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At least 217 records · Page 12

A linearized theory method of constrained optimization for supersonic cruise wing design

A linearized theory wing design and optimization procedure which allows physical realism and practical considerations to be imposed as constraints on the optimum (least drag due to lift) solution is discussed and examples of application are presented. In addition to the usual constraints on lift and pitching moment, constraints are imposed on wing surface ordinates and wing upper surface pressure levels and gradients. The design procedure also provides the capability of including directly in the optimization process the effects of other aircraft components such as a fuselage, canards, and nacelles.

Miller, D. S.↗

Exploration of a Potential DOOR Endpoint for Hospital-acquired Bacterial Pneumonia and Ventilator-associated Bacterial Pneumonia Using Six Registrational Trials for Antibacterial Drugs

Abstract Background Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is an innovative approach to clinical trial design and analysis that uses an ordinal ranking system to incorporate the overall risks and benefits of a therapeutic intervention into a single measurement. Here we derived and evaluated a disease-specific DOOR endpoint for registrational trials for hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP). Methods Through comprehensive examination of data from nearly 4000 participants enrolled in six registrational trials for HABP/VABP submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between 2005 and 2022, we derived and applied a HABP/VABP specific endpoint. We estimated the probability that a participant assigned to the study treatment arm would have a more favorable overall DOOR or component outcome than a participant assigned to comparator. Results DOOR distributions between treatment arms were similar in all trials. DOOR probability estimates ranged from 48.3% to 52.9% and were not statistically different. There were no significant differences between treatment arms in the component analyses. Although infectious complications and serious adverse events occurred more frequently in ventilated participants compared to non-ventilated participants, the types of events were similar. Conclusions Through a data-driven approach, we constructed and applied a potential DOOR endpoint for HABP/VABP trials. The inclusion of syndrome-specific events may help to better delineate and evaluate participant experiences and outcomes in future HABP/VABP trials and could help inform data collection and trial design.

Immunology↗

“Just Do It” Mission Operations Training in a COVID World

“No”- “not”- “can’t do it” – these words don’t fly in M2020 Mission Operations. The M2020 Surface Mission Operations Team trained for landing the Perseverance Rover under COVID-19 remote work/mandatory stay-at-home conditions. Training activities included presenting Flight Schools to the team via video conferencing, training COVID personal safety requirements to on-premises staff, and constantly updating and communicating COVID restrictions to the team as safety requirements changed. This paper explores the impact of COVID on the Mission System Training for M2020 Mission Operations. The layers of COVID, aptly named the “COVID Tax” by team management, affected project roles, communications, personnel interactions, operations facility usage and training exercises practiced by the team. Flight Schools and Operational Readiness Tests (ORTs) are driving forces behind the surface mission operations training. These activities work hand-in-hand to prepare the team for landing day, surface operations that transition from cruise to nominal operations, and nominal operations. Under normal training conditions, Flight Schools and ORTs are only concerned with tactical operations for the Uplink (Command) Downlink (Analysis) and Campaign Implementation (Planning) Teams of scientists and system engineers. Due to COVID, and the necessity to maintain physical distance between people, training for the landing team needed to include the new category of COVID personal safety. COVID also necessitated remote teams and video conferencing of the entirety of Flight Schools. This reliance on distance learning had not been done on previous missions. We will explore the advantages and disadvantages of video conferencing as a training platform; training effectiveness in communicating and practicing the multiple changes to the COVID safety protocols; and the timing in which we received and responded to COVID directives. Additionally, this paper will review the practical measures taken by the on-premises team and how the team adapted during the readiness tests, landing, and early mission operations, as well as how the team responded to the post-vaccine ramping down of COVID Protocols. The M2020 Surface Mission Operations Team responded very well to the challenges of COVID. All pre-landing operational and COVID-related training was completed. Post-landing COVID Training was provided as needed to new on-premises personnel. Training presented on COVID for the first operational readiness test (ORT) consisted of 2.5 hours of training. Each ORT had COVID Training. A person who had participated in all of the ORTs from September 2020 – February 2021 would have received over 7 hours of COVID Training. By ORT-12 (approximately 8 weeks after the first ORT), the Training team consolidated the original COVID training to a one-hour COVID Basic Training course, with additional recommended training. The Basic training course was updated after landing, as vaccines became available. COVID Training had multiple Flight Schools in the self-directed Blackboard Learning system, as well as a Quick Reference Wiki for Onboarding of new on-premises personnel and keeping on-premises personnel up-to-date. COVID Training covered many topics including practical methods of 6-foot distancing, how to interact with an IT professional when help was needed at a workstation, and challenging indoor meal-eating protocols. COVID Training continued to be updated, as the lab and the project respond to the virus variants and federal, state and local ordinances.

