Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of modeling uncertainty in the Rayleigh damping model

Understanding and accurately characterizing energy dissipation mechanisms in civil structures during earthquakes is an important element of seismic assessment and design. The most commonly used model is attributed to Rayleigh. This paper proposes a systematic approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with Rayleigh's damping model. Bayesian calibration with embedded model error is employed to treat the coefficients of the Rayleigh model as random variables using modal damping ratios. Through a numerical example, we illustrate how this approach works and how the calibrated model can address modeling uncertainty associated with the Rayleigh damping model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1974

Ozone measurement systems improvements studies

Results are summarized of an initial study of techniques for measuring atmospheric ozone, carried out as the first phase of a program to improve ozone measurement techniques. The study concentrated on two measurement systems, the electro chemical cell (ECC) ozonesonde and the Dobson ozone spectrophotometer, and consisted of two tasks. The first task consisted of error modeling and system error analysis of the two measurement systems. Under the second task a Monte-Carlo model of the Dobson ozone measurement technique was developed and programmed for computer operation.

Thomas, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1979

The discrete-time compensated Kalman filter

A suboptimal dynamic compensator to be used in conjunction with the ordinary discrete-time Kalman filter is derived. The resultant compensated Kalman filter has the property that steady-state bias estimation errors, resulting from modelling errors, are eliminated. The implementation of the compensated Kalman filter involves the use of accumulators in the residual channels in addition to the nominal dynamic model of the stochastic system.

Lee, W.-H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

In-flight inertial guidance alignment

This work reports on an extension of a recent work by Goshen-Meskin and Bar-Itzhack (1988). That work dealt with the observability analysis of inertial-navigation systems during in-flight alignment. The work was confined to the analysis of altitude damped systems; hence, the error model considered was a two-channel model. The present work deals with an undamped three-channel error model. An analysis similar to the previous one is carried out. It is shown that it is possible to fully observe, and thus estimate, all the states of the system. This is in contrast to the previous two-channel system, in which it is impossible to fully observe and estimate all the states of the system. The conclusions of the analysis presented in this paper are verified through covariance simulation which yields identical results.

Bar-Itzhack, I. Y.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Planning Satellite Swarm Measurements for Climate Models: Comparing Dynamic Constraint Processing and MILP Methods

We present D-SHIELD, a challenging climate science application to plan coordinated measurements (observations) for a constellation of satellites, each containing two different sensors, each with 61 pointing angle options. The L-band and P-band radar sensors collect data fed into a soil moisture model which tracks and predicts soil moisture across 1.67 million Ground Positions (GP). Soil moisture is an important predictor of wildfires, and then a predictor of floods, landslides and debris flow after a fire. Each measurement covers multiple GP due to the sensor footprint. Each GP has a "model error" which represents the uncertainty of the the soil moisture state prediction. Model error changes at different rates for each GP as the time since last observation increases and after significant events like rain. The planner's goal is to select measurements which maximize soil moisture model improvement (reduce model uncertainty). This problem is combinatorically explosive, involving many degrees of freedom for planner choices. Good domain heuristics can find solutions within a reasonable time for our application needs but cannot be proven optimal. In this paper we compare two different planning approaches to this problem: Dynamic Constraint Processing (DCP) and Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). We match inputs and metrics for both DCP and MILP algorithms to enable a direct apples-to-apples comparison. We demonstrate and discuss the trades between DCP flexibility and performance vs. MILP's promise of provable optimality.

Rich Levinson↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel network-based approach to determining measurement representation error for model evaluation of aerosol microphysical properties

