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At least 217 records · Page 12

NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection↗

Effects of natural zeolites on field-scale geologic noble gas transport

Improving predictive models for noble gas transport through natural materials at the field-scale is an essential component of improving US nuclear monitoring capabilities. Several field-scale experiments with a gas transport component have been conducted at the Nevada National Security Site (Non-Proliferation Experiment, Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment). However, the models associated with these experiments have not treated zeolite minerals as gas adsorbing phases. This is significant as zeolites are a common alteration mineral with a high abundance at these field sites and are shown here to significantly fractionate noble gases during field-scale transport. This fractionation and associated retardation can complicate gas transport predictions by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio to the detector (e.g. mass spectrometers or radiation detectors) enough to mask the signal or make the data difficult to interpret. Omitting adsorption-related retardation data of noble gases in predictive gas transport models therefore results in systematic errors in model predictions where zeolites are present.Herein is presented noble gas adsorption data collected on zeolitized and non-zeolitized tuff. Experimental results were obtained using a unique piezometric adsorption system designed and built for this study. Data collected were then related to pure-phase mineral analyses conducted on clinoptilolite, mordenite, and quartz. These results quantify the adsorption capacity of materials present in field-scale systems, enabling the modeling of low-permeability rocks as significant sorption reservoirs vital to bulk transport predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Background Concentrations of Argon-39 in Shallow Soil Gas

While radioisotopes of noble gases are known to be indicators of underground nuclear explosions (UNE), McIntyre et al. (2017) was the first to report the presence of 39Ar in shallow soil gas in association with a decades old UNE. While this finding hinted at the potential application of 39Ar to be used as an indicator of an UNE, doing so would also require an understanding of the natural concentrations of 39Ar present in soil gas. Without knowing the expected range and variability of naturally occurring concentrations of 39Ar, it is difficult to determine what measured concentrations would be indicative of an elevated concentration. This paper presents results from 16 soil gas samples and three atmospheric air samples collected from various locations across the western United States. Shallow soil gas samples were collected into self-contained underwater breathing apparatus (SCUBA) tanks using a custom-built soil gas sampling system and then processed and analyzed for 39Ar. The measured concentrations of 39Ar varied from atmospheric air concentrations to about 3.5 times atmospheric air concentrations. The variation in concentration was primarily attributed to the latitude the sample was collected at, which was consistent with previous work (Johnson et al. 2015). The results presented here represent the first measurements of natural background 39Ar concentrations in shallow soil gas. This data will be necessary if 39Ar is to be used as an indicator of UNE.

Fritz, Brad G.↗

Modeling of fission and activation products in molten salt reactors and their potential impact on the radionuclide monitoring stations of the International Monitoring System

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are one of six Generation IV reactor designs currently under development around the world. Because of the unique operating conditions of MSRs, which include molten fuel and the continuous removal of gaseous fission products during operation, work was performed to analyze the potential impact of emissions on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Simulations were performed to predict the production of IMS-relevant radionuclides in four MSR designs operating under two scenarios: (1) a sealed reactor with releases only during operational shutdown, and (2) continuous reprocessing or sparging of the fuel salt. From these production estimates the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were extracted and compared to three current reactor designs (Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), BWR, RBMK). In cases where continuous reprocessing of the fuel salt occurred, both the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were nearly indistinguishable from a nuclear explosion. Estimates were also made of the potential emission rate of radioxenon for three reactor designs and it was found that MSRs have the potential to emit radioxenon isotopes at a rate of 10^15-8×10^16 Bq/d for 133Xe if no abatement is used. An assessment was made of activation products using a candidate fuel salt (FLiBe) mixed with corrosion products for the Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR-LF1).

Johnson, Christine M.↗

Deployment of portable, modular gas samplers as part of an atmospheric tracer experiment

Underground nuclear explosions release noble gases into the atmosphere that can be detected to support international monitoring efforts. Atmospheric transport models help predict the movement of these gases over long distances, but struggle to predict the movement in the atmosphere local to the release. A field experiment was designed to monitor the movement of 127 Xe within a 5-km radius. Four gas samplers were deployed as part of this experiment to collect atmospheric samples at various distances from the release point. In conclusion, these samples were then analyzed in a near-field lab using a NaI detector and in an off-site lab using gamma-gamma coincidence and beta-gamma coincidence counting.

