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At least 217 records · Page 12

Bayesian D‐Optimal Designs for Gaussian Process Surrogate Models

Computer experiments often employ space-filling strategies to create surrogate models with strong predictive performance. The impact of model parameter estimation for Gaussian process surrogates, however, is often overlooked. Obtaining a better initial estimate of the covariance lengthscale parameter, θ, can greatly improve the resulting Gaussian process fit through more effective sequential acquisitions during active learning. In this work, we propose a novel initial design maximizing the Bayesian D-optimality criterion of the Gaussian process lengthscale parameter. Previously published results have shown the emphasis on lengthscale estimation to be promising, but relied on an empirically driven design creation process. Our Bayesian D-optimal designs are rooted in information theory and lead to more informative sequential acquisitions by improving lengthscale estimation. In many cases, these gains eventually result in better surrogates than those seeded with space-filling initial designs. Furthermore, Bayesian D-optimal designs can be tailored to either isotropic or anisotropic covariance structures, and the Bayesian framework enables the inclusion of prior knowledge in the design process, offering greater flexibility and adaptability. Through several simulation studies, we demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian D-optimal designs in terms of both lengthscale estimation accuracy and predictive performance during active learning.

Bayesian experimental design↗

Clear-sky detection for PV degradation analysis using multiple regression

A method is presented to detect clear-sky periods for plane-of-array irradiance time-averaged data that is based on the algorithm originally described by Reno and Hansen. Here we show this new method improves the state-of-the-art by providing accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. Moreover, our new method detects clear periods in plane-of-array data, which is novel. The new method is developed by applying a Design of Experiment approach to optimize the parameters used in the Reno method, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to understand the robustness of the found parameters. Clear-sky detection accuracy is compared among four methods: the Reno method, the default clear-sky filter in RdTools, the Ellis method, and the method outlined in this work, using a hand-labeled two-year data set of 1-min plane-of-array irradiance for a fixed tilt system. The RdTools clear-sky filter is marred by excessive false positives. The other methods all perform well at 1-min data intervals; the method developed here provides more accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. We show that the parameters are directly linked to the data frequency in the hope that these input variables may not have to be optimized for every data frequency and location. However, only a single fixed system in one location was carefully examined. Finally, we illustrate how accurate determination of clear-sky conditions helps to eliminate data noise and bias in the assessment of long-term performance of PV plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Application of Modern Design of Experiments to CARS Thermometry in a Model Scramjet Engine

We have applied formal experiment design and analysis to optimize the measurement of temperature in a supersonic combustor at NASA Langley Research Center. We used the coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) technique to map the temperature distribution in the flowfield downstream of an 1160 K, Mach 2 freestream into which supersonic hydrogen fuel is injected at an angle of 30 degrees. CARS thermometry is inherently a single-point measurement technique; it was used to map thc flow by translating the measurement volume through the flowfield. The method known as "Modern Design of Experiments" (MDOE) was used to estimate the data volume required, design the test matrix, perform the experiment and analyze the resulting data. MDOE allowed us to match the volume of data acquired to the precision requirements of the customer. Furthermore, one aspect of MDOE, known as response surface methodology, allowed us to develop precise maps of the flowfield temperature, allowing interpolation between measurement points. An analytic function in two spatial variables was fit to the data from a single measurement plane. Fitting with a Cosine Series Bivariate Function allowed the mean temperature to be mapped with 95% confidence interval half-widths of +/- 30 Kelvin, comfortably meeting the confidence of +/- 50 Kelvin specified prior to performing the experiments. We estimate that applying MDOE to the present experiment saved a factor of 5 in data volume acquired, compared to experiments executed in the traditional manner. Furthermore, the precision requirements could have been met with less than half the data acquired.

Danehy, P. M.↗

A piloted simulation of the backup control system engagement for the YAH-64

A piloted simulator experiment, designed to evaluate and optimize certain backup control system (BUCS) engagement parameters and to provide pilot familiarization with aircraft response prior to flight test of the BUCS in the YAH-64 Advanced Attack Helicopter, is described. Key elements of the simulation were the representation of a control system jam, the pilot's breaking of a shear pin in the jammed control, and the resultant BUCS engagement. To minimize the excursions in aircraft motion which could result from the pilot's control inputs after shear pin breakage, the BUCS control function is blended in gradually. The experiment's results indicate that optimum time to full control authority after shear pin breakage is three seconds in all axes for certain critical tasks. Special pilot training in the recovery from a control system jam may be necessary to minimize unacceptably large aircraft transients in the off-axis.

