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At least 217 records · Page 12

Urban Versus Lake Impacts on Heat Stress and Its Disparities in a Shoreline City

Abstract Shoreline cities are influenced by both urban‐scale processes and land‐water interactions, with consequences on heat exposure and its disparities. Heat exposure studies over these cities have focused on air and skin temperature, even though moisture advection from water bodies can also modulate heat stress. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations covering Chicago, we find that Lake Michigan strongly reduces heat exposure (2.75°C reduction in maximum average air temperature in Chicago) and heat stress (maximum average wet bulb globe temperature reduced by 0.86°C) during the day, while urbanization enhances them at night (2.75 and 1.57°C increases in minimum average air and wet bulb globe temperature, respectively). We also demonstrate that urban and lake impacts on temperature (particularly skin temperature), including their extremes, and lake‐to‐land gradients, are stronger than the corresponding impacts on heat stress, partly due to humidity‐related feedback. Likewise, environmental disparities across community areas in Chicago seen for skin temperature are much higher (1.29°C increase for maximum average values per $10,000 higher median income per capita) than disparities in air temperature (0.50°C increase) and wet bulb globe temperature (0.23°C increase). The results call for consistent use of physiologically relevant heat exposure metrics to accurately capture the public health implications of urbanization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Phosphorus availability and leaching losses in annual and perennial cropping systems in an upper US Midwest landscape

Abstract Excessive phosphorus (P) applications to croplands can contribute to eutrophication of surface waters through surface runoff and subsurface (leaching) losses. We analyzed leaching losses of total dissolved P (TDP) from no-till corn, hybrid poplar ( Populus nigra X P. maximowiczii ), switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ), miscanthus ( Miscanthus giganteus ), native grasses, and restored prairie, all planted in 2008 on former cropland in Michigan, USA. All crops except corn (13 kg P ha −1 year −1 ) were grown without P fertilization. Biomass was harvested at the end of each growing season except for poplar. Soil water at 1.2 m depth was sampled weekly to biweekly for TDP determination during March–November 2009–2016 using tension lysimeters. Soil test P (0–25 cm depth) was measured every autumn. Soil water TDP concentrations were usually below levels where eutrophication of surface waters is frequently observed (> 0.02 mg L −1 ) but often higher than in deep groundwater or nearby streams and lakes. Rates of P leaching, estimated from measured concentrations and modeled drainage, did not differ statistically among cropping systems across years; 7-year cropping system means ranged from 0.035 to 0.072 kg P ha −1 year −1 with large interannual variation. Leached P was positively related to STP, which decreased over the 7 years in all systems. These results indicate that both P-fertilized and unfertilized cropping systems may leach legacy P from past cropland management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identifiability and predictability of integer- and fractional-order epidemiological models using physics-informed neural networks

Here we analyze a plurality of epidemiological models through the lens of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that enable us to identify time-dependent parameters and data-driven fractional differential operators. In particular, we consider several variations of the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model by introducing more compartments and fractional-order and time-delay models. We report the results for the spread of COVID-19 in New York City, Rhode Island and Michigan states and Italy, by simultaneously inferring the unknown parameters and the unobserved dynamics. For integer-order and time-delay models, we fit the available data by identifying time-dependent parameters, which are represented by neural networks. In contrast, for fractional differential models, we fit the data by determining different time-dependent derivative orders for each compartment, which we represent by neural networks. We investigate the structural and practical identifiability of these unknown functions for different datasets, and quantify the uncertainty associated with neural networks and with control measures in forecasting the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Simple and Scalable Streaming: The GRETA Data Pipeline

The Gamma Ray Energy Tracking Array (GRETA) is a state of the art gamma-ray spectrometer being built at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to be first sited at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) at Michigan State University. A key design requirement for the spectrometer is to perform gamma-ray tracking in near real time. To meet this requirement we have used an inline, streaming approach to signal processing in the GRETA data acquisition system, using a GPU-equipped computing cluster. The data stream will reach 480 thousand events per second at an aggregate data rate of 4 gigabytes per second at full design capacity. We have been able to simplify the architecture of the streaming system greatly by interfacing the FPGA-based detector electronics with the computing cluster using standard network technology. A set of highperformance software components to implement queuing, flow control, event processing and event building have been developed, all in a streaming environment which matches detector performance. Prototypes of all high-performance components have been completed and meet design specifications.

Cromaz, Mario↗

SECAR: A recoil separator for nuclear astrophysics

Proton-and alpha-capture reactions on unstable proton-rich nuclei power astrophysical explosions like novae and X-ray bursts. Direct measurements of these reactions are crucial for understanding the mechanisms behind these explosions and the nucleosynthesis at such sites. The recoil mass separator, SECAR (SEparator for CApture Reactions) at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory (NSCL) and the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB), has been designed with the required sensitivity to study (p,γ) and (α,γ) reactions, directly at astrophysical energies in inverse kinematics, with radioactive beams of masses up to about A = 65. The complete SECAR system, including two Wien Filters for high mass resolution, has been installed at Michigan State University and is currently being commissioned. The present article introduces the SECAR concept, its scientific goals, and provides an update of the current status of the project.

