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Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements

Recent climate model developments, established through increased model resolution, have led to substantial improvements in model simulations of the time-evolving, coupled Earth system and its subcomponents. However, regardless of resolution, climate models will always produce climate features and variability that differ from the real world and will be prone to biases. This is due to many remaining uncertainties, such as in parametric and structural model uncertainty, in the initial conditions prescribed, and in the prescribed (scenario) forcing which varies on decadal to centennial timescales. Further model improvements are expected to arise specifically from improved representation of physical processes realized through model-data fusion. This will create an unprecedented opportunity to better exploit a large array of Earth observations, from in situ measurements to weather radars and satellite observations, as the resolved scales of the models approach those of the observations. For this, climate DA will be the central tool to bring models and observations into consistency, by improving initial conditions, inferring uncertain model parameters and structure, and quantifying uncertainty. Generally, there will be advantages and complementarities of adjoint-based smoother approaches, ensemble-based filter approaches, or new ML-inspired approaches. Yet, the ever-increasing model resolution will present growing challenges arising from computational cost, calling for new ways of performing data assimilation and model optimization. Using the complementarity in a hybrid approach, blending tools and concepts from variational, ensemble and ML methods might be what is required in the future. In this context ML could be important to handle non-linear responses, and to better approximate non-Gaussian distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interpreting and Stabilizing Machine-Learning Parametrizations of Convection

Neural networks are a promising technique for parameterizing subgrid-scale physics (e.g., moist atmospheric convection) in coarse-resolution climate models, but their lack of interpretability and reliability prevents widespread adoption. For instance, it is not fully understood why neural network parameterizations often cause dramatic instability when coupled to atmospheric fluid dynamics. This paper introduces tools for interpreting their behavior that are customized to the parameterization task. First, we assess the nonlinear sensitivity of a neural network to lower-tropospheric stability and the midtropospheric moisture, two widely studied controls of moist convection. Second, we couple the linearized response functions of these neural networks to simplified gravity wave dynamics, and analytically diagnose the corresponding phase speeds, growth rates, wavelengths, and spatial structures. To demonstrate their versatility, these techniques are tested on two sets of neural networks, one trained with a super-parameterized version of the Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) and the second with a near-global cloud-resolving model (GCRM). Additionally, even though the SPCAM simulation has a warmer climate than the cloud-resolving model, both neural networks predict stronger heating/drying in moist and unstable environments, which is consistent with observations. Moreover, the spectral analysis can predict that instability occurs when GCMs are coupled to networks that support gravity waves that are unstable and have phase speeds larger than 5 m s -1 . In contrast, standing unstable modes do not cause catastrophic instability. Using these tools, differences between the SPCAM-trained versus GCRM-trained neural networks are analyzed, and strategies to incrementally improve both of their coupled online performance unveiled.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Isotope ratio-based quantification of carbon assimilation highlights the role of plastidial isoprenoid precursor availability in photosynthesis

Abstract Background We report a method to estimate carbon assimilation based on isotope ratio-mass spectrometry (IRMS) of 13 CO 2 labeled plant tissue. Photosynthetic carbon assimilation is the principal experimental observable which integrates important aspects of primary plant metabolism. It is traditionally measured through gas exchange. Despite its centrality in plant research, gas exchange performs poorly with rosette growth habits typical of Arabidopsis thaliana , mutant lines with limited biomass, and accounts poorly for leaf shading. Results IRMS-based carbon assimilation values from plants labeled at different light intensities were compared to those obtained by gas exchange, and the two methods yielded similar values. Using this method, we observed a strong correlation between 13 C content and labeling time (R 2 = 0.999) for 158 wild-type plants labeled for 6 to 42 min. Plants cultivated under different light regimes showed a linear response with respect to carbon assimilation, varying from 7.38 nmol 13 C mg −1 leaf tissue min −1 at 80 PAR to 19.27 nmol 13 C mg −1 leaf tissue min −1 at 500 PAR. We applied this method to examine the link between inhibition of the 2 C -methyl- d -erythritol-4-phosphate (MEP) pathway and suppression of photosynthesis. A significant decrease in carbon assimilation was observed when metabolic activity in the MEP pathway was compromised by mutation or herbicides targeting the MEP pathway. Mutants affected in MEP pathway genes 1-DEOXY- d -XYLULOSE 5-PHOSPHATE SYNTHASE (DXS) or 1-HYDROXY-2-METHYL-2-(E)-BUTENYL 4-DIPHOSPHATE SYNTHASE (HDS) showed assimilation rates 36% and 61% lower than wild type. Similarly, wild type plants treated with the MEP pathway inhibitors clomazone or fosmidomycin showed reductions of 52% and 43%, respectively, while inhibition of the analogous mevalonic acid pathway, which supplies the same isoprenoid intermediates in the cytosol, did not, suggesting inhibition of photosynthesis was specific to disruption of the MEP pathway. Conclusions This method provides an alternative to gas exchange that offers several advantages: resilience to differences in leaf overlap, measurements based on tissue mass rather than leaf surface area, and compatibility with mutant Arabidopsis lines which are not amenable to gas exchange measurements due to low biomass and limited leaf surface area. It is suitable for screening large numbers of replicates simultaneously as well as post-hoc analysis of previously labeled plant tissue and is complementary to downstream detection of isotopic label in targeted metabolite pools.

