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At least 217 records · Page 12

Causal CCF Parameter Estimations 2020

This report documents the quantitative results of the causal common-cause failure (CCF) parameter estimations for the failure cause groups “component,” “design,” “environment,” “human,” and “other,” based on CCF data through 2020 in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CCF database: https://rads.inl.gov/Pages/CCF.aspx. This report utilizes the same data period (2006–2020) and CCF templates as INL/EXT-21-62940, Revision 1, CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update. The 2015 causal CCF prior distributions for the specific failure cause groups (instead of the 2015 generic CCF prior distributions) were used in this report to estimate the associated causal CCF parameters. All the 2015 causal CCF prior distributions and generic CCF prior distributions were developed in INL/EXT-21-43723, Developing Generic Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors and Causal Alpha Factors, using CCF data from 1997 to 2015. These quantitative results were developed to support the causal alpha factor model and should be used as appropriate in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies such as the NRC Significance Determination Process for commercial nuclear power plants in the United States.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determination of travelling ionospheric disturbances

A total of 35 days of Faraday rotation data was obtained from the ATS-6 radio beacon experiment operating with the closely spaced network of Elbert, Table Mountain, and Fort Morgan. The 140-MHz Faraday bandpass data are uncorrelated in the transmission range from 8 to 45 minutes. There are distinct, well correlated, and time-displaced maxima and minima that allow the calculation of the speed and direction of horizontal motions of plane fronts of disturbances in the ionosphere. For some selected events, velocities between 88 and 278 m/sec were obtained.

Degenhardt, W.↗

Nighttime/daytime optical survey of lightning and convective phenomena experiment (NOSL)

The Nighttime/Daytime Optical Survey of Lightning experiment was selected for flight on Orbital Flight Test 2 of the Space Shuttle. The background and rationale for the experiment are presented and the experiment hardware, the operating procedures, and the data analysis technique are discussed. Some preliminary results from the prototype hardware development are also presented.

Vonnegut, B.↗

Two years of on-orbit gallium arsenide performance from the LIPS solar cell panel experiment

The LIPS on-orbit performance of the gallium arsenide panel experiment was analyzed from flight operation telemetry data. Algorithms were developed to calculate the daily maximum power and associated solar array parameters by two independent methods. The first technique utilizes a least mean square polynomial fit to the power curve obtained with intensity and temperature corrected currents and voltages; whereas, the second incorporates an empirical expression for fill factor based on an open circuit voltage and the calculated series resistance. Maximum power, fill factor, open circuit voltage, short circuit current and series resistance of the solar cell array are examined as a function of flight time. Trends are analyzed with respect to possible mechanisms which may affect successive periods of output power during 2 years of flight operation. Degradation factors responsible for the on-orbit performance characteristics of gallium arsenide are discussed in relation to the calculated solar cell parameters. Performance trends and the potential degradation mechanisms are correlated with existing laboratory and flight data on both gallium arsenide and silicon solar cells for similar environments.

Francis, R. W.↗

Magellan mission planning and orbital operations

The goal of NASA's Magellan mission is to understand the geological and geophysical processes that have shaped the planet Venus. Through synthetic aperture radar, radiometric, altimetric, and gravity measurements, the scientific community hopes to improve its knowledge of the planet's topography and internal mass distribution. This paper provides an overview of the Magellan mission; describes the spacecraft sequence software design, development, and test; addresses the nominal operational flow of stored sequence design and generation; briefly describes the ground processing of engineering telemetry and imaging data; and then summarizes the Magellan operational experience with non-routine behavior of the spacecraft during the cruise and mapping portions of the prime mission.

Venus↗

Comparative assessment of psychomotor performance - Target prediction by humans and macaques (Macaca mulatta)

Although nonhuman primates such as rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) have been useful models of many aspects of cognition and performance, it has been argued that, unlike humans, they may lack the capacity to respond as predictor-operators. Data from the present series of experiments undermine this claim, suggesting instead a continuity of predictive competency between humans and nonhuman primates. A prediction coefficient was devised to examine the degree to which each subject's response path approximated the optimal predictive strategy. Whereas human subjects (N= 30) generally predicted more accurately, rhesus monkeys (N= 10) also significantly anticipated the movements of the target in all conditions. It appears that humans and rhesus monkeys both exhibit the capacity to respond to where a stimulus is going.

