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At least 217 records · Page 12

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Inertia Emulation Control using Demand Response via 5G Communications

Building energy equipment is moving rapidly towards Internet of Things (IoT)-driven devices to provide consumer connectivity and device management. These device-level interfaces along with 5G communications will be leveraged to develop control architectures to engage a large number of monitoring and control devices and provide real-time and reliable energy services. Emerging 5G networks have high potential to provide the communication technology for demand response, with fast transfer speed, high reliability, and high number of connections. Guaranteed inertial response to limit frequency fluctuations is one of the main challenges in modern power systems due to the increased penetration of renewable generation, and it is largely affected by communication delays and packet losses. This paper analyzes inertial response and rate of change of frequency in a power system model with inverter-interfaced air conditioners. The control loop considers time delays and packet losses to show the need to switch to 5G networks in future smart grids.

Morovati, Samaneh↗

Complementing Dynamical Downscaling With Super‐Resolution Convolutional Neural Networks

Despite advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods for climate downscaling, significant challenges remain for their practicality in climate research. Current AI-methods exhibit notable limitations, such as limited application in downscaling Global Climate Models (GCMs), and accurately representing extremes. To address these challenges, we implement an AI-based methodology using super-resolution convolutional neural networks (SRCNN), trained and evaluated on 40 years of daily precipitation data from a reanalysis and a high-resolution dynamically downscaled counterpart. The dynamical downscaled simulations, constrained using spectral nudging, enable the replication of historical events at a higher resolution. This allows the SRCNN to emulate dynamical downscaling effectively. Modifications, such as incorporating elevation data and data pre-processing enhances overall model performance, while using exponential and quantile loss functions improve the simulation of extremes. Our findings show SRCNN models efficiently and skillfully downscale precipitation from GCMs. Future work will expand this methodology to downscale additional variables for future climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stiffness anisotropy coordinates supracellular contractility driving long-range myotube-ECM alignment

The ability of cells to organize into tissues with proper structure and function requires the effective coordination of proliferation, migration, polarization, and differentiation across length scales. Skeletal muscle is innately anisotropic; however, few biomaterials can emulate mechanical anisotropy to determine its influence on tissue patterning without introducing confounding topography. Here, we demonstrate that substrate stiffness anisotropy coordinates contractility-driven collective cellular dynamics resulting in C2C12 myotube alignment over millimeter-scale distances. When cultured on mechanically anisotropic liquid crystalline polymer networks (LCNs) lacking topography, C2C12 myoblasts collectively polarize in the stiffest direction. Cellular coordination is amplified through reciprocal cell-ECM dynamics that emerge during fusion, driving global myotube-ECM ordering. Conversely, myotube alignment was restricted to small local domains with no directional preference on mechanically isotropic LCNs of the same chemical formulation. These findings provide valuable insights for designing biomaterials that mimic anisotropic microenvironments and underscore the importance of stiffness anisotropy in orchestrating tissue morphogenesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient Reinforcement Learning for Real-Time Hardware-Based Energy System Experiments: Preprint

In the context of urgent climate challenges and the pressing need for rapid technology development, Reinforcement Learning (RL) stands as a compelling data-driven method for controlling real-world physical systems. However, RL implementation often entails time-consuming and computationally intensive data collection and training processes, rendering them inefficient for real-time applications that lack non-real-time models. To address these limitations, real-time emulation techniques have emerged as valuable tools for the lab-scale rapid prototyping of intricate energy systems. While emulated systems offer a bridge between simulation and reality, they too face constraints, hindering comprehensive characterization, testing, and development. In this research, we construct a surrogate model using limited data from simulated systems, enabling an efficient and effective training process for a Double Deep Q-Network (DDQN) agent for future deployment. Our approach is illustrated through a hydropower application, demonstrating the practical impact of our approach on climate-related technology development.

deep Q-learning↗

Improving Frequency Stability and Minimizing Load Shedding Events by Adopting Grid-Scale Energy Storage with Grid Forming Inverters

