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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Training Requirements Modeling to Inform Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The IMPRINT results will be presented in the modeling and simulation sub-tag. Here we present results of a model based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibility matrix (CQRM), a tool used to identify the crew qualifications for each area of responsibility (operation, system, and payload) for a mission. The model outputs an optimized allocation of training assignments along with a flight-assigned CQRM that can be used to consider the expertise that can be trained within a crew of a given size. We discuss the CQRM model result implications on the trade space for Mars mission crew size.

Mars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Training Requirements Modeling to Inform Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The IMPRINT results will be presented in the modeling and simulation sub-tag. Here we present results of a model based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibility matrix (CQRM), a tool used to identify the crew qualifications for each area of responsibility (operation, system, and payload) for a mission. The model outputs an optimized allocation of training assignments along with a flight-assigned CQRM that can be used to consider the expertise that can be trained within a crew of a given size. We discuss the CQRM model result implications on the trade space for Mars mission crew size.

Mars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flux Comparison of Master-8 and Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

With ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model(ORDEM) 3.1, the two premier orbital debris engineering models have been officially released. The two models come with significant enhancements and now represent state-of-the-art orbital debris modelling for their respective agencies. Both models provide the community with estimates of the space debris environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) up to at least geostationary altitude. The MASTER population is an event-based simulation of all known events that generate debris and objects that are part of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage of objects with diameters down to approximately 10cm in LEO and 1 m in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Different models are used to simulate the artificial objects and their orbit evolution over time. These models are called “sources” since they assign an origin to each individual object and consist of fragments, solid rocket motor (SRM) remainders, sodium-potassium(NaK) droplets, paintflakes, ejecta, and multi-layer insulation (MLI) fragments. The objects from each source are characterized by having individual release mechanisms, as well as orbital distributions, material composition, size, and mass distributions. Dedicated radar and telescope observation data is used to calibrate the model for objects larger than 1 cm in LEO and larger than 10 cm in GEO. For calibrating the small-sized objects, below 1 cm, impact data from returned surfaces are analyzed. Because the >1cm object population is dominated by fragments, the fragmentation event database was updated to include new events, as well as re-evaluate past events. Special attention was drawn to re-evaluating theFengyun-1C anti-satellite test from 2007 and Cosmos-Iridium collision event from 2009 since these events shape the fragment population because of their severity. After 2009, the two largest fragmentations in terms of number of tracked debris are the Briz-M explosion in 2012 and the NOAA-16explosion in 2015. In total, there are 261 confirmed fragmentations in the database up to November 2016.The baseline population for ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. SSN catalog, and observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller size regions. These regions are not well-covered by the SSN catalog yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments greater than 1mm from collisions and explosions, and these fragment populations are scaled using ground-based radar data. Specific major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as NaK droplets, were re-examined, modelled, and added to the ORDEM environment separately. Optical measurement data is used to model the GEO population down to 10 cm. The debris environment is propagated using NASA’s LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, and future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically. The environment from a few millimetres down to 10 𝜇m is modelled using a special degradation model where small particles are generated from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, then the populations are scaled to fit in situ cratering data from Space Shuttle returned surfaces. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to upper stages and spacecraft. This paper will discuss the MASTER and ORDEM approaches for modelling populations and compare fluxes for specific orbits, including sun-synchronous, ISS-altitude, geosynchronous transfer, and GEO. In the end, a conclusion is drawn towards the importance of having multiple fundamentally different, yet validated, models to estimate the space debris population.

