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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing the accuracy of microwave radiometers and radio acoustic sounding systems for wind energy applications

To assess current remote-sensing capabilities for wind energy applications, a remote-sensing system evaluation study, called XPIA (eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrument Assessment), was held in the spring of 2015 at NOAA's Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) facility. Several remote-sensing platforms were evaluated to determine their suitability for the verification and validation processes used to test the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models. The evaluation of these platforms was performed with respect to well-defined reference systems: the BAO's 300 m tower equipped at six levels (50, 100, 150, 200, 250, and 300 m) with 12 sonic anemometers and six temperature ( T ) and relative humidity (RH) sensors; and approximately 60 radiosonde launches. In this study we first employ these reference measurements to validate temperature profiles retrieved by two co-located microwave radiometers (MWRs) as well as virtual temperature ( T v ) measured by co-located wind profiling radars equipped with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs). Results indicate a mean absolute error (MAE) in the temperature retrieved by the microwave radiometers below 1.5 K in the lowest 5?km of the atmosphere and a mean absolute error in the virtual temperature measured by the radio acoustic sounding systems below 0.8 K in the layer of the atmosphere covered by these measurements (up to approximately 1.6-2 km). We also investigated the benefit of the vertical velocity correction applied to the speed of sound before computing the virtual temperature by the radio acoustic sounding systems. We find that using this correction frequently increases the RASS error, and that it should not be routinely applied to all data. Water vapor density (WVD) profiles measured by the MWRs were also compared with similar measurements from the soundings, showing the capability of MWRs to follow the vertical profile measured by the sounding and finding a mean absolute error below 0.5 g m -3 in the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere. However, the relative humidity profiles measured by the microwave radiometer lack the high-resolution details available from radiosonde profiles. Furthermore, an encouraging and significant finding of this study was that the coefficient of determination between the lapse rate measured by the microwave radiometer and the tower measurements over the tower levels between 50 and 300 m ranged from 0.76 to 0.91, proving that these remote-sensing instruments can provide accurate information on atmospheric stability conditions in the lower boundary layer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Improved observations of turbulence dissipation rates from wind profiling radars

Observations of turbulence dissipation rates in the planetary boundary layer are crucial for validation of parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models. However, because dissipation rates are difficult to obtain, they are infrequently measured through the depth of the boundary layer. For this reason, demonstrating the ability of commonly used wind profiling radars (WPRs) to estimate this quantity would be greatly beneficial. During the XPIA field campaign at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory, two WPRs operated in an optimized configuration, using high spectral resolution for increased accuracy of Doppler spectral width, specifically chosen to estimate turbulence from a vertically pointing beam. Multiple post-processing techniques, including different numbers of spectral averages and peak processing algorithms for calculating spectral moments, were evaluated to determine the most accurate procedures for estimating turbulence dissipation rates using the information contained in the Doppler spectral width, using sonic anemometers mounted on a 300 m tower for validation. Furthermore, the optimal settings were determined, producing a low bias, which was later corrected. Resulting estimations of turbulence dissipation rates correlated well ( R 2 = 0.54 and 0.41) with the sonic anemometers, and profiles up to 2 km from the 449 MHz WPR and 1 km from the 915 MHz WPR were observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using optimal estimation to retrieve winds from velocity-azimuth display (VAD) scans by a Doppler lidar

Abstract. Low-powered commercially available coherent Doppler lidar (CDL) wind profilers provide continuous measurement of vertical profiles of wind in the lower troposphere, usually close to or up to the top of the planetary boundary layer. The vertical extent of these wind profiles is limited by the availability of scatterers and thus varies substantially throughout the day and from one day to the next. This makes it challenging to develop continuous products that rely on CDL-observed wind profiles. In order to overcome this problem, we have developed a new method for wind profile retrievals from CDL that combines the traditional velocity-azimuth display (VAD) technique with optimal estimation (OE) to provide continuous wind profiles up to 3 km. The new method exploits the level-to-level covariance present in the wind profile to fill in the gaps where the signal-to-noise ratio of the CDL return is too low to provide reliable results using the traditional VAD method. Another advantage of the new method is that it provides the full error covariance matrix of the solution and profiles of information content, which more easily facilitates the assimilation of the observed wind profiles into numerical weather prediction models. This method was tested using yearlong CDL measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in 2019. Comparison with the ARM operational CDL wind profile product and collocated radiosonde wind measurements shows excellent agreement (R2>0.99) with no degradation in results where the traditional VAD provided a valid solution. In the region where traditional VAD does not provide results, the OE wind speed and wind vector have uncertainties of 3.44 and 4.33 m s−1, respectively. As a result, the new method provides additional information over the standard technique and increases the effective range of existing CDL systems without the need for additional hardware.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Generating wind power scenarios for probabilistic ramp event prediction using multivariate statistical post-processing