Blanken, C. L.↗

Detailed design package for design of a video system providing optimal visual information for controlling payload and experiment operations with television

A detailed description of a video system for controlling space shuttle payloads and experiments is presented in the preliminary design review and critical design review, first and second engineering design reports respectively, and in the final report submitted jointly with the design package. The material contained in the four subsequent sections of the package contains system descriptions, design data, and specifications for the recommended 2-view system. Section 2 contains diagrams relating to the simulation test configuration of the 2-view system. Section 3 contains descriptions and drawings of the deliverable breadboard equipment. A description of the recommended system is contained in Section 4 with equipment specifications in Section 5.

Source record↗

Automating Bayesian inference and design to quantify acoustic particle levitation

Self-propulsion of micro- and nanoparticles powered by ultrasound provides an attractive strategy for the remote manipulation of colloidal matter using biocompatible energy inputs. Quantitative understanding of particle motion and its dependence on size, shape, and composition requires accurate characterization of the acoustic field, which depends sensitively on the experimental setup. Here, we show how automated experiments based on Bayesian inference and design can accurately and efficiently characterize the acoustic field within resonant chambers used to propel acoustic nanomotors. Repeated cycles of observation, inference, and design (OID) are guided by a physical model that describes the rate at which levitating particles approach the nodal plane. Using video microscopy, we observe the relaxation of tracer particles to this plane following the application of the acoustic field. We use sequential Monte Carlo methods to infer model parameters such as the amplitude and frequency of the resonant chamber while accounting for particle-level measurement noise and population-level heterogeneity in the field. Guided by simulated outcomes, we select the optimal design for the next experiment as to maximize the information gain in the relevant parameters. We show how this iterative process serves to discriminate between competing hypotheses and efficiently converges to accurate parameter estimates using only few automated experiments. We discuss the need for model criticism to ensure the validity of the guiding model throughout automated cycles of observation, inference, and design. Furthermore, this work demonstrates how Bayesian methods can learn the parameters of nonlinear, hierarchical models used to describe video microscopy data of active colloids.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Prediction of The TREAT Facility Power and Temperature of Sirius-2c Nuclear Propulsion Fuel Experiment

This paper presents simulation results of the Sirius-2c full power experiment that was performed at the TREAT facility to support experiment modeling and transient analysis of the NASA-sponsored Sirius series of experiments for nuclear thermal propulsion applications. We presents a novel approach to predict the control rod motion and power of the reactor and the temperature of the specimen during transient experiments using the Griffin and Bison packages of the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). First, the model predicts the transient rod motion that results in the desired reactor power shape. Then, the temperature of the specimen is predicted based on the power deposited in the specimen. The prediction results are in good agreement with the measured reactor power and control rod position and over-predicted the specimen temperature which is mainly related to specimen surface emissivities. The reactor reaches a peak power of 80 MW and a specimen temperature of 2500 K and considering the right specimen emissivities the predicted temperature is in an excellent agreement with the measured values. This model can be utilized in helping and supporting the design and optimization a new experiments that are going to be irradiated in the TREAT facility.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Developing a space-filling mixture experiment design when the components are subject to linear and nonlinear constraints

This article presents a case study of developing a space-filling design (SFD) for a constrained mixture experiment when the experimental region is specified by single-component constraints (SCCs), linear multiple-component constraints (LMCCs), and nonlinear multiple-component constraints (NMCCs). Traditional methods and software for designing constrained mixture experiments with SCCs and LMCCs (using either optimal design or SFD approaches) are not directly applicable because of the NMCCs. A SFD algorithm in the JMP software was modified to accommodate the nonlinear MCCs; the modification is described in this article. The case study involves high-level waste (HLW) glass that is subject to the formation of nepheline crystals as the glass cools. This can significantly reduce the durability of HLW glass (which is undesirable). The goal of the study was to develop a SFD for the HLW glass compositional region where nepheline may form, and generate data for modeling nepheline formation as a function of HLW glass composition. The HLW glass composition region was specified in terms of eight components with SCCs, two LMCCs, and two NMCCs. The NMCCs were based on a nonlinear logistic regression model for a binary-response nepheline response that was developed from previous data. This article discusses the HLW glass example, the constraints specifying the experimental composition region, and how an existing algorithm for generating SFDs was modified to accommodate the NMCCs. The methodology discussed in this article can be applied to any example in which the experimental region is specified by one or more nonlinear constraints in addition to linear constraints on mixture components and/or non-mixture variables.