Andre Horstmann↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving five-year survival prediction via multitask learning across HPV-related cancers

Oncology is a highly siloed field of research in which sub-disciplinary specialization has limited the amount of information shared between researchers of distinct cancer types. This can be attributed to legitimate differences in the physiology and carcinogenesis of cancers affecting distinct anatomical sites. However, underlying processes that are shared across seemingly disparate cancers probably affect prognosis. The objective of the current study is to investigate whether multitask learning improves 5-year survival cancer patient survival prediction by leveraging information across anatomically distinct HPV related cancers. Furthermore, data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database. The study cohort consisted of 29,768 primary cancer cases diagnosed in the United States between 2004 and 2015. Ten different cancer diagnoses were selected, all with a known association with HPV risk. In the analysis, the cancer diagnoses were categorized into three distinct topography groups of varying specificity. The most specific topography grouping consisted of 10 original cancer diagnoses differentiated by the first two digits of the ICD-O-3 topography code. The second topography grouping consisted of cancer diagnoses categorized into six distinct organ groups. Finally, the third topography grouping consisted of just two groups, head-neck cancers and ano-genital cancers. The tasks were to predict 5-year survival for patients within the different topography groups using 14 predictive features which were selected among descriptive variables available in the SEER database. The information from the predictive features was shared between tasks in three different ways, resulting in three distinct predictive models: 1) Information was not shared between patients assigned to different tasks (single task learning); 2) Information was shared between all patients, regardless of task (pooled model); 3) Only relevant information was shared between patients grouped to different tasks (multitask learning). Prediction performance was evaluated with Brier scores. All three models were evaluated against one another on each of the three distinct topography-defined tasks. The results showed that multitask classifiers achieved relative improvement for the majority of the scenarios studied compared to single task learning and pooled baseline methods. In this study, we have demonstrated that sharing information among anatomically distinct cancer types can lead to improved predictive survival models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reweighting configurations generated by transferable, machine learned models for protein sidechain backmapping

Multiscale modeling requires the linking of models at different levels of detail, with the goal of gaining accelerations from lower fidelity models while recovering fine details from higher resolution models. Communication across resolutions is particularly important in modeling soft matter, where tight couplings exist between molecular-level details and mesoscale structures. While multiscale modeling of biomolecules has become a critical component in exploring their structure and self-assembly, backmapping from coarse-grained to fine-grained, or atomistic, representations presents a challenge, despite recent advances through machine learning. A major hurdle, especially for strategies utilizing machine learning, is that backmappings can only approximately recover the atomistic ensemble of interest. We demonstrate conditions for which backmapped configurations may be reweighted to exactly recover the desired atomistic ensemble. By training separate decoding models for each sidechain type, we develop an algorithm based on normalizing flows and geometric algebra attention to autoregressively propose backmapped configurations for any protein sequence. Critical for reweighting with modern protein force fields, our trained models include all hydrogen atoms in the backmapping and make probabilities associated with atomistic configurations directly accessible. We also demonstrate, however, that reweighting is extremely challenging despite state-of-the-art performance on recently developed metrics and generation of configurations with low energies in atomistic protein force fields. Through detailed analysis of configurational weights, we show that machine-learned backmappings must not only generate configurations with reasonable energies, but also correctly assign relative probabilities under the generative model. These are broadly important considerations in generative modeling of atomistic molecular configurations.

Monroe, Jacob I. [Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville,↗
NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The effects of a dynamic graphical model during simulation-based training of console operation skill

LOADER is a Windows-based simulation of a complex procedural task. The task requires subjects to execute long sequences of console-operation actions (e.g., button presses, switch actuations, dial rotations) to accomplish specific goals. The LOADER interface is a graphical computer-simulated console which controls railroad cars, tracks, and cranes in a fictitious railroad yard. We hypothesized that acquisition of LOADER performance skill would be supported by the representation of a dynamic graphical model linking console actions to goal and goal states in the 'railroad yard'. Twenty-nine subjects were randomly assigned to one of two treatments (i.e., dynamic model or no model). During training, both groups received identical text-based instruction in an instructional-window above the LOADER interface. One group, however, additionally saw a dynamic version of the bird's-eye view of the railroad yard. After training, both groups were tested under identical conditions. They were asked to perform the complete procedure without guidance and without access to either type of railroad yard representation. Results indicate that rather than becoming dependent on the animated rail yard model, subjects in the dynamic model condition apparently internalized the model, as evidenced by their performance after the model was removed.

