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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of a Model Predictive Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature Inside Plug-Flow Solar Reactor With Countercurrent Flow

Abstract Solar-driven thermochemical energy storage systems are proven to be promising energy carriers (solar fuels) to utilize solar energy by using reactive solid-state pellets. However, the production of solar fuel requires a quasi-steady-state process temperature, which represents the main challenge due to the transient nature of solar power. In this work, an adaptive model predictive controller (MPC) is presented to regulate the temperature inside a tubular solar reactor to produce solid-state solar fuel for long-term thermal storage systems. The solar reactor system consists of a vertical tube heated circumferentially over a segment of its length by concentrated solar power, and the reactive pellets (MgMn2O4) are fed from the top end and flow downwards through the heated tube. A countercurrent flowing gas supplied from the lower end interacts with flowing pellets to reduce it thermochemically at a temperature range of 1000—1500 °C. A low-order physical model was developed to simulate the dynamics of the solar reactor including the reaction kinetics, and the proposed model was validated numerically by using a 7-kW electric furnace. The numerical model then was utilized to design the MPC controller, where the control system consists of an MPC code linked to an adaptive system identification code that updates system parameters online to ensure system robustness against external disturbances (sudden change in the flow inside the reactor), model mismatches, and uncertainty. The MPC controller parameters are tuned to enhance the system performance with minimum steady-state error and overshoot. The controller is tested to track different temperature ranges between 500 °C and 1400 °C with different particles/gas mass flowrates and ramping temperature profiles. Results show that the MPC controller successfully regulated the reactor temperature within ± 1 °C of its setpoint and maintained robust performance with minimum input effort when subjected to sudden changes in the amount of flowing media and the presence of chemical reaction.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive models enhance feedstock quality of corn stover via air classification

Feedstock heterogeneity is a fundamental obstacle to cost-competitive biobased products. Agricultural products like corn stover have anatomical components that vary in their chemical composition, mechanical properties, structure, and response to chemical and biological treatments. A technique that can enrich streams in select anatomical fractions would allow a tailored deconstruction approach to increase overall process efficiency. Air classification can be leveraged for such refining, however, fundamental characterization and understanding of the particle properties that underly the physics of air classification are only modestly documented. Here, we determine fundamental particle properties including mass-to-area ratio, drag coefficient, and partition velocity that describe how anatomical tissues of corn stover behave during air classification. In this work, mass-to-area ratios of anatomical tissues vary by nearly two orders of magnitude from 2.3 mg/mm 2 for cob to 0.04 mg/mm 2 for leaf. Drag coefficients of longer, fibrous materials (i.e., rind, husk, and sheath) are shown to correlate with particle area (p-value < 0.001) whereas granular tissues (i.e., cob, pith, and leaf) correlate better with mass-to-area ratio (p-values < 0.001). When compared to experimental observations, a simulated two-stage air classification and size reduction scenario predicts the overall partitioning of anatomical tissues within 15% for pith, husk, rind, and cob tissues. The model predicts an air-classified fraction preferentially enriched in cob (purity = 20%), rind (purity = 74%), and pith (purity = 4.5%) with a mass yield of 47%. Empirical relations for these properties can be used to predict the partitioning of corn stover during air classification based on anatomical type and size.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Predictive Control for a Grid-interactive Efficient Thermal Storage-integrated Heat Pump System

