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A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration
Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models.
System modeling for grid-interactive efficient building applications
Despite the abundance of research applications of system modeling in grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs), the transfer of those applications to real-world practices is still in its early stages. This is partially due to the lack of a summary on how system modeling should be established for a given application of GEBs. Here, we fill this gap by providing an extensive survey of the literature on system modeling for different GEBs that have been produced in the past decade. This survey involves over 300 relevant journal articles from the building community, the power system community, and the society of control. Specifically, we first identified key requirements of system modeling for GEBs based on various types of applications discussed in those publications. We then summarized the system modeling applications from those publications, in terms of their assumptions, modeling approach, and simulation. After that, we analyzed different assumptions made for various applications, the extent to which those modeling approaches satisfied the key requirements, and how those approaches can be scaled up for large-scale applications, which are quite common in GEBs. In addition, we gave insights on how to use system modeling for different applications in GEBs. At the end, we provided recommended directions for future studies to fully unleash the potentials of system modeling to support GEBs.
Data Request for the Distribution Grid Atlas
Model-based, distribution powerflow analysis is a foundational component of system planning and grid modernization efforts, but data security is an impediment to collaboration among utility engineers, researchers, developers, community members, and other stakeholders. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are partnering to develop the new Distribution Grid Atlas - a publicly available catalog of realistic, geographically relevant, representative distribution feeder models without sensitive geographic information, customer data, or disclosure of utility models. We are looking for utilities to share data for the Distribution Grid Atlas.
BIM Interoperability Tool for Improving IFC-based Model Data Exchange Between Architectural Design and Structural Analysis for Linear Piping Components
There is a growing need in the AEC industry for the digitalization of model-based data exchange in BIM workflows. However, users continue to face difficulties exchanging data between BIM-based computer-aided design (CAD) and computer-aided engineering (CAE) software, even with the open, non-proprietary data exchange format called Industry Foundation Classes (IFC). Proposed solutions in academic research focus primarily on building systems, with comparatively little attention to piping models. Therefore, this paper introduces an interoperability tool for enabling piping model data exchange between architectural and structural analysis domains. The tool is tested using a piping model created in Autodesk Revit and shows marked improvement for IFC-based CAD-to-CAE interoperability over existing practice.
Computational Modeling and Evolutionary Implications of Biochemical Reactions in Bacterial Microcompartments
Bacterial microcompartments (BMCs) are protein-encapsulated compartments found across at least 23 bacterial phyla. BMCs contain a variety of metabolic processes that share the commonality of toxic or volatile intermediates, oxygen-sensitive enzymes and cofactors, or increased substrate concentration for magnified reaction rates. These compartmentalized reactions have been computationally modeled to explore the encapsulated dynamics, ask evolutionary-based questions, and develop a more systematic understanding required for the engineering of novel BMCs. Many crucial aspects of these systems remain unknown or unmeasured, such as substrate permeabilities across the protein shell, feasibility of pH gradients, and transport rates of associated substrates into the cell. This review explores existing BMC models, dominated in the literature by cyanobacterial carboxysomes, and highlights potentially important areas for exploration.
A fast reduced model for a shell-and-tube based latent heat thermal energy storage heat exchanger and its application for cost optimal design by nonlinear programming
Numerical simulation of latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems plays a fundamental role in studying the physical process and guiding the engineering design. Discretization of the PDEs describing the nonlinear solidification/melting process of phase change materials (PCMs) leads to a large-scale complex dynamics system, where the system behavior depends on a set of parameters. In a design setting, repeated model evaluations are required over the set of parameters results in significant computational burden. In this paper, an explicit analytic solution was built for the propagation of the solidification front in a cylindrical coordinate. The analytic solution approach is further employed to develop a low computational reduced model (RM) as a module for a shell-and-tube based LHTES heat exchanger. The levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is used as a design metric and the RM model is used to apply system-level constraints in the nonlinear programming formulation that facilitates efficient global optimal design of the PCM properties, flow conditions and tube geometries. The use of LCOE as the design metric prevents over design of the heat transfer rate and also establishes a fair ground for evaluation of different thermal storage technologies and their integrated applications with other systems. Optimal results showed that a higher effectiveness results in a higher LCOE; the velocity of the HTF and the length of the channel are highly correlated with each other; both larger PCM latent energy and conductivity result in lower LCOE.
How systems engineering and human factors can assist SMR vendors with the licensing process - 345
There is growing interest in the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) as a cost-effective renewable source of energy. Most of the current conceptual designs propose advanced and automated control and monitoring technologies which would require complex human system interfaces. The proposals also include a reduction in the number of staff, and partial or full remote control of the facilities. The human factors challenges of such a design philosophy range from identification of information requirements of users to assessing workload to deciding on best information visualization techniques to ensure situation awareness is maintained in a remote control facility. Addressing these challenges will require a systems engineering approach where user requirements are identified through a systematic approach for various contexts, including normal, abnormal, and accident conditions. A systems engineering process will integrate human factors as well as other specialty disciplines such as reliability and design optimization in a coherent fashion that would lead to realization of a successful system that addresses user requirements. The licensing model in Canada is based upon a graded approach and is largely technology neutral. A key factor in ensuring effective licensing effort is identification of regulatory requirements. This paper discusses how adopting a systems engineering approach and early consideration of human factors principles and requirements will not only ensure an efficient design process, but will also help with developing a design that meets the regulatory requirements. (authors)
Learning dynamical systems from data: An introduction to physics-guided deep learning
Modeling complex physical dynamics is a fundamental task in science and engineering. Traditional physics-based models are first-principled, explainable, and sample-efficient. However, they often rely on strong modeling assumptions and expensive numerical integration, requiring significant computational resources and domain expertise. While deep learning (DL) provides efficient alternatives for modeling complex dynamics, they require a large amount of labeled training data. Furthermore, its predictions may disobey the governing physical laws and are difficult to interpret. Physics-guided DL aims to integrate first-principled physical knowledge into data-driven methods. It has the best of both worlds and is well equipped to better solve scientific problems. Recently, this field has gained great progress and has drawn considerable interest across discipline Here, we introduce the framework of physics-guided DL with a special emphasis on learning dynamical systems. We describe the learning pipeline and categorize state-of-the-art methods under this framework. We also offer our perspectives on the open challenges and emerging opportunities.
