Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Population estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

Dynamical history of the Oort Cloud

Oort's hypothesis for the origin of long-period comets is reviewed, along with evidence for the existence of the Oort Cloud and recent research in stellar perturbations of cometary orbits. A Monte Carlo model is used to analyze the dynamics of comets in the Oort Cloud, to estimate the present and original populations of the cloud, and to examine implications for various theories of the origin of comets. The problem of interstellar comets is briefly considered. It is concluded that: (1) the weight of evidence favors Oort's hypothesis of a cloud of a trillion comets surrounding the solar system and extending out to about 100,000 AU; (2) the dynamical evolution of the cloud is consistent with observational data on long-period comets; and (3) estimates of the population necessary to produce the observed flux of dynamically new comets lead to physically reasonable values for the current and initial cloud masses.

Weissman, P. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clonality, local population structure, and gametophyte sex ratios in cryptic species of the Sphagnum magellanicum complex

Sphagnum (peatmoss) comprises a moss (Bryophyta) clade with approximately 300-500 species. The genus has unparalleled ecological importance because Sphagnum-dominated peatlands store almost a third of the terrestrial carbon pool and peatmosses engineer the formation and microtopography of peatlands. Genomic resources for Sphagnum are being actively expanded, but many aspects of their biology are still poorly known. Among these are the degree to which Sphagnum species reproduce asexually, and the relative frequencies of male and female gametophytes in these haploid-dominant plants. Here, we assess clonality and gametophyte sex ratios and test hypotheses about the local-scale distribution of clones and sexes in four North American species of the S. magellanicum complex. These four species are difficult to distinguish morphologically and are very closely related. We also assess microbial communities associated with Sphagnum host plant clones and sexes at two sites. 405 samples of the four species, representing 57 populations, were subjected to RADseq. Analyses of population structure and clonality based on the molecular data utilized both phylogenetic and phenetic approaches. Multi-locus genotypes (genets) were identified using the RADseq data. Sexes of sampled ramets were determined using a molecular approach that utilized coverage of loci on the sex chromosomes after the method was validated using a sample of plants that expressed sex phenotypically. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Differences in fitness between genets was estimated as the numbers of ramets each genet comprised. Degree of clonality (numbers of genets/numbers of ramets [samples]) within species, among sites, and between gametophyte sexes were estimated. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Sphagnum-associated microbial communities were assessed at two sites in relation to Sphagnum clonality and sex. All four species appear to engage in a mixture of sexual and asexual (clonal) reproduction. A single ramet represents most genets but 2-8 ramets were detected for some genets. Only one genet is represented by ramets in multiple populations; all other genets are restricted to a single population. Within populations ramets of individual genets are spatially clustered, suggesting limited dispersal even within peatlands. Sex ratios are male-biased in S. diabolicum but female-biased in the other three species, although significantly so only in S. divinum. Neither species nor males/females differ in levels of clonal propagation. At St. Regis Lake (NY) and Franklin Bog (VT), microbial community composition is strongly differentiated between the sites, but differences between species, genets, and sexes were not detected. Within S. divinum, however, female gametophytes harbored 2-3 times the number oi of microbial taxa as males. These four Sphagnum species all exhibit a similar reproductive patterns that result from a mixture of sexual and asexual reproduction. The spatial patterns of clonally replicated ramets of genets suggest that these species fall between the so-called phalanx patterns where genets abut one another but do not extensively mix, because of limited ramet fragmentation, and the guerrilla patterns where extensive genet fragmentation and dispersal results in greater mixing of different genets. Although sex ratios in bryophytes are most often female-biased, both male and female biases occur in this complex of closely related species. The association of far greater microbial diversity for female gametophytes in S. divinum, which has a female-biased sex ratio, suggests additional research to determine if levels of microbial diversity are consistently correlated with differing patterns of sex ratio biases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