Building heating and cooling systems can be used to overcome the mismatch between the intermittent supply of renewable power and the fluctuating demand for electricity. A novel underground thermal energy storage integrated with a dual-source heat pump has been proposed to mitigate the mismatch while meeting the thermal demand of buildings efficiently. Conventional thermostat control with heuristic rules cannot provide intelligent decisions to maximize the thermal efficiency and flexibility of the proposed system. Advanced control strategies like model predictive control (MPC) have provided a new paradigm for grid-interactive efficient building operation with the advancement of computation and sensing. This study developed an MPC for the proposed system to provide grid service for Demand Side Management and minimize the operating cost of building owners. A control-oriented dynamic model of the proposed system has been developed. Given an objective function and proper constraints, an optimization problem is formulated to determine the optimal control strategy of the system. Dynamic Programming is adopted to solve the optimization problem. A rule-based control (RBC) is also developed to achieve similar goals. Short-term simulations are conducted to compare the system performance resulting from the two controls. The simulation results indicate that the MPC performs more intelligently than the RBC in charging thermal energy storage and selecting heat pump sources by taking advantage of the predicted cooling demands of the building and the performance of the integrated system. As a result, the MPC could save energy and reduce operating costs compared with the RBC. A case study shows that, for a 3-day operation, the MPC saves 36.9% energy and reduces 38.5% operating cost compared with the RBC.

Shi, Liang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonization of heat pump dual fuel systems using a practical model predictive control: Field demonstration in a small commercial building

In the transition from fossil fuel to electrified heating, a concerning trend is emerging in certain regions of the US. Owners of buildings with gas-based systems leave them in place after adding heat pumps (HPs). Existing control solutions for these hybrid (dual fuel) systems are rudimentary and fall short of realizing the full carbon reduction potential of these systems. Model predictive control (MPC) is often regarded as the benchmark for achieving optimal control in integrated systems. However, in the case of small-medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), the control and communication infrastructure required to facilitate the implementation of such advanced controls is often lacking. This paper presents a field implementation of easy-to-deploy MPC for a dual fuel heating system consisting of HPs and a gas-fired furnace (GF) for SMCBs. The control system is deployed on an open-source middleware platform and utilizes low-cost sensor devices to be used for real SMCBs without major retrofits. Here, we demonstrated this MPC in a real office building with 5 HPs and 1 GF for 2 months. The test results showed that MPC reduced 27% of cost while completely eliminating GF usage by shifting 23% of the thermal load from occupied-peak time to non-occupied-non-peak times.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cooperative Model Predictive Control Scheme for Dispersed Smart Inverters at the Grid Edge

Growing number of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires cutting-edge control schemes to ensure uniform but not identical involvement of DERs to address rapid fluctuations on voltage of the grid clusters. Designing such control schemes for a grid with high penetration of DERs connected various clusters is complex and depends on physical configuration of the clusters themselves. This paper proposes a two-layered cooperative model predictive control scheme for fleet of dispersed smart inverters connected to a three-phase grid cluster located at the edge of a grid cluster. The upper layer of the controller ensures cooperative operation of fleet of smart inverters to perform voltage regulation and address voltage fluctuations in the grid cluster; while the lower level controller guarantees each individual inverter obeys the dictated references for active/reactive powers by the upper layer controller. In addition, the proposed twolayered controller has low voltage ride through (LVRT) capability to support the grid clusters during voltage sags. By employing the proposed control approach, the smart inverters will inject desired active/reactive powers based on circumstance of the entire cluster while guaranteeing proper power curtailment among the generation units. The control scheme is verified by simulation.

Fard, Amin Y.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Modeling of NOx Emissions from Lean Direct Injection of Hydrogen and Hydrogen/Natural Gas Blends Using Flame Imaging and Machine Learning

This research paper explores the use of machine learning to relate images of flame structure and luminosity to measured NOx emissions. Images of reactions produced by 16 aero-engine derived injectors for a ground-based turbine operated on a range of fuel compositions, air pressure drops, preheat temperatures and adiabatic flame temperatures were captured and postprocessed. The experimental investigations were conducted under atmospheric conditions, capturing CO, NO and NOx emissions data and OH* chemiluminescence images from 27 test conditions. The injector geometry and test conditions were based on a statistically designed test plan. These results were first analyzed using the traditional analysis approach of analysis of variance (ANOVA). The statistically based test plan yielded 432 data points, leading to a correlation for NOx emissions as a function of injector geometry, test conditions and imaging responses, with 70.2% accuracy. As an alternative approach to predicting emissions using imaging diagnostics as well as injector geometry and test conditions, a random forest machine learning algorithm was also applied to the data and was able to achieve an accuracy of 82.6%. This study offers insights into the factors influencing emissions in ground-based turbines while emphasizing the potential of machine learning algorithms in constructing predictive models for complex systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller for Multiple Degrees of Freedom Wave Energy Converters with Non-Ideal Power Take-Off