Rosette, Theresa↗

Comparative accuracy of the Albedo, transmission and absorption for selected radiative transfer approximations

Illustrations of both the relative and absolute accuracy of eight different radiative transfer approximations as a function of optical thickness, solar zenith angle and single scattering albedo are given. Computational results for the plane albedo, total transmission and fractional absorption were obtained for plane-parallel atmospheres composed of cloud particles. These computations, which were obtained using the doubling method, are compared with comparable results obtained using selected radiative transfer approximations. Comparisons were made between asymptotic theory for thick layers and the following widely used two stream approximations: Coakley-Chylek's models 1 and 2, Meador-Weaver, Eddington, delta-Eddington, PIFM and delta-discrete ordinates.

King, M. D.↗

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

Capturing Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High‑Risk Instability During Approach

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

A short note on the accuracy of the discontinuous Galerkin method with reentrant faces

In this work, we study the convergence of the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method applied to the advection–reaction equation on meshes with reentrant faces. On such meshes, the upwind numerical flux is not smooth, and so the numerical integration of the resulting face terms can only be expected to be first-order accurate. Despite this inexact integration, we prove that the DG method converges with order $\mathscr{O}$(h p+1/2 ), which is the same rate as in the case of exact integration. Consequently, specialized quadrature rules that accurately integrate the non-smooth numerical fluxes are not required for high-order accuracy. These results are numerically corroborated on examples of linear advection and discrete ordinates transport equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Determination of mean camber surfaces for wings having uniform chordwise loading and arbitrary spanwise loading in subsonic flow

The field of a uniformly loaded wing in subsonic flow is discussed in terms of the acceleration potential. It is shown that, for the design of such wings, the slope of the mean camber surface at any point can be determined by a line integration around the wing boundary. By an additional line integration around the wing boundary, this method is extended to include the case where the local section lift coefficient varies with spanwise location (the chordwise loading at every section still remaining uniform). For the uniformly loaded wing of polygonal plan form, the integrations necessary to determine the local slope of the surface and the further integration of the slopes to determine the ordinate can be done analytically. An outline of these integrations and the resulting formulas are included. Calculated results are given for a sweptback wing with uniform chordwise loading and a highly tapered spanwise loading, a uniformly loaded delta wing, a uniformly loaded sweptback wing, and the same sweptback wing with uniform chordwise loading but elliptical span load distribution.

Katzoff, S↗

Accuracy of RT Code SORD for Realistic Atmospheric Profiles

We discuss accuracy of our recently developed RT code SORD using 2 benchmark scenarios published by the IPRT group in 2015. These scenarios define atmospheres with a complicate dependence of scattering and absorption properties over height (profile). Equal step, dh=1km, is assumed in the profiles. We developed subroutines that split such atmospheres into layers of the same optical thickness, d tau. We provide full text of the subroutines with comments in Appendix. The d tau is a step for vertical integration in the method of successive orders. Modification of the input profiles from "equal step over h" to "equal step over tau" changes input for RT simulations. This may cause errors at or above the acceptable level of the measurement uncertainty. We show errors of the RT code SORD for both intensity and polarization. In addition to that, using our discrete ordinates RT code IPOL, we discuss one more IPRT scenario, in which changes in height profile indeed cause unacceptable errors. Clear understanding of source and magnitude of these errors is important, e.g. for the AERONET retrieval algorithm. SORD is available from ftp://maiac.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/skorkin/SORD_IP_16B/ or by email request from the first author.

polarization↗

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Research in solar physics: Some techniques for analyzing data from the ultraviolet spectrometer and polarimeter

Useful information for certain aspects of the analysis of data obtained by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter (UVSP) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) are contained. The meaning of the UVSPCO-ordinate system and the SMM roll, pitch, and yaw are described and the process for overlaying UVSP images is explained. The various computer programs that calculate the line of sight component of the SMM spacecraft velocity from the spacecraft to the Sun is described. The spacecraft velocity is used to correct or interpret the signal observed in USVP dopplergrams. A method of using the spacecraft velocity to calibrate UVSP dopplergrams and magnetograms, i.e., determine the width of the observed emission line is applied. The UVSP polarization analysis procedures are described and the expressions for the statistical uncertainties in various quantities obtained from UVSP measurements are given.

