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DOE OSTI2026

Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of internal variability. Separating the forced response from internal variability can be addressed in climate models by using a large ensemble to average over different possible realizations of internal variability. However, with only one realization of the real world, it is a major challenge to isolate the forced response directly in observations. In the Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), contributors used existing and newly developed statistical and machine learning methods to estimate the forced response over 1950–2022 within individual realizations of the climate system. Participants used neural networks, linear inverse models, fingerprinting methods, and low-frequency component analysis, among other approaches. These methods were trained using large ensembles from multiple climate models and then applied to observations. Here, we evaluate method performance within large ensembles and investigate the estimates of the forced response in observations. Our results show that many different types of methods are skillful for estimating the forced response in climate models, though the relative skill of individual methods varies depending on the variable and evaluation metric. Methods with comparable skill in models can give a wide range of estimates of the forced response pattern in observations, illustrating the epistemic uncertainty in forced response estimates. ForceSMIP gives new insights into the forced response in observations, its uncertainty, and methods for its estimation.

Climate attribution↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conductivity space isotherm behavior in quantum anomalous Hall devices

The quantum Hall effect (QHE) has enhanced accessibility to measure and disseminate electrical units, owed in part to the recently redefined International System of Units in 2019. Graphene remains one of the preferred options to realize the ohm despite the limitations of high magnetic fields to produce a robust QHE. Topological insulators, on the other hand, show promise in providing quantized resistance via the quantum anomalous Hall effect, a phenomenon that removes the need for magnetic fields during operation. To optimize future devices for metrological applications, it is important to gain a better understanding of magnetically doped topological insulators like Cr-doped bismuth antimony telluride. The application of differential conductivity space analyses offers a more sensitive way to analyze the data and distinguish between 2D and 3D transport behaviors. This is particularly important in thin films, where the transition between 2D and 3D behavior can be subtle. The ability to confidently determine the dimensionality of the transport is crucial for selecting appropriate theoretical models for future device optimization. Furthermore, this work identifies variable range hopping as the dominant transport mechanism in the 2D regime using a rigorous statistical analysis (via the Bayes factor). These elements assist in the understanding of microscopic processes that govern charge transport in these materials.

Tran, N. T. M. [National Inst. of Standards and Te↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data for Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach

This data package contains raw data, data output, and code of photosynthetic temperature response curves from tropical forests. Data are used in "Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach". The research investigates how photosynthetic optimum temperatures and shapes of photosynthetic temperature response curves varies across tropical forest climates and growth conditions. Growth climate variables include mean annual temperature, max and max temperature, diurnal temperature range, and aridity index. Meta-analysis combines 18 datasets with representation from Africa, Oceana, North American, and South America. Growth conditions analyzed considers deciduousness, successional status, light conditions, and whether plants are grown in situ or ex situ. All files, except for the raw datafile (Tropical_MetaAnalysis_Master_3.8.22_Edit.csv), have been processed using R code, which is provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multicycle large-eddy simulations of a direct-injection hydrogen-fueled optical engine

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is a carbon-free chemical energy carrier and one promising solution for achieving effective decarbonization of the transportation sector, particularly for internal combustion engines (ICEs). With a focus on ICEs, and compared to port-fuel injection, direct injection (DI) of gaseous H 2 during the compression stroke offers potential advantages, which include backfire avoidance and reduction of preignition occurrence. In these last two decades, much research, experimental and numerical, has been devoted to understanding H 2 's mixing and combustion processes in ICEs. Computational fluid dynamics modeling efforts commonly rely on unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) turbulence frameworks, mostly due to their computational affordability. However, many authors have pointed out the opportunity to perform large-eddy simulations (LESs) to investigate the cyclic variability of H 2 engines and assess potential advantages of using LES in place of URANS, especially for lean operation. This study addresses this knowledge gap and presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of the H 2 DI process in an optical engine operating at relatively low tumble conditions, using multicycle LESs. In conclusion, the manuscript presents a thorough validation of the results against experimental data available from the literature as well as direct comparison with URANS, demonstrating the feasibility of multicycle LESs for CFD modeling of DI H 2 -fueled ICEs.

