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At least 217 records · Page 12

Impact of Land Surface Heterogeneity on Mesoscale Atmospheric Dispersion

Prior numerical modelling studies show that atmospheric dispersion is sensitive to surface heterogeneities, but past studies do not consider the impact of a realistic distribution of surface heterogeneities on mesoscale atmospheric dispersion. While these focussed on dispersion in the convective boundary layer, the present work also considers dispersion in the nocturnal boundary layer and above. Using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) coupled to the Eulerian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the impact of topographic, vegetation, and soil moisture heterogeneities on daytime and nighttime atmospheric dispersion is examined. In addition, the sensitivity to the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived spatial distributions of vegetation characteristics on atmospheric dispersion is also studied. The impact of vegetation and terrain heterogeneities on atmospheric dispersion is strongly modulated by soil moisture, with the nature of dispersion switching from non-Gaussian to near- Gaussian behaviour for wetter soils (fraction of saturation soil moisture content exceeding 40%). For drier soil moisture conditions, vegetation heterogeneity produces differential heating and the formation of mesoscale circulation patterns that are primarily responsible for non-Gaussian dispersion patterns. Nighttime dispersion is very sensitive to topographic, vegetation, soil moisture, and soil type heterogeneity and is distinctly non-Gaussian for heterogeneous land-surface conditions. Sensitivity studies show that soil type and vegetation heterogeneities have the most dramatic impact on atmospheric dispersion. To provide more skillful dispersion calculations, we recommend the utilisation of satellite-derived vegetation characteristics coupled with data assimilation techniques that constrain soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) models to generate realistic spatial distributions of surface energy fluxes.

Wu, Yuling↗

An Internal Thermal Environment Model of an Aluminized Solid Rocket Motor with Experimental Validation

Due to the severity of the internal solid rocket motor (SRM) environment, very few direct measurements of that environment exist; therefore, the appearance of such data provides a unique opportunity to assess current thermal/fluid modeling capabilities. As part of a previous study of SRM internal insulation performance, the internal thermal environment of a laboratory-scale SRM featuring aluminized propellant was characterized with two types of custom heat-flux calorimeters: one that measured the total heat flux to a graphite slab within the SRM chamber and another that measured the thermal radiation flux. Therefore, in the current study, a thermal/fluid model of this lab-scale SRM was constructed using ANSYS Fluent to predict not only the flow field structure within the SRM and the convective heat transfer to the interior walls, but also the resulting dispersion of alumina droplets and the radiative heat transfer to the interior walls. The dispersion of alumina droplets within the SRM chamber was determined by employing the Lagrangian discrete phase model that was fully coupled to the Eulerian gas-phase flow. The P1-approximation was engaged to model the radiative heat transfer through the SRM chamber where the radiative contributions of the gas phase were ignored and the aggregate radiative properties of the alumina dispersion were computed from the radiative properties of its individual constituent droplets, which were sourced from literature. The convective and radiative heat fluxes computed from the thermal/fluid model were then compared with those measured in the lab-scale SRM test firings and the modeling approach evaluated.

Martin, Heath T.↗

Hydrologic connectivity and dynamics of solute transport in a mountain stream: Insights from a long-term tracer test and multiscale transport modeling informed by machine learning

The movement of solutes in a watershed is a complex process with multiple interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. Modeling the dynamics of solute transport along diverse hydrologic pathways within watersheds – from hillslopes to stream channels and in and out of the hyporheic zones – is challenging but critically important, as these processes integrate and contribute to the biogeochemical functioning of the river corridor up to the river network scale. Here we use results from a long-term network-scale tracer test at the H.J. Andrews experimental forest in western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA to inform a multiscale framework for transport in stream corridors. The framework uses a Lagrangian-based subgrid model to represent the effects of hyporheic exchange flow and advective transport at stream network scales. The spatially and temporally resolved stream discharge needed for the transport model is imputed across the river system by an entity-aware long short-term memory network. Modeled concentrations show good agreements with the observations and exhibit power scaling laws indicative of a very wide range of timescales over which hyporheic exchange flow occurs. Our results demonstrate a data-informed modeling framework that links dynamical processes occurring at small scales to a network context to help understand how changes at reach scale cascade into network-scale effects, providing a useful tool for sustainable river basin management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stratospheric aircraft exhaust plume and wake chemistry studies

