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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Recurrent convolutional neural networks for modeling nonadiabatic dynamics of quantum-classical systems

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have recently been extensively applied to model the time evolution in fluid dynamics, weather predictions, and even chaotic systems due to their ability to capture temporal dependencies and sequential patterns in data. Here we present an RNN model based on convolutional neural networks for modeling the nonlinear nonadiabatic dynamics of hybrid quantum-classical systems. The dynamical evolution of the hybrid systems is governed by equations of motion for classical degrees of freedom and von Neumann equation for electrons. The Physics-Aware Recurrent Convolution (PARC) neural network structure incorporates a differentiator-integrator architecture that inductively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of generic physical systems. Here, we apply our RNN approach to learn the space-time evolution of a one-dimensional semiclassical Holstein model after an interaction quench. For shallow quenches (small changes in electron-lattice coupling), the deterministic dynamics can be accurately captured using a single-CNN-based recurrent network. In contrast, deep quenches induce chaotic evolution, making long-term trajectory prediction significantly more challenging. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that the PARC-CNN architecture can effectively learn the statistical climate of the Holstein model under deep-quench conditions.

Holstein model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Averse Bi-Level Stochastic Network Interdiction Model for Cyber-Security Risk Management

Security of cyber networks is crucial; recent severe cyber-attacks have had a devastating effect on many large organizations. The attack graph, which maps the potential attack paths of a cyber network, is a popular tool for analyzing cyber system vulnerability. In this study, we propose a bi-level stochastic network interdiction model on an attack graph to enable a risk-averse, resource constrained cyber network defender to optimally deploy security countermeasures that protect against attackers with an uncertain budget. This risk- averse conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected maximum loss over all scenarios and the expected maximum loss from the most damaging attack scenarios. We develop a customized constraint and column generation algorithm to solve our model as well as several acceleration techniques to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the acceleration techniques enable the solution of relatively large problems within a reasonable amount of time: applying all the acceleration techniques also reduces the average computation time of the basic algorithm by 71% for 100-node graphs. Using metrics called mean-risk value of stochastic solution and value of risk-aversion, computational results suggest that our stochastic risk-averse model significantly outperforms deterministic and risk-neutral models when 1) the distribution of attacker budget is heavy-right-tailed and 2) the defender is highly risk-averse.

Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A Closed Network Queue Model of Underground Coal Mining Production, Failure, and Repair

Underground coal mining system production, failures, and repair cycles were mathematically modeled as a closed network of two queues in series. The model was designed to better understand the technological constraints on availability of current underground mining systems, and to develop guidelines for estimating the availability of advanced mining systems and their associated needs for spares as well as production and maintenance personnel. It was found that: mine performance is theoretically limited by the maintainability ratio, significant gains in availability appear possible by means of small improvements in the time between failures the number of crews and sections should be properly balanced for any given maintainability ratio, and main haulage systems closest to the mine mouth require the most attention to reliability.

Lohman, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Algorithms for Performance, Dependability, and Performability Evaluation using Stochastic Activity Networks

Modeling tools and technologies are important for aerospace development. At the University of Illinois, we have worked on advancing the state of the art in modeling by Markov reward models in two important areas: reducing the memory necessary to numerically solve systems represented as stochastic activity networks and other stochastic Petri net extensions while still obtaining solutions in a reasonable amount of time, and finding numerically stable and memory-efficient methods to solve for the reward accumulated during a finite mission time. A long standing problem when modeling with high level formalisms such as stochastic activity networks is the so-called state space explosion, where the number of states increases exponentially with size of the high level model. Thus, the corresponding Markov model becomes prohibitively large and solution is constrained by the the size of primary memory. To reduce the memory necessary to numerically solve complex systems, we propose new methods that can tolerate such large state spaces that do not require any special structure in the model (as many other techniques do). First, we develop methods that generate row and columns of the state transition-rate-matrix on-the-fly, eliminating the need to explicitly store the matrix at all. Next, we introduce a new iterative solution method, called modified adaptive Gauss-Seidel, that exhibits locality in its use of data from the state transition-rate-matrix, permitting us to cache portions of the matrix and hence reduce the solution time. Finally, we develop a new memory and computationally efficient technique for Gauss-Seidel based solvers that avoids the need for generating rows of A in order to solve Ax = b. This is a significant performance improvement for on-the-fly methods as well as other recent solution techniques based on Kronecker operators. Taken together, these new results show that one can solve very large models without any special structure.