The derived population of luminous supersoft X-ray sources

The existence of a new class of astrophysical object, luminous supersoft X-ray sources, has been established through ROSAT satellite observations and analysis during the past approximately 3 yr. Because most of the radiation emitted by supersoft sources spans a range of wavelengths readily absorbed by interstellar gas, a substantial fraction of these sources may not be detectable with present satellite instrumentation. It is therefore important to derive a reliable estimate of the underlying population, based on the approximately 30 sources that have been observed to date. The work reported here combines the observational results with a theoretical analysis, to obtain an estimate of the total number of sources likely to be present in M31, the Magellanic Clouds, and in our own Galaxy. We find that in M31, where approximately 15 supersoft sources have been identified and roughly an equal number of sources are being investigated as supersoft candidates, there are likely to be approximately 2500 active supersoft sources at the present time. In our own Galaxy, where about four supersoft sources have been detected in the Galactic plane, there are likely to be approximately 1000 active sources. Similarly, with about six and about four (nonforeground) sources observed in the Large (LMC) and Small Magellanic Clouds (SMC), respectively, there should be approximately 30 supersoft sources in the LMC, and approximately 20 in the SMC. The likely uncertainties in the numbers quoted above, and the properties of observable sources relative to those of the total underlying population, are also derived in detail. These results can be scaled to estimate the numbers of supersoft sources likely to be present in other galaxies. The results reported here on the underlying population of supersoft X-ray sources are in good agreement with the results of a prior population synthesis study of the white dwarf accretor model for luminous supersoft X-ray sources. It should be emphasized, however, that the questions asked in these two investigations are distinct, that the approaches taken to answer these questions are largely independent and that the findings of these two studies could in principle have been quite different.

Di Stefano, R.STEFANO↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plasma-parameter dependence of ro-vibrational temperatures for H 2 in LHD divertor

We analyzed a thousand visible spectra of Fulcher-α band measured for divertor plasmas in Large Helical Device. With a coronal model and Bayesian inference, the population distribution of hydrogen molecule in the electronic ground state was estimated. The non-thermal population distribution was recovered with a two-temperature model, which has two sets of rotational and vibrational temperatures, as well as their mixture coefficient. The lower rotational temperature significantly changes according to the plasma parameters. Its nearly linear dependence on the electron density was found, which is consistent with previous works. The lower vibrational temperature also shows a small density dependence, as reported by a previous work. On the other hand, the higher rotational and vibrational temperatures as well as the mixture coefficient only show slight changes over the broad range of plasma parameters. These population parameters show a significant correlation; with higher electron density, all the temperatures and the fraction of the higher-temperature component increase simultaneously. In conclusion, this suggests that the electron impact plays an important role to determine the population distribution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Yield, chemistry, and TEA/LCA data for 84 switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) variants

Switchgrass yield, chemistry, technoeconomic assessment (TEA), and life cycle assessment (LCA) data referenced in the manuscript "Economics and Sustainability impacts of yield and composition variation in bioenergy crops: Panicum virgatum L.", Happs, et. al. (manuscript in revision at ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering). These results are based on analysis of yield data generated from a set of switchgrass common garden experiments established by the Center for Bioenergy Innovation (CBI; https://cbi.ornl.gov/). These data include estimates of commercial-scale yields and characterization of biomass chemistry (fermentable carbohydrate fraction) for 84 different switchgrass variants from a genome-wide association study population, as well as estimates of minimum fuel selling price and various life-cycle footprint metrics for cellulosic ethanol produced from that switchgrass biomass.

switchgrass, biofuels↗
NASA NTRS1992

Isoperiodic neuronal activity in suprachiasmatic nucleus of the rat

A subpopulation of neurons in the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) is shown here to exhibit isoperiodic bursting activity. The period of discharge in these cells may be lengthened or the periodicity may be transiently disrupted by photic stimulation. It is suggested that many, if not all, of these cells are vasoactive intestinal polypeptide (VIP) neurons. It is shown that the ultradian periodicity of these cells, estimates of the VIP neuron population size in the SCN, effects of partial lesions on tau (period), and estimates of the phase stability of SCN-driven circadian rhythms are consistent with a strongly coupled, multioscillator model of circadian rhythmicity, in which the oscillator population constitutes a restricted subset of the SCN neuronal population.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗
NASA NTRS2013