This report documents progress to date in an ongoing study to analyze and model emissions leaving a proposed High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) from when the exhaust gases leave the engine until they are deposited at atmospheric scales in the stratosphere. Estimates are given for the emissions, summarizing relevant earlier work (CIAP) and reviewing current propulsion research efforts. The chemical evolution and the mixing and vortical motion of the exhaust are analyzed to track the exhaust and its speciation as the emissions are mixed to atmospheric scales. The species tracked include those that could be heterogeneously reactive on the surfaces of the condensed solid water (ice) particles and on exhaust soot particle surfaces. Dispersion and reaction of chemical constituents in the far wake are studied with a Lagrangian air parcel model, in conjunction with a radiation code to calculate the net heating/cooling. Laboratory measurements of heterogeneous chemistry of aqueous sulfuric acid and nitric acid hydrates are also described. Results include the solubility of HCl in sulfuric acid which is a key parameter for modeling stratospheric processing. We also report initial results for condensation of nitric acid trihydrate from gas phase H2O and HNO3.

Miake-Lye, R. C.↗

Characterizing Differences in the Aerosol Plume and Cloud Structure over Ascension Island During the 2016 and 2017 Biomass Burning Seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. In many cases, the complex physical relationships between marine boundary cloud morphology and the environmental conditions in which the clouds exist are not well understood. Such uncertainties arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. It is likely that the absorbing and heating properties of these aerosols influence the microphysical composition and macrophysical arrangement of marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus in this region; however, this has yet to be quantified. The deployment of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility #1 (AMF1) in support of LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 S, 14.35 W). Through the use of AMF1 observations, the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and back trajectories from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), it will be demonstrated that differences in the atmospheric circulation during the two years result in varying aerosol conditions over Ascension Island. When the aerosol plume is overhead, the aerosol loading is higher during the 2016 season as a result of a weaker subtropical high-pressure system. Furthermore, the aerosol plume originates from central Africa in 2016, but further south in 2017. Contrasts in the season-to-season and day-to-day aerosol loading are used to categorize boundary layer cloud and sub-cloud turbulence measurements above Ascension Island using the AMF1 Doppler lidar and cloud radar.

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt↗

Fluidization of Group A Glass Particles: Experiments and Preliminary Validation

This work is aimed at providing reliable high-quality data from fluidization experiments. Geldart Group A glass beads are used as bed material. The fluidizing medium is air at atmospheric pressure which enters the system at 40% relative humidity. The air inlet velocity is varied over a broad range from 2 U mf to 26 U mf , where the minimum fluidization velocity, U mf , is 0.608 cm/s. There is not a significant change in the mean values of differential pressure; however, there are noticeable trends in their standard deviation values. Preliminary validation studies are performed using the open-source software Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The results from Eulerian-Eulerian (MFiX-TFM, two-fluid model) and Eulerian-Lagrangian (MFiX-PIC, particle-in-cell) formulations are compared. The work presented in this report highlights the applicability of MFiX-PIC for large-scale applications, and reveals that PIC simulation offers a suitable alternative to TFM simulation when effects due to multiple components or polydispersity are significant. PIC modeling provides a readily extendible framework for such systems. However, PIC models do rely on an empirical closure for inter-particle stress. Some solution discrepancies were evident in MFiX-PIC predictions which require further analysis. As such, the study underlines the need for a systematic approach to quantify the sources of numerical uncertainty within the PIC model. However, even with known empiricism, MFiX-PIC has demonstrated considerable potential in analyzing gas-solid systems. The results obtained are encouraging and warrant further investigation to improve the predictive capability of MFiX-PIC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interacting fractons in 2+1-dimensional quantum field theory