The upward adoption trend of renewable generation not only means cleaner energy integrated into modern power grids, but also that most new generation sources are based on front-end inverter bridges, used as interfaces to most wind generation and all the solar PV. It is well known that due to their power electronics-based construction rather than rotational shafts, these sources do not provide inertia inherently, nor substantial amounts of short-circuit currents. However, stable energy such as what can be stored in energy storage systems, although interfaced via inverters, can be controlled to respond to system disturbances in a manner that emulates inertial behavior. This paper focuses on the application of such energy storage systems to augment inertia in the island of Puerto Rico. To do so, a user defined inverter model that contains grid forming capabilities and fast frequency response is modeled and integrated into the real transmission system in power flow and dynamics software. Energy storage is then connected to two selected areas so that it not only provides frequency regulation to avoid widespread load shedding events, but also other tangible benefits. The simulated cases suggest that even relatively small energy storage systems can avert load shedding events if adequately placed in the transmission network.

Grid-forming inverters, IBR, Inertia↗

Iterative sampling of expensive simulations for faster deep surrogate training

Deep neural network (DNN) surrogates of expensive physics simulations are enabling a rapid change in the way that common experimental design and analysis tasks are approached. Surrogate models allow simulations to be performed in parallel and separately from downstream tasks, thereby enabling analyses that would be impossible with the simulation in-the-loop; surrogates based on DNNs can effectively emulate diverse non-scalar data of the types collected in fusion and laboratory-astrophysics experiments. The challenge is in training the surrogate model, for which large ensembles of physics simulations must be run, preferably without wasting computational effort on uninteresting simulations. Here, in this paper, we present an iterative sampling scheme that can preferentially propose simulations in interesting regions of parameter space without neglecting unexplored regions, allowing high-quality and wide-ranging surrogate models to be trained using 2–3 times fewer simulations compare to space-filling designs. Our approach uses an explicit importance function defined on the simulation output space, balanced against a measure of simulation density which serves as a proxy for surrogate accuracy. It is easy to implement and can be tuned to find interesting simulations early in the study, allowing surrogates to be trained quickly and refined as new simulations become available; this represents an important step towards the routine generation of deep surrogate models quickly enough to be truly relevant to experimental work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deep Learning Explicit Differentiable Predictive Control Laws for Buildings

We present a differentiable predictive control (DPC) methodology for learning constrained control laws for unknown nonlinear systems. DPC poses an approximate solution to multiparametric programming problems emerging from explicit nonlinear model predictive control (MPC). Contrary to approximate MPC, DPC does not require supervision by an expert controller. Instead, a system dynamics model is learned from a small dataset of recorded observations of the perturbed system's dynamics and the control law is optimized offline by interaction with the learned system model. The DPC method is based on two sequential steps, i) system identification using a constrained neural state-space model, and ii) optimization of an explicit control law parametrized by another neural network in closed-loop simulation with the identified neural state-space model. The combination of a differentiable closed-loop system and penalty methods for constraint handling of system outputs and inputs allows us to optimize the control law's parameters directly by backpropagating economic MPC loss through the learned system model. By incorporating domain knowledge and leveraging established techniques from optimal control, our method leverages deep neural networks as nonlinear function approximators for system identification and control while avoiding concomitant costs of intractably large datasets, and computationally expensive over-parametrized models. The scalability, data efficiency, and constrained optimal control capability of the proposed DPC method are demonstrated in simulation using a multi-zone building emulator.

Drgona, Jan↗

Cyber Protection of Grid-Connected Devices Through Embedded Online Security

Cybersecurity research regarding the electric power grid has primarily been focused on protecting the communication layer of grid-connected devices against cyber-attack threats. Although many developed methods have greatly reduced the effects of a cyber-attack on the vulnerabilities of grid-connected devices, discovering new vulnerabilities is inevitable and a constant threat. As a result, the overall reliability and security of network communications with regard to grid-connected devices is a concern. Here, this paper proposes a method that further secures a system by focusing on the control and hardware layer of grid-connected devices. The device’s controller firmware will be validated and authenticated using integrated device emulation resources prior to being activated to control the grid-connected device. This verification process is performed while the controller is online and actively controlling power flows related to the device. Therefore, an attack to the system through a malicious firmware patch would be detected by the online security and rejected while safely maintaining continuous and stable control of the device. This method integrates the concepts of firmware hot-patching, digital twins, and active monitoring into an overall cybersecurity protection system.

