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At least 217 records · Page 12

Dispersion-enhanced sequential batch sampling for adaptive contour estimation

In computer simulation and optimal design, sequential batch sampling offers an appealing way to iteratively stipulate optimal sampling points based upon existing selections and efficiently construct surrogate modeling. Nonetheless, the issue of near duplicates poses tremendous quandary for sequential learning. It refers to the situation that selected critical points cluster together in each sampling batch, which are individually but not collectively informative towards the optimal design. Near duplicates severely diminish the computational efficiency as they barely contribute extra information towards update of the surrogate. To address this issue, we impose a dispersion criterion on concurrent selection of sampling points, which essentially forces a sparse distribution of critical points in each batch, and demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in adaptive contour estimation. Specifically, we adopt Gaussian process surrogate to emulate the simulator, acquire variance reduction of the critical region from new sampling points as a dispersion criterion, and combine it with the modified expected improvement (EI) function for critical batch selection. The critical region here is the proximity of the contour of interest. This proposed approach is vindicated in numerical examples of a two-dimensional four-branch function, a four-dimensional function with a disjoint contour of interest and a time-delay dynamic system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimal operational controls for power grid

Power grid operation is facing increased penetration of renewables and distributed energy resources at both transmission and distribution levels. This presents an increased level of randomness and uncertainty for its operational quality, where the challenges are mainly how controls and optimizations can be performed so that the operational quality of the power grid can be maintained. An interesting feature is also that we need to make a good use of uncertainties embedded in the swing equation from the renewable contributions rather than simply trying to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Furthermore, this requires effective solutions on system estimation, control, and optimization. Indeed, in past decades, work has been carried out on the development of advanced controls and optimization for such complicated dynamic systems. Examples are optimal operational control for both performance and stability enhancement considering random renewables penetration, frequency, and active power control for microgrids and parameter estimation for various parts of the power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Turbulence-parameter estimation for current-energy converters using surrogate model optimization

Surrogate models maximize information utility by building predictive models in place of computational or experimentally expensive model runs. Marine hydrokinetic current energy converters require large-domain simulations to estimate array efficiencies and environmental impacts. Meso-scale models typically represent turbines as actuator discs that act as momentum sinks and sources of turbulence and its dissipation. An OpenFOAM model was developed where actuator disc k-ε turbulence was characterized using an approach developed for flows through vegetative canopies. Turbine-wake data from laboratory flume experiments collected at two influent turbulence intensities were used to calibrate parameters in the turbulence-source terms in the k-ε equations. Additionally, parameter influences on longitudinal wake profiles were estimated using Gaussian process regression with subsequent optimization minimizing the objective function within 3.1% of those obtained using the full model representation, but for 74% of the computational cost (far fewer model runs). This framework facilitates more efficient parameterization of the turbulence-source equations using turbine-wake data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

String instability mitigation of adaptive cruise control without modifying control laws: trajectory shaper and parameter estimation

Vehicle automation technologies equip vehicles with adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems, which relieve driving fatigue. However, recent studies have shown that the current ACC systems are string-unstable (i.e., exacerbate traffic congestion). To achieve string stability, most existing studies directly modify the control algorithms of ACC systems. Alternatively, this study proposes a trajectory shaper (TS)-based method, which only modifies the trajectory information of the predecessor vehicle, so that the ego vehicle driven by a string-unstable ACC system leverages the modified trajectory information to achieve string stability. To devise the TS-based method, an offline-online parameter estimation method integrating batch optimization and an extended Kalman filter is applied to estimate the parameters of an ACC system. The proposed TS-based method is cost-effective during implementation, as it avoids modifying existing ACC control algorithms (which entails a complex analysis of control systems and parameter tuning). In conclusion, the effectiveness of the proposed TS-based method is validated through extensive numerical experiments.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Power system restoration incorporating diverse distributed energy resources