Continental-Scale Mapping of Adelie Penguin Colonies from Landsat Imagery

Breeding distribution of the Adlie penguin, Pygoscelis adeliae, was surveyed with Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data in an area covering approximately 330 of longitude along the coastline of Antarctica.An algorithm was designed to minimize radiometric noise and to retrieve Adlie penguin colony location and spatial extent from the ETM+data. In all, 9143 individual pixels were classified as belonging to an Adlie penguin colony class out of the entire dataset of 195 ETM+ scenes, where the dimension of each pixel is 30 m by 30 m,and each scene is approximately 180 km by 180 km. Pixel clustering identified a total of 187 individual Adlie penguin colonies, ranging in size from a single pixel (900 sq m) to a maximum of 875 pixels (0.788 sq km). Colony retrievals have a very low error of commission, on the order of 1% or less, and the error of omission was estimated to be 3% to 4% by population based on comparisons with direct observations from surveys across east Antarctica. Thus, the Landsat retrievals successfully located Adlie penguin colonies that accounted for 96 to 97% of the regional population used as ground truth. Geographic coordinates and the spatial extent of each colony retrieved from the Landsat data are available publically. Regional analysis found several areas where the Landsat retrievals suggest populations that are significantly larger than published estimates. Six Adlie penguin colonies were found that are believed to be previously unreported in the literature.

radiometric noise↗
NASA NTRS2022

Comparison of Two Statistical Models for Low Boom Dose-response Relationships with Correlated Responses

This study compares two statistical models to construct summary dose-response curves for low boom community noise surveys. Data from two NASA field surveys are used that consist of multiple responses per survey participant. These data require an approach that accounts for the correlation among repeated annoyance observations from the same participant. A multilevel model accounts for the correlation by allowing estimated parameters to vary with each survey participant. On the other hand, a population average model utilizes generalized estimating equations and accounts for the correlation via a userspecified within-subject correlation structure. A visual comparison of the dose-response curves for these two methods reveals similar results. When comparing specific points along the summary curves, the multilevel model yields more precise confidence bounds than the population average model. The similarity between the summary curves derived from each model lends validity to both approaches for approximating a population representative summary curve, though modeling assumptions may lend favor to the multilevel logistic modeling approach over the population average model.

dose-response↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparing Two Statistical Models for Low Boom Dose-response Relationships with Correlated Responses

This study compares two statistical modeling approaches to construct summary dose-response curves for low boom community noise surveys. NASA field survey data were used that consist of multiple responses from a survey participant. These data require an approach that accounts for the correlation among repeated annoyance observations from the same participant. A multilevel model accounts for the correlation by allowing estimated parameters to vary with each survey participant. On the other hand, a population average model utilizes generalized estimating equations and accounts for the correlation via a user-specified within-subject correlation structure. A visual comparison of the dose-response curves for these two methods reveals similar results. When comparing specific points along the summary curves, the multilevel model yields more precise confidence bounds than the population average model. The similarity between the summary curves derived from each model lends validity to both approaches for approximating a population representative summary curve.

X-59↗
NASA NTRS2021

Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods

Flooding affects more people than any other environmental hazard and hinders sustainable development. Investing in flood adaptation strategies may reduce the loss of life and livelihood caused by floods. Where and how floods occur and who is exposed are changing as a result of rapid urbanization4, flood mitigation infrastructure and increasing settlements in floodplains6. Previous estimates of the global flood-exposed population have been limited by a lack of observational data, relying instead on models, which have high uncertainty. Here we use daily satellite imagery at 250-metre resolution to estimate flood extent and population exposure for 913 large flood events from 2000 to 2018. We determine a total inundation area of 2.23 million square kilometres, with 255–290 million people directly affected by floods. We estimate that the total population in locations with satellite-observed inundation grew by 58–86 million from 2000 to 2015. This represents an increase of 20 to 24 per cent in the proportion of the global population exposed to floods, ten times higher than previous estimates. Climate change projections for 2030 indicate that the proportion of the population exposed to floods will increase further. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the satellite observations will improve our understanding of where floods are changing and how best to adapt. The global flood database generated from these observations will help to improve vulnerability assessments, the accuracy of global and local flood models, the efficacy of adaptation interventions and our understanding of the interactions between landcover change, climate and floods.

