parameters are discussed, and a theoretical estimate is made of the two intercombination transition moments. From the theoretical population densities in the various rotational levels, flux ratios and synthetic emission profiles are calculated as functions of the a 3Pi(u) - X 1Sigma(g)+ and the c 3Sigma(u)+ - X 3Sigma(g)+ intercombination transition moments. The influence of each of these two transitions separately on the vibrational and rotational excitation temperatures is investigated. The observed emission spectra of the (0,0) Swan band in Comet Halley are presented and compared to the synthetic profiles.
We present Chandra X-ray point source catalogs for 9 Hickson Compact Groups (HCGs, 37 galaxies) at distances of 34-89 Mpc. We perform detailed X-ray point source detection and photometry and interpret the point source population by means of simulated hardness ratios. We thus estimate X-ray luminosities (L(sub x)) for all sources, most of which are too weak for reliable spectral fitting. For all sources, we provide catalogs with counts, count rates, power-law indices (gamma), hardness ratios, and L(sub X), in the full (0.5-8.0 keV), soft (0.5-2.0 keV), and hard (2.0-8.0 keV) bands. We use optical emission-line ratios from the literature to re-classify 24 galaxies as star-forming, accreting onto a supermassive black hole (AGNs), transition objects, or low-ionization nuclear emission regions. Two-thirds of our galaxies have nuclear X-ray sources with Swift/UVOT counterparts. Two nuclei have L(sub X),0.5-8.0 keV > 10(exp 42) erg s−1, are strong multi-wavelength active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and follow the known alpha OX-νLν (nearUV) correlation for strong AGNs. Otherwise, most nuclei are X-ray faint, consistent with either a low-luminosity AGN or a nuclear X-ray binary population, and fall in the 'non-AGN locus' in alpha OX-νLν (nearUV) space, which also hosts other normal galaxies. Our results suggest that HCG X-ray nuclei in high specific star formation rate spiral galaxies are likely dominated by star formation, while those with low specific star formation rates in earlier types likely harbor a weak AGN. The AGN fraction in HCG galaxies with MR (is) less than −20 and L(sub X),0.5-8.0 keV (is) greater than 10(exp 41) erg s−1 is 0.08+0.35 −0.01, somewhat higher than the ∼5% fraction in galaxy clusters.