2C‑methyl‑d‑erythritol 4‑phosphate pathway↗

Coupling of high-resolution mass spectrometer and photosynthesis system for comprehensive leaf volatile metabolite profiling

Background Leaf-level biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions represent a major source of organic gases in the atmosphere, influencing both climate and air quality. These emissions are strongly driven by environmental perturbations, which affect individual plant- to ecosystem-level processes. Uncovering all the BVOCs and understanding how their emissions respond to altered environmental conditions provide critical insights into vegetation-driven changes in atmospheric chemistry. We developed a tandem instrumentation setup that integrates a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) with parts-per-trillion detection limits and a photosynthetic infrared gas exchange system for the untargeted survey of all the BVOCs. This novel system enables simultaneous, real-time monitoring of BVOC emissions and photosynthetic parameters at the leaf level, offering new opportunities to disentangle the physiological and environmental drivers of VOC release. Furthermore, we established the VOC Analysis and Processing Optimization Resource (VAPOR), an open-access software tool designed for rapid data post-processing and the analysis of the variability of hundreds of BVOCs. We assessed the performance of the tandem system under varying background conditions, using standard gas mixtures and a range of environmental factors. Results Blank emissions were substantially lower for major BVOCs (e.g., isoprene) compared to those observed in plant emissions. Despite this, the observation of background-level VOCs highlights the importance of routinely acquiring and accounting for blank measurements in analyses using the coupled instrumentation. Introduction of known VOC concentrations to the system demonstrated a linear response across different compounds with varying molecular compositions, indicating minimal gas loss regardless of chemical moieties within the coupled instrumentation. We applied the optimized system to investigate the physiological mechanisms driving BVOC emissions across different genotypes of poplar and pennycress. The high mass resolution capabilities of the PTR-ToF-MS, coupled with comprehensive VAPOR-driven data analysis, enabled the identification of several important BVOCs, including methanol and methanethiol; these BVOCs displayed substantial variation across pennycress genotypes and showed concentrations ~ 100–350% higher than the blank. Moreover, isoprene emissions varied significantly among poplar genotypes grown in different potting media. Conclusions Tandem instrumentation offers a powerful tool for profiling volatile molecular markers and elucidating their genetic and environmental underpinnings. This approach enhances our ability to predict BVOC emissions in response to genotype by environmental interactions and contributes to a deeper understanding of vegetation responses to environmental changes.

Biogenic volatile organic compounds↗

ORNL_AISD-Ex: Quantum chemical prediction of UV/Vis absorption spectra for over 10 million organic molecules