Tube-Based Model Predictive Controller for Building’s Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) System
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Dynamic Model and Converter-Based Emulator of a Data Center Power Distribution System
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Parallel-in-Time Power System Simulation Using a Differential Transformation Based Adaptive Parareal Method
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Engineering tertiary chirality in helical biopolymers
Tertiary chirality describes the handedness of supramolecular assemblies and relies not only on the primary and secondary structures of the building blocks but also on topological driving forces that have been sparsely characterized. Helical biopolymers, especially DNA, have been extensively investigated as they possess intrinsic chirality that determines the optical, mechanical, and physical properties of the ensuing material. Here, we employ the DNA tensegrity triangle as a model system to locate the tipping points in chirality inversion at the tertiary level by X-ray diffraction. We engineer tensegrity triangle crystals with incremental rotational steps between immobile junctions from 3 to 28 base pairs (bp). We construct a mathematical model that accurately predicts and explains the molecular configurations in both this work and previous studies. Our design framework is extendable to other supramolecular assemblies of helical biopolymers and can be used in the design of chiral nanomaterials, optically active molecules, and mesoporous frameworks, all of which are of interest to physical, biological, and chemical nanoscience.
Advances in the Co-Simulation of Detailed Electrical and Whole-Building Energy Performance
This article describes recent co-simulation advances for the simultaneous modeling of detailed building electrical distribution systems and whole-building energy performance. The co-simulation architecture combines the EnergyPlus® engine for whole-building energy modeling with a new Modelica library for building an electrical distribution system model that is based on harmonic power flow. This new library allows for a higher-fidelity modeling of electrical power flows and losses within buildings than is available with current building electrical modeling software. We demonstrate the feasibility of the architecture by modeling a simple, two-zone thermal chamber with internal power electronics converters and resistive loads, and we validate the model using experimental data. The proposed co-simulation capability significantly expands the capabilities of building electrical distribution system models in the context of whole-building energy modeling, thus enabling more complex analyses than would have been possible with individual building performance simulation tools that are used to date.
Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach
Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.
Quantized Electronic Doping towards Atomically Controlled “Charge-Engineered” Semiconductor Nanocrystals
“Charge engineering” of semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs) through so-called electronic impurity doping is a long-standing challenge in colloidal chemistry and holds promise for ground-breaking advancements in many optoelectronic, photonic, and spin-based nanotechnologies. To date, our knowledge is limited to a few paradigmatic studies on a small number of model compounds and doping conditions, with important electronic dopants still unexplored in nanoscale systems. Equally importantly, fine-tuning of charge engineered NCs is hampered by the statistical limitations of traditional approaches. The resulting intrinsic doping inhomogeneity restricts fundamental studies to statistically averaged behaviors and complicates the realization of advanced device concepts based on their advantageous functionalities. We aim to address these issues by realizing the first example of II–VI NCs electronically doped with an exact number of heterovalent gold atoms, a known p-type acceptor impurity in bulk chalcogenides. Single-dopant accuracy across entire NC ensembles is obtained through a novel non-injection synthesis employing ligand-exchanged gold clusters as “quantized” dopant sources to seed the nucleation of CdSe NCs in organic media. Structural, spectroscopic, and magneto-optical investigations trace a comprehensive picture of the physical processes resulting from the exact doping level of the NCs. Gold atoms, doped here for the first time into II–VI NCs, are found to incorporate as nonmagnetic Au + species activating intense size-tunable intragap photoluminescence and artificially offsetting the hole occupancy of valence band states. Fundamentally, the transient conversion of Au + to paramagnetic Au 2+ (5d 9 configuration) under optical excitation results in strong photoinduced magnetism and diluted magnetic semiconductor behavior revealing the contribution of individual paramagnetic impurities to the macroscopic magnetism of the NCs. Altogether, our results demonstrate a new chemical approach toward NCs with physical functionalities tailored to the single impurity level and offer a versatile platform for future investigations and device exploitation of individual and collective impurity processes in quantum confined structures.
MOFA: Multi-objective Flux Analysis for the COBRA Toolbox
Environments of biological organisms are frequently nutrient and energy limited. This necessitates that systems exert tight regulation of trade-offs among key biological processes. Quantitative knowledge of these tradeoffs is essential for successful manipulation of biosystems (e.g., metabolic engineering projects). Using genome-scale constraint-based models of metabolism (GSMs), Multi-Objective Flux Analysis (MOFA) allows analyses of trade-offs among a system’s key biological tasks. The leading software for conducting a variety of constraint-based analyses using GSMs is the COBRA Toolbox for MATLAB. Results: We have developed a new add-on tool for COBRA that performs MOFA for a number of objectives only limited by computation power.