Deavours, Daniel D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Software cost/resource modeling: Deep space network software cost estimation model

A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for JPL deep space network (DSN) data systems implementation tasks is presented. The resource estimation model incorporates principles and data from a number of existing models, such as those of the General Research Corporation, Doty Associates, IBM (Walston-Felix), Rome Air Force Development Center, University of Maryland, and Rayleigh-Norden-Putnam. The model calibrates task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software lifecycle statistics. The estimation model output scales a standard DSN work breakdown structure skeleton, which is then input to a PERT/CPM system, producing a detailed schedule and resource budget for the project being planned.

Tausworthe, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model metamers reveal divergent invariances between biological and artificial neural networks

Deep neural network models of sensory systems are often proposed to learn representational transformations with invariances like those in the brain. To reveal these invariances, we generated ‘model metamers’, stimuli whose activations within a model stage are matched to those of a natural stimulus. Metamers for state-of-the-art supervised and unsupervised neural network models of vision and audition were often completely unrecognizable to humans when generated from late model stages, suggesting differences between model and human invariances. Targeted model changes improved human recognizability of model metamers but did not eliminate the overall human–model discrepancy. The human recognizability of a model’s metamers was well predicted by their recognizability by other models, suggesting that models contain idiosyncratic invariances in addition to those required by the task. Metamer recognizability dissociated from both traditional brain-based benchmarks and adversarial vulnerability, revealing a distinct failure mode of existing sensory models and providing a complementary benchmark for model assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

pyflowline: a mesh-independent river network generator for hydrologic models

River networks are crucial in hydrologic and Earth system models. Accurately representing river networks in spatially distributed hydrologic models requires considering the model's spatial discretization and computational mesh. However, current methods of generating river networks for hydrologic models do not typically support unstructured meshes. Unstructured meshes offer numerous advantages over traditional, structured meshes. To overcome this limitation, we developed PyFlowline, a Python package that generates mesh-independent river networks. With PyFlowline, hydrologic modelers can generate conceptual river networks and their topological relationships for both structured and unstructured meshes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics of a cost-effective blood test for colorectal cancer screening

Background: Blood-based biomarker tests can potentially change the landscape of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We characterize the conditions under which blood test screening would be as effective and cost-effective as annual fecal immunochemical testing or decennial colonoscopy. Methods: We used the 3 Cancer Information and Surveillance Modeling Network–Colon models to compare scenarios of no screening, annual fecal immunochemical testing, decennial colonoscopy, and a blood test meeting Centers for Medicare & Medicaid (CMS) coverage criteria (74% CRC sensitivity and 90% specificity). We varied the sensitivity to detect CRC (74%-92%), advanced adenomas (10%-50%), screening interval (1-3 years), and test cost ($25-$500). Primary outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained from screening and costs for a US average-risk cohort of individuals aged 45 years. Results: Annual fecal immunochemical testing yielded 125-163 QALY gained per 1000 at a cost of 3811-5384 dollars per person, whereas colonoscopy yielded 132-177 QALY gained at a cost of 5375-7031 dollars per person. A blood test with 92% CRC sensitivity and 50% advanced adenoma sensitivity yielded 117-162 QALY gained if used every 3 years and 133-173 QALY gained if used every year but would not be cost-effective if priced above $$125 per test. If used every 3 years, a $500 blood test only meeting CMS coverage criteria yielded 83-116 QALY gained at a cost of $8559-$9413 per person. Conclusion: Blood tests that only meet CMS coverage requirements should not be recommended to patients who would otherwise undergo screening by colonoscopy or fecal immunochemical testing because of lower benefit. Blood tests need higher advanced adenoma sensitivity (above 40%) and lower costs (below $125) to be cost-effective.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

SBML Level 3: an extensible format for the exchange and reuse of biological models

Systems biology has experienced dramatic growth in the number, size, and complexity of computational models. To reproduce simulation results and reuse models, researchers must exchange unambiguous model descriptions. We review the latest edition of the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML), a format designed for this purpose. A community of modelers and software authors developed SBML Level 3 over the past decade. Its modular form consists of a core suited to representing reaction-based models and packages that extend the core with features suited to other model types including constraint-based models, reaction-diffusion models, logical network models, and rule-based models. The format leverages two decades of SBML and a rich software ecosystem that transformed how systems biologists build and interact with models. More recently, the rise of multiscale models of whole cells and organs, and new data sources such as single-cell measurements and live imaging, has precipitated new ways of integrating data with models. We provide our perspectives on the challenges presented by these developments and how SBML Level 3 provides the foundation needed to support this evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