Atmospheric aerosol size and abundance influence radiative effects and climate change. To date, efforts to constrain global climate models’ radiative forcing with in situ aerosol observations have been hamstrung by uncertainty. One source of error, the regional “representation error,” arises when accurate but sparse single-point measurements of atmospheric aerosol distributions are compared with a model value, assuming that the single-point measurement is representative of the model domain. The Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer network in the Southern Great Plains (POPSnet-SGP) campaign has demonstrated that a network of nearly autonomous aerosol instruments operating at ambient temperature and relative humidity (with low measurement error) may be used to quantify measurement representation error and investigate the factors introducing heterogeneity in aerosol distributions across a rural, continental background region. Measurements were made using Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer (POPS) instruments at several sites for five months across the Department of Energy’s Aerosol Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM-SGP) User Facility in the central USA. Measurement representation error decreased with longer averaging periods (20-40 % between 1 sec and 1 day), varied between sites by 10 – 20 % for aerosol concentration 140 – 2500 nm in diameter (N_140), and was higher for aerosols > 400 nm in diameter (N_400). Our measurements also show the influence of local meteorology on aerosol surface area (A_140) and size distributions: A_140 is positively correlated with wind speed and relative humidity, negatively correlated with precipitation, and lower given westerly winds. Based on this study, we conclude that the POPSnet approach provides considerably more insight into the spatial variability in the aerosol population that can be used to constrain climate models than would be available from similar networks of PM 2.5 monitors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel implicit hybrid machine learning model and its application for reinforcement learning

A novel methodology to develop implicit hybrid models is presented. PyTorch is used to integrate physics-based equations with machine learning models. Automatic differentiation of the hybrid model is leveraged to solve the implicit equations. Iterative solving enables gradient based updates to the machine learning model. The novel methodology is compared to an explicit hybrid approach on a continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR). The novel method results in a lower modelling error. Both hybrid models effectively train with noisy data. To test the implicit hybrid model, it is employed as a reinforcement learning (RL) training model. The RL algorithm trained on the hybrid model outperforms real time optimization of the CSTR and performs nearly as well as RL trained directly on the CSTR and a traditional gradient based approach. Training RL directly on the CSTR requires over 60,000 system interactions compared to 6000 historical data points for hybrid model development.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional-scale, sector-specific evaluation of global CO2 inversion models using aircraft data from the ACT-America project

We use vertical profiles of airborne measurements of CO2 from frontal cases during the summer 2016 Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) campaign to evaluate the skill of a set of ten global CO2 inversion models participating in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory – 2 (OCO-2) Model Intercomparison Project (MIP). Model errors and biases (model minus observation) were categorized by region (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and South), frontal sector (warm or cold), and transport model (predominantly Tracer Model 5 (TM5) and Goddard Earth Observing System – Chemistry (GEOS-Chem)). Overall, the inversions reproduce the general structures of the observed vertical profiles and the enhanced / depleted low-level CO2 in warm / cold sectors, but tend to underestimate the magnitude of the sector difference in each region. In the Midwest and South warm sectors, inversion biases were about 1 ppm above 1500 m AGL, though model spread (quantified by interquartile range) was often even smaller; below 1500 m AGL, model biases were negative and about -2 ppm near the surface. For the Midwest and South cold sectors, models had +2-3 ppm biases below 1500 m AGL, but with comparable model spread. Uniquely, in the Mid-Atlantic there was a consistent difference between TM5 and GEOS-Chem mole fractions for both sectors up to 3000 m AGL (TM5 lower by 2 ppm), on the order of the observation-relative biases. In the MidAtlantic TM5 inversions had negative biases in warm sectors, while GEOS-Chem inversions had positive biases in cold sectors. Possible reasons for the regional variability are discussed.

Gaudet, Brian J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

evapotranspiration↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for: A hybrid biophysical-machine learning framework for diurnal surface energy flux estimation using proximal sensing

Thermal-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal datasets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for specific surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of an ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81-0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46-0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical – machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

Agricultural Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1978

The discrete-time compensated Kalman filter

A suboptimal dynamic compensator to be used in conjunction with the ordinary discrete time Kalman filter was derived. The resultant compensated Kalman Filter has the property that steady state bias estimation errors, resulting from modelling errors, were eliminated.

Lee, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Millimeter wave near-field study

The possibility is evaluated of current technology measuring large aperture millimeter wave antennas. Included are a mathematical modeling of system errors, experimental data supporting error model, predictions of system accuracy at millimeter wavelengths, advantage of near-field measurements, and a cost estimate for a facility upgrade. The use is emphasized of software compensation and other inexpensive alternatives to develop a near optimum solution to near-field measurement problems at millimeter wavelengths.