Tsintari, P↗

Three-Dimensional Network Adjustment of Laser Tracker Measurements for Large-Scale Metrology Applications

The adjustment of laser tracker network measurements for large-scale metrology applications has unique considerations not commonly encountered in the network adjustment approaches generally used in either standard metrology or in traditional geodetic surveying. Many applications that require the measurement accuracy of a laser tracker are confined to small working areas to measure the dimensional quality of manufactured parts. Large-scale metrology applications require the same high measurement accuracy, but over a comparatively larger working area. This paper describes a unified least-squares approach to adjust three-dimensional survey network measurements that takes into account the unique considerations of large-scale metrology networks. The impetus for these unique considerations arises from an application that falls neatly between the disciplines of metrology and geodesy—resembling a mixture of the conditions and requirements from both. In conclusion, this paper will also describe a case study of a large-scale metrology survey network used to align the particle accelerator at Michigan State University’s Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Additively manufactured electrodes for plasma and power-flow studies in high-power transmission lines on the 1-MA MAIZE facility

Power-flow studies on the 30-MA, 100-ns Z facility at Sandia National Laboratories have shown that plasmas in the facility’s magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs) and double post-hole convolute can result in a loss of current delivered to the load. To study power-flow physics on the 1-MA, 100-ns MAIZE facility at the University of Michigan, planar MITL loads and planar post-hole convolute loads have been developed that extend into the lines of sight for various imaging diagnostics on MAIZE. These loads use 3D-printed dielectric support structures lined with thin foils of either aluminum or stainless steel. Here, the metal foils serve as the current-carrying power-flow surfaces, which generate plasma during the current pulse. The foil thickness (50 µm) and widths (11.5–16 mm) are selected to ensure a sufficient linear current density (0.5–0.7 MA/cm) for plasma formation. Laser backlighting (532 nm) and visible-light self-emission imaging capture the overall plasma evolution in the anode–cathode gaps, including the gap closure velocities (1–4 cm/μs).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

High-magnification Faraday rotation imaging and analysis of X-pinch implosion dynamics

An X-pinch load driven by an intense current pulse (>100 kA in ~100 ns) can result in the formation of a small radius, runaway compressional micro-pinch. A micro-pinch is characterized by a hot (>1 keV), current-driven (>100 kA), high-density plasma column (near solid density) with a small neck diameter (1–10 µm), a short axial extent (<1 mm), and a short duration (≲1 ns). With material pressures often well into the multi-Mbar regime, a micro-pinch plasma often radiates an intense, sub-ns burst of sub-keV to multi-keV x rays. A low-density coronal plasma immediately surrounding the dense plasma neck could potentially shunt current away from the neck and thus reduce the magnetic drive pressure applied to the neck. Here, to study the current distribution in the coronal plasma, a Faraday rotation imaging diagnostic (1064 nm) capable of producing simultaneous high-magnification polarimetric and interferometric images has been developed for the MAIZE facility at the University of Michigan. Designed with a variable magnification (1–10×), this diagnostic achieves a spatial resolution of ~35 µm, which is useful for resolving the ~100-μm-scale coronal plasma immediately surrounding the dense core. This system has now been used on a reduced-output MAIZE (100–200 kA, 150 ns) to assess the radial distribution of drive current immediately surrounding the dense micro-pinch neck. The total current enclosed was found to increase as a function of radius, r, from a value of ≈ 50 ± 25 kA at r ≈ 140 µm (at the edge of the dense neck) to a maximal value of ≈150 ± 75 kA for r ≥ 225 µm. This corresponds to a peak magnetic drive pressure of ≈75 ± 50 kbar at r ≈ 225 µm. The limitations of these measurements are discussed in the paper.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (R T ) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and R T was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in R T mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban–rural difference in both SOS and R T was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in R T magnitude in urban areas. Furthermore, these findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space-Dependent Calculation of the Multiplicity Moments for Shells With the Inclusion of Scattering