B.Tellman↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Genetic Basis of Wild Boar ( Sus scrofa ) and Its Connection to Classical Swine Fever Spread

Classical swine fever (CSF) is the one of the most devastating contagious diseases in domestic swine and wild boar/pigs (Sus scrofa). Population genetics is often used to estimate animal dispersal and can also help evaluate host population connectivity, which is crucial for understanding pathogen dispersal. We surveyed genetic population structure of boars using MIG-seq analysis to clarify the geographic barriers that influence boar dispersal in north-central Japan and to demonstrate the relationship between the spread of CSF infection among boars and their population structure. We obtained 382 single-nucleotide polymorphisms from 348 wild boar samples, and the results of STRUCTURE analysis indicated that the highest ΔK value was at K = 2, followed by K = 4. Based on these results, it is evident that the Abukuma river, a major river within north-central Japan, does not act as a barrier to the gene flow of boars, but rather that human infrastructure hinders their dispersal. Further, according to the time series change in the capture site of CSF-infected wild boar and the sum of the probability of belonging to each of the four clades in individual CSF-infected wild boar, our results indicated that the genetic structure of boar populations was correlated with the outbreak pathway of CSF across our study region. Our study suggests that predictions of disease spread, especially for widely distributed host species, is challenging because of the risk of cryptic breaks and changes in wide range connectivity; however, understanding the genetic population structure of wild boar can be a useful tool for predicting the spread of CSF. We concluded that genetic analysis of host population structure may have the possibility to improve predictions of the future dynamics of disease spread.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

PMA-PhyloChip DNA Microarray to Elucidate Viable Microbial Community Structure

Since the Viking missions in the mid-1970s, traditional culture-based methods have been used for microbial enumeration by various NASA programs. Viable microbes are of particular concern for spacecraft cleanliness, for forward contamination of extraterrestrial bodies (proliferation of microbes), and for crew health/safety (viable pathogenic microbes). However, a "true" estimation of viable microbial population and differentiation from their dead cells using the most sensitive molecular methods is a challenge, because of the stability of DNA from dead cells. The goal of this research is to evaluate a rapid and sensitive microbial detection concept that will selectively estimate viable microbes. Nucleic acid amplification approaches such as the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) have shown promise for reducing time to detection for a wide range of applications. The proposed method is based on the use of a fluorescent DNA intercalating agent, propidium monoazide (PMA), which can only penetrate the membrane of dead cells. The PMA-quenched reaction mixtures can be screened, where only the DNA from live cells will be available for subsequent PCR reaction and microarray detection, and be identified as part of the viable microbial community. An additional advantage of the proposed rapid method is that it will detect viable microbes and differentiate from dead cells in only a few hours, as opposed to less comprehensive culture-based assays, which take days to complete. This novel combination approach is called the PMA-Microarray method. DNA intercalating agents such as PMA have previously been used to selectively distinguish between viable and dead bacterial cells. Once in the cell, the dye intercalates with the DNA and, upon photolysis under visible light, produces stable DNA adducts. DNA cross-linked in this way is unavailable for PCR. Environmental samples suspected of containing a mixture of live and dead microbial cells/spores will be treated with PMA, and then incubated in the dark. Thereafter, the sample is exposed to visible light for five minutes, so that the DNA from dead cells will be cross-linked. Following this PMA treatment step, the sample is concentrated by centrifugation and washed (to remove excessive PMA) before DNA is extracted. The 16S rRNA gene fragments will be amplified by PCR to screen the total microbial community using PhyloChip DNA microarray analysis. This approach will detect only the viable microbial community since the PMA intercalated DNA from dead cells would be unavailable for PCR amplification. The total detection time including PCR reaction for low biomass samples will be a few hours. Numerous markets may use this technology. The food industry uses spore detection to validate new alternative food processing technologies, sterility, and quality. Pharmaceutical and medical equipment companies also detect spores as a marker for sterility. This system can be used for validating sterilization processes, water treatment systems, and in various public health and homeland security applications.