Washburn, David A.↗

Mission Operations and Data Analysis Phase of the SupraThermal through Energetic Particle detector (STEP) of the EPACT experiment on the Wind Spacecraft

Scientific studies of energetic particle populations observed by STEP are summarized. Science highlights cover: upstream He-3 events general upstream events, energy spectra of ions accelerated in impulsive and gradual solar events, impulsive solar particle events, and corotating interaction regions. Bibliographies of journal publications and papers presented at conferences are also provided.

Mason, G. M.↗

Spread and SpreadRecorder An Architecture for Data Distribution

The Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS) project at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been measuring the microgravity environment of the space shuttle, the International Space Station, MIR, sounding rockets, drop towers, and aircraft since 1991. The Principle Investigator Microgravity Services (PIMS) project at NASA GRC has been collecting, analyzing, reducing, and disseminating over 3 terabytes of collected SAMS and other microgravity sensor data to scientists so they can understand the disturbances that affect their microgravity science experiments. The years of experience with space flight data generation, telemetry, operations, analysis, and distribution give the SAMS/ PIMS team a unique perspective on space data systems. In 2005, the SAMS/PIMS team was asked to look into generalizing their data system and combining it with the nascent medical instrumentation data systems being proposed for ISS and beyond, specifically the Medical Computer Interface Adapter (MCIA) project. The SpreadRecorder software is a prototype system developed by SAMS/PIMS to explore ways of meeting the needs of both the medical and microgravity measurement communities. It is hoped that the system is general enough to be used for many other purposes.

Wright, Ted↗

Using Selection Pressure as an Asset to Develop Reusable, Adaptable Software Systems

The Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) at NASA has over the years developed and honed several reusable architectural components for supporting large-scale data centers with a large customer base. These include a processing system (S4PM) and an archive system (S4PA) based upon a workflow engine called the Simple Scalable Script based Science Processor (S4P) and an online data visualization and analysis system (Giovanni). These subsystems are currently reused internally in a variety of combinations to implement customized data management on behalf of instrument science teams and other science investigators. Some of these subsystems (S4P and S4PM) have also been reused by other data centers for operational science processing. Our experience has been that development and utilization of robust interoperable and reusable software systems can actually flourish in environments defined by heterogeneous commodity hardware systems the emphasis on value-added customer service and the continual goal for achieving higher cost efficiencies. The repeated internal reuse that is fostered by such an environment encourages and even forces changes to the software that make it more reusable and adaptable. Allowing and even encouraging such selective pressures to software development has been a key factor In the success of S4P and S4PM which are now available to the open source community under the NASA Open source Agreement

Berrick, Stephen↗

Ares I-X: First Flight of a New Era

Since 2005, NASA s Constellation Program has been designing, building, and testing the next generation of launch and space vehicles to carry humans beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO). The Ares Projects at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) are developing the Ares I crew launch vehicle and Ares V cargo launch vehicle. On October 28, 2009, the first development flight test of the Ares I crew launch vehicle, Ares I-X, lifted off from a launch pad at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on successful suborbital flight. Basing exploration launch vehicle designs on Ares I-X information puts NASA one step closer to full-up "test as you fly," a best practice in vehicle design. Although the final Constellation Program architecture is under review, the Ares I-X data and experience in vehicle design and operations can be applied to any launch vehicle. This paper presents the mission background as well as results and lessons learned from the flight.