We analyze, in perturbation theory, a theory of weakly interacting fractons and non-relativistic fermions in a 2+1 dimensional Quantum Field Theory. In particular we compute the 1-loop corrections to the self energies and interaction vertex, and calculate the associated 1-loop Renormalization Group flows of the coupling constants. Surprisingly, we find that the fracton-fermion coupling does not flow due to an emergent coordinate-dependent symmetry of the effective Lagrangian, making this model a well-defined quantum field theory. We provide additional discussions on the regularization and renormalization of interacting fractonic theories, as well as both qualitative and quantitative remarks regarding the theory at finite temperature and finite chemical potential.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Cloud condensation nuclei activity of internally mixed particle populations at a remote marine free troposphere site in the North Atlantic Ocean

Here, this study reports results from research conducted at the Observatory of Mount Pico (OMP), 2225 m above mean sea level on Pico Island in the Azores archipelago in June and July 2017. We investigated the chemical composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities of long-range transported free tropospheric (FT) particles. FLEXible PARTicle Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) simulations reveal that most air masses that arrived at the OMP during the sampling period originated in North America and were highly aged (average plume age > 10 days). We probed size-resolved chemical composition, mixing state, and hygroscopicity parameter ($\mathcal{κ}$) of individual particles using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (CCSEM-EDX). Based on the estimated individual particle mass from elemental composition, we calculated the mixing state index, $χ$. During our study, FT particle populations were internally mixed ($χ$ of samples are between 53% and 87%), owing to the long atmospheric aging time. We used data from a miniature Cloud Condensation Nucleus Counter (miniCCNC) to derive the hygroscopicity parameter, $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC . Combining $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC and FLEXPART, we found that air masses recirculated above the North Atlantic Ocean with lower mean altitude had higher $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC due to the higher contribution of sea salt particles. We used CCSEM-EDX and phase state measurements to predict single-particle $\mathcal{κ}$ ($\mathcal{κ}$ CCSEM-EDX ) values, which overlap with the lower range of $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC measured below 0.15 % SS. Therefore, CCSEM-EDX measurements can be useful in predicting the lower bound of $\mathcal{κ}$, which can be used in climate models to predict CCN activities, especially in remote locations where online CCN measurements are unavailable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct numerical simulation of turbulent dispersion of evaporative aerosol clouds produced by an intense expiratory event

Airborne particles are a major route for transmission of COVID-19 and many other infectious diseases. When a person talks, sings, coughs, or sneezes, nasal and throat secretions are spewed into the air. After a short initial fragmentation stage, the expelled material is mostly composed of spherical particles of different sizes. While the dynamics of the largest droplets are dominated by gravitational effects, the smaller aerosol particles, mostly transported by means of hydrodynamic drag, form clouds that can remain afloat for long times. In subsaturated air environments, the dependence of pathogen-laden particle dispersion on their size is complicated due to evaporation of the aqueous fraction. Particle dynamics can significantly change when ambient conditions favor rapid evaporation rates that result in a transition from buoyancyto-drag dominated dispersion regimes. To investigate the effect of particle size and evaporation on pathogen-laden cloud evolution, a direct numerical simulation of a mild cough was coupled with an evaporative Lagrangian particle advection model. The results suggest that while the dispersion of cough particles in the tails of the size distribution are unlikely to be disrupted by evaporative effects, preferential aerosol diameters (30-40 μm) may exhibit significant increases in the residence time and horizontal range under typical ambient conditions. Using estimations of the viral concentration in the spewed fluid and the number of ejected particles in a typical respiratory event, we obtained a map of viral load per volume of air at the end of the cough and the number of virus copies per inhalation in the emitter vicinity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Lagrangian displacement field estimators in cosmology