Venkateswaran, Kasthuri J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Acoustic and Genetic Approaches for Informing Population Status and Trends of Migratory Tree Bats

Through the systematic collection of acoustic and genetic data over time, a weight of evidence may be built that will support an improved understanding around population stability for migratory tree-roosting bat species. This information can be leveraged to infer the influence stressors have on population stability, and subsequently determine the level of response necessary to sustain healthy populations. Here, we synthesize the existing information related to bat population status and trends, uncertainty regarding existing estimates, current and novel methods for assessing population-level data, and recommendations for near-term and long-term studies to reduce uncertainty surrounding population data. Although this report focuses on wind energy development and bats, the methods used are broadly applicable and are being implemented by other industries, academia, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations. Through efforts outside of the wind energy industry, it is likely we will gain a better understanding of bat populations, but the pace of data collection and analysis will be expedited by further participation by the wind energy industry. In return, the wind energy industry will benefit by contributing to these efforts either by 1) discovering that the population status of the species of interest is stable or growing, which may prevent the need for listing one or more species; or 2) recognizing the population status of certain species is in decline and implementing relatively moderate measures to reduce wind turbine-related mortality in the near term to stave off more stringent measures, which may be necessary if action is delayed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of Hourly Meteorology by Balancing Authority Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of historical hourly meteorology and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly meteorology for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the conterminous United States. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. This dataset is derived from the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations (https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). More details on the TGW approach can be found at: https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/. If you use this dataset please also cite the raw TGW dataset (Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). To go from the TGW data to these BA-level aggregated data we first averaged the raw gridded data by county in the United States. That intermediate data step is also stored in MSD-LIVE (https://doi.org/10.57931/1960548). We then population-weight the county-level hourly data in order to create population-weighted meteorology time series for each BA. Historical populations are from the United States Census Bureau and the evolving future populations are based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The four climate scenarios crossed with the two SSPs yield eight different future projections for each BA: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotterssp3, rcp85hotterssp5. For the historical period and each of the eight future scenarios the dataset has hourly estimates of the population-weighted average of five meteorological variables: Temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and wind speed. All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The code to go from the raw TGW data to county-level and then BA-level projections is available at: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/im3components/tree/main/im3components/wrf_to_tell.

Balancing Authority↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm objects are an empirical extension from larger debris. The extension takes into account the results of micro-debris (from 10 micron to 1 mm) population modeling that is based on shuttle impact data, in the hope of making a smooth transition between micron and millimeter size regimes. This paper also includes a brief discussion on issues and potential future work concerning the analysis and interpretation of Goldstone radar data.

Xu, Y.-L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bootstrapping outperforms community‐weighted approaches for estimating the shapes of phenotypic distributions