We performed calculations of electronic excitation energies and associated oscillator strengths based on the time-dependent density-functional tight-binding (TD-DFTB) method [1]. The SMILES (Simplified molecular-input line-entry system) strings of the molecules from the AISD HOMO-LUMO database [2] were converted to a 3D atomistic structure and stored in a PDB file after preliminary geometry optimization using the Merck Molecular Force Field (MMFF94) in RDKit [3,4]. The primary information stored in the PDB file archive consists of Cartesian coordinates for each atom of the molecule in their 3D location in space, along with summary information about the structure, sequence, and experiment. We then performed molecular geometry optimization using the density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) method [5] in the electronic ground state, followed by single-point excited states calculations, as described below. We note that, since RDKit employs a random choice for the generation of molecular conformers, the molecular geometries obtained in this dataset could be different from the ones that were generated when the AISD HOMO-LUMO dataset was generated. The computed excitation energies and associated oscillator strengths can be converted to predict UV/Vis absorption spectra, where excitation energies correspond to absorption peak positions, and oscillator strengths are a good measure of the probability of absorption of visible or UV light in transitions between electronic ground and excited states. The conversion of SMILES strings to 3D Cartesian coordinates of fully DFTB-optimized molecules was successful for 10,502,904 out of 10,502,917 molecules. For these molecules, both geometry optimizations and excited states calculations were successful. The DFTB calculations did not complete for 13 molecules of the original AISD HOMO-LUMO dataset. We still provide information about the geometry of these molecules. The molecules are diverse for chemical compositions (which span 5 non-hydrogen elements: oxygen, carbon, nitrogen, fluorine, sulfur) and molecular size (the smallest molecule contains 5 non-hydrogen atoms, and the largest molecule contains 71 non-hydrogen atoms). The DFTB method [5] is an approximation to density functional theory (DFT), utilizing a minimal basis set in conjunction with a two-center approximation to the electronic Hamiltonian and overlap matrix elements. The DFTB total energy is the sum of an electronic and a repulsive energy contribution, and their calculation requires optimized electronic parameters and diatomic repulsive potential energy functions. All DFTB calculations were performed using the DFTB+ code [6] (version 21.2) and the wrapper for DFTB+ in the Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE) (version 3.22.1) [7], which performed an internal conversion of Cartesian coordinates from PDB to the .gen file format. For the geometry optimizations on the electronic ground state potential energy surface of the molecules, we have chosen the third-order DFTB (DFTB3) method [5c] and employed the matching 3ob set of electronic parameters and repulsive potentials [8]. The empirical γ-damping for hydrogen bond correction, and Grimme's D3 empirical dispersion correction with Becke-Johnson damping (D3(BJ)) [9] dispersion correction was included to improve the description of non-covalent interactions. For excited states single-point energy calculations, we employed the TD-DFTB method in conjunction with the DFTB2 method [5b] and the matching mio [5b,10] and halorg [11] parameter sets. We opted to request the simultaneous calculation of 50 excited states for singlet transition to investigate sufficient number of excited states, based on linear response theory using the Casida equation [Ref: T. A. Niehaus, S. Suhai, F. Della Sala, P Lugli, M. Elstner, G. Seifert, and Th. Frauenheim. Tight-binding approach to time-dependent density-functional response theory. Phys. Rev. B, 63:085108, 2001] and the ARPACK diagonalizer [R. B. Lehoucq, D. C. Sorensen, and C. Yang. Arpack users guide: Solution of large-scale eigenvalue problems by implicitly restarted arnoldi methods, 1997. 46, 51]. The dataset contains 1001 tar.gz files. Tar files are named as “ornl_aisd_ex_1.tar.gz†through “ornl_aisd_ex_1000.tar.gzâ€. Additionally, the 13 failed molecules are in “ornl_aisd_ex_unprocessed.tar.gzâ€. Except for the tar files listed below, each tar file contains 10,500 molecules. Tar files numbered 34, 121, 128, 352, 360, 429, 495, 509, 518, 627, 676, 668, and 862 contain 10,499 molecules each. The last tar file numbered 1000 contains 13,417 molecules. The total size of the uncompressed dataset is over 283 Gigabytes. The code for calculating the electronic excitation energies and statistical analysis of the dataset is provided at the following GitLab repository: https://github.com/ORNL/Analysis-of-Large-Scale-Molecular-Datasets-with-Python Calculating the UV spectrum of a molecule requires performing 3 main operations: 1. Converting the smiles string representation of a molecule into a geometric structure where each atom is assigned XYZ coordinates. The geometric structure is written to the file smiles.pdb. 2. Using smiles.pdb to compute the relaxed geometry of the molecule, which corresponds with the position of the atoms at the position of equilibrium at the ground state. This generates the files band.out, detailed.out, and geo_end.gen. 3. Using geo_end.gen to calculate the UV spectrum of the molecule which is written into the file EXC.DAT. Every molecule in the dataset has its own directory. The files contained in each molecule directory are as follows: 1. geo_end.gen 2. detailed.out 3. band.out 4. EXC.DAT 5. smiles.pdb REFERENCES [1] Niehaus, T. A.; Suhai, S.; Della Salla, F.; Lugli, P.; Elstner, M.; Seifert, G.; Frauenheim, Th. Tight-binding approach to time-dependent density-functional response theory. Phys. Rev. B, 2001, 63, 085108/1-9. [2] Blanchard, A.; Gounley, J.; Metha, K.; Yoo, P.; Irle, S. AISD HOMO-LUMO. DOI: 10.13139/ORNLNCCS/1869409 [3] RDKit: Cheminformatics and Machine Learning Software. 2013, [http://www.rdkit.org] [4] Tosco, P.; Stiefl, N. and Landrum, G. Bringing the MMFF force field to the RDKit: implementation and validation. J Cheminform. 2014, 6, 1–4. [5] a) Porezag, D.; Frauenheim, T.; Kohler, T.; Seifert, G.; Kaschner, Construction of tight-binding-like potentials on the basis of density-functional theory: Application to carbon, R. Phys. Rev. B 1995, 51, 12947-12957; b) Elstner, M.; Porezag, D.; Jungnickel, G.; Elsner, J.; Haugk, M.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S.; Seifert, G.; Phys. Rev. B 1998, 58, 7260-7268; c) Gaus, M.; Cui, Q.; Elstner, M. DFTB3: Extension of the Self-Consistent-Charge Density-Functional Tight-Binding Method (SCC-DFTB), J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2011, 7, 931-948; d) Cui, Q.; Elstner, M. Density functional tight binding: values of semi-empirical methods in an ab initio era, Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 2014, 16, 14368-14377. [6] Hourahine, B. et al. DFTB+, a software package for efficient approximate density functional theory based atomistic simulations, J. Chem. Phys. 2020, 152, 124101/1-19. [7] Larsen, A. H. et al. The atomic simulation environment—a Python library for working with atoms. J. Phys.: Cond. Matter 2017, 29, 273002. [8] Kubillus, M.; Kubar, T.; Gaus, M.; Rezac, J.; Elstner, M. Parameterization of the DFTB3 Method for Br, Ca, Cl, F, I, K, and Na in Organic and Biological Systems, J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2015, 11, 332-342. [9] Brandenburg, J. G.; Grimme, S. Accurate Modeling of Organic Molecular Crystals by Dispersion-Corrected Density Functional Tight Binding (DFTB), J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2014, 5, 1785−1789. [10] a) Niehaus, T. A.; Elstner, M.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S. Application of an approximate density-functional method to sulfur containing compounds. J. Mol. Struct.: THEOCHEM 2001, 541, 185-94; b) Elstner, M.; Hobza, P.; Frauenheim, Th.; Suhai, S.; Kaxiras, E. Hydrogen bonding and stacking interactions of nucleic acid base pairs: A density-functional-theory based treatment. J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 5149-55. [11] Kubar, T.; Bodrog, Z.; Gaus, M.; Köhler, C.; Aradi, B.; Frauenheim, Th.; Elstner, M. Parametrization of the SCC-DFTB Method for Halogens. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2013, 9, 2939-49.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Large-scale cascading of first-order FBG array in a highly multimode coreless fiber using femtosecond laser for distributed thermal sensing