The late-time nonlinear Lagrangian displacement field is highly correlated with the initial field, so reconstructing it could enable us to extract primordial cosmological information. Our previous work carefully studied the displacement field reconstructed from the late-time density field using the iterative method proposed and found that it does not fully converge to the true, underlying displacement field (e.g., ~8 % offset at k ~ 0.2 h Mpc –1 at z = 0.6 ). We also constructed the Lagrangian perturbation theory model for the reconstructed field, but the model could not explain the discrepancy between the true and the reconstructed fields in the previous work. Here, the main sources of the discrepancy were speculated to be a numerical artifact in the displacement estimator due to the discreteness of the sample. In this paper, we develop two new estimators of the displacement fields to reduce such a numerical discreteness effect, the normalized momentum estimator and the rescaled resumed estimator. We show that the discrepancy reported is not due to the numerical artifacts. We conclude that the method cannot fully reconstruct the shape of the nonlinear displacement field at the redshift we studied, while it is still an efficient baryon acoustic oscillation reconstruction method. In parallel, by properly accounting for the UV-sensitive term in a reconstruction procedure with an effective field theory approach, we improve the theoretical model for the reconstructed displacement field, by almost 5 times, from ~15% to the level of a few percent at k ~ 0.2 h Mpc –1 at the redshift z = 0.6.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exploring the elevated water vapor signal associated with the free tropospheric biomass burning plume over the southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6-7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume-vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ~5-6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (~6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Particle phase-state variability in the North Atlantic free troposphere during summertime is determined by atmospheric transport patterns and sources

Abstract. Free tropospheric aerosol particles have important but poorly constrained climate effects due to transformations of their physicochemical properties during long-range transport. In this study, we investigate the chemical composition and provide an overview of the phase states of individual particles that have undergone long-range transport over the North Atlantic Ocean in June and July 2014, 2015, and 2017 to the Observatory of Mount Pico (OMP) in the Azores. The OMP is an ideal site for studying long-range-transported free tropospheric particles because local emissions have a negligible influence and contributions from the boundary layer are rare. We used the FLEXible PARTicle Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) to determine the origins and transport trajectories of sampled air masses and found that most of them originated from North America and recirculated over the North Atlantic Ocean. The FLEXPART analysis showed that the sampled air masses were highly aged (average plume age >10 d). Size-resolved chemical compositions of individual particles were probed using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (CCSEM-EDX) and scanning transmission X-ray microscopy with near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM-NEXAFS). CCSEM-EDX results showed that the most abundant particle types were carbonaceous (∼ 29.9 % to 82.0 %), sea salt (∼ 0.3 % to 31.6 %), and sea salt with sulfate (∼ 2.4 % to 31.5 %). We used a tilted stage interfaced within an environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) to determine the phase states of individual submicron particles. We found that most particles (∼ 47 % to 99 %) were in the liquid state at the time of collection due to inorganic inclusions. Moreover, we also observed substantial fractions of solid and semisolid particles (∼ 0 % to 30 % and ∼ 1 % to 42 %, respectively) during different transport patterns and events, reflecting the particles' phase-state variability for different atmospheric transport events and sources. Combining phase state measurements with FLEXPART CO tracer analysis, we found that wildfire-influenced plumes can result in particles with a wide range of viscosities after long-range transport in the free troposphere. We also used temperature and RH values extracted from the Global Forecast System (GFS) along the FLEXPART-simulated path to predict the phase state of the particles during transport and found that neglecting internal mixing with inorganics would lead to an overestimation of the viscosity of free tropospheric particles. Our findings warrant future investigation aiming at the quantitative assessment of the influence of internal mixing on the phase states of the individual particles. This study also provides insights into the chemical composition and phase state of free tropospheric particles, which can help models to reduce uncertainties about the effects of ambient aerosol particles on climate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Back Trajectories during SAIL

