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At least 217 records · Page 12

Environmental flows in the context of unconventional natural gas development in the Marcellus Shale

Quantitative flow-ecology relationships are needed to evaluate how water withdrawals for unconventional natural gas development may impact aquatic ecosystems. Addressing this need, we studied current patterns of hydrologic alteration in the Marcellus Shale region and related the estimated flow alteration to fish community measures. We then used these empirical flow-ecology relationships to evaluate alternative surface water withdrawals and environmental flow rules. Reduced high-flow magnitude, dampened rates of change, and increased low-flow magnitudes were apparent regionally, but changes in many of the flow metrics likely to be sensitive to withdrawals also showed substantial regional variation. Fish community measures were significantly related to flow alteration, including declines in species richness with diminished annual runoff, winter low-flow, and summer median-flow. In addition, the relative abundance of intolerant taxa decreased with reduced winter high-flow and increased flow constancy, while fluvial specialist species decreased with reduced winter and annual flows. Stream size strongly mediated both the impact of withdrawal scenarios and the protection afforded by environmental flow standards. Under the most intense withdrawal scenario, 75% of reference headwaters and creeks (drainage areas <99 km 2 ) experienced at least 78% reduction in summer flow, whereas little change was predicted for larger rivers. Moreover, the least intense withdrawal scenario still reduced summer flows by at least 21% for 50% of headwaters and creeks. The observed 90th quantile flow-ecology relationships indicate that such alteration could reduce species richness by 23% or more. Seasonally varying environmental flow standards and high fixed minimum flows protected the most streams from hydrologic alteration, but common minimum flow standards left numerous locations vulnerable to substantial flow alteration. This study clarifies how additional water demands in the region may adversely affect freshwater biological integrity. Furthermore, the results make clear that policies to limit or prevent water withdrawals from smaller streams can reduce the risk of ecosystem impairment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clustering representative days for power systems generation expansion planning: Capturing the effects of variable renewables and energy storage

Decision makers rely on models to make important regulatory, policy, and investment decisions. For power systems, these models must capture (i) the future challenges introduced by the integration of large quantities of variable renewable energy sources and (ii) the role that energy storage technologies should play. In this paper, we explore several different approaches to selecting representative days for generation expansion planning models, focusing on capturing these dynamics. Further, we propose a new methodology for adjusting the outputs of clustering algorithms that provides three advantages: the targeted level of net demand is captured, the underlying net demand shapes that define ramping challenges are accurately represented, and the relationship between annual energy and peak demand is captured. This weighting methodology reduces the magnitude of the error in the representative day based generation expansion planning models estimation of costs by 61% on average. The results also demonstrate the importance of carefully performing the clustering of representative days for both system costs and technology mix. In most cases improvements to the total cost of different representative day based expansion plans are realised where conventional generation capacity is substituted for energy storage. Based on the energy storage technology selected we conclude this capacity is being used to address ramping challenges as opposed to shifting renewable generation from off to on peak periods, reinforcing the importance of capturing detailed intraday dynamics in the representative day selection process.

Clustering↗

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Shift of Drivers of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Based on Regional Process-Based Modeling in the Mississippi River Basin During the Past Century

Soil erosion and sedimentation problems remain a major water quality concern for making watershed management policies in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). It is unclear whether the observed decreasing trend of stream suspended sediment loading to the mouth of the MRB over the last eight decades truly reflects a decline in upland soil erosion in this large basin. Here, for this work, we improved a distributed regional land surface model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, to evaluate how climate and land use changes have impacted soil erosion and sediment yield over the entire MRB during the past century. Model results indicate that total sediment yield significantly increased during 1980–2018, despite no significant increase in annual precipitation and runoff. The increased soil erosion and sediment yield are mainly driven by intensified extreme precipitation (EP). Spatially, we found notable intensified EP events in the cropland-dominated Midwest region, resulting in a substantial increase in soil erosion and sediment yield. Land use change played a critical role in determining sediment yield from the 1910s to the 1930s, thereafter, climate variability increasingly became the dominant driver of soil erosion, which peaked in the 2010s. This study highlights the increasing influences of extreme climate in affecting soil erosion and sedimentation, thus, water quality. Therefore, existing forest and cropland Best Management Practices should be revisited to confront the impacts of climate change on water quality in the MRB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monitoring Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations

The atmospheric concentration of methane has more than doubled since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Methane is the second-most-abundant greenhouse gas created by human activities and a major driver of climate change. This APS-Optica report provides a technical assessment of the current state of monitoring U.S. methane emissions from oil and gas operations, which accounts for roughly 30% of U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions. The report identifies current technological and policy gaps and makes recommendations for the federal government in three key areas: methane emissions detection, reliable and systematized data and models to support mitigation measures, and effective regulation.