A feedback control model for network flow with multiple pure time delays

A control model describing a network flow hindered by multiple pure time (or transport) delays is formulated. Feedbacks connect each desired output with a single control sector situated at the origin. The dynamic formulation invokes the use of differential difference equations. This causes the characteristic equation of the model to consist of transcendental functions instead of a common algebraic polynomial. A general graphical criterion is developed to evaluate the stability of such a problem. A digital computer simulation confirms the validity of such criterion. An optimal decision making process with multiple delays is presented.

Press, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Minimax Network Flow Model for Characterizing the Impact of Slot Restrictions

This paper proposes a model for evaluating long-term measures to reduce congestion at airports in the National Airspace System (NAS). This model is constructed with the goal of assessing the global impacts of congestion management strategies, specifically slot restrictions. We develop the Minimax Node Throughput Problem (MINNTHRU), a multicommodity network flow model that provides insight into air traffic patterns when one minimizes the worst-case operation across all airports in a given network. MINNTHRU is thus formulated as a model where congestion arises from network topology. It reflects not market-driven airline objectives, but those of a regulatory authority seeking a distribution of air traffic beneficial to all airports, in response to congestion management measures. After discussing an algorithm for solving MINNTHRU for moderate-sized (30 nodes) and larger networks, we use this model to study the impacts of slot restrictions on the operation of an entire hub-spoke airport network. For both a small example network and a medium-sized network based on 30 airports in the NAS, we use MINNTHRU to demonstrate that increasing the severity of slot restrictions increases the traffic around unconstrained hub airports as well as the worst-case level of operation over all airports.

Lee, Douglas W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Many but not all deep neural network audio models capture brain responses and exhibit correspondence between model stages and brain regions

Models that predict brain responses to stimuli provide one measure of understanding of a sensory system and have many potential applications in science and engineering. Deep artificial neural networks have emerged as the leading such predictive models of the visual system but are less explored in audition. Prior work provided examples of audio-trained neural networks that produced good predictions of auditory cortical fMRI responses and exhibited correspondence between model stages and brain regions, but left it unclear whether these results generalize to other neural network models and, thus, how to further improve models in this domain. We evaluated model-brain correspondence for publicly available audio neural network models along with in-house models trained on 4 different tasks. Most tested models outpredicted standard spectromporal filter-bank models of auditory cortex and exhibited systematic model-brain correspondence: Middle stages best predicted primary auditory cortex, while deep stages best predicted non-primary cortex. However, some state-of-the-art models produced substantially worse brain predictions. Models trained to recognize speech in background noise produced better brain predictions than models trained to recognize speech in quiet, potentially because hearing in noise imposes constraints on biological auditory representations. The training task influenced the prediction quality for specific cortical tuning properties, with best overall predictions resulting from models trained on multiple tasks. The results generally support the promise of deep neural networks as models of audition, though they also indicate that current models do not explain auditory cortical responses in their entirety.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning of networked spreading models from noisy and incomplete data

Recent years have seen a lot of progress in algorithms for learning parameters of spreading dynamics from both full and partial data. Some of the remaining challenges include model selection under the scenarios of unknown network structure, noisy data, missing observations in time, as well as an efficient incorporation of prior information to minimize the number of samples required for an accurate learning. Here, in this work, we introduce a universal learning method based on a scalable dynamic message-passing technique that addresses these challenges often encountered in real data. The algorithm leverages available prior knowledge on the model and on the data, and reconstructs both network structure and parameters of a spreading model. We show that a linear computational complexity of the method with the key model parameters makes the algorithm scalable to large network instances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Validation of a Command and Control Traffic Detection Model