Farquhar, John D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating boosted decision trees as a guide for inertial confinement fusion design

Inertial confined fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility have recently entered a new regime approaching ignition. Improved modeling and exploration of the experimental parameter space were essential to deepening our understanding of the mechanisms that degrade and amplify the neutron yield. The growing prevalence of machine learning in fusion studies opens a new avenue for investigation. Here in this paper, we have applied the Gradient-Boosted Decision Tree machine-learning architecture to further explore the parameter space and find correlations with the neutron yield, a key performance indicator. We find reasonable agreement between the measured and predicted yield, with a mean absolute percentage error on a randomly assigned test set of 35.5%. This model finds the characteristics of the laser pulse to be the most influential in prediction, as well as the hohlraum laser entrance hole diameter and an enhanced capsule fabrication technique. We used the trained model to scan over the design space of experiments from three different campaigns to evaluate the potential of this technique to provide design changes that could improve the resulting neutron yield. While these data-driven model cannot predict ignition without examples of ignited shots in the training set, it can be used to indicate that an unseen shot design will at least be in the upper range of previously observed neutron yields.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fourier domain dynamic correction method for complex optical fringes in laser spectrometers

A method is provided for Fourier domain dynamic correction of optical fringes in a laser spectrometer. The method includes Fourier transforming a background spectrum contaminated with the optical fringes to obtain baseline fringes in a frequency domain. The method includes partitioning the baseline fringes in the frequency domain to obtain partitioned baseline fringes. The method includes reconstructing the partitioned baseline fringes as separate spectra. The method includes constructing a fitting model to approximate the background spectrum by assigning a first and a second free parameter to each of partitioned baseline fringe components to respectively allow for drift and amplitude adjustments during a fitting of the fitting model. The method includes applying the fitting model to a newly acquired spectrum to provide an interpretation of the newly acquired spectrum having a reduced influence of spectral contamination on concentration retrieval.

Teng, Cheyenne↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Losses in a Three Electrode System Towards Fast Charge Control

In this work we demonstrate the applicability of a versatile separator-reference mounted electrode in a three-electrode setup to accurately capture the primary current pathway in the battery cell during operation, calibrate a porous electrode model to the individual anode and cathode potential signals, and assign the various resistances to electrochemical phenomena in the battery cell. This calibrated electrochemical model is validated using continuous rate discharges associated with highway driving scenarios in an electric vehicle, and in turn utilized to predict the local anode potential and proximity to lithium plating onset. Finally, we demonstrate the strategy associated with utilization of the model to estimate constant anode potential charging during fast charge scenarios at various rates and starting conditions as a future look to fast charge calibration development and controls.

Garrick, Taylor R. (ORCID:0000000322518129)↗
NASA NTRS2021

Predicting Arrival and Departure Runway Assignments with Machine Learning

Runway assignments at major airports are made by air traffic controllers subject to various constraints, and to achieve various objectives. In this research, we describe our efforts training machine learning (ML) models to predict both departure and arrival runway assignments using an entirely data-driven approach. This approach is compared to existing rule-based approaches developed in previous research using input from Subject Matter Experts. The models have features derived from various FAA data feeds, and leverage multiple machine learning algorithms. Results for models trained for nine major U.S. airports are described and compared to one another across various important dimensions. Particular attention was paid to developing a repeatable framework for training these models so the approach could be scaled to other airports, and to developing models that are useful in a real-time environment. In addition, the models were designed to be functional in a real-time environment to support NASA’s ATD-2 project, as part of an ML-powered shadow system to compare against the performance of the fielded system.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS1998

Sarnoff JND Vision Model for Flat-Panel Design

This document describes adaptation of the basic Sarnoff JND Vision Model created in response to the NASA/ARPA need for a general-purpose model to predict the perceived image quality attained by flat-panel displays. The JND model predicts the perceptual ratings that humans will assign to a degraded color-image sequence relative to its nondegraded counterpart. Substantial flexibility is incorporated into this version of the model so it may be used to model displays at the sub-pixel and sub-frame level. To model a display (e.g., an LCD), the input-image data can be sampled at many times the pixel resolution and at many times the digital frame rate. The first stage of the model downsamples each sequence in time and in space to physiologically reasonable rates, but with minimum interpolative artifacts and aliasing. Luma and chroma parts of the model generate (through multi-resolution pyramid representation) a map of differences-between test and reference called the JND map, from which a summary rating predictor is derived. The latest model extensions have done well in calibration against psychophysical data and against image-rating data given a CRT-based front-end. THe software was delivered to NASA Ames and is being integrated with LCD display models at that facility,

Brill, Michael H.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrating Human Performance Measures into Space Operations: Beyond Our Scheduling Capabilities?