This research focuses on the performance analysis and characterization of a fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) array, consisting of 10 first-order FBGs inscribed by a femtosecond (FS) laser in a highly multimode coreless fiber. The study evaluates the FBG array's ability to function as a distributed thermal sensing (DTS) platform, with the coreless fiber chosen as the sensing element due to its immunity to dopant migration at high temperatures. The design of a large cascaded first-order FBG array effectively eliminates unwanted harmonic peaks across a wide spectrum range. In contrast, higher-order FBGs introduce limitations due to the overlapping of Bragg peaks with harmonics. The FBG array's performance is evaluated by measuring the reflection spectrum of each grating at different temperatures, showing a high temperature sensitivity of 15.05 pm/°C at a Bragg wavelength of 1606.3 nm, with a linear response in the temperature range of 24 - 1100 °C. The FBG array was designed for a spatial resolution of 5 mm. A mode scrambler in the sensing network is employed, which suppresses multimodal interference, characterizes FBG peak visibility, and stabilizes the interference spectrum. The stability of the FBG array is also assessed over 24 hrs at 1100 °C, and it is observed to be stable during thermal treatment. Heat treatment at 1100°C improves the signal to noise ratio of the FBG array, demonstrating the robustness and suitability of the proposed FBG array on highly multimode coreless fiber as a potential sensing platform for DTS applications in harsh environmental conditions, overcoming the issues of dopant migration presented by dopes silica optical fibers at high temperatures.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Predictable third harmonic generation in GaAs metasurfaces through group theory inverse design of meta-atoms

Here we report the group theory-based inverse design of meta-atoms for a dielectric metasurface in GaAs with predictable optical linear response and third harmonic generation (THG). Six sharp Fano resonances have been observed with a corresponding polarization dependence as predicted by group theory and the meta-atom’s symmetry in the D2h point group. THG has been observed for two modes under x-polarization excitation and one mode for y-polarization, in agreement with theoretical symmetry predictions. The polarization-dependent THG aspect ratio was observed to reach as high as 108. Through strategic structural or symmetry-preserving perturbations, it was shown that the THG can be enhanced or reduced by a factor of 7. The highest THG conversion efficiency was estimated to be 3.1×10-7 at the pump intensity of 1.51 MW/cm2. This high THG conversion efficiency indicates that our group theory approach to modal engineering opens a new path towards optical nonlinearity tuning in dielectric metasurfaces.