Davis, Stephen R.↗

Creating a Voyager Thermal Model 39 Years Into the Flight Mission, Along With Model Correlation and Application

After 39 years of continuous operation in space, the output of the Voyager 1 & 2 spacecraft Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) power systems has decreased to the point where managing the power margin and maintaining thermal control has become increasingly difficult. As the total power dissipation in the bus has decreased, propellant line temperatures and margin above minimum Allowable Flight Temperature (AFT) have decreased, creating risk of the hydrazine freezing (at 1.6°C). This is further complicated by the lack of existing thermal models that can be used to assess propellant tank and line temperatures. In 2014, an effort was begun to create a Voyager spacecraft thermal model for that purpose. A steady-state Thermal Desktop model has been created from scratch over the past two years. Applied Sciences Laboratory (ASL) started the initial thermal model development under contract to Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The effort relied primarily on archived manufacturing drawings, limited documentation, interviews of senior engineers who worked on the Voyager design and implementation, and the experience of the Voyager Flight Operations team. Data from the Voyager System Thermal Vacuum (STV) tests is no longer available, making it necessary to correlate the model to more recent flight data and small in-flight tests. Correlation was achieved to within ±5°C for a hot case and a cold case (both data sets from 2014). However, the flight system has very few temperature sensors directly on propellant lines. Therefore, the task remains to determine how best to use the model, in conjunction with flight data, to make sure the Voyagers can continue to fly successfully.

Ledeboer, William C.↗

Phase II Development of the Surveillance Test Articles to Improve the Design, Fabrication, and Testing

Advanced reactors, such as the molten salt reactor (MSR), require materials that will withstand harsher environments than the materials used for lower temperature water reactors. Materials used in MSR construction need not only withstand elevated temperature, temperature cycling, and neutron radiation, but must be able to withstand the corrosive molten salt environment. Significant materials research has been driven by the materials needs of the MSR due to the harsh environment and the material data requirements to support licensing. Limited operation experience with MSRs has made this challenging work. Information is very limited on materials degradation due to irradiation, molten salt corrosion, elevated temperature, and the resulting fatigue, creep, and creep-fatigue loading during operation. While efforts are underway to better understand the effects of this harsh environment on construction materials, the Advanced Reactors Technologies (ART) Program has been working to develop materials surveillance test articles that could be used in a materials surveillance program and allow for the collection of information on the materials degradation during plant operation and could support timely licensing of these advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

ATS-6 solar cell experiment/improvement

ATS 6 solar cell flight experiment data through 2 years of synchronous orbit operation are presented. Comparisons are made of the performances of the 13 different types of solar cell/cover configurations, including new cover processes and materials, and the COMSAT violet cell. These performances are also compared to the performances of the LES 6 solar cell experiment, the ATS 6 main solar arrays, and the Hughes Aircraft Company solar arrays, and to laboratory spectrum electron irradiations. It was found that the cells of the ATS 6 experiment generally performed as expected through 6 to 9 months in orbit, but that at 2 years they were more severely degraded than expected.

Goldhammer, L. J.↗

ATS-6 solar cell flight experiment through 2 years in orbit

ATS-6 solar cell flight experiment data through 2 years of synchronous orbit operation are presented. Comparisons are made of the performances of the 13 different types of solar cell/cover configurations, including new cover processes and materials, and the Comsat violet cell. These performances are also compared: (1) to the performances of the LES-6 solar cell experiment, the ATS-6 main solar arrays, and the Hughes Aircraft Company solar arrays, and (2) to laboratory spectrum electron irradiations. It was found that the cells of the ATS-6 experiment generally performed as expected through 6 to 9 months in orbit, but that at 2 years they were more severely degraded than expected.

Goldhammer, L. J.↗

Use of a FORTH-based PROLOG for real-time expert systems. 1: Spacelab life sciences experiment application

A real-time expert system is being developed to serve as the astronaut interface for a series of Spacelab vestibular experiments. This expert system is written in a version of Prolog that is itself written in Forth. The Prolog contains a predicate that can be used to execute Forth definitions; thus, the Forth becomes an embedded real-time operating system within the Prolog programming environment. The expert system consists of a data base containing detailed operational instructions for each experiment, a rule base containing Prolog clauses used to determine the next step in an experiment sequence, and a procedure base containing Prolog goals formed from real-time routines coded in Forth. In this paper, we demonstrate and describe the techniques and considerations used to develop this real-time expert system, and we conclude that Forth-based Prolog provides a viable implementation vehicle for this and similar applications.

Paloski, William H.↗