Radioxenon↗

Assessing the vulnerability of solar inverters to EMPs: Port testing, PCI modeling, and protection strategies

Renewable energy sources are becoming an ever-larger contributor to the power grid. These renewable energy sources depend upon the power electronic devices, specifically inverters, being essential for connecting Photovoltaic (PV) generation to the grid. However, the Electromagnetic Pulses (EMPs) caused by the high-altitude nuclear explosions can generate fast broad-band pulses with nanosecond rise time, potentially causing damage or destruction to electronic components. To assess the vulnerability of PV inverters to high-altitude EMPs, the port testing and Pulsed Current Injection (PCI) modeling schemes are proposed based on the port impedance analysis. Wide-band frequency measurements are achieved by fusing impedance results from three vector network analyzers. Then, a PCI model is used to simulate the induced response to EMP, with two typical immunity levels of EC5 and EC8 tested. Here, the experiment successfully excites the induced voltage and current under EMP, where the voltage and current can reach 1500V/40A and 8000V/150Aunder EC5 andEC8, respectively. The port vulnerability analysis results demonstrate that only some ports can survive under EC5. To defend against the impact of EMP, three protection strategies are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The AtmoSOFAR Channel: First Direct Observations of an Elevated Acoustic Duct

The Sound Fixing and Ranging (SOFAR) channel in the ocean allows for low frequency sound to travel thousands of kilometers, making it particularly useful for detecting underwater nuclear explosions. Suggestions that an elevated SOFAR-like channel should exist in the stratosphere date back over half a century and imply that sources within this region can be reliably sensed at vast distances. However, this theory has not been supported with evidence of direct observations from sound within this channel. Here we show that an infrasound sensor on a solar hot air balloon recorded the first infrasound detection of a ground truth airborne source while within this acoustic channel, which we refer to as the AtmoSOFAR channel. Our results support the existence of the AtmoSOFAR channel, demonstrate that acoustic signals can be recorded within it, and provide insight into the characteristics of recorded signals. Results also show a lack of detections on ground-based stations, highlighting the advantages of using balloon-borne infrasound sensors to detect impulsive sources at altitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of volcanic tuff pores pre- and post-underground nuclear detonation using ultra-small and small angle neutron scattering

The ability to accurately model the subsurface transport of radionuclides is fundamental to the remote detection and characterization of underground nuclear explosion (UNE) events. Developing more sophisticated transport models presents a significant opportunity to enhance monitoring capabilities, particularly in the reliable prediction of signature migration. Experimentally determined characterization of geologic materials associated with transport properties is the pertinent base information for such robust model development and calibration. Here, we report results from an unprecedented study demonstrating changes to the pore and fracture network structures in geological materials in response to UNEs over nanometer to micrometer length scales. Volcanic tuffs of five different lithological formations from pre- and post-UNE environments were collected from the Nevada National Security Site. Combined ultra-small and small-angle neutron scattering techniques were used to characterize the tuff pore structure. The results demonstrate measurable differences in the specific surface area and porosity of samples pre- and post-shot from texturally similar lithological formations, indicating that pore properties can serve as a direct physical signature of a UNE. The results also provide experimentally determined transport parameters in support of advanced model development through the integration of gas migration, hydrodynamic simulations, and geologic framework models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Characteristics of Multistory Buildings

In order to evaluate unit stresses or to estimate possible damage in multistory buildings from earthquake or ground motion from underground nuclear explosion it is essential to determine how much of the dynamic response at any level is due to various types of freedom. The effects of shear deformation between floors, joint rotation, over-all flexure, and ground compliance are considered. Joint rotation and over-all flexure are evaluated over a wide range of building characteristics with simply determined indices. Further, a period synthesis concept and a pseudo-stiffness procedure are proposed to enable the determination of periods, mode shapes and stiffnesses with consideration of joint rotation, over-all flexure and ground compliance while performing simple labor-saving analyses for assumed rigid-floor shear buildings. The first three modes of vibration are considered in elastic free vibration. The buildings and models are symmetric in plan without torsional coupling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Space to Air High-Altitude Region Adjoint Neutron Transport

Neutrons from an atmospheric nuclear explosion can be detected by sensors in orbit. Current tools for characterizing the neutron energy spectrum assume a known source and use forward transport to recreate the detector response. In realistic scenarios the true source is unknown, making this an inefficient, iterative approach. In contrast, the adjoint approach directly solves for the source spectrum, enabling source reconstruction. The time–energy fluence at the satellite and adjoint transport equation allow a Monte Carlo method to characterize the neutron source’s energy spectrum directly in a new model: the Space to High-Altitude Region Adjoint (SAHARA) model. A new adjoint source event estimator was developed in SAHARA to find feasible solutions to the neutron transport problem given the constraints of the adjoint environment. This work explores SAHARA’s development and performance for mono-energetic and continuous neutron energy sources. In general, the identified spectra were shifted towards energies approximately 5% lower than the true source spectra, but SAHARA was able to capture the correct spectral shapes. Continuous energy sources, including real-world sources Fat Man and Little Boy, resulted in identifiable spectra that could have been produced by the same distribution as the true sources as demonstrated by two-dimensional (2D) Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests.

