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NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of Adverse Events in Time Series Data Using ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox)

Abstract:An open-source toolbox called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox) that operates from within the Matlab programming environment is introduced. The toolbox provides an open source, special-purpose functionality that can be used specifically for the prediction or forecasting of adverse events in time series data. It also provides a single, unifying framework in which to compare a variety of combinations of algorithmic approaches addressing this problem. The architectural framework also offers the flexibility for expansion to accommodate the newest, latest popular regression and detection methods for this particular problem, enabling the development of an infrastructure that can act as a proving ground platform for comparing new techniques to the state of the art. As such, its intention is to act as a catalyst in advancing the state of the art in technologies related to this problem. There are a variety of other toolboxes that offer similar capabilities and features, however they are either more suitable as general purpose machine learning toolboxes or are only available commercially or through agreements. ACCEPT fills that niche by offering visibility into a specific approach for addressing the adverse event prediction problem.

programming environments↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of Head Injury Assessment Reference Values Based on NASA Injury Modeling

NASA is developing a new capsule-based, crewed vehicle that will land in the ocean, and the space agency desires to reduce the risk of injury from impact during these landings. Because landing impact occurs for each flight and the crew might need to perform egress tasks, current injury assessment reference values (IARV) were deemed insufficient. Because NASCAR occupant restraint systems are more effective than the systems used to determine the current IARVs and are similar to NASA s proposed restraint system, an analysis of NASCAR impacts was performed to develop new IARVs that may be more relevant to NASA s context of vehicle landing operations. Head IARVs associated with race car impacts were investigated by completing a detailed analysis of all of the 2002-2008 NASCAR impact data. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select 4071 impacts from the 4015 recorder files provided (each file could contain multiple impact events). Of the 4071 accepted impacts, 274 were selected for numerical simulation using a custom NASCAR restraint system and Humanetics Hybrid-III 50th percentile numerical dummy model in LS-DYNA. Injury had occurred in 32 of the 274 selected impacts, and 27 of those injuries involved the head. A majority of the head injuries were mild concussions with or without brief loss of consciousness. The 242 non-injury impacts were randomly selected and representative of the range of crash dynamics present in the total set of 4071 impacts. Head dynamics data (head translational acceleration, translational change in velocity, rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, HIC-15, HIC-36, and the Head 3ms clip) were filtered according to SAE J211 specifications and then transformed to a log scale. The probability of head injury was estimated using a separate logistic regression analysis for each log-transformed predictor candidate. Using the log transformation constrains the estimated probability of injury to become negligible as IARVs approach zero. For the parameters head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, HIC-15, and HIC-36, conservative values (in the lower 95% confidence interval) that gave rise to a 5% risk of any injury occurring were estimated as 40.0 G, 7.9 m/s, 2200 rad/s2, 98.4, and 77.4 respectively. Because NASA is interested in the consequence of any particular injury on the ability of the crew to perform egress tasks, the head injuries that occurred in the NASCAR dataset were classified according to a NASA-developed scale (Classes I - III) for operationally relevant injuries, which classifies injuries on the basis of their operational significance. Additional analysis of the data was performed to determine the probability of each injury class occurring, and this was estimated using an ordered probit model. For head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, head rotational velocity, HIC-36, and head 3ms clip, conservative values of IARVs that produced a 5% risk of Class II injury were estimated as 50.7 G, 9.5 m/s, 2863 rad/s2, 11.0 rad/s, 30.3, and 46.4 G respectively. The results indicate that head IARVs developed from the NASCAR dataset may be useful to protect crews during landing impact.

