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At least 217 records · Page 12

Enhanced Carbon Storage Forecasting via Cross-Geology Transfer Learning

Rapid simulation of the spatiotemporal evolution of pressure & saturation for SACROC 1. Neural operator was trained on only 153 simulation runs 2. Trained to account for heterogeneity and variations/uncertainties in engineering, fluids, and geology 3. Pressure forecast has less than 1% error 4. Saturation forecast has less than 2% error 5. Traditional simulator takes 1 hour for a single scenario, while neural operator takes less than 1 minute. Rapid simulation of the spatiotemporal evolution of pressure & saturation for IBDP 1. Transfer Learning was implemented on the SACROC-based Neural Operator that was trained on only 20 simulation runs for IBDP Site 2. SACROC and IBDP Sites have several significant differences in geology and engineering parameters. 3. Pressure forecast has less than 5 psi error 4. Saturation forecast has less than 7% error 5. Traditional simulator takes 1 hour for a single scenario, while neural operator takes less than 1 minute and only 20 simulations for training/validation.

Misra, Siddharth↗

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Quantum‐Classical Simulation of Quantum Field Theory by Quantum Circuit Learning

Abstract Quantum circuit learning is employed to simulate quantum field theories (QFTs). Typically, when simulating QFTs with quantum computers, significant challenges are encountered due to the technical limitations of quantum devices when implementing the Hamiltonian using Pauli spin matrices. To address this challenge, quantum circuit learning is leveraged, employing a compact configuration of qubits and low‐depth quantum circuits to predict real‐time dynamics in quantum field theories. The key advantage of this approach is that a single‐qubit measurement can accurately forecast various physical parameters, including fully‐connected operators. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, it is used to predict quench dynamics, chiral dynamics and jet production in a 1+1‐dimensional model of quantum electrodynamics. It is found that our predictions closely align with the results of rigorous classical calculations, exhibiting a high degree of accuracy. This hybrid quantum‐classical approach illustrates the feasibility of efficiently simulating large‐scale QFTs on cutting‐edge quantum devices.

Ikeda, Kazuki [Department of Physics University of↗

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy

Resource adequacy concerns may be very different in electricity systems that have higher levels of solar and storage, requiring changes to existing planning models. This study explores a novel approach to evaluating resource adequacy under future scenarios with higher solar and storage in the Southeast U.S. It uses NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), a collection of probabilistic resource adequacy modeling tools, and compares results when interacting PRAS and a portfolio planning tool with a more traditional modeling approach. The results suggest that traditional models perform reasonably well with lower levels of solar PV, but at higher levels of solar probabilistic tools better capture the changes in resource adequacy concerns—such as winter energy availability—associated with higher solar systems. This is the final study in the Preparing Southeast Markets for Reliable and Affordable Integration of Solar into Operations and Planning project. Two prior reports can be found at: Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/solar-and-storage-integration Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region. https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/multiutility_fe_reserve_sharing_final.pdf

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) Prediction of Mixed Mass-Heat-Crystallization Limited Methane Hydrate Formation and Dissociation in Micro-Confinement

The creation and use of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for simulating the dynamics of methane hydrate formation and dissociation will be presented. The PINN framework's main benefit is its capacity to impose physical consistency with only a partial comprehension of the governing equations. This makes the algorithm especially useful for systems with little experimental evidence or a lack of theoretical knowledge. A strong basis for forecasting methane hydrate behavior over the verified operating ranges of 30.0-80.9 bar pressure and 1.0-4.0 K sub-cooling conditions is provided by the combination of conductive heat transfer equations and mixed mass-transfer–crystallization kinetics. PINNs were more accurate at predicting the mixed mass-heat-crystallization limited kinetics than conventional Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), demonstrating remarkable predictive accuracy for methane hydrate production over the ANN model. The efficiency of incorporating physical limitations from first principles into machine learning frameworks for methane hydrate crystallizations is reinforced by these findings. For hydrate-related applications in energy generation, carbon sequestration, and climate modelling, our study establishes PINNs as a computational tool that is both scalable and efficient. The proven capacity to close the gap between conventional physics-based simulations and solely data-driven models creates new opportunities for expedited hydrate research and practical applications.

Hartman, Ryan L [NYU Tandon School of Engineering]↗

Speed to Power: Solutions for Accelerating Large Load Connections

Rapid growth in demand from data centers and other large loads is creating a range of new challenges for electricity planners, investors, system operators, and regulators, leading to bottlenecks that have slowed connection of large loads to the electric grid. In response, innovative solutions for accelerating large load connections are beginning to emerge across the U.S. Drawing on an extensive document and literature review, this report identifies more than 40 potential solutions for accelerating large load connections, organized into five functional areas: load forecasting, interconnection, resource planning and procurement, markets and operations, and cost allocation and ratemaking. The five functional areas provide a framework for organizing challenges and solutions to large load connection bottlenecks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