In recent work, we extended the methodology of multiplicity counting in nuclear safeguards by elaborating the one-speed stochastic transport theory of the calculation of the so-called multiplicity moments, i.e., the factorial moments of the number of neutrons emitted from a fissile item, following a source event from an internal neutron source [spontaneous fission and (α; n) reactions]. Calculations were made for solid spheres and cylinders, with the source being homogeneously distributed within the item. Recent measurements of the Rocky Flats Shells during the Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSIC) campaign conducted by Los Alamos National Laboratory and assisted by the University of Michigan inspired us to extend the model to spherical shell geometry with a point source in the middle of the central cavity. Comparison of the calculated results with the experimental ones indicated that accounting for fission as the only neutron reaction (the standard procedure in the point model, adapted also in our work so far) was not sufficient for reaching good agreement with measurements. The model was therefore extended to include elastic scattering into the one speed formalism, whereas the effect of inelastic scattering was accounted for in an empirical way. After these extensions, good agreement was found between the calculated and the measured values. The paper describes the extension of the theory and provides concrete quantitative results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The FRIB Decay Station: New Horizons with Rare Isotopes

In May 2022, the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB), located on the campus of Michigan State University (MSU), began delivering exotic isotopes to an international community of scientists. New discoveries are now being reported from radioactive decay of neutron-rich nuclei near N = 20 and N = 28.FRIB is expected to produce roughly 80% of the unstable or radioactive isotopes predicted to exist up to uranium (Z = 92). The new user facility is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, and it is operated by MSU. A high-power superconducting linear accelerator, shaped like a paper-clip, drives the production of these rare isotopes by colliding stable nuclei moving at half the speed of light with a rotating, water-cooled graphite tar-get. These collisions cause the primary stable beam to fragment into a wide variety of unstable nuclei, which can be subsequently filtered through a multistage magnetic separator, the Advanced Rare Isotope Separator, and transported to one of several experimental stations. The FRIB Decay Station initiator (FDSi) (see Figure 1) was developed to enable comprehensive radio-active decay studies of the exotic nuclei produced by FRIB and it was used in the first two experiments in 2022. Further, the FDSi is a highly reconfigurable multidetector system with two focal planes (FP1 for discrete spectroscopy and FP2 for total absorption spectroscopy) that can be optimized for the specific science goals of each experiment. It is designed, built, and operated by a community of users with the sup-port of U.S. funding agencies, including the Department of Energy and National Science Foundation.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Self-driven ion deflectometry measurements using MeV fusion-driven protons and accelerated deuterons in the deuterated hybrid x-pinch on the MAIZE LTD generator

Abstract We report on the results of point-projection ion deflectometry measurements from a mid-size university z-pinch experiment. A 1 MA 8 kJ LTD generator at the University of Michigan (called MAIZE) drove a hybrid x-pinch (HXP) with a deuterated polyethylene fiber load to produce a point-like source of MeV ions for backlighting. In these experiments, 2.7 MeV protons were generated by DD beam-target fusion reactions. Due to the kinematics of beam-target fusion, the proton energies were down-shifted from the more standard 3.02 MeV proton energy that is released from the center-of-mass rest frame of a DD reaction. In addition to the 2.7 MeV protons, strongly anisotropic beams of 3 MeV accelerated deuterons were detected by ion diagnostics placed at a radial distance of 90 mm from the x-pinch. Numerical reconstruction of experimental data generated by deflected hydrogen ion trajectories evaluated the total current in the vacuum load region. Numerical ion-tracking simulations show that accelerated deuteron beams exited the ion source region at large angles with respect to the pinch current direction.

Physics↗

Simulation results for a low energy nuclear recoil yields measurement in liquid xenon using the MiX detector

Measuring the scintillation and ionization yields of liquid xenon in response to ultra-low energy nuclear recoil events is necessary to increase the sensitivity of liquid xenon experiments to light dark matter. Neutron capture on xenon can be used to produce nuclear recoil events with energies below 0.3 keV NR via the asymmetric emission of γ rays during nuclear de-excitation. The feasibility of an ultra-low energy nuclear recoil measurement using neutron capture was investigated for the Michigan Xenon (MiX) detector, a small dual-phase xenon time projection chamber that is optimized for a high scintillation gain. Simulations of the MiX detector, a partial neutron moderator, and a pulsed neutron generator indicate that a population of neutron capture events can be isolated from neutron scattering events. Additionally, the rate of neutron captures in the MiX detector was optimized by varying the thickness of the partial neutron moderator, neutron pulse width, and neutron pulse frequency.

detector calibration↗

Overlooked cooling effects of albedo in terrestrial ecosystems

Radiative forcing (RF) resulting from changes in surface albedo is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of global climate change but has not been adequately estimated, including by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, compared with other warming agents. Here, we first present the physical foundation for modeling albedo-induced RF and the consequent global warming impact (GWI Δα ). We then highlight the shortcomings of available current databases and methodologies for calculating GWI Δα at multiple temporal scales. There is a clear lack of comprehensive in situ measurements of albedo due to sparse geographic coverage of ground-based stations, whereas estimates from satellites suffer from biases due to the limited frequency of image collection, and estimates from earth system models (ESMs) suffer from very coarse spatial resolution land cover maps and associated albedo values in pre-determined lookup tables. Field measurements of albedo show large differences by ecosystem type and large diurnal and seasonal changes. As indicated from our findings in southwest Michigan, GWI Δα is substantial, exceeding the RF Δα values of IPCC reports. Inclusion of GWI Δα to landowners and carbon credit markets for specific management practices are needed in future policies. We further identify four pressing research priorities: developing a comprehensive albedo database, pinpointing accurate reference sites within managed landscapes, refining algorithms for remote sensing of albedo by integrating geostationary and other orbital satellites, and integrating the GWI Δα component into future ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the performance of global thermostat adjustment in commercial buildings for load shifting demand response