This data set contains air mass back trajectories generated during the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT, Stein et al. 2015, Rolph et al. 2017). For each hour from January 1, 2021 to June 30, 2023, a 96-hour back trajectory was initiated at the SAIL sampling site, starting 100 m above ground level. The calculations used the GDAS meteorological data set with model vertical velocity. The files within this dataset show location and meteorological parameters of the back trajectory analysis. There are 21 columns within each data file. The first 2 columns pertain to back trajectory parameters: the trajectory number (which is always 1) and the meteorological grid number. The next 9 columns pertain to spatiotemporal information: the year, month, day, hour (0-23), and minute of the trajectory, the previous time of the trajectory (in negative hours), and the airmass location (latitude, longitude, and height in m AGL). The rest of the parameters within each file pertains to surface and meteorological characteristics of the airmass: pressure (in hPa), potential temperature (in K), temperature (in K), precipitation rate (in mm/hr), mixing depth (in m), relative humidity (in % relative to liquid water), specific humidity (in g/kg), H2O mixing ratio (in g/kg), underlying terrain height (in meters above sea level), and incoming radiation (in W/m^2).

back trajectory↗

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Structure and Growth of the Marine Boundary Layer

LANDSAT visible imagery and a one-dimensional Lagrangian boundary layer model were used to hypothesize the nature and the development of the marine boundary layer during a winter episode of strong seaward cold air advection. Over-water heating and moistening of the cold, dry continental air is estimable from linear relations involving horizontal gradients of the near-surface air temperature and humidity. A line of enhanced convection paralleling the Atlantic U.S. coast from south of New York Bay to the vicinity of Virginia Beach, VA was attributed to stronger convergence at low levels. This feature was characterized as a mesoscale front. With the assistance of a three-dimensional mesoscale boundary layer model, initialized with data obtained from the MASEX, the marine boundary layer can be mapped over the entire Atlantic coastal domain and the evolution of the boundary layer can be studied as a function of different characteristics of important surface level forcings. The effects on boundary layer growth due to the magnitude and pattern of sea surface temperature, to the shape of the coastline, and to atmospheric conditions, such as the orientation of the prevailing wind are examined.

Mccumber, M.↗

A quasi-permeable barrier in the equatorial lower stratosphere

Analyses of global isentropic maps of potential vorticity from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) data assimilation system reveal that there is a region of strong meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients in the equatorial lower stratosphere. A semi-Lagrangian tracer transport model is used to show that this region of strong PV gradients acts as a quasipermeable barrier to cross-equator mass exchange on isentropic surfaces.

Chen, Ping↗

Data Assimilation in the Ocean and in the Atmosphere: What Should be Next?

As part of the International Symposium on Assimilation of Observation in Meteorology and Oceanography, a panel discussion was held on the evening of 15 March 1995. The purpose of this panel discussion was focus on what the next major areas of research in data assimilation should be. The panelists had five minutes each for short presentations (Kalman filters, representers, etc.) and this was followed by an open discussion. This preprocessing will require a good understanding of the fine-scale phenomena. Least square methods such as Kalman filters and variational schemes are inefficient estimators of non-Gaussian field such as chemical traces. Regardless of the modeling technique employed (Lagrangian methods seem best), a least squares assimilation scheme will smear fine structure. The estimator of maximum likelihood must be sought, by examination of tracer probability distributions.

Kalnay, Eugenia↗

Simulation of Hypervelocity Impact on Aluminum-Nextel-Kevlar Orbital Debris Shields

An improved hybrid particle-finite element method has been developed for hypervelocity impact simulation. The method combines the general contact-impact capabilities of particle codes with the true Lagrangian kinematics of large strain finite element formulations. Unlike some alternative schemes which couple Lagrangian finite element models with smooth particle hydrodynamics, the present formulation makes no use of slidelines or penalty forces. The method has been implemented in a parallel, three dimensional computer code. Simulations of three dimensional orbital debris impact problems using this parallel hybrid particle-finite element code, show good agreement with experiment and good speedup in parallel computation. The simulations included single and multi-plate shields as well as aluminum and composite shielding materials. at an impact velocity of eleven kilometers per second.

Fahrenthold, Eric P.↗