An example system includes an aggregator configured to receive a service collaboration request and iteratively determine, based on minimum and maximum power values for DERs under its management, an optimized operation schedule. The aggregator may also be configured to iteratively determine, based on the optimized operation schedule, an estimated flexibility range for devices under its management and output an indication thereof. The system may also include a power management unit (PMU) configured to iteratively receive the indication and determine, based on a network model that includes the estimated flexibility range, a reconfiguration plan and an overall optimized operation schedule for the network. The PMU may also be configured to iteratively cause reconfiguration of the network based on the plan. The PMU and aggregator may also be configured to iteratively, at a fast timescale, cause energy resources under their management to modify operation based on the overall optimized operation schedule.

Ding, Fei↗

Solving Large‐Scale Linear Systems of Equations by a Quantum Hybrid Algorithm

Abstract Today's intermediate‐scale quantum computers, although imperfect, already perform computational tasks that are manifestly beyond the capabilities of modern classical supercomputers. However, so far, quantum‐enabled large‐scale solutions have been realized only for limited set of problems. Here a hybrid algorithm based on phase estimation and classical optimization of the circuit width and depth is employed for solving a specific class of large linear systems of equations ubiquitous to many areas of science and engineering. A classification of linear systems based on the entanglement properties of the associated phase‐estimation unitary operation is introduced, enabling a highly efficient search for solutions that is facilitated by a straightforward matrix‐to‐circuit map. A 2 17 ‐dimensional problem is implemented on several IBM quantum computer superconducting quantum processors, a record‐breaking result for a linear system solved by a quantum computer. Demonstrated realisation sets a clear benchmark in the quest for the future quantum speedup in the linear systems of equations solution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Optimal 1D Ly α forest power spectrum estimation – III. DESI early data

ABSTRACT The 1D power spectrum P1D of the Ly α forest provides important information about cosmological and astrophysical parameters, including constraints on warm dark matter models, the sum of the masses of the three neutrino species, and the thermal state of the intergalactic medium. We present the first measurement of P1D with the quadratic maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey early data sample. This early sample of 54 600 quasars is already comparable in size to the largest previous studies, and we conduct a thorough investigation of numerous instrumental and analysis systematic errors to evaluate their impact on DESI data with QMLE. We demonstrate the excellent performance of the spectroscopic pipeline noise estimation and the impressive accuracy of the spectrograph resolution matrix with 2D image simulations of raw DESI images that we processed with the DESI spectroscopic pipeline. We also study metal line contamination and noise calibration systematics with quasar spectra on the red side of the Ly α emission line. In a companion paper, we present a similar analysis based on the Fast Fourier Transform estimate of the power spectrum. We conclude with a comparison of these two approaches and discuss the key sources of systematic error that we need to address with the upcoming DESI Year 1 analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Efficient Numerical Algorithm for Solving Data Driven Feedback Control Problems

The goal of this paper is to solve a class of stochastic optimal control problems numerically, in which the state process is governed by an Itô type stochastic differential equation with control process entering both in the drift and the diffusion, and is observed partially. The optimal control of feedback form is determined based on the available observational data. In this work, we call this type of control problems the data driven feedback control. The computational framework that we introduce to solve such type of problems aims to find the best estimate for the optimal control as a conditional expectation given the observational information. To make our method feasible in providing timely feedback to the controlled system from data, we develop an efficient stochastic optimization algorithm to implement our computational framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Explainable Machine-Learning Model for Compensatory Reserve Measurement: Methods for Feature Selection and the Effects of Subject Variability