02 PETROLEUM↗

The Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas: Open source soil data and tools supporting blue carbon research and policy

Abstract Quantifying carbon fluxes into and out of coastal soils is critical to meeting greenhouse gas reduction and coastal resiliency goals. Numerous ‘blue carbon’ studies have generated, or benefitted from, synthetic datasets. However, the community those efforts inspired does not have a centralized, standardized database of disaggregated data used to estimate carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we describe a data structure designed to standardize data reporting, maximize reuse, and maintain a chain of credit from synthesis to original source. We introduce version 1.0.0. of the Coastal Carbon Library, a global database of 6723 soil profiles representing blue carbon‐storing systems including marshes, mangroves, tidal freshwater forests, and seagrasses. We also present the Coastal Carbon Atlas, an R‐shiny application that can be used to visualize, query, and download portions of the Coastal Carbon Library. The majority (4815) of entries in the database can be used for carbon stock assessments without the need for interpolating missing soil variables, 533 are available for estimating carbon burial rate, and 326 are useful for fitting dynamic soil formation models. Organic matter density significantly varied by habitat with tidal freshwater forests having the highest density, and seagrasses having the lowest. Future work could involve expansion of the synthesis to include more deep stock assessments, increasing the representation of data outside of the U.S., and increasing the amount of data available for mangroves and seagrasses, especially carbon burial rate data. We present proposed best practices for blue carbon data including an emphasis on disaggregation, data publication, dataset documentation, and use of standardized vocabulary and templates whenever appropriate. To conclude, the Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas serve as a general example of a grassroots F.A.I.R. (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data effort demonstrating how data producers can coordinate to develop tools relevant to policy and decision‐making.

Holmquist, James R.↗

WE-G-BRA-03: Developing a Culture of Patient Safety Utilizing the National Radiation Oncology Incident Learning System (ROILS)

Purpose: To transition from an in-house incident reporting system to a ROILS standards system with the intent to develop a safety focused culture in the Department and enroll in ROILS. Methods: Since the AAPM Safety Summit (2010) several safety and reporting systems have been implemented within the Department. Specific checklists and SBAR reporting systems were introduced. However, the active learning component was lost due to reporting being viewed with distrust and possible retribution.To Facilitate introducing ROILS each leader in the Department received a copy of the ROILS participation guide. Four specific tasks were assigned to each leader: develop a reporting tree, begin the ROILS based system, facilitate adopting ROILS Terminology, and educate the staff on expectations of safety culture. Next, the ROILS questions were broken down into area specific questions (10–15) per departmental area. Excel spreadsheets were developed for each area and setup for error reporting entries. The Role of the Process Improvement Committee (PI) has been modified to review and make recommendations based on the ROILS entries. Results: The ROILS based Reporting has been in place for 4 months. To date 64 reports have been entered. Since the adoption of ROILS the reporting of incidents has increased from 2/month to 18/month on average. Three reports had a dosimetric effect on the patient (<5%) dose variance. The large majority of entries have been Characterized as Processes not followed or not sure how to Characterize, and Human Behavior. Conclusion: The majority of errors are typo’s that create confusion. The introduction of the ROILS standards has provided a platform for making changes to policies that increase patient safety. The goal is to develop a culture that sees reporting at a national level as a safe and effective way to improve our safety, and to dynamically learn from other institutions reporting.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

pnnl/MBDRL

Model-based Deep Reinforcement Learning for Real-time Grid Emergency Voltage Control. A model-based Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) framework where a deep neural network (DNN)-based surrogate model is utilized within the control policy learning framework, making the learning process faster and more sample efficient

Yin, Tim↗

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗

Managing the Transition from Ally to Adversary: Reflections on an Earlier Era of U.S.-Russian Relations

At the end of World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union transformed from allies into adversaries and the Cold War began—a grim confrontation that lasted nearly half a century. After the Cold War, the U.S.–Russian relationship was by no means an alliance, but was relatively cooperative until the past few years. Under Russian president Vladimir Putin, a new chill has descended, and today there is talk that we are entering another Cold War. This essay examines an earlier era in U.S.–Russian affairs, when presidents Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman managed America’s relationship with the Soviet Union, which essentially meant dealing with the Soviet premier, Joseph Stalin. The contents of that relationship—how it evolved, how it disintegrated, and how American leaders—reacted is the subject of this essay. Given the unsettled state of U.S.–Russian relations today and the many subplots that shape current policy, this paper makes no attempt to apply historical lessons to the management of contemporary problems; these are left for the reader to infer. Rather, we examine an earlier, though not necessarily simpler, era in which the U.S.– Russian relationship underwent dramatic change.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources and Its Activities Final Technical Report