Wind power forecasting is gaining international significance as more regions promote policies to increase the use of renewable energy. Wind ramps, large variations in wind power production during a period of minutes to hours, challenge utilities and electrical balancing authorities. A sudden decrease in wind-energy production must be balanced by other power generators to meet energy demands, while a sharp increase in unexpected production results in excess power that may not be used in the power grid, leading to a loss of potential profits. In this study, we compare different methods to generate probabilistic ramp forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model with up to 12h of lead time at two tall-tower locations in the United States. We validate model performance using 21 months of 80m wind speed observations from towers in Boulder, Colorado, and near the Columbia River gorge in eastern Oregon. We employ four statistical post-processing methods, three of which are not currently used in the literature for wind forecasting. These procedures correct biases in the model and generate short-term wind speed scenarios which are then converted to power scenarios. This probabilistic enhancement of HRRR point forecasts provides valuable uncertainty information of ramp events and improves the skill of predicting ramp events over the raw forecasts. We compute Brier skill scores for each method with regard to predicting up- and down-ramps to determine which method provides the best prediction. We find that the Standard Schaake shuffle method yields the highest skill at predicting ramp events for these datasets, especially for up-ramp events at the Oregon site. Increased skill for ramp prediction is limited at the Boulder, CO, site using any of the multivariate methods because of the poor initial forecasts in this area of complex terrain. These statistical methods can be implemented by wind farm operators to generate a range of possible wind speed and power scenarios to aid and optimize decisions before ramp events occur.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

TROPoe retrievals from SGP C1

The TROPoe (formerly called AERIoe) algorithm (Turner and Löhnert 2014, 2021; Turner and Blumberg 2019) retrieves profiles of temperature and water vapor mixing ratio, together with cloud properties for a single-layer cloud (i.e., LWP, effective radius), from AERI-observed infrared radiance spectrum. The data can be used to characterize the evolution of the planetary boundary layer and boundary layer clouds. This data set was collected at the ARM SGP Central Facility (CF) during and after the MicroPulse DIAL Demonstration (MPDDEMO) field campaign. The TROPoe retrieval was run at 5-minute resolution, but retrievals can be performed at the maximum temporal resolution of the AERI instrument (order 30 s) -- if this higher temporal resolution is desired, please contact Dave Turner. This is a physical-iterative retrieval method. The retrieval of thermodynamic profiles from spectral infrared radiance observations is an ill-posed problem, and thus constraints need to be included in the retrieval algorithm to provide physically plausible results. Here, we use a climatology of radiosonde profiles collected at the ARM SGP site during the summer as our prior information in an optimal estimation framework. Surface meteorology and output from the rapid-refresh (RAP) numerical weather prediction model (above 4 km) were used as additional constraints by the retrieval. As the method uses an optimal estimation framework, a full error covariance matrix of each solution is included in the output file. The 1-sigma uncertainty of each retrieved variable, which is derived from the error covariance matrix, is included for each scientific field and is named "sigma_X", where "X" is the name of the scientific field (e.g., 'temperature'). The information content in the AERI observations, which is in the "dfs" field, on the thermodynamic profiles is primarily concentrated in the lowest 3 km or up to cloud base; the retrieved data should not be used above that level (or used with caution). There is an overall "qc_flag" field that is set when a retrieval should not be trusted. However, the logic that sets this flag did not work correctly, and it should not be used. Instead, consider all retrievals that have a value for "converged_flag" greater than 0 as valid. If you have any questions, contact Dave Turner. This is Release_2_12 of the TROPoe algorithm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Remote sensing of atmospheric temperature profiles with the Nimbus 5 microwave spectrometer

The paper discusses the accuracy of atmospheric vertical temperature profile measurements performed by the Nimbus 5 microwave spectrometer and compares results obtained during the first 6 months of its operation with independent ground-truth measurements (coincident radiosonde measurements). The microwave spectrometer can measure temperature profiles averaged over the instrument weighting function (about 10 km) layers with a root-mean-square accuracy of a few tenths of a degree K for measurement integration times of 16 s. Lower tropospheric temperature data from the spectrometer measurements is used in the numerical weather prediction model of the National Meteorological Center.

Waters, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The measurement of winds over the ocean from Skylab with application to measuring and forecasting typhoons and hurricanes

On Skylab, a combination microwave radar-radiometer (S193) made measurements in a tropical hurricane (AVA), a tropical storm, and various extratropical wind systems. The winds at each cell scanned by the instrument were determined by objective numerical analysis techniques. The measured radar backscatter is compared to the analyzed winds and shown to provide an accurate method for measuring winds from space. An operational version of the instrument on an orbiting satellite will be able to provide the kind of measurements in tropical cyclones available today only by expensive and dangerous aircraft reconnaissance. Additionally, the specifications of the wind field in the tropical boundary layer should contribute to improved accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts made with numerical weather predictions models currently being applied to the tropical atmosphere.