Direct injection↗

DOE OSTI2020

Factors Impacting Nuclear Energy Share in U.S. Energy Markets

The purpose of this report is to collate information and findings from recent studies conducted by national and international bodies/institutes to identify approaches for maintaining/enhancing the role of nuclear energy in the current and future energy mix of the United States. This report shows how nuclear generation grew quickly to provide 20% of U.S. electricity, sustaining that level for three decades without the benefit of new construction, but is now projected to decline going forward. Nuclear construction costs in the U.S. spiraled out of control, ending construction for two decades and the recent resumption of construction has continued the pattern of schedule delays and cost overruns. However, nuclear operations exhibited strong learning, achieving and sustaining the highest capacity factor of any electricity generation technology and license extensions and uprates have sustained nuclear market share. The share of nuclear energy in the U.S. electricity market is projected to decline by ~1/3rd over the next 30 years The report provides an overview of how the markets work in theory and in practice. It indicates how market deregulation and clean energy policies have created conditions where nuclear plants are being retired for economic rather than technical reasons. The report also shows how many of the markets do not in practice have free competition but instead have outcomes that are being determined more and more by policy instead of market forces. While electricity costs from existing nuclear plants are low, electricity from new builds is projected to be too expensive to be competitive head-to-head with natural gas, even for nth-of-a-kind costs. Wind and solar energy have enjoyed an extended period of sustained subsidy. This protected environment has resulted in a sustained reduction in plant level costs to the point that some of these Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are becoming competitive even if their direct subsidies are removed. But plant level costs underestimate total VRE costs which include a number of system-level externalities. The incremental system value of additional VRE capacity was shown to decline as market share increases, with solar value declining more quickly than wind. The report closes with examination of a possible future for nuclear generation as part of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector. This approach avoids direct competition with natural gas. The two options for achieving 100% decarbonization are to use only renewables or to use all zero emissions technologies, and the report shows the second approach is much less expensive than the first.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reinforcement learning applied to dilute combustion control for increased fuel efficiency

To reduce the modeling burden for control of spark-ignition engines, reinforcement learning (RL) has been applied to solve the dilute combustion limit problem. Q-learning was used to identify an optimal control policy to adjust the fuel injection quantity in each combustion cycle. A physics-based model was used to determine the relevant states of the system used for training the control policy in a data-efficient manner. The cost function was chosen such that high cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV) at the dilute limit was minimized while maintaining stoichiometric combustion as much as possible. Experimental results demonstrated a reduction of CCV after the training period with slightly lean combustion, contributing to a net increase in fuel conversion efficiency of 1.33%. To ensure stoichiometric combustion for three-way catalyst compatibility, a second feedback loop based on an exhaust oxygen sensor was incorporated into the fuel quantity controller using a slow proportional-integral (PI) controller. The closed-loop experiments showed that both feedback loops can cooperate effectively, maintaining stoichiometric combustion while reducing combustion CCV and increasing fuel conversion efficiency by 1.09%. Finally, a modified cost function was proposed to ensure stoichiometric combustion with a single controller. In addition, the learning period was shortened by half to evaluate the RL algorithm performance on limited training time. Experimental results showed that the modified cost function could achieve the desired CCV targets, however, the learning time was reduced by half and the fuel conversion efficiency increased only by 0.30%.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Study 2022-2024: Sample-Based Surface Water Dissolved Inorganic Carbon, Dissolved Organic Carbon, Total Nitrogen, Stable Isotopes, and Total Suspended Solids from across Multiple Watersheds in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of temporal variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. The dataset provides geochemistry data generated from samples collected at bi-weekly or monthly intervals at six sites across the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. Sample and sensor data from previous years (2021-2022) can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1898912 and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1892054, respectively. Related sensor data from 2022-2024 will be published separately. This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) field metadata; (5) dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and averages; (6) dissolved organic carbon (DOC; reported as non-purgeable organic carbon; NPOC) and averages; (7) total dissolved nitrogen (TN) and averages; (8) total suspended solids (TSS); (9) stable isotopes; (10) surface water sampling protocol; (11) sensor protocol; (12) methods codes; and (13) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file. All files are .csv or .pdf. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. For data and scripts associated with "Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest" (Butler et al., 2026), go to https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3025481

18-O↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗

DOE OSTI2025

The OCEAN ICE mooring compilation: a standardised, pan-Antarctic database of ocean hydrography and current time series