Abstract Estimating phenotypic distributions of populations and communities is central to many questions in ecology and evolution. These distributions can be characterized by their moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) or diversity metrics (e.g. functional richness). Typically, such moments and metrics are calculated using community‐weighted approaches (e.g. abundance‐weighted mean). We propose an alternative bootstrapping approach that allows flexibility in trait sampling and explicit incorporation of intraspecific variation, and show that this approach significantly improves estimation while allowing us to quantify uncertainty. We assess the performance of different approaches for estimating the moments of trait distributions across various sampling scenarios, taxa and datasets by comparing estimates derived from simulated samples with the true values calculated from full datasets. Simulations differ in sampling intensity (individuals per species), sampling biases (abundance, size), trait data source (local vs. global) and estimation method (two types of community‐weighting, two types of bootstrapping). We introduce the traitstrap R package, which contains a modular and extensible set of bootstrapping and weighted‐averaging functions that use community composition and trait data to estimate the moments of community trait distributions with their uncertainty. Importantly, the first function in the workflow, trait_fill , allows the user to specify hierarchical structures (e.g. plot within site, experiment vs. control, species within genus) to assign trait values to each taxon in each community sample. Across all taxa, simulations and metrics, bootstrapping approaches were more accurate and less biased than community‐weighted approaches. With bootstrapping, a sample size of 9 or more measurements per species per trait generally included the true mean within the 95% CI. It reduced average percent errors by 26%–74% relative to community‐weighting. Random sampling across all species outperformed both size‐ and abundance‐biased sampling. Our results suggest randomly sampling ~9 individuals per sampling unit and species, covering all species in the community and analysing the data using nonparametric bootstrapping generally enable reliable inference on trait distributions, including the central moments, of communities. By providing better estimates of community trait distributions, bootstrapping approaches can improve our ability to link traits to both the processes that generate them and their effects on ecosystems.

Maitner, Brian S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Using GEO Optical Observations to Infer Orbit Populations

NASA's Orbital Debris measurements program has a goal to characterize the small debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region using optical telescopes ("small" refers to objects too small to catalog and track with current systems). Traditionally, observations of GEO and near-GEO objects involve following the object with the telescope long enough to obtain an orbit. When observing very dim objects with small field-of-view telescopes, though, the observations are generally too short to obtain accurate orbital elements. However, it is possible to use such observations to statistically characterize the small object environment. A telescope pointed at a particular spot could potentially see objects in a number of different orbits. Inevitably, when looking at one region for certain types of orbits, there are objects in other types of orbits that cannot be seen. Observation campaigns are designed with these limitations in mind and are set up to span a number of regions of the sky, making it possible to sample all potential orbits under consideration. Each orbit is not seen with the same probability, however, so there are observation biases intrinsic to any observation campaign. Fortunately, it is possible to remove such biases and reconstruct a meaningful estimate of the statistical orbit populations of small objects in GEO. This information, in turn, can be used to investigate the nature of debris sources and to characterize the risk to GEO spacecraft. This paper describes these statistical tools and presents estimates of small object GEO populations.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 9: Perspectives on a City in a Changing Climate 2008-2018

Cities experience multiple environmental shifts, stresses, and shocks—such as air and water pollution—and a variety of extreme events simultaneously and continuously. Current urban programs have focused on limiting the impacts of these conditions through a portfolio of multifaceted strategies, such as regulations and codes, management and restoration projects, and citizen engagement. Global climate change represents a new environmental dynamic to which cities now have to respond. While global climate change by definition has impacts world wide, residents and managers of cities, like New York, typically perceive changes in their own local environments. In most cities, temperature is warming with increasingly hotter and longer heatwaves, and heavier downpours are leading to more frequent inland flooding. In coastal cities, sea levels are rising, exacerbating coastal flooding. Analyzing and understanding the impacts of climate change on cities is important because of the dramatic growth in urban populations throughout the world. An estimated nearly 4.0 billion people reside in urban areas, accounting for 52% of the world’s population (UN, 2017). That percentage will increase dramatically in the coming decades as almost all of the growth to take place up to 2050 will be in urban areas (UN, 2017). The New York City metropolitan region (NYMR)—the five boroughs (equivalent to counties) of New York City and the adjacent 26 counties in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut—is an ideal model of an urban agglomeration. Approximately 8.6 million people live in the five boroughs and more than 15 million people live in the neighboring smaller cities, towns, and villages (City of New York, 2018a; US Census, 2017). The population of the five boroughs is projected to add 1 million people by 2030, while the total region is projected to reach 26.1 million (NYTC, 2015).

Solecki, William↗