LaMere, Zachary W.↗

Local-Distance Seismic Event Relocation and Relative Magnitude Estimation, Applications to Mining Related Seismicity in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

Recent efforts to characterize small ( M w < 3 ) seismic events at local distances have become more important because of the increased observation of human-triggered and induced seismicity and the need to advance nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities. The signals generated by low-magnitude seismic sources necessitate the use of nearby short-period observations, which are sensitive to local geological heterogeneity. Local to near-regional distance ( < 300 km ) surface and shear waves can dominate short-period observations from small, shallow seismic sources. In this work, we utilize these observations to estimate precise, relative locations and magnitudes of ~ 700 industrial mining events in Wyoming, using nearly 360,000 observations. The precise, relative location estimates (with formal location uncertainty estimates of less than 1 km) collapse a diffuse collection of mining events into discrete clusters associated with individual blasting operations. We also invert the cross-correlation amplitudes to estimate precise, relative moment magnitude estimates, which help validate and identify disparities in the event sizes reported by regional network catalogs. Joint use of multiple phases allows for the inclusion of more seismic events due to the increase in the number of observations. In some cases, using a single phase allowed us to relocate only 50% of the original reported seismic events within a cluster. Combining shear- and surface-wave phases increased the number of events to above 90% of the original events, allowing us to characterize a broader range of event sizes, source to station distances, and event distributions. This analysis takes a step toward making a fuller characterization of small industrial seismic events observed at local distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A New Decade in Seismoacoustics (2010–2022)

Several sources of interest often generate both low‐frequency acoustic and seismic signals due to energy propagation through the atmosphere and the solid Earth. Seismic and acoustic observations are associated with a wide range of sources, including earthquakes, volcanoes, bolides, chemical and nuclear explosions, ocean noise, and others. The fusion of seismic and acoustic observations contributes to a better understanding of the source, both in terms of constraining source location and physics, as well as the seismic to acoustic coupling of energy. Here in this review, we summarize progress in seismoacoustic data processing, including recent developments in open‐source data availability, low‐cost seismic and acoustic sensors, and large‐scale deployments of collocated sensors from 2010 to 2022. Similarly, we outline the recent advancements in modeling efforts for both source characteristics and propagation dynamics. Finally, we highlight the advantages of fusing multiphenomenological signals, focusing on current and future techniques to improve source detection, localization, and characterization efforts. This review aims to serve as a reference for seismologists, acousticians, and others within the growing field of seismoacoustics and multiphenomenology research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Crustal and Upper Mantle Structure of the Middle East and Southwest Asia for Improved Waveform Simulations Using Openly Available Broadband Data

Here we present a new model of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds for the crust and upper mantle of a broad region of the Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESWA) derived from adjoint waveform tomography. The new model enables fully 3D simulations of complete three-component waveforms and provides improved fits that were not possible with previous models. We inverted over 32,000 waveforms from 192 earthquakes recorded by over 1000 openly available broadband seismic stations from permanent and temporary networks in the region with highly uneven coverage. Inversion iterations proceeded from the period band 50–100 s in six stages and 54 total iterations reducing the minimum period to 30 s. Our final model, MESWA, improves waveform fits compared to the starting and other models for both the data used in the inversion and an independent validation set of 66 events. Restitution tests indicate that the model resolves features in the central part of the model to depths of about 150 km. The new model reveals tectonic features imaged by other studies and methods but in a new holistic model of anisotropic shear and compressional wavespeeds (V S and V P , respectively) covering a larger domain with smaller scale length and amplified features. Examples include low crustal V S in the Tethyan belt and low mantle VS following divergent (Gulf of Aden, Red Sea) and transform (Dead Sea fault) margins of the Arabian plate. Low V S is imaged below Cenozoic volcanic centers of the Mecca–Madina–Nafud Line, Arabian Peninsula, and the Türkiye–Iran border region. Elevated V S tracks Makran subduction under southeast Iran with near vertical dip. MESWA could be used as a starting model for further improvements, say, using waveforms from in-country seismic networks that are not currently openly available and/or smaller-scale studies targeting a shorter period. The model could be used to improve earthquake hazard studies and nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Improved Regional Moment Tensor Inversion for Moderately Large Earthquakes in the Western United States Using a 3D Earth Model Based on Full Waveform Tomography