Somers, Jeffrey T.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Structure Detection of Nonlinear Aeroelastic Systems with Application to Aeroelastic Flight Test Data

This viewgraph presentation reviews the applicability of NARMAX structure detection to aeroelastic systems. In conclusion, the simulation results demonstrate bootstrap approach for structure computation of aircraft structural stiffness provided a high rate of true model selection: 1. T-test and stepwise regression methods had difficulty providing accurate results 2. Work contributes to understanding of the use of structure detection for modelling and identification of aerospace systems. 3. Limitation of model complexity that can be studied with these structure computation techniques 4. Result of the large number of candidate terms, for a given model order, and the data length required to guarantee convergence 5. Another approach to structure computation problem uses a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Longitudinal flying qualities criteria for single-pilot instrument flight operations

Modern estimation and control theory, flight testing, and statistical analysis were used to deduce flying qualities criteria for General Aviation Single Pilot Instrument Flight Rule (SPIFR) operations. The principal concern is that unsatisfactory aircraft dynamic response combined with high navigation/communication workload can produce problems of safety and efficiency. To alleviate these problems. The relative importance of these factors must be determined. This objective was achieved by flying SPIFR tasks with different aircraft dynamic configurations and assessing the effects of such variations under these conditions. The experimental results yielded quantitative indicators of pilot's performance and workload, and for each of them, multivariate regression was applied to evaluate several candidate flying qualities criteria.

Stengel, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Longitudinal flying qualitites criteria for single-pilot instrument flight operations

Modern estimation and control theory, flight testing, and statistical analysis were used to deduce flying qualities criteria for General Aviation Single Pilot Instrument Flight Rule (SPIFR) operations. The principal concern is that unsatisfactory aircraft dynamic response combined with high navigation/communication workload can produce problems of safety and efficiency. To alleviate these problems, the relative importance of these factors must be determined. This objective was achieved by flying SPIFR tasks with different aircraft dynamic configurations and assessing the effects of such variations under these conditions. The experimental results yielded quantitative indicators of pilot's performance and workload, and for each of them, multivariate regression was applied to evaluate several candidate flying qualities criteria.

Bar-Gill, A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗
NASA NTRS1990

Intelligent control and adaptive systems; Proceedings of the Meeting, Philadelphia, PA, Nov. 7, 8, 1989

Various papers on intelligent control and adaptive systems are presented. Individual topics addressed include: control architecture for a Mars walking vehicle, representation for error detection and recovery in robot task plans, real-time operating system for robots, execution monitoring of a mobile robot system, statistical mechanics models for motion and force planning, global kinematics for manipulator planning and control, exploration of unknown mechanical assemblies through manipulation, low-level representations for robot vision, harmonic functions for robot path construction, simulation of dual behavior of an autonomous system. Also discussed are: control framework for hand-arm coordination, neural network approach to multivehicle navigation, electronic neural networks for global optimization, neural network for L1 norm linear regression, planning for assembly with robot hands, neural networks in dynamical systems, control design with iterative learning, improved fuzzy process control of spacecraft autonomous rendezvous using a genetic algorithm.

Rodriguez, Guillermo↗
NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics of Power MOSFET

This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

Celaya, Jose Ramon↗
NASA NTRS1991

Experimental investigation of a solid rocket combustion simulator

The response of solid rocket motor materials to high-temperature corrosive gases is usually accomplished by testing the materials in a subscale solid rocket motor. While this imposes the proper thermal and chemical environment, a solid rocket motor does not provide practical features that would enhance systematic evaluations such as: the ability to throttle for margin testing, on/off capability, low test cost, and a low-hazards test article. Solid Rocket Combustion Simulators (SRCS) are being evaluated by NASA to test solid rocket nozzle materials and incorporate these essential practical features into the testing of rocket materials. The SRCS is designed to generate the thermochemical environment of a solid rocket. It uses hybrid rocket motor technology in which gaseous oxygen (Gox) is injected into a chamber containing a solid fuel grain. Specific chemicals are injected in the aft mixing chamber so that the gases entering the test section match the temperature and a non-dimensional erosion factor B' to insure similarity with a solid motor. Because the oxygen flow can be controlled, this approach allows margin testing, the ability to throttle, and an on/off capability. The fuel grains are inert which makes the test article very safe to handle. The objective of this work was to establish the baseline operating characteristics of a Labscale Solid Rocket Combustion Simulator (LSRCS). This included establishing the baseline burning rates of plexiglass fuels and the evaluation of a combustion instability for hydroxy-terminated polybutadyene (HTPB) propellants. The scope of the project included: (1) activation of MSFC Labscale Hybrid Combustion Simulator; (2) testing of plexiglass fuel at Gox ranges from 0.025 to 0.200 lb/s; (3) burning HTPB fuels at a Gox rate of 0.200 lb/s using four different mixing chamber configurations; and (4) evaluating the fuel regression and chamber pressure responses of each firing.