An increase in wave energy converter (WEC) efficiency requires not only consideration of the nonlinear effects in the WEC dynamics and the power take-off (PTO) mechanisms, but also more integrated treatment of the whole system, i.e., the buoy dynamics, the PTO system, and the control strategy. It results in an optimization formulation that has a nonquadratic and nonstandard cost functional. This article presents the application of real-time nonlinear model predictive controller (NMPC) to two degrees of freedom point absorber type WEC with highly nonlinear PTO characteristics. The nonlinear effects, such as the fluid viscous drag, are also included in the plant dynamics. The controller is implemented on a real-time target machine, and the WEC device is emulated in real-time using the WECSIM toolbox. The results for the successful performance of the design are presented for irregular waves under linear and nonlinear hydrodynamic conditions.

Haider, Ali S. (ORCID:0000000246513157)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonlinear model predictive control for mode‐switching operation of reversible solid oxide cell systems

Abstract Solid oxide cells (SOCs) are a promising dual‐mode technology for the production of hydrogen through high‐temperature water electrolysis, and the generation of power through a fuel cell reaction that consumes hydrogen. Switching between these two modes as the price of electricity fluctuates requires reversible SOC operation and accurate tracking of hydrogen and power production set points. Moreover, a well‐functioning control system is important to avoid cell degradation during mode‐switching operation. In this article, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to an SOC module and supporting equipment and compare NMPC performance to classical proportional‐integral (PI) control strategies, while switching between the modes of hydrogen and power production. While both control methods provide similar performance across various metrics during mode switching, NMPC demonstrates a significant advantage in reducing cell thermal gradients and curvatures (mixed spatial‐temporal partial derivatives), thereby helping to mitigate long‐term degradation.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust hierarchical dispatch for residential distribution network management considering home thermal flexibility and model predictive control

In the transactive energy (TE) paradigm, the devices of participative consumers, or prosumers, may be aggregated and employed to drive operational objectives at the network level. Home heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in particular are well-suited to modulate their behaviours based on both home thermal flexibility and requests from the utility grid. This paper develops a robust, hierarchical power dispatch scheme in the context of a residential distribution network. The formulation couples a unique, multiphase linear distribution optimal power flow (OPF) at the upper level with model predictive control (MPC)-based HVAC fleet controllers at the lower level. The proposed approach is tested on nearly 2000 homes with a three-phase distribution network in an intraday market setting, where two major applications are explored and analysed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control-Based Trajectory Shaper for Safe and Efficient Adaptive Cruise Control

Recent studies show that commercially-available adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems are string-unstable, indicating that ACC-driven vehicles amplify speed fluctuations from downstream traffic and induce stop-and-go waves. Moreover, it is challenging to revise the original control algorithm of an ACC system to achieve string stability due to its internal complexity and powertrain uncertainties. To achieve desired control performance given a string-unstable ACC system and circumvent revising the original control algorithm, this study proposes a model predictive control-based trajectory shaper (MPC-TS), which only modifies the sensor-measured trajectory information (i.e., position and speed) of the preceding vehicle. The proposed MPC-TS leverages the input shaping technique to generate reference trajectory to improve string stability, while incorporating tracking errors and vehicle acceleration/deceleration magnitude in the MPC cost function and constraining fluctuations of vehicle speed and spacing to ensure desired car-following performance. Numerical experiments validate the control performance of ACC with the proposed MPC-TS in terms of string stability, safety, traffic efficiency, and comfort.