Aoueille, Andrew↗

Designing order–disorder transformation in high-entropy ferritic steels

Order–disorder transformations hold an essential place in chemically complex high-entropy ferritic steels (HEFSs) due to their critical technological application. The chemical inhomogeneity arising from mixing of multi-principal elements of varying chemistry can drive property altering changes at the atomic scale, in particular short-range order. Using density-functional theory-based linear-response theory, we predict the effect of compositional tuning on the order–disorder transformation in ferritic steels—focusing on Cr–Ni–Al–Ti–Fe HEFSs. We show that Ti content in Cr–Ni–Al–Ti–Fe solid solutions can be tuned to modify short-range order that changes the order–disorder path from BCC-B2 (Ti atomic-fraction = 0) to BCC-B2-L2 1 (Ti atomic-fraction > 0) consistent with existing experiments. Our study suggests that tuning degree of SRO through compositional variation can be used as an effective means to optimize phase selection in technologically useful alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A snapshot review—Fluctuations in quantum materials: from skyrmions to superconductivity

Abstract By measuring a linear response function directly, such as the dynamic susceptibility, one can understand fundamental material properties. However, a fresh perspective can be offered by studying fluctuations. This can be related back to the dynamic susceptibility through the fluctuation–dissipation theorem, which relates the fluctuations in a system to its response, an alternate route to access the physics of a material. Here, we describe a new X-ray tool for material characterization that will offer an opportunity to uncover new physics in quantum materials using this theorem. We provide details of the method and discuss the requisite analysis techniques in order to capitalize on the potential to explore an uncharted region of phase space. This is followed by recent results on a topological chiral magnet, together with a discussion of current work in progress. We provide a perspective on future measurements planned for work in unconventional superconductivity. Graphical abstract We describe a new X-ray tool for material characterization that will offer an opportunity to uncover new physics in quantum materials using coherent, short-pulsed X-rays. We provide details of the method and discuss the requisite analysis techniques in order to capitalize on the potential to explore an uncharted region of phase space. This is followed by recent results on a topological chiral magnet, together with a discussion of current work in progress. We provide a perspective on future measurements planned for work in unconventional superconductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electronic and Geometric effects on Photochemistry of Molecules in Well-Defined Environments

Assemblies of molecular switches at surfaces are of great interest for applications in solar energy conversion, optoelectronic and optomechanical devices. Experimental studies have demonstrated that it is possible to optically probe photoactive molecules in well-defined nanoscale environments. To understand these systems, we have developed a polarizable frozen-density embedding (FDEpol) to model the optical properties of molecules adsorbed on metal clusters. We have demonstrated that the FDEpol method can describe the ground state and linear response properties of strongly coupled systems with results that are in good agreement with exact projection based embedding method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluation of Gamma Ray Production - Quarterly Report FY22Q2

The LLNL team has performed the first systematic study of the effect of two-body weak currents in β decay rates across the entire mass table. In light and medium-mass nuclei, two-body weak currents from chiral effective field theory account for a significant portion of the phenomenological quenching of Gamow-Teller transition matrix elements. We examined the systematic effects of two-body axial currents on Gamow-Teller strength and β-decay rates in heavy nuclei within energy-density functional theory. We extended the charge-changing finiteamplitude pnFAM code to incorporate the contributions of two-body currents to the usual onebody linear response in the Gamow-Teller channel. We found that the two-body currents, as expected, usually quench both summed Gamow-Teller strength and decay rates, but by an amount that decreases as the neutron excess grows; see Fig. 1. In addition, they can enhance individual low-lying transitions, leading to decay rates that are quite different from those that an energy-independent quenching would produce, particularly in neutron-rich nuclei. This new physics capability is unique and provides the highest-fidelity description of β decay on the market. The underlying computational implementation can be reused to calculate γ-strength functions for finite-range nuclear potentials such as the Gogny force, which will allow us to benchmark some of our future developments against published results. The paper is in print in Phys. Rev. C.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

All-digital Sensor System for Distributed Downhole Pressure Monitoring in Unconventional Fields