HPC Analytics of Fused Thermal Plants Data to Optimize Operating Envelope

In this project, ORNL extensively reviewed the ORAP RAM data, and it guided us to develop machine learning models that can predict time to next failures and forecast failure trends, which will be useful for optimizing power plant operation strategies. More specifically, we trained multiple random forest models and evaluated the model accuracy to validate with 10+ years of historical data. In addition, we implemented a web-based graphical user interface system for the models to show how our models can be used in more intuitive ways. This proof of concept allowed exploration of model use with power plant operators in mind. Developed machine learning models will be helpful for managing risks, planning maintenance and operation, ultimately reducing the down time and increasing the service hours. For future work, there are several interesting research topics including but not limited to model enhancement, creating synergy with traditional failure modeling approaches, and data-driven actionable recommendation and suggestions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Flow Forecasting on New England’s Great River Hydro (Abstract)

Great River Hydro (GRH) operates 13 generating stations and 3 storage-only reservoirs along the Upper Connecticut River, draining 6,266 square miles. Managing the reservoirs requires coordination over a couple days. So far seasonal flow-forecast and medium range probabilistic flow forecast during high flow conditions are leading to satisfactory management. Great River Hydro is seeking technical assistance to evaluate potential improvements in inflow forecasting and scheduling accuracy, particularly during short- to medium- duration periods (1-10 days). Improved accuracy is anticipated to enhance the efficiency with which GRH utilizes water, improving GRH’s ability to hit the best priced hours throughout the system and enhancing revenues as a result.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗

Artificial intelligence time series forecasting for feed-forward laser stabilization

Laser plasma accelerators, typically operating at 1–10 Hz repetition rates, have the ability to produce high-quality electron beams in compact, all-optical-driven configurations, with the electron beams uniquely suited for a wide variety of accelerator-based applications. However, fluctuations and drifts in the laser delivery to the meter-scaled and below plasma target (the electron beam source) will translate into electron beam source variations that can limit their utility for demanding applications like light sources or linear colliders. Commercially available active feedback laser stabilization systems are intrinsically bandwidth limited due to their integration with multi-inch corrective mirror mounts which minimizes their effectiveness. In this manuscript, we present a Neural Network time series forecaster that can predict laser position fluctuations of the laser delivery to the final target well ahead of a future laser shot. The Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of the prediction accuracy was < 2 μ m for a 1 / e 2 beam radius of 34 μ m . Our feed-forward approach serves as a first-step in circumventing the bandwidth limitations imposed by the currently available stabilization systems since it allows for mirrors to be moved into position ahead of time to offset the predicted future position drift. This will help advance laser plasma accelerator research by providing greater robustness and stability needed for its applications.

Berger, Curtis↗

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 99% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows: Preprint

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 1.6% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

Wattile: Probabilistic Deep Learning-based Forecasting of Building Energy Consumption [SWR-20-94]

Accurate energy forecasting is becoming critical due to many reasons: i ) optimal distributed energy resources operations and dispatch, ii) fault detection and diagnostics, and iii) meeting operational energy efficiency targets. Wattile uses deep learning (DL) for the building's short-term load forecasting application. Two specific types of neural networks called, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) models are used to make predictions. Forecasting models are trained using online historical weather and occupancy indicator data streams from the Intelligent Campus Program's data acquisition systems at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for main meters and sub-meters of multiple building types. These models use probabilistic methods to provide quantile-based forecasts in addition to nominal conditional median predictions of electricity consumption.

Frank, Stephen↗

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

Entropy-Infused Deep Learning Loss Function for Capturing Extreme Values in Wind Power Forecasting

Extreme scenarios in wind power generation occur with higher frequency and larger magnitude in the recent years due to the ever-increasing extreme meteorological factors. Accurate forecasting of the occurrence of extreme values in wind power generation is of great concern to ensure reliable power system operation. Recently, deep learning models have surged in popularity for wind power forecasting, with the mean squared error (MSE) loss function being commonly used. However, the MSE loss function, being sensitive to extreme values, disproportionately penalizes larger errors, cannot adequately capture the extreme values present in wind energy data, and novel loss functions have seldom been tailored for wind power forecasting. To this end, in this paper, we introduce a novel loss function specifically crafted to capture extreme values in wind power forecasting. The experimental results with four fundamental deep learning methods on open source wind power dataset validate that the new loss function is efficient and superior in all cases compared to MSE in capturing extreme values while maintaining forecasting performance.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Cyber Conservative Operations

In an era of increasingly sophisticated and pervasive cyber threats, robust cyber resilience strategies are more critical than ever. This paper introduces the concept of Cyber Conservative Operations, a proactive approach designed to assist critical infrastructure owners and operators in managing risk and maintaining resilience in the face of imminent, yet not occurring, cyber events. By leveraging the principles of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) and the energy sector’s practice of conservative operations, Cyber Conservative Operations offer a framework for planning and executing coordinated active defense and resilience-oriented actions ahead of cyber events. This approach aims to minimize the consequences of digitally-enabled hazards and ensure swift recovery from anticipated cyber threats. Cyber Conservative Operations enhance the ability of owners and operators to execute pre-planned defense and resilience actions, thereby reducing the impact of digitally-enabled hazards. These operations are crucial for addressing impacts that cannot be precisely quantified or forecasted and for preparing organizations for rapid recovery from imminent digital threats. The paper begins with a discussion of conservative operations as applied to the bulk power system (BPS), a current mechanism allowing BPS entities to enact defensive operating plans to mitigate impending grid unreliability. Building on this model, we present a concept for implementing cyber conservative operations at asset owner facilities. The paper concludes with two case studies of cyber conservative operations drawn from high-profile cyber events, illustrating the practical application and benefits of this proactive approach.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