Continuous moored time series of temperature, salinity, pressure and current speed and direction are of great importance for understanding the continental shelf and under-ice-shelf dynamics and thermodynamics that govern water mass transformations and ice melting in and around Antarctic marginal seas. In these regions, icebergs and sea ice make ship-based mooring deployment and recovery challenging. Nevertheless, over decades, expeditions around the fringe of Antarctica sporadically deployed and recovered hundreds of moored instruments, including those facilitated through ice shelves boreholes. These datasets tend to be archived in a wide range of data centres, with, to our knowledge, no clear format standardisation. As a result, systematic analysis of historical mooring time series in the marginal seas is often challenging. Here we present the first version of a standardised pan-Antarctic moored hydrography and current time series compilation, with broad international contributions from data centres, research institutes and individual data owners. The mooring records in this compilation span over five decades, from the 1970s to the 2020s, providing an opportunity for a systematic study of the pan-Antarctic water mass transport and shelf connectivity. As a demonstration of the utility of this compilation, we present spectral analysis of the compiled current velocity time series, which unsurprisingly shows the dominating presence of tidal variability within most records. This component of the variability is fitted using multi-linear regression to tidal frequencies, and the tidal fit is removed from the original time series to leave de-tided variability. Given the limited record durations to months to years, de-tided variability is dominated by synoptic (3–10 d period), intraseasonal (10–80 d) and seasonal (∼6 months–1 year) signals. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy integrated within frequency bands is presented and discussed within respective regional contexts, and future avenues of research are proposed. This data compilation is assembled under the endorsement of Ocean-Cryosphere Exchanges in ANtarctica: Impacts on Climate and the Earth System (OCEAN ICE) project (https://ocean-ice.eu/, last access: 23 October 2025) funded by the European Commission and UK Research and Innovation. It is available and regularly updated in NetCDF format with the SEANOE database at https://doi.org/10.17882/99922 (Zhou et al., 2024a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Truncating 2D Framework Materials Down to a Single Pore: Synthetic Approaches and Opportunities

Here, in this Accounts article, we summarize our recent work on truncating conjugated two-dimensional framework materials down to a single pore, or a single macrocycle. Conjugated 2D architectures have emerged as one of the most synthetically adaptable motifs for coupling semiconductivity and porosity in metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) and covalent organic frameworks (COFs). However, despite their prevalence, 2D architectures have several limitations. In particular, the strong interlayer π–π stacking can limit both processability and the accessibility of internal active sites. We have found that simple macrocycles preserve key aspects of 2D framework structure and function, including porosity and out-of-plane electrical conductivity, while providing improved processability, surface tunability, and mass transport properties. In this article, we first describe our synthetic approach and general design considerations. Specifically, we show how ditopic analogues of the tritopic ligands commonly found in the synthesis of 2D MOFs and COFs can be used to achieve a diverse library of conjugated macrocycles that resemble fragments of semiconducting frameworks in both form and function. The length of the peripheral side chains, the size of the aromatic core, and the solubility of intermediates are all key variables in favoring selective macrocycle formation over undesired linear polymers and oligomers. Next, we highlight the unique advantages that macrocycles provide, including improved processability, atomically precise surface tunability, and greater active site accessibility. In particular, the identity of the peripheral side chains dramatically impacts both solubility and colloidal stability as well as crystal size and morphology. We further show how the solution processability and nanoscale dimensions of macrocycles can simplify electronic device fabrication and improve electrochemical performance. Finally, we end with a forward-looking discussion on how macrocycles offer a unique bridge between conjugated molecules and extended frameworks, enabling new application areas and fundamental science.

charge transport↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS): Task 6.0 Deliverable – CarbonSAFE Phase III Readiness

The OASIS CarbonSAFE Phase II Project OASIS (Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County) is a geologic and reservoir characterization study designed to evaluate deep saline formations for potential long-term carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage in central Alabama near the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and Alabama Power’s Plant Gaston. The project centers on understanding the potential of the Cambro-Ordovician Knox Group and underlying strata such as the Conasauga and Rome Formations for geologic storage of CO 2 . These formations were investigated as part of SECARB-USA (DE-FE0031830) and Project OASIS through the drilling of two stratigraphic test wells to obtain electronic well logs, core, and sidewall core plugs. These data provide direct measurements of porosity, permeability, and lithologic variability critical for reservoir characterization. Complementing the well program, a limited 2D seismic survey was conducted to help select the site for Westover #2 as part of SECARB-USA (DE-FE0031830), and a more regional Seismic Exchange (SEI) seismic survey was licensed and interpreted to define structural and stratigraphic frameworks in a new Static Earth Model (SEM), map reservoir continuity, and to identify potential sealing intervals. Integrated with geologic and reservoir modeling, these datasets form the basis for evaluating storage capacity, injectivity, and containment. While this document endeavors to provide readers with a high-level overview of Project OASIS activities and its suitability for subsequent CarbonSAFE Phases, such as a Phase III effort. Other project deliverables and milestones will provide more details on individual subjects.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing the hadronization of parton showers using the HOMER method