This project developed and validated (through field tests) a new low-cost all-digital pressure sensing technology for in situ distributed downhole pressure monitoring in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) fields. The all-digital sensing technology uses a built-in non-electric analog-to-digital converter (ADC) to transform the pressure information into a combination of binary (ON/OFF) states. As such, the system does not need downhole electronics for signal conditioning and telemetry. The all-digital sensors can be remotely logged over a long distance, and many sensors can be multiplexed for distributed sensing. Based on a review of unconventional wells in the Lower 48 states, the specification of the sensor is to measure pressure up to 69 MPa (10,000 psi) and temperature up to 250°C. A sensor with a helical bourdon sensing element and a digital signal decoder of 50 mm diameter and 109 mm length was constructed. The helical bourdon sensing element was made of 304L stainless steel and filled with motor oil. The digital converter was made up of 8 digital reading pads constructed of high-temperature epoxy with conductive inserts made of stainless steel. The sensor had a linear response to pressure with an accuracy of 0.14 MPa (20 psi). To withstand the high pressure, the sensor was enclosed in a stainless-steel pressure housing with a wall thickness of 5.5 mm, a diameter of 73 mm, and a length of 724 mm. In the laboratory tests, the sensor exhibited no temperature-related effects on the results. The sensor did not show drift over a 14-day test period at elevated pressure. A field test was conducted where the sensor was deployed in a test wellbore at the Quest drilling test facility to a depth of 0 feet over three weeks. The sensor was attached to the production rods, along with a downhole reference sensor of PPS27 type, which is a permanent downhole monitoring system. During the testing phase, the test well annular blow-out preventer was closed, and the well was pressurized at the surface to 11 MPa (1600 psi). The sensor read the elevated bottom hole pressure of 1500 psi. A multiplexing unit was created for the sensor to deploy multiple sensors on one data transmission line in a distributed approach. The multiplexing unit was tested in a simulated environment of 3048 m (10,000 ft) with five sensors distributed. The sensors were pressurized at different intervals. The multiplexed sensors recorded the correct pressure, and the multiplexing did not interfere with the readings. The proposed concept of an all-digital pressure sensor for harsh downhole environments was designed, manufactured, and tested in the laboratory and tested at the field to a up to 69 MPa and 250°C. This technology has high-temperature tolerance and has potential in downhole areas outside oil and gas, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and geothermal wells. The sensor concept has been proven in this project, but to create a commercially viable product, manufacturing a sensor with a smaller diameter needs to be performed.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Tailoring Carbide Dispersed Steels: A Path to Increased Strength and Hydrogen Tolerance

The use of transition metal carbides is reported for use as a hydrogen trapping mechanism for ferritic and austenitic steel materials. The program combined computational modeling and simulations to guide experiments towards candidate metal carbide traps, both for interfacial and interior trapping. It was found that interfacial trapping is less effective than interior trapping, with the group IVB transition metal carbides being the most effect internal traps with a loss of carbon. The sub-stoichiometric rocksalt structure accommodate the hydrogen atoms in its octahedral interstices. Using percolation theory, carbon loss of approximately 25% or more was sufficient to ensure an interconnected network of vacancies for such trapping from the surface to the internal sites within the carbide. Using this as a guide, the program developed a means to provide a uniform dispersion of ZrC nanoparticles with either Fe or 304L micron-scale powders which was then consolidated by direct current sintering. Electrolytic hydrogen diffusivity studies confirmed the reduction of hydrogen diffusion in the matrix with increasing ZrC content, which was a linear response over the sample range studied (0.01 to 1.0 wt.%). The consolidated material was micro-tensile tested in either a non-hydrogen or hydrogen charge condition and compared to a control with no carbides. Additions up to 0.05 wt.% ZrC increased the yield strength with no loss in ductility in either the non-hydrogen or hydrogen tested condition. ZrC concentrations above this amount further increased the yield strength at the expense of ductility. While these samples had a lower absolute ductility value prior to failure, the relative change in ductility between the non-hydrogen and hydrogen charge states was less for the carbides than that of the control. Metal-rich ZrC nanoparticles were fabricated through a conformal coating process yielding ZrC0.66 particles that were then incorporated into a metal matrix. Notch fatigue testing in a hydrogen environment was conducted where the number of cycles to failure was found to be less in the control than that of the carbide addition. However, the spread in experimental data and the number of samples tested limits a conclusive outcome based on defects noticed in the gauge section of all the powder processed samples. The collective outcomes of this report provide further insight into the mechanisms by which carbides act as hydrogen traps; a means to process such carbides through powder metallurgy; and their associated mechanical performance in either a non-hydrogen or hydrogen-charged condition.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Test and Validate Distributed Coaxial Cable Sensors for in situ Condition Monitoring of Coal-Fired Boiler Tubes