The nature of seismic sources for moderately large (moment magnitude, M w 5.0–6.5) events are commonly characterized by their moment tensor (MT) solutions and obtained by inversion of regional distance (200–1600 km) long‐period (20–50 s) waveforms. Regional MT estimates are often calculated from average plane‐layered, one‐dimensional (1D) velocity models. However, 1D model calculations can produce misfits in the arrival times and waveform shapes that introduce errors, particularly at longer distances or for shorter periods, which are necessary for analyzing lower magnitude events. Approximate Earth models (e.g., 1D) representing broad areas may be inadequate, particularly in the crust and uppermost mantle of tectonically complex regions. In this study, we show how a three‐dimensional (3D) Earth model obtained from full waveform inversion tomography can improve waveform fits and decrease phase errors. We developed a platform and workflow to perform routine 3D MT inversions and inverted MTs for 25 earthquakes in the western United States and seven nuclear explosions using an average 1D and a recent 3D Earth model, WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022). Using the 3D model improves waveform fits (variance reduction and phase time shifts) compared with the 1D model, and the 3D MT solutions are stable across large distances. This study shows that 3D models obtained from full waveform tomography can improve MTs and source characterization especially at far regional distances (>800 km).

Geosciences↗

Challenges and Opportunities in Turning Large U.S. Archives of Analog Seismograms into a Modern Usable Resource

Abstract Quantitative seismology is based firmly on the analysis of actual ground motions, and the transition to digital recording in the 1980s enabled sophisticated new capabilities to extract useful results from waveforms. With some effort, these tools can also be applied to analog records. Focusing on assets available within U.S. institutions, we review the necessary steps and the challenges in enabling “data rescue”—that is, preserving the scientific information latent in large analog seismogram archives and making it usable. They include: determining what assets are available (the analog seismogram archives held by various institutions, with associated metadata on instrument responses, station locations, and timing information); developing a consensus on the top level of a triage process (which analog records most definitely should be rescued?); deciding the level of quality needed in copying original seismograms to media suitable for digitizing; assessing the relative merits of scanning and digitizing; and, the need for a community service in distributing scans and digital records, as they accumulate. The necessary level of effort can benefit from practical experience. For example, specific studies have used digitized versions of analog recordings to model earthquake sources and assess seismic hazard. Other studies have used them to gain experience with nuclear explosion signals recorded at regional distances, noting that regional signals enable explosions to be monitored down to levels much lower than those attainable teleseismically. The opportunities presented by large archives of analog seismograms include the insights they present to current and future seismologists studying earthquakes and explosions, into the practical areas of assessing seismic hazard, monitoring for test ban compliance down to low explosion yields—and prompt characterization of actual explosions should they occur, as well the traditional academic pursuit of a better understanding of earthquake physics.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Determining Stress Orientation in Rock Valley, Nevada, Using Ambient Seismic Noise

The stress field and the mechanical properties of rocks are important to consider for nuclear explosion monitoring due to their effect on seismic wave radiation from earthquakes and explosions. At the Rock Valley Direct Comparison site, the regional orientation of the maximum horizontal compressive stress (SH max ) is well constrained, but it is unknown whether there are local heterogeneities. Here, I show that stress-induced anisotropy in nonlinear elasticity can be used to estimate the orientation of SH max . Rocks have compliant internal contacts, such as fractures and mineral grain boundaries, that respond to applied strains more strongly than individual mineral crystals. This strain response is asymmetric between compressive and dilatational strains and is affected by anisotropy in the ambient stress field. Traditional seismic velocity measurements are of strain-averaged velocity, which is less sensitive than nonlinear elasticity to the behavior of compliant internal contacts and therefore the stress field and fracture behavior. My results show that the orientation of SH max measured using ambient seismic noise aligns with regional estimates, with some heterogeneity that can also be explained by the limitations of the seismic array. I demonstrate the potential of a passive technique for monitoring the stress field in places that currently lack local measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Regional Source-Type Discrimination Using Nonlinear Alignment Algorithms

The discrimination problem in seismology aims to accurately classify different underground source types based on local, regional, and/or teleseismic observations of ground motion. Typical discriminant approaches are rooted in fundamental, physics-based differences in radiation pattern or wave excitation, which can be frequency-dependent and may not make use of the full waveform. In this article, we explore whether phase and amplitude distances derived from dynamic time warping (DTW) and elastic shape analysis (ESA) can inform event discrimination. We demonstrate the ability to distinguish underground point sources using synthetic waveforms calculated for a 1D Earth model and various source mechanisms. We then apply the method to recorded data from events in the Korean Peninsula, which includes declared nuclear explosions, a collapse event, and naturally occurring earthquakes. Phase and amplitude distances derived from DTW and ESA are then used to classify the event types via dendrogram and k-nearest-neighbor clustering analyses. Using information from the full waveform, we show how different underground sources can be distinguished at regional distances. We highlight the potential of these nonlinear alignment algorithms for discrimination and comment on ways we can extend the framework presented here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