We update the HOMER method, a technique to solve a restricted version of the inverse problem of hadronization – extracting the Lund string fragmentation function f(z) from data using only observable information. Here, we demonstrate its utility by extracting f(z) from synthetic Pythia simulations using high-level observables constructed on an event-by-event basis, such as multiplicities and shape variables. Four cases of increasing complexity are considered, corresponding to e + e − collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 90 ≥ v producing either a string stretched between a $q$ and $\bar{q}$ containing no gluons; the same string containing one gluon g with fixed kinematics; the same but the gluon has varying kinematics; and the most realistic case, strings with an unrestricted number of gluons that is the end-result of a parton shower. We demonstrate the extraction of f(z) in each case, with the result of only a relatively modest degradation in performance of the HOMER method with the increased complexity of the string system.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of photonuclear jet production in ultraperipheral Pb + Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV with the ATLAS detector

In ultrarelativistic heavy ion collisions at the LHC, each nucleus acts a sources of high-energy real photons that can scatter off the opposing nucleus in ultraperipheral photonuclear (𝛾 + 𝐴) collisions. Hard scattering processes initiated by the photons in such collisions provide a novel method for probing nuclear parton distributions in a kinematic region not easily accessible to other measurements. ATLAS has measured production of dijet and multijet final states in ultraperipheral Pb + Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV using a dataset recorded in 2018 with an integrated luminosity of 1.72 nb −1 . Photonuclear final states are selected by requiring a rapidity gap in the photon direction; this selects events where one of the outgoing nuclei remains intact. Jets are reconstructed using the anti-𝑘 t algorithm with radius parameter, 𝑅 = 0.4. Triple-differential cross sections, unfolded for detector response, are measured and presented using two sets of kinematic variables. The first set consists of the total transverse momentum (𝐻 T ), rapidity, and mass of the jet system. The second set uses 𝐻 T and particle-level nuclear and photon parton momentum fractions, 𝑥 A and 𝑧 𝛾 , respectively. The results are compared with leading-order perturbative QCD calculations of photonuclear jet production cross sections, where all leading order predictions using existing fits fall below the data in the shadowing region. More detailed theoretical comparisons will allow these results to strongly constrain nuclear parton distributions, and these data provide results from the LHC directly comparable to early physics results at the planned Electron-Ion Collider.

Parton distribution functions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fully implicit crystal plasticity models representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters

Here, this work describes a crystal plasticity formulation combining several mathematical, numerical, and implementation choices to produce a highly efficient model. Specifically, the key choices in the implementation are (1) representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters, (2) implementing a fully coupled implicit time integration for the elastic stretch, the crystal orientations, and the model internal variables, (3) implementing the model in the NEML2 constitutive modeling framework, based on PyTorch, to vectorize the calculations and port the computation to GPUs and other hardware accelerators, and (4) an exact implementation of the consistent tangent matrix, even for arbitrary coupling to other field variables beyond the displacements, like temperature, neutron fluence, etc. The first two features of the model are, to our knowledge, novel. The paper considers each of these choices individually as well as the final model as a whole. This includes a full description of modified Rodrigues parameters, their advantages over other representations of orientations, the mathematical formulae and tools required to implement a model with modified Rodrigues parameters, and a detailed description of the geometry of the space of modified Rodrigues parameters (in an appendix). It also includes a description of a fully implicit time integration scheme for the orientations and the advantages in representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters in implementing such a model. The work then assess, via numerical examples, the advantages of fully coupled implicit time integration versus more common decoupled and explicit time integration schemes. These studies demonstrate the computational advantages of fully coupled integration versus other time integration algorithms, though the performance of the competing models depends on the complexity of the underlying single crystal model. The study concludes by demonstrating that the choice of time integration method affects the sharpness of the predicted texture, with explicit methods for integrating the orientations overestimating texture sharpness and implicit methods underestimating texture sharpness.

Crystal plasticity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance of pumped counterflow virtual impactors to study aerosol interactions with laboratory generated warm clouds

Pumped Counterflow Virtual Impactors (PCVI) are designed to separate aerosols based on aerodynamic diameter, which is particularly useful for isolating cloud droplets and ice crystals from smaller particles. However, the PCVI transmission efficiency (TE) values reported in the literature show considerable variability, and little information is available on the TEs for cloud liquid droplets. Here, we determined the optimal flow conditions for PCVI sampling for different activation ratios from the MTU Pi-cloud chamber, highlighting the conditions that maximize droplet residual sampling while minimizing interstitial transmission. Even for a lower limit cloud activation ratio = 1:10, an add flow of 1.5 LPM achieves a residual fraction greater than 0.80, with a droplet TE of ∼15% for typical Pi-Chamber droplets with diameters between 3.5 to 10 µm. This framework can be adapted for field cloud measurements based on the cloud conditions of interest. TE for cloud droplets under flow conditions at which ∼99% of the unactivated submicron particles were removed was substantially lower between 8 and 16% than for supermicron dry particles (∼30 to 40% for 3 µm polystyrene latex spheres). In addition, we conducted a comparison of the performances of three similar PCVI units to assess repeatability for dry aerosols and cloud droplets. All three PCVIs performed similarly in rejecting submicron particles smaller than the desired cutoff diameter. One of the units showed lower TEs due to a misalignment of the internal orifice. We discuss a procedure that improved alignment and performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