This project aims to test, validate, and advance the technology readiness level (from TRL5 to TRL7) of a novel low-cost distributed stainless-steel/ceramic coaxial cable sensing (SSC-CCS) technology for in situ monitoring of the boiler tube temperature in existing coal-fired power plants. The novel SSC-CCS sensing technology and associated condition-based monitoring (CBM) software to be demonstrated in this project will lead to an improved understanding of the boiler tube failure mechanisms and a prognostic system to improve the overall performance, reliability, and flexibility of the nation’s coal-fired power plant fleet. A boiler tube monitoring system with distributed coaxial cable temperature sensors and a sensor acquisition system was constructed. The high-temperature coaxial cable sensor with a length of 1.3m was made by using a quartz tube (1mm inner diameter (ID) and 6mm outer diameter (OD)) to concentrically separate a 304 stainless-steel (SS) rod (1mm OD) and SS tube (7.94mm OD and 6.16mm ID). The sensor acquisition system includes a vector network analyzer (VNA), a radio frequency (RF) power amplifier, multiple switches and a USB hub. The distributed stainless-steel quartz coaxial cable sensor (SSQ-CCS) had a linear response to temperature with a resolution uncertainty of σ = 0.77℃. To withstand the harsh conditions of 3,300 steam pressures and 800℃ high temperatures, the sensor was shielded by a protective tube made of the same material as the boiler tube. The protection tube had an OD of 1.5 inches and a thickness of 0.25 inches. In the laboratory tests, the sensor showed good sensitivity and fast response. The drift was bounded between +0.33% and -0.67% during a test at 600℃ for 350 hours, indicating good stability of the sensor. A field test was conducted where four sensors were welded on four superheat tubes (SH-Ts) at a coal-fired power station over 400 days. Conventional thermocouples were welded to the superheater tubes alongside the coaxial cable sensors for the purpose of comparison. Two sensors were capable of distributed sensing, with three multiplexed sensing sections. The other two sensors were single section. During the 400-day test period, the power plant experienced startups and shutdowns. At the steady state operations, the temperature of the boiler tube is about 600℃ (1112°F). The sensors recorded the entire coal-firing processes (start-up, steady state, and shut-down) and the glitch event. A GSM modem and a Watchdog were added to the system to ensure reliable data recording. The GSM modem sent daily messages to plant managers and Clemson team to inform the status of the sensor system. If the system was not normally working, the Watchdog would reboot the system automatically. The new coaxial cable based distributed sensing technology has been proven to be successful in both laboratory and field tests. A comprehensive four-stage multi-physics computational framework has been developed to assist the design, optimization, installation, and operation of SSQ-CCS. With the consideration of various operation conditions, we predict the distributions of flue gas temperatures within coal-fired boilers, the temperature correlation between the boiler tube and SSQ-CCS, and the safety of SSQ-CCS. A conditional-based monitoring system is implemented as well. The computational framework developed in this work can guide the future operation of coal-fired plants and other power plants for the safety prediction of boiler operations.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Arctic Impact Identification with Less Data Using Variable Relationships: An Exploratory Express LDRD project.

Regional impacts from sea ice loss can be challenging to separate from internal climate variability, potentially requiring thousands of ensemble members. East Asian wintertime cooling has been linked to sea ice loss from present day conditions in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project with these large ensemble counts. This cooling is theorized to arise from a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Jet response. The strengthened Siberian High can be detected with one fifth the ensemble members needed for the East Asian wintertime cooling in a single model. We thus hypothesize that leveraging relationships between multiple variables in a conditional pathways-based approach would reduce the number of required ensemble members to conclusively attribute East Asian wintertime cooling to future sea ice concentrations. In all analyzed cases, confidence was increased when evaluating sea ice loss’s responsibility for the joint effects of East Asian cooling, East Asian Jet strengthening, and Siberian High strengthening over just East Asian cooling. However, we were not able to confidently attribute future East Asian wintertime cooling to sea ice loss in a single model. We found that significant intra-ensemble variability within single Earth System Models (ESMs) produced highly uncertain forcing response models upon which attribution results were undermined. We were able to show that ensemble mean seasonally averaged metrics from multiple ESMs greatly improved the accuracy of the forcing response linear models and exposed the necessity of all three steps in the pathway (sea ice area, Siberian High pressure, and East Asian Jet speed) for accurate prediction of East Asian wintertime cooling. Although all three steps were necessary, East Asian wintertime cooling possesses a large dependence on the Siberian High pressure, which weakens the confidence associated with overall strong joint-attribution comparing present day and future scenarios. We believe transitioning the pathway nodes to relative changes between the Siberian High and Aleutian Low as well as between the midlatitude westerlies and subtropical jet in the East Asianj Jet region may be able to produce significant attribution more fully dependent upon all three steps. Ultimately, this research demonstrates the simple extensibility of conditional pathways-based attribution to sea ice loss forcing on the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing

Note: This is the final public release version of PNNL-31671 Draft, which was previously released to the sponsor for review. The intent is the public release version will be PNNL-31671. There are no significant changes from the earlier draft version. This unlimited distribution report is the deliverable for M3SF-21PN010202014: Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing. This report summarizes the modeling, analysis, and test plan support completed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the spent nuclear fuel dry storage system seismic test plan through May of 2021. Test plan preparation is planned to continue until the seismic test is completed in July of 2022. This report covers preliminary structural dynamic model development and computer-aided design of test hardware. Based on preliminary modeling, the strongest earthquakes under consideration in this test program provide mechanical loading on the spent nuclear fuel that is comparable to the 30 cm cask drop scenario, although the loads do not appear to be strong enough to cause significant permanent deformation of the fuel assembly spacer grids. The potential for grid deformation during the test will be assessed when the proposed shake table motion becomes available. The weakest earthquakes considered in this test are expected to be comparable to the mechanical loads witnessed in the multimodal transportation test of 2017. The horizontal canister system is predicted to provide nearly-uniform loading condition on the fuel assemblies it contains, while the vertical cask system is predicted to cause non-uniform dynamic loads on the fuel assemblies. In the horizontal case, gravity keeps the fuel assemblies in contact with one basket wall surface unless the loads are strong enough to cause a separation. In the vertical case, the fuel assemblies are relatively long and slender, and seismic motion in the anticipated test range is predicted to cause the assemblies to lean, tilt, and impact the basket walls throughout the seismic event. These gap closures are a nonlinear force transmission condition, so the vertical system is expected to have more variation and variability than the horizontal system. While the horizontal system is expected to have a relatively more linear response than the vertical system, there is still the potential for nonlinear behavior in the horizontal system because the fuel assemblies are free to slide, bounce, and impact the basket walls if the seismic loads are strong enough. One major conclusion of this study is that the use of mixed fuel assemblies in the canister will be acceptable. There are differences in overall system response when the mass, center of gravity, or gaps are changed, but the changes in response are within the bounds of a system that contains completely homogeneous fuel assemblies. One important observation is that the loading for each individual fuel assembly within the vertical canister is expected to be different from that of the others because of nonlinearities in the system. The horizontal canister system is expected to have a more uniform and more predictable response than the vertical canister, making variations in fuel assembly characteristics easier to account for. One important recommendation that comes from this modeling work is to repeat some of the strongest shake tests at different angles, particularly for the vertical cask system. Modeling predicts that strong seismic motion will cause the fuel assemblies to close initial gaps and impact the fuel basket walls when the canister is in the vertical cask configuration. Each shake test will impose a pre-defined three-dimensional time history on the cask system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Hot Water Extraction: Short Rotation Willow, Mixed Hardwoods, and Process Considerations

Short rotation woody crops (SRWC) like shrub willow are highly productive biomass resources of interest for energy and fuel applications. Hot water extraction (HWE) as an upgrading tool to enable the use of willow biomass in pellet applications has been proposed, and is of increasing interest. This study treats willow and mixes of willow and conventional mixed hardwood feedstock with HWE in a tumbling laboratory reactor to elucidate the effects of time, temperature, feedstock mixes, and other process considerations (water:biomass ratio, presteaming, counter-current processing) on mass removals and other extraction outcomes (e.g., sugar, acetate, and furan yields). Results demonstrated alignment of extraction outcomes with P-factor from 155 °C to 175 °C, with a good compromise of removed mass and co-product potential in the range from 575–800 P-factor. The preferred condition was chosen as 575 P-factor. HWE of mixes of willow and hardwood feedstocks showed a linear response of extraction outcomes to willow:hardwood ratios. Testing of water:biomass ratios demonstrated that this is a significant consideration, with each outcome being affected somewhat differently, and indicating that HWE is more diffusion dependent than expected. Presteaming shows little to no effect on extraction outcomes, while multi-stage cooks simulating counter-current operation indicate a significant potential value in counter-current extraction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Direct Mercury Detection in Landfill Leachate Using a Novel AuNP-Biopolymer Carbon Screen-Printed Electrode Sensor

A novel Au nanoparticle (AuNP)-biopolymer coated carbon screen-printed electrode (SPE) sensor was developed through the co-electrodeposition of Au and chitosan for mercury (Hg) ion detection. This new sensor showed successful Hg2+ detection in landfill leachate using square wave anodic stripping voltammetry (SWASV) with an optimized condition: a deposition potential of −0.6 V, deposition time of 200 s, amplitude of 25 mV, frequency of 60 Hz, and square wave step voltage of 4 mV. A noticeable peak was observed at +0.58 V associated with the stripping current of the Hg ion. The sensor exhibited a good sensitivity of ~0.09 μA/μg (~0.02 μA/nM) and a linear response over the concentration range of 10 to 100 ppb (50–500 nM). The limit of detection (LOD) was 1.69 ppb, which is significantly lower than the safety limit defined by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). The sensor had an excellent selective response to Hg2+ in landfill leachate against other interfering cations (e.g., Zn2+, Pb2+, Cd2+, and Cu2+). Fifteen successive measurements with a stable peak current and a lower relative standard deviation (RSD = 5.1%) were recorded continuously using the AuNP-biopolymer-coated carbon SPE sensor, which showed excellent stability, sensitivity and reproducibility and consistent performance in detecting the Hg2+ ion. It also exhibited a good reliability and performance in measuring heavy metals in landfill leachate.

Hwang, Jae-Hoon (ORCID:0000000220100864)↗