Zhou, Anye↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control for matrix converter operating in current control mode with load current estimation

A matrix converter system operating in current control mode is provided. The matrix converter includes a switching matrix coupled between a low voltage side and a high voltage side, wherein the matrix converter is coupled at its low voltage side to a generator for receiving an input power including an input current and transforming the input power into an output power at its high voltage side, wherein a load is coupled to the high voltage side. The control system includes a load observer and a model predictive controller (MPC). The load observer is configured to estimate a load current that flows to the load from the high voltage side of the matrix converter as a function of a switching state of the switching matrix, an output voltage output at the high voltage side of the matrix converter, and the input current. The MPC is configured to select the switching state of the switching matrix to meet one or more control objectives defined by minimization of a multi-objective function that tracks the output voltage and the input current using the estimated load current.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

$Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$ form factors from lattice QCD and standard-model predictions for $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$⁢𝜇 + ⁢𝜇 − and $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$⁢𝛾 decays

We present the first lattice QCD determination of the $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$ vector, axial-vector, and tensor form factors, which are relevant for the theory of rare decays including $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$⁢ℓ + ⁢ℓ − and $Ξ$ 𝑏 → $Ξ$⁢𝛾. The calculation is performed with 2+1 flavors of domain-wall fermions at three different lattice spacings and pion masses in the range from approximately 430 to 230 MeV. The bottom quark is implemented using an anisotropic clover action. Three-point functions with a wide range of source-sink separations and model averaging are used to extract the ground-state contributions. We fit the dependence of the form factors on the momentum transfer, the pion mass, and the lattice spacing using modified 𝑧 expansions that account for subthreshold branch cuts, and apply dispersive bounds and asymptotic behavior constraints to achieve controlled uncertainties in the full semileptonic kinematic region. Using our form factor results, we present standard model predictions for the $Ξ$$^{−}_{𝑏}$ → $Ξ$ − ⁢𝛾 and $Ξ$$^{−}_{𝑏}$ → $Ξ$ − ⁢𝜇 + ⁢𝜇 − branching fractions and two angular observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model predictive control for voltage restoration in microgrids using temporal logic specifications

Power system operation will encounter numerous voltage variabilities as the proliferation of renewable energy continues. Real-time monitoring and communication technologies can potentially improve voltage stability by enabling the rapid detection of voltage deviations and the implementation of corrective actions. These corrective actions will only be effective in restoring stability if they are chosen in a timely and scalable manner. This paper considers the problem of power systems’ load voltage control in order to simultaneously address both magnitude and time voltage specifications. In order to comply with grid codes and avoid unnecessary relay protection actions, a model predictive control (MPC)-based control strategy employing temporal logic specifications (TLSs) is proposed. The TLSs strategy is introduced as a formalism to control the voltage variation at a critical load bus against operational bounds over time. The control objective is to schedule optimal control input signals from the available supportive energy storage systems, which provide reactive power injections, leading to satisfying the specified finite-time restoration described by the TLSs with minimal control efforts. The simulation results display that the TLSs strategy for power systems’ voltage control synthesis is extremely significant.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fifth-Generation District Heating and Cooling Substations: Demand Response with Artificial Neural Network-Based Model Predictive Control

District heating and cooling (DHC) is considered one of the most sustainable technologies to meet the heating and cooling demands of buildings in urban areas. The fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) concept, often referred to as ambient loops, is a novel solution emerging in Europe and has become a widely discussed topic in current energy system research. 5GDHC systems operate at a temperature close to the ground and include electrically driven heat pumps and associated thermal energy storage in a building-sited energy transfer station (ETS) to satisfy user comfort. This work presents new strategies for improving the operation of these energy transfer stations by means of a model predictive control (MPC) method based on recurrent artificial neural networks. The results show that, under simple time-of-use utility rates, the advanced controller outperforms a rule-based controller for smart charging of the domestic hot water (DHW) thermal energy storage under specific boundary conditions. By exploiting the available thermal energy storage capacity, the MPC controller is capable of shifting up to 14% of the electricity consumption of the ETS from on-peak to off-peak hours. Therefore, the advanced control implemented in 5GDHC networks promotes coupling between the thermal and the electric sector, producing flexibility on the electric grid.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