cybersecurity↗

FIREWHEEL

SAND2024-16910O FIREWHEEL is a tool for experiment orchestration that assists a user in building and controlling repeatable experiments of distributed network systems at any scale. This version also includes FIREWHEEL v2.7 and its associated companion model components. With FIREWHEEL, users can easily construct modular parts of a cyber system, called Model Components. The Model Components can be combined to form an experiment. Most experiments are then instantiated using an emulation tool, such as minimega.

Kajder, Thomas↗

Digital Twin of an ANPC inverter with integrated Design-For-Trust

Reducing costs and increasing manufacturing output while creating reliable products are three essential components needed to keep a business competitive. In the past, having an asset that could address these three challenges at the same time would be challenging. However, recent advances in computer processing capabilities coupled with increases to network speeds allowed such a system to become possible; and this is known as a Digital Twin (DT), which represents a virtual copy of a production system or a product. Here, this work exhibits a DT application of an Active Neutral Point Clamped (ANPC) inverter using a controller. The controller emulates the ANPC responses of a new Digital Signal Processing (DSP) firmware and validates this new firmware by using Design-For-Trust (DFTr) characteristics. If the new firmware is malicious, then it should be rejected, thus adding preemptive protection measures for inverter based distributed energy resources.

cybersecurity↗

Exponential Backoff and Its Security Implications for Safety-Critical OT Protocols over TCP/IP Networks

The convergence of Operational Technology (OT) and Information Technology (IT) networks has become increasingly prevalent with the growth of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) applications. This shift, while enabling enhanced automation, remote monitoring, and data sharing, also introduces new challenges related to communication latency and cybersecurity. Oftentimes, legacy OT protocols were adapted to the TCP/IP stack without an extensive review of the ramifications to their robustness, performance, or safety objectives. To further accommodate the IT/OT convergence, protocol gateways were introduced to facilitate the migration from serial protocols to TCP/IP protocol stacks within modern IT/OT infrastructure. However, they often introduce additional vulnerabilities by exposing traditionally isolated protocols to external threats. This study investigates the security and reliability implications of migrating serial protocols to TCP/IP stacks and the impact of protocol gateways, utilizing two widely used OT protocols: Modbus TCP and DNP3. Our protocol analysis finds a significant safety-critical vulnerability resulting from this migration, and our subsequent tests clearly demonstrate its presence and impact. A multi-tiered testbed, consisting of both physical and emulated components, is used to evaluate protocol performance and the effects of device-specific implementation flaws. Through this analysis of specifications and behaviors during communication interruptions, we identify critical differences in fault handling and the impact on time-sensitive data delivery. The findings highlight how reliance on lower-level IT protocols can undermine OT system resilience, and they inform the development of mitigation strategies to enhance the robustness of industrial communication networks.

DNP3↗

Uncertainty bounds for multivariate machine learning predictions on high-strain brittle fracture

Simulation of the crack network evolution on high strain rate impact experiments performed in brittle materials is very compute-intensive. The cost increases even more if multiple simulations are needed to account for the randomness in crack length, location, and orientation, which is inherently found in real-world materials. Constructing a machine learning emulator can make the process faster by orders of magnitude. There has been little work, however, on assessing the error associated with their predictions. Estimating these errors is imperative for meaningful overall uncertainty quantification. In this work, we extend the heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates to bound a multiple output machine learning emulator. Overall, we find that the response prediction is accurate within its predicted errors, but with a somewhat conservative estimate of uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Phase dynamics in an AC-driven multiterminal Josephson junction analog