Henze, W., Jr.↗

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Photoelectrons in the upper atmosphere - A formulation incorporating effects of transport

A technique for solving the problem of photoelectron spatial transport and spectral degradation is presented. The developed model, which allows for a relatively complete description of the relevant transport and collisional physics, can be applied to study processes at either low or high altitude, and may be used to investigate interhemispheric transport. The technique involves dividing the spatial dimension into a set of discrete ordinates and calculating the photoelectron intensity for a specific energy at each point in space and at a set of angle points. The selected range of the energy spectrum was covered completely by a set of energy bins, and the photoelectron intensity in the highest energy bin was calculated first by assuming that the only source term was derived from photoionization. The method is similar to a method used in radiative transfer theory. Spatial and angular redistribution of electrons play a dominant role at heights above 400 km.

Prather, M. J.↗

Gamma-Weighted Discrete Ordinate Two-Stream Approximation for Computation of Domain Averaged Solar Irradiance

An algorithm is developed for the gamma-weighted discrete ordinate two-stream approximation that computes profiles of domain-averaged shortwave irradiances for horizontally inhomogeneous cloudy atmospheres. The algorithm assumes that frequency distributions of cloud optical depth at unresolved scales can be represented by a gamma distribution though it neglects net horizontal transport of radiation. This algorithm is an alternative to the one used in earlier studies that adopted the adding method. At present, only overcast cloudy layers are permitted.

Kato, S.↗

Evaluation of Attila and MCNP computational methods for dose and exposure estimation

Radiation transport calculations are often used to estimate dose or exposure to components and personnel surrounding a radiation source. The sources for these calculations are decaying radionuclides within various nuclear materials. Historically, dose calculations use MCNP (Monte Carlo N-Particle) transport code as the primary particle transport tool without a secondary computational tool to validate the results from the MCNP simulations [1]. The goal of this study is to make an independent check of the Monte Carlo solution from MCNP6 Version 6.2.1 with the discrete ordinates solution from Attila 10.2.0 Beta 3. As an example problem for this study, water-filled, stainless-steel vessels, modeled with an unstructured mesh (UM) with both MCNP and Attila [2], are exposed to 252Cf and 60Co point sources. This report also includes a discussion of the limitations of unstructured mesh in a MCNP calculation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Invariance of Hypersonic Normal Force Coefficients with Reynolds Number and Determination of Inviscid Wave Drag from Laminar Experimental Results

Observations have been made and reported that the experimental normal force coefficients at a constant angle of attack were constant with a variation of more than 2 orders of magnitude of Reynolds number at a free-stream Mach number M(sub infinity) of 8.00 and more than 1 order of magnitude variation at M(sub infinity) = 6.00 on the same body-wing hypersonic cruise configuration. These data were recorded under laminar, transitional, and turbulent boundary layer conditions with both hot-wall and cold-wall models. This report presents experimental data on 25 configurations of 17 models of both simple and complex geometry taken at M(sub infinity) = 6.00, 6.86, and 8.00 in 4 different hypersonic facilities. Aerodynamic calculations were made by computational fluid dynamics (CID) and engineering methods to analyze these data. The conclusions were that the normal force coefficients at a given altitude are constant with Reynolds numbers at hypersonic speeds and that the axial force coefficients recorded under laminar boundary-layer conditions at several Reynolds numbers may be plotted against the laminar parameter (the reciprocal of the Reynolds number to the one-half power) and extrapolated to the ordinate axis to determine the inviscid-wave-drag coefficient at the intercept.

Hawkins, Richard↗

Diffusion Synthetic Acceleration for Heterogeneous Domains, Compatible with Voids

A standard approach to solving the S N transport equations is to use source iteration with diffusion synthetic acceleration (DSA). Although this approach is widely used and effective on many problems, there remain some practical issues with DSA preconditioning, particularly on highly heterogeneous domains. For large-scale parallel simulation, it is critical that both (a) preconditioned source iteration converges rapidly and (b) the action of the DSA preconditioner can be applied using fast, scalable solvers, such as algebraic multigrid (AMG). For heterogeneous domains, these two interests can be at odds. In particular, there exist DSA diffusion discretizations that can be solved rapidly using AMG, but they do not always yield robust/fast convergence of the larger source iteration. Conversely, there exist robust DSA discretizations where source iteration converges rapidly on difficult heterogeneous problems, but fast parallel solvers like AMG tend to struggle applying the action of such operators. Moreover, very few current methods for the solution of deterministic transport are compatible with voids. This paper develops a new heterogeneous DSA preconditioner based on only preconditioning the optically thick subdomains. The resulting method proves robust on a variety of heterogeneous transport problems, including a linearized hohlraum mesh related to inertial confinement fusion. Moreover, the action of the preconditioner is easily computed using O(1) AMG iterations, convergence of the transport iteration typically requires 2 to 5× fewer iterations than current state-of-the-art “full” DSA, and the proposed method is trivially compatible with voids. On the hohlraum problem, rapid convergence is obtained by preconditioning less than 3% of the mesh elements with five to ten AMG iterations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