Frederick, Robert A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Ozone Observations by the Gas and Aerosol Measurement Sensor during SOLVE II

The Gas and Aerosol Measurement Sensor (GAMS) was deployed aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II). GAMS acquired line-of-sight (LOS) direct solar irradiance spectra during the sunlit portions of ten science flights of the DC-8 between 12 January and 4 February 2003. Differential line-of-sight (DLOS) optical depth spectra are produced from the GAMS raw solar irradiance spectra. Then, DLOS ozone number densities are retrieved from the GAMS spectra using a multiple linear regression spectral fitting technique. Both the DLOS optical depth spectra and retrieved ozone data are compared with coincident measurements from two other solar instruments aboard the DC-8 platform to demonstrate the robustness and stability of the GAMS data. The GAMS ozone measurements are then utilized to evaluate the quality of the Wulf band ozone cross sections, a critical component of the SAGE III aerosol, water vapor, and temperature/pressure retrievals. Results suggest the ozone cross section compilation of Shettle and Anderson currently used operationally in SAGE III data processing may be in error by as much as 10-20% in theWulf bands, and their lack of reported temperature dependence is a significant deficiency. A second, more recent, cross section database compiled for the SCIAMACHY satellite mission appears to be of much better quality in the Wulf bands, but still may have errors as large as 5% near the Wulf band absorption peaks, which is slightly larger than their stated uncertainty. Additional laboratory measurements of the Wulf band cross sections should be pursued to further reduce their uncertainty and better quantify their temperature dependence.

Pitts, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assessment of Biases in MODIS Surface Reflectance Due to Lambertian Approximation

Using MODIS data and the AERONET-based Surface Reflectance Validation Network (ASRVN), this work studies errors of MODIS atmospheric correction caused by the Lambertian approximation. On one hand, this approximation greatly simplifies the radiative transfer model, reduces the size of the look-up tables, and makes operational algorithm faster. On the other hand, uncompensated atmospheric scattering caused by Lambertian model systematically biases the results. For example, for a typical bowl-shaped bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), the derived reflectance is underestimated at high solar or view zenith angles, where BRDF is high, and is overestimated at low zenith angles where BRDF is low. The magnitude of biases grows with the amount of scattering in the atmosphere, i.e., at shorter wavelengths and at higher aerosol concentration. The slope of regression of Lambertian surface reflectance vs. ASRVN bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) is about 0.85 in the red and 0.6 in the green bands. This error propagates into the MODIS BRDF/albedo algorithm, slightly reducing the magnitude of overall reflectance and anisotropy of BRDF. This results in a small negative bias of spectral surface albedo. An assessment for the GSFC (Greenbelt, USA) validation site shows the albedo reduction by 0.004 in the near infrared, 0.005 in the red, and 0.008 in the green MODIS bands.