In the presence of an AC drive, multiterminal Josephson junctions exhibit the inverse AC Josephson effect, where the oscillations of the superconducting phase of each junction can lock onto one another or onto the external drive. The competition between these different phase-locked states results in a complex array of quantized voltage plateaus whose stability strongly depend on the circuit parameters of the shunted junctions. This phase diagram cannot be explored with low-temperature transport experiments alone, given the breadth of the parameter space, so we present an easily tunable analog circuit whose dynamical properties emulate those of a three-terminal junction. We focus on the observation of the multiterminal inverse AC Josephson effect, and we discuss how to identify Shapiro steps associated with each of the three junctions as well as their quartet states. We only observe integer phase-locked states in strongly overdamped networks, but fractional Shapiro steps appear as well when the quality factor of the junctions increases. Finally, we discuss the role of transverse coupling in the synchronization of the junctions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interrogating biomineralization one amino acid at a time: amplification of mutational effects in protein-aided titania morphogenesis through reaction-diffusion control

To emulate the control that biomineralizing organisms exert over reactant transport, we construct a countercurrent reaction-diffusion chamber in which an agarose hydrogel regulates the fluxes of inorganic precursor and precipitating solid-binding protein. Furthermore, we show that the morphology of the bioprecipitated titania can be changed from monolithic to interconnected particle networks and dispersed nanoparticles either by decreasing reaction time or by increasing agarose weight percentage at constant precursor and protein concentrations. More strikingly, protein variants with one or two substitutions in their metal oxide-binding domain yield unique peripheral morphologies (needles, threads, plates, and peapods) with distinct crystallography and photocatalytic activity. Our results suggest that diffusional control can magnify otherwise subtle mutational effects in biomineralizing proteins and provide a path for the green synthesis of morphologically and functionally diverse inorganic materials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Module-OT: A Hardware Security Module for Operational Technology

Increased penetration levels of renewable energy and other types of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the modern electric grid-combined with technological advancements for electric system monitoring and control-introduce new cyberattack vectors and increase the cyberattack surface of energy systems. According to the IEEE Std. 1547-2018, DERs must use Modbus, Distributed Network Protocol 3 (DNP3), or Smart Energy Profile 2.0 (SEP2) as their communication protocol. Previous research identified several vulnerabilities and security breaches in each one of these communication protocols; despite this, existing standards for DERs do not recommend cybersecurity measures. In order to reduce vulnerabilities in power distribution systems, this paper presents a novel open-source hardware security module that improves both information and operational security to better protect data and communications on the distribution grid. The security hardware is called “module for operational technology,” or simply Module-OT, and it has been validated and tested in an emulated distribution system application. Module-OT is integrated within a communication system in the transport layer of the Open Systems Interconnection (OSI) model. It improves system security through encryption, authentication, authorization, certificate management, and user access control. The main advancement of Module-OT is the addition of hardware cryptographic acceleration that improves the overall communication performance in terms of end-to-end latency.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep Generative Modeling of Periodic Variable Stars Using Physical Parameters

The ability to generate physically plausible ensembles of variable sources is critical to the optimization of time domain survey cadences and the training of classification models on data sets with few to no labels. Traditional data augmentation techniques expand training sets by reenvisioning observed exemplars, seeking to simulate observations of specific training sources under different (exogenous) conditions. Unlike fully theory-driven models, these approaches do not typically allow principled interpolation nor extrapolation. Moreover, the principal drawback of theory-driven models lies in the prohibitive computational cost of simulating source observables from ab initio parameters. In this work, we propose a computationally tractable machine learning approach to generate realistic light curves of periodic variables capable of integrating physical parameters and variability classes as inputs. Our deep generative model, inspired by the transparent latent space generative adversarial networks, uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture with temporal convolutional network layers, trained using the OGLE-III optical light curves and physical characteristics (e.g., effective temperature and absolute magnitude) from Gaia DR2. A test using the temperature–shape relationship of RR Lyrae demonstrates the efficacy of our generative “physics-enhanced latent space VAE” (PELS-VAE) model. Such deep generative models, serving as nonlinear nonparametric emulators, present a novel tool for astronomers to create synthetic time series over arbitrary cadences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