Network intrusion detection systems (NIDS) are commonly used to detect malware communications, including command-and-control (C2) traffic from botnets. NIDS performance assessments have been studied for decades, but mathematical modeling has rarely been used to explore NIDS performance. This paper details a mathematical model that describes a NIDS performing packet inspection and its detection of malware's C2 traffic. Here, the paper further describes an emulation testbed and a set of cyber experiments that used the testbed to validate the model. These experiments included a commonly used NIDS (Snort) and traffic with contents from a pervasive malware (Emotet). Results are presented for two scenarios: a nominal scenario and a “stressed” scenario in which the NIDS cannot process all incoming packets. Model and experiment results match well, with model estimates mostly falling within 95 % confidence intervals on the experiment means. Model results were produced 70-3000 times faster than the experimental results. Consequently, the model's predictive capability could potentially be used to support decisions about NIDS configuration and effectiveness that require high confidence results, quantification of uncertainty, and exploration of large parameter spaces. Furthermore, the experiments provide an example for how emulation testbeds can be used to validate cyber models that include stochastic variability.

mathematical model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regulating Gas Transport in Molecularly Engineered Polymer Membranes (Final Technical Report)

Energy-efficient separation processes are essential for a wide range of applications ranging from clean fuels (e.g., hydrogen purification) and petroleum refining (e.g., natural gas processing) to water purification and carbon capture. Membrane-mediated separations have shown tremendous promise in providing high productivity and high separation efficiency at significantly lower energy consumption, e.g., up to 90% less energy cost than traditional thermally driven processes such as distillation. Polymeric membranes–the dominant separation membrane materials–have yet to reach their full potential due to their limitations in long-term durability (e.g., productivity loss over the period of their lifetime due to physical aging) or insufficient stability under harsh conditions (e.g., high temperature, chemically complex feeds). This research seeks to establish a new paradigm in polymer membrane material design by harnessing crosslinked model networks with well-defined yet finely tailorable microstructure to facilitate fast and selective gas transport and simultaneously enhance membrane stability. Unlike traditional randomly crosslinked polymers, which suffer from structural inconsistencies and consequently suboptimal gas separation performance, crosslinked model network membranes prepared via a precisely controlled end-linking process enables the creation of previously unattainable microstructure tunability, which, in turn, results in versatile crosslinked membranes with high separation performance that meet the needs of various challenging gas separations. Using model network framework as a fundamental tool by applying this concept in diverse polymer categories, this work has led to the development of various innovative crosslinked membrane structures such as unimodal, bimodal and clustered model networks. These advanced crosslinked polymer membranes not only demonstrate exceptional gas separation performance that significantly outperform existing randomly crosslinked membranes, but also possess excellent long-term durability and robust stability under complex operating conditions. From a fundamental perspective, results from this research provide critical mechanistic insights into gas separation in crosslinked polymer membranes, addressing key knowledge gaps and opening new avenues for membrane design to meet various separation needs. The new membrane materials produced from this research enable the use of polymeric membranes for high temperature gas separations, offering substantial energy and cost savings by eliminating the need for repeated cooling-heating cycles in industrial processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRS1997

The ASAC Flight Segment and Network Cost Models

To assist NASA in identifying research art, with the greatest potential for improving the air transportation system, two models were developed as part of its Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC Flight Segment Cost Model (FSCM) is used to predict aircraft trajectories, resource consumption, and variable operating costs for one or more flight segments. The Network Cost Model can either summarize the costs for a network of flight segments processed by the FSCM or can be used to independently estimate the variable operating costs of flying a fleet of equipment given the number of departures and average flight stage lengths.

Kaplan, Bruce J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical methods and neural network approaches for classification of data from multiple sources

Statistical methods for classification of data from multiple data sources are investigated and compared to neural network models. A problem with using conventional multivariate statistical approaches for classification of data of multiple types is in general that a multivariate distribution cannot be assumed for the classes in the data sources. Another common problem with statistical classification methods is that the data sources are not equally reliable. This means that the data sources need to be weighted according to their reliability but most statistical classification methods do not have a mechanism for this. This research focuses on statistical methods which can overcome these problems: a method of statistical multisource analysis and consensus theory. Reliability measures for weighting the data sources in these methods are suggested and investigated. Secondly, this research focuses on neural network models. The neural networks are distribution free since no prior knowledge of the statistical distribution of the data is needed. This is an obvious advantage over most statistical classification methods. The neural networks also automatically take care of the problem involving how much weight each data source should have. On the other hand, their training process is iterative and can take a very long time. Methods to speed up the training procedure are introduced and investigated. Experimental results of classification using both neural network models and statistical methods are given, and the approaches are compared based on these results.

Benediktsson, Jon Atli↗