Wang, Yujie↗
NASA NTRS1973

The use of statistical characteristics of reducer vibrations as diagnostic symptoms

The results of a statistical analysis of the vibrations of the experimental RS-1 reducer stand, with a spiral-gear transmission, operating on a closed circuit, are presented. The analysis was carried out on the Minsk-2 and Minsk-32 digital computers, with two-channel analog-digital converter, built in the Institute of the Science of Mechanics. Two-dimensional distribution patterns, conditional dispersions and dispersion ratios were calculated. The octave-band-filtered first harmonics of the tooth frequency f sub z of the vibrations at two different measurement points were considered as the components of the vibration process to be analyzed. The regression lines, corresponding to different values of the loading torque, are presented. Since it was not the gear drive parameters which were determined by diagnostic methods, but the characteristics most sensitive to change in state of the object of the investigation, the loading torque, which is the simplest and most accessible for measurement, was chosen as the condition parameter.

Balitskiy, F. Y.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deriving Broadband Radiances from Geostationary Satellite Visible Radiance Channels for Use in the CERES SYN1deg Product

The NASA CERES project was designed to monitor the Earth’s radiation budget, both at the regional and global scale. The CERES SSF1deg single satellite product provides TOA flux observations from Aqua, Terra, NPP, and NOAA-20. The SYN1deg product incorporates observations from Terra, Aqua, and geostationary (GEO) satellites. The GEO observations are included in the SYN1deg product to infer the regional diurnal cycle between CERES observations. GEO satellites throughout the CERES record have different narrowband spectral response functions and do not directly observe radiances over the broadband spectra of CERES instruments. Hence the emphasis of this study is improving the process of deriving broadband radiances from the myriad GEO visible channel observations. We present a new method for converting the narrowband radiances observed from GEO operational satellites. This study relies on radiative transfer model hyper-spectral radiances for many cloud and surface conditions under all angular conditions observed by GEO sensors. First, the hyper-spectral radiances from a radiative transfer model must be convolved with the spectral response function of the visible imager for each GEO sensor in the CERES record. For each angular bin and surface type, the clear-sky and multiple optical depth and phase cloudy-sky narrowband and broadband reflectance pairs are linearly regressed. This study found that, no matter how the scene conditions are stratified, for example the all-sky, clear-sky, ice or water clouds, they all provide similar linear regressions. This includes ocean glint conditions, where the clear-sky reflectance exceeds cloudy conditions and yet the relationship was found to be linear in the given angular bin. This infers that no GEO retrieved cloud information is necessary in the narrowband to broadband conversion process, which relies only on visible channel reflectance. Over land, most of the GEO visible channels do not observe the NIR vegetation reflectance. We intend to use land adjustment factors developed using the TOA reflectance difference between the real-time MODIS .86um and the .64um channel. We validate this approach by using coincident observational data between CERES and MODIS aboard Aqua and Terra as well as GEO and CERES observations .

CERES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Stepwise Regression Analysis of MDOE Balance Calibration Data Acquired at DNW

This paper reports a comparison of two experiment design methods applied in the calibration of a strain-gage balance. One features a 734-point test matrix in which loads are varied systematically according to a method commonly applied in aerospace research and known in the literature of experiment design as One Factor At a Time (OFAT) testing. Two variations of an alternative experiment design were also executed on the same balance, each with different features of an MDOE experiment design. The Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE) is an integrated process of experiment design, execution, and analysis applied at NASA's Langley Research Center to achieve significant reductions in cycle time, direct operating cost, and experimental uncertainty in aerospace research generally and in balance calibration experiments specifically. Personnel in the Instrumentation and Controls Department of the German Dutch Wind Tunnels (DNW) have applied MDOE methods to evaluate them in the calibration of a balance using an automated calibration machine. The data have been sent to Langley Research Center for analysis and comparison. This paper reports key findings from this analysis. The chief result is that a 100-point calibration exploiting MDOE principles delivered quality comparable to a 700+ point OFAT calibration with significantly reduced cycle time and attendant savings in direct and indirect costs. While the DNW test matrices implemented key MDOE principles and produced excellent results, additional MDOE concepts implemented in balance calibrations at Langley Research Center are also identified and described.