Abstract Efficiently leveraging new sources of flexibility is critical to mitigating load balancing challenges posed by variable renewable resources. The thermal inertia of commercial buildings allows us to shift their power consumption on minute to hourly timescales to provide demand response to the grid while maintaining occupant comfort. Global thermostat adjustment (GTA) provides a readily available and scalable approach for implementing load shifting demand response using commercial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, since it leverages the inherent sophistication of modern building automation systems. However, there is an incomplete understanding of GTA’s performance for this purpose and its impact on building systems and occupant comfort. In this paper, we explore the performance of GTA by analyzing results from nearly nine hundred experiments on eight university campus buildings in Michigan and North Carolina. Using GTA, we manipulate each building’s thermostat setpoints causing the building to shift its power consumption with respect to its baseline. We quantify the magnitude of HVAC power response, energy use of HVAC subsystems, and impact on occupant comfort. Finally, we connect our experimental results with power system operation using an optimization model that coordinates GTA actions across a large collection of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) to reduce high ramp rates on the grid and mitigate renewable energy curtailment. Overall, our work finds that the impacts on HVAC subsystems are often complex, and may result in additional energy being consumed by fans and terminal reheat. These effects must be considered when using GTA for load shifting. Additionally, we demonstrate that occupant comfort, as assessed by indoor temperature and humidity, can be maintained during GTA events. From a societal perspective, our modeling work finds that the additional renewable energy that can be integrated through the use of GTA strategies eclipses any additional energy consumed by buildings.

Keskar, Aditya (ORCID:0000000244617980)↗

Exploring the environmental drivers of human blastomycosis cases in the Midwestern United States

Blastomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the eastern United States (US) and Canada caused by the inhalation of the fungi Blastomyces spp. Currently, the environmental drivers of disease dynamics are poorly understood. The goal of our work was to explore what environmental conditions are associated with the annual presence of blastomycosis cases, and therefore are potentially explanatory of the ecological niche of Blastomyces. We examined the relationships between reported cases of blastomycosis in three Midwestern US states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) from 2007–2017 in relation to eleven hypothesized environmental conditions, including climate, stream and soil mineral content, and land cover variables. Then, we fit logistic regression models to explore the relationships between the environmental variables and yearly blastomycosis case occurrence. Mean soil moisture, stream sediment mercury content, percent of water within the county, and woody wetlands land cover were all positively associated with the presence of annual cases, with woody wetlands having the most consistent signal across the three states. We also found significant differences in the likelihood of case presence between US states that were not explained by the variables in our model, suggesting state-level differences in case reporting and disease awareness. Our results provide a perspective on potential biological hypotheses to further test regarding environmental controls on the life cycle and ecological niche of Blastomyces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Does the Presence of the Biological Control Agent, Hypena opulenta (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) on Swallow-Worts Deter Monarch Oviposition?

Abstract Invasive black and pale swallow-worts (Vincetoxicum nigrum (L.) Moench, and Vincetoxicum rossicum Kelopow), which are related to milkweeds, can act as ecological traps for monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus L. (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)) as they lay eggs on them that fail to develop. A recently approved biological control agent against swallow-worts, Hypena opulenta Christoph, occupies the same feeding guild on swallow-worts as monarch larvae and could be perceived as a competitor to monarchs. We tested how the presence of this defoliating moth on swallow-worts may influence monarch host selection. In a two-year field experiment, we placed pale swallow-wort plants that were either infested with H. opulenta or noninfested as well as common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca L.), into monarch habitats to assess oviposition rates. In the laboratory, monarchs were either given a choice or not between milkweeds and black swallow-worts with or without H. opulenta. While monarchs strongly preferred common milkweed in the field, up to 25% of the eggs we observed were laid on pale swallow-wort, without preference for swallow-wort with (10.7%) or without (14.3%) H. opulenta. In laboratory choice and no-choice tests, monarchs did not lay any eggs on black swallow-wort, likely because of the long-term laboratory rearing on common milkweeds. Our results confirm that pale swallow-wort may act as an oviposition sink to monarchs in Michigan as well. Since the biological control program is still in its infancy, the nature of interactions between monarchs and H. opulenta may change as the biocontrol agent becomes more widespread.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