Mixture experiment, space-filling experimental des↗

Exploring Sensitivity of ICF Outputs to Design Parameters in Experiments Using Machine Learning

We report building a sustainable burn platform in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) requires an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes and the effects that key experimental design changes have on implosion performance. While simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, incomplete physics and the need for approximations deteriorate their predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs and measurable outcomes can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, which can potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF implosions. In this article, we leverage developments in machine learning (ML) and methods for ML feature importance/sensitivity analysis to identify complex relationships in ways that are difficult to process using expert judgment alone. We present work using random forest (RF) regression for prediction of yield, velocity, and other experimental outcomes given a suite of design parameters, along with an assessment of important relationships and uncertainties in the prediction model. We show that RF models are capable of learning and predicting on ICF experimental data with high accuracy, and we extract feature importance metrics that provide insight into the physical significance of different controllable design inputs for various ICF design configurations. These results can be used to augment expert intuition and simulation results for optimal design of future ICF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optimization of a Cyclone Using Multiphase Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics

The U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory's (NETL) 50 kW th chemical looping reactor (CLR) has an underperforming cyclone, which was designed using empirical correlations. To improve the performance of this cyclone using computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based modeling simulations, four critical design parameters including the vortex tube radius and length, barrel radius, and the inlet width and height were optimized. Here, NETL's open source multiphase flow with interphase exchange (MFiX) CFD code has been used to model a series of cyclones by systematically varying the geometric design parameters. To perform the optimization process, the surrogate modeling and sensitivity analysis followed by the optimization capability in nodeworks was used. The basic methodology for the process is to employ a statistical design of experiments (DOE) method to generate sampling simulations that fill the design space. Corresponding CFD models are then created, executed, and postprocessed. A response surface is created to characterize the relationship between input parameters and the quantities of interest (QoI). Finally, the CFD-surrogate is used by an optimization method to find the optimal design condition based on the objective and constraints prescribed. The resulting optimal cyclone has a larger diameter and longer vortex tube, a larger diameter barrel, and a taller and narrower solids inlet. The improved design has a predicted pressure drop 11 times lower than the original design while reducing the mass loss by a factor of 2.3.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-objective design of microvascular panels for battery cooling applications

Building on a recently developed optimization method based on an interface-enriched generalized finite element method, multiple objective functions are considered for the optimization of 2D networks of microchannels embedded in battery-cooling panels. The objective functions considered in this study are a differentiable alternative to the maximum temperature (the p-mean of the temperature), the pressure drop and the variance of the temperature. The -constraint method and the normalized normal constraint method are used to generate the pressure-temperature Pareto optimal front of the multi-objective optimization problem. The effects of different operating constraints/conditions such as localization of heat sources, prescribed pump power and imposed flow rate on the optimal designs are investigated. In addition to the topology of the embedded network, the cross sections of the microchannels are also introduced as design parameters to further improve the pressure drop of the designs. The resulting variable-cross-section optimized design is validated with experiment.

energy storage (including batteries and capacitors↗

Assessment of model parameters in MFiX particle-in-cell approach

The limitations in numerical treatment of solids-phase in conventional methods like Discrete Element Model and Two-Fluid Model have facilitated the development of alternative techniques such as Particle-In-Cell (PIC). However, a number of parameters are involved in PIC due to its empiricism. In this work, global sensitivity analysis of PIC model parameters is performed under three distinct operating regimes common in chemical engineering applications, viz. settling bed, bubbling fluidized bed and circulating fluidized bed. Simulations were performed using the PIC method in Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) developed by National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). A non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) based approach is applied using Nodeworks to first construct an adequate surrogate model and then identify the most influential parameters in each case. This knowledge will aid in developing an effective design of experiments and determine optimal parameters through techniques such as deterministic or statistical calibration.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Detection of Br and I as atomic anions using liquid sampling – atmospheric pressure glow discharge/Orbitrap mass spectrometry