DeLoach, RIchard↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transient Modeling of Hybrid Rocket Low Frequency Instabilities

A comprehensive dynamic model of a hybrid rocket has been developed in order to understand and predict the transient behavior including instabilities. A linearized version of the transient model predicted the low-frequency chamber pressure oscillations that are commonly observed in hybrids. The source of the instabilities is based on a complex coupling of thermal transients in the solid fuel, wall heat transfer blocking due to fuel regression rate and the transients in the boundary layer that forms on the fuel surface. The oscillation frequencies predicted by the linearized theory are in very good agreement with 43 motor test results obtained from the hybrid propulsion literature. The motor test results used in the comparison cover a very wide spectrum of parameters including: 1) four separate research and development programs, 2) three different oxidizers (LOX, GOX, N2O), 3) a wide range of motor dimensions (i.e. from 5 inch diameter to 72 inch diameter) and operating conditions and 4) several fuel formulations. A simple universal scaling formula for the frequency of the primary oscillation mode is suggested.

Karabeyoglu, M. Arif↗
NASA NTRS1986

Aircrew coordination and decisionmaking: Peer ratings of video tapes made during a full mission simulation

Six professionally active, retired captains rated the coordination and decisionmaking performances of sixteen aircrews while viewing videotapes of a simulated commercial air transport operation. The scenario featured a required diversion and a probable minimum fuel situation. Seven point Likert-type scales were used in rating variables on the basis of a model of crew coordination and decisionmaking. The variables were based on concepts of, for example, decision difficulty, efficiency, and outcome quality; and leader-subordin ate concepts such as person and task-oriented leader behavior, and competency motivation of subordinate crewmembers. Five-front-end variables of the model were in turn dependent variables for a hierarchical regression procedure. The variance in safety performance was explained 46%, by decision efficiency, command reversal, and decision quality. The variance of decision quality, an alternative substantive dependent variable to safety performance, was explained 60% by decision efficiency and the captain's quality of within-crew communications. The variance of decision efficiency, crew coordination, and command reversal were in turn explained 78%, 80%, and 60% by small numbers of preceding independent variables. A principle component, varimax factor analysis supported the model structure suggested by regression analyses.

Murphy, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Decomposition↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Flooding Vulnerability to Assist High Water Intervention and Urban Planning Programs in the Charles River Watershed with NASA DEVELOP

The Charles River watershed intersects 35 municipalities within the Boston Metropolitan Area and has a total population of 1.2 million, making it one of the most densely populated watersheds in New England. In recent years, the watershed has observed higher rates of flood inundation, mainly due to increased development, extreme precipitation events, and increased surface runoff. As the frequency of flooding events increases and a changing climate poses an ongoing threat to local communities, governments and organizations in Massachusetts are in need of accurate flood risk assessments. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Charles River Watershed Association, the Town of Natick’s Office of Sustainability, and the Massachusetts Audubon Society to assess flood vulnerability and susceptibility in the watershed. The team used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument to assess the feasibility of identifying the extent of past flood events using remote sensing. After identifying images that overlapped with reported flood events, the team concluded that it was not feasible to use Earth observation data to detect localized flooding in the time available for this study. Instead, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 100-year floodplain was used as a proxy for areas where flooding may occur. The team used statistical regression analysis and validation and supervised classification to develop a flood susceptibility map, incorporating several flood conditioning factors. The susceptibility maps were calibrated to various thresholds, including two that highlight hypothetical flooding under more liberal and more conservative planning scenarios. These were overlaid with demographic and socioeconomic data to create flood vulnerability maps. The team’s flood susceptibility maps showed an improvement in capturing known flood events over the FEMA 100-year and 500-year floodplain maps. These results will be improved with the addition of stormwater drainage mapping and precipitation data. Results can be used to fill in the gaps to help the stakeholders understand their communities’ vulnerability and susceptibility to flooding and improve their preparedness plans.

Trista Brophy↗