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Board on Earth Sciences and Resources (BESR) is the locus for earth science activities, including critical aspects of energy science, for the institution and provides independent, unbiased, scientific and engineering advice to the nation on a broad range of earth science issues and in response to requests and needs expressed by Congress, federal and state agencies, the science community, the private sector, and others. The core level support provided by the Department of Energy’s Basic Energy Sciences was essential to allow BESR to maintain its service to the nation as a privileged interface between the government and the earth science community and to support scientific and engineering advances related to earth sciences and engineering, including basic energy science. This technical report outlines the volunteer board membership, primary activities, products, impacts, and work in development by the Board during the award period. Primarily, the Board served as a forum for advancing the understanding and communication of earth sciences and resource topics related to the geosciences and energy resource engineering and science; developed and oversaw a range of consensus studies, workshops, and other convening activities related to the earth sciences; over saw the Board’s five standing committees; and continued to develop a communication and outreach approach to provide information to federal and state government, the private sector, academia, non-governmental organizations, and the public to support policy and decision making.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Assessing the Wind Energy Potential in Bangladesh: Enabling Wind Energy Development with Data Products

USAID Bangladesh and the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory partnered with the Government of Bangladesh to develop a national wind resource assessment. The assessment used sophisticated resource modeling that was validated by a ground measurement campaign. Results from the project included a long-term, correlated wind data set; validated high-resolution wind resource maps; and publicly available data accessible through the RE Data Explorer (https://www.re-explorer.org/). The Renewable Energy (RE) Data Explorer allows users to access and download the Bangladesh wind resource assessment data and related geographic information system (GIS) data sets and perform customized technical potential analyses. Figure ES-1 is an example wind resource map for Bangladesh that can be created with the RE Data Explorer. This project improved upon existing global data sets by using best-in-class modeling techniques and analysis. Global models are good first steps in predicting wind resources in various parts of the world, but they do not generate the accuracy needed to reduce project risk and stimulate renewable investment. This project improved the quality of modeled wind resource data for Bangladesh. In addition to the modeling effort, the project team used a multi-year, local data-collection campaign to validate the model and further improve the accuracy of the data sets. The measurement campaign consisted of nine meteorological sites representing all geographical regions of the country. Seven meteorological towers and one remote-sensing, sonic detection and ranging unit (deployed at two sites) collected the data. Site-selection criteria focused on geographic diversity and proximity to existing transmission lines. Figure ES-1 shows measurement locations. The measurement campaign spanned June 2014 through December 2017. The results of the Bangladesh wind resource assessment will help Bangladesh overcome significant energy challenges. Its energy sector suffers from power shortages, increasing demand, decreasing domestic natural gas reserves, and inadequate transmission infrastructure. As part of a comprehensive plan to overcome these challenges, Bangladesh has committed that 10% of the total generation capacity will be renewable energy by 2021 (Power Division 2016). High-quality renewable energy resource data and other GIS data, such as those developed in this assessment, are important if Bangladesh wishes to reach its 10% renewable energy capacity target. These data support informed decision making, ranging from policy and investment decisions to reliable power sector planning. Specifically, the Bangladesh wind resource assessment will help reduce technical risk and encourage private-sector interest in the nascent wind market in Bangladesh. In addition, the Government of Bangladesh may use the results of the wind resource assessment to develop well-designed policies that could encourage investment in wind energy. This report provides a comprehensive description of the Bangladesh wind resource assessment, including details on the modeling approach and methods, instrumentation, data quality-control techniques, and resulting data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Examining Nuisance Aerosol Detections in Light of the Origin of the Screening Process (November 2021)