The quantification and determination of halogen isotope composition is essential in many fields including geochemistry and nuclear forensics. Detection of the halogen elements is commonly attempted with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) however, there are multiple challenges faced. Most significantly this includes very poor ionization efficiency and the potential for isobaric interferences from either matrix or plasma species. Thus, sensitivity and accuracy are often limiting issues. Here a liquid sampling-atmospheric pressure glow discharge (LS-APGD) ionization source is coupled with an ultrahigh resolution Orbitrap MS to perform halogen detection of bromine and iodine as initial analytes. This facilitates simple and sensitive detection of these elements as atomic anions from simple aqueous salt solutions. Collision-induced dissociation (CID) and higher-energy collisional dissociation (HCD) energies were optimized to produce the maximum response of Br − and I − . The LS-APGD conditions were optimized using a design of experiments (DOE) approach for Br − and I − concurrently. Response curves for Br − and I − solutions determined limit of detection (LOD) values of 50 pg and 5 pg, respectively, in 20 μL aliquots. The curves indicated response factors of 0.67 for 79 Br − and 0.90 for 127 I − . Br isotope ratios were determined with precision between 0.7 and 7.3% RSD, with the isotope ratios determined with precision 0.8% RSD at concentrations above the limit of quantification. Preliminary tests were conducted to evaluate the effect of different cations (Na + , K + , and Mg 2+ ) on Br − responses, with no discernible impacts observed on the halogen signal responses. This study demonstrates the potential use of the LS-APGD-Orbitrap-MS for the detection of multiple halogens while avoiding interferences, minimizing sample preparation, and overcoming ionization barriers.

Lang, Dehlia A. [Clemson University, SC (United St↗

Direct measurements of anode/cathode gap plasma in cylindrically imploding loads on the Z machine

By deploying a photon Doppler velocimetry based plasma diagnostic, we have directly observed low density plasma in the load anode/cathode gap of cylindrically converging pulsed power targets. The arrival of this plasma is temporally correlated with gross current loss and subtle power flow differences between the anode and the cathode. The density is in the range where Hall terms in the electromagnetic equations are relevant, but this physics is lacking in the magnetohydrodynamics codes commonly used to design, analyze, and optimize pulsed power experiments. Here, the present work presents evidence of the importance of physics beyond traditional resistive magnetohydrodynamics for the design of pulsed power targets and drivers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deposition and characterization of molybdenum thin films using dc-plasma magnetron sputtering

Molebdenum (Mo) thin films were deposited on well-cleaned soda-lime glass substrates using DC-plasma magnetron sputtering. In the design of experiment deposition was optimized for maximum beneficial characteristics by monitoring effect of process variables such as deposition power (100–200 W). Their electrical, structural and morphological properties were analyzed to study the effect of these variables. The electrical resistivity of Mo thin films could be reduced by increasing deposition power. Within the range of analyzed deposition power, Mo thin films showed a mono crystalline nature and the crystallites were found to have an orientation along [110] direction. The surface morphology of thin films showed that a highly dense micro structure has been obtained. The surface roughness of films increased with deposition power. The adhesion of Mo thin films could be improved by increasing the deposition power. Atomic force microscopy was used for the topographical study of the films and to determine the roughness of the films. X-ray diffractrometer and scanning electron microscopy analysis were used to investigate the crystallinity and surface morphology of the films. Hall effect measurement system was used to find resistivity, carrier mobility and carrier density of deposited films. The adhesion test was performed using scotch hatch tape adhesion test. Mo thin films prepared at deposition power of 200 W, substrate temperature of 23°C and Ar pressure of 0.0123 mbar exhibited a mono crystalline structure with an orientation along (110) direction, thickness of ∼550 nm and electrical resistivity value of 0.57 × 10{sup −4} Ω cm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fast neutron background characterization of the future Ricochet experiment at the ILL research nuclear reactor