Kefauver, Neill↗
NASA NTRS1993

Transient Faults in Computer Systems

A powerful technique particularly appropriate for the detection of errors caused by transient faults in computer systems was developed. The technique can be implemented in either software or hardware; the research conducted thus far primarily considered software implementations. The error detection technique developed has the distinct advantage of having provably complete coverage of all errors caused by transient faults that affect the output produced by the execution of a program. In other words, the technique does not have to be tuned to a particular error model to enhance error coverage. Also, the correctness of the technique can be formally verified. The technique uses time and software redundancy. The foundation for an effective, low-overhead, software-based certification trail approach to real-time error detection resulting from transient fault phenomena was developed.

Masson, Gerald M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Integrating Reliability Analysis with a Performance Tool

A large number of commercial simulation tools support performance oriented studies of complex computer and communication systems. Reliability of these systems, when desired, must be obtained by remodeling the system in a different tool. This has obvious drawbacks: (1) substantial extra effort is required to create the reliability model; (2) through modeling error the reliability model may not reflect precisely the same system as the performance model; (3) as the performance model evolves one must continuously reevaluate the validity of assumptions made in that model. In this paper we describe an approach, and a tool that implements this approach, for integrating a reliability analysis engine into a production quality simulation based performance modeling tool, and for modeling within such an integrated tool. The integrated tool allows one to use the same modeling formalisms to conduct both performance and reliability studies. We describe how the reliability analysis engine is integrated into the performance tool, describe the extensions made to the performance tool to support the reliability analysis, and consider the tool's performance.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Autonomous Navigation Using Celestial Objects

In the twenty-first century, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Enterprises envision frequent low-cost missions to explore the solar system, observe the universe, and study our planet. Satellite autonomy is a key technology required to reduce satellite operating costs. The Guidance, Navigation, and Control Center (GNCC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) currently sponsors several initiatives associated with the development of advanced spacecraft systems to provide autonomous navigation and control. Autonomous navigation has the potential both to increase spacecraft navigation system performance and to reduce total mission cost. By eliminating the need for routine ground-based orbit determination and special tracking services, autonomous navigation can streamline spacecraft ground systems. Autonomous navigation products can be included in the science telemetry and forwarded directly to the scientific investigators. In addition, autonomous navigation products are available onboard to enable other autonomous capabilities, such as attitude control, maneuver planning and orbit control, and communications signal acquisition. Autonomous navigation is required to support advanced mission concepts such as satellite formation flying. GNCC has successfully developed high-accuracy autonomous navigation systems for near-Earth spacecraft using NASA's space and ground communications systems and the Global Positioning System (GPS). Recently, GNCC has expanded its autonomous navigation initiative to include satellite orbits that are beyond the regime in which use of GPS is possible. Currently, GNCC is assessing the feasibility of using standard spacecraft attitude sensors and communication components to provide autonomous navigation for missions including: libration point, gravity assist, high-Earth, and interplanetary orbits. The concept being evaluated uses a combination of star, Sun, and Earth sensor measurements along with forward-link Doppler measurements from the command link carrier to autonomously estimate the spacecraft's orbit and reference oscillator's frequency. To support autonomous attitude determination and control and maneuver planning and control, the orbit determination accuracy should be on the order of kilometers in position and centimeters per second in velocity. A less accurate solution (one hundred kilometers in position) could be used for acquisition purposes for command and science downloads. This paper provides performance results for both libration point orbiting and high Earth orbiting satellites as a function of sensor measurement accuracy, measurement types, measurement frequency, initial state errors, and dynamic modeling errors.

Folta, David↗
NASA NTRS2010

Quantification of the Uncertainties for the Ares I A106 Ascent Aerodynamic Database

A detailed description of the quantification of uncertainties for the Ares I ascent aero 6-DOF wind tunnel database is presented. The database was constructed from wind tunnel test data and CFD results. The experimental data came from tests conducted in the Boeing Polysonic Wind Tunnel in St. Louis and the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. The major sources of error for this database were: experimental error (repeatability), database modeling errors, and database interpolation errors.

Houlden, Heather P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Correlated Errors on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

As thermal errors are reduced instrumental and troposphere correlated errors will increasingly become more important. Work in progress shows that troposphere covariance error models improve data analysis results. We expect to see stronger effects with higher data rates. Temperature modeling of delay errors may further reduce temporal correlations in the data.

thermal errors↗