Tracking vital signs accurately is critical for triaging a patient and ensuring timely therapeutic intervention. The patient’s status is often clouded by compensatory mechanisms that can mask injury severity. The compensatory reserve measurement (CRM) is a triaging tool derived from an arterial waveform that has been shown to allow for earlier detection of hemorrhagic shock. However, the deep-learning artificial neural networks developed for its estimation do not explain how specific arterial waveform elements lead to predicting CRM due to the large number of parameters needed to tune these models. Alternatively, we investigate how classical machine-learning models driven by specific features extracted from the arterial waveform can be used to estimate CRM. More than 50 features were extracted from human arterial blood pressure data sets collected during simulated hypovolemic shock resulting from exposure to progressive levels of lower body negative pressure. A bagged decision tree design using the ten most significant features was selected as optimal for CRM estimation. This resulted in an average root mean squared error in all test data of 0.171, similar to the error for a deep-learning CRM algorithm at 0.159. By separating the dataset into sub-groups based on the severity of simulated hypovolemic shock withstood, large subject variability was observed, and the key features identified for these sub-groups differed. This methodology could allow for the identification of unique features and machine-learning models to differentiate individuals with good compensatory mechanisms against hypovolemia from those that might be poor compensators, leading to improved triage of trauma patients and ultimately enhancing military and emergency medicine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spatio-temporal Estimates of Disease Transmission Parameters for COVID-19 with a Fully-Coupled, County-Level Model of the United States

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a capability to estimate parameters of epidemiological models from case reporting data to support responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. A differentiating feature of this work is the ability to simultaneously estimate county-specific disease transmission parameters in a nation-wide model that considers mobility between counties. The approach is focused on estimating parameters in a stochastic SEIR model that considers mobility between model patches (i.e., counties) as well as additional infectious compartments. The inference engine developed by Sandia includes (1) reconstruction and (2) transmission parameter inference. Reconstruction involves estimating current population counts within each of the compartments in a modified SEIR model from reported case data. Reconstruction produces input for the inference formulations, and it provides initial conditions that can be used in other modeling and planning efforts. Inference involves the solution of a large-scale optimization problem to estimate the time profiles for the transmission parameters in each county. These provide quantification of changes in the transmission parameter over time (e.g., due to impact of intervention strategies). This capability has been implemented in a Python-based software package, epi_inference, that makes extensive use of Pyomo [5] and IPOPT [10] to formulate and solve the inference formulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Connecting Material Properties and Redox Flow Cell Cycling Performance through Zero-Dimensional Models

Improvements in redox flow battery (RFB) performance and durability can be achieved through the development of new active materials, electrolytes, and membranes. While a rich design space exists for emerging materials, complex tradeoffs challenge the articulation of unambiguous target criteria, as the relationships between component selection and cycling performance are multifaceted. Here, we derive zero-dimensional, analytical expressions for mass balances and cell voltages under galvanostatic cycling, enabling direct connections between material/electrolyte properties, cell operating conditions, and resulting performance metrics (e.g., energy efficiency, capacity fade). To demonstrate the utility of this modeling framework, we highlight several considerations for RFB design, including upper bound estimation, active species decay, and membrane/separator conductivity-selectivity tradeoffs. Furthermore, we also discuss modalities for extending this framework to incorporate kinetic losses, distributed ohmic losses, and multiple spatial domains. Importantly, because the mass balances are solved analytically, hundreds of cycles can be simulated in seconds, potentially facilitating detailed parametric sweeps, system optimization, and parameter estimation from cycling experiments. More broadly, this approach provides a means for assessing the impact of cell components that simultaneously influence multiple performance-defining processes, aiding in the elucidation of key descriptors and the identification of favorable materials combinations for specific applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Sparse regression for plasma physics

Many scientific problems can be formulated as sparse regression, i.e., regression onto a set of parameters when there is a desire or expectation that some of the parameters are exactly zero or do not substantially contribute. This includes many problems in signal and image processing, system identification, optimization, and parameter estimation methods such as Gaussian process regression. Sparsity facilitates exploring high-dimensional spaces while finding parsimonious and interpretable solutions. In the present work, we illustrate some of the important ways in which sparse regression appears in plasma physics and point out recent contributions and remaining challenges to solving these problems in this field. Further, a brief review is provided for the optimization problem and the state-of-the-art solvers, especially for constrained and high-dimensional sparse regression.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Apparatus and method for optimizing quantifiable behavior in configurable devices and systems