Abstract The future Ricochet experiment aims at searching for new physics in the electroweak sector by providing a high precision measurement of the Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CENNS) process down to the sub-100 eV nuclear recoil energy range. The experiment will deploy a kg-scale low-energy-threshold detector array combining Ge and Zn target crystals 8.8 m away from the 58 MW research nuclear reactor core of the Institut Laue Langevin (ILL) in Grenoble, France. Currently, the Ricochet Collaboration is characterizing the backgrounds at its future experimental site in order to optimize the experiment’s shielding design. The most threatening background component, which cannot be actively rejected by particle identification, consists of keV-scale neutron-induced nuclear recoils. These initial fast neutrons are generated by the reactor core and surrounding experiments (reactogenics), and by the cosmic rays producing primary neutrons and muon-induced neutrons in the surrounding materials. In this paper, we present the Ricochet neutron background characterization using $$^3$$ 3 He proportional counters which exhibit a high sensitivity to thermal, epithermal and fast neutrons. We compare these measurements to the Ricochet Geant4 simulations to validate our reactogenic and cosmogenic neutron background estimations. Eventually, we present our estimated neutron background for the future Ricochet experiment and the resulting CENNS detection significance. Our results show that depending on the effectiveness of the muon veto, we expect a total nuclear recoil background rate between 44 ± 3 and 9 ± 2 events/day/kg in the CENNS region of interest, i.e. between 50 eV and 1 keV. We therefore found that the Ricochet experiment should reach a statistical significance of 4.6 to 13.6 $$\sigma $$ σ for the detection of CENNS after one reactor cycle, when only the limiting neutron background is considered.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hydrogen Selective Exfoliated Zeolite Membranes

The objective of this project was to develop and evaluate an innovative membrane technology at process conditions that would be representative of Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) advanced power generation with pre-combustion capture of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). This research focused on hydrogen (H 2 )-selective zeolite membranes that could be utilized to separate conditioned syngas into H 2 -rich and CO 2 -rich components. Both experiments and process design and optimization calculations were performed to evaluate the concept of ultra-thin membranes made from zeolites nanosheets. In this work, efforts in the laboratory were made to tackle two fundamental challenges in application of zeolite membranes in harsh industrial environments, namely, membrane thickness and membrane stability. Conventional zeolite membranes have thicknesses in the micron range, limiting their performance. In this research, we developed a method for fabrication of ultimately thin zeolite membranes based on zeolite nanosheets. A range of layered zeolites (MWW, RWR, NSI structure types) suitable for hydrogen separation was successfully exfoliated to their constituent nanosheets. Further, membranes were made from one of these zeolites, MWW, to demonstrate the potential of this group of materials. Moreover, long-term steam stability of these zeolites (up to 6 months) was investigated in high concentrations of steam (35 mol% and 95 mole%), high pressure (10 barg), and high temperatures (350 °C and 600 °C) relevant to conditions of water-gas-shift and steam methane reforming reactions. It was found that certain nanosheets are stable, and that stability depends on the concentration of structural defects. Additionally, models that represent a water-gas-shift (WGS) membrane reactor equipped with the zeolite membrane were developed for systems studies. These studies had the aim of analyzing the effect of the membrane reactor integration into IGCC plants in terms of performance and economic aspects of the plants. Specifically, simulation and design optimization studies were performed using the developed stand-alone membrane reactor models to identify the membrane selectivity and permeance characteristics necessary to achieve desired targets of CO 2 capture and H 2 recovery, as well as guide the selection of the optimal reactor design that minimizes the membrane cost as a function of its surface area required. The isothermal membrane reactor model was also integrated into IGCC system models using both the MATLAB and Aspen software platforms and techno-economic analyses of the integrated plants have been carried out to evaluate the feasibility of replacing current technologies for pre-combustion capture by the proposed novel approach in terms of satisfying stream constraints and achieving the DOE target goal of 90% CO 2 capture. The results of the performed analyses based on present value of annuity calculations showed break even costs for the membrane reactor within the feasible range for membrane fabrication. However, the predicted membrane performance used in these simulations exceeded the performance achieved experimentally. Therefore, further work is required to improve membrane performance.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