High magnetic field response of superconductivity dome in quantum artificial high−⁢𝑇 𝐶 superlattices with variable geometry

It is known that cuprate artificial high-𝑇 𝐶 superlattices (AHTS) with period 𝑑, composed of quantum wells confining interface space charge in stoichiometric Mott insulator layers (𝑆), with thickness 𝐿, at the interface with overdoped normal metallic cuprate layers (𝑁) show a superconducting dome by tuning the geometric 𝐿 over 𝑑 ratio of the SNSN superlattice with the top predicted by quantum material design engineering quantum size effects. Here we report high-field magnetotransport measurements up to 41 Tesla of AHTS across the entire superconducting dome. The results show the universal upward-concave behavior of the temperature-dependent upper critical magnetic field in low-𝑇 𝐶 samples at the rising edge and drop edge of the dome, providing strong evidence consistent with two-band superconductivity in agreement with multigap theory used for quantum design of the SNSN superlattices. The measured superconducting coherence length demonstrates that atomic-scale engineering controls not only the critical temperature but also the intrinsic pair size at Fano-Feshbach resonances physics paving the way toward next-generation quantum devices and shedding light on unconventional superconductivity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Building Performance Standards and Energy Code Alignment - Technical Brief

Building energy codes focus on building design, construction and renovation and have significantly increased building efficiency since the first national energy code was published in 1975. Most jurisdictions have energy codes based on ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 (hereto referred to as Standard 90.1) and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Compliance options available in these model energy codes include a prescriptive path, whole building performance paths – including IECC Total Building Performance (TBP), Standard 90.1 Energy Cost Budget (ECB) method and Performance Rating Method (PRM) – and system performance paths for envelope and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems. Building performance standard (BPS) policies are an emerging policy tool used by jurisdictions to reduce the operational energy use or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the existing commercial building stock. BPS policies vary widely between jurisdictions and are tailored to each location’s climate and energy goals. Intuitively, projects that met a recent edition of the energy code should comply with the BPS targets. However, some new buildings may struggle with meeting the BPS for the following reasons: 1. Energy codes focus on the design of the building and its projected ability to perform efficiently, while BPS compliance is dependent on the actual ongoing performance of the building, considering variables like occupancy, operation, and maintenance. 2. There are significant differences in the methodologies used to determine BPS compliance versus code compliance, including how each handles compliance metrics, handling of building amenities, and renewable energy generation. 3. The prescriptive compliance path in the energy code is based on performance of individual building components, as opposed to the performance compliance path which accounts for holistic building design strategies and interdependent building systems. This can result in a significant variability in post-occupancy performance for buildings built using the prescriptive path. Designs on the lower end of the permitted efficiency range may struggle with meeting the BPS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of New Technology Considering the Trade-Offs Between Operational Benefits and Risks: A Case Study of Dynamic Line Rating

Electric grid operators are adept at handling complexity and uncertainty. However, with increasing introduction of renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and more frequent severe weather events, operators will experience new workload and challenging decision scenarios. Here, this paper quantifies risks and benefits from an operator's perspective of introducing weather based forecast Dynamic Line Ratings (DLR) using variable wind conditions in addition to ambient temperature to relieve transmission congestion and facilitating more offshore wind (OSW). A concept of operations (CONOPS) applied to a forecast DLR implementation and its integration with OSW is defined. A method for evaluating tradeoffs of derating to make the rating more conservative but decreasing the benefit was developed and applied to a case study for two existing overhead transmission lines on Long Island, New York. The CONOPS uses historical day-ahead and hour-ahead High Resolution Rapid Refresh weather forecasts and weather station data to support planning and real-time operations. The analysis determines the risk of downgrades in real-time operational rating compared to the forecast and quantifies the frequency and severity of last-minute downgrades. The risk is compared against the benefits in increased capacity to provide insights on the additional amount of uncertainty DLR and OSW will add to the operator's workload.

17 WIND ENERGY↗