An apparatus and method are provided to perform constrained optimization of a constrained property of an apparatus, which is complex due to having several components, and these components are configurable in real-time. The optimization is achieved by detecting values of the constrained property and a plurality of other properties of the apparatus when the apparatus is configured in a first subset of the plurality of configurations. A model is learned using the detected values of the constrained property. The model represents the constrained property and can also represent other properties as a function of the configurations. The model can also include estimated uncertainties of the constrained property in the model. Then, using the d model and the estimated uncertainties, the optimal configuration can be selected to minimize an error value (e.g., the difference between a desired value and an observed value of the at least one constrained property).

Hoffmann, Henry↗

SMART-COM – Scalable Multi-Agent Adaptive Resolution Tools for Collaborative Outage Management

The purpose of this grant was to conduct scientific research and prototype applications to support NPP outage staff in their adaptive decision-making in efficient scheduling and resource allocation while preventing violation of safety technical specifications. The project contributed to scientific knowledge and engineering methods in (1) user interface design, (2) scheduling optimization and risk estimation, and (2) natural language processing that would benefit the nuclear power plants in minimizing schedule overruns and even unexpected shutdowns. The research team conducted site visits at a test reactor facility and an operating nuclear power plant to gather necessary information and inputs for research and development of a software application to support NPP staff in executing their outages. The final software application consisted of three modules. First, the natural language processing module supports interactive processing of technical documentation to build a database for outage staff to query non-permissible actions on system components. This module can alleviate outage staff from reviewing extensive documentation and minimize violation of technical specifications, especially in time-sensitive situations. Second, the schedule optimization module schedules outage activities and compute risk indices that outperform existing software and current practice. This module can reduce completion time of an outage that typically have too many activities for human to optimize based on current practice that does not apply the latest operations research. Finally, the visualization module presents progress and risk information of the overall outage and individual activities, as well as enabling access to the natural language processing and schedule optimization modules. This module can provide outage staff with situation awareness that are necessary to make risk-informed decisions in response to unexpected events during the execution of an outage.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Physics-preserving enriched Galerkin method for a fully-coupled thermo-poroelasticity model

This paper proposes a new numerical method for a fully-coupled, quasi-static thermo-poroelasticity model in a unified enriched Galerkin (EG) method framework. In our method, the mechanics sub-problem is solved using a locking-free EG method, and the flow and heat sub-problems are solved using a locally-conservative EG method. The proposed method offers mass and energy conservation properties with much lower costs than other methods with the same properties, including discontinuous Galerkin methods and mixed finite element methods. The well-posedness and optimal a priori error estimates are carefully derived. Here, several numerical tests confirm the theoretical optimal convergence rates and the mass and energy conservation properties of the new method.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Field demonstration and implementation analysis of model predictive control in an office HVAC system

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a promising technique to address growing needs for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems to operate more efficiently and with greater flexibility. However, due to a number of factors, including the required implementation expertise, lack of high quality data, and a risk-adverse industry, MPC has yet to gain widespread adoption. While many previous studies have shown the advantages of MPC, few analyzed the implementation effort and associated practical challenges. In addition, previous work has developed an open-source, Modelica-based tool-chain that automatically generates optimal control, parameter estimation, and state estimation problems aimed at facilitating MPC implementation. Therefore, this study demonstrates usage of this tool-chain to implement MPC in a real office building, discusses practical challenges of implementing MPC, and estimates the implementation effort associated with various tasks in order to inform the development of future workflows and serve as an initial benchmark for their impact on reducing implementation effort. This study finds that the implemented MPC saves approximately 40% of HVAC energy over the existing control during a two-month trial period and that tasks related to data collection and controller deployment activities can each require as much effort as model generation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