The evolution of philosophy and computations in the International Data Center (IDC) related to aerosol samples have had profound impacts on the number of recorded detections in the network since routine operations began in 2000. Key decisions from policymakers have been the list of triggering radionuclides, the scheme for categorizing these into interest levels 1-5, and an algorithm for determining when an anthropogenic isotope is seen so often that it is no longer interesting, known as the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). These are described in the Operations Manual of the IDC. Key parameters that are controlled by the IDC but for which the IDC receives occasional input from policymakers include the constants in EWMA and the peak significance threshold for individual gamma rays, the latter of which directly leads to determination of the presence or absence of a radionuclide in a sample. There are also changes in computations which the IDC makes and informs policy makers about, such as changes in how background is computed, which could also affect the ease of detecting a peak – real or false. Rather than focus on the quantitative changes due to computation changes, this work records some thinking on how isotopes and peak significance levels were chosen, and the resulting detections seen over 18 years during the buildup of the International Monitoring System (IMS). These detections are considered on a global scale to try to determine the relative impact on monitoring, and in some cases, the nature of their existence. Repeated detections of 131I and 133I are the most troublesome, but they are not so frequent to be a major problem for the Verification Regime. These detections could probably be handled adequately using scientific methods currently under development for xenon backgrounds. It is also somewhat problematic that top-level analysis of aerosol backgrounds has not been reported previous to this. The steep increase in the rate of detections after 2016 are a concern, either in the actual backgrounds or from changes in the calculations methods used to generate the Reviewed Radionuclide Report (RRR.) Final conclusions of the authors are that the computational stability of the RRR is very important. With computational stability, changes can be usefully analyzed as being due to changes in radioactivity in Earth’s atmosphere This report is a distillation into text of a talk given in the Radionuclide Experts Group (RNEG) in Vienna during Working Group B (WGB) in February of 2019. This report does not directly contain any IDC data, only summaries by year, or by isotope, or by location. No specific IDC detection by time, location, or isotope is included.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Results of Re-evaluation of FEPs Related to Higher Fissile Content in HLW Glass at SRS

One of the objectives of the United States Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition is to better understand the technical bases, risks, and uncertainties associated with the safe and secure disposition of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. Domestic defense and research activities have generated a few thousand metric tons of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste, much of which has been or will be processed and vitrified into high-level waste glass. The Nuclear Waste Policy Act 1982 makes the Department of Energy responsible for disposal of these materials.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Addressing Parental Vaccine Hesitancy and Other Barriers to Childhood/Adolescent Vaccination Uptake During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

Routine childhood immunizations are proven to be one of the most effective public health interventions at controlling numerous deadly diseases. Therefore, the CDC recommends routine immunizations for children and adolescent populations against vaccine-preventable diseases e.g., tetanus, pertussis, diphtheria, etc. This current review sought to examine barriers to pediatric vaccine uptake behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also explored the implications for parental vaccine hesitancy/delay during an ongoing health crisis and proposed recommendations for increasing vaccine confidence and compliance. Our review determined that the receipt for vaccinations steadily improved in the last decade for both the United States and Tennessee. However, this incremental progress has been forestalled by the COVID-19 pandemic and other barriers i.e. parental vaccine hesitancy, social determinants of health (SDoH) inequalities, etc. which further exacerbate vaccination disparities. Moreover, non-compliance to routine vaccinations could cause an outbreak of diseases, thereby, worsening the ongoing health crisis and already strained health care system. Healthcare providers are uniquely positioned to offer effective recommendations with presumptive languaging to increase vaccination rates, as well as, address parental vaccine hesitancy. Best practices that incorporate healthcare providers’ quality improvement coaching, vaccination reminder recall systems, adherence to standardized safety protocols (physical distancing, hand hygiene practices, etc.), as well as, offer telehealth and outdoor/drive-through/curbside vaccination services, etc. are warranted. Additionally, a concerted effort should be made to utilize public health surveillance systems to collect, analyze, and interpret data, thereby, ensuring the dissemination of timely, accurate health information for effective health policy decision-making e.g., vaccine distribution, etc.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1°C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2°C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3°C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23°C(±0.12°C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Deep Space Network: An instrument for radio astronomy research

The NASA Deep Space Network operates and maintains the Earth-based two-way communications link for unmanned spacecraft exploring the solar system. It is NASA's policy to also make the Network's facilities available for radio astronomy observations. The Network's microwave communication systems and facilities are being continually upgraded. This revised document, first published in 1982, describes the Network's current radio astronomy capabilities and future capabilities that will be made available by the ongoing Network upgrade. The Bibliography, which includes published papers and articles resulting from radio astronomy observations conducted with Network facilities, has been updated to include papers to May 1987.

Renzetti, N. A.↗

Advancement in LIDAR Data Collection: NASA's Experimental Airborne Advanced Research LIDAR

The NASA Experimental Airborne Advanced Research LIDAR (EAARL) is a new developmental LIDAR designed to investigate and advance LIDAR techniques using a adaptive time resolved backscatter information for complex coastal research and monitoring applications. Information derived from such an advanced LIDAR system can potentially improve the ability of resource managers and policy makers to make better informed decisions. While there has been a large amount of research using LIDAR in coastal areas, most are limited in the amount of information captured from each laser pulse. The unique design of the EAARL instrument permits simultaneous acquisition of coastal environments which include subaerial bare earth topography, vegetation biomass, and bare earth beneath vegetated areas.

Riordan, Kevin↗