Cardone, V. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Airline flight planning - The weather connection

The history of airline flight planning is briefly reviewed. Over half a century ago, when scheduled airline services began, weather data were almost nonexistent. By the early 1950's a reliable synoptic network provided upper air reports. The next 15 years saw a rapid growth in commercial aviation, and airlines introduced computer techniques to flight planning. The 1970's saw the development of weather satellites. The current state of flight planning activities is analyzed. It is found that accurate flight planning will require meteorological information on a finer scale than can be provided by a synoptic forecast. Opportunities for a new approach are examined, giving attention to the available options, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, limited area fine mesh models, man-computer interactive display systems, the use of interactive techniques with the present upper air data base, and the implementation of interactive techniques.

Steinberg, R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A further study of spectral energetics in the winter atmosphere

The contributions of standing (time-mean) and transient (time-departure) waves to the atmospheric spectral energetics are analyzed using the NMC (National Meteorological Center) data of winter 1976-1977. It is found that the standing long waves are responsible for the major horizontal sensible heat transport and also for the significant horizontal momentum transport. Furthermore, the major contents of eddy available energy and eddy kinetic energy of standing waves are in the long-wave regime. However, the spectral energetics analysis indicates that the standing long waves are energetically less efficient than the transient long and short waves. It is suggested that the lower efficiency of the standing long waves in the atmospheric energetics may be one of the physical factors causing the underforecast of the standing long waves in the numerical weather prediction models.

Chen, T.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Winds over the ocean as measured by the scatterometer on Seasat

An analysis is presented of the relative accuracy of Seasat scatterometer measurements of the wind speeds and directions at 19.5 m altitude as compared to ground truth measurements taken by surface ships and instrumented buoys. Attention is given to the JASIN, QE II, and GOASEX surface data. The validity of 2-30 min averages taken from surface stations spread out over a wide area and serving as a basis for defining wind field averages over the 50 km resolution of SASS is examined. Satisfactory wind speeds were found to be available from SASS readings in the wind speed range 6-14 m/sec. The use of 25 SASS readings around a grid point was determined to reduce scatter to 0.25 m/sec when used in numerical weather prediction modeling. Improvements to the SASS techniques by the Seasat successor, NOSS, are discussed, and inclusion of momentum, heat, and water turbulent fluxes by NOSS is noted.

Pierson, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Mathematical algorithms to maximize performance in numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction models, which involve the solution of non-linear partial differential equations at points on an extensive three dimensional grid, are ideally suited for processing on vector machines. It was logical therefore that the new global forecast model to be implemented at the Meteorological Office should be written in vector code for the CYBER 205. In order to achieve full efficiency and to reduce storage requirements the model used 32-bit arithmetic which was found to provide high enough precision. Unfortunately, however, the trigonometrical and logarithmic functions provided by CDC could only handle 64-bit vectors and, although written in efficient scalar code, did not take advantage of the special facilities of a vector processor. It was therefore necessary to rewrite the functions in vector code to handle both 32 and 64-bit vectors. There was also no half-precision compiler available for the Cyber 205 at that time and so the functions, like the model, had to make extensive use of the special call syntax. This made the code more difficult to write but it allowed much greater flexibility in that it became possible to access the exponent of a floating-point number independently of its coefficient. A description is given of the technique and the results which were achieved are summarized.

Foreman, A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1984

MERIT - A new approach to upper air forecasting for aviation

The development of a man/computer data enhancement and management system to provide very-short range upper air forecasts is examined. The forecast accuracy and precision problems encountered with the current numerical weather prediction models are discussed. The proposed system is to utilize both radiosonde data and automated pilot reports and provide a 2-12 hour analysis/forecast with a 3 hour forecast cycle. The minimum energy routes using interactive techniques (MERIT) system is described and a diagram is povided. The preliminary testing of a modified MERIT system reveals that the system is not as accurate as the Spectral 12 hour forecast, but is more accurate than the spectral 24 hour forecast. The coplete testing and validation of the MERIT system is required before a comparison with present techniques is possible.

Steinberg, R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The impact of Seasat-A scatterometer data on the numerical prediction of the Queen Elizabeth II storm

The development of the Queen Elizabeth II storm from 1200 UT on September 9, 1978, to 0000 UT on September 11, 1978, is forecast with a limited-area, fine resolution (100 km) numerical weather prediction model. Forecasts from initial conditions that include and exclude Seasat scatterometer surface winds are performed. When the Seasat winds are allowed to influence the upper levels of the atmosphere, a large positive impact is found.

Duffy, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS1986

High spatial resolution passive microwave sounding systems

Two extensive series of flights aboard the ER-2 aircraft were conducted with the MIT 118 GHz imaging spectrometer together with a 53.6 GHz nadir channel and a TV camera record of the mission. Other microwave sensors, including a 183 GHz imaging spectrometer were flown simultaneously by other research groups. Work also continued on evaluating the impact of high-resolution passive microwave soundings upon numerical weather prediction models.

Staelin, D. H.↗