Current planning and scheduling software tools for International Space Station (ISS) support different flight controller teams as they plan daily space operations. Planning and scheduling tools capabilities include integrating digitized ISS state inputs, evaluating their expected future states, and propagating them over time. Extensive, custom-made computational models of operations, of objectives, and of operational constraints help ISS flight controllers identify where scheduled events violate constraints. Based on the current capabilities of these tools, this paper proposes how human performance measures could be better integrated into planning and scheduling tools for space mission operations. Future integration of human performance measures could be applied to state inputs (in this case, the astronaut’s state) and to modeling human performance operational constraints & operational objectives (i.e., assigned activities) with parameters that are relevant to human performance measures. Gaps between the state-of-the-art for human performance modeling and planning tools for future exploration missions are identified.

space operations↗
NASA NTRS2021

Predicting Arrival and Departure Runway Assignments with Machine Learning

Runway assignments at major airports are made by air traffic controllers subject to various constraints, and to achieve various objectives. In this research, we describe our efforts training machine learning (ML) models to predict both departure and arrival runway assignments using an entirely data-driven approach. This approach is compared to existing rule-based approaches developed in previous research using input from Subject Matter Experts. The models have features derived from various FAA data feeds, and leverage multiple machine learning algorithms. Results for models trained for nine major U.S. airports are described and compared to one another across various important dimensions. Particular attention was paid to developing a repeatable framework for training these models so the approach could be scaled to other airports, and to developing models that are useful in a real-time environment. In addition, the models were designed to be functional in a real-time environment to support NASA’s ATD-2 project, as part of an ML-powered shadow system to compare against the performance of the fielded system.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS1999

Angiotensin-converting enzyme and matrix metalloproteinase inhibition with developing heart failure: comparative effects on left ventricular function and geometry

The progression of congestive heart failure (CHF) is left ventricular (LV) myocardial remodeling. The matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) contribute to tissue remodeling and therefore MMP inhibition may serve as a useful therapeutic target in CHF. Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibition favorably affects LV myocardial remodeling in CHF. This study examined the effects of specific MMP inhibition, ACE inhibition, and combined treatment on LV systolic and diastolic function in a model of CHF. Pigs were randomly assigned to five groups: 1) rapid atrial pacing (240 beats/min) for 3 weeks (n = 8); 2) ACE inhibition (fosinopril, 2.5 mg/kg b.i.d. orally) and rapid pacing (n = 8); 3) MMP inhibition (PD166793 2 mg/kg/day p.o.) and rapid pacing (n = 8); 4) combined ACE and MMP inhibition (2.5 mg/kg b.i.d. and 2 mg/kg/day, respectively) and rapid pacing (n = 8); and 5) controls (n = 9). LV peak wall stress increased by 2-fold with rapid pacing and was reduced in all treatment groups. LV fractional shortening fell by nearly 2-fold with rapid pacing and increased in all treatment groups. The circumferential fiber shortening-systolic stress relation was reduced with rapid pacing and increased in the ACE inhibition and combination groups. LV myocardial stiffness constant was unchanged in the rapid pacing group, increased nearly 2-fold in the MMP inhibition group, and was normalized in the ACE inhibition and combination treatment groups. Increased MMP activation contributes to the LV dilation and increased wall stress with pacing CHF and a contributory downstream mechanism of ACE inhibition is an effect on MMP activity.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2011

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Threat Assessment: Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle

This report provides results of a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessment of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle (MSR EEV). The assessment was performed using standard risk assessment methodology illustrated in Figure 1-1. Central to the process is the Bumper risk assessment code (Figure 1-2), which calculates the critical penetration risk based on geometry, shielding configurations and flight parameters. The assessment process begins by building a finite element model (FEM) of the spacecraft, which defines the size and shape of the spacecraft as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations. This model is built using the NX I-deas software package from Siemens PLM Software. The FEM is constructed using triangular and quadrilateral elements that define the outer shell of the spacecraft. Bumper-II uses the model file to determine the geometry of the spacecraft for the analysis. The next step of the process is to identify the ballistic limit characteristics for the various shield types. These ballistic limits define the critical size particle that will penetrate a shield at a given impact angle and impact velocity. When the finite element model is built, each individual element is assigned a property identifier (PID) to act as an index for its shielding properties. Using the ballistic limit equations (BLEs) built into the Bumper-II code, the shield characteristics are defined for each and every PID in the model. The final stage of the analysis is to determine the probability of no penetration (PNP) on the spacecraft. This is done using the micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment definitions that are built into the Bumper-II code. These engineering models take into account orbit inclination, altitude, attitude and analysis date in order to predict an impacting particle flux on the spacecraft. Using the geometry and shielding characteristics previously defined for the spacecraft and combining that information with the environment model calculations, the Bumper-II code calculates a probability of no penetration for the spacecraft.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping and probing Froggatt-Nielsen solutions to the quark flavor puzzle

The Froggatt-Nielsen (FN) mechanism is an elegant solution to the flavor problem. In its minimal application to the quark sector, the different quark types and generations have different charges under a 𝑈⁢(1)𝑋 flavor symmetry. The SM Yukawa couplings are generated below the flavor breaking scale with hierarchies dictated by the quark charge assignments. Only a handful of charge assignments are generally considered in the literature. We analyze the complete space of possible charge assignments with |𝑋 𝑞𝑖 | ≤ 4 and perform both a set of Bayesian-inspired numerical scans and an analytical spurion analysis to identify those charge assignments that reliably generate SM-like quark mass and mixing hierarchies. The resulting set of top-20 flavor charge assignments significantly enlarges the viable space of FN models but is still compact enough to enable focused phenomenological study. We then apply our numerical methodology to demonstrate that these distinct charge assignments result in the generation of correlated flavor-violating four-quark operators characterized by significantly varied strengths, potentially differing substantially from the possibilities previously explored in the literature. Future precision measurement of Δ⁢𝐹 = 2 observables, along with increasingly accurate SM predictions, may therefore enable us to distinguish among otherwise equally plausible FN charges, thus shedding light on the UV structure of the flavor sector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncovering a CF 3 Effect on X‐ray Absorption Energies of [Cu(CF 3 ) 4 ] − and Related Copper Compounds by Using Resonant Diffraction Anomalous Fine Structure (DAFS) Measurements**

Abstract Understanding the electronic structures of high‐valent metal complexes aids the advancement of metal‐catalyzed cross coupling methodologies. A prototypical complex with formally high valency is [Cu(CF 3 ) 4 ] − (1), which has a formal Cu(III) oxidation state but whose physical analysis has led some to a Cu(I) assignment in an inverted ligand field model. Recent examinations of1by X‐ray spectroscopies have led previous authors to contradictory conclusions, motivating the re‐examination of its X‐ray absorption profile here by a complementary method, resonant diffraction anomalous fine structure (DAFS). From analysis of DAFS measurements for a series of seven mononuclear Cu complexes including1, here it is shown that there is a systematic trifluoromethyl effect on X‐ray absorption that blue shifts the resonant Cu K‐edge energy by 2–3 eV per CF 3 , completely accounting for observed changes in DAFS profiles between formally Cu(III) complexes like1and formally Cu(I) complexes like (Ph 3 P) 3 CuCF 3 (3). Thus, in agreement with the inverted ligand field model, the data presented herein imply that1is best described as containing a Cu(I) ion with d n count approaching 10.

Chemistry↗